JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2011 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

Inside This Issue Strouse Realty Group

American Dream Realty
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 Scotts Valley, CA 95066
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 (831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> C.A.R.’S 2011 FORECAST .................. 3
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 DRE #01228878
> ANNUAL TABLES ................................. 4

The Real Estate Report

local market trends SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Dec 10 Nov 10 Dec 09
Median Price: $ 522,500 $ 550,000 $ 560,000
Av erage Price: $ 591,497 $ 589,509 $ 607,159
Units Sold: 132 113 144
Home Sales Up, Median Price Down Inv entory : 573 678 467
Sale/List Price Ratio: 96.6% 96.8% 98.1%
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12- Day s on Market: 81 79 78
in Santa Cruz County was off 6.7% year-over-year, month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By Day s of Inv entory 130 174 97
while the average price dropped 2.6%. comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to
last year’s, we get a percentage showing market MORE STATISTICS…
For the year, the median price was up 5%.
momentum. Year-over-year, home inventory was up for the
HOME SALES… PENDING MOMENTUM… seventh month in a row: 22.7%.
rose for the second month in a row. The 132
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, has The sales price to list price ratio slipped last month,
homes sold represent an 16.8% increase from
also been trending downward. Last month the num- down 0.2 of a point to 96.6%.
November. Year-over-year, home sales were down
ber was +8%.
10.8%. This is the seventh month in a row home Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
sales have been lower than the year before. IN THE CONDO MARKET… neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.
Much of this can be attributed to the foreclosure the median price was up from November, but off For complete information on a particular neighbor-
mess. Although foreclosures are predominately 17.9% compared to last December. The average hood or property, call.
clustered in the entry-level market, the sharp de- price was down from November, and off 20.9%
cline in prices has made many homeowners under- year-over-year. For the year, the median price fell
water. The effect of this is they can’t sell their 3.3%.
homes and move-up. So, the move-up market is Condos sales increased sharply from November,
also suffering. but were down 14.3% year-over-year. For the year,
For the year, home sales were down 11.4%. condo sales were off 1.1%.
Pending sales were down for the fourth month in a
SALES MOMENTUM… row: 8.6%.
continued to fall last month and is now at –13%.
Inventory, on the other hand, increased for the
seventh month in a row: up 22.1% year-over-year.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Momentum

60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASOND
-20.0%
5 6 7 8 9 0
-40.0%

-60.0%
Sales Pending Median © 2010 rereport.com

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481

 The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Dec. 30 2010 -- HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker growth is rising, interest rates will, too. There's little
found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed- likelihood of a huge or sustained spike in rates, but
10-10 rate mortgages rose by four basis points, (.04%) to there may be a rising trend as positive incremental
07-10 end 5.19%. FHA-backed offers, so crucial to first-time news accumulates. However, it won't take much to
04-10 homebuyers and low-equity refinancers, increased by slow beneficial activity in the housing market; even
01-10 the same amount to finish the last week of 2010 at small increases in mortgage rates are sufficient to
10-09 4.82%, while the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid quell refinancing activity. With homebuying already
07-09
ARMs remained below the 4% threshold with an soft, small rises won't do much additional damage,
04-09
01-09 average initial five-year rate of 3.95%. HSH.com's save possibly to home prices, but certainly aren't a
10-08 FRMI and other public data series includes rates for welcome occurrence in a market struggling to re-
07-08 conforming, jumbo, and most recently the GSE's cover.
04-08 "high-limit" conforming products and so cover much
01-08 We'll begin 2011 with mortgage rates considerably
of the mortgage-borrowing public.
10-07 below where we began 2010. It's true that interest
07-07 By all accounts, 2010 was a year to remember, with rates are less favorable now, but are at pretty low
04-07 mortgage rates slowly falling to multi-generational levels despite the end-of-2010 run up. Next week,
01-07 lows at one point, only to reverse course as we HSH.com will release its 2010 Outlook for the mort-
10-06 closed the year. As is typical, mortgage rates again gage and housing markets. We review the eight fac-
07-06
04-06
rose much more quickly than they fell, causing at tors we think are they key items facing homeowners
01-06 least a few refinances to crash. Despite the increase, and homebuyers for the year, including mortgage
10-05 rates remain quite favorable, but refinancing activity rates. Watch for it.
07-05 will probably be considerably more subdued in 2011
04-05
Here's wishing all of you a happy, healthy and pros-
than it was in 2010.
01-05 perous 2011.
Although it will be uneven at best, we think that there
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
is a good chance that the economy will improve fur-
ther in the first month of the first quarter of 2011. If

The chart above shows the National

monthly average for 30-year fixed
rate mortgages as compiled by
HSH.com. The average includes mort-
gages of all sizes, including conforming, Santa Cruz County Homes - Prices & Sales
"expanded conforming," and jumbo. (3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
$1,000 250

Single-family Home Sales

Median & Average Prices

$900
$800 200
$700
150
$600
$500
100
$400
$300 50
$200
$100 0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJJ ASOND0 FMAMJJ ASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJJ ASOND
6 7 8 9 0

Santa Cruz County - December 2010

Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. County $ 522,500 $ 591,497 132 202 573 130 96.6% -6.7% -2.6% -8.3% -8.6% 22.7%
Strouse Realty Group Aptos $ 685,000 $ 750,036 11 11 24 65 94.5% -0.7% -3.4% 120.0% 57.1% -22.6%
American Dream Realty Capitola $ 610,000 $ 936,250 4 2 26 195 92.9% -16.1% 15.2% -20.0% -66.7% 73.3%
5522 Scotts Valley Dr. Rio del Mar $ 676,568 $ 1,133,390 8 10 46 173 96.3% -19.0% 8.5% -33.3% -47.4% 4.5%
Scotts Valley, CA 95066 Seacliff $ 500,000 $ 500,000 2 2 13 195 95.0% -55.9% -55.9% 0.0% -60.0% -27.8%
(831) 338-6481 San Lorenzo Vly $ 266,000 $ 317,733 17 33 88 155 98.5% -14.5% -12.0% -15.0% -28.3% 37.5%
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com Soquel $ 585,000 $ 568,264 11 11 25 68 97.3% 8.8% 8.6% 37.5% 83.3% 4.2%
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com Scotts Valley $ 794,000 $ 717,944 9 25 61 203 98.5% 13.4% -4.4% 0.0% 38.9% 32.6%
DRE #01228878 Santa Cruz $ 629,000 $ 649,588 34 33 118 104 96.4% 8.8% -1.7% 3.0% -13.2% 29.7%
East County $ 257,500 $ 348,532 10 29 71 213 96.4% -8.8% -10.3% -44.4% 20.8% 42.0%
West County $ 575,000 $ 575,000 1 2 17 510 95.8% -34.3% -40.2% -85.7% 0.0% 41.7%
Page 2 Watsonv ille $ 327,500 $ 313,056 16 31 45 84 98.0% 18.0% 9.0% -11.1% -20.5% 181.3%
 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Santa Cruz County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change Strouse Realty Group
40.0% American Dream Realty
30.0% 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
20.0% Scotts Valley, CA 95066
10.0% (831) 338-6481
0.0% Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-10.0% 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J ASOND http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-20.0% 6 7 8 9 0 DRE #01228878
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%

> C.A.R.’S 2011 FORECAST

The California Association of REALTORS® ex-
pects the median home price to increase 2% in
2011. They forecast sales to increase by 2% also.
“California’s housing market will see small in-
creases in both home sales and the median price
in 2011 as the housing market and general econ-
omy struggle to find their sea legs,” said C.A.R.
President Steve Goddard. “The minor improve-
ment in the housing market next year will be driven
by the slow pace of recovery in the economy and
modest job growth. Distressed properties will fig-
ure prominently in the market next year, but we
also expect to see discretionary sellers play a lar-
ger role,” he said.
“As the U.S. economy continues its tepid recovery,
we’ll see some improvement in California’s econ-
omy,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief
Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “We expect a
net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs
in California for the year to come and an improve-
ment in unemployment figures,” she said.
“The situation in the California housing market
continues to be a tale of two housing markets,”
said Goddard. The segment of the market under
$500,000 has been driven by distressed sales,
while higher-priced areas of the state have been
constrained by restricted financing options, and
increasingly have experienced an increase in the
number of distressed properties. Sales in the low
end have been constrained by a lack of inventory,
putting upward pressure on prices. Multiple offers
on lower-end homes have been very common,
according to Goddard.
“A lean supply of available homes for sale will
drive prices up at the low end, but larger invento-
ries and limited, less attractive financing will cause
continued softness at the high end,” said Apple-
(Continued on page 4)
Table Definitions
_______________

Santa Cruz County Condos- Prices & Sales Median Price

(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) The price at which 50% of prices
were higher and 50%were lower.
$700 50
Median & Average Prices

45
$600 40 Average Price
Add all prices and divide by the
Condo Sales

$500 35
number of sales.
30
$400 25
20 SP/LP
$300 15 Sales price to list price ratio or the
10 price paid for the property divided by
$200 the asking price.
5
$100 0
0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND0 FMAMJ J ASOND1 FMAMJ J ASOND DOI
6 7 8 9 0 Days of Inventory, or how many
days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current rate
Santa Cruz County - December 2010 of sales.
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices Pend
Cities Median Average Sales Pend Inven DOI SP/LP Med Ave Sales Pend2 Inven Property under contract to sell that
County $ 287,500 $ 299,492 30 53 177 177 95.9% -17.9% -20.9% -14.3% -8.6% 22.1% hasn’t closed escrow.
Aptos $ - $ - 0 0 0 0 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Capitola $ 249,000 $ 249,000 1 3 7 210 100.0% -19.5% -29.4% -75.0% -62.5% -30.0% Inven
Rio del Mar $ 405,750 $ 392,875 4 2 31 233 95.2% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Number of properties actively for
Scotts Valley $ 300,000 $ 319,967 3 8 5 50 98.9% -15.5% -15.4% 0.0% 100.0% 150.0% sale as of the last day of the month.
Santa Cruz $ 362,000 $ 364,618 10 10 57 171 95.6% 10.1% 0.9% -28.6% -41.2% 11.8%
Watsonv ille $ 191,063 $ 209,316 10 14 16 48 95.5% 3.3% 3.5% 100.0% -6.7% -5.9% Page 3
THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
Santa Cruz County

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

American Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
Scotts Valley, CA 95066
(831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Go online to see the full report

with the city by city breakdown:

http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
Santa Cruz County
ton-Young. “There’s some indication that % Change from Year Before
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
lenders will accelerate the number of foreclo-
sures coming on market, further adding to the Prices Prices
Area Year Sales Median Average SP/LP DOI Sales Med Ave
housing supply, but we do not anticipate that
lenders will flood the market with distressed SZC 2003 2,419 $ 540,000 $ 612,390 97.8% 70
properties,” she said. SZC 2004 2,809 $ 630,000 $ 697,787 99.1% 45 16.1% 16.7% 13.9%
SZC 2005 2,317 $ 750,000 $ 833,589 99.4% 116 -17.5% 19.0% 19.5%
“The wild cards for 2011 include federal hous-
SZC 2006 1,987 $ 745,000 $ 831,073 98.0% 160 -14.2% -0.7% -0.3%
ing policies, actions of underwater homeown-
SZC 2007 1,562 $ 750,000 $ 852,775 97.5% 254 -21.4% 0.7% 2.6%
ers, and the strength of the economic recov-
ery,” said Appleton-Young. “What is certain is
SZC 2008 1,435 $ 582,000 $ 661,809 97.1% 257 -8.1% -22.4% -22.4%
that favorable home prices and historically low SZC 2009 1,759 $ 500,000 $ 554,165 97.9% 127 22.6% -14.1% -16.3%
interest rates will continue to make owning a SZC 2010 1,558 $ 525,000 $ 585,206 97.6% 134 -11.4% 5.0% 5.6%
home in California attractive for those who are
Santa Cruz County
in a position to buy,” she said.
CONDOS % Change from Year Before
Prices Prices
Area Year Sales Median Average SP/LP DOI Sales Med Ave
SZC 2003 622 $ 369,000 $ 386,218 99.0% 22
SZC 2004 553 $ 430,000 $ 452,009 100.6% 28 -11.1% 16.5% 17.0%
SZC 2005 589 $ 515,000 $ 541,038 100.3% 93 6.5% 19.8% 19.7%
SZC 2006 480 $ 525,000 $ 540,380 98.6% 172 -18.5% 1.9% -0.1%
SZC 2007 386 $ 503,500 $ 546,632 98.2% 227 -19.6% -4.1% 1.2%
SZC 2008 319 $ 380,000 $ 413,564 96.9% 270 -17.4% -24.5% -24.3%
SZC 2009 362 $ 320,000 $ 346,516 97.6% 198 13.5% -15.8% -16.2%
SZC 2010 358 $ 309,500 $ 346,604 98.2% 180 -1.1% -3.3% 0.0%
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