"Life of Photovoltaic (PV) Systems"

By Peter Lawley
Business Development Manager
Pacific Solar Pty Limited
Sydney, Australia
2 May 2003

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on the life of PV systems, principally PV modules and inverters.
In doing so, it provides evidence that the deeming period for PV systems under Australia's
"Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000" and specifically under the associated “Renewable
Energy (Electricity) Regulations 2001”, should be extended from the current 5 years to 20 years.

1 Background
PV modules were first used in the US space program to power satellites in the late 1950's. As
their price fell they found increasing use in terrestrial applications initially to provide electricity
for domestic and industrial applications in remote locations where there was no electricity
supply. By the 1980's some utilities were using PV in large grid-connected solar forms1. The
1990's saw the increasing use of PV in grid-connected rooftop programs, first in Germany
through the "1,000 Rooftop Program2", then in California in the SMUD PV Pioneer Program and
Japan through the "New Sunshine Program3".

By 2001 there was 982 MW4 of PV deployed in IEA reporting countries, accounting for an
estimated two-thirds of worldwide deployment 5. In 2002 annual PV module shipments reached
512 MW, an increase of 31% over 2001 and part of the trend that has seen PV sales growing at

MW 550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

"5 year compound growth rate is 32.5% p.a."

an average of 33% per year for the last 5 years as illustrated in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Annual shipments of PV modules6.

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Approximately 87% of existing PV installations were manufactured in the last 8 years and 56%
in the last 3 years7, such has been the growth rate over these periods.

Grid-connected applications have grown rapidly in the last decade and in 2001 accounted for
68% of PV systems in reporting IEA countries8. Worldwide grid-connected applications now
account for over half of installed PV systems.

Against this background, the paper focuses on the evidence for the life expectancy of PV
modules and inverters, the active components of grid-connected PV systems 9.

2 Indicators of PV System Life

It is postulated that the best indicator of the life expectancy of new PV modules is the
manufacturer's warranty. The next best indicator is field experience gathered over 20 plus years
of deployment study by independent research establishments.

Obviously PV modules manufactured over 20 years ago do not incorporate the experience gained
from over 20 years of manufacture at accelerating rates and the continuous development
embodied in PV modules manufactured today. Field experience does however point to
degradation mechanisms that cause a reduction in PV module output with age and that may
ultimately cause PV module failure.

However, in the case of inverters, it will be shown that warranty periods do not reflect their life
and that field experience is a better indicator.

3 Manufacturer's Warranties

3.1 PV Modules

With over 40 years of PV manufacturing experience, PV manufacturers today offer warranties of

20 to 25 years for PV power modules typically used in grid-connected and remote power (ie: off-
grid) applications. The warranties of the Top 10 PV manufacturers in 2002 are shown in Figure
2 below. These manufacturers accounted for over 89% of the 512 MW of production in 2002.

Manufacturer Warranty (Years / % of nominated or 2002 Manufacture

minimum power output) MW10
Sharp 2511 123
BP Solar 12/90% 25/80% 66.8
Kyocera 12/90% 25/80% 60
Shell Solar 10/90% 20-25/80% 47.5
Sanyo 35
AstroPower 20/80% 29.7
RWE Schott 10/90% 25/80% 29.5
Isofoton 25/80% 27.4
Mitsubishi 10/90% 25/80% 24
Photowatt 25/80% 15

Figure 2: Warranties of Top 10 PV Module Manufacturers for typical power modules12.

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The warranty typically states that the PV module will produce more than 80% of its nominated
or minimum power output at the end of the warranty period. Many manufacturers also guarantee
an output, typically 90%, at the end of 10 or 12 years.

From the above, implied PV module output degradation vary from 1% per year (for 20-year
warranties) down to 0.8% per year (for 25 year warranties).

3.2 Inverters

Inverter manufacturers typically offer 2 to 5 year warranties with optional extension as indicated
in Figure 3 below for selected inverters less than 10kW in capacity.

Manufacturer Warranty
SMA 2 years, optional 5 and 10 years
Siemens 2 years, optional 5 years
Fronius 2 years, optional 5 and 10 years
Sharp 1 year (see also footnote 11)
Power Solutions 2 years
Xantrex 5 years
NKF 5 years
Pacific Solar 7 years, optional 12 years

Figure 3: Inverter manufacturer warranties13.

There is an increasing trend to offer longer warranty periods, in part driven by competition and
regulatory compliance. For example, the California Energy Commission requires 5 year
warranties on inverters for rooftop PV systems to be eligible for the state PV rebate of US$4.50
per watt. They must also be "UL listed" for connection to electricity grids. "UL listing" by
Underwriters Laboratory is a rigorous quality standard of the insurance industry that is driving
increasing safety and reliability of PV systems as a whole.

At first instance there is an obvious mismatch between the "2 to 5" year warranties of inverters
and the "20-25" year warranties for PV modules. However it can be argued that as electronic
products, inverters more closely follow warranty periods of the electronics appliance industry,
typically 1 to 3 years. Warranty periods for such appliances do not reflect their life, but rather
cover the infantile failure period. Most such products have lives many times that of their
warranty period.

It can also be argued that as inverters typically only represent about 10% of the installed cost of
grid-connected PV rooftop system they will be repaired or replaced should they fail, given the
high level of investment in the PV system.

3.3 PV Systems

Warranties for PV system are often expressed in similar terms to that of other household installed
products such as solar water heaters and washing machines, ie:
• x years for the major active component (ie: PV module)
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• y years for the "drive train" (ie: the inverter)
• z years for ancillary hardware (ie: mounting hardware and cabling)
• w years for labour (ie: installation).

4 Field Experience

4.1 PV Modules

A number of studies dating back to the early 1990's have been undertaken by Sandia National
Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in the USA on field
experience with PV modules, especially degradation and failure mechanisms.

A combined paper by Quintana and King (Sandia) and McMahon & Osterwald (NREL)
summarises several years of PV module reliability studies performed by the two groups14. They
found PV module performance losses of:
• 1-2% per year in systems tested over a ten-year period from the mid-eighties to the mid-
nineties.
• 0.5% per year for multicrystalline PV modules continuously exposed outdoors for eight
years
• 0.7% per year for single and multicrystalline PV modules15.

The latter two figures suggest the manufacturer's performance warranties are slightly
conservative as expected.

Quintana et al have grouped degradation mechanisms giving rise to the above performance losses
that may ultimately lead to module failure, into the following five categories16:
• degradation of module "packaging" materials such as glass breakage17 and "browning"
of the EVA encapsulant between the glass and the solar cells due to UV exposure
• loss of adhesion causing delamination mainly between the glass and encapsulant or the
encapsulant and the solar cells and eventually leading to cell overheating
• interconnect degradation of the soldier joints due to thermomechanical fatigue
• moisture intrusion through the module backsheet or through edges of the modules
causing contact corrosion and increased electrical resistance
• semiconductor device degradation, especially with amorphous silicon modules18, but
rare in crystalline silicon modules.

An increasing understanding of the above degradation mechanisms has enabled PV

manufacturers to improve their designs and production techniques as reflected in the long
warranty periods now being offered.

4.2 Inverters & Systems

Large scale deployment of grid-connected rooftop PV systems commenced in the early 1990's as
previously noted. One electricity utility with an early and extensive involvement in this
application was the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) which between 1993 and
1995 installed over 300 grid-connected rooftop systems under their PV Pioneer program as
shown in Figure 4 below.

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PV Pioneer Systems kW PV modules
Phase Installed
1993 108 400 8288
1994 119 400 4928
1995-RMI 25 87 1872
1995-Placer 80 329 6216
Total 332 1216 21,304
*Each system typically had 1 inverter.
Figure 4: SMUD early PV Pioneer 1 Program19.

An extensive 12 month performance monitoring and appraisal study over the period August 1996
to July 1997 reported the following20 mean time between failures:
• 7 years for 1993 Pioneer phase
• 15.8 years for 1994 Pioneer phase
• 11.2 years for 1995 (R) Pioneer phase
• 16.2 years for 1995 (P) Pioneer phase

The study reports that inverter failure was the main cause of system downtime. Since that time
there has been a number of factors that has increased the life and reliability of inverters. These
include:
• a large increase in the number of inverter manufacturers including the entry of such major
electronics firms as Sharp, Sanyo, Siemens and Philips
• more than a thousand-fold increase in the number of inverters manufactured
• the adoption of grid-connection rules and standards in most IEA countries that has
enabled inverter manufacturers to standardise protection and grid-protocol functions
incorporated in inverters
• greater utility experience with grid-connected inverters enabling more realistic protection
settings to be nominated that do not cause nuisance inverter shutdowns
• the incorporation of output and/or status indicators in inverters making it easier for
owners to detect inverter problems.

5 Energy Output
The power capacity or power output of PV modules is measured in watts peak (Wp) under
Standard Test Conditions of solar irradiance of 1 kW/m2, temperature 25°C and a sunlight
spectrum defined as corresponding to atmospheric conditions known as Air Mass 1.5 Global.

PV power modules typically range in capacity from 60Wp to 185Wp21 and grid-connected
rooftop PV systems typically range in capacity from 1 kWp to 4 kWp.

The energy (electricity) output from a PV system varies mainly with insolation (sunlight) levels
and to a minor extent with PV module temperature. An increasingly accepted measure of a PV
system's energy output is in terms of kWhAC of AC electricity produced in a year per kWp of
system capacity (this is abbreviated to kWh/kW in this report). This measure encompasses the
conversion losses from DC to AC electricity and allows for daily and seasonal changes in
insolation levels over the year.

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Energy output levels for grid-connected PV systems in Australia's main cities is given in the
Figure 5 below together with the deemed output under the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act
2000.

City Electricity Output (kWh/kW)

22
Optimal Deemed
Brisbane 1,500 1,382
Sydney 1,500 1,382
Canberra 1,570 1,382
Melbourne 1,300 1,185
Hobart 1,270 1,185
Adelaide 1,600 1,382
Perth 1,600 1,382

Figure 5: Optimal and deemed annual energy output for a 1 kW grid-connected PV system.

Studies and modelling undertaken by Coelacanth Consulting for Pacific Solar indicate that
annual energy output is highly tolerant of non-optimal PV system orientation. For example, the
optimal orientation and tilt of a PV system in Sydney to achieve maximum annual energy output
is due north at an angle of 31° from the horizontal. However 90% of this output can be achieved
with PV systems at orientations varying from NE to NW at tilt angles from 5° to 45°
approximately, the pitch range of virtually all roofs, assuming no significant shading.

Over a 20-year period the output from a PV system with a capacity of 1 kW installed within 95%
of the optimal in Sydney should be 27 MWh assuming a PV module degradation factor of 0.5%
per year. This compares to a 20-year deemed output of 27.6 MWh. In Perth, such a system
should produce 28.9 MW against a deemed output of 27.6 MWh. This is summarised in Figure 6
below for Australia's main capital cities together with the RECs that would be created at time of
installation with 20-year deeming.

City Electricity output over 20-years* Variance RECs

(MWh/kW) (Actual- (20-year
Estimated Deemed Deemed) deeming)
Brisbane 27.1 27.6 -0.6 27
Sydney 27.1 27.6 -0.6 27
Canberra 28.3 27.6 0.7 27
Melbourne 23.4 23.7 -0.3 23
Hobart 22.9 23.7 -0.8 23
Adelaide 28.8 27.6 1.2 27
Perth 28.8 27.6 1.2 27
*Assuming 0.5% p.a. PV module degradation and insolation levels of 95% of the optimal.

Figure 6: Estimated vs deemed 20-year PV system energy outputs for main Australian cities.

As can be seen from Figure 6, there is a good fit between the estimated 20-year outputs of PV
systems and that deemed using the deeming rates in the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act
2000. In all cases, except Hobart, the number of RECs that would be created (at 1 REC per
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MWh) from the estimated output is just greater than or the same as the number created using the
deeming rates.

6 Summary & Conclusions

1. Given manufacturer's warranties and field experience, it is not unreasonable to expect
lifetimes in excess of 25 years for grid-connected PV systems assuming any failed
inverters are repaired or replaced.
2. Given module degradation rates of 0.5% per year and PV systems installed at 95% of
optimal, estimated energy outputs of PV systems over a 20-year period agree very closely
with deemed energy outputs under the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000 for the
same period.

7 Recommendations
It is recommended that the “Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000” and more specifically, the
associated “Renewable Energy (Electricity) Regulations 2001”, be amended to increase the
deeming period from the current 5 years23 to a once-off 20 years from the time of installation for
PV systems up to 100 kW in capacity.

1
For example, ENEL (3 MW) in Italy and SMUD in the USA.
2
Germany's "1,000 Rooftop Program" ran from 1991 to 1995 and resulted in 2,500 installations on residential
rooftops.
3
Japan's "New Sunshine Program" commenced in 1994 and has resulted in over 81,000 installations (over 300 MW)
by April 2002 ("PV Activities in Japan" Osama Ikki, Vol. 8, No. 5, May 2002).
4
"Trends in Photovoltaic Applications in selected IEA countries between 1992 and 2001". Report IEA-PVPVT1-
I1:2002 page 6. The 20 IEA reporting countries are Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK and
USA.
5
Estimated worldwide installed capacity was 931 MW end 1999 compared with 520 MW in reporting IEA
countries. To end 2001 a further 462 MW was installed in IEA countries from world shipments totalling 678 MW in
2000 and 2001. (Calculations from data in references 4 and 6).
6
"PV News", Paul D Maycock, March 2003, Volume 22 / No.3, page 1.
7
Calculated from data in references 4 and 6.
8
"Trends in PV Applications" opp. cit page 5
9
PV modules produce DC electricity, typically in the range 12V to 48V determined by the number of cells and their
interconnection in series and parallel. Inverters convert this DC electricity to AC electricity to run conventional
appliances. Grid-connected inverters also incorporate protection and protocol systems required by electricity
utilities for connection to the local electricity supply. Remote or off-grid systems also incorporate charge controllers
and batteries for storage. Most such batteries are deep discharge lead acid types with a life of between 5 and 10
years according to the above cited IEA publication (page 23).
10
"PV News" opp. cit page 2.
11
“Bringing Solar Power Home”, Sharp Electronics Corporation, USA 2003 (SSD-03-001) offers “25-year solar
module warranty/5-year system warranty”
12
"Photon International", February 2003 (2/2003) pp. 34-41.
13
"Photon International", April 2003 (4/2003) pp. 54-57.
14
"Commonly Observed Degradation in Field-Aged Photovoltaic Modules", M. Quintana, D. King, T. McMahon &
C. Osterwald, 2002, 0-7803-7471-1/02 IEEE.
15
Single and multicrystalline PV modules dominate PV manufacture today, accounting for 84% of all PV module
manufacture in 2002 according to Maycock (opp. cit.) p.4.
16
Quintana et al, opp. cit pp. 1436-1438.
17
Standard PV module tests require a PV module to withstand the impact of ice balls 2.54cm in diameter travelling
at 23m/s (82.8 km/hr).

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18
Amorphous silicon PV modules accounted for only 3.9% of PV module production in 2002 according to Maycock
(opp. cit) p.4.
19
"Photovoltaic System Reliability", A Marsh, C Ateilty, S Hester, D Greenbert, D Osborn, D Collier, 1997 IEEE 0-
7803-3767-0/97, page 1051.
20
"Photovoltaic System Reliability" opp. cit. pp 1052-53.
21
"Photon International", opp. cit. ref.11
22
Coelacanth Consulting for Pacific Solar.
23
Under the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000, the deeming period for REC creation for PV systems under
10 kW installed after March 2001 is 5 years with redeeming for 5 years every 5 year period thereafter. In the
example given in Section 5, this results in 6 RECs being created at time of installation and a total of 24 RECs over a
20-year period vs 27 RECs for 20-year deeming at time of installation.

END

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