SSRN Id3611806 PDF

Zhang, J., Hayashi, Y.
: Impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector and measures as well as recommendations of policies and future
research: Analyses based on a world-wide expert survey (May 27, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3611806
Impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector and measures as

well as recommendations of policies and future research: Analyses
based on a world-wide expert survey
Junyi Zhang†, Prof., Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science
and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation,
Hiroshima University, Japan; Co-chair of WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Prof., Center for Sustainable Development and Global Smart City,
Chubu University, Japan; Chair of WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force
Abstract1
Impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the transport sector and the
corresponding policy measures have been investigated by more and more researchers and
organizations. Considering the various uncertainties and unknowns about this virus and its
impacts (especially long-term impacts), it is necessary and important to hear the opinions and
suggestions from experts in the transport and related sectors. However, to date, there is no
study from the perspective of experts in the field of transportation. This study attempts to
address this gap through a questionnaire survey of experts in the field of transportation and
other relevant fields. The survey was conducted worldwide between the end of April and late
May 2020, taking into account the need for balance between geographic regions, work
experience, and so on. In particular, experts were requested to provide their opinions and
suggestions as well as concerns via free answers. Based on extensive analyses of the survey
results, this study first reveals the realities of lockdowns, restrictions of out-of-home activities
and other physical distancing requirements, as well as modal shifts. Experts’ agreements and
disagreements to the structural questions about changes in lifestyles and society are then
discussed. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis of the free answers from experts was conducted.
The above analyses lead to a proposal for a new approach, PASS, for policymaking against
COVID-19 and future public health threats. The four elements ‘P’, ‘A’, ‘S’, and ‘S’
correspond to different levels of pandemics. Examples of the PASS-based policy measures
are summarized. Important research issues are extensively discussed.
Keywords: COVID-19, Public health pandemics, Expert survey, Transport Sector, Impacts,
Measures, Policy recommendation, PASS approach
1. Introduction
Both the number of confirmed infection cases and deaths caused by coronavirus disease 2019
(COVID-19) are still growing rapidly across the whole world. This trend has continued since
the end of March 2020. As of May 24, 20202 (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html), the total
infection cases stood at 5,335,868 and total deaths at 341,549. Only within 10 days, more than
1.0 million infection cases were newly confirmed and deaths increased by about 50,000
persons. The USA is still suffering most, but the recent increase in Brazil is also remarkable.
While some countries have shown a declining trend of both new cases and deaths, a second
†
Corresponding author: zjy@hiroshima-u.ac.jp
1
This research is a part of the activities initiated by the WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force. Hereafter, comments
from experts who participated in the survey are directly cited in italic type.
2
This date was the end of this expert survey.
1
Zhang, J., Hayashi, Y.: Impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector and measures as well as recommendations of policies and future
wave is expected. 3 A third wave may also come because the virus will remain in the
population and may resurge, if given the opportunity.4 Thus, both short-term measures and
long-term strategies are required for all countries in the world.
Similar public health crises have repeatedly occurred in recent human history,
including pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish Flu. Recent examples include the Ebola
outbreak in 2019, the Ebola haemorrhagic fever in 2014, the H1N1 influenza virus in 2009,
the 2005-2016 Zika fever, and SARS in 2003. Unfortunately, it seems that we have not learnt
lessons from the past, as evidenced by the above facts about COVID-19.
COVID-19 is expected to significantly affect the global society in various ways, from
both short-term and long-term perspectives.
For example, the impact of the current pandemic is most pronounced in megacities. If
more people are properly concerned about the high risks of infection in megacities, the current
growing trend of megacities over the whole world may slow down, and within a particular
country, the regional distribution of the population may become more balanced. For example,
in Japan, young people’s migration is the main driver for the over-concentration of the
population in the three megacity regions (Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka). The pandemic may
encourage more young people to move back to local cities. Transport policy making may
need to pay more attention to local cities within a well-coordinated regional planning
framework with industrial policymaking and other public policies, which can, for example,
attract new leading industries to local cities.
The current pandemic has also resulted in the rapid diffusion of various online
businesses. This trend is likely to continue and consequently more delivery-based services
will replace people’s shopping at stores and online working styles will become more popular.
Once the economy is re-opened, a rapid growth of automation may also be expected. Such
trends mean that not only transportation systems, but also our life-styles as well as our
economies will become much “smarter”. It is worth exploring whether the development of a
“smart” society will help transport systems and services to work in a more sustainable way.
At the same time, physical distancing practices may encourage more people to rely on
cars in their daily lives. It would then be natural to expect an increase in traffic accidents,
especially for young people, assuming that no policy interventions are made. Just-in-time
requirements for deliveries coming from growing online businesses may induce traffic
accidents, too. More research efforts are required to clarify these potential effects.
According to IEA, the drop in energy demand (including transport energy demand)
during the COVID-19 pandemic may result in a record annual decline in carbon emissions of
almost 8%.5 On the other hand, a third of the global population has to stay at home because
of the lockdown.6 A continuous observation by the Renewable Energy World with respect to
113 homes in Austin, Texas (79 with solar and 34 without solar: 50 having Level 2 Electric
Vehicle, or EV, chargers) found a maximum 20% increase in residential energy consumption
in March 2020, in comparison with previous months of March (since 2017). In contrast, EV
charging dropped dramatically. After the pandemic, a ‘new normal’ is anticipated, which is
expected to be accompanied by dramatic changes in people’s lifestyles. The current
experience with more blue skies may trigger people’s pro-environmental attitudes. If this is
the case, energy consumption from both in-home and out-of-home activities will decrease. It
3
https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/11/europe-warned-of-second-waves-of-covid-19 [Assessed on May 12,
2020]
4
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/anthony-fauci-no-scientific-evidence-the-coronavirus
-was-made-in-a-chinese-lab-cvd/ [Assessed on May 12, 2020] Here, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House
coronavirus response coordinator, was interviewed.
5
https://www.iea.org/news/global-energy-demand-to-plunge-this-year-as-a-result-of-the-biggest-shock-since-
the-second-world-war [Assessed on May 2, 2020]
6
https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-on-lockdown-coronavirus-italy-2020-3 [Assessed on May 2, 2020]
2
is still to be seen, however, whether such dramatically changed lifestyles will result in more
or less energy consumption, either in-home or out-of-home.
Because of long stays at home, people have been advised via various channels about
how to keep healthy, especially how to do physical exercise at home and eat in a healthy way.
And there seem to be more and more people following instructions about healthy lifestyles.
Related to travel behavior, active travel has been attracting more and more attention, while an
increase in car dependency is expected to occur at the same time. Thus, it is unclear whether
people’s health conditions can be improved via active travel or not. This needs more research.
For some people, long periods at home during the COVID-19 pandemic has brought
about a lot of stress. Such stress may be released suddenly after the pandemic is over, in the
form of travel and tourism for relaxation. On the other hand, physical distancing practices
may continue for a while, even after the pandemic is announced to be over. Such long-lasting
practices may change people’s social networking styles remarkably: face-to-face
communications have been dramatically reduced. Related to travel behavior, the expected
increase of online social networking will be beneficial in terms of a reduction of transport
demand. Thus, there is a trade-off relationship between time use and social networking.
More online working and flexible working arrangements are expected. This will allow
people to work at home and at the same time to take care of children, without seriously
affecting their work and fears of virus infection during travel and at workplaces. This will also
help to substantially reduce the daily peak-hour congestion in cities.
Transportation plays extremely important roles in sustainable development. The
current COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the various roles of transport, again. Because of
lockdowns, restrictions on out-of-home activities, and other physical distancing requirements,
many cities in the world have seen air pollution drop, bringing back blue skies and cleaner air.
Even though this may be “unfortunately (only) short-term good news”7, it is accompanied by
significant economic damage, particularly for socially-vulnerable population groups. The
Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that the global economy will contract by 2.5%. 8 The
United Nations states that the COVID-19 pandemic affects low-income people, older persons,
persons with disabilities, youth, and indigenous peoples.9 Putting these negative impacts
aside, this is the first time in human history that we can empirically prove at the global level
that behavioral changes in different life domains can contribute to improvements in
environmental sustainability, even though many changes are not voluntary.
Impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector and corresponding measures have been
widely investigated by more and more researchers and organizations (e.g., aviation 10,11 ,
maritime12,13, railway14,15, urban transport16,17).
7
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/23/united-nations-the-covid-19-lockdown-global-warming-emissions
-fall-is-unfortunately-only-short-term-good-news/ [Assessed on May 1, 2020]
8
https://www.eiu.com/n/covid-19-to-send-almost-all-g20-countries-into-a-recession/ [Assessed on May 1,
2020]
9
https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/everyone-included-covid-19.html [Assessed on May 1, 2020]
10
https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Pages/Economic-Impacts-of-COVID-19.aspx [Assessed on May 20, 2020]
11
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-04-24-01/ [Assessed on May 20, 2020]
12
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-shipping [Assessed
on May 20, 2020]
13
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/how-to-build-a-bluer-ocean-economy-after-cobid-19/ [Assessed on
May 20, 2020]
14
https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/article/98741/covid19-european-rail-supply-industry/ [Assessed on
May 20, 2020]
15
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/covid-19-impact-36-drop-in-railways-cargo-in-
early-april/article31407380.ece# [Assessed on May 20, 2020]
16
https://eit.europa.eu/news-events/news/covid-19-what-happening-area-urban-mobility [Assessed on May 20,
2020]
17
https://www.eiturbanmobility.eu/covid-19-what-is-happening-in-the-area-of-urban-mobility/ [Assessed on
May 20, 2020]
3
All of the above concerns need to be better addressed in a scientific way. Considering
the existence of various uncertainties and unknowns about this virus, particularly those about
its impacts, it is necessary and important to hear the opinions and suggestions of experts in the
transport and related sectors. However, there is no study to date from the perspective of
experts in the field of transportation. Therefore, this study makes an initial attempt through
the implementation of a world-wide questionnaire survey of experts in the field of
transportation and other relevant research fields. The survey was implemented between the
end of April and late May, 2020. More specifically, the survey aims to investigate the
following contents related to the transport sector:
[1] Impacts: to investigate the impacts of COVID-19
[2] Preparedness: how our society had prepared for such a pandemic
[3] During-pandemic measures: what measures are being taken by our society to fight against
this pandemic
[4] After-pandemic recovery measures: to suggest what our society should do after this
pandemic
[5] Long-term strategies: to explore how to generalize findings from the above actions to
tackle other public health threats.
In the remaining part of this article, the survey design and contents are first described and
then data collection and then profiles of experts participating in the survey are explained.
After these two sections, countries’ preparedness before the COVID-19 pandemic, as reported
by experts, is revealed, and measures during the pandemic, together with modal shift observed
by experts, are analyzed. Furthermore, experts’ opinions from the structured questionnaire
about long-term changes in people’s lifestyles and society are given, followed by a qualitative
analysis based on experts’ free answers. Finally, this study summarizes the findings, proposes
a PASS approach for policymaking against future public health threats, and presents examples
of policies. Future research issues are also extensively discussed.
2. SURVEY CONTENTS
The expert survey was designed to solicit views about impacts of COVID-19 on the transport
sector, how countries of the world prepared for the occurrence of such public health threats
(or pandemics), what kinds of measures were taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, how
people’s lives and our society were expected to change, how to make an effective recovery
after the pandemic, and how to address the afore-mentioned changes in the future. As for the
impacts of COVID-19, it is not possible to collect accurate, data-backed analyses based on
such a questionnaire survey. Instead of asking experts to report the impacts, which needs
careful investigation and takes a long time, experts were asked to report what kinds of
activities were being prohibited, restricted, and recommended. Experts’ opinions about the
ongoing pandemic, future changes in life and the society, and the corresponding measures are
captured by pre-specified questionnaire items, based on intensive discussions by several core
members of the WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force.
Main survey contents are shown below (for details, refer to Appendix A).
 Preparedness: the existence of guidelines and/or contingency plans for different
transport modes/facilities
 During-pandemic measures: Associated with the impacts
 Lockdown and its timings (start and end dates) of residence city/town and in the
case of lockdown, the type of restrictions being put on mobilities.
 Declaration of a state of emergency and its timings: both residence country and
4
city/town
 Activities/facilities prohibited to perform/use under the current COVID-19
pandemic in residence city/town
 Measures taken in residence city/town against COVID-19
 Recommendations to the public in your city/town against COVID-19
 Significant modal shifts in residence city/town during the pandemic
 Expected long-term changes in people’s lifestyles and the society in residence country,
caused by the influence of COVID-19
 Experts’ additional suggestions about the ongoing measures and the post-COVID-19
pandemic policies for recovery of the transport and logistics sector as well as
long-term transport/logistics policies, and/or important information sources that
experts want to share. This part was very important because experts were invited to
provide additional information about what was happening in their countries and
cities/towns, and to share opinions about future changes and measures/policies that
could not be fully reflected in the above questions.
 Finally, experts were also asked to report on their type of workplace, major research
fields, academic affiliations, duration of professional experience, and city and country
of residence countries and cities/towns.
3. Data collection and profiles of experts

This world-wide survey was initiated by the Chair and Co-chairs of the WCTRS COVID-19
Task Force. The WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society) is a platform
for the exchange of ideas among transport researchers, managers, policy makers, and
educators from all over the world, from a perspective which is multi-modal, multi-disciplinary,
and multi-sectoral. Its members come from more than 60 countries and areas. WCTRS has
various collaborations with other academic associations, international and domestic
organizations/associations across the world. The survey was implemented online and the
survey webpage was distributed to members of WCTRS and its collaborative networks.
Because of the time limitation, we collected questionnaires from 357 experts, of whom
284 provided valid answers (79.6%). It should be noted that with the exception of their place
of residence, experts were allowed to select multiple choices for other attributes. The place of
residence of the experts were China (21.5%), Europe (17.6%), Northern America (13.4%),
Japan (10.9%), India (9.9%), South Korea (6.3%), other Asian countries (11.6%), Middle East
(2.5%), Africa (2.5%), and Latin America (2.1%), and Oceania (1.8%). As for types of
workplaces, experts from universities and colleges account for 69.7%, followed by experts
from research institutes and think tanks (19.0%) and firms (14.4%), governments (11.6%),
and NGO/NPO, and international organizations, and others (7.4%). Regarding professional
experience, 38.0% of experts have worked for more than 20 years, which is the highest,
followed by 15-20 years (16.2%), 10-15 years (13.4%), 5-10 years (15.8%), and less than 5
years (16.5%). Concerning research and/or professional fields, the top five are transport
planning and policy (56.0%), passenger transport (44.4%), urban and regional planning
(31.7%), traffic management, operation and safety (30.3%) as well as transport and land use
(30.3%). Other fields include transport, climate change and environment (21.5%), transport in
developing and emerging countries (19.7%), transport economics and finance (18.3%), freight
transport and logistics (16.9%), transport infrastructure design and maintenance (9.9%),
tourism (9.2%), energy policy (5.3%), and public health (3.2%).
5
4. Preparedness
Experts reported that the percentages of cities/towns with guidelines of transport systems for
public health threats prepared before the COVID-19 pandemic are 33.5% for bus systems,
27.1% for rail transit systems, 26.8% for aviation systems, and 21.8% for taxi (Figure 1(a))..
The percentages for other transport modes/facilities are less than 15%: 13.4% for
expressways/motorways/highways, 10.9% for maritime systems for passenger transport, 9.9%
for logistics facilities, 8.5% for paratransit modes, 8.1% for maritime systems for freight
transport, and 6.7% for river/canal transport systems.
Among the experts participating in the survey, 13.9% of experts reported that none of
the above systems in their cities/towns had such guidelines, and 33.8% did not know or were
not sure about the existence of such guidelines.
Comparisons across countries/regions (Figure 1(b)(c)) found that for both guidelines
and contingency plans, China shows the highest shares for all transport modes and facilities,
followed by South Korea. Each of these two countries’ shares is much higher than other
countries/regions. They are followed by India and other Asian countries, meaning that they
are higher even than Europe and USA/Canada (mainly USA). What do these shares mean?
During the COVID-19 pandemic, to date, Europe and USA have suffered more seriously than
other countries/regions. Do the higher numbers of infected cases and deaths coincide with
these lower preparation ratios of guidelines and contingency plans or are there any inherent
causalities? This is worth exploring in detail.
When the transport and logistics services are interrupted by a public health pandemic,
the daily life activities of millions of individuals are affected. Therefore, contingency planning
to respond to such disruptions is required. However, the largest share (44.7%) of experts
reported that they did not know about the existence of such contingency plans, while 31.3%
reported no such plans existed in their residence cities. The percentages of cities/towns with
such contingency plans were 21.1% for bus systems, 18.3% for rail transit systems, 14.8% for
aviation systems, 11.3% for taxi, 8.5% for expressways/motorways/highways, 8.5% for
logistics facilities, 7.7% for maritime systems for passenger transport, 4.9% for maritime
systems for freight transport, 4.2% for paratransit modes, and 3.5% for river/canal transport
systems.
In summary, there are more guidelines than contingency plans, with notable
differences across countries/regions. However, even taking the availability of transport
systems into account, the existence of guidelines and contingency plans for public health
threats are still very low. Policymakers should take such low percentages seriously and
examine why there was a lack of preparations, considering that several pandemics had already
occurred in the past. For the current COVID-19 pandemic, when some countries are suffering
from many damages (losing many valuable lives and observing rapid increases in cases), why
are other countries just waiting and watching, like watching a fire on the opposite bank of a
river? This is an era of globalization: airlines can transport infected passengers from one side
of the world to the other, within half a day. Even with no guidelines or contingency plans, the
developed countries could have been more prepared given current advanced technologies.
Politicians should spend more time learning lessons from the past and from each other, rather
than complaining or blaming. They could urge and assist policymakers in different sectors to
take more effective measures. The current crisis has shown that time is invaluable for saving
lives.
6
River/canal transport system 3.5%

6.7%
Maritime system: Freight 4.9%

8.1%
Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc. 4.2%

8.5%
Logistics facilities 8.5%

9.9%
Maritime system: Passenger 7.7%

10.9%
Expressway, motorway, highway 8.5%

13.4%
Taxis 11.3%
21.8%
Aviation system 14.8%

26.8%
Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car) 18.3%

27.1%
No guidelines/plans for the above systems 31.3%

32.4%
Bus system 21.1%

33.5%
Do not know or not sure 44.7%

33.8%
Contingency plan Guideline
(a) Guidelines and contingency plans: Overall comparisons
River/canal transport system
Maritime system: Freight
Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc.
Logistics facilities
Maritime system: Passenger
Expressway, motorway, highway
Taxis
Aviation system
Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car)
No guidelines for the above systems
Bus system
Do not know or not sure
0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0%

Others (25) South Korea (18) India (28) Japan (31)
Other Asia (33) USA/Canada (38) Europe (50) China (61)
(b) Guidelines: Comparisons across countries/regions
7
River/canal transport system
Maritime system: Freight
Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc.
Logistics facilities
Maritime system: Passenger
Expressway, motorway, highway
Taxis
Aviation system
Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car)
No guidelines/plans for the above systems
Bus system
Do not know or not sure
0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0%

(c) Contingency plan: Comparisons across countries/regions
(Note: The percentages do not reflect the availability of transport systems)

Figure 1. Existence of guidelines and contingency plans against public health threats
5. Measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic

It was found that 48.6% of experts reported an ongoing lockdown in their residence
cities/towns, 17.6% reported a terminated lockdown, and the remaining answered no
lockdown. As for the declaration of a state of emergency, 56.1% reported a declaration at the
country level and 61.5% at the city/town level. Thus, the reported lockdown share is very high
(66.2%, in total). Some participating experts commented on the issue of how to define
lockdown. According to statista.com18, by the late April, a third of the world population was
on some forms of lockdown, where lockdown was defined as a situation whereby
“governments ordered their citizens to stay at home and only take a minimum of necessary
trips outside, while announcing police enforcements and/or fines for people failing to meet the
requirements”. Because different experts may not have the same understanding about
lockdown, we did not provide any definition. Instead, we asked experts to report on the
18
https://www.statista.com/chart/21240/enforced-covid-19-lockdowns-by-people-affected-per-country/
[Accessed on May 30, 2020]
8
following two sets of questions, i.e., activities restricted and prohibited.
Activities restricted during lockdown

As shown in Figure 2(a), many facilities are closed: schools (64.1%), offices (46.5%),
factories (44.7%), and stores (34.2%), while restrictions are put on people who can make a
trip (40.1%) and on trip frequency (15.1%). In 17.6% of cities/towns, no physical exercise or
walking dogs outside houses/apartments is allowed, while medical emergencies (56.3%),
medical retrieval (50.7%), and shopping of daily necessities (55.3%) are allowed. As for
country/region comparisons (Figure 2(b)), South Korea, Japan and China had much lower
shares of restricted activities, while the shares in USA/Canada, Europe, India, other Asian
countries, and other countries are extremely high. By the end of the survey period, China and
South Korea had already reduced the numbers of infections and deaths dramatically. Because
of this, their lower shares are understandable. However, Japan’s lower share is surprising,
considering a state of emergency was in place across the whole country. Paradoxically, the
USA had the highest shares of closures of offices and stores, but few limits on people who
could go outside. This troubling observation is consistent with the following comment from a
transportation consultant in the USA, who have worked for 40 years as a professional.
 In most of the US, the social distancing measures aren't really mandated or enforced - some
types of businesses are required to close, and also some parks and beaches, but otherwise
there are no rules about where people can and can't go.
Activities prohibited during COVID-19 pandemic

As displayed in Figure 3(a), by the end of the survey period, major prohibited activities are
cultural events (e.g., music concert, exhibition, festival) (in 92.8% of cities/towns), going to
school (92.8%), sports events (92.3%), amusement venues (e.g., casino, bar, night club)
(86.5%), libraries (84.5%), gastronomical services (e.g., restaurant, barbecue at park) (66.7%),
offices (54.1%), factories (43.5%), and retail shops (35.3%). In 23.7% of cities/towns,
physical exercise or walking dogs outside houses/apartments are prohibited. Compared with
the above restricted activities, the shares of prohibitions are much higher and the
country/region differences are smaller for most cases (Figure 3(b)).
Protective and supportive measures

Looking at Figure 4(a), it is found that the top three measures are 1) stay-at-home campaigns
(89.1%); 2) physical-distancing-friendly goods delivery has been widely practiced (62.7%);
and 3) physical distancing measures have been taken in public transport and their
stations/stops (e.g., bus passengers use only rear doors to avoid close contact with the driver,
bus/rail open windows during operation) (62.0%). Remarkable features from the
country/region comparisons (Figure 4(b)) are that India uses more drones and/or robots to
inform people to keep physical distances and wear masks, and other Asian countries
(excluding China, Japan, South Korea and India) use more military forces for
transporting/delivering emergency goods and medical services, and take protection measures
by tracing people’s behavioral trajectories via high tech. The shares of physical distancing
measures are higher in USA/Canada and Europe, which have the highest shares of economic
stimulus measures taken for recovery of industries. The use of high-tech measures against
COVID-19 is not popular in USA/Canada and Europe.
The above measures are followed by the following economic measures: “monetary
compensations have been paid to citizens for income reduction, medical treatment, etc.”
(56.0%), “economic stimulus measures have been taken for recovery of industries” (54.6%),
and “monetary compensations have been paid to transport and logistics firms suffering from
economic losses” (27.8%).
9
others 9.5%
limit on trip frequency 15.1%

no physical exercise or walking dogs outside
17.6%
house/apartment
closure of stores 34.2%
limit on people who can go outside 40.1%
closure of factories 44.7%
closure of offices 46.5%
medicine retrieval allowed 50.7%
shopping of daily necessities allowed 55.3%
medical emergencies allowed 56.3%
closure of schools 64.1%
(a) Average percentages for overall samples
others
limit on trip frequency

no physical exercise or walking dogs outside
house/apartment
closure of stores
limit on people who can go outside
closure of factories
closure of offices
medicine retrieval allowed
shopping of daily necessities allowed
medical emergencies allowed
closure of schools
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

(b) Average percentages by country/region
(note: the number in parenthesis after each region name refers to the number of participating experts)
Figure 2. Activities restricted during lockdown (multiple choices)
10
others 8.7%
physical exercise or walking dogs outside
23.7%
house/apartment
retail shops 35.3%
factories 43.5%
offices 54.1%
gastronomical services 66.7%
libraries 84.5%
amusements 86.5%
sports events 92.3%
schools 92.8%
cultural events 92.8%
others
physical exercise or walking dogs outside
house/apartment
retail shops
factories
offices
gastronomical services
libraries
amusements
sports events
schools
cultural events
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Figure 3. Activities prohibited during COVID-19 pandemic (multiple choices)
11
Others 5.3%
Military forces were or have been dispatched to

12.0%
transport emergency logistics materials.
Drones and/or robots have been used to inform people

13.4%
to keep social distances and wear masks, etc.
Military forces were or have been dispatched to take

15.8%
care of emergency medical services.
Monetary compensations have been paid to transport

27.8%
and logistics firms suffering from economic losses.
Protection measures for social distancing have been

46.5%
taken based on information collected by tracing…
Economic stimulus measures have been taken for

54.6%
recovery of industries.
Monetary compensations have been paid to citizens

56.0%
for income reduction, medical treatment, etc.
Physical distancing measures have been taken in

62.0%
public transport and their stations/stops (e.g., bus…
Physical-distancing-friendly goods delivery has been

62.7%
widely practiced.
Stay-at-home campaign has been propagated across

89.1%
the whole city/town.
Others
Military forces were or have been dispatched to transport

emergency logistics materials.
Drones and/or robots have been used to inform people to keep

social distances and wear masks, etc.
Military forces were or have been dispatched to take care of

emergency medical services.
Monetary compensations have been paid to transport and

logistics firms suffering from economic losses.
Protection measures for social distancing have been taken based

on information collected by tracing behavior trajectories via
mobile phone, security video camera, credit card and/or other
high-tech media.
Economic stimulus measures have been taken for recovery of

industries.
Monetary compensations have been paid to citizens for income

reduction, medical treatment, etc.
Physical distancing measures have been taken in public transport

and their stations/stops (e.g., bus passengers use only rear doors
to avoid close contact with the driver, bus/rail opens windows
during operation).
Physical-distancing-friendly goods delivery has been widely

practiced.
Stay-at-home campaign has been propagated across the whole

city/town.
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Others (25) South Korea (18) India (28) Japan (31) Other Asia (33) USA/Canada (38) Europe (50) China (61)

Figure 4. Protective and supportive measures (multiple choices)
12
Finally, 46.5% of experts reported that protection measures for physical distancing are
being taken based on information collected by tracing behavior trajectories via mobile phone,
security video camera, credit card and/or other high-tech media, while 13.4% reported that
drones and/or robots are being used to inform people to keep physical distances and wear
masks, etc. Military forces were dispatched to take care of emergency medical services in
15.8% of cities/towns and to transport emergency logistics materials in 12.0% of cities/towns.
Recommended activities during COVID-19 pandemic

As seen from Figure 5(a), the most recommended activities during COVID-19 pandemic are
online meetings (in 94.0% of cities/towns), avoiding gatherings (90.5%), telework or online
work (88.7%), online lectures (88.4%), and avoiding eating out (76.4%).
Importantly, in 54.6% of cities/towns, it is recommended to restrict passengers on
public transport (e.g., train, subway, bus), and in 22.2% of cities/towns, it is recommended to
make an online booking before using a public transport mode (e.g., train, subway, bus). These
measures are useful for keeping physical distance when using public transport, and it is
therefore important to deploy such measures in more cities.
Looking at differences across countries/regions (Figure 5(b)), “other countries” have
the largest share of restricting the number of passengers to board public transport vehicles,
followed by Europe. Considering the effectiveness as a physical distancing measure, transport
demand control should be promoted; however, for example, it is not popular in Japan, which
was still facing an increasing number of infections and deaths. One more feature is that the
share recommending physical exercise alone or with few people is the highest in Europe.
Modal shifts: Subjective observations by experts

It is observed from Figure 6(a) that as expected, a large share of modal shift from public
transport to other modes was observed based on experts’ subjective observations: the largest
shift to car (64.8%), followed by walking (42.3%), bicycle (35.6%), and motorcycle (19.7%).
Among the 22.5% of other answers (64 answers), 16 answers are about the decline of
all trips due to lockdown and other restrictions, 14 did not know or were not sure, 14 did not
observe any of the above major shifts, and 7 said that more walking and cycling were used.
Thus, while public transport should be further improved, the current crisis should be
regarded as a chance to significantly increase the share of walking and bicycle.
As seen in Figure 6(b), the shift from public transport to car in South Korea and China
is most remarkable. In contrast, European people show a more environmentally sustainable
and healthy travel style, i.e., shift from public transport to walking and bicycle. In India and
other Asian countries, the shift from public transport to motorcycle is much higher than other
countries/regions. India shows the second largest shift from public transport to walking,
following Europe.
6. Experts’ opinions on long-term changes

Here, 21 structured questions were shown to experts: 11 are about long-term changes in
lifestyles, and the remaining are about long-term changes in the society.
Long-term changes in lifestyles

As for changes in lifestyles (Figure 7(a)), 77.8% of experts fully agreed or agreed to “online
working (working at home, neighboring satellite offices, cafes, etc.) will become popular”,
followed by agreement on “the car dependence will become more obvious due to adverse
reactions to crowded public transport during the COVID-19 pandemic.” (63.0%: fully agreed
13
Others 5.6%
Make an online booking before using a

22.2%
public transport (e.g., train, subway, bus)
Restrict the passengers to get into public

54.6%
transport (e.g., train, subway, bus)
Physical exercise alone or with few people 57.0%
Avoid eating out 76.4%
Online lectures 88.4%
Telework (or online work) 88.7%
Avoid having a gathering event (e.g., park,

90.5%
square/plaza, church)
Online meetings 94.0%
Others
Make an online booking before using a public

Restrict the passengers to get into public
Physical exercise alone or with few people
Avoid eating out
Online lectures
Telework (or online work)
Avoid having a gathering event (e.g., park,

square/plaza, church)
Online meetings
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Figure 5. Recommended activities during COVID-19 pandemic (multiple choices)
14
Others 22.5%
from public transport to
19.7%
motorcycle
35.6%
bicycle
42.3%
walking
from public transport to car 64.8%
Others
from public transport to motorcycle
from public transport to bicycle
from public transport to walking
from public transport to car
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Figure 6. Modal shifts observed by experts (subjective observations) (multiple choices)
or agreed) and “online shopping will become the most popular shopping activity” (60.9%:
fully agreed or agreed). Many experts argue that online working and shopping will become
more dominant in people’s future lives.
Regarding car usage, 14.8% of experts disagreed or fully disagreed that car
dependence would increase. Such disagreement may be reasonable, for example, if people
change their activity patterns without using more cars. Related to this, two young experts who
participated in the survey made the following interesting comments.
 The car dependence will become more obvious due to adverse reactions to crowded public
transport during the COVID-19 pandemic. I think this is hard to say because it can be
balanced by a willingness to purchase more locally, in reason of new habits. There can be
interesting dynamics about new habits of consumptions (avoiding supermarkets), going back
to locally produced commodities. (young expert from a research institute/think tank in
Belgium)
15
The car dependence will become more obvious due

to adverse reactions to crowded public transport 12.3% 50.7% 22.2% 10.2% 4.6%
during the COVID-19 pandemic
Family bonds will be enhanced significantly 9.5% 37.3% 39.1% 10.9% 3.2%
The society will become more isolated due to the

progress of online activities and smart technologies 10.6% 41.2% 23.9% 20.8% 3.5%
(AI, IoT, robotics, etc.)
Online education will be a standard model of
7.7% 26.4% 32.7% 23.6% 9.5%
education
Online shopping will become the most popular

20.4% 40.5% 21.1% 14.8% 3.2%
shopping activity
More and more people will choose to live far from

2.5% 18.0% 31.3% 36.3% 12.0%
the city center
More and more people will out-migrate from

2.8% 19.4% 31.7% 31.7% 14.4%
populated cities
Working hours will become longer 4.9% 21.1% 37.0% 28.2% 8.8%
More and more people will choose a job allowing

4.2% 29.9% 34.9% 26.1% 4.9%
them to mainly work at home
Online working (working at home, neighboring

26.8% 51.1% 13.4% 5.6% 3.2%
satellite offices, cafes, etc.) will become popular
Infection risk level of a job will determine job

3.9% 32.0% 30.6% 25.0% 8.5%
choices
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Fully agree Agree Neutral Disagree Fully disagree

The car dependence will become more obvious due
to adverse reactions to crowded public transport
during the COVID-19 pandemic
Family bonds will be enhanced significantly
The society will become more isolated due to the

progress of online activities and smart technologies
(AI, IoT, robotics, etc.)
Online education will be a standard model of

education
Online shopping will become the most popular

shopping activity
More and more people will choose to live far from

the city center
More and more people will out-migrate from

populated cities
Working hours will become longer
More and more people will choose a job allowing

them to mainly work at home
Online working (working at home, neighboring

satellite offices, cafes, etc.) will become popular
Infection risk level of a job will determine job

choices
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%


Figure 7. Changes in people’s lifestyles expected by experts
16
 I expect attitudes to shift substantially; even if we can assume public transport health risks
are no greater than pre-COVID19, perceptions will shift, leaving transit more vulnerable
than ever. However, at the same time we face worsening car congestion all over the world,
and perhaps we will see greater use of ICT, but we will also likely see transport systems
become even more polarized, where those that can afford to use auto modes, and others are
forced to use other modes despite the new/perceived risks. (young expert from a university in
the USA)
Related to jobs, 35.9% of experts thought that the infection risk level of a job will
determine job choices, 34.2% expected that more and more people will choose a job allowing
to mainly work at home, and 26.1% stated that working hours will become longer.
Because of fear about virus infection, we expected a significant number of people
would out-migrate from populated cities and live far from city centers. This expectation is
supported by about 20% of experts, respectively: out-migration from populated cities (22.2%)
and living far from city centers (20.4%).
Even though many students are taking online lectures, only about 30% of experts
agree that online education will be a standard model of education.
More than 50% of experts think that the society will become more isolated due to the
progress of online activities and smart technologies (AI, IoT, robotics, etc.). Due to long stays
at home together with family members, family bonds are expected to be significantly
enhanced. This argument is supported by 46.8% of experts.
Figure 7(b) shows differences across countries/regions, in experts’ opinions about
changes in lifestyles. Based on the shares of “fully agree” and “agree”, experts who expect
that the car dependence will become more obvious had the highest share in the USA, followed
by India. Experts in India report that online shopping and working is expected to become
more preferred, but also show the highest share who believe that society will become more
isolated due to the progress of online activities and smart technologies. Online shopping will
become more popular in South Korea. Surprisingly, the popularity of online shopping in
Europe and USA/Canada as well as Japan is evaluated by experts to be lower than that in
other countries/regions, by experts. Working hours will become longer in India and other
Asian countries. Interestingly, the top three countries with the highest agreement to the
statement “infection risk level of a job will determine job choices” are Japan, India and other
Asian countries (excluding China and South Korea). A serious problem which has emerged in
Japan has been the refusal of hospitals and other medical facilities to admit patients with fever
due to concerns over infection risks,19 and there seems to be a problem needing to be paid
serious attention to choices of medical jobs in the future.20
In summary, the experts’ opinions above suggest that policymakers should make
efforts to prevent increased car dependence due to adverse reactions to public transport
services after the pandemic. Such a trend may be further strengthened by more living outside
of city centers and in suburbs. More out-migration from megacities may lead to more car
users in local cities. Even though the ever-increasing popularity of online activities will
mitigate such a pressure to some extent, policymakers should learn from historical
experiences of policy efforts against car dependence and prepare for the prevention of more
car use by further improving public transport services and promoting more active transport
(bicycle and walking). Note that the above expected trends vary across countries/regions.
Long-term changes in the society

In contrast to the responses on expected changes in lifestyles, there are more experts who
19
https://medical.nikkeibp.co.jp/leaf/mem/pub/series/taniguchi/202004/565042.html
20
https://books.j-cast.com/2020/04/06011253.html
17
support our assumed changes in society after the COVID-19 pandemic (see Figure 8(a)).
More than 60% (up to about 82%) of experts support (fully agree or agree) the following
statements about changes in society.
 (81.7%) More and more inter-city business trips for meetings will be replaced by
online meetings.
 (73.6%) Online services of government, bank, ticket purchase, etc. will become a
standard service.
 (70.1%) More and more intra-city business trips for meetings will be replaced by
online meetings.
 (66.5%) Smart technologies (e.g., AI, IoT, robotics) will be the key to detect and
sound the alarm on the occurrence of future public health threats.
 (64.8%) Significant changes will occur, within 5 years, in transport and logistics
policymaking due to lessons from COVID-19.
 (63.7%) The cost structure of the transport and logistics sector may be altered
dramatically to prepare for future public health threats.
Related to inter-city business trips, similar replacements by online meetings may also
be observed with respect to intercontinental travel, as argued by an expert from a university in
the Netherlands (with 29 years of professional experience): “Intercontinental travel will
decrease dramatically and flying will become much less popular, due to risks and price
increases.” More online meetings and other online activities, together with other changes in
lifestyles, provide us with an unprecedented opportunity to make changes toward truly
improved sustainable development.
Meanwhile, 56.3% of experts think that the intervention of governments to
transport/logistics industries will be strengthened after COVID-19. As for government
interventions, to address the impacts of COVID-19, private hospitals have been nationalized
in Spain, various modes of transport in the UK may possibly be nationalized, and France is
ready to nationalize large businesses.21
Many international organizations are arguing about the coming ‘new normal’.22,23,24,25
Related to this, we asked experts about whether social and economic systems will return to
the previous ones before COVID-19 or not. It was found that while 51.1% of experts support
this argument, 48.9% expressed their neutral opinions (22.2%) or showed a disagreement or a
full disagreement.
About 60% of experts think that the expected changes will contribute to improving
resilience and sustainability of the transport and logistics sector. Needless to say, these
changes are necessary to improve resilience and sustainability, but not sufficient, as argued by
an expert working at a firm in the USA (with 11 years of professional experience): “Resilience
and sustainability of systems will only increase if governments make an intentional effort to
increase these. If they are not careful they may more deeply entrench unsustainable practices
because they seem most effective in the short-run.”
21
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200331-covid-19-how-will-the-coronavirus-change-the-world
22
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/covid-19-three-horizons-framework/ [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
23
https://time.com/5829387/coronavirus-reopening-science/ [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
24
https://www.odi.org/blogs/16815-covid-19-we-won-t-get-back-normal-because-normal-was-problem
25
https://www.ekathimerini.com/252303/opinion/ekathimerini/comment/europe-after-covid-19-back-to-the-old-nor
mal-but-with-new-steroids [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
18
The expected changes will contribute to improving

resilience and sustainability of the transport and 6.3% 53.2% 25.4% 12.3% 2.8%
logistics sector.
Significant changes will occur, within five years, in
transport and logistics policymaking due to lessons 12.3% 52.5% 23.2% 8.1% 3.9%
from COVID-19.
The intervention of governments to
transport/logistics industries will be strengthened 7.4% 48.9% 29.2% 11.3% 3.2%
after COVID-19.
The cost structure of the transport and logistics
sector may be altered dramatically to prepare for 10.6% 53.2% 23.9% 9.5% 2.8%
future public health threats.
The induced growth of online business and

8.8% 38.7% 31.3% 18.3% 2.8%
automation will lead to more unemployment.
More and more intra-city business trips for

13.4% 56.7% 17.3% 10.2% 2.5%
meetings will be replaced by online meetings.
More and more inter-city business trips for

17.6% 64.1% 9.5%6.7% 2.1%
meetings will be replaced by online meetings.
Smart technologies (e.g., AI, IoT, robotics) will be

the key to detect and sound the alarm on the 15.5% 51.1% 23.6% 7.0% 2.8%
occurrence of future public health threats
Online services of government, bank, ticket

21.8% 51.8% 18.7% 4.9% 2.8%
purchase, etc. will become a standard service.
Social and economic systems will not return to the

11.3% 39.8% 22.2% 20.8% 6.0%
previous ones before COVID-19.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%100%

Fully agree Agree Neutral Disagree Fully disagree

The expected changes will contribute to improving
resilience and sustainability of the transport and
logistics sector.
Significant changes will occur, within five years, in
transport and logistics policymaking due to lessons
from COVID-19.
The intervention of governments to
transport/logistics industries will be strengthened
after COVID-19.
The cost structure of the transport and logistics
sector may be altered dramatically to prepare for
future public health threats.
The induced growth of online business and

automation will lead to more unemployment.
More and more intra-city business trips for meetings

will be replaced by online meetings.
More and more inter-city business trips for meetings

will be replaced by online meetings.
Smart technologies (e.g., AI, IoT, robotics) will be

the key to detect and sound the alarm on the
occurrence of future public health threats
Online services of government, bank, ticket

purchase, etc. will become a standard service.
Social and economic systems will not return to the

previous ones before COVID-19.
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%


Figure 8. Changes in our society expected by experts
19
Comparisons across countries/regions (Figure 8(b)) found obvious differences across

countries/regions. However, the differences are not as remarkable as those of changes in
lifestyles. The featured differences are summarized here. First, governmental interventions to
transport and logistics industries will become most obvious in India. This is consistent with
the observation in India that the highest share of experts are worried that the induced growth
of online business and automation will lead to more unemployment. As for online services of
government, Japan shows the highest share. This can be partially explained by the following
comments from an expert in a university of Japan, who has worked for more than 30 years.
 The unique Japanese seal stamp system will be computerized, which will enable remote work,
so the way people work may change.
Europe will see most replacements of inter-city trips by online meetings, followed by
USA/Canada; meanwhile, USA/Canada is expected to see more replacements of intra-city
trips (even higher than Europe). Other Asian countries (excluding China, Japan, South Korea,
and India) are expected to have more changes in all aspects related to our society, in the sense
that the corresponding shares are all relatively high. Using smart technologies to detect and
sound the alarm on the occurrence of future public health threats is not that welcome in
USA/Canada and Europe, but it is well welcome in India, South Korea and other Asian
countries as well as other countries. Interestingly, Japan has a similar higher agreement on use
of smart technologies as China. For the cost structure change in the transport and logistics
sector, experts in Japan and other Asian countries showed higher expectations. India and
USA/Canada are the top two countries which see significant changes in transport and logistics
policymaking due to lessons from COVID-19. Other countries show the highest agreement on
the statement “social and economic systems will not return to the previous one before
COVID-19”.
The many changes observed are expected to improve resilience and sustainability of
the transport and logistics sector, especially in other Asian countries and China, while South
Korea and USA/Canada are the two countries with the lowest expectation in this respect.
7. Experts’ opinions selected from free answers
More than 100 experts gave additional comments on potential changes in people’s lifestyles
and society, suggestions about immediate measures and the post-COVID-19 policies for the
recovery of the transport and logistics sector as well as long-term policies. These comments
and suggestions are summarized below.
Uncertainties and unknowns

Experts point out uncertainties and unknowns about the COVID-19 pandemic. These
undermine the ability of transport experts to evaluate what will happen in the transport sector.
・ The only additional thing I would say is - this is all UNCERTAIN. Who knows. Things could
return to some semblance of "normal". (local government officer in the USA: 28 years of
professional experience)
・ It is still too early to judge. (expert from a university in China: 30 years of professional
experience)
・ It is too soon to say what the longer term effects of the coronavirus will be on the transport
sector. (expert from a university in Japan: 10 years of professional experience)
・ People have short memories. London tube patronage recovered in a year after the terrorist
bombs. (expert from a university in the UK: 40 years of professional experience)
・ There's so much unknown right now. The real issue is when and whether there is a "cure" or
vaccine. I think if that happens (and it needs to happen quickly), I think things go back to
20
normal fairly fast. If it doesn't happen or if it takes a long time, then the world economy will
become a Shamble and who knows what will happen.(transport consultant in the USA: 25
years of professional experience)
For the unknowns about COVID-19, for example, the Business Insider raised “11
critical, unanswered questions about the coronavirus and COVID-19, the diseases it causes:
(1) how did the new coronavirus get into people? (2) how many people have actually gotten
COVID-19? (3) what makes the coronavirus so good at spreading? (4) what drives mortality
in people infected by the coronavirus? (5) what percent of people infected by the coronavirus
die? (6) why do young people face the least risk of dying? (7) can you get reinfected? (8) how
seasonal is the coronavirus? (9) are there any safe and effective drugs to treat COVID-19?
(10) will there be a vaccine for the coronavirus, and when? (11) what are the long-term
consequences for those who survive COVID-19?”26 For the transport sector, the unknowns
are what are the impacts of COVID-19 and how to address the impacts, from both immediate,
short-term and long-term perspectives. Treating uncertainties and unknowns is surely a
fundamental requirement for policymakers, including transport policymakers (e.g., Lyons and
Davidson, 2016; Workman et al. 2020). However, this requires cross-disciplinary
collaboration. For the current pandemic, it is necessary and important to promote
collaboration between public health, transport and supply chain experts to inform
policy-makers’ decisions about lockdowns, for example. Unfortunately, even for the current
pandemic, cross-disciplinary collaborations have not been commonly observed and poor
coordination across sectors/organizations27 has been noted.
Mindsets of policy makers

Being confronted with the above uncertainties and unknowns, experts suggest changes in
policymakers’ mindsets, as shown below.
[1] The response to Covid-19 is likely to be as long lasting and as drastic as the response to the
Spanish Flu. (local government officer in the USA: 32 years of professional experience)
[2] Lesson learned will assure a similar outbreak in the future will be handled such that mitigation
will not crash western world economies as it has this time around. (expert of MPO in the
USA: 20 years of professional experience)
[3] I see this crisis as a great opportunity to change and improve current mobility systems towards
more sustainability. Dealing right with the outcomes of this crisis could also help us to better
deal with the climate crisis. At the same time resilience of the transportation sector towards
crisis could improve. (expert from a university in Finland: 8 years of professional experience)
[4] There need to be clear, unambiguous, messages to the public. People in authority must avoid
setting bad examples of behaviour. (expert from a university in the UK: 50 years of
[5] The current lockdowns in various cities should allow policy-makers to plan and even improve
their public transport systems, but unfortunately they are probably too preoccupied with
managing the public health crisis to turn their attention to other issues. Academics could play
a part in highlighting some of these critical issues through their research activities before
things return to how they were before these lockdowns. (expert from a university in Japan: 11
years of professional experience)
[6] Supply chains need cooperation, not barriers. (young expert from a university in China)
[7] Any policy should take into account climate change stakes, in particular solo driving should
be discouraged. (expert from a research institute / think tank in France: 32 years of
26
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid-19-questions-mortality-origins-cause-unknowns-2020-3#wh
at-drives-mortality-in-people-infected-by-the-coronavirus-4 [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
27
http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-territorial-impact-of-covid-19-managing-the-crisis-across-
levels-of-government-d3e314e1/ [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
21
[8] I think Covid-19 pandemic is the result of our increasingly unsustainable kinds of human
interactions with the environment and with each other to name a few: environmental
degradation, pollution, nutrition intake deficiencies and unhealthy eating habits,
social-cultural and psychological selfish behaviors and lack of response-receptivity, wars,
unsustainable urban planning such as building multi stories housings, high raising flats and
units, deforestation and land degradation, etc. As a result, pathogens can now mute faster,
travel further and with greater diversity while our immune system gets weaker. Otherwise,
more viruses to come and with greater numbers. So, I think, long term policies strategies
should really incorporate all of these factors and plan for a coherent global response. The
structures needed for this coherence needs to be encoded within our transport, logistics and
urban planning and regulated by global world government institutes such as the world
Parliament of cultural festival states, UN and humanitarian hubs where every person, every
culture and every nation participate to their best and play a vital role. (Expert from a
university in Australia: 16 years of professional experience)
[9] Identifying the beneficiaries of compensation measures, and under which conditions, will be
interesting. There are some discussions on whether the aviation sector should receive
compensation in light of climate change. How will this affect trade. The COVID pandemic is
currently used as an excuse to justify why cars manufacturers should be waived from their
emissions targets, while there is no direct link (they wrote a letter to European institutions).
(young expert in a research institute or think tank in Belgium)
[10] In the context of pandemic, we need to think of a new land use and transport policy where
walkability is given higher priority in planning and operation infrastructure so that essential
services such as medical services and daily needs can be delivered/accessed without relying
on public transport. (expert from an international organization in Bangladesh: 20 years of
The comments [1][2] suggest the necessity of looking back on human history to learn
more lessons. The comment [3] proposes to make better use of the current crisis to further
improve the transport sector. The comment [4] points out the importance of better
communication by governments with the public: to be a role model for the public. The
comment [5] recommends that policymakers should work together with academics, by
allowing more academics to be involved in policymaking. The comment [6] raises a critical
question to our global society: how to promote globalization via cross-border economic
activities after the COVID-19 pandemic. Should we reduce cross-border economic activities
by pulling those transnational corporations back to their home countries, via strong economic
measures or institutional regulations? Should each country in the world conduct self-sufficient
economic activities, or is it possible for each country to realize such a self-sufficient
economy? The comments [7][8][9] argue the importance of climate change considerations,
even under the current pandemic. It is true that the transport sectors all over the world are
suffering from losses and damages from COVID-19, and they must by strongly supported.
However, it is also a big challenge for policymakers to balance the short-term bailout and the
long-term policy goals of sustainable transportation development. The last comment [10]
actually raises a dilemma for policymakers. In reality, many people have to reply on public
transport, because our cities are too big to walk. At the same time, making cities more
walkable is surely beneficial to health and the environment.
A chance to make great changes: This will never come again

Various behavioral changes have been observed during the pandemic. Some changes may
continue and new changes may be expected after the pandemic. In either case, sustainable
behavioral changes must be promoted. Some experts emphasize the importance of making use
of this pandemic to realize more improved sustainability. Among them, the following long
22
statements given by an expert from a university in New Zealand, who worked for 54 years as
a professional, are impressive.
 There will be pressure on globalisation trade policies with encouragement to purchase more
goods made locally. For trading nations like New Zealand, this will impact free trade and our
economy. International tourism will take a long time to recover and will be managed more for
quality than quantity. Aviation will remain highly constrained and many airlines will likely
disappear from servicing international travel. Regional zones that have the virus well
contained collectively will allow international travel within their region to resume earlier.
Direct non-stop flights enable better tracing of contacts. Multi-stop tourism will be inhibited
by quarantine regulations at national borders requiring 14 day isolation periods upon arrival.
Travellers will not wish to waste holiday time in successive lockdown mode. For freight, there
will be a return to more localised warehousing and less emphasis on just in time delivery from
distant storage locations. The experience of traffic thinning during lockdown and the clean air
benefits that were realised will mean the pressure will be on to green vehicle fleets to reduce
emissions. That will be encouraged by both stick and carrot policies. A positive for climate
change measures, but countries that think business as usual must come before health and
safety, will need to change their thinking and actions. Pandemics do not distinguish between
nations, leaders, race or religion. Their global impact is greater than any bilateral or
multilateral trading deal. We will respect our natural environment more after pandemic shocks.
Where we live, work and recreate becomes a habitat to conserve rather than abuse in the
search for wealth. We will see a decline in the mining and transport of minerals that contribute
to greenhouse gas production, and more renewable clean energy developments. As in war time,
innovation in the cause of survival will flourish. Our connectedness will be boosted by
electronic means, with physical contact constrained. Information technology that enhances
collaboration will be sought after. Fake information will not be tolerated. Monopolies on the
provision of information will need to be challenged and tested. Political and commercial
analysis needs an unfettered reportage, but distribution cannot rely upon advertising revenue.
Whether the pandemic will help us to reassess our love of consumerism to purchase things we
do not need and to throw away without thought of downstream consequences, is a matter that
will be watched closely. It is said, never waste a crisis. This COVID-19 virus is a lever to make
changes.
Other experts point out changes in urban forms together with increase in car trips,
more green mobility and logistics, and substitution of activities in physical spaces with those
in virtual spaces. Transport systems with shared spaces (public transport, shared mobility,
paratransit) are expected to become less popular, which are closely linked with the increase in
car trips.
 Car use and urban sprawl may grow, and this requires accelerate reduction of emission by
cars, that in turn make more feasible improvements of the road network, Staggering hours and
days of work and study may remain, reducing congestion for road transport and costs of
production for public transport. (expert from a research institute / think tank / NGO / NPO in
Italy: 40 years of professional experience)
 The importance of healthy transport mode such as walk and cycle, and living near workplace
will be more evaluated by citizens. It will be a good chance to promote them. (expert from a
university in Japan: 20 years of professional experience)
 COVID-19 may push development of soft-mobility and micro-mobility in cities. May also help
development of green mobility and logistics in cities, people having experienced a low
pollution world during lockdown. (expert from a firm in France: 19 years of professional
experience)
 I suppose we will change our working styles, not the way using transportation. For example,
instead of working at a fixed time, adopt flextime. I suppose that this will eliminate congestion
and rushing to work on a full train. But I don't think we'll work online without direct
communication or AI will replace essential workers. (an expert at a research institute / think
tank in Japan: 35 years of professional experience)
23
 The crisis has also demonstrated the risk associated with the lack of independent mobility, and
may therefore lead to more people wanting their own vehicle. This can lead to an increase in
both motorized transport (e.g. cars) and non-motorized transport (e.g. bicycles). Delivery
services are also likely to grow as people become accustomed to ordering food and other
goods online. (an expert in Japan with 11 years of professional experience)
 "Too early to see if the behavioural changes will persist, but measures are needed to protect
the public transport operation. The only positive mobility aspect we noticed is the increase in
active travel." (expert from a university in Australia: 24 years of professional experience)
 Hygiene standards will get higher priority in transport, more freight distributing goods from
e-shops and local farmers with local vegetables, fruits and other local food items to be
distributed in a coordinated way on short distances and under hygiene prescriptions (expert
from a university in Czech Republic: 22 years of professional experience)
 Shared autonomous vehicles, paratransit will be less popular (expert from a university of
Canada: 40 years of professional experience)
Immediate measures for surviving COVID-19

Immediate measures have been taken worldwide, including general measures for avoiding any
infection by wearing masks, washing hands, keeping physical distance from each other, and
disinfection of public transport vehicles and public spaces. Experts in this survey further make
the following suggestions.
 Robust systems for getting essential items such as food and medication to highly
vulnerable people need to be set up. (a British expert in university, 50 years of
 Avoiding crowded places and crowded buses, trains and planes. (consultant in New
Zealand: 30 years of professional experience)
 People should wear masks when moving in crowded public places and travelling in public
transport. (a local government officer in India: 25 years of professional experience)
 Allowing free bike sharing use for essential workers, and operating buses and subways
with higher frequency than usual. (young expert of NGO/NPO in South Korea)
 Setting different out-of-home activity levels depending on the level of infection risks.
(expert from a university in Japan: 10 years of professional experience)
As stated by the World Bank, panic buying has been one of the top headlines of the
COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.28 Why the World Bank emphasizes panic buying is
because it may seriously worsen global health supply chains. One expert participating in the
survey pointed out the issue of limited capacity of production systems within short timeframes.
For this, emergency laws and institutional design should be established as soon as possible,
allowing emergency goods to be produced and delivered on a large scale and in a timely way.
 Supply shortages are, partly the result of very limited capacity of manufacturing systems
to produce more on short notice (i.e., working at economic efficiency and capacity) (a
consultant in the USA: 37 years of professional experience)
To keep sufficient physical distance, it is very understandable that people try to avoid
crowded places and crowded buses, trains and planes. If transport demand keeps unchanged,
public transport has to be operated with higher frequency than usual, by properly reducing the
number of passengers inside each vehicle. To make such an operation possible, online
booking of public transport should be promoted, as already practiced in 22.2% of cities/towns
observed by experts (see Figure 5).
28
https://blogs.worldbank.org/health/covid-19-coronavirus-panic-buying-and-its-impact-global-health-supply-chai
ns [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
24
Measures for the ‘new normal’ period of the COVID-19 pandemic

Experts’ opinions suggest that measures for the ‘new normal’ period of the COVID-19
pandemic should be taken in a comprehensive way, from upstream to downstream.
Upstream measures: Public health, social and economic systems

To make sure the transport sector plays its own “should-be” roles, public health, social and
economic systems should be established in a well-coordinated manner. Cross-sectoral
policymaking will be the key for successfully conquering COVID-19 and addressing its
impacts.
 Improving public health infrastructure (a local government officer in India: 25 years of
professional experience): This will be a top-priority, among all measures/policies, for
successful fight against public health threats. While prevention of the occurrence of
epidemics and immunity building are important, it is also necessary to guarantee
emergency medical logistics and humanitarian logistics (or transport of essential goods
and services) during pandemics. Immunity building also requires joint efforts from
public health and other sectors, including the transport sector.
- Epidemic prevention and control, transportation support for emergency materials and key
production and living materials, support key areas for epidemic prevention and control,
strictly prevent the import of overseas epidemic, and resolutely block the spread of cross
infection through passenger stations and transportation vehicles. (young expert from a
university in China)
 Preparation of disaster management plan (a local government officer in India: 25 years of
professional experience): This measure has similar features as the anti-pandemic
measures. Both types of measures should be integrated as joint responses to
catastrophic events, in general. For example, in summer, urban flooding often occurs.
In the summer of 2020, urban flooding will occur here and there. This means that
policy makers have to prepare for the co-occurrence of COVID-19 and urban planning
threats. Therefore, from now on, disaster management and anti-pandemic measures
have to be taken simultaneously. Immediate preparation is required: for example, how
to keep physical distance at evacuation sites, which are usually crowded.
 Re-organization of social and economic systems as well as urban and transport
systems
- I think that the way to contain the huge losses of revenues of public transport systems is
the change of life times to smooth peak hours, allowing less crowded vehicles. Only a
widely shared organization of the times of the city (offices, schools, industrial plants, etc.)
could allow to better address people mobility and not lose confidence on public transport.
This would have another important side-effect, allowing to decrease congestion and
pollutant emissions. Finally, creating a sense of community, spurring a conscience of
effects of our mobility, thanks to bottom-up social oriented mobility tools could help.
(expert from a university in Italy: 30 years of professional experience)
 Urban and regional forms and land use (a local government officer in India: 25 years
of professional experience)
- Population density should be reduced through better land use management.
- Work from home should be encouraged
- The need for travel long distances for work or other essential activities should be
reduced.
- Education can be moved online to a great extent
Downstream measures: Transport and logistics measures

Experts made various proposals from the perspectives of both transport service providers and
users, covering service operation, technological development, monetary measures, and
25
enlightenment. Furthermore, these measures need to be conveyed to the public and various
stakeholders to avoid non-compliance. The followings are the major proposals from experts.
 To transport users and the society (expert from a university in Japan: 40 years of professional
experience)
- release workers from the fixed offices, fixed working time
- introduce strong congestion charge in public transport and road systems
 To transport operators (expert from a university in Japan: 40 years of professional experience;
a local government officer in India: 25 years of professional experience)
- Sanitizing public transport regularly (a local government officer in India: 25 years of
- Public Transport - improve level of service and overcrowding (a local government officer
in India: 25 years of professional experience)
- strengthen the performance of ventilation in cars of public transport (expert from a
university in Japan: 40 years of professional experience)
- segregate the immigration check lines for the passengers of flights coming from high
infection countries/regions and much stricter thermometer check and health check should be
applied (e.g. airlines) (expert from a university in Japan: 40 years of professional
experience)
- Airports should be equipped with more facilities for screening and testing and quarantining
(a local government officer in India: 25 years of professional experience)
- New guidelines for public transport need to be designed abiding by the social distancing
rules applicable to the region. This might drastically reduce the capacity of current available
transit system. This gap needs to be filled with reducing the headway and introduction of
additional transit resources. Incentives must be provided to the staff working during this vital
situation to ensure the economic security of the employees. Regularization of Transportation
Network Companies to incorporate shared mobility services in the mainstream transit system
must be encouraged. (young expert from a university in India)
 Financial support
- To provide immediate financial support to the industries which operations are strictly
regulated (e.g. airlines) (expert from a university in Japan: 40 years of professional
experience)
- Subsidies for public transport sectors are highly needed to maintain the public transport
service. (expert from a university in Japan: 12 years of professional experience)
- More public investment in public transport (expert from a university in China: 30+ years
- Restructuring of salary/wage structures for "front line" workers such as bus and train
operators, grocery store workers (state government officer in the USA: 30 years of
 Measures based on technologies
- The development of autonomous car and drone logistics should be accelerated (a
consultant in Japan: 18 years of professional experience)
- More public investment in automation ventilation, touchless technologies (expert from a
university in China: 30+ years of professional experience)
- MaaS the like should be realized as soon as possible (expert from a university in
Indonesia: 30 years of professional experience)
- [Opportunities and concerns] Logistics information should be provided and coordinated
using SNS. (consultant in Japan: 30+ years of professional experience), and devices such
as drone, robots, automatic drive system have to be more exploited. (a consultant in
Japan: 35 years of professional experience). However, Japan has a high awareness of
privacy and the spread of electronic money systems has not progressed, so it is not
possible to sufficiently track and manage personal information using ICT compared to
26
Korea and Taiwan. The response to COVID-19 this time may be a catalyst for ICT reform,
but since there are few experts in the political world, I think that the pace of reform may
not be as fast as expected. (expert from a university in Japan: 30+ years of professional
experience)
- No doubt, world will never be the same as before COVID-19. If we structure our
responses to address core issues related to tele-mobility and collective mobility systems,
we may be able provide better mobility choices/alternatives for people. That does not
necessarily mean less mobility. But this would definitely mean better health and quality of
life. (Expert from a university in India: 37 years of professional experience)
Measures for developing countries

More attention should be paid to the growth of COVID-19 infection in developing countries,
which has shown a much more rapid growth rate in recent months. Including the USA, all
developed countries have shown a decreasing trend of both infections and deaths. However,
more and more developing countries are showing a remarkable increase. For example, within
the last month (April 24 – May 24), the number of infections in India increased by 5.1 times,
Brazil by 4.6 times, Mexico by 3.1 times, and Pakistan by 2.5 times. It is expected to become
worse especially considering dense and poorly-equipped buses, informal transport (e.g.,
paratransit), and over-concentration of population in large-sized developing cities, particularly
in slums. More and more low-income and vulnerable people in developing countries will be at
risk of being infected, because they cannot keep proper physical distances and have no
available medical services.
Issues in developing countries have been seriously pointed out by the experts
participating in the survey.
 The crowding of public transport is very common in developing or emerging countries.
However, now onwards social distancing is going to be an integral part of our life - so, it will
be necessary to redesign the public transport services in every sense to promote social
distancing. Travel demand management measures such as staggered working hours, variable
working hours, etc. may be needed as the capacity of public transport will be limited when
public transport has to operate with due regard to social distancing. A complete guideline
needs to be prepared for travel demand management and public transport operation in the
post COVID-19 scenarios. It is not only the capacity of public transport but also other
measures such as disinfecting vehicles after every trip need to be done for public transport
and common carrier modes. Various travel demand management strategies need to be
formulated and social acceptance need to be judged, Travel behavior research is going to be
important in the overall context. (expert from a university in India: 20+ years of professional
experience)
 The measures and post-COVID policies for recovery of transport and logistic sector is
dependent on the Nation's type. Not all nations are same. They vary by population, geography,
climate, food habits, cultural habits, economy, natural resources, governance, administration,
traffic and travel patterns and behaviour etc. and therefore, the solutions that one nation
adopts, not necessary that those can work for other. A country like India which is 2nd most
populated, having high number of unorganised sector, high number of people who are yet not
able to use IoT and ICT technologies even though having smart phones, weak IT security
infrastructure, such country cannot adopt to changes quickly. and therefore, in order to revive
its economy, it will have to eventually reach to the place from where it stranded during COVID.
In order to recover the transport and logistics sector, the national government will have to
provide stimulus package, promote and safeguard public transport, increase tax on fuel and
control vehicle ownership, increase taxes on personal vehicles, promote infrastructure that
would help people choose more cycling and public transport rather than adopt personal
vehicles. (Central government officer in India: 12 years of professional experience)
 The quality of personal protective equipment for passengers and drivers needs to be increased.
It should be made available even to those who cannot afford it since this is a public health
27
issue rather than an individual health issue alone. Since the physical distancing plus personal
protective equipment will be a norm - there is a need to clearly specify the standards for this
so that the transition can be made by transport service operators immediately. (expert from a
university in Philippines: 22 years of professional experience)
 Food security is another concern for many poor transport workers in developing countries as
they are not earning due to lockdown. (expert in a university of Bangladesh, 20 years of
 The disruptions are not uniform in LMICs (low- and medium-income countries). So, how a
government of LMIC going to come up with the policies will be different from the HICs
(high-income countries) policies? The political priority in LMICs is hardly going to get
affected by this pandemic in the long run. (a young expert in an Indian university)
 A lot of care and guidance to be taken. However, unfortunately, countries specially developing
countries, are more serious about their political benefit than the people of the country or
world as a whole. (expert from a university in Sri Lanka: 15 years of professional experience)
 Taxi, bus, paratransit and motorcycle (Grab & Gojek) are the most transport mode that
affected by Covid-19 case. They did not support financially by the government to cover
operational cost or when they are idle. (expert from a university in Indonesia: 30 years of
 For extreme conditions, transit units could be used for isolation units in poor countries. For
moderate to low risk emergencies, only few essential service providers should be allowed to
use public transit. (expert from a university in India: 10 years of professional experience)
 Exception: Qatar has a very special situation. Most of the transportation system is very new.
The metro network was opened last year (2019) October. Thus, the main, most dominant,
transport mode is private cars. That’s why there were no major risks with the public transport
system since it is still new and not popular. (expert from a university in Qatar: 10 years of
 Massive public transport augmentation may be needed as the capacities go down due to
distancing norms. Highway infrastructure cannot provide required capacities, especially in
urban areas. (expert from a university in India: 30 years of professional experience)
 The recovery period post lockdown is going to bring several challenges to government and
transportation organizations which include managing the rising inter-city and intra-city travel
demand, maintaining smooth uninterrupted flow of medical resources, food, and essential
amenities. Public transit agencies have to ensure that they regain the trust of public by
ensuring all safety protocols such as social distancing to be followed in transit. These
measures are crucial to deter people from using private vehicles which can be addressed
through the following (A central government officer in India, 27 years of professional
experience):
- Opportunity for achieving a sustainable transportation system
- Improvement in disaster resiliency of transportation system
- Need for regaining the trust of the common public in safe movement available in public
transport system
 Maintain social distance, neat and clean service, sitting bus etc. are become popular (expert
from a university in Bangladesh: 10 years of professional experience)
 Social Distancing is not being practiced by many. People are not wearing masks. Children are
not taken into consideration. (expert from a university in Nigeria: 40 years of professional
experience)
8. Conclusions, recommendations, and future research issues

Recognizing the existence of various uncertainties and unknowns about COVID-19 and its
impacts (especially long-term impacts), a world-wide questionnaire survey was conducted of
experts in the fields of transport and other relevant disciplines, between the end of April and
28
late May, 2020, when global daily new cases showed a relatively stable fluctuation pattern
(85,000 – 100,000 cases)29. For experts, this period must have been a very busy time, because
many were involved in government work, education, handling of business operations and so
on, in response to COVID-19. Nevertheless, 357 experts participated in the survey and 284
provided valid answers. In addition, more than 100 experts gave their professional opinions
on potential changes in people’s live and our society and various “should-be” measures.
These 284 experts had a balanced profile in terms of countries of residence, professional
fields, and duration of professional experience.
Analyses of survey results revealed serious impacts of COVID-19 on transport,
logistics, and daily life, in terms of prohibited and restricted activities. Major findings can be
summarized as follows.
 The maximal percentage of cities/towns with guidelines and/or contingency plans in the
transport sector against public health threats is only about 30%, on average. This low
percentage is extremely problematic, considering that many countries have suffered
serious pandemics in the past. Coincidently or expectedly, this low percentage is
especially remarkable in those countries/regions with more infected cases and deaths.
 Nearly 70% of cities/towns, where experts were living, experienced or are still
experiencing lockdown.
 Stay-at-home campaigns, physical distancing measures in public transport and goods
delivery, economic measures, avoidance of face-to-face social contacts, and online
activities are the predominant measures against COVID-19 in the transport sector.
 Probably due to fear of infection inside public transport vehicles, declines in public
transport usage were reported, with shifts in trip demand to car, walking and bicycle. In
other words, remarkable modal shifts away from public transport were observed. Even
though total modal shifts in all surveyed countries/regions to active transport (walking
and bicycle: especially in Europe) are higher than the shift to car, a greater than 60% shift
from public transport to car (especially in South Korea and China) is a serious concern
for sustainable transport development. In India and other Asian countries, the shift from
public transport to motorcycle is much higher than other countries/regions.
 Concerning long-term changes in people’s lifestyles, experts showed great concern about
the potentially increasing car dependence on one hand, balanced by the expectation that
there will be more shifts of activity participation from physical spaces to virtual spaces on
the other.
 In the case of long-term changes in society, there are more experts who expect changes
toward improved sustainability than those showing opposite opinions.
 Various issues in developing countries are pointed out by experts: e.g., problematic
political governance, balance between travel demand management and public transport
operation, promoting and safeguarding public transport via taxation and infrastructure
improvements, standards for personal protective equipment for transit passengers and
drivers, and enlightenments about physical distancing measures.
 Recognizing the existence of uncertainties and unknowns, experts suggested that
policymakers should change their mindsets to effectively address the impacts of
COVID-19, and policies should be made across sectors in a well-coordinated way.
8.1. Recommendations: Policymaking against public health pandemics

based on a PASS approach
Here, a PASS approach (P: Prepare-Protect-Provide; A: Avoid-Adjust; S: Shift-Share; S:
29
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/ [Accessed on May 23, 2020]
29
Stop-Substitute) is proposed, as illustrated in Figure 9, for making systematic policy measures

against COVID-19 and future public health threats. The ideas are explained below.
P A S S
Prepare
| Avoid Shift Stop
Protect | | |
| Adjust Share Substitution
Provide
Figure 9. PASS approach for making systematic policy measures against public health threats
[P] What’s most important is to prepare well for public health crises. Guidelines,
contingency plans, and economic and institutional measures should be made by transport
operators and governments before pandemics occur, while transport users should also be well
informed and make similar preparations: e.g., to form anti-virus lifestyles and habits. When
a pandemic occurs, it is first necessary to protect both transport users and service providers,
based on the above preparations. This further includes at least two steps: preparations before
the pandemic starts in a country/region, and preparations before the pandemic starts in a
city/town of the country/region. Even for the current COVID-19 pandemic, people have
suffered from various fake and unreliable information about the virus, its impacts, and its
countermeasures. Therefore, it is important and necessary to provide reliable and timely
information, via organizations in charge of the management of such information.
[A] At early stages of pandemics, trip makers need to avoid visiting crowded places
and using crowded public transport as much as possible. Transport operators need to avoid
operating crowded vehicles and platforms. Governments are required to avoid making
unstable policy decisions and providing inconsistent information. Government officers need
to avoid behaving against their instructions to the general public (e.g., do not wear masks
even though the general public are requested to wear them). For this, government officers’ and
other decision makers’ behaviors under pandemics must be enforced, for example, via making
guidelines regarding behaviors (what people should and should not do) with strict punishment
rules for violations. Trip makers need to adjust their activity schedules to reduce infection
risk. Transport operators need to adjust their operation tasks and schedules. Governments
need to make adjustments across governmental departments and across sectors for taking and
implementing more effective policy measures. Needless to say, prepared measures may also
need adjustments, depending on whether and how much the new virus behaves in accordance
with expectations.
[S] As the pandemic progresses, people who have to make trips need to shift their
trip timings (e.g., staggered working hours) or modes (e.g., shift from public transport to other
modes) to reduce infection risks. At the same time, trip makers need to pay sufficient attention
to space sharing with others. Because of the need for the above avoidance, adjustment, and
shift, people need to think about sharing their job responsibilities with others for preparing
for the next sets of actions (i.e., substitute and stop). To make the protection measures work
effectively, transport users need to share their health information. Transport operators need to
shift to the operation system under pandemics based on prepared measures (guidelines and
contingency plans). Governments need to shift to pandemic-focused governance measures,
such as restrictions on mobility and collection of private health information. Transport
operators should restrict space sharing. Different operators may need to share their operation
30
resources, for example, in case of the absence of infected staff. Governments need to promote
shared economy under pandemics, for example, shared mobility (e.g., use taxi to deliver
goods), by deregulating or temporarily amending laws. Under such deregulated systems,
transit operators may use their unoccupied vehicles to transport goods.
[S] When the pandemic becomes more serious, people have to stop or substitute
activities involving trips. Governments need to make policies and regulations that allow or
force transport operators to stop service operation. Based on this, transport operators judge
whether or not to stop operation of their services or follow the enforcement. During the
COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen so many political complaints and bickering, which waste
valuable time and detract attention from efforts to fight the pandemic. Such political
arguments are useless and therefore must be stopped. Governments need to substitute
face-to-face governmental procedures with online procedures. Substitution between transport
modes may also be necessary.
The PASS approach targets transport users and service providers, as well as
governments. While this PASS approach is crucial and important for successful transport
measures against pandemics, its implementation may bring about various negative impacts on
these groups and possibly the whole society. To address this, proper protection measures (e.g.,
economic and institutional measures) should be taken by governments and transport
operators.
Thus, this PASS approach targets transport users and service providers as well as
governments. The four elements ‘P’, ‘A’, ‘S’, and ‘S’ correspond to different levels of
pandemics. The following table summarizes examples of policy measures against COVID-19
and future public health pandemics in the transport sector.
Table 1. Examples of policy measures against COVID-19 and future public health pandemics
Recommended measures: examples
PASS
Transport users Transport service providers Governments
 Prepare for pandemics by  Prepare guidelines and  Prepare pandemics-driven mindsets:
forming anti-virus habits, contingency plans for lessons in the past must be better
such as washing hands pandemics learned.
regularly  Prepare policies for supporting
 Prepare for pandemics by guidelines and contingency plans by
forming sustainable transport service providers
lifestyles, harmonized with  Prepare emergency laws and
Prepare
the environment institutional design to allow
emergency goods to be produced and
delivered on a large scale and in a
timely way.
 Prepare standards of physical
distancing plus personal protective
P equipment
 Protect transport users by  Protect transport service  Protect both transport users and
sanitizing public transport workers with Personal service providers via economic and
vehicles/platforms (and Protective Equipment institutional measures
ventilation) and obligating (PPE)  Protect highly vulnerable people
Protect
people to wear masks  Protect people from fake information
 More public investment in provision
automation ventilation,
touchless technologies
 Provide information about  Provide antiseptic solution  Provide scientific and evidence-based
crowdedness inside public at stations information, in a timely manner, to
Provide transport  Provide information about help users and providers to play their
platforms/vehicles how to keep both transport respective roles
 Provide personal health users and service staff safe  Provide immediate financial support
31
information (body from the virus to the industries which operations are
temperature, immunity strictly regulated
proof)
 Avoid use of crowded  Avoid crowded platforms  Avoid unstable policy decisions
transit vehicles and operating crowded  Avoid (government officers)
 Avoid panic buying vehicles (e.g., limit the behaving against their instructions to
number of inflow general public: People in authority
passengers, via booking) must avoid setting bad examples of
Avoid  Avoid actions/behaviors behavior.
against its contribution to  Avoid inconsistent information
sustainable development provision
A (e.g., request of waiving
from environmental targets
to governments)
 Adjust activity plans and  Adjust operation schedules  Adjustments across governmental
schedules (over days; to  Adjust meetings and staff departments and across sectors
Adjust reduce total trips) management as well as
 Adjust the ways of social physical-distancing-friendl
networking y workplace arrangements
 Shift trip timing (via  Shift to the operation  Shift to the pandemic-focused
booking) and mode system under pandemics governance
 Pear-hour charging (both (preparedness)
road and public transport)  Shift to sustainable
Shift or physical distancing interactions with the
charging environment
 Shift to sustainable
interactions with the
S environment
 Sharing job responsibilities  Space sharing should be  Timely information sharing
with others for preparing restricted.  To promote shared economy – shared
for the next sets of actions  Sharing of operational mobility (e.g., use taxi to deliver
(substitute-stop) resources between transit goods)
Share
 Sharing of health operators (e.g., due to
information for use of absence of infected staff)
public transport  Sharing transit vehicles for
goods transport
 Substitute activities  Substitution between  Substitute face-to-face governmental
involving trips with online (public) transport modes, procedures with online procedures
activities (telework, online vehicles with protection  Substitute crisis with an opportunity:
Substitute
meeting, online lecture, measures COVID-19 can be a lever to make
online shopping, online  Substitute public transport significant changes.
gatherings, etc.) vehicles for isolation units
 Stop activities involving  Stop operation of public  Making policies and regulations
S
trips transport under emergency to allow transit
 Stop gatherings  Change business operation operators to stop service operation
 Change lifestyles to stop styles to stop unsustainable  Stop political complaints and
Stop
unsustainable human human interactions unnecessary arguments
interactions with the  Policymaking for a coherent global
environment response to stop unsustainable human
interactions with the environment
8.2. Future research issues
Even though more and more evidence on the impacts of COVID-19 has been accumulating,
there are still many unknowns. Experts suggest that more research efforts should be made,
including the improvements of the present expert survey research. Some areas for
32
improvement were also suggested.
Further improvements to the present expert survey

According to the comments from participant experts, definitions of lockdown differ across
countries/regions. In this sense, the term “lockdown” is not really useful to capture actual
situations. Because policies/measures are highly time-dependent and conditional on available
budgets, it is necessary to better phrase relevant questions and to further make sure tradeoffs
between policies/measures. To minimize the infection risks, cross-sectoral joint efforts are
required. Even for trip making, because it is a derived demand from activity participation, to
minimize the infection risks related to trip makers (being infected by others or infecting
others), policies/measures should be taken from both transport and activity destination
perspectives. Focusing on transport, more detailed types of transport modes (including smart
and shared mobility: e.g., bike sharing, car sharing, MaaS, autonomous vehicles) should be
investigated. Various online activities are expected to boom in the very near future. It is
necessary to measure the market size of each type of online activity to estimate their
mitigating effects on transportation issues. Such booming online activities may be associated
with life arrangements or lifestyles. The life-oriented approach (Zhang, 2017) may be useful
to capture the whole picture of changes in life. Due to the changing situations about
COVID-19 and differences across countries/regions, it is worth implementing a follow-up
survey to participant experts by providing feedback on the present survey. Based on the
survey results, in-depth discussions among selected experts may be helpful to derive more
effective policies/measures at different levels (e.g., global, national, regional, and city/town).
Interdisciplinary research on transport, urban planning, and public health measures

After experiencing such a serious pandemic, people will become sensitive to public health
threats in the future, though it is unclear how long such a tendency will last. To better address
the impacts of public health threats in the future, more interdisciplinary research on transport
and public health measures should be conducted, as suggested by participant experts.
 The effects of COVID-19 affect people's movements and logistics. Currently, in Korea, goods
needed by individuals are delivered through on-line, so on-line logistics is increasing.
However, even after COVID-19, it is judged that people's hygiene will be sensitive. Therefore,
in the operation of transportation, I think it is necessary to study the system structure and
spatial structure of the hygiene check part. (expert from a university in South Korea: 28 years
 More research is required focusing on integration of personal safety in public transport
systems including aviation. (expert from a university in Saudi Arabia: 30 years of professional
experience)
Related to safety, recently, IATA has just declared its following five principles for
industry re-start (related to safety and security, flexible responses to the progress of the
pandemic, environmental targets, the role in the economic recovery, global and national
standards)30 and a roadmap to “Safely Restarting Aviation”31. In making the road map, IATA
emphasized that “all measures should be outcome based, supported by scientific evidence and
a robust fact-based risk assessment, and all measures should be aimed at minimizing the risk
of transmission at airports (both landside & airside) and onboard aircraft…”. For this, what
kinds of scientific evidence do we have for the aviation industry? This has to be answered as
soon as possible.
30
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-19-2/ [Accessed on May 20, 2020]
31
https://www.iata.org/contentassets/5c8786230ff34e2da406c72a52030e95/safely-restart-aviation-joint-aci-iata-ap
proach.pdf [Accessed on May 20, 2020]
33
In the urban context, current physical distancing practices require urban planners,
transport planners and community designers to reconsider current designs of public spaces,
spaces of public transport vehicles and platforms, and building spaces, etc., to prevent
infection of viruses, and to re-plan current cities and transportation systems for the coming
“new normal”. For such a reorientation, decision makers and planners of cities and
transportation systems must work together with the public health sector. For this, new ways of
thinking are required for policymaking and planning of cities and transportation systems,
where pandemics will have to become an unavoidable consideration.
Citizen participation and risk communication

For the current pandemic, a study in Japan revealed that bad communication between
governments and the public may be associated with the spread of COVID-19 at its early
stages (Zhang, 2020). General speaking, successful interventions and effective policy
measures require better citizen participation or public involvement. Various lessons could be
learned from public health threats in the past; however, the current experience suggests that
not all lessons were adopted. Then, the questions to be asked are: should there be any
differences of public involvement in response to COVD-19 and other public health threats,
and why weren’t the historical lessons utilized in the fight against the current pandemic?
COVID-19 is often compared with the 1918 Spanish Flu, which occurred a century
ago. As for lessons from the 1918 Spanish Flu, Soper (1919) published a paper in Science and
pointed out three lessons: (1) people do not appreciate the risks they run; (2) in line with
human nature, a person who thinks he/she has only a slight cold is seldom wiling to shut
himself/herself up in rigid isolation as a means of protecting others; (3) the disease may be
transmissible before the patient himself is aware that he is attacked. Soper further cited the
following 12 rules recommended at that time.
[1] Avoid needless crowding -- influenza is a crowd disease; [2] Smother your coughs and
sneezes -- others do not want the germs which you would throw away; [3] Your nose, not
your mouth was made to breathe through-get the habit; [4] Remember the three C's -- a
clean mouth, clean skin, and clean clothes; [5] Try to keep cool when you walk and warm
when you ride and sleep; [6] Open the windows -- always at home at night; at the office
when practicable; [7] Food will win the war if you give it a chance-help by choosing and
chewing your food well; [8] Your fate may be in your own hands -- wash your hands before
eating; [9] Don't let the waste products of digestion accumulate-drink a glass or two of
water on getting up; [10] Don't use a napkin, towel, spoon, fork, glass or cup which has
been used by another person and not washed; [11] Avoid tight clothes, tight shoes, tight
gloves -- seek to make nature your ally not your prisoner; [12] When the air is pure breathe
all of it you can -- breathe deeply.
Unfortunately, reflecting the development level of science, for this serious Spanish flu,
Soper suggested that “It is not desirable to close theaters, churches and schools unless public
opinion emphatically demands it. It is not desirable to make the general wearing of masks
compulsory. Patients should not be masked except when traveling from one point to another –
they need air.” The authors have no intention at all to criticize Soper. Rather, the authors argue
that science has its own limitations, when a new phenomenon suddenly appears. Fortunately,
science has progressed very rapidly, nowadays.
The above lessons and limitation of science suggest the importance of better
communication with the general public: what are known and what are unknown – all needs to
convey to the general public in a proper way (or not in a misleading way). Even for medical
experts, they also need to communicate better with other experts or authorities with greater
expertise (and those experts also need to communicate better with them), because scientific
evidence accumulates quickly and needs to be applied to practice in a timely and proper
34
manner. Such risk communications are a kind of complex system, not only because various
stakeholders with different roles and interests are involved but also because there are too
many unknowns and uncertainties ahead of the involvements. COVID-19 is a kind of risk,
and COVID-19 related communications should have similar features to those for natural
disaster risk communications. On the other hand, COVID-19 is invisible and cannot be
detected like earthquakes or floods, before people are infected. This makes communications
(types and contents of information, ways of information provision, and effective
understanding of information via interactions between information providers and receivers)
for COVID-19 more difficult, especially with respect to requests in changes in life for the
general public and organizational operations (e.g., schools, firms). Introducing actions too
early may bring about unnecessary changes in life and society and results in economic
damages and social disorders.
Revolutionary approach for resolving complex issues caused by pandemics

Because of diverse and serious impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector, huge amounts
of budgets are required to compensate for damages caused by lockdown, to support
re-opening and recovery of the economy, and to address long-term impacts of COVID-19.
Then the question is: how much should be invested in the transport sector, how to take climate
change into account under such a pandemic, how to invest? Related to this, the following
comments from participant experts suggest that it is necessary to develop a revolutionary
approach to resolve complex issues caused by pandemics.
 The question appears to be a bit fuzzy in that both the transport/logistics sectors and policies
are destined to be parts of the general economic theory. And the last one, with its mainstream
structure and working, is one of the main factors (to be blamed) to contribute to the present
dilemma by being indifferent to the destruction of nature by the working of the present
economic system, dragging the 'transport & logistics activities' into the battle-ground at the
wrong side. Therefore, unless a 'revolutionary' change happens to occur within the economic
theory itself, I do not expect any workable (and reliable) approach to the solution(s) to our
(global) problems ahead. (expert from a university in Turkey: 40+ years of professional
experience)
 It is important but critically hard to quantitatively identify tradeoff between economy and
public health measures. (expert from a university in USA: 25 years of professional experience)
 You have not mentioned active transport (bikes and walking), neither have you talked about
the environment, and I think that the latter should be the most pressing problem/challenge for
humanity in the future. (expert from a university in Chile: 47 years of professional experience)
To make economic measures work in an expected way, effective institutional design

cannot be ignored: how to involve different stakeholders and what their roles should be
(especially how governments should be involved in the operation of large-scale private
businesses), what are policy instruments, how to enhance the efficiency of policy
implementation, and how to better communicate with the public. All these issues need careful
investigation from a comprehensive and cross-disciplinary perspective.
The ongoing experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, once again, reminds us of the
importance of transforming the current market-oriented society to a life-oriented society. Our
society has used its resources to maximize the economy, but not to maximize life, as
evidenced by what has happened during the current pandemic: the loss of too many valuable
lives are largely due to unsuccessful measures taken here and there. Evidence is emerging that
more low-income people have been infected and have died than high-income people, for
example, “in New York, the ZIP codes in the bottom 25% of average incomes represent 36%
of all cases of the disease, while the wealthiest 25% account for under 10%. In Michigan, for
example, African Americans make up 14% of the population but account for a third of
35
infections and 40% of deaths”.32 Again, in the USA, more than 20 million people applied for
unemployment benefits in April 2020.33 For this, protective economic measures are required,
but it needs to be taken from a different angle from traditional ones. In line with such
considerations, the World Economic Forum is arguing that “Coronavirus has shown us why
we urgently need to make a basic income a reality”. 34 This is because the labor income share
in GDP has been declining year by year, since the global financial crisis in 2008. Another
trend needs to receive more attention. The nationalization trend of lifeline business in Spain,
the UK, and France has re-emphasized the importance and necessity of protecting lifeline
businesses and their employees. Furthermore, the various sustainable lifestyles have been
practiced (some have been forced, but some are due to voluntary behavioral changes)35,36. It is
necessary to consider how to maintain the currently-practiced sustainable lifestyles after the
pandemic, including allowing human beings to enjoy cleaner and more beautiful blue skies
and more time with their family and loved ones.
Research on the potential rise in car dependence after the COVID-19 pandemic
Even though more than 60% of participant experts agreed that there is a potential for
increasing car dependence after the current pandemic, such a trend will not occur on its own.
It will depend on various policies after the pandemic: industrial policies, anti-car measures via
pricing, pro-car measures via new technologies (e.g., autonomous vehicles), the intensity of
public transport improvement measures, active transport measures, changes in lifestyles and
attitudes and so on. In this respect, ten papers about car dependence, in the context of young
people, were accepted by the virtual special issue “Young people’s life choices and travel
behavior” in Transportation Research Part D (Bayart et al, 2020; Grimal, 2020; Herrenkind et
al, 2019; Lee et al, 2019; Liu et al, 2020; Shafi et al, 2020; Shen et al, 2020; Wang et al, 2019;
Zhou and Wang, 2019; Zong et al, 2019). These papers cover topics ranging from driving
license ownership, car ownership and usage, travel patterns, household expenditure,
residential behavior, shared mobility, and self-driving public buses and various insightful
findings have been derived (Zhang and Jiang, 2020). However, it is unclear whether those
findings will still hold after the pandemic or not. Obviously, more relevant research efforts on
these topics are required.
Concerning the USA, targeted by Lee et al. (2019) and Liu et al. (2020), on April 2,
2020, the U.S. Department of Transportation announced to invest $25 billion to help public
transportation systems over the whole country, without local match required, for supporting
the business continuity of public transportation services,37 which have been seriously affected
by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is still uncertain how much this historical grant funding will
stop the potentially increasing trend of more car dependency after re-opening the US
economy and after the pandemic.
In France, targeted by Bayart et al. (2020) and Grimal (2020), because of COVID-19,
the number of new cars sold in March 2020 dropped by more than 70% percent compared to
March 2019.38 Such a drop can be observed in other countries, too. However, this will be a
32
https://time.com/5821212/coronavirus-low-income-communities/ [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
33
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/united-states-unemployment-claimants-coronavirus-covid19
34
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-made-basic-income-vital/ [Accessed on May 27,
2020]
35
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105960/changes-to-the-general-lifestyle-due-to-covid-19-in-selected-countri
es/ [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
36
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ [Accessed on May 27, 2020]
37
https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/us-transportation-secretary-elaine-l-chao-announces-25-billion-hel
p-nations-public [Accessed on May 1, 2020]
38
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1110687/impact-coronavirus-sale-cars-new-france/ [Accessed on May 1,
36
temporal phenomenon, even though there are various uncertainties of economic recession
over the whole world. What would happen after the pandemic? For avoiding the infection by
COVID-19, physical distancing is important. If the pandemic lasts for a longer period,
physical distancing may encourage people to move away from city centers. This may result in
the re-booming of suburbanization, which is usually associated with higher car ownership and
usage, according to various historical observations. On the other hand, the coming economic
recession may lower such a desire of car ownership and usage, while the sharing economy
may grow further.
Related to the study by Zhou and Wang (2019), the anti-car attitudes of young people
in China may be associated with how to spend limited income for different purposes. Most
Chinese people, including young people, have a strong desire of home ownership, which is
closely linked with marriage. After marriage, couples will further face a strong pressure of
children education and caring of parents. Because the COVID-19 pandemic is also expected
to worsen economic growth in China, if this is the case, the increase of car dependence among
Chinese young people may not occur after the pandemic. Follow-up research is required.
Zong et al. (2019) revisited the decline trend of young people’s car ownership and
usage in Japan, which has partially supported by user-friendly and attractive public transport
systems and services in Japan. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically reduced
transit ridership and may result in 35-83 trillion Japanese Yen of deficits of public transport
operation over the whole country, depending on whether the pandemic would end in May or
December 2020.39 Concerns about higher risk of infection during use of crowded public
transport may encourage more people to use car. For example, in a district of Tokyo, use of
parking for commuting/schooling increased twice from February to March 2020. 40 If the
pandemic lasts for a longer time, more and more people may shift to use a car.
As for students targeted by Shafi et al. (2020), it is expected that online lectures will
become more popular after the pandemic. If this is the case, not only car use but also trip
making will decline. This is good for sustainable transportation development. Online working
may have similar effects on reducing trips. It is, however, unclear whether getting used to
physical distancing and fear of using crowded public transport may encourage more young
people to own a driving license or not, and whether the current fear experience of using public
transport with (more or less) higher infection risks than other travel modes will encourage
young students to shift to a more car-dependent life or not.
Before the pandemic, shared mobility, such as Uber, DiDi Chuxing, Grab, had seen a
rapid growth in many countries of the world, as stated by Shen et al. (2020) and Wang et al.
(2020). Even though shared mobility has a lower level of risk of infection than pubic transport,
shared mobility (also taxi) surely has higher risk of infection than car, resulting in a decline of
its usage. For example, Uber ridership in the middle March dropped by 60%-70% in the
hardest-hit cities like Seattle.41 It is a great concern whether more and more people will keep
away from using shared mobility, if the pandemic will last for a longer period.
More and more public transport workers (especially drivers) have been infected by
and died of COVID-19. For example, as of April 20, about 100 infected transit workers died
due to lack of basic protections. 42 An infected driver may transmit the virus soon to
passengers inside the vehicle. Such a fear will discourage people to use public transport.
Making buses to run automatically (see the study by Herrenkind et al. (2019)) is surely a
2020]
39
https://www.jcomm.or.jp/covid19/ [Accessed on May 2, 2020]
40
https://response.jp/article/2020/04/13/333559.html [Accessed on May 1, 2020]
41
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/19/uber-coronavirus-update/ [Accessed on May 1, 2020]
42
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/20/us-bus-drivers-lack-life-saving-basic-protections-transit-worker
-deaths-coronavirus [Accessed on May 2, 2020]
37
better option to avoid infection from bus drivers (obviously, loss of a job for the driver is an
undesired by-product). Driverless buses may attract those who have a certain fear of drivers
being more likely to be infected.
8.3. Call for world-wide, interdisciplinary and across-sectoral

collaborations
The COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented global crisis and similar crises will occur in
future. Now is the time when our human society needs to take collective actions by breaking
borders of countries, sectors, laws, and disciplines. To design effective measures against
public health pandemics, information sharing (governments, firms, experts, and individuals,
etc.) is extremely crucial, because we have to uncover the unknowns in terms of COVID-19
and its consequences as much as possible. Such information should be regarded as global
public goods. For effective information sharing, consensus building is essential, but it must be
speedy. To make this possible, preparedness drawing on lessons from history, and mutual
learning among countries of the world, are key. To prepare well for future public health
pandemics, world-wide, interdisciplinary and across-sectoral collaborations are urgently
required.
Conflict of interest statements

No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.
Acknowledgements
This research is supported by the WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force. We would like to
especially appreciate all those experts who participated in the survey and provided valuable
suggestions and opinions (see the italic parts in the main text). Our sincere thanks also go to
other members in the Task Force, students in Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Hiroshima
University, who provided valuable comments, and Ms. Fuyo (Jenny) Yamamoto for her
English proofing of the manuscript.
References
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39
Appendix A: Major contents of the expert survey
Categories Detailed question items

Preparedness Which of the following transport modes or systems in your city/town had guidelines for
public health threats that were already prepared before the COVID-19 pandemic [multiple
choices]?
◦ Aviation system
◦ Maritime system: Passenger
◦ Maritime system: Freight
◦ River/canal transport system
◦ Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car)
◦ Bus system
◦ Expressway, motorway, highway
◦ Logistics facilities
◦ Taxis
◦ Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk, etc.
◦ No guidelines for the above systems
◦ Do not know
◦ Others
When the transport and logistics services are interrupted by a public health pandemic, the
daily life activities of millions of individuals are affected. Therefore, contingency planning
to respond to such disruptions is required. In your city/town, which of the following
transport modes or systems had contingency plans that were already prepared before the
COVID-19 pandemic [multiple choices]?
◦ Aviation system
◦ Maritime system: Passenger
◦ Maritime system: Freight
◦ River/canal transport system
◦ Rail transit system (railway, subway, street car)
◦ Bus system
◦ Expressway, motorway, highway
◦ Logistics facilities
◦ Taxis
◦ Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc.
◦ No contingency plan for the above systems
◦ Do not know
◦ Others
During-pandemic  Was your city/town locked down, is it currently locked down, or will it be locked
measures: down, because of the spread of COVID-19?
Associated with ◦ It was locked down
the impacts ◦ It is currently locked down
◦ It will be locked down
◦ No lockdown
 Lockdown and its timings (start and end dates)
 In the case of lockdown, what type of restrictions are put on mobilities?
◦ limit on people who can go outside
◦ limit on number of times to go out
◦ no physical exercise or walking dogs outside house/apartment
◦ medical emergencies allowed
◦ medicine retrieval allowed
◦ shopping of daily necessities allowed
◦ closure of schools
◦ closure of factories
◦ closure of offices
◦ closure of stores
◦ others
Declaration of a state of emergency and its timings:
 residence country
 residence city/town
Activities/facilities prohibited to perform/use under the current COVID-19 pandemic in
residence city/town
◦ gastronomical services: e.g., restaurant, barbecue at a park
◦ cultural events: e.g., concert, exhibition, festival
◦ sports events
◦ amusements: e.g., casino, bar, night club
◦ retail shops
40
◦ physical exercise or walking dogs outside house/apartment

◦ schools
◦ libraries
◦ offices
◦ factories
◦ others
Measures taken in residence city/town against COVID-19
◦ Military forces were or have been dispatched to transport emergency logistics materials.
◦ Military forces were or have been dispatched to take care of emergency medical
services.
◦ Stay-at-home campaign has been propagated across the whole city/town.
◦ Monetary compensations have been paid to citizens for income reduction, medical
treatment, etc.
◦ Monetary compensations have been paid to transport and logistics firms suffering from
economic losses.
◦ Economic stimulus measures have been taken for recovery of industries.
◦ Protection measures for physical distancing have been taken based on information
collected by tracing behavior trajectories via mobile phone, security video camera,
credit card and/or other high-tech media.
◦ Drones and/or robots have been used to inform people to keep physical distances and
wear masks, etc.
◦ Physical distancing measures have been taken in public transport and their
stations/stops (e.g., bus passengers use only rear doors to avoid close contact with the
driver, bus/rail opens windows during operation).
◦ Physical-distancing-friendly goods delivery has been widely practiced.
◦ Others
Recommendations to the public in your city/town against COVID-19
◦ Telework (or online working)
◦ Online meeting
◦ Online lecture
◦ Restrict the passengers to get into public transport (e.g., train, subway, bus)
◦ Make an online booking before using a public transport (e.g., train, subway, bus)
◦ Avoid having a gathering event (e.g., park, square/plaza, church)
◦ Avoid eating out
◦ Physical exercise alone or with few people
◦ Others
Modal shifts in Do you observe significant modal shifts in your city/town [multiple choices]?
residence ◦ from public transport to car
city/town during ◦ from public transport to motorcycle
the pandemic ◦ from public transport to bicycle
◦ from public transport to walk
◦ others
Expected How much do you agree to each of the following statements about long-term changes in
long-term people’s lifestyles in your residence country, caused by the influence of COVID-19?
changes in [fully disagree, disagree, neutral, agree, fully agree]
people’s ◦ Online working (working at home, neighboring satellite offices, cafes, etc.) will become
lifestyles in popular.
residence ◦ Online shopping will become the most popular shopping activity.
◦ Online services of government, bank, ticket purchase, etc. will become a standard
country service.
◦ Online education will be a standard model of education.
◦ Working hours will become longer.
◦ The society will become more isolated due to the progress of online activities and smart
technologies (AI, IoT, robotics, etc.).
◦ Family bonds will be enhanced significantly.
◦ Infection risk level of a job will determine job choices.
◦ More and more people will choose a job allowing them to mainly work at home.
◦ More and more people will choose to live far from the city center.
◦ More and more people will out-migrate from populated cities.
Expected How much do you agree to each of the following statements about long-term changes in the
long-term society of your residence country, caused by the influence of COVID-19?
changes in the [fully disagree, disagree, neutral, agree, fully agree]
society in ◦ More and more inter-city business trips for meetings will be replaced by online
residence meetings.
country ◦ More and more intra-city business trips for meetings will be replaced by online
meetings.
◦ Smart technologies (e.g., AI, IoT, robotics) will be the key to detect and sound the alarm
about the occurrence of future public health threats.
41
◦ Social and economic systems will not return to the previous ones before COVID-19.
◦ The above changes will contribute to improving resilience and sustainability of the
transport and logistics sector.
◦ The cost structure of the transport and logistics sector may be altered dramatically to
prepare for future public health threats.
◦ The intervention of governments to transport/logistics industries will be strengthened
after COVID-19.
◦ The car dependence will become more obvious due to adverse reactions to crowded
public transport during the COVID-19 pandemic.
◦ Significant changes will occur, within 5 years, in transport and logistics policymaking
due to lessons from COVID-19.
◦ The induced growth of online business and automation will lead to more
unemployment.
Experts’ We would like to highly appreciate it if you could kindly give additional suggestions about
additional the ongoing measures and the post-COVID-19 pandemic policies for recovery of the
suggestions, transport and logistics sector as well as long-term transport/logistics policies, and/or provide
opinions, etc. us important information sources that you want to share with us.
Individual Your research or professional field(s) [multiple choices]
attributes ◦ Passenger Transport
◦ Freight Transport and Logistics
◦ Traffic Management, Operations and Safety
◦ Transport Economics and Finance
◦ Transport and Land Use
◦ Transport, Climate Change and Environment
◦ Transport Planning and Policy
◦ Transport in Developing and Emerging Countries
◦ Transport Infrastructure Design and Maintenance
◦ Urban and Regional Planning
◦ Tourism
◦ Energy Policy
◦ Public Health
◦ Others
Residence country, city/town
Your main occupation(s) [multiple choices]
◦ Education: university, school, college, etc.
◦ Central government
◦ Local government
◦ International organization
◦ Research institute / think tank
◦ Private firm: consultancy / engineering
◦ Private firm: transport/logistics service provider
◦ Private firm: transport-related manufacturer
◦ NGO / NPO
◦ Other
How many years have you worked in your expertise? [unit: years]
42

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Impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector and measures as

3. Data collection and profiles of experts

River/canal transport system 3.5%

Maritime system: Freight 4.9%

Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc. 4.2%

Logistics facilities 8.5%

Maritime system: Passenger 7.7%

Expressway, motorway, highway 8.5%

Aviation system 14.8%

Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car) 18.3%

No guidelines/plans for the above systems 31.3%

Bus system 21.1%

Do not know or not sure 44.7%

Contingency plan Guideline

(a) Guidelines and contingency plans: Overall comparisons

River/canal transport system

Maritime system: Freight

Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc.

Maritime system: Passenger

Expressway, motorway, highway

Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car)

No guidelines for the above systems

Do not know or not sure

0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0%

(b) Guidelines: Comparisons across countries/regions

River/canal transport system

Maritime system: Freight

Paratransit mode: auto rickshaw, Jeepney, tuk tuk, etc.

Maritime system: Passenger

Expressway, motorway, highway

Rail transit system (e.g., railway, subway, street car)

No guidelines/plans for the above systems

Do not know or not sure

0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0%

(c) Contingency plan: Comparisons across countries/regions

(Note: The percentages do not reflect the availability of transport systems)

5. Measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic

following two sets of questions, i.e., activities restricted and prohibited.

Activities restricted during lockdown

Activities prohibited during COVID-19 pandemic

Protective and supportive measures

limit on trip frequency 15.1%

limit on people who can go outside 40.1%

closure of factories 44.7%

closure of offices 46.5%

medicine retrieval allowed 50.7%

shopping of daily necessities allowed 55.3%

medical emergencies allowed 56.3%

closure of schools 64.1%

(a) Average percentages for overall samples

limit on trip frequency

limit on people who can go outside

medicine retrieval allowed

shopping of daily necessities allowed

medical emergencies allowed

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Figure 2. Activities restricted during lockdown (multiple choices)

gastronomical services 66.7%

sports events 92.3%

cultural events 92.8%

(a) Average percentages for overall samples

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%