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Research Research Team
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May 2020 Latest Research & Analysis
Monthly Overview
5 May by the numbers
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5 May by the numbers
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Value Settled
Total adjusted value settled, which is a proxy for economic through-
put, saw an increase of 20.7% in May and saw a 10-month high.
The average daily value settled on Bitcoin increased from $1.75
billion to $2.25 billion. For Ethereum, the value settled jumped from
$1.49 billion to $1.66 billion.
Source:
Coin Metrics,
The Block
Source:
Coin Metrics,
The Block
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6 May by the numbers
Stablecoins
In May, the stablecoin supply grew from $9.6 billion to $11 billion.
It’s not immediately clear whether the new supply comes from new
demand or whether it is existing money that was already on ex-
changes and is now being converted into stablecoins.
Source:
Coin Metrics,
The Block
Source:
Coin Metrics,
The Block
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7 May by the numbers
Source:
Coin Metrics,
The Block
Miner Revenue
The third in the Bitcoin’s history took place on May 11 and the min-
ing reward was subsequently reduced from 12.5 BTC per block to
6.25. Despite the halving, miners generated $366.4 million in revenue
in May, representing a month-over-month decrease of only 11%.
Source:
Coin Metrics,
The Block
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8 May by the numbers
Spot Exchanges
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9 May by the numbers
Source: CryptoCompare,
CoinGecko, The Block
Source: CryptoCompare,
CoinGecko, The Block
Exchange Traffic
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10 May by the numbers
Source: Similarweb
Source: Similarweb
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11 May by the numbers
GBTC
The daily average volume of GBTC, a closed-end fund that invests
exclusively in bitcoin, saw an eye-whopping growth of 86% in May.
This marks a 10-month high.
Futures
Bitcoin futures reached a peak of $5.35 billion on February 14,
which was quickly followed by a sudden decline to less than $2
billion. Since then, the open interest has been recovering gradually
and reached $3.54 billion by the end of May.
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12 May by the numbers
The monthly volume of Bitcoin futures reached yearly highs in May,
which came down to about $558 billion.
The ratio between spot volume and futures volume has increased
from less than 2.3 to more than 5 now, which indicates that the fu-
tures volume is growing faster relative to spot volume.
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13 May by the numbers
With about 23.4% of the aggregated open interest, OKEx holds the
lead as the largest bitcoin futures exchange. BitMEX, which was
overtaken by OKEx in March, now has 22.5% of the total aggregat-
ed open interest, followed by Huobi (15.2%) and CME (11.9%).
Source:
Skew,
The Block
Source:
Skew,
The Block
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14 May by the numbers
Options
Aggregated open interest for Bitcoin options reached a new all-time
by the end of May — a bout $1.15 billion. Deribit continues to mo-
nopolize Bitcoin options, with 77% of the aggregated open interest.
The exchange is followed by CME, which added $150 million of
open interest in the last month.
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May 2020 Latest Research & Analysis
Macro
16 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
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16 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
VIEW ONLINE The evolution of digital asset derivatives
It’s worth emphasizing that historically, the bulk of the product in-
novation within digital asset derivatives has happened among the
offshore, non-regulated pure-play crypto exchanges, with BitMEX’s
creation of the perpetual serving as the prime starting point.
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17 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
in cryptocurrency. They also operate without clearinghouses in the
traditional sense, with the exchanges themselves providing that
function by way of automatically liquidating posted collateral – sim-
ilar to that of a margin call.
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18 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
capital. For many of these investors, the counterparty risks of trad-
ing on these offshore non-regulated crypto exchanges, or engaging
with non-custodial contracts with opaque risks and inability to offer
proper KYC/AML protections, are still too high.
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19 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
Market Size
Similar to the equity markets in the late 1990s and early 2000s,
liquidity across digital asset derivatives remains quite fragmented
and primarily within offshore non-regulated exchanges.
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20 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
Similar to bitcoin futures, the lion’s share of volume and open inter-
est among bitcoin options resides within non-regulated products.
While CME Group and ICE’s Bakkt recently launched CFTC regu-
lated bitcoin option products, non-regulated exchange Deribit con-
tinues to own the market with more 85% of total the aggregated
open interest as of April.
Since the initial launch of CBOE and CME bitcoin futures in De-
cember of 2017, there have only been a handful of other exchang-
es that have received CFTC approval to offer bitcoin futures and
options products. This list includes Intercontinental Exchange’s
Bakkt, ErisX, LedgerX and, as of last month, Bitnomial. Outside of
bitcoin-specific products, ErisX announced last week that it would
launch physically-settled Ether futures contracts – a first of its kind
in the U.S.
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21 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
interest <2% of CME bitcoin futures OI), CME Group’s product has
become the clear winner to date.
It’s previously been reported that Goldman has cleared CME bit-
coin futures for clients. Other banks, like Morgan Stanley, have
eyed more varied swap contracts, allowing clients to expand out-
side of one-size-fits-all standard 5 bitcoin per contract available
at CME. Considering that CME Clearing has 68 clearing member
firms, representing some of the more recognized and well-capi-
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22 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
talized financial institutions in the world, this network likely aided
CME’s ability to bring on key clearing partners for the bitcoin product.
fig.7
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23 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
Putting The Early Success of CME Bitcoin Products In Context
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24 Institutional Digital Asset Derivatives Markets
uct in its early days in terms of total inflation-adjusted value of
volume, as well as the total notional value of open interest relative
to the total value of the underlying spot supply.
Within one year of CME launching its gold bullion futures in 1974,
volume in March of 1975 was ~$52.5 million. Three years later in
1977, gold futures volumes reached a record ~$233 million in no-
tional value (13,712 contracts, at 100 troy ounces per contract, per
an ounce of gold price of $159).
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25 An analysis of the value transferred in Tether
VIEW ONLINE
The same week that the total value of stablecoins crossed $10 bil-
lion, Visa CEO Alfred Kelly publicly acknowledged that digital cur-
rency backed by fiat is a real emerging payment technology – and
one that’s additive to the payment ecosystem.
In this piece, we examine Tether and review the value transfer tak-
ing place across each of the networks it is hosted on (Omni, Ethe-
reum, Tron).
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26 An analysis of the value transferred in Tether
Value settled on Tether (Q/Q)
At the beginning of 2019, Omni was virtually the sole network that
Tether transactions were taking place, accounting for 98% of the
value transferred in Q1 ‘19. Omni’s dominance declined over the
subsequent quarters, and by the third quarter of 2019, Ethereum
had overtaken Omni in value transferred in Tether. In the last quar-
ter (Q1 20), the value of Tether transmitted over Omni declined to
$3 billion, making up only 11% of the value for the quarter.
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27 An analysis of the value transferred in Tether
compared to $8.5 billion. The supply of Tether further reflects the
value activity for both networks held on each. On May 7, 2020, the
amount of Tether issued on Tron surpassed Omni for the first time
at $1.4 billion compared to $1.3 billion on Omni.
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28 An analysis of the value transferred in Tether
To date, the value transferred in Tether has varied considerably
on a daily basis, as can be seen in the large swings in percentage
change.
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29 An analysis of the value transferred in Tether
The first week of Tether on Tron was removed due to outliers to get
a better idea of the overall trend.
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30 An analysis of the value transferred in Tether
on May 13, its 30-day moving average surpassed $20,000.
The median transaction value for Tether on Omni has relatively
been the most consistent, slightly declining from $1,004 in Q3 19 to
$884 in Q4 19 and then $877 in Q1 20; however, it has rebounded,
and the current median transaction value is $998.
In the first quarter of 2020, the median transaction value was near-
ly 0, which suggests the majority of its transactions have been of
little value. The majority of its value transferred during this quarter
was likely driven by exchanges moving large sums. Comparably,
the median Tether transaction size on Omni in Q1 20 was $877 and
$501 on Ethereum.
The different median and average sizes provide us with insight that
even though the unit of account is the same (Tether), each network
sees variations in use.
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31 Unpopular pedantic opinions, and don’t sleep on
asset-backed open finance.
VIEW ONLINE By now everyone has given their Goldman Sachs take in response
to the firm’s painfully tired use of pre-2017 arguments against bit-
coin in its hotly-anticipated client-facing call on the US Economic
Outlook & Implications of Current Policies for Inflation, Gold and
Bitcoin (can view the deck here). But here’s mine: contrary to what
the tweets and headlines will tell you, this call was not fully repre-
sentative of what “Goldman Sachs really thinks of bitcoin.”
Pedantic, sure. But I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that the
portion of the presentation dedicated to cryptocurrencies was ex-
plicitly directed as the view of Goldman’s Investment Strategic
Group, a group that sits within the wealth management arm of the
firm, and not its Global Investment Research or Global Markets
business lines. And in fairness to the two call participants that
drove 90% of the presentation and call (Jason Furman, Professor
of Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Jan Hatzius,
Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research at Gold-
man), everything before the 5 minute rushed reciting of the bitcoin
slides (updated COVID data, US economic data, card spending,
apple mobility data, mortgage applications, labor data, Goldman’s
updated Economist growth forecasts, etc.) felt quite informative
and well-researched. (fig 2) pg.19
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32 Unpopular pedantic opinions, and don’t sleep on
asset-backed open finance.
I’ve talked about this in several columns over the past few months,
but I continue to be in the camp that those cementing money print-
er go brrr => inflation here we come => and this is all great for
bitcoin still sit in the cart before the horse territory. As Goldman
points out in its deck, historically gold: 1) has not consistently
outperformed during periods of high inflation, while equities have
100% of the time, 2) gold’s correlation to core and headline infla-
tion is very unstable, fluctuating between .75 and -.55 (avg .05), 3)
and in periods of significant equity drawdowns, US treasuries and
higher-quality bonds have outperformed gold performance.
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33 Unpopular pedantic opinions, and don’t sleep on
asset-backed open finance.
One thing the industry can take solace in is the fact that ISG clear-
ly has been fielding questions and growing interest from high worth
individuals about allocating into bitcoin. Enough interest to warrant
speeding through dated half-baked slides in the last 5 minutes of
a broader research-driven discussion on the economic impacts of
COVID-19. But still, progress! After years of touting digital gold,
and hard scarce money narratives, the time has finally come for a
once in a generation event that might provide some narrative hard-
ening for this young asset class. In today’s memetic driven mar-
kets, widely perceived narratives actually places the cart properly
behind the horse.
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34 Unpopular pedantic opinions, and don’t sleep on
asset-backed open finance.
While only pilots, the launch of Centrifuge seems to paint a path to
where Open Finance lending protocols could one day be used for
all sorts of asset-based, and structured product lending functions.
Hot take, but this feels more innovative and actually useful than
say 50% leverage on ether holdings that the current non-custodial
lending systems offer.
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35 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
VIEW ONLINE
• Oracles that provide price data to the blockchain are the corner-
stone of most DeFi projects
• Incorrect oracle designs can lead to the loss of user funds, as
was the case with the second bZx attack
• Among the main DeFi protocols, Maker has the most decentral-
ized oracle system, on which dYdX relies, whereas Compound
uses a centralized feed
Oracle Architecture
Oracles are more important for DeFi projects that offer lending,
margin trading, and derivative services. “The oracle” refers to an
entire system consisting of:
• The oracle smart contract, allowing the end-user to take the re-
quired data from it;
• Feeds/reporters that supply data to the oracle’s smart contract;
• The sources from which feeds collect data.
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36 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
gated to the median value. Many projects at the beginning of their
existence opt to keep a centralized feed with the prospect of transi-
tioning to a decentralized network in the future.
The oracle smart contract, in turn, is a source of data for the DeFi
protocol. Aggregation of data from feeds as well as storage of the
current value occurs in the smart contract. Smart contract functions
may also include various additional protocol protection measures
against possible attacks. Today, the most common measures are
sanity checks and time delays.
The design errors of at least two oracles have already posed a risk
to the user funds. Past incidents include the Synthetix KRW oracle
incident and the second bZx attack.
In the first case, only two APIs were used to obtain the KRW price.
An error occurred in one of the APIs led to an increase in the
KRW price as well as in the profit of one of the bots to more than
$1 billion. If the bot owner had not agreed to cancel the deal, all
the profit earned would have been distributed as debt to all Synth
minters. This problem would not be possible if more sources were
used.
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37 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
The second case refers to an attempt to over-decentralize a project
— in this instance, bZx used the Kyber Network as an oracle.
It is also quite common that projects use data from oracle provid-
ers. Oracle providers allow access to required data by creating
incentivization to increase the number of feeds. However, a large
number of feeds does not eliminate the problem of malicious activi-
ty. It makes sense to use a kind of consensus algorithm – the same
as in blockchains – to make the system work as intended. Of the
oracle providers, Chainlink is the most commonly used (it will be
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38 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
used by Synthetix and bZx), although Tellor and Band Protocol are
also present.
SCD Maker
SCD Maker – set to ride off into the sunset on May 12 – was one
of the first to create a stable system of oracles. The correct proto-
col operation requires ETH (to calculate the collateral-to-debt ratio
and to trigger liquidations) as well as MKR (to charge Stability Fee)
prices. Once prices were collected from the source, the median
value was applied to them. For ETH, the price sources are ETH/
USD pairs from Coinbase Pro, Bitstamp, Gemini, and Kraken. MKR
uses MKR/ETH pairs from Bitfinex, Kyber, and OKEx, and each
price is multiplied by the median ETH/USD to obtain the price in
the USD.
Source: mkr.tools
Each feed sends its own price to the contract, causing an update
in the oracle’s smart contract. Feeds update prices if more than six
hours have passed since the last dispatch or the current price has
changed by 1%. For the oracle contract — medianizer — to accept
the price, the feed should be a part of its whitelist.
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39 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
Currently, there are 14 ETH and 5 MKR feeds in the whitelists. For
the medianizer price to be considered accurate, it is necessary to
achieve a quorum: at least 7 (for ETH) or 3 (for MKR) feeds must
have the last update of the price no later than 6 hours. In addition,
the MKR price is not taken directly from the medianizer, but from
the OSM contract. This contract receives the medianaizer price
with a delay of one hour, giving MKR holders time to react to a pos-
sible vulnerability in the protocol before the price is updated.
MCD Maker
Launched on November 18, the updated version of Maker stores
the prices of all collateral (ETH, BAT, USDC, BTC) in USD, as well
as the recently added ETH/BTC price. The MKR price is no longer
needed, because the Stability Fee is now paid in DAI and MKR is
destroyed through a Flap auction. The price sources for oracles are
as follows:
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40 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
Apparently, one of the organizations got two feeds; ergo, the total
number of feeds reached 20. Moreover, MCD opened up opportu-
nities for monetization of the oracle. The data that the feeds supply
to the medianizer are available only for addresses in the whitelist One
of the last executive votes added Set Protocol and dYdX to the oracle
BTC/USD whitelist, and tBTC was added to the ETH/BTC whitelist.
Compound
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41 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
A key feature of Compound is that asset prices are denominated
in ETH. The feed is completely centralized and sends all prices to
one oracle contract. The prices of stablecoins SAI, DAI, USDT and
USDC are calculated using Maker’s oracle for ETH/USD. Sources
for BAT, REP, ZRX, WBTC are Coinbase Pro, Bittrex, Poloniex, and
Binance.
The feed sends new prices to the oracle when they change by
1%. If the price value is altered by more than 10% within an hour,
another transaction should be sent manually, which will allow
the price to go beyond this limit. For this purpose, an additional
“Chad” account stored in a cold wallet is used. This account cannot
change the price of the oracle itself but changes the price used as
the point to set pricing limits.
dYdX
The price of ETH is taken from the Maker SCD medianizer. The
USDC price is hardcoded at $1. The DAI price is equal to the me-
dian between $1, the Oasis mid-price of 0.01 WETH of depth on
each market side, and the price from the Uniswap of the WETH/DAI
pool. As Uniswap and Oasis trade WETH/DAI, the price is first con-
verted to DAI/USD with ETH/USD from SCD Maker medianizer and
is then used to establish a median DAI price. The DAI price update
is called manually by dYdX to prevent DEX manipulations.
Together with calling the price update, dYdX sends the boundar-
ies within which the received price should be nested in order to be
updated.
The recently launched perpetual BTC contract will take the price
from the BTC/USD medianizer of MCD Maker. Instead of creating
its own oracle system, dYdX opted to use the existing one.
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42 Oracles: a key element of DeFi
In 2019, amid growing interest in DeFi, there was demand for pric-
es of assets outside the blockchain ecosystem. Key events for the
oracle sector are:
At the same time, the trust in on-chain oracles like Kyber Network
and Uniswap has weakened this year while Maker has slowly mor-
phed from a data consumer to an oracle provider.
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43 Can DeFi oracles be better?
VIEW ONLINE
Firstly, for all the feeds’ work to be reflected on-chain, a lot trans-
actions have be sent, which creates significant levels of blockchain
congestion. One might recall Black Thursday when, because of a
sharp drop in ETH and BTC prices, gas prices rose significantly in
part because of Chainlink oracles’ need to provide updates. Chain-
link oracles were consuming ~20% of gas in Ethereum.
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44 Can DeFi oracles be better?
• Blockchain agnosticism;
• Use of TEE (Intel SGX) for higher security;
• Reputation system and staking requirements for a possible pen-
alty;
• Off-chain aggregation similar to the one in MCD Maker.
Let’s take a closer look at how the oracle works for the ETH/USD
pair in the terms defined in the previous article.
Each feed, for a certain time, should send the requested data to
the medianizer contract. The data sources for each feed depend
on the external adapters used, e.g. CoinMarketCap or CryptoCom-
pare.
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45 Can DeFi oracles be better?
developed for more complex actions. Currently, there are about 65
such adapters, most of which are written by the Chainlink team
fig.2
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46 Can DeFi oracles be better?
Chainlink has yet to implement all that’s written in the white paper
and create a secure network of oracles. At the moment, the proj-
ect’s ecosystem would also not be hindered by a larger number of
adapters and decentralization of nodes among other participants in
the crypto community.
First, the price from the previous block will be used (the price from
the current block is used in v1). This effectively increases the cost
of manipulation – as the attacker’s deal must be the last in the pre-
vious block – and also renders a flash loan attack pointless.
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47 Can DeFi oracles be better?
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48 Can DeFi oracles be better?
Time to vote
Another type of oracle design is one that uses voting to obtain
blockchain data. This approach draws heavily on game theory
mechanisms and is primarily used in prediction markets like Augur.
When 2.5% of the total REP takes part in the dispute, a fork occurs
inside the protocol. Within 60 days, each REP holder must choose
what result they consider to be true. To that end, they ‘transfer’
their tokens into the new version of Augur where the market’s out-
come chosen is canonical. Both reporters and REP holders can
lose the value of their tokens, as the version of Augur with “their”
result is unlikely to be used by other participants.
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49 Can DeFi oracles be better?
UMA
The UMA Protocol’s creators have also arrived at the use of game
theory and decided to update DeFi’s approach to the oracle prob-
lem through Data Verification Mechanism (DVM).
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50 Can DeFi oracles be better?
Subsequently, DVM uses the consensus of the UMA token holders
to find out the price at the time of liquidation. For the majority of
those who gave the same answer, new tokens are minted after the
voting period (2-4 days).
What we have
The federated model for oracles is now ubiquitous in the most ma-
ture DeFi protocols. It is widely used mainly because of the ease
in its implementation (especially in the case of a single feed) and
because it has been used in centralized services for a long time.
Oracle providers are simply working on additional security mecha-
nisms while mainly relying on the same model.
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May 2020 Latest Research & Analysis
Projects
52 $22 million: dYdX’s perpetual bitcoin swap market
reports a volume bump days after launching
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52 $22 million: dYdX’s perpetual bitcoin swap market
reports a volume bump days after launching
VIEW ONLINE
• Less than a week after its official launch, dYdX’s bitcoin perpet-
ual swap market has processed over $22.9m in volume and now
counts over 55 bitcoin in open interest
• The perpetual swap market contract now controls over $1.2m
USDC, roughly 0.17% of circulating supply
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53 $22 million: dYdX’s perpetual bitcoin swap market
reports a volume bump days after launching
There is now over $1.2m worth of USDC collateral in dYdX’s per-
petual swap contract, with the largest daily inflow of $328,000
arriving on May 13. Collateral for dYdX’s perpetual swap contract
market now represents over 0.17% of the circulating USDC supply.
While USDC continues to be used for cross-exchange flows pri-
marily, we should expect to see a considerable portion increasingly
used as derivative margin over the coming months.
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54 $22 million: dYdX’s perpetual bitcoin swap market
reports a volume bump days after launching
That dYdX’s perpetual swap market has been able to achieve such
high volume with so few active users suggests participation from a
more professional class of traders. On May 19, the average volume
per trader exceeded $254,000.
At $7,285 on May 19, the average volume per trade similarly ex-
ceeded Uniswap by roughly an order of magnitude, although the
figures are roughly aligned with average volume per trade in dYdX’s
spot margin markets. We should not be surprised that volume per user
and volume per trade figures exceed non-margin exchanges; the
ability to leverage long up to 10x naturally elevates notional volumes.
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55 $22 million: dYdX’s perpetual bitcoin swap market
reports a volume bump days after launching
The Bitcoin perpetual swap promises to generate significant rev-
enue for dYdX. With a taker fee of 7.5 basis points and a maker
rebate of 2.5 basis points, dYdX captures 5 basis points per trade.
However, due to a promotional 50% discount on taker fees between
May 14 and May 20, dYdX’s cumulative revenue from the perpetual
swap market has lagged, climbing just over $2.8k.
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56 Uniswap: The state of the market
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Trading
Uniswap’s volumes have seen significant growth since the start of
2020: Q1 ‘20 volumes are up over 225% versus Q4 ‘19.¹
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57 Uniswap: The state of the market
DAI, USDC, and MKR markets continue to comprise a majority of
trading activity. In April, the three assets alone comprised roughly
72% of all volume.
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58 Uniswap: The state of the market
Uniswap’s monthly unique user chart shows steady positive growth.
Despite the 60% drop in volume versus March, April 2020 saw a
record 15,280 unique addresses interact with the Uniswap protocol,
a 47% increase versus January.
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59 Uniswap: The state of the market
The average number of trades per user per month has remained
sternly within the 10-20 range since January ‘19.
With an average volume per trade of $651.79 across the first four
months of 2020, we again see evidence that Uniswap’s primary
audience is among an amateur retail audience. By contrast, limit
order book-based margin trading exchange, dYdX, sees an average
volume per trade of roughly $5,000.
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60 Uniswap: The state of the market
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61 Uniswap: The state of the market
Liquidity provision
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62 Uniswap: The state of the market
The net inflow of liquidity per month picked up to over $6m in April
after two successive negative months in February and March. Jan-
uary’s $13.7m worth of inflows singlehandedly exceeded the com-
bined net inflows across 2019.² February’s $10m in outflows may
have been motivated by volatility in the cryptocurrency markets,
with Ether alone climbing over 60%.
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63 Uniswap: The state of the market
This departs from traditional market-making operations, where
firms typically participate across multiple markets simultaneous-
ly. The concentration of portfolios may have implications for the
growth of Balancer, an alternative constant-function AMM that of-
fers liquidity providers the ability to simultaneously provide multiple
forms of capital with arbitrary weightings.
It is worth noting that imBTC’s 30-day fee figures are largely in-
flated by a recent exploit of Uniswap’s imBTC pool.
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64 Uniswap: The state of the market
The DAI market currently commands the largest number of unique
LPs. Curiously, however, USDC – which has the second most liquid
pool ($5.9m) and the most volume over the past 30 days – has just
342 unique LPs. REP also stands out as an outlier with 109 unique
LPs despite supporting a liquidity pool of over $5.5m.
Of the top 10 liquidity pools, REP and SNX pools are the least
distributed, with the largest LP holding 94.09% and 67.64% of
liquidity, respectively. While large individual LPs can be useful in
bootstrapping initial market liquidity, it is important that liquidity
distributions normalize over time in order to mitigate single points
of liquidity failure.
Source: The Block,
Dune Analytics
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65 Atomic swaps and CoinSwaps: safe and
private asset exchange
VIEW ONLINE
Fair trade
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66 Atomic swaps and CoinSwaps: safe and
private asset exchange
locked contract (HTLC). This is a type of smart contract that sends
funds to one address if a secret is revealed within a certain window
of time, and otherwise sends the funds to another address. This
construction involves two parties, an initiator and a participant.
HTLC-based swaps are most frequently used to exchange assets
across blockchains.
In the optimistic case, then, the initiator simply redeems the funds
on the second blockchain using the secret. In doing so, they reveal
the secret to everyone including the participant. The participant
then uses the secret to redeem the funds on the first blockchain,
and the exchange is completed.
In the pessimistic case, the initiator does not reveal the secret.
Both parties are refunded when the timelocks expire. Critically,
even if one party reneges on their side of the exchange, there is no
way for them to take the others’ funds.
Research THEBLOCKCRYPTO.COM
67 Atomic swaps and CoinSwaps: safe and
private asset exchange
Ideally, an atomic swap performed for the sake of privacy would
look like two independent transactions. However, because the
same secret is used in this basic construction, observers can asso-
ciate the two legs of the swap, rendering them linkable. This ulti-
mately allows observers to trace the flow of funds, rendering this
construction only minimally useful to privacy-conscious users.
CoinSwaps
CoinSwaps are a type of atomic swap in which the secret is not
revealed in the optimistic case. CoinSwaps are particularly useful
in privacy applications, where they allow participants to construct a
set of steganographic transactions to exchange their coins’ histories.
In parallel, the participant also creates, but does not sign, a trans-
action to move funds to a two-of-two multisig. Both parties create
and sign another backout transaction that spends the coins from
this multisig to the initiator on revealing a key, or to the participant
after a certain amount of time.
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68 Atomic swaps and CoinSwaps: safe and
private asset exchange
Both parties then sign and broadcast the transactions that move
funds into the multisigs
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69 Atomic swaps and CoinSwaps: safe and
private asset exchange
Other variants
In addition to CoinSwaps, there are several other extensions to the
atomic swap concept.
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70 A Ponzi scheme styled after MMM is driving
Ethereum network congestion
VIEW ONLINE
The activity can be traced to MMM BSC, styled after Sergei Mavro-
di’s MMM enterprise which raised hundreds of millions of dollars in
the 1990s in return for empty promises of high-yield returns. MMM
Ponzi schemes have persisted since Mavrodi’s death, including
BSC which utilizes Paxos’ PAX USD token (Paxos, for its part, has
strongly disavowed any affiliation with the scheme).
Due to the use of multiple addresses per user, the data sets be-
low appear to be inflated: MMM’s API suggests there have been
just under 37,000 users, while the number of unique addresses
that have sent transactions to the main MMM contract totals over
280,000.
Data
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71 A Ponzi scheme styled after MMM is driving
Ethereum network congestion
Cumulative PAX USD inflows into the main MMM contract have
now exceeded $98m, with weekly inflows similarly growing week-
on-week.
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72 A Ponzi scheme styled after MMM is driving
Ethereum network congestion
inflows are wash transactions. As such, while the trend is likely
directionally correct, total inflow figures should not be taken at face
value.
Source:
The Block, Dune Analytics
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73 A Ponzi scheme styled after MMM is driving
Ethereum network congestion
Heightened demand for blockspace, largely due to MMM-related
activity, has pushed the average gas price per transaction up by
several multiples: below, we see the average gas price per transac-
tion for inbound transactions to the main MMM contract. Between
the start of January and the week beginning April 20, the average
gas price consistently remained below 5 Gwei: since then, average
gas prices have spiked up to 21.79 Gwei.
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May 2020 Latest Research & Analysis
Company
75 Bitfinex made $21M in Q1, LEO exchange
token burns suggest
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75 Bitfinex made $21M in Q1, LEO exchange
token burns suggest
VIEW ONLINE
Initially, Bitfinex only burned the revenue from trading fees, but it
eventually began adding other revenue streams — r evenue from
its IEO platform (started on July 8), revenue from margin funding
activities (started on July 14), and revenue from derivatives trading
(started on Sept. 2).
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76 Bitfinex made $21M in Q1, LEO exchange
token burns suggest
About 1.73% of the total 1 billion supply has been burnt so far. If
LEO kept getting burnt at the same pace (~53.16k a day), it would
take more than 50 years to burn the full supply.
Bitfinex’s revenues
Knowing that the total burnt amount represents 27% of revenues,
we can deduce that Bitfinex generated about $73.52 million in rev-
enue since June. If that amount was annualized, it would be ap-
proximately $82.32 million per year.
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77 Bitfinex made $21M in Q1, LEO exchange
token burns suggest
Context
In the LEO whitepaper, Bitfinex self-reported gross profits of
$333.5 million in 2017 and $418.2 million in 2018, with net profits
of $326 million in 2017 and $404 million in 2018. If the self-report-
ed financials were accurate, Bitfinex is currently generating much
less than it did in 2018.
Source: Bitfinex
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78 Bitfinex made $21M in Q1, LEO exchange
token burns suggest
Relationship to volume
Bitfinex’s revenue roughly corresponds with volume traded on the
exchange, which is an expected outcome since Bitfinex derives
most of its revenues from trading fees.
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79 Bitfinex made $21M in Q1, LEO exchange
token burns suggest
The ratio has historically trended from 0.11% to 0.15%, as seen
in the chart below. The decline in April can be explained by more
maker activity than in other months. The average fee paid by Bit-
finex’s users was likely noticeably lower in April than in March.
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80 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
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Over 20,000 wallets have been set up since February 2019, with
February 2020 the most active month by wallet creations. Officially
out of beta stage since May 18th, 2020, we should expect Argent
wallet creation activity to pick up over the coming months.
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81 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
Of the 20,000 wallets created, we see that roughly 6,000 are ac-
tive on a monthly basis. Argent’s active unique users — defined by
distinct addresses that have submitted at least one transaction per
month — is up roughly 100% year to date. For context, non-cus-
todial exchange, Uniswap, had over 15,000 unique users in the
month of April.
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82 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
As for basic transfers: since Argent’s launch in February 2019,
there have been 40% more ERC20-denominated transactions than
pure Ether transactions. This relationship is in line with the broad-
er trend of stablecoins emerging as the primary mediums of ex-
change: as previously reported, aggregate stablecoin transaction
volume surpassed ETH-denominated transaction volume for the
first time in late July 2019.
Indeed, we see below that DAI and USDC dominate Argent user
token transfer market share. While token transfer volume has de-
clined 65% since March 2020’s all-time highs, transfer volumes are
still up 19% year to date.
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83 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
However, there also appears to be strong demand for Ether expo-
sure — likely as an investment vehicle — as illustrated by Argent
user cumulative Ether balances over time. Valued at close to $3m
and growing month on month, Argent user Ether holdings rival the
~$3.5m held across various tokens.
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84 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
MakerDAO Dai Savings Rate deposits are down 93% since Febru-
ary after system governors set interest rates to 0%.
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85 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
Argent also offers users the ability to swap assets directly through
their application via an integration with non-custodial exchange
protocol, Kyber. Exchange fees may serve as a lucrative source of
future income for Argent, with fees charged to both users and li-
quidity providers, somewhat akin to the existing Robinhood model.
We predict that Argent will soon integrate an aggregator like 0x API
or 1inch in order to provide users with the best possible execution.
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86 A close look at the activity of Argent’s
20,000 wallets
While Kyber does source quotes from multiple venues and market
makers, 1inch and 0x extend their offerings to capture the best
possible price across the entire non-custodial market.
Source:
The Block,
Dune Analytics
Source:
The Block,
Dune Analytics
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87 Square offers the most profitable bitcoin
business among publicly traded U.S. companies
VIEW ONLINE Another quarter, another record level of bitcoin sales volume from
Square’s Cash App: this time the p2p payment and mobile banking
app served more than $300 million worth of bitcoin sales in the first
quarter of 2020.
It’s worth reminding that Square still doesn’t net out the cost to
acquire the bitcoin it sells to Cash App users in its reported bitcoin
revenue, instead opting to count the entire purchase value of bit-
coin as “bitcoin revenue.” Therefore, the most accurate representa-
tion of the impact of bitcoin sales on Square’s bottom-line is to look
at the gross profit, or the spread between bitcoin revenue and the
cost of bitcoin sales. As tempting as it is to say “bitcoin was 50%
of Square’s revenue!” please, I beg you, let’s not. If you’re curious,
bitcoin gross profit was ~1.25% of total company gross profit -- an
all-time high, but still practically a rounding error.
What I can get behind though is this: Square officially has the most
profitable bitcoin/digital asset business out of any publicly traded
U.S. company. Yes, the list is small, including just Silvergate and
Signature Bank’s Signet (I’m not counting Canaan’s ADR on Nas-
daq because you clearly can’t trust their numbers), but Square has
at least distanced itself from Silvergate this quarter (which makes
more money than Signet) with $6.7M in gross profit to Silvergate’s
$1.7M.
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88 Square offers the most profitable bitcoin
business among publicly traded U.S. companies
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89 Square offers the most profitable bitcoin
business among publicly traded U.S. companies
App users generated more than $30 in annualized revenue per
user, with “bitcoin actives generating 2-3x annual revenue com-
pared to other cash customers.”
Considering this growth, paired with the fact that Cash App is al-
ready the second largest peer-to-peer payment application and
digital wallet in the US, according to the latest research from ARK
Invest, the two largest outstanding questions that I keep falling
back to are: 1) could Cash App’s monthly active userbase one day
overtake Coinbase (is it already getting close?), and 2) when does
a large digital consumer banking offering consider opening up bit-
coin purchases (think Goldman Sachs’ Marcus, Chase Invest, Mor-
gan Stanley’s E*Trade -- if it happens, etc.).
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90 Square offers the most profitable bitcoin
business among publicly traded U.S. companies
On the second point, I keep falling back on the fact that Jamie Di-
mon at last year’s JPM’s investor day lamented about how Square
was able to come up with an “adjacent” business line (dongle to
process payments) that offered an opportunity to customers that
JPM could have provided, but failed to. Dimon said:
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91 Square offers the most profitable bitcoin
business among publicly traded U.S. companies
will wait to step into the game on the retail investment side.
As for the pure-play crypto exchanges, there isn’t much to worry
about from a bitcoin volume perspective -- while Cash App bit-
coin purchase volumes are now growing in line with Coinbase and
Kraken, they still are over an order of magnitude smaller than both
players. But I’m sure the full suite offering of p2p payments, stocks,
bitcoin, and a debit card make some a little envious -- for now at
least.
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92 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
VIEW ONLINE
Digital assets like bitcoin have come a long way since the early days.
The Block has mapped out a total of 115 companies across 9 dif-
ferent sub-categories. The following verticals include exchanges
(OTC desks and derivatives), liquidity providers, settlement solu-
tions, lending providers, custody providers, and other service pro-
viders (Trade Messengers, Clearing solutions, etc.).
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93 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
For readers looking for a more in-depth view of each firm, we have
provided tables at the end of the piece that highlights each compa-
ny’s services.
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94 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
To date, approximately $2.1 billion has been allocated to block-
chain firms that offer products and services to institutional clients.
However, it’s not easy to properly analyze how much of that capital
was allocated specifically for institutional side products and ser-
vices. For example, Spot Liquidity Providers have received approx-
imately $155 million in investments, but the majority are retail ex-
changes that also operate OTC desks.
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95 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
The slight increase is reflected by custody and derivative products
declining to 79% of all investment since 2018. In 2018, custody and
derivatives made up 78% of the investment and then 65% in 2019.
The Block mapped out a total of 112 investors who have made at
least one investment related to institutional products for digital assets.
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96 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
We have seen traditional financial firms gain exposure to the sec-
tor through their investment portfolios. Examples include Goldman
Sachs investing in BitGo, Visa investing in Anchorage, and Boston
Consulting Group investing in Bakkt.
Digital Currency Group (DCG) has been the most active in invest-
ing in institutional products and services. The firm has invested in
two brokerages (SFOX and Tagomi), two derivative offerings (Bit-
nomial and ErisX), two custody products (Curv and BitGo), and
Paxos, a firm that provides different services including custody and
an OTC desk.
After DCG, CMT Digital and Dragonfly Capital have both made
five investments toward institutional products and services. Two
of Dragonfly Capital’s investments have been in large institutional
players in the Asian market: lender Babel Finance and liquidity pro-
vider Amber Group.
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97 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
Asset management giant Fidelity has been very active in its in-
volvement around the institutionalization of digital assets. Aside
from operating Fidelity Digital Assets, the firm has made invest-
ments in Knox Custody, BlockFi, and ErisX. Both of its investment
arms – Avon Ventures and Devonshire Investors – have also in-
vested in the lending firm BlockFi.
The most common investment among the top ten most-active inves-
tors was Erisx, which drew in six out of the ten members of the list.
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98 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
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99 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
Research THEBLOCKCRYPTO.COM
100 Mapping the Institutional Digital Asset
Infrastructure space
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101 Examining the blockchain gaming industry
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102 Examining the blockchain gaming industry
Total Investment in Blockchain Gaming
The 18% decline between 2018 and 2019 makes the gaming indus-
try unique compared to the broader blockchain space. While gam-
ing saw a decline in 2019, the decrease was less severe than the
industry average at 57%.
A lack of later-stage deals could suggest that firms within the in-
dustry have yet to find consistent revenue streams to make them
attractive investments or the size of the initial investments were
large enough to serve the companies’ long-term time horizon.
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103 Examining the blockchain gaming industry
Investment by Category
Investments in specific games are rare with just one deal. It should
be noted, however, that some gaming studios have raised funds to
develop specific games. For example, Horizon Blockchain Games
raised $5 million in March to fund continued development for its
‘SkyWeaver’ trading card game.
The two most popular gaming studios amongst investors has been
Mythical Games ($44.5 million) and Dapper Labs ($38.3 million).
Mythical Games has brought on investors that include Avon Ven-
Research THEBLOCKCRYPTO.COM
104 Examining the blockchain gaming industry
tures (Fidelity), Fenbushi Capital, Hashed, and Galaxy Digital.
While Dapper Labs, the firm behind the viral Cryptokitties game,
has a long list of notable investors including Union Square Ven-
tures and Andreessen Horowitz.
Research THEBLOCKCRYPTO.COM
105 Examining the blockchain gaming industry
The Block has mapped out a total of 71 investors across sub-cate-
gories that include companies, accelerators, hedge funds, compa-
nies, and both traditional and crypto VCs.
Ubisoft, the game publisher behind Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry, and
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six, has become part of a Blockchain Game
Alliance. Ubisoft’s accelerator program has provided assistance to
blockchain gaming companies including Azarus, CareGame, Plane-
tarium, and Sorare.
The financial services firm Wells Fargo has entered the blockchain
gaming space with an investment in Matcherino, a platform for Es-
ports tournaments.
Xpring, the venture arm of Ripple, and the gaming firm Forte have
partnered together to create a $100 million fund that invests exclu-
sively in the blockchain gaming ecosystem.
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106 Examining the blockchain gaming industry
The most active investors in blockchain gaming have been Ani-
moca Brands, the gaming company, and Galaxy Digital, mostly
through its EOS VC fund.
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May 2020 Latest Research & Analysis
Trends
108 Charting blockchain investments during the
COVID-19 pandemic
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108 Charting blockchain investments during
the COVID-19 pandemic
VIEW ONLINE
Much of the world has been in lockdown and in many cases, still
on economic pause due to the coronavirus pandemic. The virus
continues to leave an economic and social impact on many of our
lives. We will examine the effects the virus has had on the block-
chain investment landscape and which investors, if any, have re-
mained active.
For this analysis, we have counted any funding raise from January
1st on as a raise during “COVID conditions.”
Total Investment
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109 Charting blockchain investments during
the COVID-19 pandemic
In total, $1.47 billion has been raised across 265 blockchain deals
during the COVID-19 period. These figures are slightly miscued,
however, by two mega-deals in March involving Bakkt ($300m Se-
ries B) and Binance’s acquisition of Coinmarketcap ($400 million).
These two deals alone accounted for approximately 48% of all ven-
ture funding and spending year-to-date.
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110 Charting blockchain investments during
the COVID-19 pandemic
Mergers & Acquisitions
The current economic environment has been ripe for M&A activity.
M&A made up approximately 18% of all investment deals in May.
February also was relatively high in this regard, accounting for
about 12% of all blockchain deals. These two months saw the high-
est percentage for M&A deals for 2020.
Two of the notable M&As in May revolve around the race for a
crypto prime brokerage. Coinbase acquired the brokerage Tagomi
for an amount estimated between $70 million to $100 million. Gen-
esis Trading acquired Vo1t, an institutional custodian, signaling its
push toward becoming a full-service prime brokerage.
The overall trend for investment deals has moved downward, with
consecutive declines over the past seven months. By comparison,
May 2019 saw 104 deals, whereas May 2020 saw only 44, a dif-
ference of 58%. With investments up in dollar terms over the past
month — but the number of deals still declining — this may suggest
that investors are making more concentrated bets rather than allo-
cating capital across multiple risky investments.
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111 Charting blockchain investments during
the COVID-19 pandemic
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112 Charting blockchain investments during
the COVID-19 pandemic
Blockchain Investment Deals by Region
Digital Currency Group has been the most active during this out-
break, with five investments. These investments include Horizon
Blockchain, Zabo, Lolli, Skew, and Transparent Systems. The sec-
ond most-active investors are Coinbase Ventures, Collaborative
Fund, and Pantera Capital, each with four investments of their own.
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113 Charting blockchain investments during
the COVID-19 pandemic
Citibank has been active in the blockchain space. The firm invest-
ed in Contour Network through its investment arm Citi Ventures.
Contour Network is a blockchain platform for digitizing the process
of letters of credit. The firm also invested in Komgo, a blockchain
platform for the trade and commodities finance sector.
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114 The race to become the first digital
asset full prime broker is on
VIEW ONLINE You may have noticed, but lately, The Block has been spending a
lot of time thinking about the state of digital asset infrastructure.
On the other hand, the state of digital asset infrastructure has also
never been more fragmented.
This week we got an early taste of what the end game of this con-
solidation may look like, with Genesis Global Trading moving to
acquire Vo1t, a provider of institutional custody services in the U.K.
With the acquisition, Genesis is making a bid to move one step
closer to becoming a full prime broker within the digital asset in-
dustry.
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115 The race to become the first digital
asset full prime broker is on
“The digital currency marketplace is maturing at a rapid pace. Fi-
nancial institutions — large and small — are entering the industry
every day and they want a prime broker that can be a trusted, reg-
ulated partner to help them navigate an industry that is unfamiliar
and volatile. Integrity, experience, and an unwavering commitment
to top-notch client service and operational excellence have been
trademarks of Genesis since day one.”
We’ve also seen the digital asset industry’s first U.S. public compa-
ny, Silvergate Capital, suggest that its own end game is to become
a full-service prime for the digital currency ecosystem. In March,
the CEO of Silvergate, Alan Lane, said on The Scoop that the firm
recently reapplied for a trust charter from the state of New York
with the idea that they would be able to be their own custodian.
Such a move would allow the firm to hold digital assets as collater-
al, and offer not only custody but escrow and settlement services
for the digital asset industry.
It’s clear the race to become this industry’s first true prime broker
is only going to get hotter as the months continue. Over time, the
expectation is that several of these players will find their own path
to achieving this end state as vertical consolidation across the in-
frastructure stack plays out.
Research THEBLOCKCRYPTO.COM
116 The race to become the first digital
asset full prime broker is on
their own full suite of services, likely through acquisition, to shoot
their own shot at becoming a full prime.
At the end of the day, everyone will inevitably offer these same
services. The challenge for contenders will be figuring out how to
do every service really well, while also navigating an uneasy regu-
latory environment that differs across jurisdictions and states (there
really isn’t a one legal entity structure ala a broker-dealer license
in equities that allows you to pull this offering bilaterally across the
U.S.).
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117 How much longer before payment giants
move in on the Stablecoin market?
VIEW ONLINE Gradually, then suddenly.
Focusing in on the news out of JPMorgan and Visa for the purpose
of this column, each represents an important shift in how these
firms are publicly thinking about this space, and underscores a
broader theme of validation for the industry that we’ve continued to
see materialize so far in 2020.
In regards to JPMorgan, the move is the first time the bank has
been comfortable enough to service clients within the crypto space
-- and most likely required some form of buy-in from the highest
levels of the cash management business line. And since the initial
services provided reportedly include only handling dollar-based
transactions for U.S. based customers and processing ACH depos-
its, a relatively low fee service, you have to imagine the bank views
other potential associated benefits from the relationship to surpass
the perceived risk of moving and handling cash for these “higher
risk” clients.
To that end, it’s also fitting that the CEO of Visa acknowledged fi-
at-backed digital currencies as an “emerging payments technology”
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118 How much longer before payment giants
move in on the Stablecoin market?
that “could be additive to the payments ecosystem, as opposed
to being any kind of replacement or negative,” in the same week
that the total value of stablecoins crossed the $10 billion threshold
for the first time ever. Coincidentally, the U.S. Patent and Trade-
mark Office yesterday published Visa’s application for a digital fiat
currency (submitted Nov 2019) that proposes a way to bridge the
advantages of digital currencies with those provided by traditional,
government-issued ones.
These are numbers that already matter, and it’s still very early
days. And we don’t even have Libra or DCEP up and running just
yet -- although both are indeed inching closer to the finish line.
The later also caught the attention of Alfred Kelly, with the CEO
noting at a JPMorgan conference that Visa remains engaged with
Libra and very interested in what they continue to do and how
they can be added to the payment ecosystem. Kelly also said he
thought the project is continuing to advance and is making prog-
ress by hiring Levy.
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119 How much longer before payment giants
move in on the Stablecoin market?
In my mind, the underrated trend so far in 2020 is the fact that the
payment and banking components of this market continue to pro-
fessionalize and validate itself among a broader set of legacy par-
ticipants, with this week’s news only further evidence of this trend.
Whether it’s JPMorgan now banking crypto clients, Visa acknowl-
edging the “additive” value in fiat-backed stablecoins, or Libra
bringing in a former global bank Chief Legal Officer and Under
Secretary, these headlines grab attention, and people certainly talk
-- even if it is largely confined to Zoom in a post-COVID world.
Considering how vital robust global fiat on and off-ramps are for
the adoption of bitcoin and digital assets, I’d argue this validation
was the more significant development this week, rather than a pre-
determined reduction in the supply issuance of bitcoin.
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120 The year of options and the clear winner
VIEW ONLINE Quick Take
Uses
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121 The year of options and the clear winner
moves in either direction. Selling straddles/strangles gives inves-
tors exposure to the stagnation of the underlying price.
Investors can use various options strategies to hedge the risk ex-
posure of their futures/spot positions. The so-called protective
calls/puts can be used to minimize losses or to protect unrealized
profits if the market goes in the opposite direction.
Liquidity
Platforms
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122 The year of options and the clear winner
allows traders to have a lower margin requirement and therefore
higher capital efficiency.
The winner
When it comes to options, the winning platform will be the one with
the most liquidity. And liquidity attracts more liquidity — e specially
as options see 2020’s jump in interest. Traders are naturally at-
tracted to a proven platform with the most favorable buyer/seller
features, which gives them the best chance to be successful or
most profitable. In this case, the leading platform (at least for now)
is Deribit and I’m not counting on any other exchange to overtake
them anytime soon. Just look at the volumes.
Source: skew
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123
The Block Crypto, Inc. does not provide tax, legal, investment, or
accounting advice. This material is not intended to provide, and
should not be relied on for tax, legal, investment or accounting ad-
vice. Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change.
You should consult your own tax, legal, investment, or accounting
advisors before engaging in any transaction.
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124
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