Predict Crime Rate in Chicago - Ipynb

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"name": "Project 3 - Predict Crime Rate in Chicago.ipynb",
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"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {
"id": "ejxogYW528Dz",
"colab_type": "text"
},
"source": [
"# PREDICTING CRIME RATE IN CHICAGO USING FACEBOOK PROPHET \n",
"\n",
"\n"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"metadata": {
"id": "w1n4oSIA4H1j",
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"height": 34
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"outputId": "c03001bd-a263-45b0-e3df-9a5d776730db"
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"source": [
"!pwd"
],
"execution_count": 4,
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"/content\n"
],
"name": "stdout"
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "kZhm9ZzM28D3",
},
"source": [
"# STEP #0: PROBLEM STATEMENT"
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "B_oRUsFg28D6",
},
"source": [
"\n",
"- The Chicago Crime dataset contains a summary of the reported crimes
occurred in the City of Chicago from 2001 to 2017. \n",
"- Dataset has been obtained from the Chicago Police Department's CLEAR
(Citizen Law Enforcement Analysis and Reporting) system.\n",
"- Dataset contains the following columns: \n",
" - ID: Unique identifier for the record.\n",
" - Case Number: The Chicago Police Department RD Number (Records
Division Number), which is unique to the incident.\n",
" - Date: Date when the incident occurred.\n",
" - Block: address where the incident occurred\n",
" - IUCR: The Illinois Unifrom Crime Reporting code.\n",
" - Primary Type: The primary description of the IUCR code.\n",
" - Description: The secondary description of the IUCR code, a
subcategory of the primary description.\n",
" - Location Description: Description of the location where the incident
occurred.\n",
" - Arrest: Indicates whether an arrest was made.\n",
" - Domestic: Indicates whether the incident was domestic-related as
defined by the Illinois Domestic Violence Act.\n",
" - Beat: Indicates the beat where the incident occurred. A beat is the
smallest police geographic area – each beat has a dedicated police beat car. \n",
" - District: Indicates the police district where the incident occurred.
\n",
" - Ward: The ward (City Council district) where the incident
occurred. \n",
" - Community Area: Indicates the community area where the incident
occurred. Chicago has 77 community areas. \n",
" - FBI Code: Indicates the crime classification as outlined in the
FBI's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS). \n",
" - X Coordinate: The x coordinate of the location where the incident
occurred in State Plane Illinois East NAD 1983 projection. \n",
" - Y Coordinate: The y coordinate of the location where the incident
occurred in State Plane Illinois East NAD 1983 projection. \n",
" - Year: Year the incident occurred.\n",
" - Updated On: Date and time the record was last updated.\n",
" - Latitude: The latitude of the location where the incident occurred.
This location is shifted from the actual location for partial redaction but falls
on the same block.\n",
" - Longitude: The longitude of the location where the incident
occurred. This location is shifted from the actual location for partial redaction
but falls on the same block.\n",
" - Location: The location where the incident occurred in a format that
allows for creation of maps and other geographic operations on this data portal.
This location is shifted from the actual location for partial redaction but falls
on the same block.\n",
"- Datasource: https://www.kaggle.com/currie32/crimes-in-chicago"
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "DMCSQKXq28D7",
},
"source": [
"- Prophet is open source software released by Facebook’s Core Data Science
team.\n",
"\n",
"- Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an
additive model where non-linear trends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily
seasonality, plus holiday effects. \n",
"\n",
"- Prophet works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects
and several seasons of historical data. \n",
"\n",
"- For more information, please check this out:
https://research.fb.com/prophet-forecasting-at-scale/\n",
"https://facebook.github.io/prophet/docs/quick_start.html#python-api\n"
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "jb2q21Lp28D8",
},
"source": [
"# STEP #1: IMPORTING DATA"
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "t2yhUCYP28D-",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"import pandas as pd \n",
"import numpy as np \n",
"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
"import random\n",
"import seaborn as sns\n",
"from fbprophet import Prophet"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "jLPfwSU83Sev",
"colab": {
"height": 122
},
"outputId": "0120db9f-1267-4d49-f356-b2c8d56c6cd0"
},
"source": [
"from google.colab import drive\n",
"drive.mount('/content/drive')"
],
"outputs": [
{
"text": [
"Go to this URL in a browser:
https://accounts.google.com/o/oauth2/auth?client_id=947318989803-
6bn6qk8qdgf4n4g3pfee6491hc0brc4i.apps.googleusercontent.com&redirect_uri=urn%3aietf
%3awg%3aoauth%3a2.0%3aoob&response_type=code&scope=email%20https%3a%2f
%2fwww.googleapis.com%2fauth%2fdocs.test%20https%3a%2f%2fwww.googleapis.com%2fauth
%2fdrive%20https%3a%2f%2fwww.googleapis.com%2fauth%2fdrive.photos.readonly%20https
%3a%2f%2fwww.googleapis.com%2fauth%2fpeopleapi.readonly\n",
"\n",
"Enter your authorization code:\n",
"··········\n",
"Mounted at /content/drive\n"
],
"name": "stdout"
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "pREeYBRq28EE",
"colab": {
"height": 51
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"outputId": "6917a225-87e7-4128-b462-d89d0513a59c"
},
"source": [
"# dataframes creation for both training and testing datasets \n",
"path=\""\n",
"chicago_df_1 = pd.read_csv(path+'Chicago_Crimes_2005_to_2007.csv',
error_bad_lines=False)\n",
error_bad_lines=False)\n",
error_bad_lines=False)\n"
],
"outputs": [
{
"text": [
"b'Skipping line 533719: expected 23 fields, saw 24\\n'\n",
"b'Skipping line 1149094: expected 23 fields, saw 41\\n'\n"
],
"name": "stderr"
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "Gz1RcFqQ28EJ",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"\n",
"chicago_df = pd.concat([chicago_df_1, chicago_df_2, chicago_df_3],
ignore_index=False, axis=0)\n"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "JbBguiiN28EN",
},
"source": [
"# STEP #2: EXPLORING THE DATASET "
]
},
{
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"colab": {
"height": 411
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"outputId": "4c69e4ac-b82d-463b-aae1-2ba05af4288a"
},
"source": [
"# Let's view the head of the training dataset\n",
"chicago_df.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"output_type": "execute_result",
"data": {
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" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Unnamed: 0</th>\n",
" <th>ID</th>\n",
" <th>Case Number</th>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th>Block</th>\n",
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" <th>Y Coordinate</th>\n",
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" <th>Latitude</th>\n",
" <th>Longitude</th>\n",
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" <td>HM274058</td>\n",
" <td>04/02/2006 01:00:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>055XX N MANGO AVE</td>\n",
" <td>2825</td>\n",
" <td>OTHER OFFENSE</td>\n",
" <td>HARASSMENT BY TELEPHONE</td>\n",
" <td>RESIDENCE</td>\n",
" <td>False</td>\n",
" <td>1622</td>\n",
" <td>16.0</td>\n",
" <td>45.0</td>\n",
" <td>11.0</td>\n",
" <td>26</td>\n",
" <td>1136872.0</td>\n",
" <td>1936499.0</td>\n",
" <td>2006</td>\n",
" <td>04/15/2016 08:55:02 AM</td>\n",
" <td>41.981913</td>\n",
" <td>-87.771996</td>\n",
" <td>(41.981912692, -87.771996382)</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>1</td>\n",
" <td>4673627</td>\n",
" <td>HM202199</td>\n",
" <td>02/26/2006 01:40:48 PM</td>\n",
" <td>065XX S RHODES AVE</td>\n",
" <td>2017</td>\n",
" <td>NARCOTICS</td>\n",
" <td>MANU/DELIVER:CRACK</td>\n",
" <td>SIDEWALK</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>321</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>20.0</td>\n",
" <td>42.0</td>\n",
" <td>18</td>\n",
" <td>1181027.0</td>\n",
" <td>1861693.0</td>\n",
" <td>2006</td>\n",
" <td>04/15/2016 08:55:02 AM</td>\n",
" <td>41.775733</td>\n",
" <td>-87.611920</td>\n",
" <td>(41.775732538, -87.611919814)</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>2</td>\n",
" <td>4673628</td>\n",
" <td>HM113861</td>\n",
" <td>01/08/2006 11:16:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>013XX E 69TH ST</td>\n",
" <td>051A</td>\n",
" <td>ASSAULT</td>\n",
" <td>AGGRAVATED: HANDGUN</td>\n",
" <td>OTHER</td>\n",
" <td>321</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>5.0</td>\n",
" <td>69.0</td>\n",
" <td>04A</td>\n",
" <td>1186023.0</td>\n",
" <td>1859609.0</td>\n",
" <td>2006</td>\n",
" <td>04/15/2016 08:55:02 AM</td>\n",
" <td>41.769897</td>\n",
" <td>-87.593671</td>\n",
" <td>(41.769897392, -87.593670899)</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>4</td>\n",
" <td>4673629</td>\n",
" <td>HM274049</td>\n",
" <td>04/05/2006 06:45:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>061XX W NEWPORT AVE</td>\n",
" <td>0460</td>\n",
" <td>BATTERY</td>\n",
" <td>SIMPLE</td>\n",
" <td>1633</td>\n",
" <td>16.0</td>\n",
" <td>38.0</td>\n",
" <td>17.0</td>\n",
" <td>08B</td>\n",
" <td>1134772.0</td>\n",
" <td>1922299.0</td>\n",
" <td>2006</td>\n",
" <td>04/15/2016 08:55:02 AM</td>\n",
" <td>41.942984</td>\n",
" <td>-87.780057</td>\n",
" <td>(41.942984005, -87.780056951)</td>\n",
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" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>5</td>\n",
" <td>4673630</td>\n",
" <td>HM187120</td>\n",
" <td>02/17/2006 09:03:14 PM</td>\n",
" <td>037XX W 60TH ST</td>\n",
" <td>1811</td>\n",
" <td>POSS: CANNABIS 30GMS OR LESS</td>\n",
" <td>ALLEY</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>822</td>\n",
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
" <td>13.0</td>\n",
" <td>65.0</td>\n",
" <td>18</td>\n",
" <td>1152412.0</td>\n",
" <td>1864560.0</td>\n",
" <td>2006</td>\n",
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" <td>-87.716745</td>\n",
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" Unnamed: 0 ID ... Longitude
Location\n",
"0 0 4673626 ... -87.771996 (41.981912692,
-87.771996382)\n",
"1 1 4673627 ... -87.611920 (41.775732538,
-87.611919814)\n",
"2 2 4673628 ... -87.593671 (41.769897392,
-87.593670899)\n",
"3 4 4673629 ... -87.780057 (41.942984005,
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"\n",
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"metadata": {
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{
"metadata": {
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"colab": {
"height": 1000
},
"outputId": "03acbd86-1fbc-4b68-c2b6-911e3de89e97"
},
"source": [
"# Let's view the last elements in the training dataset\n",
"chicago_df.tail(20)"
],
"outputs": [
{
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" <th>1456694</th>\n",
" <td>6246478</td>\n",
" <td>10508650</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250022</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 05:00:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>078XX S MARSHFIELD AVE</td>\n",
" <td>031A</td>\n",
" <td>ROBBERY</td>\n",
" <td>ARMED: HANDGUN</td>\n",
" <td>STREET</td>\n",
" <td>611</td>\n",
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
" <td>17.0</td>\n",
" <td>71.0</td>\n",
" <td>03</td>\n",
" <td>1166708.0</td>\n",
" <td>1852625.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.751166</td>\n",
" <td>-87.664670</td>\n",
" <td>(41.751166357, -87.664670209)</td>\n",
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" <th>1456695</th>\n",
" <td>6246521</td>\n",
" <td>10508653</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250512</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:58:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>026XX W LE MOYNE ST</td>\n",
" <td>0520</td>\n",
" <td>AGGRAVATED:KNIFE/CUTTING INSTR</td>\n",
" <td>RESIDENTIAL YARD (FRONT/BACK)</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>1423</td>\n",
" <td>14.0</td>\n",
" <td>26.0</td>\n",
" <td>24.0</td>\n",
" <td>04A</td>\n",
" <td>1158381.0</td>\n",
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" <td>2016</td>\n",
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" <td>41.908427</td>\n",
" <td>-87.693623</td>\n",
" <td>(41.908426978, -87.693622615)</td>\n",
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" <td>10508656</td>\n",
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" <td>05/03/2016 03:15:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>014XX N OGDEN AVE</td>\n",
" <td>1720</td>\n",
" <td>OFFENSE INVOLVING CHILDREN</td>\n",
" <td>CONTRIBUTE DELINQUENCY OF A CHILD</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>1822</td>\n",
" <td>18.0</td>\n",
" <td>27.0</td>\n",
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
" <td>20</td>\n",
" <td>1171322.0</td>\n",
" <td>1909588.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.907378</td>\n",
" <td>-87.646092</td>\n",
" <td>(41.907378476, -87.64609233)</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456697</th>\n",
" <td>6247798</td>\n",
" <td>10508658</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250506</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:50:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>018XX S KEDZIE AVE</td>\n",
" <td>4625</td>\n",
" <td>PAROLE VIOLATION</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>1022</td>\n",
" <td>10.0</td>\n",
" <td>24.0</td>\n",
" <td>29.0</td>\n",
" <td>26</td>\n",
" <td>1155317.0</td>\n",
" <td>1890928.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.856510</td>\n",
" <td>-87.705387</td>\n",
" <td>(41.856510401, -87.705387422)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456698</th>\n",
" <td>6248016</td>\n",
" <td>10508659</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250499</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:38:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>038XX S PRINCETON AVE</td>\n",
" <td>0460</td>\n",
" <td>CHA PARKING LOT/GROUNDS</td>\n",
" <td>915</td>\n",
" <td>9.0</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>34.0</td>\n",
" <td>08B</td>\n",
" <td>1174922.0</td>\n",
" <td>1879297.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.824178</td>\n",
" <td>-87.633775</td>\n",
" <td>(41.82417802, -87.6337748)</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456699</th>\n",
" <td>6248192</td>\n",
" <td>10508661</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250344</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 08:44:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>070XX S WABASH AVE</td>\n",
" <td>041A</td>\n",
" <td>322</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
" <td>69.0</td>\n",
" <td>04B</td>\n",
" <td>1177941.0</td>\n",
" <td>1858411.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.766797</td>\n",
" <td>-87.623332</td>\n",
" <td>(41.766796861, -87.623332025)</td>\n",
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" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456700</th>\n",
" <td>6248278</td>\n",
" <td>10508662</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250477</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 08:00:00 AM</td>\n",
" <td>057XX S MICHIGAN AVE</td>\n",
" <td>5001</td>\n",
" <td>OTHER CRIME INVOLVING PROPERTY</td>\n",
" <td>APARTMENT</td>\n",
" <td>232</td>\n",
" <td>2.0</td>\n",
" <td>20.0</td>\n",
" <td>40.0</td>\n",
" <td>26</td>\n",
" <td>1178135.0</td>\n",
" <td>1867058.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.790521</td>\n",
" <td>-87.622359</td>\n",
" <td>(41.790520722, -87.622358898)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456701</th>\n",
" <td>6248713</td>\n",
" <td>10508663</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250466</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 10:10:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>033XX W MARQUETTE RD</td>\n",
" <td>1563</td>\n",
" <td>SEX OFFENSE</td>\n",
" <td>CRIMINAL SEXUAL ABUSE</td>\n",
" <td>831</td>\n",
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
" <td>15.0</td>\n",
" <td>66.0</td>\n",
" <td>17</td>\n",
" <td>1155359.0</td>\n",
" <td>1859995.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.771625</td>\n",
" <td>-87.706062</td>\n",
" <td>(41.771625308, -87.706062047)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456702</th>\n",
" <td>6248779</td>\n",
" <td>10508664</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250486</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:35:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>083XX S CARPENTER ST</td>\n",
" <td>0560</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>613</td>\n",
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
" <td>21.0</td>\n",
" <td>71.0</td>\n",
" <td>08A</td>\n",
" <td>1170770.0</td>\n",
" <td>1849485.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.742462</td>\n",
" <td>-87.649876</td>\n",
" <td>(41.742462184, -87.649876395)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456703</th>\n",
" <td>6248999</td>\n",
" <td>10508665</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250448</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 10:15:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>095XX S LOOMIS ST</td>\n",
" <td>1310</td>\n",
" <td>CRIMINAL DAMAGE</td>\n",
" <td>TO PROPERTY</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>2213</td>\n",
" <td>22.0</td>\n",
" <td>21.0</td>\n",
" <td>73.0</td>\n",
" <td>14</td>\n",
" <td>1168707.0</td>\n",
" <td>1841343.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.720164</td>\n",
" <td>-87.657669</td>\n",
" <td>(41.720164061, -87.657669427)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456704</th>\n",
" <td>6249417</td>\n",
" <td>10508666</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250497</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:30:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>053XX S PULASKI RD</td>\n",
" <td>0320</td>\n",
" <td>STRONGARM - NO WEAPON</td>\n",
" <td>815</td>\n",
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
" <td>23.0</td>\n",
" <td>62.0</td>\n",
" <td>03</td>\n",
" <td>1150606.0</td>\n",
" <td>1868988.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.796397</td>\n",
" <td>-87.723251</td>\n",
" <td>(41.79639731, -87.723251281)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456705</th>\n",
" <td>6249592</td>\n",
" <td>10508671</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250526</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:50:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>036XX E 106TH ST</td>\n",
" <td>502P</td>\n",
" <td>FALSE/STOLEN/ALTERED TRP</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>432</td>\n",
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
" <td>10.0</td>\n",
" <td>52.0</td>\n",
" <td>26</td>\n",
" <td>1202327.0</td>\n",
" <td>1835278.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.702731</td>\n",
" <td>-87.534736</td>\n",
" <td>(41.702731182, -87.534736413)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456706</th>\n",
" <td>6249615</td>\n",
" <td>10508672</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250441</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 10:25:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>071XX S MOZART ST</td>\n",
" <td>0460</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>831</td>\n",
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
" <td>18.0</td>\n",
" <td>66.0</td>\n",
" <td>08B</td>\n",
" <td>1158610.0</td>\n",
" <td>1857066.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.763522</td>\n",
" <td>-87.694225</td>\n",
" <td>(41.763522012, -87.69422464)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456707</th>\n",
" <td>6249936</td>\n",
" <td>10508675</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250502</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:00:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>085XX S MAY ST</td>\n",
" <td>0320</td>\n",
" <td>STRONGARM - NO WEAPON</td>\n",
" <td>613</td>\n",
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
" <td>21.0</td>\n",
" <td>71.0</td>\n",
" <td>03</td>\n",
" <td>1170146.0</td>\n",
" <td>1848113.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.738711</td>\n",
" <td>-87.652203</td>\n",
" <td>(41.738710803, -87.652202523)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456708</th>\n",
" <td>6250154</td>\n",
" <td>10508678</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250481</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:28:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>088XX S LAFLIN ST</td>\n",
" <td>041A</td>\n",
" <td>2221</td>\n",
" <td>22.0</td>\n",
" <td>21.0</td>\n",
" <td>71.0</td>\n",
" <td>04B</td>\n",
" <td>1167880.0</td>\n",
" <td>1846134.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.733329</td>\n",
" <td>-87.660561</td>\n",
" <td>(41.733329054, -87.660561367)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456709</th>\n",
" <td>6250330</td>\n",
" <td>10508679</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250507</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:33:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>026XX W 23RD PL</td>\n",
" <td>0486</td>\n",
" <td>DOMESTIC BATTERY SIMPLE</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>1034</td>\n",
" <td>10.0</td>\n",
" <td>28.0</td>\n",
" <td>30.0</td>\n",
" <td>08B</td>\n",
" <td>1159105.0</td>\n",
" <td>1888300.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.849222</td>\n",
" <td>-87.691556</td>\n",
" <td>(41.849222028, -87.69155551)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456710</th>\n",
" <td>6251089</td>\n",
" <td>10508680</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250491</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:30:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>073XX S HARVARD AVE</td>\n",
" <td>1310</td>\n",
" <td>CRIMINAL DAMAGE</td>\n",
" <td>TO PROPERTY</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>731</td>\n",
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
" <td>17.0</td>\n",
" <td>69.0</td>\n",
" <td>14</td>\n",
" <td>1175230.0</td>\n",
" <td>1856183.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.760744</td>\n",
" <td>-87.633335</td>\n",
" <td>(41.760743949, -87.63333531)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456711</th>\n",
" <td>6251349</td>\n",
" <td>10508681</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250479</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 12:15:00 AM</td>\n",
" <td>024XX W 63RD ST</td>\n",
" <td>041A</td>\n",
" <td>825</td>\n",
" <td>8.0</td>\n",
" <td>15.0</td>\n",
" <td>66.0</td>\n",
" <td>04B</td>\n",
" <td>1161027.0</td>\n",
" <td>1862810.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.779235</td>\n",
" <td>-87.685207</td>\n",
" <td>(41.779234743, -87.685207125)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456712</th>\n",
" <td>6253257</td>\n",
" <td>10508690</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250370</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 09:07:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>082XX S EXCHANGE AVE</td>\n",
" <td>0486</td>\n",
" <td>DOMESTIC BATTERY SIMPLE</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>423</td>\n",
" <td>4.0</td>\n",
" <td>7.0</td>\n",
" <td>46.0</td>\n",
" <td>08B</td>\n",
" <td>1197261.0</td>\n",
" <td>1850727.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.745252</td>\n",
" <td>-87.552773</td>\n",
" <td>(41.745251975, -87.552773464)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1456713</th>\n",
" <td>6253474</td>\n",
" <td>10508692</td>\n",
" <td>HZ250517</td>\n",
" <td>05/03/2016 11:38:00 PM</td>\n",
" <td>5007</td>\n",
" <td>OTHER WEAPONS VIOLATION</td>\n",
" <td>PARKING LOT/GARAGE(NON.RESID.)</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" <td>323</td>\n",
" <td>3.0</td>\n",
" <td>6.0</td>\n",
" <td>69.0</td>\n",
" <td>26</td>\n",
" <td>1178696.0</td>\n",
" <td>1855324.0</td>\n",
" <td>2016</td>\n",
" <td>05/10/2016 03:56:50 PM</td>\n",
" <td>41.758309</td>\n",
" <td>-87.620658</td>\n",
" <td>(41.75830866, -87.620658418)</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Unnamed: 0 ID ... Longitude
Location\n",
"1456694 6246478 10508650 ... -87.664670 (41.751166357,
-87.664670209)\n",
"1456695 6246521 10508653 ... -87.693623 (41.908426978,
-87.693622615)\n",
"1456696 6247563 10508656 ... -87.646092 (41.907378476,
-87.64609233)\n",
"1456697 6247798 10508658 ... -87.705387 (41.856510401,
-87.705387422)\n",
"1456698 6248016 10508659 ... -87.633775 (41.82417802,
-87.6337748)\n",
"1456699 6248192 10508661 ... -87.623332 (41.766796861,
-87.623332025)\n",
"1456700 6248278 10508662 ... -87.622359 (41.790520722,
-87.622358898)\n",
"1456701 6248713 10508663 ... -87.706062 (41.771625308,
-87.706062047)\n",
"1456702 6248779 10508664 ... -87.649876 (41.742462184,
-87.649876395)\n",
"1456703 6248999 10508665 ... -87.657669 (41.720164061,
-87.657669427)\n",
"1456704 6249417 10508666 ... -87.723251 (41.79639731,
-87.723251281)\n",
"1456705 6249592 10508671 ... -87.534736 (41.702731182,
-87.534736413)\n",
"1456706 6249615 10508672 ... -87.694225 (41.763522012,
-87.69422464)\n",
"1456707 6249936 10508675 ... -87.652203 (41.738710803,
-87.652202523)\n",
"1456708 6250154 10508678 ... -87.660561 (41.733329054,
-87.660561367)\n",
"1456709 6250330 10508679 ... -87.691556 (41.849222028,
-87.69155551)\n",
"1456710 6251089 10508680 ... -87.633335 (41.760743949,
-87.63333531)\n",
"1456711 6251349 10508681 ... -87.685207 (41.779234743,
-87.685207125)\n",
"1456712 6253257 10508690 ... -87.552773 (41.745251975,
-87.552773464)\n",
"1456713 6253474 10508692 ... -87.620658 (41.75830866,
-87.620658418)\n",
"\n",
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "zsC3F70e28EZ",
"colab": {
"height": 722
},
"outputId": "dffa8863-f5c0-42c7-b377-2cdf41fa469f"
},
"source": [
"# Let's see how many null elements are contained in the data\n",
"plt.figure(figsize=(10,10))\n",
"sns.heatmap(chicago_df.isnull(), cbar = False, cmap = 'YlGnBu')"
],
"outputs": [
{
"text": [
"INFO:numexpr.utils:NumExpr defaulting to 2 threads.\n"
],
"name": "stderr"
},
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f59d795db00>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
},
{
"output_type": "display_data",
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
"<Figure size 720x720 with 1 Axes>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "i6nkZVrP28Ed",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"# ID Case Number Date Block IUCR Primary Type Description Location
Description Arrest Domestic Beat District Ward Community Area FBI Code X Coordinate
Y Coordinate Year Updated On Latitude Longitude Location\n",
"chicago_df.drop(['Unnamed: 0', 'Case Number', 'ID', 'IUCR', 'X
Coordinate', 'Y Coordinate','Updated On','Year', 'FBI Code',
'Beat','Ward','Community Area', 'Location', 'District', 'Latitude' , 'Longitude'],
inplace=True, axis=1)"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "be3ii5Cv28Eg",
"colab": {
"height": 204
},
"outputId": "38f90ada-777c-4400-b6a1-9e0907078bd3"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>04/02/2006 01:00:00 PM</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>02/26/2006 01:40:48 PM</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>01/08/2006 11:16:00 PM</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>04/05/2006 06:45:00 PM</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>02/17/2006 09:03:14 PM</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Date Block ... Arrest
Domestic\n",
"0 04/02/2006 01:00:00 PM 055XX N MANGO AVE ... False
False\n",
"1 02/26/2006 01:40:48 PM 065XX S RHODES AVE ... True
False\n",
"2 01/08/2006 11:16:00 PM 013XX E 69TH ST ... False
False\n",
"3 04/05/2006 06:45:00 PM 061XX W NEWPORT AVE ... False
False\n",
"4 02/17/2006 09:03:14 PM 037XX W 60TH ST ... True
False\n",
"\n",
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "u66QwGqV28En",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"# Assembling a datetime by rearranging the dataframe column \"Date\". \n",
"\n",
"chicago_df.Date = pd.to_datetime(chicago_df.Date, format='%m/%d/%Y %I:%M:
%S %p')\n"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "ff_3W3m828Er",
"colab": {
"height": 204
},
"outputId": "ebc52d99-6e9f-4b25-9172-2b70b8c1ddf8"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>2006-04-02 13:00:00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>2006-02-26 13:40:48</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>2006-01-08 23:16:00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>2006-04-05 18:45:00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>2006-02-17 21:03:14</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Date Block ... Arrest Domestic\n",
"0 2006-04-02 13:00:00 055XX N MANGO AVE ... False False\n",
"1 2006-02-26 13:40:48 065XX S RHODES AVE ... True False\n",
"2 2006-01-08 23:16:00 013XX E 69TH ST ... False False\n",
"3 2006-04-05 18:45:00 061XX W NEWPORT AVE ... False False\n",
"4 2006-02-17 21:03:14 037XX W 60TH ST ... True False\n",
"\n",
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "gH7XjhJj28Eu",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"# setting the index to be the date \n",
"chicago_df.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(chicago_df.Date)\n"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "17Zwd2ba28Ey",
"colab": {
"height": 235
},
"outputId": "07d4fef4-3be2-423f-82fb-960d3ce2e466"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
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" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2006-04-02 13:00:00</th>\n",
" <td>2006-04-02 13:00:00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2006-02-26 13:40:48</th>\n",
" <td>2006-02-26 13:40:48</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2006-01-08 23:16:00</th>\n",
" <td>2006-01-08 23:16:00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2006-04-05 18:45:00</th>\n",
" <td>2006-04-05 18:45:00</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2006-02-17 21:03:14</th>\n",
" <td>2006-02-17 21:03:14</td>\n",
" <td>True</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Date Block ...
Arrest Domestic\n",
"Date ...
\n",
"2006-04-02 13:00:00 2006-04-02 13:00:00 055XX N MANGO AVE ...
False False\n",
"2006-02-26 13:40:48 2006-02-26 13:40:48 065XX S RHODES AVE ...
True False\n",
"2006-01-08 23:16:00 2006-01-08 23:16:00 013XX E 69TH ST ...
False False\n",
"2006-04-05 18:45:00 2006-04-05 18:45:00 061XX W NEWPORT AVE ...
False False\n",
"2006-02-17 21:03:14 2006-02-17 21:03:14 037XX W 60TH ST ...
True False\n",
"\n",
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "WWYoLSEX28E2",
"colab": {
"height": 612
},
"outputId": "21aaf86e-5dda-4d59-a01b-e297ef8391f9"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df['Primary Type'].value_counts()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"THEFT 1245111\n",
"BATTERY 1079178\n",
"CRIMINAL DAMAGE 702702\n",
"NARCOTICS 674831\n",
"BURGLARY 369056\n",
"OTHER OFFENSE 368169\n",
"ASSAULT 360244\n",
"MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 271624\n",
"ROBBERY 229467\n",
"DECEPTIVE PRACTICE 225180\n",
"CRIMINAL TRESPASS 171596\n",
"PROSTITUTION 60735\n",
"WEAPONS VIOLATION 60335\n",
"PUBLIC PEACE VIOLATION 48403\n",
"OFFENSE INVOLVING CHILDREN 40260\n",
"CRIM SEXUAL ASSAULT 22789\n",
"SEX OFFENSE 20172\n",
"GAMBLING 14755\n",
"INTERFERENCE WITH PUBLIC OFFICER 14009\n",
"LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION 12129\n",
"ARSON 9269\n",
"HOMICIDE 5879\n",
"KIDNAPPING 4734\n",
"INTIMIDATION 3324\n",
"STALKING 2866\n",
"OBSCENITY 422\n",
"PUBLIC INDECENCY 134\n",
"OTHER NARCOTIC VIOLATION 122\n",
"NON-CRIMINAL 96\n",
"CONCEALED CARRY LICENSE VIOLATION 90\n",
"NON - CRIMINAL 38\n",
"HUMAN TRAFFICKING 28\n",
"RITUALISM 16\n",
"NON-CRIMINAL (SUBJECT SPECIFIED) 4\n",
"Name: Primary Type, dtype: int64"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "SPF4RAT128E7",
"colab": {
"height": 289
},
"outputId": "aa616586-3ca1-4ec1-e75b-6f1c5ae4d6d0"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df['Primary Type'].value_counts().iloc[:15]"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"THEFT 1245111\n",
"BATTERY 1079178\n",
"CRIMINAL DAMAGE 702702\n",
"NARCOTICS 674831\n",
"BURGLARY 369056\n",
"OTHER OFFENSE 368169\n",
"ASSAULT 360244\n",
"MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT 271624\n",
"ROBBERY 229467\n",
"DECEPTIVE PRACTICE 225180\n",
"CRIMINAL TRESPASS 171596\n",
"PROSTITUTION 60735\n",
"WEAPONS VIOLATION 60335\n",
"PUBLIC PEACE VIOLATION 48403\n",
"OFFENSE INVOLVING CHILDREN 40260\n",
"Name: Primary Type, dtype: int64"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "9-lHvUQ028FA",
"colab": {
"height": 119
},
"outputId": "d8fbab0e-46ed-4e3e-b15e-3ba6ce7bc8e0"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df['Primary Type'].value_counts().iloc[:15].index"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Index(['THEFT', 'BATTERY', 'CRIMINAL DAMAGE', 'NARCOTICS',
'BURGLARY',\n",
" 'OTHER OFFENSE', 'ASSAULT', 'MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT',
'ROBBERY',\n",
" 'DECEPTIVE PRACTICE', 'CRIMINAL TRESPASS',
'PROSTITUTION',\n",
" 'WEAPONS VIOLATION', 'PUBLIC PEACE VIOLATION',\n",
" 'OFFENSE INVOLVING CHILDREN'],\n",
" dtype='object')"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "4qLi5T4M28FE",
"colab": {
"height": 623
},
"outputId": "d89d74d2-6104-4094-a0f3-ce590b8cb362"
},
"source": [
"plt.figure(figsize = (15, 10))\n",
"sns.countplot(y= 'Primary Type', data = chicago_df, order =
chicago_df['Primary Type'].value_counts().iloc[:15].index)"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f59d375d9e8>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
},
{
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"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "KNOVGPhb28FH",
"colab": {
"height": 623
},
"outputId": "d674d701-59e1-4edd-b87b-bbb8e8250820"
},
"source": [
"plt.figure(figsize = (15, 10))\n",
"sns.countplot(y= 'Location Description', data = chicago_df, order =
chicago_df['Location Description'].value_counts().iloc[:15].index)"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x7f59d36ef6a0>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
},
{
"data": {
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},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "9q5ISvwD28FL",
"colab": {
"height": 272
},
"outputId": "916ec089-e259-4434-e5ef-7cb9faa15de9"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df.resample('Y').size()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Date\n",
"2005-12-31 455811\n",
"2006-12-31 794684\n",
"2007-12-31 621848\n",
"2008-12-31 852053\n",
"2009-12-31 783900\n",
"2010-12-31 700691\n",
"2011-12-31 352066\n",
"2012-12-31 335670\n",
"2013-12-31 306703\n",
"2014-12-31 274527\n",
"2015-12-31 262995\n",
"2016-12-31 265462\n",
"2017-12-31 11357\n",
"Freq: A-DEC, dtype: int64"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "il0uLP1B28FP",
"colab": {
"height": 312
},
"outputId": "a9c559d4-80f5-4cdd-a96c-644a703c9839"
},
"source": [
"# Resample is a Convenience method for frequency conversion and resampling
of time series.\n",
"\n",
"plt.plot(chicago_df.resample('Y').size())\n",
"plt.title('Crimes Count Per Year')\n",
"plt.xlabel('Years')\n",
"plt.ylabel('Number of Crimes')"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Text(0, 0.5, 'Number of Crimes')"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
},
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "IZJg1JHh28FW",
"colab": {
"height": 238
},
"outputId": "6376ab2f-d0ae-429f-a6e9-fc38203c4bfc"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df.resample('M').size()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Date\n",
"2005-01-31 33983\n",
"2005-02-28 32042\n",
"2005-03-31 36970\n",
"2005-04-30 38963\n",
"2005-05-31 40572\n",
" ... \n",
"2016-09-30 23235\n",
"2016-10-31 23314\n",
"2016-11-30 21140\n",
"2016-12-31 19580\n",
"2017-01-31 11357\n",
"Freq: M, Length: 145, dtype: int64"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "cNTSK9mX28Fa",
"colab": {
"height": 312
},
"outputId": "bcd23543-7160-4766-c171-b7a6d7f36a6b"
},
"source": [
of time series.\n",
"\n",
"plt.plot(chicago_df.resample('M').size())\n",
"plt.title('Crimes Count Per Month')\n",
"plt.xlabel('Months')\n",
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
},
{
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"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "SSWTNzIj28Fd",
"colab": {},
"outputId": "c8099451-edfc-41ff-9654-56ed3ca67d28"
},
"source": [
"chicago_df.resample('Q').size()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"Date\n",
"2005-03-31 102995\n",
"2005-06-30 119769\n",
"2005-09-30 123550\n",
"2005-12-31 109497\n",
"2006-03-31 115389\n",
"2006-06-30 225489\n",
"2006-09-30 238423\n",
"2006-12-31 215383\n",
"2007-03-31 192791\n",
"2007-06-30 204361\n",
"2007-09-30 119086\n",
"2007-12-31 105610\n",
"2008-03-31 191523\n",
"2008-06-30 222331\n",
"2008-09-30 236695\n",
"2008-12-31 201504\n",
"2009-03-31 184055\n",
"2009-06-30 203916\n",
"2009-09-30 210446\n",
"2009-12-31 185483\n",
"2010-03-31 171848\n",
"2010-06-30 194453\n",
"2010-09-30 197116\n",
"2010-12-31 137274\n",
"2011-03-31 78167\n",
"2011-06-30 93064\n",
"2011-09-30 95835\n",
"2011-12-31 85000\n",
"2012-03-31 78574\n",
"2012-06-30 88283\n",
"2012-09-30 89685\n",
"2012-12-31 79128\n",
"2013-03-31 71651\n",
"2013-06-30 80776\n",
"2013-09-30 83510\n",
"2013-12-31 70766\n",
"2014-03-31 59964\n",
"2014-06-30 72991\n",
"2014-09-30 76090\n",
"2014-12-31 65482\n",
"2015-03-31 58503\n",
"2015-06-30 68239\n",
"2015-09-30 71782\n",
"2015-12-31 64471\n",
"2016-03-31 60843\n",
"2016-06-30 68085\n",
"2016-09-30 72500\n",
"2016-12-31 64034\n",
"2017-03-31 11357\n",
"Freq: Q-DEC, dtype: int64"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "O_7VFXh728Fg",
"colab": {
"height": 312
},
"outputId": "bcb9442f-9802-45dd-b1c9-41ff06dbdcf3"
},
"source": [
of time series.\n",
"\n",
"plt.plot(chicago_df.resample('Q').size())\n",
"plt.title('Crimes Count Per Quarter')\n",
"plt.xlabel('Quarters')\n",
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
},
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "KblirnQp28Fk",
},
"source": [
"# STEP #3: PREPARING THE DATA"
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "msujKkgE28Fk",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"chicago_prophet = chicago_df.resample('M').size().reset_index()"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "yaShH0sS28Fo",
"colab": {
"height": 204
},
"outputId": "da023db8-12a3-4a75-91a6-2d9912858724"
},
"source": [
"chicago_prophet.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>2005-01-31</td>\n",
" <td>33983</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>2005-02-28</td>\n",
" <td>32042</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>2005-03-31</td>\n",
" <td>36970</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>2005-04-30</td>\n",
" <td>38963</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>2005-05-31</td>\n",
" <td>40572</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Date 0\n",
"0 2005-01-31 33983\n",
"1 2005-02-28 32042\n",
"2 2005-03-31 36970\n",
"3 2005-04-30 38963\n",
"4 2005-05-31 40572"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "Ai26vzQ828Fr",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"chicago_prophet.columns = ['Date', 'Crime Count']"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "OsS8FMX328Fv",
"colab": {
"height": 204
},
"outputId": "c5ba8dd3-60fd-4a8d-dc13-ce116fc66ae2"
},
"source": [
"chicago_prophet.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>Date</th>\n",
" <th>Crime Count</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>2005-01-31</td>\n",
" <td>33983</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>2005-02-28</td>\n",
" <td>32042</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>2005-03-31</td>\n",
" <td>36970</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>2005-04-30</td>\n",
" <td>38963</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>2005-05-31</td>\n",
" <td>40572</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" Date Crime Count\n",
"0 2005-01-31 33983\n",
"1 2005-02-28 32042\n",
"2 2005-03-31 36970\n",
"3 2005-04-30 38963\n",
"4 2005-05-31 40572"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "A1GD2ggf28Fz",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"chicago_prophet_df = chicago_prophet.rename(columns={'Date':'ds','Crime
Count':'y'})"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "h9UdjoSl28F3",
"colab": {
"height": 204
},
"outputId": "9a29dffb-efde-4f89-e562-91abb01a6569"
},
"source": [
"chicago_prophet_df.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>ds</th>\n",
" <th>y</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>2005-01-31</td>\n",
" <td>33983</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>2005-02-28</td>\n",
" <td>32042</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>2005-03-31</td>\n",
" <td>36970</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>2005-04-30</td>\n",
" <td>38963</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>2005-05-31</td>\n",
" <td>40572</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" ds y\n",
"0 2005-01-31 33983\n",
"1 2005-02-28 32042\n",
"2 2005-03-31 36970\n",
"3 2005-04-30 38963\n",
"4 2005-05-31 40572"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "MMUwe5Xd28F7",
},
"source": [
"# STEP #4: MAKE PREDICTIONS"
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "_vzP7qgc28GH",
"colab": {
"height": 68
},
"outputId": "12fdc1ef-1eca-448b-d3a5-681233988cf7"
},
"source": [
"m = Prophet()\n",
"m.fit(chicago_prophet_df)\n"
],
"outputs": [
{
"text": [
"INFO:fbprophet:Disabling weekly seasonality. Run prophet with
weekly_seasonality=True to override this.\n",
"INFO:fbprophet:Disabling daily seasonality. Run prophet with
daily_seasonality=True to override this.\n"
],
"name": "stderr"
},
{
"data": {
"text/plain": [
"<fbprophet.forecaster.Prophet at 0x7f59d34cd2b0>"
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "m5CTwsqJ28GN",
"colab": {}
},
"source": [
"# Forcasting into the future\n",
"future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=730)\n",
"forecast = m.predict(future)"
],
"outputs": []
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "KCWA_JMf28GS",
"colab": {
"height": 309
},
"outputId": "eb9489d0-e137-4cfe-fc24-ac1698ef9008"
},
"source": [
"forecast.head()"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
"text/html": [
"<div>\n",
"<style scoped>\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"\n",
" }\n",
"</style>\n",
" <thead>\n",
" <th></th>\n",
" <th>ds</th>\n",
" <th>trend</th>\n",
" <th>yhat_lower</th>\n",
" <th>yhat_upper</th>\n",
" <th>trend_lower</th>\n",
" <th>trend_upper</th>\n",
" <th>additive_terms</th>\n",
" <th>additive_terms_lower</th>\n",
" <th>additive_terms_upper</th>\n",
" <th>yearly</th>\n",
" <th>yearly_lower</th>\n",
" <th>yearly_upper</th>\n",
" <th>multiplicative_terms</th>\n",
" <th>multiplicative_terms_lower</th>\n",
" <th>multiplicative_terms_upper</th>\n",
" <th>yhat</th>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </thead>\n",
" <tbody>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>0</th>\n",
" <td>2005-01-31</td>\n",
" <td>60454.736755</td>\n",
" <td>39181.807877</td>\n",
" <td>72111.294034</td>\n",
" <td>60454.736755</td>\n",
" <td>60454.736755</td>\n",
" <td>-4762.400048</td>\n",
" <td>-4762.400048</td>\n",
" <td>-4762.400048</td>\n",
" <td>-4762.400048</td>\n",
" <td>-4762.400048</td>\n",
" <td>-4762.400048</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>55692.336707</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>1</th>\n",
" <td>2005-02-28</td>\n",
" <td>60322.333828</td>\n",
" <td>33861.621363</td>\n",
" <td>67890.872891</td>\n",
" <td>60322.333828</td>\n",
" <td>60322.333828</td>\n",
" <td>-9500.508891</td>\n",
" <td>-9500.508891</td>\n",
" <td>-9500.508891</td>\n",
" <td>-9500.508891</td>\n",
" <td>-9500.508891</td>\n",
" <td>-9500.508891</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>50821.824937</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>2</th>\n",
" <td>2005-03-31</td>\n",
" <td>60175.744873</td>\n",
" <td>42518.014588</td>\n",
" <td>75427.164441</td>\n",
" <td>60175.744873</td>\n",
" <td>60175.744873</td>\n",
" <td>-1224.148242</td>\n",
" <td>-1224.148242</td>\n",
" <td>-1224.148242</td>\n",
" <td>-1224.148242</td>\n",
" <td>-1224.148242</td>\n",
" <td>-1224.148242</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>58951.596630</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>3</th>\n",
" <td>2005-04-30</td>\n",
" <td>60033.884593</td>\n",
" <td>44852.650664</td>\n",
" <td>77949.557395</td>\n",
" <td>60033.884593</td>\n",
" <td>60033.884593</td>\n",
" <td>1182.830385</td>\n",
" <td>1182.830385</td>\n",
" <td>1182.830385</td>\n",
" <td>1182.830385</td>\n",
" <td>1182.830385</td>\n",
" <td>1182.830385</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>61216.714978</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" <tr>\n",
" <th>4</th>\n",
" <td>2005-05-31</td>\n",
" <td>59887.295638</td>\n",
" <td>48026.814103</td>\n",
" <td>81789.049884</td>\n",
" <td>59887.295638</td>\n",
" <td>59887.295638</td>\n",
" <td>5498.250108</td>\n",
" <td>5498.250108</td>\n",
" <td>5498.250108</td>\n",
" <td>5498.250108</td>\n",
" <td>5498.250108</td>\n",
" <td>5498.250108</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>0.0</td>\n",
" <td>65385.545746</td>\n",
" </tr>\n",
" </tbody>\n",
"</table>\n",
"</div>"
],
"text/plain": [
" ds trend ... multiplicative_terms_upper
yhat\n",
"0 2005-01-31 60454.736755 ... 0.0
55692.336707\n",
"1 2005-02-28 60322.333828 ... 0.0
50821.824937\n",
"2 2005-03-31 60175.744873 ... 0.0
58951.596630\n",
"3 2005-04-30 60033.884593 ... 0.0
61216.714978\n",
"4 2005-05-31 59887.295638 ... 0.0
65385.545746\n",
"\n",
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
},
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "U5UE3F2Z28GX",
"colab": {
"height": 441
},
"outputId": "e615d12e-d8c0-4748-d141-683e0a5dd148"
},
"source": [
"figure = m.plot(forecast, xlabel='Date', ylabel='Crime Rate')"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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"text/plain": [
]
},
"metadata": {
"tags": []
}
}
]
},
{
"metadata": {
"id": "E3nefaKz28GZ",
"colab": {
"height": 441
},
"outputId": "a5854a56-f3af-464f-f7dc-cc16ac14bdd2"
},
"source": [
"figure3 = m.plot_components(forecast)"
],
"outputs": [
{
"data": {
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Predict Crime Rate in Chicago - Ipynb

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