166
AN APPROXIMATE POWER PREDICTION METHOD
by
1. Holtrop" and G.G.J. Mennen"
I. Introduction
In a recent publication [I] a statistical method was presented for the determination of the required pro pulsive power at the initial design stage of a ship. This method was developed through a regression analysis of random model experiments and fullscale data, available at the Netherlands Ship Model Basin. Because the accuracy of the method was reported to be insuf ficient when unconventional combinations 'of main parameters were used, an attempt was made to extend the method by adjusting the original numerical predic tion model to test data obtained in some specific cases. This adaptation of the method has resulted into a set of prediction formulae with a wider range of applica tion. Nevertheless, it should be noticed that the given modifications have a tentative character only, because the adjustments are based on a small number of ex periments. In any case, the application is limited to hull forms resembling the average ship described by the main dimensions and form coefficients used in the method. The extension of the method was focussed on im proving the power prediction of highblock ships with low LIBratios and of slender naval ships with a com plex appendage arrangement and immersed transom sterns. Some parts of this study were carried out in the scope of the NSMB Cooperative Research programme. The adaptation of the method to' naval ships was carried out in a research study for the Royal Nether lands Navy. Permission to publish results of these studies is gratefully acknowledged.
•
2. Resistance prediction
The total resistance of a ship has been subdivided into:
where:
frictional resistance according to the [ITe
1957 friction formula 1+ k 1 form factor describing the viscous resistance of the hull fonn in relation to RF RA. pp resistance of appendages
RF
R k'
Ra
wavemaking and wavebreaking resistance additional pressure resistance of bulbous bow near the water surface
.) NCUln'WldI Ship Model BuitL, (Mw), Wqcninlcn, The Ncthcrlands.
R TR
RA
pressure transom stem modelship correlation resistance.
additional
resistance
of immersed
For the form factor of the hull the prediction for mula:
^{l}^{+}^{k} 1 ^{=}^{c} 13{O.93+c12(BILR ^{)}^{o}^{.}^{9}^{2}^{4}^{9}^{7}
(0.95 
can be used.
C _{p} }o·521448 {1 
C _{p} + 0.0225 Icb)o.6906}
In this formula C _{p} is the prismatic coefficient based on the waterline length L and lcb is the longitudinal position of the centre of buoyancy forward of 0.5L as
a percentage of L. In the formfactor formula L _{R} is a
parameter reflecting the length of the run according to:
The coefficient c 12 is defined as:
c _{1}_{2} = (TIL}o.2226446
.
when TIL > 0.05
c 12 = 48.20( TIL  0.02)2.078 + 0.479948
C12 = 0.4 79948
when 0.02 < TIL < 0.05
when TIL < 0.02
In this formula T is the average moulded draught. The coefficient CB accounts for the specific shape of the afterbody and is related to the coefficient C _{u} _{e}_{r}_{n} ac cording to:
C 13 =
For
I + 0.003 C _{n} _{e}_{r}_{n}
the
coefficient CSle~ the
guidelines are given:
following
tentative
Afterbody fonn
Vshaped sections Normal section shape Ushaped sections with Hogner stem

+
10
o
10
The wetted well by:
area of the hull can be approximated
S=L(2T+Bb/C~(0.453+0.4425 Cs +
 0.2862 CM 
•
0.003467 BIT + 0.3696 C""p) +
+ 2.38 AsTIC _{s} .
In this formula CM is the midship section coef ficient, Cs is the block coefficient on the basis of the
waterline length L. C w» is the waterplane area coef ficient and A BT is the transverse sectional area of the bulb at the position where the stillwater surface inter sects the stem. The appendage resistance can be determined from:
RAP? = 0.5 p VZSAPP(l + kz)eqC _{F}
where p is the water density, V the speed of the ship,
SA pp the wetted area of the appendages, I + k _{z} the appendage resistance factor and C _{F} the coefficient of frictional resistance of the ship according to the IITe 1957 formula.
1 + k _{z} values are
given for streamlined floworiented appendages. These values were obtained from resistance tests with bare and appended ship models. In several of these tests turbulence stimulators were present at the leading edges to induce turbulent flow over the appendages,
In
the
Table
below
tentative
Approximate 1 + k _{z} values
rudder behind skeg 
1.5 
 
2.0 

rudder behind stem 
1.3 
 
_{1}_{.}_{5} 

twinscrew balance rudders 
2.8 

shaft brackets 
3.0 

skeg 
1.5 
 
2.0 

stru t bossings 
3.0 

hull bossings 
2.0 

shafts 
. 2.0  
4.0 

^{•} 

stabilizer _{f}_{i}_{n}_{s} 
2.8 

dome 
2.7 

bilge keels 
1.4 
The equivalent
I + k _{z} value for a combination of
appendages is determined from:
(l + k z)
eq
1:(1 + kZ)SAfP
=::
:.;;.;
r,SAPP
:
The appendage resistance can be increased by the resistance of bow thruster tunnel openings according
to:
where d is the tunnel diameter. The coefficient C _{B}_{m} ranges from 0.003 to 0.012. For openings in the cylindrical part of a bulbous bow the lower figures should be used. The wave resistance is determined from:
R w = cl czc _{s} Vpg exp {m _{l} ~ + In _{z} cos(),F; 2)}
with:
cl =
2223105 c;78613(TIB)t.07961 (90 
i _{E} )1.37565
C _{7}
= 0.229577 (BIL )0.33333
when BIL < 0.11
_{c} _{7}
^{c} 7
_{=} _{B}_{I}_{L}
  0.5  0.0625 LIB
c 2 ^{}

exp( 1.89 vc)
Cs
  IO.8A _{T} /(BT C _{M}
)
when 0.11 < BIL < 0.25
when BIL > 0.25
In these expressions c _{2} is a parameter which accounts for the reduction of the wave resistance due to the ac tion of a bulbous bow. Similarly, c5 expresses the in fluence of a transom stern on the wave resistance. In the expression AT represents the immersed part of the transverse area of the transom at zero speed. In this figure the transverse area of wedges placed at the transom chine should be included. In the formula for the wave resistance, F _{n} is the Froude number based on the waterline length L. The other parameters can be determined from:
= 
1.446 C _{p}  
0.03 LIB 
when 
LIB < 12 
<: 
1.446 C _{p} _{} 
0.36 
when 
LIB> 12 
m _{l} = 0.0140407LIT1.752S4v ^{l}^{1}^{3}^{/}^{L}^{+}
c
c
_{1}_{6}
_{l}_{6}
<:
=
 4.79323 BIL  c _{I}_{6}
8.07981 C _{p} 
13.8673 ct +
1.73014 
0.7067 C _{p}
6.984388 ct
when Cp' < 0.80
when C _{p} > 0.80
m _{z} =
c _{l}_{S} e;
exp(O.1 F;~)
The coefficient CIS is equal to 
1.69385 for L ^{3} /.V <
512,whereasc _{1}_{S} =0.OforL ^{3}^{/}^{V}^{>} J727.
.
.
For values of 512 < L 3/v .< 1727, c 15 is determined from:
c _{l}_{S} = 1.69385 + (L/V 113
d = 0.9
8.0)/2.36
The half angle of entrance 'e is the angle of the waterline at the bow in degrees with reference to the centre plane but neglecting the local shape at the stem. If i _{E} is unknown, use can be made of the following
formula:
if:
=
1 + 89 exp { (LIB )0.80856 (l

C _{w} _{p} )0.30484
(I  C _{p}  0.0~~51cb)O.6367(LRIB)0.34574
(100 VIL ^{3} )0.16302}
This formula. obtained by regression analysis of over 200 hull shapes, yields 's values between I" and 90". The original equation in [11 .sometimes resulted in negative if: values for exceptional combinations of hullform parameters. The coefficient that determines the influence of the bulbous bow on the wave resistance is defined as:
•
168
where 11 _{8} is the position of the centre of the trans verse area A _{S} _{T} above the keel line and T _{F} is the for ward draught of the ship. The additional resistance due to the presence of a bulbous bow near the surface is determined from:
R8 = 0.11 exp(  3 Po 2) F: _{i} .41J. pg/(l + F;)
where the coefficient PB
gence of the bow and F _{n}_{l} is the Froude number based
on the immersion:
is a measure for the emer
P _{B} = 0.56.JA _{B}_{i}_{/}_{(}_{T}_{F} 
and
1.5 h _{8} )
F _{n}_{l} = y/Jg(T _{F} 
h _{B}

0.25 JA _{B}_{T} ) + 0.15 y2
In a similar way the additional pressure resistance due to the immersed transom can be determined:
R _{T}_{R}
:= 0.5 p y ^{2} A _{T} c _{6}
The coefficient '6 has been related to the Froude number based on the transom immersion:
when F _{n}_{T} < 5
C _{6} = 0.2(1
0.2 F _{n}_{T} )

or
C
6 0
F _{n} _{T} has been defined as:
when F _{n}_{T} '? 5
F _{n} _{T} = V/"/2gAr!(B +0 C _{w} _{p} _{)}
In this defmition C _{w}_{p} is the waterplane area coeffi cient. The modelship correlation resistance RA with
•
RA = ~pV2SCA
is supposed to describe primarily the effect of the hull roughness and the stillair resistance. From an analysis of results of speed trials, which have been corrected to ideal trial conditions, the following formula for the correlation allowance coefficient _{C}_{A} was found:
CA = 0.006(L + 100)0.16  0.00205 +
+ 0.0031£/7.5 C; c _{2} (0.04  c )
or
c
^{=} ^{0}^{.}^{0}^{4}
^{w}^{h}^{e}^{n}
^{T}^{F}^{/}^{L} ^{>} ^{0}^{.}^{0}^{4}
In addition, CA
might be increased to calculate e.g.
the effect of a larger hull roughness than standard. To
this end the ITIC1978 fonnulation can be used from
which the increase of CA can be derived for roughness
values
(mean apparent amplitude):
higher than the standard figure of _{k}
s _{:}_{=} 150 _{p}_{m}
increase CA = (0.105 k _{s} ^{l} ^{/}^{3} 
0.005579)/L 1/3
In these formulae Land k _{s} are given in metres.
3. Prediction of propulsion factors
The statistical prediction formulae for estimating the effective wake fraction, the thrust deduction frac tion and the relativerotative efficiency as presented in
•
[J] could be improved on several points.
For singlescrew ships with a conventionaJ stem _{a}_{r}_{} rangement the following adapted formula for the wake
fraction can be used:
L
W = c _{9} Cv T
A
+ 0.24558 j
Cv
0.0661875 + 1.21756 "11
(l 
Cp()
B
L(I 
C _{P}_{l} )
_ 0.09726 0.95 Cp
+ O.J 1434 0.95 CB
+
+
+ 0.75 C.ternCV + 0.002 C. _{t}_{e}_{m}
•
The coefficient c _{9} depends on a coefficient CB defined as:
or
whenB/T _{A}
< 5
C _{8} =S(7B/T _{A}  2S)/(LD(B/T _{A} _{} 3»
or
or
c _{9} =c _{8}
C _{9} = 32 
16/(c _{8} _{}
c _{l}_{1}
C
TA/D
24)
whenB/T _{A} > 5
when cB < 28
when c _{8} > 28
when T
(/D
< 2
C _{l}_{l} = 0.0833333(T _{A} _{/}_{D} _{)}_{3} + L33333
when TA/D > 2
In the formula for the wake fraction, Cv is the vis cous resistance coefficient with Cv = (l + k) C _{F} + CA' Further:
C _{P}_{I}
= 1.45 C _{p}

0.31 S 
0.0225 lcb .
In a similar manner the following approximate for mula for the thrust deduction for singlescrew ships with a conventional stem can be applied:
t = 0.001979 L!(B  BC _{n} } + 1.0585 c _{l}_{O} +
 0.00524  0.1418 D ^{2}^{/}^{(}^{B}^{T}^{)} + 0.0015 C I
s ern
The coefficient c _{l}_{O} is defined as:
c _{1}_{0} = 81L
or
C _{I}_{O} = 0.25  0.003328402/(B/L 
The
relativerotative
efficiency
when LIB> 5.2
0.134615385)
when L/B < 5.2
can
be
predicted
well by the original formula:
flR ::: 0.9922 
0.05908 AEIA _{o} _{+}
+ O.074~4(Cp  0.0225/cb)
Because the formulae above apply to ships with a conventional stem an attempt has been made to in dicate a tentative formulation for the propulsion fac tors of singlescrew ships with an open stem as applied sometimes on slender, fast sailing ships:
w:::0.3C _{s} + IOCvC _{s} 0.1
t « 0.10
and
fl _{R}_{:}_{:}_{:} 0.98 .
These values are based on only a very limited num ber of model data. The influence of the fullness and the viscous resistance coefficient has been. expressed in a similar way as in the original prediction formulae for twinscrew ships. These original formulae for twin screw ships _{a}_{r}_{e} _{:}
•
w::: 0.3095 CB + 10 CvC _{s}  0.23 DIvOT"
I::: 0.325 CB 
0.1885 DIvOT
flR ::: 0.9737 + O.III(C _{p}  0.0225lcb) +
 0.06325 P/D
4. Estimation ofpropeUer efficiency
For the prediction of the required propulsive power the efficiency of the propeller in openwater condition has to be determined, It has appeared that the charac teristics of most propellers can be approximated well by using the results of tests with systematic propeller series. In [2] a polynomial representation is given of the thrust and torque coefficients of the Bseries propellers. These polynomials are valid, however, for a Reynolds number of 2.10 ^{6} and need to be corrected for the specific Reynolds number and the roughness of the actual propeller. The presented statistical pre diction equations for the modelship correlation al
lowance
and
the
propulsion
factors
are
based
on
Reynolds and roughness corrections according to the ITTC1978 method, [3]. According to this method the propeller thrust and torque coefficients are cor rected according to:
K O.ship = Ko_a.series 
6C _{D} 0.25
^{C} O. 75 ^{Z}
D
Here 6CD is the difference in drag coefficient of the profile section, P is the pitch of the propeller and
169
C _{O}_{.} _{7}_{5} is the chord length at a radius of 75 per cent and Z is the number of blades.
I:J.C _{D} = (2 + 4( I/C)0.75 ){0.003605  (1.89 + 1.62
_{l}_{o}_{g} (c _{O} . _{7}_{5} /k _{p} »  2.5}
In this formula tic is the thicknesschordlength ratio and k _{p} is the propeller blade surface roughness. For this roughness the value of k _{p} = 0.00003 m is used as a standard figure for new propellers. The chord length and the thicknesschordlength ratio can be estimated using the following empirical for mulae:
and
(t/C)O.75 = (0.0185 
0.00125 Z) D/cO.7S'
The blade area ratio can be determined from e.g.
Keller's formula:
AE/A _{o} = K + (1.3 + 0.3 Z) T/(D ^{2} (p _{o} + pgh  pp»
In this formula T is the propeller thrust, Po + pgh is the static pressure at the shaft centre line, Pp is the vapour pressure and K is a constant to which the following figures apply:
K = 0 to 0.1 for twinscrew ships
K = 0.2 for singlescrew ships
For sea water of 15 degrees centigrade the value of
Po  Pp is 99047 N/m ^{2} • The given prediction equations are consistent with a shafting efficiency of
flS:::P _{D}_{/}_{P}_{S} = 0.99
.
and reflect ideal trial conditions, implying:
 no wind, waves and swell,
 deep water with a density of 1025 kg/m ^{3} and a temperature of IS degrees centigrade and
 a clean hull" and propeller with a surface roughness according to modem standards.
The shaft power can now be determined from:
/
Ps :::p£ (flRflofls
I

t
lw)
5. Numerical example
The performance characteristics of a hypothetical singlescrew ship are calculated for a speed of 25 knots. The calculations are made for the various resistance components and the propulsion factors, successively. The main ship particulars are listed in the Table on the next page:
170
Main ship characteristics
_{l}_{e}_{n}_{g}_{t}_{h} _{o}_{n} _{w}_{a}_{t}_{e}_{r}_{l}_{i}_{n}_{e}
length between perpendiculars breadth moulded
draught
draught
displacement volume moulded longitudinal centre of buoyancy
transverse bulb area centre of bulb area above keel line
midship section waterplane area
transom area wetted area appendages
stem shape parameter propeller diameter number of propeller blades clearance propeller with keel line _{s}_{h}_{i}_{p} _{s}_{p}_{e}_{e}_{d}
moulded
moulded
on F.P. on A.P.
coefficient
coefficient
_{L}
_{L} _{p}_{p}
B
^{T} _{F}
_{T}_{A}
_{V}
_{2}_{0}_{5}_{.}_{0}_{0} _{m}
_{2}_{0}_{0}_{.}_{0}_{0}
_{m} 32.00 m, _{1}_{0}_{.}_{0}_{0} _{m}
_{1}_{0}_{.}_{0}_{0} 
_{m} 
_{3}_{7}_{5}_{0}_{0} 
_{m} ^{3} 
_{2}_{.}_{0}_{2}_{%} _{a}_{f}_{t} _{o}_{f} _{~}_{p}_{~}
A
_{B}_{r}
_{l}_{i}_{B}
_{C}_{M}
_{C}
_{w}_{p}
_{A}_{T}
_{S}_{A} _{p}_{p}
_{C} _{s}_{1}_{c}_{m}
_{D}
_{Z}
V
20.0
_{4}_{.}_{0}
_{0}_{.}_{9}_{8}_{0}
_{0}_{.}_{7}_{5}_{0}
16.0
_{5}_{0}_{.}_{0}
_{1}_{0}_{.}_{0}
m
_{m}
m ^{2}
_{m} ^{2}
_{8}_{.}_{0}_{0} _{m}
4
_{a}_{.}_{2}_{0}_{m}
_{2}_{5}_{.}_{0} _{k}_{n}_{o}_{t}_{s}
References
^{•}
1. Holtrop, J. and Mennen, G.GJ., 'A statistical power predic
tion method', International Shipbuilding Progress, Vol. 25, October 1978.
2. OoslcrveId. M.W.C. and Oossancn. P. van; 'Further
^{c}^{o}^{m}^{p}^{u}^{t}^{e}^{r}
analyzed data of the Wageningen Bscrew series'.Jnternatlon al Shipbuilding Progress, July 1975.
3. Proceedings 15th rrrc, The Hague, 1978.
•
The calculations with the statistical method re
the following coefficients and powering
suIted
into
A
characteristics listed in the next Table:
_{F}_{"}
_{C} _{p}
_{L} _{R}
_{l}_{c}_{b}
_{c} _{1}_{2}
_{c} _{1}_{3}
1+ k _{1}
_{S}
_{C} _{F}
R _{F}
_{1}_{+} _{k} _{2}
_{R}_{A} _{p}_{p}
_{~}_{7}
•
'E
_{C}_{l}
c _{3}
_{c} _{2}
_{C}_{s}
m _{1}
^{c} 15
m _{2}
_{>}
R _{w}
_{P}_{s}
r;
_{R} _{s}
_{=}_{0}_{.}_{2}_{8}_{6}_{8}
_{=}_{0}_{.}_{5}_{8}_{3}_{3}
_{=}_{'} _{8}_{1}_{.}_{3}_{8}_{5} _{m}
_{=} _{} _{O}_{.} _{7}_{5}_{%} _{(}_{{}_{~}_{~}_{i}_{r}_{~}
_{:}_{:} _{0}_{.}_{5}_{1}_{0}_{2}
=1.030
_{=}_{1}_{.}_{1}_{5}_{6}
_{:}_{:}_{:} _{7}_{3}_{8}_{1}_{.}_{4}_{5} _{m} ^{2} :: 0.001390 = 869.63 kN
_{=}_{1}_{.}_{5}_{0}
8.83 kN ::: 0.1561 12.08 degrees ::: 1.398 ::: 0.02119 = 0.7595
=
_{=}_{0}_{.}_{9}_{5}_{9}_{2}
_{=} _{} _{2}_{.}_{1}_{2}_{7}_{4}
1.69385
=  0.17087 :: 0.6513 =: 557.11 kN
_{"}_{"} _{0}_{.}_{6}_{2}_{6}_{1}
= 1.5084
=: 0.049 kN
=
_{F} _{n}_{T}
_{R} _{r}_{R}
_{c} _{4}
_{C}_{A}
_{R}_{A}
R _{t} _{O}_{l} _{a}_{l}
_{P}_{E}
_{C}_{v}
_{c} _{9}
_{c} _{n}
_{C} _{n}
w
^{c} _{l}_{O}
(
_{T}
_{A}_{£}_{/}_{A} _{o}
_{T}_{l}_{R}
_{c} _{O} _{•} _{7}_{S}
_{(}_{!}_{c}_{0}_{.}_{7}_{S}
_{C}_{.}_{C} _{D}
_{=}_{5}_{.}_{4}_{3}_{3}
_{=} _{0}_{.}_{0}_{0} _{k}_{N} _{=} _{0}_{.}_{0}_{4} _{:}_{:} _{0}_{.}_{0}_{0}_{0}_{3}_{5}_{2}
_{=}_{~}_{.}_{2}_{1}_{.}_{9}_{8} _{k}_{N}
=1793.26 kN _{=}_{2}_{3}_{0}_{6}_{3} _{k}_{W}
_{=}_{0}_{.}_{0}_{0}_{1}_{9}_{6}_{3}
_{=} _{1}_{4}_{.}_{5}_{0}_{0} _{=} _{1}_{.}_{2}_{5}_{0}
_{=}_{0}_{.}_{5}_{4}_{7}_{7}
_{=}_{0}_{.}_{2}_{5}_{8}_{4}
:: 0.15610 ::: 0.1747 2172.75 kN ::: 0.7393
0.9931
:: 3.065 m
=0.03524
= 0.000956
From the Bseries ^{p}^{o}^{l}^{y}^{n}^{o}^{m}^{i}^{a}^{l}^{s}^{:}
_{K} _{T}_{s}
n
_{K} _{Q}_{o}
_{1}_{}}_{o}
_{P}_{s}
_{:}_{:}_{:} _{0}_{.}_{1}_{8}_{8}_{0}_{2}
"" 1.6594 Hz
::: 0.033275 =: 0.6461 _{=} _{3}_{2}_{6}_{2}_{1} _{k}_{W}
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