FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – June 16, 2020

For interviews, contact:

Jake Lowary, 931-217-8534 (mobile)

Jacob.lowary@vumc.org

COVID-19 hospitalizations increase primarily in two Tennessee regions, could hit

1,000 in late July

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients reached its highest level to date on June
15, when more than 400 patients were hospitalized across Tennessee, according to a
report from faculty researchers at Vanderbilt University Medical Center and Vanderbilt
University School of Medicine.
The researchers stress that with few exceptions, the rise in COVID-19 hospitalizations
has not yet put acute strain on the Tennessee hospital system—but a recent rise in
cases, coupled with new modeling of hospitalizations, highlights that the situation must
be closely tracked moving forward.
Most COVID-19 patients were hospitalized in Middle Tennessee, the Memphis Delta
region and Southeast Tennessee around Chattanooga. The largest increases were in
the Memphis Delta region and Southeast Tennessee around Chattanooga.
“The recent rise in hospitalizations is not a simple story, and is a story with multiple
parts,” said John Graves, PhD, associate professor of Health Policy and director of the
Center for Health Economic Modeling at Vanderbilt. “The rise in hospitalizations is as
much about the virus expanding its footprint into additional areas of the state as it is
about hospitalizations increasing in facilities that were already treating COVID-19
patients.
“And as hospitals see a welcome return of patients for elective procedures, it creates a
thinner cushion to absorb a sudden and unexpected rise in COVID hospitalizations. It’s
a situation that bears watching very closely.”
The rise in hospitalizations has increased as the number of positive cases has grown
but has not yet put stress on the state’s hospital system, Graves added. Tennessee has
not yet seen the surge in hospitalizations that has been seen in some neighboring
states.
To explain this, Graves and fellow researchers, Melinda Buntin, PhD, Mike Curb
Professor of Health Policy and chair of the Department of Health Policy and Melissa
McPheeters, PhD, research professor and co-director of the Center for Improving the
Public’s Health Through Informatics, developed a case mix index (CMI) to calculate the
risk profile of COVID-19 patients across the state using data from the Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention on a primary risk factor, age.
The analysis shows that while the number of cases is growing, the growth is primarily in
younger populations, which the CDC and other research have generally shown to have
a lower likelihood of requiring hospitalization. When more cases occur in more
vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions,
hospitalizations are more likely to spike.
But even as cases to continue to increase so will hospitalizations, even if they represent
a small proportion of total cases. If current transmission trends continue, the state may
reach 1,000 concurrent hospitalizations in mid to late July or early August, the team
reported.
“As we have since the epidemic began, we are continuing to heavily stress that
Tennesseans need to keep doing what they did early on, and that is to be very vigilant
about social distancing, be consistent with hand hygiene and do your part to slow the
spread,” McPheeters said. “It will be imperative to maintain a strong public health
response in the form of widespread testing, effective contact tracing and
recommendations for isolation of cases as we move forward.”