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Evolution of the Indian G-sec Yield Curve: A Semi-Parametric Approach 5
Briefing
Article Summary 12
Macro-Prudential Approach to Regulation - Scope and and Issues
Measuring Market Risk
Determinants of Overnight Index Swap (OIS) Rates
What's New 18
Reports 26
Report of the Working Group on Foreign Investment Department
of Economic Affairs
Strengthening Repo Clearing and Settlement Arrangements BIS
Speeches 32
Market Roundup 36
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Domestic 51
World 53
Outstanding Government Debt 54
CCIL Indices 64
Technical Analysis 69
Primary Market Analysis 71
Statistics 73
Government Securities Market 75
Money Market 95
Foreign Exchange Market 103
Derivatives 110
Interest Rate Movement 113
Corporate Bonds 118
Milestones 122
Key Personnel 125
MANAGING DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE
The Indian economy continued to move on a CCIL business activity remained stable during
positive note during the month with ADB the month with a marginal increase in daily
increasing the growth forecast to 8.5% from average Repo and forex trading volumes while
8.2% for FY2010-11. The industrial output daily average outright activity showed a
surged to 13.76% indicating that the economy marginal decline. The CBLO showed
is picking up steam to achieve the desired significant increase during the month. On the
higher growth. Inflation is showing a decline, liquidity front, the market remained in
although remaining at a higher level at 8.51%. shortage mode as RBI supported the market
The new Auction calendar also showed a lower through LAF repo.
level of government borrowings indicating
On technology front, during the month, we
improvement in fiscal numbers. The revival of
successfully completed an extended
industrial sector has translated into higher
comprehensive BCP drill from our DR site at
revenues for the government. This is a very
Pune. As planned, the entire trading as well as
positive sign and will most likely bring
settlement operations of CCIL ran from our
heightened movement in the bond market.
Pune DRS for a complete week, from 4th to 9th
However, the main worry is the increase in
Sept, along with movement of our core staff. All
India's current account deficit of
the internal tests were successfully executed.
USD13.4billion in the first quarter. Trade
We thank all our members for their full support
deficit has increased substantially to
and cooperation during this period.
USD34.2billion from USD25.6billion last
quarter. Determined to keep inflation within a CCIL's own Corporate Office premises with
reasonable level, RBI chose to increase key primary data center at Dadar and new Active -
policy rates for the fourth time this fiscal on Active center at Kurla are getting ready. Both
Sept 16, 2010. The Repo rate was increased by sites will have state-of-the-art technology and
25bps to 6% while Reverse Repo rate was facilities which will help us to provide better
increased by 50bps to 5%. The government also support to the market. We are working for the
announced a hike in FII investment limit in completion of these projects on schedule.
bond market to USD10billion in government
bonds and USD20billion in corporate bonds.
This is a positive sign as it will add to the depth
of the market with higher FII investments. (Y. S. S. Kapdi)
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MONTH HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MONTH
This article attempts to capture as well as explain understand the yield curve as it stands today
the evolution and dynamics of the yield curve in in the Indian bond market. The method is an
the sovereign bond market using the widely instrument through which we can asses the various
popular statistical tool of Principal Components movements in the yield curve by observing the
Analysis commonly known as PCA. The use of the results yielded by applying the method.
principal components approach for bonds was first
PCA is a technique designed to handle analysis in
used by Litterman and Scheinkman in their
time series and stands out from other time series
seminal paper titled “Common factors affecting
analysis like cointegration and factor analysis due
Bond returns”, after which there was a spew of
to the ease with which its results can be interpreted.
articles on the subject. Other notable papers are by
What are those “common factors” affecting the
Hunt and Terry who proposed a novel approach
bond returns or in general the changes in bond
with the polynomial approach in estimating the
yields? If one were to ask the following question: Is
zero coupon yield curve which makes the
there a certain common factor by which we can
estimation better than the normal polynomial
approximate the changes in the bond yields, then
approach. The literature is full of articles which use
the principal component analysis gives one of the
the PCA approach to analyze various facets of the
many ways in which this problem can be analyzed.,
yield curve. PCA has also been used to analyze the
the prominent advantage being the ease with which
various Value-at-Risk based models. In this article
the results of the principal components can be
we will use PCA to look at how the tool helps us to
interpreted over all the other methods.
7.5000
Yield(% )
6.5000
5.5000
4.5000
3.5000
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
Maturity
*Mr. Aditya Vyas is Assistant Manager, Economic Research and Surveillance Department,
The Clearing Corporation of India Limited
5
The general term structure or the YTM curves on a It is not unreasonable to presume that these rates
yearly interval are given below to have a fair idea of are the key drivers for the entire term structure in
the movements in the Indian sovereign bond the sovereign bond market. The data was first
markets. The CCIL YTM Curve is estimated using converted to a first difference series which was
Non-uniform rational B-splines (NURBS) from the found to be stationary. We then extracted the
traded yields in the bond markets on a daily basis. covariance matrix from these first differences and
This interpolation technique gives a smooth yield applied the principal components analysis.
curve based purely on the traded information, on
The graphs of the first 3 major principal
the basis of which the general term structure is then
components (PCs) given below summarize the
derived and the non-traded securities are assigned a
behavior of the yield curve over the past six years in
model yield. In the present study we seek to analyze
short the evolution of the yield curve. The PCs are
how the YTM fares when it comes to explaining the
ordered as per their relative weight in terms of their
volatility implicit in the sovereign yield curve.
variances. In fact the whole purpose of conducting
Analyzing the Yield Curve the PCA is to reduce the dimensions of a large data
set in such a way that the PC with maximum
We have used the data from January 2004 to August
variance is first, the PC with the second largest
2010 of the CCIL YTM Curve. The studies which
variance is ordered second and so on. The
have hitherto analyzed the yield curve for
sensitivities of YTM rates to the first three factors
developed markets have been based mostly on the
are plotted below:
Zero coupon yield curves. In the present study we
0.5
Basis Points
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0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
-0.5
-1
Maturity
Prin1 Prin2 Prin3
have endeavored to use the Yield-to-Maturity curve The above graph clearly shows the sensitivities of
and base our analysis on that curve. each of the rates to the first three principal
components for the Indian yield curve. As can be
This time series is comprised of 8 key rates viz 0.5
seen, the first principal component has a positive
yrs, 1yr, 5yrs, 10yrs, 15 yrs, 20 yrs, 25yrs and 30yrs.
and largely steady shape which depicts that a
6
change in the first factor can induce a roughly change in this factor would have a negative effect
parallel shift in the entire term structure. This is on the mid-term rates but would have a positive
the factor that bond dealers would describe as being effect on both the very short and very long terms in
associated to duration hedging. the term structure. The respective PCs can be
plotted in a way in which one can see how each of
The second PC is positive in the short term and
the key rates is participating in the movements
negative in the long term which means that a
across the yield curve. These graphs are plotted
change in the second factor would propel a positive
below with
Participation of each of the Key Rates (PC1) Participation of each of the Key Rates (PC2)
1 1
0.5 0.5
Basis Points
Basis Points
0 0
0.5 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.5 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
-0.5 -0.5
-1 -1
Maturity Maturity
Participation of each of the Key Rates (PC3) Participation of each of the Key Rates (PC4)
1 1
0.5 0.5
Basis Points
Basis Points
0 0
0.5 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
-0.5 0.5 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 -0.5
-1 -1
Maturity Maturity
Participation of each of the Key Rates (PC5) Participation of each of the Key Rates (PC6)
1 1
0.5 0.5
Basis Points
Basis Points
0 0
-1 -1
Maturity Maturity
0.5
Basis Points
0.5
Basis Points
0 0
-0.5 -0.5
0.5 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
-1 0.5 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
-1
Maturity Maturity
change in the short term and would have a negative The first graph represents the participation of the
impact in the long run. Say a policy rate hike would first component and its impact as can be seen all
increase the short term rates but would not affect the key rates have an almost similar participation
the long term rates by the same degree which would in the movement of the level of the yield curve. If
be similar to an effect like “flattening” the yield closely observed, the six-month rate and the one-
curve or lessening the slope of the yield curve. year rate have a relatively less impact but otherwise
all the other rates have an almost similar impact on
The third factor represents the curvature of the
the parallel shift. This means that when there is a
yield curve which in the graph above has negative
unit change in the first factor the key rates will shift
“pull” in the middle term segment signifying that a
7
the yield curve with a roughly parallel move in the Table 2: Principal Components
yield curve. The first
component depicts the Tenor PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 PC6 PC7 PC8
0.5 0.0919 0.7669 0.1290 0.4527 -0.4242 0.0418 0.0101 0.0006
“level” factor of the yield
1 0.1485 0.6166 -0.0565 - 0.5664 0.5168 - 0.0803 -0.0148 0.0075
curve.
5 0.3723 - 0.0014 -0.7846 0.2200 0.1175 0.4263 0.0416 -0.0019
The second graph represents 10 0.4391 - 0.0713 -0.2677 -0.0483 -0.2422 - 0.8002 0.1555 - 0.0689
the “slope” factor of the yield 15 0.4257 - 0.0815 0.1173 - 0.3816 -0.4186 0.2127 - 0.5627 0.3400
curve and as is clearly seen 20 0.4037 - 0.0792 0.3001 - 0.2153 -0.1557 0.3154 0.3589 - 0.6647
the first two rates have a 25 0.3876 - 0.0859 0.3302 0.1495 0.2103 0.0855 0.5239 0.6205
positive relation with the 30 0.3789 - 0.0797 0.2829 0.4573 0.4866 -0.1326 -0.5038 - 0.2298
factor change, whereas all the Since we have taken 8 key rates, we have 8 principal
other key rates have negative relation with the components in the analysis. The first factor shown
factor changes. These results suggest that in case as PC1 represents a roughly parallel shift in the
there is a policy rate shock in general the yield curve yield curve. When we have one unit of that factor,
response will be such that the short and medium the six-month rate increases by 0.091 basis points.
term rates up to five years will respond positively to The 1 year rate increases by 0.14 basis points, the 5
the unit change whereas the rates beyond 5 years year rate moves by 0.37 basis points. Similarly for
will respond negatively to the policy rate changes. the other PC's , if we have a unit of the second factor
The third factor represents the “curvature factor” of then the six month rate moves by 0.76 basis points,
the yield curve. This factor has yielded results where the 1 year rate moves by 0.61 basis points, the 5-year
we see that only the mid-term rates have negative rate moves by -0.0013 basis points . This entire table
pull in relation to the changes in the third factor. can be read in a similar fashion and the movements
The short and long term bond returns have a respective to all the PC's corresponding to the key
positive relationship with the factor movements. rates can be deciphered.
The table below depicts the PCs for the key rates in The next table depicts the proportion of variance
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
8
the volatility, the first and second factors explain distributions of the first three principal
close to 89% of the volatility together. components “factor scores” are given below along
with their cumulative distribution functions.
The relatively low explaining power of the first PC
can be attributed to the uniqueness and The quantity of a particular factor in the interest
imperfections of the Indian market which is not as rate changes on a particular day is known as the
developed and as deep as the some of the developed factor score for that day. The importance of a factor
countries. In addition to this the policy shocks and is measured by the standard deviation of its factor
timely interventions of the central bank make the score. Though the factor scores are not explicitly
Indian market a seemingly more regulated market given in the study the variance is nothing but the
than most of the developed countries that have square of the respective standard deviations of each
largely “free” markets. of the key rates. They are arranged in descending
order after deriving them from the correlation
Table 3: Contribution of the PC's in the
matrix. The standard deviations are generally
total Variance explained
measured in terms of basis points since they reflect
Cumulative
Proportion of
Proportion of
the volatility of the factor scores of the various key
Variance Variance
Explained
Variance rates.
Explained
PC1 0.0525 0.6673 0.6673 The two tables given above which depict the PC's
PC2 0.0172 0.2184 0.8857 and the variances of the respective PC's can be
PC3 0.0035 0.0402 0.9259 useful in estimating the basis point changes in the
PC4 0.0020 0.0260 0.9519
tenor in terms of one standard deviation in the
PC5 0.0020 0.0256 0.9775
following manner. First we convert the variances
PC6 0.0013 0.0165 0.9939
into standard deviations by taking the square roots
PC7 0.0004 0.0049 0.9988
of the variances. Once that is done the quantity of
PC8 9.44E-05 1
any given factor corresponds to the product of the
So here we can see that the dimensionality of our respective principal component with its respective
04
09
63
53
55
07
58
61
12
15
.12
.10
.07
.04
.01
.61
.58
.56
.53
.50
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
-5
-4
-4
-3
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-0
Bin
f r e q u e n c y Frequency Cumulative %
9
Histogram of Factor Scores of PC2 Conclusion: As can be seen
450 120% from the above analysis we
400
100% can represent most of the
350
volatility of the yield curve
300 80%
Frequency
250
by synthetically
60%
200 constructing the principal
150 40% components from the
100 covariance structure
20%
50 inherent to the yield curve.
0 0%
In doing so we can also have
77
.08
.98
.88
.57
.47
.37
.26
.16
.06
05
15
25
35
46
56
66
87
97
.78
.67
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
-0
-0
-0
Bin
the yield curve in the sense
that past movements are
Histogram of Factor Scores for PC3 captured to estimate future
450 120%
effects of a rate shock to
400
100% yield curve. In this kind of
350
analysis, principal
300 80%
component analysis is very
Frequency
250
60% useful in reducing the
200
dimensionality of the
150 40%
hugely correlated data to a
100
20% few uncorrelated “factors”
50
51
03
07
11
15
19
23
27
31
35
43
47
9
9
5
7
3
5
1
.2
.2
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.0
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
Bin
So for example if we have to find the quantity of the Consider a random (column) vector X=(X1,X2,
first factor equal to one standard deviation, then it …….XM)T, where T denotes the matrix transpose
corresponds to the six-month rate moving by 0.091
x 0.22= 0.021 basis points, the 1-year rate moving by operator, with covariance matrix S. As long as
0.148 x 0.22 = 0.012 basis points so on and so forth. none of the Xi is an exact linear combination of the
This matrix can then be applied in the manner other components of the random vector X, S will
shown above and the movements of the entire term
structure can then be estimated. be positive definite. If S is a positive definite
matrix of dimension m, it has a complete set of m
As we can see the frequency distribution of the first distinct and strictly positive eigenvalues, and there
PC is non-normal, where as the frequency exists an orthogonal matrix A, consisting of the
distribution of the other two PC's is approaching
unit eigenvectors of S, such that
normality. The third principal component has
almost a normal curve.
A
T
SA=D
10
where D is the diagonal matrix with the eigenvalues This is the percentage variation explained by the
respective egienvalues of the covariance matrix of
of S along the diagonal.
the term structure of interest rates. The eigenvectors
Consider the random vector defined by are arranged (sorted) according to the respective
T eigenvalues in descending order of importance and
Z=A X
then the relative contribution of each eigenvector is
The covariance matrix of Z is given by computed.
T T T
E[ZZ ]=E[A XX A] Refernces
T
=A E[XX ]A
T
1. Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns-
Robert Litterman and Jose Scheinkman
=A
T
SA 2. Interest Rate option Models -Ricardo
=D Rebonato 3.Options, Futures and Other
Derivatives-John C Hull - Sixth Edition
T
Thus by making the transformation Z= A X we Prentice Hall India
have constructed a set of uncorrelated random
3. Intepolating the South African Yield Curve -
variables.
James Maitland , University of the
* T
Z i =ai X Witwatersand
11
ARTICLE SUMMARY
Macro-prudential Approach to Regulation - mechanism to correct the inherently skewed
Scope and and Issues: Shyamala Gopinath, pricing of credit risk by financial institutions
DG, RBI (Paper presented at the ADBI-BNM through the cycle. It also tries to preempt asset price
Conference on “Macroeconomic and bubbles in the economy and limit the build-up of
Financial Stability in Asian Emerging financial risks in the system. She further added that
Markets”, Kuala Lumpur, on Aug. 4, 2010) macro prudential policy is no substitute for
monetary tightening but should rather act as
Acknowledging the criticality of macro-prudential
complement to monetary policy. She also favoured
perspective in designing and pursuing micro
the necessary independence and flexibility to
prudential regulation of institutions and markets,
supervisors to act timely on the basis of available
Dr. Shyamala Gopinath said that systemic risk is a
information.
much broader concept implying probability of
sudden disruption to a large part of the financial The real challenge of macro-prudential regulation
system reflected in failure of multiple institutions is strong resistance to counter cyclical actions
and freezing of markets, triggered by a common during booms. Having a rule based approach will
shock and propagated through interconnected to a large extent obviate this problem but this
exposures and correlated positions. approach has its own limitations. Hence there is a
need to use macro-prudential regulation in
She said that volatile capital flows and
conjunction with other policies to be effective. For
management of sovereign borrowing are two
leaning against the buildup of imbalances, a
specific areas of perceived systemic risk. Excessive
combination of monetary and macro-prudential
volatility of capital flows could impose significant
policies is required. If inflation risks are emerging,
costs to the economy beyond the obvious exchange
macro-prudential measures cannot take the place of
rate impact which impacts financial stability in the
interest rate increases. Macro-prudential measures
form of induced risks of asset price bubbles and
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
12
ARTICLE SUMMARY
13
ARTICLE SUMMARY
paper, the authors make an empirical attempt to banks do not specify any VaR model to the banks.
select a suitable VaR model for government Rather under the advanced 'internal model
securities market in India. approach', banks are allowed to adopt their own
VaR model. VaR is being used for determining
The market risk amendment of 1988 Basel Accord
minimum required capital larger the value of VaR,
in 1996, the advent of New Basel Accord (Basel II)
larger is the capital charge. Since larger capital
in 2004, and subsequent revisions in the accord
charge may affect profitability adversely, banks
have brought about sea changes in risk
have an incentive to adopt a model that produces
management framework adopted at banks globally
lower VaR estimate. In order to eliminate such
in recent years. Regulators across the world today
inherent inertia of banks, Basel Committee has set
follow banking supervision systems broadly
out certain requirements on VaR models used by
similar to the framework articulated in these
banks to ensure their reliability; such as 1-day and
documents. A key feature of this framework is the
10-day VaRs must be estimated based on the daily
risk capital. The risk-based capital regulation has
data of at least one year, and that the capital charge
emerged as a tool to maintain stability of banking
is equal to three times the 60-day moving average of
sector. Determination of minimum required
1% 10-day VaRs, or 1% 10-day VaR on the current
capital is now made more risk-sensitive than earlier
day, which ever is higher. Further, Basel Committee
in the supervisory framework in recent years, &
provides Backtesting criteria for an internal VaR
there has also been an expansion in coverage of risk
model, like One-day VaRs are compared with actual
events in banks' portfolio.
one-day trading outcomes, One-day VaRs are
The Basel Accord and associated required to be correct on 99% of backtesting days, &
amendments/revisions provide broad guidelines to that there should be at least 250 days (around one
determine the level of minimum required capital a year) for backtesting. A VaR model fails in
bank should maintain for all three types of Backtesting when it provides 5% or more incorrect
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14
ARTICLE SUMMARY
Though there are more than ninety outstanding distributed, estimation of VaR would be made
government securities, less than ten securities are simply by using first two moments of the
traded for good volume or number of trade. Again, distribution and the tabulated values of standard
among these, all are not regularly traded. The normal distribution. But the experience from
authors use data for three years, between August empirical literature shows that the task is
2005 & July 2008. Effective working days during potentially difficult for the fact that the financial
this three year period was 747 days while the most market returns seldom follow normal distribution.
regularly traded security, 8.07% GS 2017, during
Accordingly, the authors employed a number of
this period was traded for 685 days followed by
non-normal VaR models, such as, historical
7.37% GS 2014 for 608 days.
simulation, RiskMetric, hyperbolic distribution
For each chosen bond, the authors considered the fit, method based on tail-index. The empirical
continuously compounded daily returns, whereby results show that the VaR estimates, based on the
their findings indicated that none of the return conventional 'normal' method, are usually biased
series could be considered to be normally downward (lower than actual) and the popular
distributed. The identified non-normality of the RiskMetric approach could not improve this level
underlying return distributions poses a great of underestimation. Interestingly, historical
difficulty in estimating value-at-risk. The authors simulation method (in its suitable chosen form)
decided to estimate VaR using a set of alternative can estimate VaR numbers more accurately.
techniques/models and evaluate each competing However, most accurate VaR estimates are obtained
model based on suitable criteria. from the tail-index method followed by the method
based on hyperbolic distribution fit.
From their analyses, they observe that VaR
estimates obtained from normal method are the Source: www.rbi.org.in
lowest for selected bonds. Among the non-normal
At the end of their analyses, the authors observe This paper makes attempts to analyze the
that ideally one would like to estimate VaR as a relationship of the OIS rates with other financial
measure of market risk for a much wider real variables.
portfolio held by any investor/institute. However,
The ushering of the global economic crisis / sub-
composition of and returns on such a portfolio is
prime crisis brought fore a new variable as a
not readily available and there also exist certain
measure of financial health-the spread between 3-
data limitations. If returns were normally
15
ARTICLE SUMMARY
month LIBOR and the 3-month Overnight Index cumulative increase in CRR and increase in the
Swap (OIS) rate-which captures factors other than repo rate. Beginning July 2008, there was a change
interest rate expectations, such as credit and in the underlying trend and the OIS rate generally
liquidity risks. An increase in the spread, holding declined, perhaps reflecting the global financial
the OIS constant, will increase the cost of such crisis, expectations for the easing rate and liquidity
loans and have a contractionary effect on the conditions in the Indian money markets. Finally,
economy. Bringing this spread down therefore from beginning of December 2008, the rate in the
became a major objective of monetary policy, as OIS market started increasing gradually. In the
well as a measure of its success in dealing with the entire period under consideration the data
market turmoil. indicated a close co-movement between OIS rates
and Gsec rates.
The Interest rate swap market in India is relatively
new, with the first interest rate swap being traded in Among the financial variables considered in this
July 1999. Among the Interest rate swaps, the OIS is study, the Gsec rate had high and significant
the most popular and liquid. Though OIS are positive contemporaneous correlation with the
quoted in different maturities, anecdotal evidence OIS rate. The call rate was also found to have
indicates that tenors upto five-year are liquid positive and significant correlation with OIS rate.
(according to the number of deals). In India the However, the inflation rate was not found to be
OIS market is generally dominated by the foreign contemporaneously related with the OIS rate. The
banks and some of the segments of the OIS market above correlation didn't considerably change
remain quite illiquid. during the global financial crisis or in its
aftermath. This could be because of the fact that the
This study concentrates on the last two-and-half
global financial crisis had a muted impact on the
year daily data on one-year and five-year OIS rates
Indian economy.
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16
ARTICLE SUMMARY
analysis results are indicative of a short period presence of at least one co-integrating vector. The
adjustment. coefficient of Gsec rate in the estimated
cointegration was found to be positive and
Anecdotal evidences suggested shocks to financial
significant. However, the coefficient of call rate was
variables affect OIS rate movement. To evaluate the
found to be negative (and low). It could indicate
impact of such impulses, the generalized impulse
that a high (low) call rate today was expected to
response functions were considered. In this
converge to the long term market expectation as
framework, the one standard deviation shocks to
indicated by the OIS rate.
inflation, differenced G-sec rate and differenced
call rate positively impacted the OIS rate in the 1st Concluding, the paper states that the road ahead
period. However, the impact of such shocks died for some of the empirical research in this area
down over a ten working day period indicating the includes the issues relating to the predictive power
resilience of the OIS market. of the OIS rate, the behavior of the MIBOR-OIS
spread for India during different phases and the
Moving to the long-run equilibrium relationship
reasons for OIS rate being lower than the risk free
between OIS rate, call rate and the Gsec rate, the test
GoI bond rate.
for cointegration, i.e. for the possible long run co-
movement of the rate variables indicated the Source: www.rbi.org.in
17
BRIEFING
WHAT'S NEW
International • Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate target by 25 bps to 1% and said
Developments
that it expects the economic recovery in Canada to be slightly more gradual
than it had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), largely
reflecting a weaker profile for U.S. activity.
• The Federal Open Market Committee while maintaining the target range for
the federal funds rate at 0.0-0.25% signaled its willingness to ease monetary
policy further, adding that too-low inflation, in addition to sluggish growth,
would warrant taking action.
• Bank of Japan officials flagged rising risks to the nation's growth as the yen
climbed in the aftermath of the U.S. Federal Reserve signaling willingness to
consider more monetary stimulus.
• Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time since 2004
after a surge in the yen to the strongest against the dollar in 15 years
threatened to stunt the nation's economic recovery.
• Bank of Japan governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the central bank is closely
watching the effect on the economy of the yen's appreciation, and is
prepared to take “appropriate action” if needed.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the damage from the
financial crisis has left the US economy growing at a slower pace than the
policy makers want even as the central bank's more than $1 trillion in bond
purchases have reduced interest rates.
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
• The Chinese Vice commerce minister said that the US's bill on China's
currency is redundant and China would set policy on its currency according
to its own needs.
• Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. isn't satisfied with the
pace of yuan gains and is considering ways to urge China to let the currency
rise faster.
• The longest and deepest US recession since the Great Depression ended in
June 2009, lasting 18 months, the National Bureau of Economic Research
said.
• As per the European Commission, Europe's economy may grow 1.7% this
year instead of the 0.9% projected at the depth of Europe's fiscal crisis in May
with a more “moderate” expansion in the second half.
• As per the Office for National Statistics, consumer prices in the UK rose
18
WHAT'S NEW
Indian Economy • India's fiscal deficit during April-August 2010 was `1,51,425 crore and
represented a decline of 16.93% over the fiscal deficit of `1,82,290 crores in
April-August 2009. The fiscal deficit during accounted for 39.70% of the
budgeted estimates of `3,81,408 crore for 2010-11.
• India's exports grew by 22.50% to US$16.64 billion during August 2010 as
against US$13.59 billion in August 2009. Imports grew by 32.20% to
US$29.68 billion as against US$22.45 billion in August 2009. Trade deficit
19
WHAT'S NEW
Indian Economy during April-August 2010 stood at US$56.62 billion as against US$40.28
billion in April-August 2009.
• The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered a growth of 13.80% in
July 2010 compared to 7.20% in July 2009. The cumulative growth for April-
July 2010-11 stood at 11.40% as against 4.70% in the previous year.
• The index of six core industries having a combined weight of 26.7% in the
IIP registered a growth of 3.7% (provisional) in August 2010 as compared to
6.4% registered in August 2009. During April-August 2010-11, six core
industries registered a growth of 4.1% (provisional) as against 4.8% during
the corresponding period of the previous year.
• India's holding of US Treasury Securities at the end of July 2010 stood at
$39.4 billion vis-à-vis $36.4 billion at the end of June 2010.
• The WPI inflation as per the new index with the base year of 2004-05 stood at
8.51% for the month of August. It stood at 9.50% as per the old index. The
inflation for July as per the new index stood at 9.78%.
• India's imports of sensitive items have gone up by 13.6% to `16,190.13 crore
during the April-June period of the current fiscal from `14,252.09 crore a
year ago.
• According to a survey conducted UNCTAD, India has replaced the US as the
second most important FDI destination for transnational corporations
during 2010-2012.
• FDI investment into India dipped for the second consecutive month, by
49% in July, to $1.78 billion.
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
• The finance ministry raised the cap for investment by foreign portfolio
investors in government securities from $5 billion to $10 billion, and in
corporate bonds from $15 billion to $20 billion.
• Enthused by the remarkable economic recovery, finance minister Pranab
Mukherjee said the GDP growth for the fiscal is likely to surpass 8.75%.
• In its monthly review CMIE has said that India's GDP is expected to grow at
9.2% in 2010-11 on the back of spurt in economic activities with the biggest
turnaround expected from the agriculture and allied sector, which is
projected to grow by 5.7% in FY11.
• The government has announced a one-percentage increase in the EPF rate to
9.50% for 2010-11.
• The Commerce Secretary, Dr Rahul Khullar said that although the trade
deficit may shoot up to $135 billion by March 2011, it is within manageable
20
WHAT'S NEW
Reserve Bank of India: • Dr. D. Subbarao, Governor, Reserve Bank of India will announce
(Source: http://rbi.org.in)
the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2010-11 on
Tuesday, November 2, 2010.
• Highlights of the Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review: September
2010
• The repo rate under the LAF has been increased by 25 basis points from
5.75% to 6.0% with immediate effect.
• The reverse repo rate under the LAF has been increased by 50 basis
points from 4.50% to 5.0% with immediate effect.
21
WHAT'S NEW
Reserve Bank of India: • The rate of interest on the Floating Rate Bonds, 2013 (FRB, 2013) applicable
(Source: http://rbi.org.in)
for the year (September 10, 2010 to September 9, 2011) shall be 6.91%.
• RBI announced the prudential norms on investment in Zero Coupon
Bonds.
• RBI has issued the directive on settlement and default handling procedures
in multilateral and deferred net settlement systems under the Payment and
Settlement Systems Act, 2007.
• RBI has notified the norms for grant of bank advances for financing
promoters' contribution.
• RBI issued the norms regarding banks' exposure to capital market regarding
the issue of Irrevocable Payment Commitments (IPCs).
• RBI notified the exclusivity arrangements for in-bound cross border money
transfer service.
• RBI notified that banks' investments in the National Payments
Corporation of India. (NPCI) and United Stock Exchange of India Ltd.
(USEIL) will be excluded from the calculation of their capital markets
exposure as the two institutions are crucial for financial infrastructure
building.
• Banks have been permitted to engage companies registered under the
Indian Companies Act, 1956, excluding NBFCs, as Business
Correspondents (BCs).
• RBI issued the instructions on the procedure for lodging of ATM related
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
complaints.
• RBI issued the instructions on collection of third party account payee
cheques regarding prohibition on crediting proceeds to third party
accounts.
• RBI has clarified that NBFCs can participate in the designated currency
options exchanges only for the purpose of hedging their underlying forex
exposures.
• RBI notified the format of data to be submitted by Credit Institutions to
Credit Information Companies.
• RBI released the data on ECBs and FCCBs under both automatic and
approval routes for the months of July and August 2010.
• RBI released the twelfth volume of its annual statistical publication titled
Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy (HBS) 2009-10.
• RBI placed on its website “A Profile of Banks 2009-10”.
22
WHAT'S NEW
Reserve Bank of India: • RBI released its 'Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled
(Source: http://rbi.org.in)
Commercial Banks March 2010'.
• Major highlights of India's External Debt as at the end of June 2010:
o India's external debt, as at end-June 2010, was placed at US$273.1 billion
recording an increase of US$10.8 billion or 4.1% over the level at end-
March 2010 on account of significant increase in short-term trade
credits, commercial borrowings and multilateral government
borrowings.
o Excluding the valuation effects due to appreciation of US dollar against
other major international currencies and the Indian Rupee, the increase
in external debt works out to US$12.1 billion over the quarter.
o The share of commercial borrowings stood highest at 27.3% as at end-
June 2010 followed by short-term debt (21.2%), NRI deposits (17.6%)
and multilateral debt (16.4%).
o Based on residual maturity, short-term debt accounted for 42.5% of the
total external debt as at end-June 2010, while the share of short-term debt,
by original maturity, was 21.2%.
o The ratio of short-term debt to foreign exchange reserves rose to 21.0% as
at end-June 2010 from 18.8% as at end-March 2010.
o External debt in terms of US dollar accounted for 59.8% of the total
external debt stock as at end-June 2010 followed by the Indian rupee
(13.2%).
23
WHAT'S NEW
Reserve Bank of India: o The higher trade deficit combined with the lower invisibles surplus
(Source: http://rbi.org.in)
resulted in the widening of current account deficit during Q1 of 2010-11.
o The capital account surplus increased significantly, over the
corresponding quarter of last year, mainly due to short-term credit,
ECBs, external assistance and banking capital.
o Net foreign investment, however, was much lower than the
corresponding quarter of last year mainly due to significant moderation
in net inflows under FIIs investments. Net inflows under FDI were also
lower during the Q1 of 2010-11.
o With capital account surplus being higher than the current account
deficit, the overall balance was in surplus at US$3.7 billion, which
resulted in a net accretion to foreign exchange reserves of equivalent
amount during the Q1 of 2010-11.
• Major highlights of International Investment Position (IIP) of India as at
the end of June 2010 are summarized below:
o Net claim of non-residents on India as reflected by the net IIP as at end-
June 2010, increased by US$26.8 billion to US$185.1 billion from
US$158.4 billion as at end-March 2010, mainly due to increase in net
inflow of Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment in India in
addition to inflow of trade credit and loans.
o Total external financial assets declined by US$5.3 billion to US$373.6
billion as at end-June 2010 over the previous quarter, due to contraction
in Other Investment by US$4.8 billion besides decrease in Reserve Assets
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
(US$3.4 billion).
o Among the other components of external financial assets, Direct
Investment abroad moved up by US$2.8 billion, over end-March 2010, to
US$82.1 billion as at end-June 2010.
o Reserve Assets i.e. official reserves (foreign currency assets, IMF reserve
position, SDRs, Gold) declined by US$3.4 billion over the previous
quarter and stood at US$275.7 billion at end-June 2010.
o Reserve Assets exceeded the total external debt (US$273.1 billion) by
US$2.6 billion as at end-June 2010.
o Total external financial liabilities increased by US$21.4 billion over the
previous quarter and stood at US$558.7 billion as at end-June 2010.
Direct Investment and Portfolio Investment in India increased by
US$6.0 billion and US$4.7 billion to US$180.5 billion and US$138.9
24
WHAT'S NEW
CCIL • CCIL's CLS segment settled 35,329 deals in the month of September
2010 (previous highest being 35,322 deals in the month of May 2010).
• CCIL successfully conducted “Live Operations” of all its business
applications from DR Pune datacenter during September 4-9, 2010.
25
REPORTS
Report of the Working Group on Foreign tribunals with regard to securities matters.
Investment Department of Economic Affairs,
2. Qualified Financial Investors (QFIs)
Ministry of Finance
1. Create a single window for registration and
The Working Group on Foreign Investment was
clearance of portfolio investment regulations
constituted to rationalize the existing arrangements
that does not distinguish between investor
relating to foreign portfolio investments by Foreign
classes.
Portfolio Investors (FIIs)/ Non-Resident Indians
(NRIs) and other foreign investments like Foreign (a) Qualified depository participants (“DPs”),
Venture Capital Investor (FVCI) and Private Equity with global presence through branch network
entities etc. and agency relationships would be legally
responsible for enforcing OECD-standard
The key recommendations of the Working Group
KYC requirements;
are:
(b) Such global DPs would have higher capital
1. Legal Process
requirements and would need to pass a
1. Respect and protect basic principles of due detailed “fitness test” administered by SEBI;
process when agencies apply foreign investment
(c) FIIs, FVCIs and NRIs would be abolished as
or foreign exchange law to individual market
an investor class.
participants;
2. Promulgate broader KYC requirements that meet
2. Create a financial sector appellate tribunal, or
OECD standards of best practices. These
extend the authority of the Securities Appellate
requirements would combine adherence to
Tribunal, to hear appeals on all aspects of capital
Prevention of Money Laundering Act (“PMLA”)
flows management regulations;
rules and regulations as well as information
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
3. Institute processes of required public required for market monitoring by all regulators
consultation before issuing any directives of law of financial services into one master file;
and policy. In general, the working group urges
3. Closely review sectors where limits set by FDI
the creation of transparent and approachable
and capital flows management policy overlap;
frameworks for access to the administrators of
financial regulation for interpretation and 4. QFI investment ceilings should be reckoned over
clarity in areas of ambiguity; and above prescribed FDI sectoral caps;
4. Involve law departments more integrally in the 5. Examine closely areas where regulations tailored
formation of policy; to a particular type of institution would be
incorporated, modified or subsumed by the
5. Create more user-friendly access to the law
larger QFI framework.
through public information systems. This
should include provision of real-time access to 6. With regard to participatory notes, SEBI should
comprehensive statements of law as well as have the final right to demand details about the
decisions and reasoned orders of appellate end investor in cases of needed investigations;
26
REPORTS
i. Enforcement of contracts between depository ii. Scrutinize areas where FDI and capital flows
participants and investors should b e management regulations overlap.
clarified. In particular, international dispute
iii. The language of FEMA (Transfer or Issue of
settlement mechanisms should be
any Foreign Security) Regulations,
established;
particularly regulations 6C and 7 would have
ii. SEBI (Depositories and Participants) to be consolidated to address investment by
Regulations, 1996 would have to be amended mutual funds and other financial services
to allow DPs to set up offshore branches; firms;
27
REPORTS
who offer these products to residents on Indian (d) Change FEMA (Borrowing or Lending in
soil, should register with SEBI and fully Foreign Exchange Regulations),
disclose all promotional materials, including
(e) Authorize QFIs to invest in security receipts
product literature, advertisements and
on par with domestic investors;
brochures.
(f) Different treatment of PSU debt and other
4. Debt
company debt, FCEB and FCCB could be
1. Remove the caps on rupee-denominated consolidated into a combined limit.
corporate debt as a matter of addressing
(g) Any other legal changes required to
currency mismatches. Any desired
implement the package of recommendations
restrictions on debt related capital f l o w s
compiled by expert committees in recent
could be expressed in percentage instead of
years.
absolute terms;
5. Derivatives
2. Finish implementing the many
recommendations from government 1. Capital flow management regulations should
committee reports over the past five years that focus on spot instruments and not
have either partially or not been derivatives;
implemented;
2. Harmonize the regulation of futures,
3. Extend the QFI model, our single window for forwards and options. There should be a
clearance of portfolio investment general policy preference to encourage greater
regulations, to debt investments as well; trade in exchange-traded, as opposed to over-
the-counter derivatives;
4. Extend consumer protection guidelines for
investment in foreign securities under the 3. Exempt investment by Indian residents in
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
28
REPORTS
29
REPORTS
30
REPORTS
do so they might withdraw from the market in detrimental to the resilience of repo markets in
times of heightened counterparty risk concerns. In times of stress. To the extent that repo market
markets cleared by a CCP, the CCP takes over the infrastructures must manage their own credit and
responsibility of liquidating collateral in the event liquidity risks, they could consider adopting risk
of a cash borrower's default. In other markets, tri- management practices that mitigate procyclical
party repo service providers could evaluate whether effects (e.g. by calibrating margins, haircuts and
and how they can play a role in supporting their liquidation horizons to stressed market scenarios).
participants' preparations for collateral This is particularly relevant for CCPs, but to some
liquidation. Even if market participants are extent also for any other repo infrastructure that
adequately prepared for liquidating collateral, they bears credit and liquidity risks.
might still withdraw from the market if they fear
Seventh, inadequate transparency as well as
that the liquidation of a substantial amount of
asymmetric information in repo markets can
collateral following the default of a large market
exacerbate the full or partial withdrawal of some
participant creates the potential for fire sale
repo market participants in times of heightened
conditions. While this report presents some credit and liquidity risks. To enhance the
suggestions as to how market infrastructure could transparency of repo markets, repo infrastructures
help reduce the potential for fire sale conditions, it are encouraged to consider reasonable requests by
is acknowledged that this is essentially a collective market participants or authorities to make available
action problem that requires coordinated action by meaningful summary statistics on the repo market.
market participants.
Finally, it needs to be stressed that repo clearing and
Fifth, constraints on the efficient and flexible use settlement arrangements vary considerably across
of collateral within repo clearing and settlement countries and markets, and hence not all of the
arrangements can complicate market participants' identified issues are relevant to the same extent in
31
SPEECHES
Post-Crisis Reforms to Banking Regulation from common equity, significant investments in
and Supervision Think Global, Act Local; the common shares of unconsolidated financial
Inaugural address by Dr. D. Subbarao, institutions and deferred tax assets arising from
Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the timing differences etc.; limiting the recognition of
FICCI-IBA Conference on 'Global Banking: minority interest in group capital to the extent of
Paradigm Shift' on September 7, 2010. its share in the minimum capital required for
subsidiary banks; and appropriate disclosure of
Dr. Subbarao begins by observing that over the last
various elements of capital.
one year, there has been significant progress in
crystallizing the reform agenda and in reaching a The Basel Committee's response to containing the
shared understanding on most of the measures. The excess prior to the downturn is the introduction of
thrust of the reform package has been to fortify the a leverage ratio which will be a simple, transparent,
banking system, correct the incentive framework non-risk based measure calibrated to act as a
and ensure its long term stability. The reforms credible supplement and backstop to the risk-based
focus on both the microprudential dimension at requirements.
the individual institution level and the
The proposed measures to contain the
macroprudential dimension at the systemic level.
procyclicality of financial sector regulations
India has been a newly inducted member of the
through capital buffers and provisioning will
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS),
impose additional costs on banks. Apart from the
and the Reserve Bank has been actively engaged in
general concern in this regard, in India, there is an
the process of crystallizing what has now come to
additional concern about the variable used to
be called Basel III.
calibrate the countercyclical capital buffer. The
In July 2010, the BCBS put out a comprehensive most widely discussed candidate for this is the
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
paper indicating the broad agreement reached on credit to GDP ratio. However, in emerging
the Basel III proposals. Broadly, these reforms will economies such as India, it will likely go up for
require banks to hold more and better quality structural reasons - enhanced credit intermediation
capital and to carry more liquid assets, limit their owing to higher growth as well as efforts at
leverage and mandate them to build up capital deepening financial inclusion. a study undertaken
buffers in good times that can be drawn down in by the Reserve Bank shows that the credit to GDP
periods of stress. ratio has not historically been a good indicator of
build up of systemic risk in our banking system.
The proposals regarding the capital adequacy
Furthermore, some economic sectors such as real
framework aim at ensuring that the quality of
estate, housing, micro finance and consumer credit
capital is high, there is consistency in the definition
are relatively new in India, and as such the risk
of capital across various jurisdictions and that
build up in such sectors cannot accurately be
there are appropriate disclosures to make the
captured by the aggregate credit to GDP ratio.
capital base transparent. The key changes include
prescription of an explicit minimum Tier I The major challenge for banks in India in
requirement; deduction above a certain threshold, implementing the liquidity standards is to develop
32
SPEECHES
the capability to collect the relevant data accurately approval for the remuneration of their whole-time
and granularly, and to formulate and predict the directors and chief executive officers.
liquidity stress scenarios with reasonable accuracy
Speaking on the implementation of Basel III in
and consistent with their own situation. However,
India, Dr Subbarao states that India's prudential
most of the Indian banks follow a retail business
regulations are ownership neutral. They will be
model and also have a substantial amount of liquid
applicable uniformly to public sector banks,
assets which should enable them to meet the new
private banks and foreign banks. The impact of the
standards. There is an issue about the extent to
measures will of course vary and will depend on the
which statutory holdings of SLR are counted
business model and risk profile of the banks and
towards the proposed liquidity ratios. Nevertheless,
their domestic and overseas balance sheets. The
it would be reasonable to treat at least a part of the
buffers built into the reform package are expected
SLR holdings in calculating the liquidity ratio
to provide automatic stabilizers obviating the need
under stressed conditions, particularly as these are
for external support during a downturn.
government bonds against which RBI provides
liquidity. Banks across the world are apprehensive that even
as they incur the cost of building the capital buffers
The recent Reserve Bank initiative to constitute a
they will not be able to use them during a
working group to examine the suitability of
downturn, because ironically that is when markets
financial holding companies in India is a step in
would expect and demand higher capital. Second,
identifying systemically important institutions.
some components of the reform package may have
RBI has also been constantly upgrading the
a 'comply or explain' framework which allows
regulatory and supervisory framework for financial
individual jurisdictions to deviate from any
conglomerates. Efforts are also under way to bring
specific provision of the package by explaining why
a larger number of financial transactions within
it has made deviations. There is a risk though that
33
SPEECHES
Perspectives on Inflation in India: Address inflation. In the last 56 years, there are 9 episodes of
by Deepak Mohanty, Executive Director, double digit inflation. Out of these 9 episodes,
RBI, the Bankers Club, Chennai on double digit inflation lasting beyond a year
September 28, 2010. occurred on 5 occasions. The most prolonged one
lasted for 30 months during October 1972 to
The main focus of the Deepak Mohanty's speech
March 1975. The last such high inflation was in the
was features of the new series of WPI, history of
mid-1990s which lasted 15 months between March
inflation from 1952-53 and determinants of
1994 and May 1995. Notwithstanding these
inflation. He said that by considering the data for
episodes of double digit inflation, it is important
the past five years, 2005-06 to 2009-10, there is not
to recognize that India has been a moderate
much difference in average inflation between the
inflation country. For the 56 years period from
new series and the old series.
1953-54 to 2009-10, the monthly annual average
The first and most important feature of new WPI is inflation is around 6.7%. There has particularly
the change in the relative weight of major been a perceptible drop in the average WPI
commodity groups. The share of primary articles inflation to about 5.1% in the last decade during
has gone down by 1.9%, which has been 2001-02 to 2009-10.
compensated by increase in the share of fuel group
He said that both the supply side and the demand
by about 0.7% and manufactured products by
side explain the behavior of inflation. In India,
1.2%. There has been a reduction in weightage of
medium-term supply response corresponding to
primary food articles and manufactured food
the changes in demand conditions is important for
products by 2.6% in the new series to 24.3 % from
the determination of the trend. Emphasis on fiscal
about 26.9 % in the old series. Second, because of
consolidation, discontinuation of the practice of
change in the consumption basket, the food
automatic monetization of fiscal deficit, market
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
34
SPEECHES
Thus the inference that can be drawn is that non- Mr. Mohanty concluded by saying that the new
agricultural GDP has a highly significant and series of WPI inflation marks a major change in
negative relationship with inflation, implying that terms of scope and coverage of commodities and is
an increase in non-agricultural GDP representing more representative of the underlying economic
improved supply condition will decrease inflation. structure. With the reduction in average inflation
Second, money supply has a highly significant and and inflation volatility, tolerance for high
positive relationship with inflation. One per cent inflation has come down. The moderation of
increase in money supply in absence of any increase inflation trend has had several beneficial effects in
in non-agricultural GDP could lead to 0.9 per cent terms of lower nominal interest rate and high GDP
increase in inflation. Third, alongside increase in growth rate. Given the remarkable stability in the
money supply by one percent, if non-agricultural inflation rate since the mid-1990s, it is important
GDP also increases by one per cent it will have a to persevere with appropriate policy responses so
dampening effect on inflation. But still inflation that the high inflation seen in the recent months
could go up by 0.15 per cent in the long-run. does not get entrenched. Even if the trigger for
Fourth, deviation from the long-run equilibrium is inflation is from supply side, its persistence
statistically significant and the adjustment towards necessitates monetary policy responses to bring the
the long-run equilibrium is faster through changes inflation rate back to its trend and anchor
in the non-agricultural GDP. Fifth, there is a two inflationary expectations.
way causal relationship between money supply and
Source: www.rbi.org.in
prices.
35
MARKET ROUND-UP
MARKET OVERVIEW
Macro-economic Overview
Domestic
• Asian Development Bank echoed the views of the chief economic advisor to the finance ministry and
Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council chairman C Rangarajan regarding India's growth
prospects. ADB raised the country's growth forecast from 8.2% to 8.5% in 2010 but cautioned that high
inflation and a rising rupee could threaten the country's sustained growth. CMIE, being more optimistic,
anticipates India to at 9.2% in 2010-11 on the back of spurt in economic activities. The industrial sector,
including construction is projected to grow by 9.4% in FY11, better than the 9.2% growth in FY10. The
service sector is projected to expand by 10%, compared to 8.6% last year led by the growth in trade and
transport segment. The biggest turnaround is expected from the agriculture and allied sector, which is
projected to grow by 5.7% in FY11.
• Mr. C Rangarajan expressed his concern over the current high level of inflation and suggested
improvement in farm productivity and closing the large physical infrastructure deficit, especially in the
power sector. However, a good monsoon is expected to ease inflation rate to 6% by March 2011.
According to him, agriculture, which grew at 0.2% in 2009-10, is projected to grow at 4% in 2011-12.
Industry, which achieved a 9.3% growth in 2009-10, is projected to grow further at 9.7% in 2010-11 and
10.3% the following year. The same trend could be observed in services sector, which after recording a
growth of 8.5% last year, is projected to grow at 8.9% in 2010-11 and 9.8% in 2011-12. The investment rate
is expected to be 37% in 2010-11 and 38.4% in 2011-12. Domestic savings rate is expected to be over 34%
in 2010-11 and about 36% in 2011-12.
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
• Fuelled by a strong rebound in manufacturing activity, India's industrial output surged 13.76% in July
from a year ago, a good 6 percentage
Growth of Industrial Production (in per cent)
points above the median analyst forecast 3 Months 6 Months
Category Jul'10 Jun'10 Year ago
and far higher than the June figure ago ago
re v i s e d d o w n w a rd t o - 5 . 7 6 % . SECTORAL
General 13.76 5.76 16.50 16.70 7.20
Manufacturing output jumped to
Mining 9.70 9.50 11.40 14.60 8.70
15.01% in July, where as power
Manufacturing 15.01 7.30 17.90 17.90 7.40
generation growth continued to be
Electricity 3.70 3.50 6.00 5.60 4.20
dismal at 3.7%. Going by use-based USE-BASED
classification of factory output, capital Basic goods 5.10 3.40 8.80 10.70 4.70
goods production showed a spectacular Capital goods 63.00 9.70 72.80 56.20 1.70
performance by growing at 63% in July Intermediate goods 9.10 8.70 10.80 21.30 9.80
from a year ago, indicating a strong Consumer goods 6.70 8.30 14.50 4.20 9.70
growth in domestic investment in Consumer durables 22.10 27.40 37.00 31.60 22.10
capacity expansion. Consumer non-durables 0.50 1.30 6.60 -3.10 5.30
36
• India's Monthly wholesale price inflation fell to 8.51% in August'10 (the lowest level since January) from
9.78% in July, as measured by a new series that takes into consideration the change in consumption
pattern over the years. Despite the sharp drop in headline inflation, there was no let up in underlying
firmness in prices as the wholesale price index
BASE EFFECT
(WPI) remained unchanged at 140.3 in August,
Weights (%) No. of Items
Major Group an indication that the decline was largely
2004-05 1993-94 2004-05 1993-94
because of high inflation last year. The figures
All Commodities 100.00 100.00 676 435
were the first using a new series of data with a
1. Primary Articles 20.12 22.03 102 98
different base year of 2004-05, new components
2. Fuel & Power 14.91 14.23 19 19
and weightings for the wholesale price index
3. Manufactured Products 64.97 63.75 555 318
(WPI) based inflation.
Monthly Inflation Rates
• The government's fiscal deficit fell by 16.93%
Month Revised Rate (%) Provisional Rate (%)
to `1,51,425 crore during April-August, 2010
Oct-09 1.46 1.34
from `1,82,290 crore in the same period last
Nov-09 5.55 4.78
year and accounts for 39.7% of the estimate for
Dec-09 8.10 7.31
Jan-10 9.44 8.56
2010-11. The deficit fell as the Centre garnered
Feb-10 10.06 9.89
better-than-expected revenues from auction of
Mar-10 11.04 9.90 broadband and 3G spectrum airwaves. During
Apr-10 11.23 9.59 the period under consideration, non-tax
May-10 11.14 10.16 revenue receipts were `1,52,299 crore, crossing
Jun-10 11.06 10.55 the full year target of `1,48,118 crore, mainly
due to robust response for the spectrum sale.
On the other hand, tax revenue receipts during April-August'10 period reached 25.9% of 2010-11 estimate
at `1,38,500 crore. The total expenditure in the first five months of the current fiscal stood at `4,47,703
crore, thereby reaching 40.4% of the target for the full year.
• As per the developments in India's Aug-10 16644 22.5 29679 32.3 -13035
2010-11 83661 141892 -58231
Balance of Payments during the First
37
Quarter (April-June) of 2010-11, published by the RBI, India's current account deficit has trebled to a
worrying $13.7 billion during the period, a new record, from $4.5 billion in the same quarter last year. The
prime reason could be the trade deficit, which rose to $34.2 billion in the June 2010 quarter from $25.6
billion in the June 2009 Major Items of India's Balance of Payments (USD billion)
quarter. However, robust April-March April-June
Item
capital inflows have helped 2008-09 (PR) 2009-10 (P) 2009-10 (PR) 2010-11( P)
overall Balance of Payments to 1. Exports 189.00 182.20 39.20 53.70
remain in a surplus at $3.74 2. Imports 307.70 299.50 64.80 87.90
billion. India's capital account 3. Trade Balance (1-2) -118.70 -117.30 -25.60 -34.20
billion in April-June from $4.6 5. Current Account Balance (3+4) -28.70 -38.40 -4.50 -13.70
6. Capital Account* 8.60 51.90 4.60 17.50
billion in the same quarter in
7. Change in Reserves# (-Indicates
2009-10 mainly on account of increase; + indicates decrease) 20.10 -13.40 -0.10 -3.70
short-term credit, external *: Including errors and omissions. #: On BoP basis (i.e., excluding valuation).
e x t e rn a l a s s i s t a n c e a n d Source: RBI
banking capital.
• Net direct tax collections during the period April to DIRECT TAX (Collections in ` crore)
August 2010 stood at `1,00,112 crore, up from `87,888 April-August 2009-10 2010-11 % change
crore in the same period last fiscal, registering a growth Corporation tax 49,339 57,750 17.05
of 13.91%. Growth in corporate income tax during the Personal income tax 38,491 42,217 9.68
period was 17.05% while personal income tax Total 87,888 100,112 13.91
(including STT, and residual FBT and BCTT) grew at
9.68%.
• The revival of the industrial sector has translated into higher revenues for the exchequer with the
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
government's indirect tax collection up by around 46% to over `1.24 lakh crore during the first five
months of this fiscal. The indirect tax department has collected `51,866 crore as customs duty during the
April-August period this year, almost 67% up
Indirect Tax Collections (Amt in ` Crore)
when compared to the last year corresponding
Type of Duty Apr-Aug 2009-10 Apr-Aug 2010-11 Growth (%)
period. Riding on a booming manufacturing
Customs 31,150 51,866 66.5
sector, excise duty collections have also
Excise 35,054 49,672 41.7
registered a growth of 42%. Service Tax
Service 18,891 22,632 19.8
collections during the period are around
Total 85,095 1,24,170 45.9
`22,632 crore, up 20% when compared to last
year.
• The six key infrastructure industries grew at 3.7% in August, the second slowest pace in the last 10 months.
The only silver line is the growth in crude oil production (15%). Production of finished steel, however,
bounced back to a five-month high of 7.7%. Cement, coal and electricity output grew only 1.6%, 1% and
1% respectively in August'10. The low growth, however, could be partly attributed to the high base effect.
38
Sector-wise Growth Rate (%) in Production
20.0 17.5
15.8
15.0 13.7
15.0 13.3
10.2
10.0 7.7 6.4
(%)
nt
ll
ct s
el
-5.0
ty
eO
era
Co
te
me
ci
u
ds
tri
Ov
od
ud
Ce
ec
he
Pr
Cr
El
nis
m
Fi
leu
Sectors
tro
• Apart from falling core infrastructure growth, vegetables owing to relentless rains in most
threatening to impact IIP and in turn country's parts of the country.
high growth prospects, rising food inflation is
• Determined to keep inflation on a leash and
another key area of concern for the economy.
encouraged by the 8.8% GDP growth in the first
After falling to 14.56% (week ending 28th quarter of 2010-11, RBI chose to increase key
August'10) from 14.94% during the week ended policy rates for the fourth time this fiscal
21st August'10 as per the new data series, food during its Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy
inflation continued its march upward for the Review: on 16th September 2010 - a move that
three consecutive weeks, reaching 16.44% for was a shade more hawkish than the market
the week ended 18th September'10. The prime expectations. While the repo rate was increased
reason being disruption in supply of fruits and by 25 bps to 6%, the reverse repo was hiked 50
0
-M 0
18 -10
6- 1 0
-A 0
strengthening the
-A 0
9- -10
8- 0
2 6 -10
1- -10
0
-A 0
14 -10
2 0 -10
-1
21 y -1
-1
25 g-1
-1
-1
13 g -1
-
ay
ep
p
ug
pr
pr
pr
ul
un
un
l
n
Ju
a
Se
u
Ju
-J
M
-S
-A
A
A
-J
-J
monetary transmission
3-
15
27
Date mechanism.
39
Movement in Key Policy Rates expressed its concern over tightening fiscal and
Effective Reverse Effective Repo monetary policies “too quickly” by the
Since Repo Rate Since Rate governments to sustain the expansion. Asia,
8-Dec-08 5.00 31-Jan-07 7.50
excluding Japan, is anticipated to grow 8.2% in
5-Jan-09 4.00 31-Mar-07 7.75
2010, faster than an April estimate of 7.5%. The
5-Mar-09 3.50 12-Jun-08 8.00
ADB maintained its 2011 growth forecast at 7.3%.
21-Apr-09 3.25 25-Jun-08 8.50 China is likely to expand 9.6% this year, unchanged
19-Mar-10 3.50 30-Jul-08 9.00 from the previous estimate. Inflation in Asia is
20-Apr-10 3.75 20-Oct-08 8.00 expected to remain within central banks' “comfort
5-Jul-10 4.00 3-Nov-08 7.50 zones” and could average 4.1% in 2010 and 3.9% in
27-Jul-10 4.50 8-Dec-08 6.50 2011.
16-Sep-10 5.00 5-Jan-09 5.50
The OECD forecast growth across the G7 to average
5-Mar-09 5.00
an annualized 1.4% in the third quarter and 1% in
21-Apr-09 4.75
the fourth of 2010, down from 3.2% and 2.5% in
19-Mar-10 5.00
the first and second quarters respectively. It
20-Apr-10 5.25
forecast annualized US growth rates of 2% and then
5-Jul-10 5.50
1.2%, where as Japan is expected to grow 0.6% and
27-Jul-10 5.75 0.7% respectively in the Q3 and Q4.
16-Sep-10 6.00
All the central banks held their respective
International benchmark rates unchanged during the month.
The month saw a decline in average crude oil price According to the European Commission, GDP in
from $77.08 per barrel (August'10) to $76.15 per the 16-nation euro region may increase by 1.7%
barrel. Factors such as weakening of the euro during 2010 instead of a previously projected 0.9%.
against the US dollar, decline in applications for The region's growth rate may slow by half to 0.5%
US unemployment benefit and rising equities
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
40
GDP Growth Rate (Quarter-on-Quarter) (%)
Country 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2
US -5.40 -6.40 -0.70 2.20 5.60 3.70 1.60
EURO 16 -1.80 -2.50 -0.20 0.40 0.00 0.20 1.00
Japan -10.20 -11.90 2.70 0.00 0.90 1.30 1.50
UK -1.80 -2.50 -0.60 -0.20 0.40 0.30 1.20
Australia -0.50 0.40 0.60 0.30 0.90 0.70 1.20
China 9.00 6.10 7.10 7.70 8.70 11.90 10.30
2.90 1.22
2.80 1.18
% (Japan)
2.70 1.14
2.60 1.10
2.50 1.06
2.40 1.02
2.30 0.98
2.20 0.94
2.10 0.90
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
10
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
p-
p-
p-
p-
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
Se
Se
Se
Se
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
1-
3-
7-
9-
16
20
24
28
30
14
22
Date
US 10 year bond rate Germany 10 year bond rate Japan 10 year bond rate
*
The volumes and the weighted rates pertaining to Saturday have been ignored in the computation of weighted average rate and the graphs for all
the segments of money market
41
MOVEMENT OF SHORT TERM RATES
6.70 Tight liquidity
Tight liquidity
6.40 conditions 6.90
conditions
CBLO and Repo 6.10 6.60
CALL VOLUME
REPO VOLUME 12.14%
20.24%
CBLO VOLUME
67.62%
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
The subsequent two tables explain the comparative rates across the various segments of the money
weighted average rates over a period of time and the market respectively.
comparative statistics of short term volumes and
42
COMPARATIVE MONEY MARKET VOLUMES AND RATES
COMPARATIVE MONEY MARKET VOLUMES AND RATES
Gross Daily Average Minimum Maximum
Segment Volumes (` Cr) Volumes (` Cr) Rate (%) Rate (%)
Sep'10 Aug'10 Sep'10 Aug'10 Sep'10 Aug'10 Sep'10 Aug'10
CALL 219862.00 231984.66 9559.22 9279.39 4.55 4.52 7.04 5.84
REPO 366327.14 388817.75 15927.27 15552.71 4.39 4.44 6.58 5.71
CBLO 1224126.30 1129515.45 53222.88 45180.62 4.00 4.09 6.05 5.69
43
DATED SECURITIES AUCTION/ISSUE
Date of Issue/ Amount Cut-off Yield Devolvement on
Paper
Auction (` Crore) Price (`) (%) PDs (`Crore)
03-Sep-10 7.46% G.S. 2017 4000.00 97.11 8.0081 0.00
03-Sep-10 8.08% G.S. 2022 5000.00 100.37 8.0296 0.00
03-Sep-10 8.30% G.S. 2040 3000.00 98.90 8.3993 0.00
8.39% SDL 2020 (Maharashtra,
07-Sep-10 3748.05 - 8.3900 -
Tamil Nadu, West Bengal)
07-Sep-10 8.40% SDL 2020 (Punjab) 800.00 - 8.4000 -
07-Sep-10 8.41% SDL 2020 (Uttar Pradesh) 1000.00 - 8.4100 -
09-Sep-10 7.17% G.S. 2015 4000.00 97.95 7.6888 0.00
09-Sep-10 8.13% G.S. 2022 4000.00 100.85 8.0181 0.00
09-Sep-10 8.26% G.S. 2027 3000.00 99.20 8.3475 0.00
21-Sep-10 8.37% SDL 2020 (Andhra Pradesh, Punjab) 1200.00 - 8.3700 -
21-Sep-10 8.38% SDL 2020 (Gujarat, West Bengal) 2001.95 - 8.3800 -
21-Sep-10 8.39% SDL 2020 (Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh) 1050.00 - 8.3900 -
24-Sep-10 7.99% G.S. 2017 5000.00 100.57 7.8763 0.00
24-Sep-10 7.80% G.S. 2020 4000.00 99.57 7.8628 0.00
24-Sep-10 8.30% G.S. 2040 2000.00 99.25 8.3668 0.00
T-BILL AUCTION
91 day T-Bill 182 day T-Bill 364 day T-Bill
Date Amt MSS Price YTM Amt MSS Price YTM Amt MSS Price YTM
(` Cr) (` Cr) (Rs.) (%) (` Cr) (` Cr) (Rs.) (%) (` Cr) (` Cr) (`) (%)
01-Sep-10 2500.00 0.00 98.51 6.0668 1500.00 0.00 96.92 6.3732 - - - -
08-Sep-10 2500.00 0.00 98.52 6.0254 - - - - 1000.00 0.00 93.93 6.4800
15-Sep-10 2500.00 0.00 98.49 6.1495 1500.00 0.00 96.89 6.4373 - - - -
22-Sep-10 2500.00 0.00 98.48 6.1908 - - - - 1000.00 0.00 93.74 6.6964
29-Sep-10 3500.00 0.00 98.46 6.2735 1500.00 0.00 96.83 6.5655 - - - -
Total 13500.00 0.00 4500.00 0.00 2000.00 0.00
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Charts provided below shows the trend in the cut- Bills respectively.
off yields of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
Ja 7
M 08
M 09
Fe 06
D 6
Au -07
Au 09
D 08
10
Ju 6
M 7
Ju 0
Ju 08
Ap 8
Ap 0
Ja 9
Se 0
N 09
O 7
Se 8
Se 6
0
r -0
r -1
0
1
0
-0
l-1
0
0
0
-
-
ct-
r-
ar-
p-
p-
p-
n-
n-
b-
g-
g-
n-
n-
ec
ec
ay
ay
ov
Ap
44
182 DAY & 364 DAY T-BILL CUT-OFF YIELDS
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
(%)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
Ja 7
Fe 6
M 8
M 09
Au 09
Au 07
D 8
10
Ju 6
D 6
M 7
Ju 8
Ju 0
Ap 8
10
9
N 09
Se 0
O 7
Se 6
Se 8
0
-0
-0
r -0
r -0
r -1
0
0
-0
0
l-1
0
-
-
c t-
ar-
p-
p-
p-
b-
n-
n-
g-
g-
n-
n-
ec
ec
ay
ay
ov
Ap
Ap
Ja
182 day T-Bill yields 364 day T-Bill yields
A 15% decline was seen in the total trading volume During September'10, 10-year yields moved
on the NDS-OM platform during September'10 to between 7.84% - 7.99% against 7.80% and 8.04%
`1,98,164 crore from `2,34,191 crore during during the previous month. Bond yields hardened
August'10. Volumes settled by CCIL during the from 7.94% (1st September'10) to 7.99% (6th
month can be observed from the Chart given September'10) on speculation that some investors
below. pared holdings of securities to raise cash for
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
p
p
Se
Se
Se
Se
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
1-
3-
7-
9-
14
16
20
22
24
28
There were 29 trades worth `255 crore of “8.08% purchases at a government debt auction. However,
G.S. 2022” conducted in the “When Issued” market expectations of lower monthly inflation rate pulled
during the month. G-Sec yields back to 7.90% by 9th September'10. On
the very next day, 10-year yields jumped to 7.96% as
45
market participants remained wary of an impeding additional $10 billion in corporate and
rate hike after better-than-expected industrial government papers by allowing them to
th
production numbers fuelled concerns. By 17 collectively buy government bonds worth $10
September'10, yields once again escalated to near billion and corporate bonds worth $20 billion
8% level after the central bank delivered a stronger- against the earlier limit of $5 billion and $15
than-expected rate action and due to liquidity billion respectively. These measures cheered the
crunch in the banking system. The government market; as a result, 10-year G-Sec yields eased to
announced that it was cutting back its gross 7.84% at the end of the month. Its movement is
borrowing program by `10,000 crore to `4.47 lakh depicted in the following Chart and the yields
crore for 2010-11 and opened debt market to more prevailing on the last working day of the month are
foreign investment. It permitted FIIs to put in an provided in the ensuing Table.
7.9500
(%)
7.9000
7.8500
7.8000
10
10
10
10
11 10
13 10
15 10
23 10
17 10
19 10
21 10
25 10
27 10
29 10
0
-1
-
-
-
-
-
-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
ep
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
1-
5-
9-
3-
7-
Date
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
The trend in the average yield spread over a period 181.14 bps during September'10, is illustrated in the
of time, which fluctuated between 127.72 bps and subsequent Chart.
46
1 YR - 10 YR SPREAD
350
300
250
200
(bps)
150
100
50
0
-50
Apr-05
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Mar-06
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-07
Mar-10
Spread (1-10yr)
47
TABLE (B): EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENT
Exchange Rate Sep' 10 Aug' 10 3 Months ago 6 Months ago Year ago
Rs. / Euro 61.00 59.50 56.94 60.56 70.24
Rs./ Pound 71.14 72.64 70.07 68.03 76.43
Rs./ 100 yen 53.70 55.96 52.61 48.44 53.35
Rs. / Dollar 44.92 47.08 46.60 45.14 48.04
US Dollar/Jap Yen
53.00
69.00
52.00
67.00 51.00
50.00
65.00 49.00
48.00
63.00
47.00
61.00 46.00
45.00
59.00
-S 0 44.00
20 p-10
-S 0
27 p-10
0
14 p-10
-S 0
16 p-10
21 p-10
-S 0
23 p-10
28 p-10
-S 0
6- -10
7- -10
2- -10
3- -10
8- -10
9- -10
13 p-10
17 p-1
24 p-1
-1
15 p-1
22 p-1
29 p-1
ep
p
p
p
p
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
-S
1-
The movement of 6-month and 1-month forward 5.29% - 6.60% respectively during the month can be
premia which fluctuated between 4.86% - 6.04% and seen from the Chart provided below.
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
FORWARD PREMIA
6.60
6.30
Rate (%)
6.00
5.70
5.40
5.10
4.80
2- -10
3- -10
6- -10
7- -10
8- -10
9- -10
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
-S 0
14 ep-1
15 p-1
16 ep- 1
17 p-1
21 p- 1
22 ep-1
23 p-1
24 ep-1
27 p-1
28 ep- 1
29 p- 1
-1
13 p -1
20 ep-1
ep
p
p
p
p
p
p
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
e
e
e
1-
6-month 1-month
48
The government raised the ceiling for investment corporate bonds has been reserved exclusively for
in government and corporate bonds by foreign infrastructure companies.
funds and permitted them to put in an additional
FIIs more than doubled their purchases of the
$10 billion in corporate and government papers.
equities and debt from USD 2.51 billion and USD
The relaxation for FIIs means they can now
0.65 billion vis-à-vis USD 5.43 billion and USD
collectively buy government bonds worth $10
1.67 billion respectively; an increase of 116% and
billion and corporate bonds worth $20 billion
158% month over month, resulting in record high
against the previous limit of $5 billion and $15
level (USD 7.10 billion) of FII flows since April'06.
billion respectively. However, the additional $5
During the current financial year, FIIs have infused
billion in each of the categories can be invested
USD 19.25 billion into the Indian sub-continent.
only in paper with a residual maturity of over five
The trend in FII flows over a period of time is
years. Moreover, the extra $5 billion allocated for
exhibited in the following Chart.
FII INFLOWS
7000
6250
5500
4750
4000
3250
USD Million
2500
1750
1000
250
-500
-1250
-2000
-2750
-3500
-4250
-5000
M - 10
M - 07
M - 09
Ju 07
Ju 08
Ju 10
Ju 06
N -0 6
N -0 7
N -0 8
Ju 09
N -0 9
10
M 07
M 08
M 09
M 10
Ja 06
Se 7
Ja 7
Ja 08
Ja 09
Se 0
Se 6
Se 8
Se 9
l-0
l-0
-0
l-0
l-1
l-0
-
-
-
p-
n-
n-
n-
n-
-
-
ar
ar
ar
ar
p
p
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
ov
ov
ov
ov
M
Quarter Net Investment in Equity Net Investment in Debt Total (USD Mn.)
Q1 2008-09 -3478.70 -709.80 -4188.50
Q2 2008-09 -2807.90 2003.30 -804.60
Q3 2008-09 -4015.10 739.50 -3275.60
Q4 2008-09 -1524.70 -1562.90 -3087.60
Q1 2009-10 6269.00 157.70 6426.70
Q2 2009-10 7102.40 831.50 7933.90
Q3 2009-10 4861.94 1769.13 6631.07
Q4 2009-10 4547.32 4712.56 9259.88
Q1 2010-11 2331.16 1371.28 3702.44
Q2 2010-11 11495.15 4053.23 15548.38
49
FDI in the country decreased by about 49% to USD From January-July'10, India received 25% less FDI
1.79 billion in July'10 against USD 3.48 billion as compared to the previous year to USD 16.65
during the corresponding period previous year. billion.
FOREIGN INVESTMENT INFLOWS (US $ MILLION)
2010-11 (P) 2009-10 (P)
Item
Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Apr-Jul Apr-Jul
A. Direct Investment 2179.00 2213.00 1380.00 1785.00 7557.00 10381.00
B. Portfolio Investment 3315.00 41.00 1297.00 9114.00 13767.00 11302.00
Total (A+B) 5494.00 2254.00 2677.00 10899.00 21324.00 21683.00
India's foreign exchange reserves increased from USD September'10), foreign exchange reserves rose by
th
282.84 billion (week ended 27 August'10) to USD almost USD 9 billion to USD 291.60 billion till the
285.33 billion for the week ended 3rd September'10 on week ended 24th September'10 largely on account of
the back of a healthy increase in foreign currency revaluation of non-dollar assets. The following
assets and gold reserves. After marginally decreasing Chart provides the trend in foreign exchange
to USD 284.50 billion during the week ended 10th reserves over a period of time.
USD Million
250000
-500
225000 -5500
200000 -10500
175000 -15500
150000 -20500
-25500
125000 -30500
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
100000 -35500
75000 -40500
06
6
0
07
08
09
10
07
08
10
09
-0
-0
-0
-0
-1
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
n-
n-
n-
n-
ay
ay
ay
ay
ay
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
M
50
KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
TABLE 1: DOMESTIC INDICATORS
Sr. 2009-10 2010-11 Change
Item
No. (Latest (Latest over
Unit/Base 1990-91 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
available available Previous
National Income
figures) figures) Month
Gross Domestic Product at market 2393671 2612847 3117372 3402716 4465360 4807222 1209888
1 ` Crore 692871 (1) 1870387 1978055 2052586 2208196
price (at 2004-05 prices) o (7.5%) (QE) (9.4%) (RE) (9.60%) (9.00%) (6.70%) (7.40%)$ (8.80%)$
2 Fiscal Deficit ` Crore 44632.00 118816.00 140955.00 145072.00 123273.00 125202.00 146435.00 142793.00 94283.00 ¥ 330114.00 412307.00 151425.00
Agriculture
Triennium
Index Number of Agricultural
3 ending 1993- 148.40*** 167.30 178.20 140.00 141.20 139.20 146.70 167.20 173.10 161.20 150.40
Production (All crops)
94=100
Industry
General Index of Industrial 204.20 221.20 284.50 297.80 297.90 347.30 330.80
4 1993-94 = 100 212.60* 162.60 167.00 176.60 189.00 (7.0) 22.40
Production (8.0%) (8.0%) (12.90%) (3.90%) (-2.30%) (13.50%) (13.80%)
Money Supply, Banking &
Interest Rates
3295644 3876926 4655831 5579567 5865310
5 M3 ` Crore 265828 1313220 1498355 1719203 2000349 2253938 2729535 69637.00
(20.8%) (17.10%) (16.20%) (14.90%) (4.70%)
2594259 3075224 3732501 4486573 4690703
6 Aggregate Deposits ` Crore 192541 962618 1103360 1280853 1501931 1766628 2087670 59124.00
(23.0%) (17.90%) (16.80%) (14.80%) (4.40%)
1923192 2272603 2690513 3240399 3382928
7 Bank Credit ` Crore 116301 511434 589723 729215 835382 1141701 1496474 18417.00
(27.6%) (17.80%) (13.90%) (12.60%) (4.30%)
S C Banks Investment in Govt.
8 ` Crore 49998 340035 411176 523417 653244 726111 704694 771060 966516 1166237 1375704 1453335 6611.00
Securities
9 Credit - Deposit Ratio Per cent 60.40 53.39 53.81 56.87 56.23 64.63 71.68 74.13 73.90 72.08 70.97 72.12
10 Cash Reserve Ratio Per cent 15.00 8.00 5.50 4.75 4.50 5.00 5.00 6.00 7.50 5.00 5.75 6.00
11 Bank Rate Per cent 10.00 7.00 6.50 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Inter-bank call money rate
12 Per cent 4.00 - 70.00 4.00 - 19.00 4.00 - 20.00 3.00 - 12.00 2.00 - 4.60 1.50 - 5.90 4.75 - 8.25 6.00 - 80.00 2.50 - 9.70 2.00 - 5.05 1.00 - 4.10 2.90 - 5.75
(Mumbai)
13 Base Rate û Per cent -- 11.00 -12.00 11.00 -12.00 10.75 -11.50 10.25 -11.00 10.25 -10.75 10.25 -10.75 12.25 - 12.50 12.25 - 12.75 11.50 -12.50 11.00 - 12.00 7.50 - 8.00
Inflation
14 Wholesale Prices (Monthly) ø
189.10 197.70 210.00 223.60 227.30 250.80 140.30
a. All Commodities 2004-05=100 182.70*** 155.70 161.30 166.80 175.90 0.00
(5.2%) (3.51%) (5.74%) (6.68%) (0.31%) (9.90%) (8.51%)
b. Fuel, power, light and
2004-05=100 175.80*** 208.10 226.70 239.20 254.50 289.00 316.70 320.10 341.00 320.90 361.80 148.00 0.20
lubricants
15 Wholesale Prices (Weekly) ø
283.40 180.90
a. Primary Articles 2004-05=100 - - - - - - - - - - 2.20
(13.86%) (18.31%)
b. Fuel, power, light and 361.80 147.60
2004-05=100 - - - - - - - - - - 0.00
lubricants (12.75%) (10.73%)
16 Consumer Prices-Industrial Workers 2001=100 193.00 444.00 463.00 482.00 500.30 (3.85) 519.50 (3.84) 119.00μ 127.00μ 137.00μ 148.00μ 170.00μ 178.00μ 0.00
Balance of Trade****
Source: RBI Annual Report, Bulletin, Weekly Statistics, SEBI & CCIL
Notes:
Yearly figures are as in March-end
* : Base: 1980-81=100
*** : Base : 1981-82=100
**: Figure as at March-end
****: Figures are cumulative for the year
Q.E : Quick Estimate
R.E : Revised Estimate
A.E : Advance Estimate
B.E.: Budget Estimate
#Turnover Ratio=(Central Government Securities Volumes for 12 months/Market Capitialisation during the month)*100
Percentage figures in brackets denote y-o-y growth
^ Turnover Ratio as on September 29, 2010
(1) At 1993-94 prices
μ: Base year 2001
$ :GDP for Apr-Jun 2010 (Q1 2010-11). GDP for Apr-Jun 2009 (Q1 2009-10): Rs. 10,99,653 Crore - (6.0%)
.+: Grand Total
¥: Excluding acquisition cost of RBI stake in SBI (Rs.35,531 crores)
o: GDP data till 2008-09 are calculated taking 1999-00 prices as the base.
¤: Base Rate relates to five major banks since July 1, 2010. Earlier figures relate to Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR).
ø: Inflation data till 2009-10 are calculated taking 1993-94 as base
TABLE 2: WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
UK USA Japan Germany South Korea China Brazil India
GDP for 2009 (USD Bn)(μ) 2256.80 14043.90 4139.60 2969.60 1324.40 30067# 3143.00 59232.00
GDP at current prices (2010 Q2) (1) 364148 3644675 119749050 622320 289465600 11753.60# 892.40 17093.40#
Net Exports (USD Bn) (July 2010) (2) -12.85 -62.03# 6.98 14.40# 6.65 26.36# 0.60 -10.78#
% change of GDP over last quarter** 1.17 0.43 0.37 2.18 1.43 - - -
GDP Implicit price deflator(2010 Q2)( 2005 = 100) 129.57 124.64 88.69 111.10 128.35 - - -
Industrial Production Index (2005=100) (July 2010) 89.13 97.85@ 95.08@ 105.26 143.91 194.20# 114.00 147.30#
Producer Price Index (2005=100) (August 2010) (9) 120.09 116.17 102.20 106.77 116.19 114.60# 125.60# 153.20#
Narrow Money (2005=100) (July 2010) (7) 156.90 125.29 104.96 146.86(3) 121.58 241.77# 201.27 220.23
Broad Money (2005=100) (July 2010) (8) 176.40 131.97 108.95 138.54(3) 156.80 238.78# 218.75 241.79
Long term Interest rates (August 2010) 3.20 2.70 1.08# 2.35 4.68 - - 7.84^
Short term Interest rates (August 2010) 0.75 0.41# 0.36 0.89(b)(3) 2.63 3.69# 16.94# 7.50-8.00(6)
Exchange rate (per 1USD) (August 2010) 0.64 1.00 85.38 0.77(3) 1179.46 6.77# 1.77# 44.92@
Key Policy Rates (%) 0.50 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.10 1.00 2.25 5.31 10.75 5.00
July, 2010.
Short August, 2010.
Base Rate
Expected
price
Price
Price Change for Actual
Change
Yield Market Change a 100bps Change
Due to
Sr. Issue Maturity Outstanding (%) Capitali- Mod V+ (for V- (for Convexity Due to rise in yield for 100
ISIN No. Security Price Yield Duration Modified PV01
No. Date Date (` Crore) (Previous zation Duration 100bps) 100bps) Measure Convexity due to bps
Duration
Month) (` Crore) for 100 Duration increase
for 100bps
bps(%) and in yield
(%)
Convexity
Effect(%)
50 IN0020010107 8.07% 2017 15-Jan-02 15-Jan-17 49000.00 101.38 7.7849 8.0011 49675.54 4.9855 4.80 98.26 108.16 28.99 -4.7987 0.1450 -4.6538 -4.6570 0.0494
51 IN0020020031 7.49% 2017 16-Apr-02 16-Apr-17 48000.00 98.38 7.8088 8.0247 47224.66 5.1029 4.91 96.95 106.96 30.81 -4.9112 0.1541 -4.7571 -4.7606 0.0500
52 IN0020070010 7.99% 2017 9-Jul-07 9-Jul-17 39000.00 101.04 7.7861 8.0384 39405.33 5.2788 5.08 97.78 108.23 32.68 -5.0810 0.1634 -4.9175 -4.9214 0.0522
53 IN0020020098 7.46% 2017 28-Aug-02 28-Aug-17 57886.80 97.92 7.8538 7.9582 56682.58 5.4710 5.26 93.56 103.95 34.57 -5.2643 0.1729 -5.0914 -5.0955 0.0519
54 IN0020020163 6.25% 2018 2-Jan-03 2-Jan-18 16886.80 90.59 7.9807 7.9932 15297.75 5.7693 5.55 87.18 97.41 38.35 -5.5479 0.1917 -5.3562 -5.3610 0.0511
55 IN0020080019 8.24% GOVT. STOCK 2018 22-Apr-08 22-Apr-18 50000.00 101.53 7.9648 7.9846 50766.25 5.5919 5.38 99.69 111.01 37.78 -5.3778 0.1889 -5.1889 -5.1937 0.0565
56 IN0020010024 10.45% 2018 30-Apr-01 30-Apr-18 3716.00 113.45 8.0446 7.9671 4215.62 5.3618 5.15 111.93 124.09 35.61 -5.1545 0.1780 -4.9764 -4.9809 0.0607
57 IN0020030063 5.69% 2018 (conv) 25-Sep-03 25-Sep-18 16130.00 86.37 8.0346 8.0435 13931.94 6.3890 6.14 81.34 91.97 46.32 -6.1423 0.2316 -5.9107 -5.9169 0.0531
58 IN0019980286 12.60% 2018 (On Tap) 23-Nov-98 23-Nov-18 12631.88 127.30 7.9745 7.9792 16080.82 5.4740 5.26 125.06 138.94 37.92 -5.2641 0.1896 -5.0745 -5.0795 0.0693
59 IN0020030097 5.64% 2019 2-Jan-04 2-Jan-19 10000.00 85.64 8.0519 8.0608 8564.30 6.4625 6.21 81.82 92.64 48.19 -6.2124 0.2410 -5.9715 -5.9782 0.0540
60 IN0020080068 6.05% 2019 2-Feb-09 2-Feb-19 53000.00 88.50 7.9613 8.0623 46905.00 6.4764 6.23 84.11 95.27 48.54 -6.2285 0.2427 -5.9858 -5.9926 0.0557
61 IN0020030048 6.05% 2019 (conv) 12-Jun-03 12-Jun-19 11000.00 87.55 8.0670 8.0750 9630.29 6.6092 6.35 83.91 95.28 51.26 -6.3529 0.2563 -6.0966 -6.1041 0.0567
62 IN0020090042 6.90% 2019 13-Jul-09 13-Jul-19 45000.00 93.60 7.9223 8.0501 42120.00 6.5518 6.30 89.32 101.32 50.84 -6.3022 0.2542 -6.0480 -6.0554 0.0599
63 IN0020010065 10.03% 2019 9-Aug-01 9-Aug-19 6000.00 112.44 8.0364 8.0423 6746.60 6.1696 5.93 107.37 120.89 46.63 -5.9313 0.2332 -5.6981 -5.7048 0.0675
64 IN0020020171 6.35% 2020 2-Jan-03 2-Jan-20 61000.00 89.62 7.9526 8.0619 54670.57 6.8829 6.62 85.39 97.48 56.10 -6.6197 0.2805 -6.3392 -6.3477 0.0603
65 IN0020000025 10.70% 2020 22-Apr-00 22-Apr-20 6000.00 117.36 8.0599 8.0642 7041.40 6.2395 6.00 115.03 129.69 49.82 -5.9978 0.2491 -5.7487 -5.7563 0.0732
66 IN0020100015 7.80% G.S. 2020 3-May-10 3-May-20 48000.00 99.74 7.8373 7.9483 47875.39 6.7106 6.46 96.56 109.87 55.48 -6.4576 0.2774 -6.1802 -6.1888 0.0664
67 IN0020000124 11.60% 2020 27-Dec-00 27-Dec-20 5000.00 124.83 7.9981 8.0925 6241.74 6.5318 6.28 120.14 136.22 54.65 -6.2806 0.2733 -6.0073 -6.0161 0.0803
68 IN0020009018 11.50% GOI (IIBI) Spl Securities 2021 30-Mar-01 30-Mar-21 100.00 123.17 8.1705 8.2452 123.17 6.7795 6.51 115.49 131.56 57.75 -6.5134 0.2888 -6.2247 -6.2341 0.0802
69 IN0020060318 7.94% G.S. 2021 24-May-06 24-May-21 49000.00 99.62 7.9910 8.1435 48815.03 7.1769 6.90 95.65 109.81 64.32 -6.9012 0.3216 -6.5796 -6.5905 0.0706
70 IN0020010040 10.25% 2021 30-May-01 30-May-21 26213.32 115.13 8.1021 8.1198 30178.08 6.8111 6.55 111.12 126.67 59.49 -6.5460 0.2974 -6.2485 -6.2584 0.0776
8.13% Oil Marketing Companies
71 IN0020060094 16-Oct-06 16-Oct-21 5000.00 99.36 8.2186 8.2946 4967.92 7.2116 6.93 96.25 110.55 66.15 -6.9270 0.3307 -6.5963 -6.6078 0.0714
Government of India Special Bonds, 2021
72 IN0020019017 9.75% GOI (IFCI) SPL SEC 2021 30-Oct-01 30-Oct-21 400.00 111.10 8.2035 8.2789 444.42 6.9810 6.71 107.79 123.27 63.05 -6.7059 0.3152 -6.3907 -6.4016 0.0772
7.75% Oil Marketing Companies
73 IN0020060096 28-Nov-06 28-Nov-21 5000.00 96.56 8.2243 8.3007 4828.08 7.4009 7.1086 92.47 106.59 68.75 -7.1086 0.3438 -6.7648 -6.7769 0.0705
Government of India Special Bonds, 2021
74 IN0020060037 8.20% Government Stock 2022 15-Feb-07 15-Feb-22 57632.33 101.08 8.0517 8.1543 58252.86 7.5549 7.2625 95.04 109.89 71.06 -7.2625 0.3553 -6.9072 -6.9199 0.0741
75 IN0020020072 8.35% 2022 14-May-02 14-May-22 44000.00 102.05 8.0725 8.1670 44902.79 7.4707 7.18 98.01 113.15 71.31 -7.1808 0.3565 -6.8243 -6.8372 0.0755
Expected
price
Price
Price Change for Actual
Change
Yield Market Change a 100bps Change
Due to
Sr. Issue Maturity Outstanding (%) Capitali- Mod V+ (for V- (for Convexity Due to rise in yield for 100
ISIN No. Security Price Yield Duration Modified PV01
No. Date Date (` Crore) (Previous zation Duration 100bps) 100bps) Measure Convexity due to bps
Duration
Month) (` Crore) for 100 Duration increase
for 100bps
bps(%) and in yield
(%)
Convexity
Effect(%)
76 IN0020070028 8.08% Government Stock 2022 2-Aug-07 2-Aug-22 11969.41 100.79 7.9728 8.1784 12064.51 7.7561 7.46 94.85 110.11 75.49 -7.4588 0.3775 -7.0813 -7.0952 0.0761
77 IN0020039031 5.87% 2022 (conv) 28-Aug-03 28-Aug-22 11000.00 83.10 8.1080 8.2040 9140.91 8.3265 8.00 77.27 90.68 83.83 -8.0021 0.4191 -7.5830 -7.5988 0.0669
78 IN0020070051 8.13% 2022 21-Sep-07 21-Sep-22 16495.28 101.16 7.9776 8.0299 16686.31 7.8817 7.58 94.06 109.45 77.37 -7.5793 0.3868 -7.1925 -7.2069 0.0768
8.15% Government of India FCI Special
79 IN0020060095 16-Oct-06 16-Oct-22 5000.00 99.29 8.2435 8.3190 4964.37 7.5924 7.29 95.86 110.91 74.49 -7.2918 0.3725 -6.9194 -6.9332 0.0751
Bonds, 2022
80 IN0020089028 7% FERT COS GOI SPL BOND 2022 10-Dec-08 10-Dec-22 10000.00 90.41 8.2608 8.3371 9040.80 7.9923 7.68 85.80 100.04 80.39 -7.6753 0.4019 -7.2734 -7.2886 0.0710
6.20% Fertilizer Companies’ Government
81 IN0020089044 24-Dec-08 24-Dec-22 4000.00 84.24 8.2707 8.3473 3369.49 8.2369 7.91 79.44 93.06 84.04 -7.9098 0.4202 -7.4896 -7.5057 0.0679
of India Special Bonds, 2022
6.65% Fertilizer Companies Government
82 IN0020089051 29-Jan-09 29-Jan-23 6000.00 87.63 8.2670 8.3436 5257.73 8.2145 7.89 82.11 96.14 83.77 -7.8884 0.4188 -7.4696 -7.4857 0.0700
of India Special Bonds, 2023
83 IN0020030014 6.30% 2023 9-Apr-03 9-Apr-23 13000.00 85.88 8.1166 8.2112 11164.17 8.2285 7.91 82.21 96.29 85.65 -7.9076 0.4283 -7.4794 -7.4961 0.0702
84 IN0020030055 6.17% 2023 12-Jun-03 12-Jun-23 14000.00 84.69 8.1230 8.2180 11856.37 8.4395 8.11 79.89 93.96 88.97 -8.1101 0.4449 -7.6653 -7.6828 0.0701
8.20% Oil Marketing Companies
85 IN0020089010 10-Nov-08 10-Nov-23 22000.00 99.44 8.2683 8.3435 21877.89 8.0012 7.68 95.16 110.97 83.70 -7.6836 0.4185 -7.2650 -7.2817 0.0788
Government of India Special Bonds 2023
8.30% Fertilizer Companies GOI Special
86 IN0020079011 7-Dec-07 7-Dec-23 3890.00 100.23 8.2684 8.3436 3899.00 8.0554 7.74 95.30 111.24 84.52 -7.7356 0.4226 -7.3130 -7.3299 0.0795
Bonds, 2023
8.01% Oil Marketing Companies
87 IN0020060052 15-Dec-06 15-Dec-23 4150.00 97.90 8.2714 8.3467 4063.00 8.1383 7.82 92.82 108.52 85.83 -7.8151 0.4291 -7.3859 -7.4031 0.0783
Government of India Special Bonds, 2023
8.20% Oil Marketing Companies
88 IN0020060060 12-Feb-07 12-Feb-24 5000.00 99.38 8.2753 8.3509 4969.08 8.2552 7.93 92.93 108.90 87.63 -7.9272 0.4381 -7.4891 -7.5068 0.0796
Government of India Special Bonds, 2024
8.35% SBI Rights Issue Government of
89 IN0020079045 27-Mar-08 27-Mar-24 9996.01 100.62 8.2731 8.3479 10057.66 8.3496 8.02 93.04 109.23 89.10 -8.0180 0.4455 -7.5725 -7.5906 0.0807
India Special Bonds, 2024
90 IN0020090034 7.35% 2024 22-Jun-09 22-Jun-24 10000.00 93.60 8.1300 8.2210 9360.04 8.5147 8.18 88.21 103.89 93.62 -8.1821 0.4681 -7.7140 -7.7335 0.0782
8.20% Oil Marketing Companies’
91 IN0020099019 15-Sep-09 15-Sep-24 10306.33 99.00 8.3214 8.2918 10203.53 8.5037 8.16 91.68 107.94 93.19 -8.1641 0.4659 -7.6981 -7.7176 0.0811
Government of India Special Bonds, 2024
8.03% Government of India FCI Special
92 IN0020060011 15-Dec-06 15-Dec-24 5000.00 97.84 8.2892 8.3642 4891.96 8.4598 8.12 92.50 108.81 94.22 -8.1232 0.4711 -7.6521 -7.6721 0.0813
Bonds, 2024
6.35% Oil Marketing Companies
93 IN0020089036 23-Dec-08 23-Dec-24 22000.00 83.83 8.3055 8.3036 18443.69 8.9199 8.56 78.64 93.33 102.08 -8.5642 0.5104 -8.0538 -8.0758 0.0732
Government of India Special Bonds, 2024
Expected
price
Price
Price Change for Actual
Change
Yield Market Change a 100bps Change
Due to
Sr. Issue Maturity Outstanding (%) Capitali- Mod V+ (for V- (for Convexity Due to rise in yield for 100
ISIN No. Security Price Yield Duration Modified PV01
No. Date Date (` Crore) (Previous zation Duration 100bps) 100bps) Measure Convexity due to bps
Duration
Month) (` Crore) for 100 Duration increase
for 100bps
bps(%) and in yield
(%)
Convexity
Effect(%)
7.95% Oil Marketing Companies
94 IN0020079029 18-Jan-08 18-Jan-25 11256.92 97.16 8.2902 8.3653 10937.36 8.5694 8.23 91.08 107.37 96.01 -8.2283 0.4800 -7.7483 -7.7688 0.0812
Government of India Special Bonds 2025
8.40% Oil Marketing Companies
95 IN0020079052 28-Mar-08 28-Mar-25 9296.92 100.92 8.2898 8.3614 9382.33 8.6650 8.32 93.04 109.88 97.46 -8.3201 0.4873 -7.8328 -7.8538 0.0840
Government of India Special Bonds, 2025
96 IN0020030071 5.97% 2025 25-Sep-03 25-Sep-25 16687.95 81.20 8.1675 8.2768 13550.52 9.5019 9.13 74.31 89.19 114.22 -9.1291 0.5711 -8.5580 -8.5839 0.0742
97 IN0020089069 6.90% OIL MKTG COS GOI SB 2026 4-Feb-09 4-Feb-26 21942.00 87.53 8.3548 8.3758 19206.14 9.1731 8.81 81.27 96.92 109.95 -8.8053 0.5497 -8.2556 -8.2806 0.0780
7.95% Fertilizer Companies Government
98 IN0020079037 18-Feb-08 18-Feb-26 3610.00 96.88 8.3110 8.3859 3497.49 8.9511 8.59 89.90 106.76 105.80 -8.5940 0.5290 -8.0650 -8.0889 0.0840
of India Special Bonds, 2026
99 IN0020089077 8.00% OIL MKT COS GOI SB 2026 23-Mar-09 23-Mar-26 10000.00 97.34 8.3085 8.3681 9733.66 9.0373 8.68 89.53 106.50 107.25 -8.6768 0.5363 -8.1405 -8.1649 0.0845
8.40% Oil Marketing Companies
100 IN0020060102 29-Mar-07 29-Mar-26 4971.00 100.83 8.3041 8.2899 5012.11 8.9647 8.61 92.68 110.09 105.86 -8.6073 0.5293 -8.0780 -8.1020 0.0868
Government of India Special Bonds, 2026
101 IN0020010081 10.18% 2026 11-Sep-01 11-Sep-26 15000.00 117.87 8.1557 8.2485 17681.11 8.7591 8.42 109.03 129.02 103.49 -8.4159 0.5175 -7.8985 -7.9221 0.0996
8.23% Government of India FCI Special
102 IN0020060029 12-Feb-07 12-Feb-27 6200.00 99.18 8.3211 8.3957 6148.97 9.1444 8.78 92.01 109.67 112.52 -8.7791 0.5626 -8.2165 -8.2432 0.0880
Bonds, 2027
103 IN0020060078 8.24% Government Stock 2027 15-Feb-07 15-Feb-27 57388.55 99.67 8.2749 8.3257 57201.58 9.1655 8.80 92.38 110.17 112.93 -8.8013 0.5647 -8.2366 -8.2634 0.0886
104 IN0020070036 8.26% Government Stock 2027 2-Aug-07 2-Aug-27 32427.33 99.94 8.2647 8.3513 32407.71 9.2595 8.89 92.83 110.90 116.37 -8.8920 0.5818 -8.3102 -8.3384 0.0900
105 IN0020070069 8.28% 2027 21-Sep-07 21-Sep-27 1252.24 100.82 8.1889 8.2732 1262.55 9.4170 9.05 92.46 110.80 119.23 -9.0466 0.5962 -8.4504 -8.4795 0.0913
106 IN0020020247 6.01% 2028 7-Aug-03 25-Mar-28 15000.00 79.45 8.2502 8.3050 11917.50 10.2003 9.80 72.26 87.90 137.07 -9.7962 0.6853 -9.1109 -9.1459 0.0779
107 IN0020030022 6.13% 2028 4-Jun-03 4-Jun-28 11000.00 80.69 8.2186 8.3058 8876.13 9.9879 9.59 75.27 91.19 135.01 -9.5937 0.6751 -8.9186 -8.9533 0.0793
108 IN0020060086 8.28% Government Stock 2032 15-Feb-07 15-Feb-32 52687.11 99.38 8.3407 8.3703 52362.21 10.2230 9.81 91.28 111.08 150.41 -9.8138 0.7521 -9.0617 -9.1051 0.0985
109 IN0020070044 8.32% Government Stock 2032 2-Aug-07 2-Aug-32 15434.05 99.96 8.3221 8.3738 15427.98 10.2738 9.86 92.04 112.12 153.20 -9.8634 0.7660 -9.0974 -9.1423 0.0998
110 IN0020020106 7.95% 2032 28-Aug-02 28-Aug-32 59000.00 96.53 8.2950 8.2246 56952.70 10.4495 10.03 88.20 107.81 157.26 -10.0333 0.7863 -9.2470 -9.2934 0.0975
111 IN0020070077 8.33% 2032 21-Sep-07 21-Sep-32 1522.48 100.78 8.2518 8.3295 1534.41 10.4451 10.03 91.61 111.97 156.74 -10.0312 0.7837 -9.2475 -9.2937 0.1012
112 IN0020040039 7.50% 2034 10-Aug-04 10-Aug-34 60000.00 92.27 8.2443 8.3760 55362.00 10.8595 10.43 84.34 103.91 173.86 -10.4295 0.8693 -9.5602 -9.6151 0.0972
113 IN0020050012 7.40% 2035 9-Sep-05 9-Sep-35 42000.00 90.83 8.2735 8.3690 38149.56 11.0855 10.65 82.33 101.87 182.31 -10.6451 0.9115 -9.7336 -9.7929 0.0971
Expected
price
Price
Price Change for Actual
Change
Yield Market Change a 100bps Change
Due to
Sr. Issue Maturity Outstanding (%) Capitali- Mod V+ (for V- (for Convexity Due to rise in yield for 100
ISIN No. Security Price Yield Duration Modified PV01
No. Date Date (` Crore) (Previous zation Duration 100bps) 100bps) Measure Convexity due to bps
Duration
Month) (` Crore) for 100 Duration increase
for 100bps
bps(%) and in yield
(%)
Convexity
Effect(%)
114 IN0020060045 8.33% 2036 7-Jun-06 7-Jun-36 59000.00 99.81 8.3458 8.4002 58890.32 10.6821 10.25 92.76 113.90 175.22 -10.2542 0.8761 -9.3781 -9.4356 0.1049
115 IN0020080050 6.83% G.S. 2039 19-Jan-09 19-Jan-39 13000.00 84.43 8.2596 8.3846 10975.49 11.5045 11.05 77.11 96.20 205.22 -11.0483 1.0261 -10.0222 -10.0954 0.0947
116 IN0020100031 8.30% G.S. 2040 2-Jul-10 2-Jul-40 13000.00 99.75 8.3209 8.3789 12967.50 11.1927 10.75 91.78 113.81 198.80 -10.7456 0.9940 -9.7516 -9.8234 0.1093
2193331.41 2155595.93 6.2784
* Weighted Average Duration of all the outstanding securities excluding the FRBs
Note: Prices in Bold are Last traded prices on September 29, 2010. Other prices are CCIL Model Prices
Duration is calculated considering September 30, 2010 as settlement date.
Duration
1 Modified Duration =
1 + Yield/2
2 V+ denotes the price due to 100 bps increase in yield; V- denotes the price due to 100 bps decrease in yield.
(V - ) + (V + ) - 2P0
3 Convexity = Where P0 denotes the current price before any change in yield.
P0 x (0.01 ) 2
4 Price Change Due to Modified Duration for 100bps (%) = Dur mod x ( 0 . 01) x 100 (A)
2
5 Price Change Due to Convexity for 100bps (%) = Convexity x ( 0 . 01) x 100 (B)
6 Expected price Change due to Duration and Convexity Effect (%) = (A) + (B)
V + - P0
7 Actual Change for 100bps (%) = x 100
P0
8 PV01 denotes the difference between the actual price and the price of the security for 1 bp change in the yield.
60
Market
Sr. Issue Maturity Outstanding Capitali-
ISIN No. Security Price Yield
No. Date Date (Rs. Crore) zation
(Rs. Crore)
TREASURY BILLS (DTB)
27 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 16-Apr-10 15-Oct-10 2000.00 99.74 6.3994 1994.75
28 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 30-Apr-10 29-Oct-10 2000.00 99.49 6.4989 1989.73
29 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 14-May-10 12-Nov-10 2000.00 99.25 6.4256 1984.97
30 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 28-May-10 26-Nov-10 2000.00 99.07 6.0073 1981.41
31 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 11-Jun-10 10-Dec-10 1000.00 98.84 6.0536 988.36
32 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 25-Jun-10 24-Dec-10 1000.00 98.60 6.1025 985.99
33 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 9-Jul-10 7-Jan-11 1800.00 98.34 6.2319 1770.08
34 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 23-Jul-10 21-Jan-11 1500.00 98.12 6.2003 1471.75
35 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 6-Aug-10 4-Feb-11 1500.00 97.77 6.5513 1466.57
36 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 20-Aug-10 18-Feb-11 2000.00 97.61 6.3446 1952.15
37 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 3-Sep-10 4-Mar-11 1500.00 97.38 6.3373 1460.69
38 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 17-Sep-10 18-Mar-11 1500.00 97.11 6.4277 1456.65
39 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 1-Oct-10 1-Apr-11 1500.00 96.83 6.5297 1452.45
40 IN002010X028 91 DTB 2-Jul-10 1-Oct-10 2500.00 99.98 7.3015 2499.50
41 IN002010X028 91 DTB 9-Jul-10 8-Oct-10 2500.00 99.85 6.8403 2496.26
42 IN002010X028 91 DTB 16-Jul-10 15-Oct-10 2500.00 99.73 6.6661 2493.17
43 IN002010X028 91 DTB 23-Jul-10 22-Oct-10 2500.00 99.64 5.9810 2491.02
44 IN002010X028 91 DTB 30-Jul-10 29-Oct-10 2854.10 99.53 5.9585 2840.65
45 IN002010X028 91 DTB 6-Aug-10 5-Nov-10 9875.00 99.39 6.2591 9814.41
46 IN002010X028 91 DTB 13-Aug-10 12-Nov-10 7550.00 99.30 5.9697 7497.27
47 IN002010X028 91 DTB 20-Aug-10 19-Nov-10 8000.00 99.05 6.9770 7924.26
48 IN002010X028 91 DTB 27-Aug-10 26-Nov-10 8000.00 99.07 6.0125 7925.58
49 IN002010X028 91 DTB 3-Sep-10 3-Dec-10 2500.00 98.90 6.3321 2472.55
50 IN002010X028 91 DTB 10-Sep-10 10-Dec-10 2500.00 98.85 5.9649 2471.33
Note: Prices in Bold are Last traded prices on September 29, 2010. Other prices are CCIL Model Prices.
61
TABLE 4: STATE DEVELOPMENT LOANS (SDLS)
State/Union Teritorry No. of Bonds Outstanding (` Crore) Wtd. Avg. Coupon (%)
Andhra Pradesh 80 57182.77 7.86
Arunachal Pradesh 36 673.46 7.72
Assam 42 10462.46 8.01
Bihar 38 16440.13 7.78
Chhattisgarh 19 2537.38 7.32
Goa 34 2409.86 7.82
Gujarat 55 38262.82 7.68
Haryana 35 12436.84 7.69
Himachal Pradesh 51 8629.26 7.68
Jammu & Kashmir 55 9639.16 8.10
Jharkhand 39 7869.23 7.72
Karnataka 38 22959.93 7.68
Kerala 64 25243.32 7.78
Madhya Pradesh 50 21210.08 7.72
Maharashtra 61 63098.61 7.75
Manipur 36 1766.93 7.66
Meghalaya 42 1625.60 7.82
Mizoram 37 1145.55 7.89
Nagaland 47 2855.60 7.88
Orissa 27 6420.02 7.27
Puducherry 6 1187.43 8.35
Punjab 59 24135.90 7.77
Rajasthan 70 32615.40 7.76
Sikkim 28 1235.44 7.78
Tamil Nadu 71 45922.06 7.81
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
62
TABLE 5: OUTSTANDING - GOVERNMENT SECURITIES, TREASURY BILLS AND STATE DEVELOPMENT LOANS
Amount ` Crore Amount ` Crore
State State
Government Treasury Government Treasury
Month Development Month Development
Securities Bills Securities Bills
Loans Loans
Apr-05 901997.98 78347.59 218075.65 Jan-08 1408888.64 126951.13 276361.79
May-05 912527.77 82165.74 218375.65 Feb-08 1425466.64 123605.11 289973.52
Jun-05 929979.88 90331.59 225929.72 Mar-08 1434086.40 136139.95 302724.48
Jul-05 941979.88 83796.09 228320.37 Apr-08 1474383.32 139593.07 310302.66
Aug-05 944979.88 95621.69 228320.37 May-08 1475406.64 147979.97 307821.10
Sep-05 957497.26 103942.30 228570.37 Jun-08 1488021.91 132825.20 311085.20
Oct-05 932367.49 105231.80 232340.93 Jul-08 1502365.10 133659.95 313385.20
Nov-05 965451.90 101083.56 232340.93 Aug-08 1503865.10 134160.86 313885.20
Dec-05 973451.90 80417.30 232715.93 Sep-08 1516355.10 135751.52 315762.92
Jan-06 983451.90 72232.94 233077.07 Oct-08 1526056.63 141434.52 318774.92
Feb-06 997121.18 67298.85 234260.04 Nov-08 1548689.18 149632.01 319041.09
Mar-06 1018621.18 70905.72 237984.24 Dec-08 1585092.50 145070.40 327486.09
Apr-06 1020121.18 67072.91 239804.87 Jan-09 1620512.50 146566.95 338191.45
May-06 1029072.84 76150.24 240104.87 Feb-09 1675454.50 146762.02 356629.49
Jun-06 1043942.84 76537.87 240763.49 Mar-09 1706082.83 150273.80 369290.70
Jul-06 1051942.84 84100.94 240763.49 Apr-09 1715696.03 163472.50 414068.98
Aug-06 1063882.03 92801.37 242221.82 May-09 1763993.85 148275.25 414563.33
Sep-06 1072882.03 95251.47 243271.82 Jun-09 1801993.85 146874.80 421563.33
Oct-06 1091856.02 93358.52 243271.82 Jul-09 1852993.85 141338.92 427513.33
Nov-06 1103856.02 99852.39 243473.15 Aug-09 1888993.85 138854.64 437472.91
Dec-06 1123116.81 96859.85 245904.37 Sep-09 1945300.18 141887.94 452223.35
Jan-07 1127268.03 102420.08 247867.61 Oct-09 1975300.18 134980.94 465742.01
Feb-07 1154702.69 108913.26 247472.70 Nov-09 2004300.18 134014.74 476964.28
63
CCIL INDICES
TABLE 6: COMPOSITION OF CCIL BROAD INDEX
Sr.
Security
No.
1 7.80% G.S. 2020*
2 8.13% G.S. 2022*
3 7.17% G.S. 2015*
4 7.46% G.S. 2017*
5 8.26% G.S. 2027*
6 7.27% G.S. 2013
7 7.40% G.S. 2012
8 7.02% G.S. 2016
9 7.38% G.S. 2015
10 8.20% G.S. 2022
11 8.32% G.S. 2032
12 8.30% G.S. 2040
13 6.85% G.S. 2012
14 6.72% G.S. 2014
15 9.40% G.S. 2012
16 7.32% G.S. 2014
17 8.24% G.S. 2027
18 6.35% G.S. 2020
19 9.81% G.S.. 2013
20 6.07% G.S. 2014
1100 1500
1050
1400
1000
1300
950
TRI
900 1200
PRI
850
1100
800
1000
750
700 900
Dec-03
Mar-05
May-06
Dec-07
May-08
Dec-09
May-10
May-04
Dec-05
Mar-07
Oct-04
Oct-06
Jul-07
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jul-09
Sep-10
Aug-05
CCIL BROAD PRI CCIL LIQUID PRI CCIL BROAD TRI CCIL LIQUID TRI
64
CHART 2: MOVEMENT OF CCIL T-BILL INDEX (JAN'04 - SEP'10)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
Dec-06
Dec-09
May-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Nov-05
Sep-07
Feb-08
Nov-08
May-10
Sep-10
Mar-06
May-07
Mar-09
Jan-04
Aug-06
Aug-09
Jun-05
Jun-08
CCIL Liquidity Weight Index CCIL Equal Weight Index
1050 1350
1000 1300
1250
950
1200
900 1150
PRI
TRI
850 1100
1050
800
Dec-06
Dec-09
Nov-05
Sep-07
Nov-08
Apr-10
May-04
Sep-04
Feb-05
Mar-06
May-07
Feb-08
Mar-09
Sep-10
Aug-06
Aug-09
Jun-05
Jun-08
65
CHART 4A: MOVEMENT OF CCIL TENOR INDEX PRI (JAN'04 - SEP'10)
1050
1000
950
900
PRI
850
800
750
700
650
Dec-06
Dec-09
Dec-03
May-04
Feb-05
Mar-06
Feb-08
Nov-08
Sep-04
Nov-05
May-07
Sep-07
Mar-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Aug-06
Aug-09
Jun-05
Jun-08
Upto 5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20-30 Years
1150
1075
1000
925
850
Mar-06
Dec-03
May-04
Nov-05
Dec-06
May-07
Nov-08
Mar-09
Dec-09
Sep-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Sep-07
Feb-08
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jun-08
Aug-06
Aug-09
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Upto 5 Years 5-10 Years 10-15 Years 15-20 Years 20-30 Years
1100 1250
1200
1050
1150
PRI
TRI
1000
1100
950
1050
900 1000
850 950
Aug-07
Apr-08
Aug-09
Apr-10
Jun-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jul-10
Sep-10
Jan-07
Nov-07
Dec-08
Nov-09
Jan-10
May-09
Mar-07
Mar-09
66
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Sep-06 Jan-04
Dec-06 May-04
Mar-07 Sep-04
Jun-07 Feb-05
Aug-07 Jun-05
Nov-05
Nov-07
Mar-06
Feb-08
Aug-06
May-08
Dec-06
Jul-08
May-07
Oct-08
Sep-07
Jan-09
CCBOR 10.00 A.M.
Apr-09
Jun-10 May-10
Sep-10 Sep-10
67
55
TABLE 7: PERFORMANCE OF CCIL INDICES AS AT END OF SEPTEMBER 2010
CCIL Indices One Month Three Months Six Months Year
Bond Index Broad TRI 0.6257 0.6474 1.8806 4.0918
Bond Index Broad PRI 0.2183 -1.0220 -1.3247 -2.2906
Bond Index Liquid TRI 0.9382 0.6893 2.1240 3.9701
Bond Index Liquid PRI 0.5388 -1.0248 -0.9528 -2.1094
CASBI TRI 0.6513 0.6029 1.8586 3.9401
CASBI PRI 0.2600 -1.0980 -1.3345 -2.4505
Tenor Index (upto 5 yrs) TRI 0.2715 0.4276 1.4837 3.7803
Tenor Index (upto 5 yrs) PRI -0.2467 -1.2970 -1.7526 -2.4532
Tenor Index (5 - 10 yrs) TRI 0.5952 0.3881 1.6034 3.0402
Tenor Index (5 - 10 yrs) PRI 0.1928 -1.3595 -1.6206 -3.4633
Tenor Index (10 - 15 yrs) TRI 1.0006 0.5554 2.4394 4.3306
Tenor Index (10 - 15 yrs) PRI 0.7578 -1.2103 -0.6216 -1.9475
Tenor Index ( 15 - 20 yrs) TRI 0.7754 0.8932 2.7685 5.7090
Tenor Index (15 - 20 yrs) PRI 0.4146 -0.7762 -0.2510 -0.3616
Tenor Index (20 - 30 yrs) TRI 0.7718 1.0433 2.3851 4.6048
Tenor Index (20 - 30 yrs) PRI 0.4085 -0.5978 -0.8239 -1.9191
CCIL Liquidity Weight T -Bill Index 0.2773 0.8395 1.3601 2.4935
CCIL Equal Weight T-Bill Index 0.2658 0.6522 1.0005 2.1974
CCIL SDL Index TRI 0.8788 0.6154 3.1076 6.4378
CCIL SDL Index PRI 0.4680 -1.2364 -0.2331 -0.2606
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
68
(%)
2-
Ju (%)
4.25
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
l-1
0
10 2-
-J u Ju
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.50
6.75
7.00
7.25
l-1
l-1
0 0
10
18 -J u
-J u l-1
l-1 0
0 18
26 -J u
l-1
-J u
l-1 0
0 26
-J u
3- l-1
Au 0
g- 3-
10 Au
11 g-
-A 10
RepoRate
11
CallRate
ug -A
-1
0 ug
-1
19 0
-A 19
ug -A
-1 Mean
Mean
ug
0 -1
0
27 27
-A -A
ug ug
-1 -1
0 0
1SD+
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
1SD+
4- 4-
Se Se
p- p-
10 10
12
1SD-
12 -S
-S ep
ep -1
1SD-
-1 0
0 20
20 -S
ep
CHART 8: CALL RATE MOVEMENT - (JUL'10 TO SEP'10)
-S -1
CHART 9: REPO RATE MOVEMENT - (JUL'10 TO SEP'10)
ep 0
-1 28
0 -S
28 ep
-S -1
ep 0
-1
0
69
70
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
4.00
4.30
4.60
4.90
5.20
5.50
5.80
6.10
Ju l-1
0
44.50
45.00
45.50
46.00
46.50
47.00
47.50
l-1 1-
6- 0 Ju
7.5000
7.6000
7.7000
7.8000
7.9000
8.0000
8.1000
Ju l-1 10
l- 6- 0 -J u
11 10 Ju l-1
-J u l- 0
l- 11 10
-Ju 18
16 10 l -J u
-J u 16 -10 l-1
l- -Ju 0
21 10 l-
-J u 21 10 26
l- -Ju -J u
26 10 l- l-1
-J u 26 10 0
l- -Ju
31 10 l 3-
Au
31 -10
CBLORate
-J u g-
USD
-Ju
l l- 10
5- -10
Yield
5 - 10
Au A 11
u -A
10 g-10 10 g -10 ug
-A -A -1
0
Mean
u u
15 g-1 0 15 g-10 19
-A -A
Average
-A u
Mean
u 20 g-10
ug
-1
20 g-1 -A 0
-A 0 u 27
u
1SD+
25 g-1 -A
25 g-1 0 -A 0 ug
-A u -1
0
1SD+
u
1SD+
30 g-10
30 g-1 0 -A
-A ug 4-
Se
1SD-
ug 4 - -10 p-
- Se 10
4- 1 0 p-
Se 12
1SD-
1SD-
p- 9- 10 -S
Se
9- 10 p ep
14 -10 -1
Se
p -S 0
14 -10 ep 20
-S 19 -10 -S
ep -S ep
ep -1
0
CHART 10: CBLO RATE MOVEMENT - (JUL'10 TO SEP'10)
19 -10 24 -10
-S -S
ep 28
CHART 11: 10-YEAR YIELD MOVEMENT - (JUL'10 TO SEP'10)
ep -S
GOI Borrowing
Total no of Issues (including reissues) 71 69 108
Gross Amount Borrowed Excluding MSS (F.V ` Crore) 284000.00 295000.00 418000.00
Weighted Average Maturity (years) 11.26 10.95 11.17
Weighted Average Yield (%) 7.78 7.08 7.23
Buybacks
Auctions (F.V. ` Crore) 9113.50 - 9113.50
NDS-OM (F.V. ` Crore) 500.00 - 500.00
Benchmark Rates
Bank Rate(% p.a)(Effective Date) 6.00 (29-04-03) 6.00 (29-04-03) 6.00 (29-04-03)
CRR Rate (% p.a.)(Effective Date) 6.00 (24-04-10) 5.00 (17-01-09) 5.75 (27-02-10)
Reverse Repo Rate(%)(Effective Date) 5.00 (16-09-10) 3.25 (21-04-09) 3.50 (19-03-10)
Repo Rate (%) (Effective Date) 6.00 (16-09-10) 4.75 (21-04-09) 5.00 (19-03-10)
Call Money Range(%) 3.71 - 7.04 2.99 - 4.36 1.68 - 4.91
71
TABLE 9: AUCTION SUMMARY - 2010-11 Amount ` Crore
Normal Auction
Month
Dated Securities CMB 91-Day T-Bills 182-Day T-Bills 364-Day T-Bills
April-10 49000 0 28000 4000 4025
May-10 52000 12000 28000 4000 4000
June-10 50000 0 11500 2000 3351
July-10 50000 0 10354 3300 2000
August-10 49000 0 33425 3500 2063
September-10 34000 0 13500 4500 2000
2010-11 284000 12000 124779 21300 17439
Note No MSS auctions during the year.
90000
70000
50000
(Amount Rs. Crore)
30000
10000
-10000
Sep-06
Jan-07
Sep-10
Nov-06
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
May-06
May-07
Jul-07
May-08
May-09
Jul-06
Jul-08
Jul-09
May-10
Jul-10
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
-30000
-50000
-70000
-90000
Borrowing Redemption
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
15000
10000
(Amount in USD Million)
5000
0
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-06
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
-25000 Month
Purchase Sale
72
STATISTICS
TABLE 10: CCIL SETTLEMENT VOLUMES Amount ` Crore
*Commenced operations from November 12, 2002, Cash and Tom settlement is with effect from February 5, 2004.
** Commenced operations from January 20, 2003
74
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
SETTLEMENT ANALYSIS
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 164
TABLE 13: SETTLEMENT VOLUMES: TRADE TYPE percent
Outright Repo
Settlement Period Proprietary Constituent Proprietary Constituent
Trades Volume Trades Volume Trades Volume Trades Volume
2002-03 80.54 87.54 19.46 12.46 99.58 99.81 0.42 0.19
2003-04 75.82 85.03 24.18 14.97 88.11 89.96 11.89 10.04
2004-05 75.96 81.95 24.04 18.05 81.83 86.21 18.17 13.79
2005-06 78.55 85.37 21.45 14.63 70.00 82.77 30.00 17.23
2006-07 87.78 90.06 12.22 9.94 70.67 85.01 29.33 14.99
2007-08 90.26 90.55 9.74 9.45 70.74 83.79 29.26 16.21
2008-09 89.48 88.32 10.52 11.68 72.60 87.98 27.40 12.02
2009-10 90.16 90.56 9.84 9.44 81.01 94.03 18.99 5.97
Apr-10 90.94 91.42 9.06 8.58 83.52 92.06 16.48 7.94
May-10 92.34 92.54 7.66 7.46 82.73 91.34 17.27 8.66
Jun-10 91.83 92.81 8.17 7.19 75.82 84.99 24.18 15.01
Jul-10 88.35 89.42 11.65 10.58 79.54 89.21 20.46 10.79
Aug-10 89.67 91.32 10.33 8.68 80.41 91.16 19.59 8.84
Sep-10 89.61 90.53 10.39 9.47 78.70 89.75 21.30 10.25
2010-11 (Upto
90.72 91.55 9.28 8.45 80.23 90.18 19.77 9.82
September 2010)
600000
Volumes (F.V. ` Crore)
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Dec-08
Dec-04
Oct-06
Oct-09
Feb-04
Apr-10
Apr-03
Sep-03
Nov-05
Apr-06
Mar-07
May-09
Sep-10
Aug-07
Jan-08
Jun-05
Jul-04
Jul-08
Outright Repo
75
TABLE 14: DEAL SIZE ANALYSIS percent
< 5 Cr 5 Cr > 5 Cr <=10 Cr >10 Cr<=20 Cr > 20 Cr
Settlement % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to
Period total total total total total total total total total total
trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value
2002-03 10.22 1.64 75.71 67.68 10.88 19.23 2.30 6.80 0.89 4.65
2003-04 12.23 1.72 68.92 53.29 11.98 18.40 2.54 6.51 4.33 20.09
2004-05 14.24 1.75 67.12 47.55 9.72 13.59 2.98 7.02 5.93 30.09
2005-06 15.26 1.78 67.75 49.17 8.05 11.49 2.68 6.36 6.26 31.20
2006-07 8.30 0.93 71.38 47.90 12.50 16.67 2.59 5.76 5.23 28.75
2007-08 5.30 0.51 60.70 34.66 23.17 26.40 3.47 6.62 7.36 31.81
2008-09 5.69 0.56 64.57 36.76 20.60 23.40 2.89 5.52 6.26 33.76
2009-10 5.35 0.54 65.32 35.53 18.16 19.71 3.31 6.03 7.86 38.20
Apr-10 4.84 0.52 64.31 31.72 17.62 17.32 3.95 6.52 9.28 43.92
May-10 3.45 0.43 65.25 35.57 19.32 21.05 4.35 8.05 7.63 34.89
Jun-10 4.15 0.49 64.12 35.79 20.13 22.44 4.47 8.48 7.14 32.80
Jul-10 6.21 0.62 60.57 32.25 19.46 20.68 4.58 8.25 9.19 38.20
Aug-10 5.90 0.62 62.27 34.30 19.38 21.30 4.27 7.94 8.19 35.83
Sep-10 5.03 0.61 65.43 37.85 18.05 20.82 3.97 7.72 7.52 33.00
2010-11 (Upto
4.75 0.53 63.86 34.73 19.09 20.72 4.28 7.87 8.02 36.15
September 2010)
76
TENOR WISE ACTIVITY
TABLE 16: TENOR WISE SETTLEMENT VOLUME OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DATED SECURITIES Amount ` Crore
45
40
2015
2027
2040
2013
2022
2017
2012
2016
2011
Tenor
CHART 17: CATEGORY WISE ANALYSIS OF OUTRIGHT - TRADES NDS AND NDS - OM
CATEGORY WISE ANALYSIS OF OUTRIGHT TRADES
NDS AND NDS - OM
FIs & Ins.Cos
1.51% (1.93%)
Cooperative Banks
2.78% (2.25%) Others 0.42% (0.89%)
TABLE 17: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (BUY)
SELLER
Market
BUYER Private Public Co- Market
Foreign Primary Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operativ Others FIs Share
Banks Dealers Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks e Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 52.67 16.38 11.56 14.43 3.92 0.86 0.13 0.06 0.00 42.32 33.40
Private Sector Banks 36.11 16.74 4.62 37.54 0.61 0.26 3.79 0.35 0.00 15.58 25.30
Public Sector Banks 58.66 18.24 1.36 17.08 3.43 0.45 0.78 0.00 0.00 14.93 11.53
Primary Dealers 43.50 34.26 6.76 9.88 3.18 0.51 1.29 0.62 0.00 13.12 11.01
Mutual Funds 53.38 15.54 5.12 25.13 0.33 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.15 9.56
Ins. Cos 37.45 17.28 14.40 25.10 5.28 0.00 0.48 0.01 0.00 2.81 3.10
Co-operative Banks 3.71 29.26 2.25 17.17 0.75 0.00 42.37 4.50 0.00 1.80 2.06
Others 33.69 13.04 4.22 40.85 0.00 0.07 6.01 2.11 0.00 1.28 4.04
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
78
54
TABLE 18: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES -
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (SELL)
BUYER
Market
SELLER Private Public Co- Market
Foreign Primary Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operative Others FIs Share
Banks Dealers Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 46.17 11.82 11.65 18.14 9.01 0.14 2.18 0.89 0.00 48.28 35.00
Primary Dealers 31.48 6.68 30.15 13.15 10.56 1.59 3.63 2.69 0.07 19.40 23.84
Private Sector Banks 36.10 23.40 13.58 14.19 6.60 2.74 2.53 0.87 0.00 19.20 22.07
Public Sector Banks 64.24 11.63 9.44 2.66 5.48 0.53 5.31 0.71 0.00 7.62 7.94
Mutual Funds 57.75 14.55 3.29 17.84 0.94 0.47 5.16 0.00 0.00 2.87 6.92
Co-operative Banks 3.07 9.49 33.11 6.56 0.00 42.71 0.76 4.31 0.00 1.78 1.57
Ins. Cos 62.69 11.61 6.97 11.61 6.97 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.00 0.58 1.09
Others 9.97 30.11 19.94 0.00 0.00 29.91 0.11 9.97 0.00 0.27 1.57
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TABLE 19: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES - TREASURY BILLS (BUY)
SELLER
Market
BUYER Public Private Co- Market
Foreign Mutual Primary Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operative Others FIs Share
Banks Funds Dealers Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 51.30 6.68 2.63 23.90 5.89 9.58 0.02 0.00 0.00 48.90 43.05
Public Sector Banks 10.30 6.69 5.35 72.76 2.06 1.47 1.36 0.00 0.00 34.60 23.29
Mutual Funds 35.13 19.25 0.00 10.52 0.00 35.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.51 4.86
Primary Dealers 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.08 6.84
Ins. Cos 1.20 34.41 0.00 55.79 0.00 0.00 8.60 0.00 0.00 2.69 12.06
Private Sector Banks 40.32 0.00 0.00 55.63 0.00 3.40 0.65 0.00 0.00 2.18 9.04
Co-operative Banks 0.00 25.11 0.00 64.84 0.00 10.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.92 0.86
TABLE 20: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES - TREASURY BILLS (SELL)
BUYER
Market
SELLER Public Private Co- Market
Primary Foreign Ins. Mutual Share (%)
Sector Sector operative FIs Others Share
Dealers Banks Cos Funds (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Primary Dealers 0.00 28.59 61.59 2.97 3.67 1.42 1.46 0.00 0.29 40.88 54.56
Foreign Banks 13.88 68.59 9.75 2.40 0.09 5.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.57 27.24
Public Sector Banks 0.00 41.88 29.68 0.00 11.87 13.60 2.97 0.00 0.00 7.80 3.72
Private Sector Banks 0.00 64.23 6.98 1.02 0.00 26.51 1.27 0.00 0.00 7.29 11.71
Ins. Cos 0.00 80.12 19.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.59 0.40
Mutual Funds 0.00 41.00 59.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.14 1.74
Co-operative Banks 0.00 1.27 64.94 1.95 31.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.63
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
79
NETTING FACTOR
Netting Factor denotes the extent of actual reduction achieved through multi-lateral offsetting of individual
member fund obligations (arising out of every trade) to a single net fund obligation. This process has
significantly reduced individual funding requirements for every member and also achieved reduction in market
liquidity risk.
80
TABLE 23: LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES TRANSACTED DURING THE MONTH
Days Volume Percent Market Average Daily Average Daily
No. of Volume for Percent
traded settled in last share in Capitali- Trading Value Trading Value in
Sr. Maturity Trades September - share in Turnover
Security (in last 12 months last 12 zation (FV in last 12 September -
No. Date (September, 2010 (FV in (September Ratio*
12 (FV in ` months in ` months (FV in 2010 (FV in
months) Crore) volume
2010) ` Crore) 2010)
Crore) ` Crore) ` Crore)
1 7.80% G.S. 2020 03-May-20 108 632732 23.69 13068 115530 46.35 47875.39 1321.62 5858.63 5501.43
2 8.13% G.S. 2022 21-Sep-22 83 109310 4.09 6179 46431 18.63 16686.31 655.09 1316.99 2321.55
3 7.17% G.S. 2015 14-Jun-15 76 85216 3.19 3150 29150 11.69 34300.70 248.44 1121.26 1388.10
4 8.08% G.S. 2022 02-Aug-22 26 20769 0.78 3070 21899 8.79 12064.51 172.15 798.81 1152.58
5 8.26% G.S. 2027 02-Aug-27 142 29171 1.09 1502 7648 3.07 32407.71 90.01 205.43 364.19
6 7.46% G.S. 2017 28-Aug-17 134 27598 1.03 799 6496 2.61 56682.58 48.69 205.96 309.33
7 7.99% G.S. 2017 09-Jul-17 48 6973 0.26 384 4517 1.81 39405.33 17.70 145.27 1129.25
8 7.40% G.S. 2012 03-May-12 231 69069 2.59 145 2301 0.92 33208.36 207.99 299.00 127.83
9 8.30% G.S. 2040 02-Jul-40 54 5114 0.19 239 1738 0.70 12967.50 39.44 94.70 86.90
10 6.90% OMC SB 2026 04-Feb-26 45 3447 0.13 97 1543 0.62 19206.14 17.95 76.60 192.88
11 7.27% G.S. 2013 03-Sep-13 200 33177 1.24 94 1505 0.60 46070.75 72.01 165.89 94.06
12 6.85% G.S. 2012 05-Apr-12 147 13238 0.50 47 1425 0.57 25944.39 51.02 90.05 109.62
13 7.02% G.S. 2016 17-Aug-16 238 329145 12.33 157 1330 0.53 57764.40 569.81 1382.96 70.00
14 9.39% G.S. 2011 02-Jul-11 166 27603 1.03 24 905 0.36 37765.09 73.09 166.28 113.13
15 8.20% G.S. 2022 15-Feb-22 156 281322 10.53 107 900 0.36 58252.86 482.93 1803.35 52.94
16 7.32% G.S. 2014 20-Oct-14 160 32434 1.21 24 695 0.28 17900.49 181.19 202.71 115.83
17 9.40% G.S. 2012 11-Sep-12 55 5358 0.20 8 665 0.27 11460.92 46.75 97.42 221.67
18 8.00% G.S. 2011 27-Apr-11 27 1636 0.06 5 600 0.24 1485.73 110.11 60.59 200.00
19 9.85% G.S. 2015 16-Oct-15 16 541 0.02 10 363 0.15 10912.58 4.96 33.81 90.75
20 6.35% G.S. 2020 02-Jan-20 218 459162 17.19 39 264 0.11 54670.57 839.87 2106.25 20.31
21 7% OMC SB 2012 09-Sep-12 16 540 0.02 9 245 0.10 5736.80 9.41 33.75 35.00
22 7.59% OMC SB 2015 23-Mar-15 10 318 0.01 7 210 0.08 1739.43 18.28 31.80 42.00
23 6.90% G.S. 2019 13-Jul-19 166 267645 10.02 10 210 0.08 42120.00 635.43 1612.32 42.00
24 10.71% G.S. 2016 19-Apr-16 4 210 0.01 9 205 0.08 10123.10 2.07 52.50 102.50
25 8.32% G.S. 2032 02-Aug-32 89 5182 0.19 56 200 0.08 15427.98 33.59 58.22 12.50
26 8.20% OMC SB 2024 15-Sep-24 146 6212 0.23 42 195 0.08 10203.53 60.88 42.55 12.19
*Turnover Ratio has been calculated as 12 months cumulative trading value as a percentage of market capitalization of respective security. Note: Prices used for calculating Market
Capitalization are Weighted Average prices as on September 29, 2010. In case of non availability Weighted Average prices, CCIL Model prices as on September 29, 2010 are used.
84
Cen. Govt. Dated 12 Month G-Sec Market Turnover
Month
Securities Volume Capitialisation Ratio (%)
Sep-06 134614 658298 1102636 59.70
Oct-06 63939 678657 1125373 60.31
Nov-06 158397 787813 1109312 71.02
Dec-06 78497 821101 1161197 70.71
Jan-07 74000 847399 1149828 73.70
Feb-07 60113 871704 1168370 74.61
Mar-07 45449 883248 1189326 74.26
Apr-07 68354 896513 1188531 75.43
May-07 68222 910574 1198425 75.98
Jun-07 92811 968519 1219959 79.39
Jul-07 204550 1138394 1270011 89.64
Aug-07 104680 1153627 1302665 88.56
Sep-07 85029 1104041 1323589 83.41
Oct-07 89923 1130025 1370857 82.43
Nov-07 67776 1039404 1388051 74.88
Dec-07 117893 1078800 1404825 76.79
Jan-08 295325 1300125 1445073 89.97
Feb-08 182597 1422608 1454517 97.81
Mar-08 90544 1467704 1441311 101.83
Apr-08 98286 1497636 1471828 101.75
May-08 129032 1558446 1464561 106.41
Jun-08 101475 1567109 1412037 110.98
Jul-08 83793 1446352 1395509 103.64
Aug-08 111093 1452765 1420737 102.25
Sep-08 153971 1521708 1448033 105.09
Oct-08 132519 1564304 1554434 100.63
85
Cen. Govt. Dated 12 Month G-Sec Market Turnover
Month
Securities Volume Capitialisation Ratio (%)
Mar-10 129266 2480850 2017871 122.94
Apr-10 208456 2451949 2053001 119.43
May-10 371385 2598945 2101580 123.67
Jun-10 315391 2699332 2123662 127.11
Jul-10 207742 2636084 2115872 124.59
Aug-10 259473 2749131 2150393 127.84
Sep-10 231393 2731394 2204437 123.90
MARKET SHARE
TABLE 25: MARKET SHARE OF TOP 'N' SECURITIES percent
Month Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20
2003-04 39.01 57.30 70.28 79.43
2004-05 49.97 66.31 74.56 80.36
2005-06 63.75 82.82 89.67 92.85
2006-07 74.88 88.82 92.37 94.88
2007-08 66.35 83.84 92.54 95.79
2008-09 61.07 73.89 81.92 87.35
2009-10 60.71 79.08 86.48 90.54
Apr-10 81.47 90.93 96.21 98.47
May-10 84.98 93.63 96.19 97.64
Jun-10 90.61 95.43 97.18 98.12
Jul-10 87.59 93.54 96.46 98.04
Aug-10 86.03 93.57 96.60 98.39
Sep-10 88.53 95.18 97.62 98.65
2010-11 (Upto September 2010) 77.47 89.05 94.01 95.91
86
TABLE 27: MARKET SHARE OF TOP FIVE (CATEGORY WISE) percent
Cooperative Foreign Public Sector Private Sector Mutual Primary
Categories
Banks Banks Banks Banks Funds Dealers
No of Members 33 28 27 20 26 8
2002-03 87.04 75.91 41.44 50.65 59.76 62.00
2003-04 76.72 75.48 43.88 53.33 55.47 62.96
2004-05 82.30 77.94 51.20 69.12 56.99 61.90
2005-06 75.10 77.91 53.45 71.55 56.49 56.95
2006-07 77.20 76.04 52.57 73.68 68.00 72.44
2007-08 86.70 74.99 55.29 73.01 70.20 86.20
2008-09 82.16 76.26 52.53 76.79 66.10 86.83
2009-10 72.08 79.86 47.99 79.61 64.19 82.44
Apr-10 65.04 77.39 45.36 83.67 69.82 84.69
May-10 64.11 82.01 44.60 79.07 73.56 85.76
Jun-10 70.30 83.35 44.67 81.71 58.00 87.17
Jul-10 56.91 85.15 54.81 75.10 73.44 86.78
Aug-10 62.88 83.75 55.26 75.16 59.90 83.51
Sep-10 62.74 83.65 64.51 57.01 61.62 83.28
2010-11 (Upto
64.53 82.77 49.70 76.98 67.08 85.31
September 2010)
TRADING ANALYSIS
TABLE 28: G-SEC TRADING VOLUMES Amount ` Crore
NDS-OM NDS
Month
Trades Volumes % share Trades Volumes % share
2005-06 38238 220805 56.36 29197 170937 43.64
2006-07 101091 643740 72.95 26943 238753 27.05
2007-08 155259 1160554 79.10 22753 306591 20.90
87
88
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
89
90
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
91
Days Traded
Days Traded
Market with less
Sr. No. of Value with 5 trades
ISINDESC Share Days Traded than 5
No. Trades (` Cr.) or more per
(%) trades per
day
day
14 6.90% OMC SB 2026 24 905 0.39 8 2 6
15 8.20% G.S. 2022 78 755 0.33 14 6 8
16 7.32% G.S. 2014 24 695 0.30 6 3 3
17 9.40% G.S. 2012 8 665 0.29 3 1 2
18 8.00% G.S. 2011 4 600 0.26 2 0 2
19 9.85% G.S. 2015 7 360 0.16 2 0 2
20 7% OMC SB 2012 9 245 0.11 7 0 7
21 6.35% G.S. 2020 23 229 0.10 6 2 4
22 6.90% G.S. 2019 10 210 0.09 5 1 4
23 10.71% G.S. 2016 9 205 0.09 2 1 1
24 8.32% G.S. 2032 30 180 0.08 13 1 12
25 8.20% OMC SB 2024 10 180 0.08 3 1 2
26 7.59% OMC SB 2015 6 160 0.07 4 0 4
27 8.24% G.S. 2027 12 150 0.07 5 1 4
28 6.72% G.S. 2014 9 130 0.06 3 0 3
29 8.28% G.S. 2032 14 130 0.06 9 0 9
30 FRB 2020 17 105 0.05 5 2 3
31 7.44% OMC SB 2012 3 100 0.04 3 0 3
32 10.45% G.S. 2018 12 95 0.04 3 1 2
33 8.33% G.S. 2036 8 85 0.04 4 0 4
34 7.47% OMC SB 2012 3 80 0.03 3 0 3
35 7.59% G.S. 2016 2 80 0.03 1 0 1
36 6.35% OMC SB 2024 6 75 0.03 4 0 4
37 11.03% G.S. 2012 1 65 0.03 1 0 1
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
92
TABLE 35: LIQUIDITY DISTRIBUTION IN SEPTEMBER 2010
(TRADES GREATER THAN ` 5 CRORE)
5 or more Trades Per Day Less than 5 Trades Per Day
Sr.
No. Days No. of Value Days No. of Value
ISINDESC ISINDESC
Traded Trades (` Cr.) Traded Trades (` Cr.)
1 7.80% G.S. 2020 20 12001 106850.00 8.32% G.S. 2032 12 25 155.00
2 7.17% G.S. 2015 20 2752 25875.00 6.85% G.S. 2012 9 16 775.00
3 8.26% G.S. 2027 20 915 6930.94 8.28% G.S. 2032 9 14 130.00
4 8.13% G.S. 2022 19 5620 41860.40 7.27% G.S. 2013 8 20 180.00
5 7.46% G.S. 2017 19 687 6015.00 8.20% G.S. 2022 8 20 150.00
6 8.08% G.S. 2022 18 3025 21645.00 8.30% G.S. 2040 7 14 201.65
7 7.02% G.S. 2016 13 146 1230.00 7% OMC SB 2012 7 9 245.00
8 8.30% G.S. 2040 12 146 1407.10 7.40% G.S. 2012 6 14 110.00
9 7.40% G.S. 2012 11 122 2111.00 9.39% G.S. 2011 6 9 370.00
10 7.27% G.S. 2013 7 57 915.00 7.02% G.S. 2016 5 9 90.00
11 8.20% G.S. 2022 6 58 605.00 6.35% G.S. 2020 4 10 130.00
12 7.99% G.S. 2017 4 379 4509.58 6.90% G.S. 2019 4 5 175.00
13 6.90% OMC SB 2026 4 77 1495.50 8.24% G.S. 2027 4 6 70.00
14 6.85% G.S. 2012 3 29 650.00 7.59% OMC SB 2015 4 6 160.00
15 7.32% G.S. 2014 3 17 525.00 8.33% G.S. 2036 4 8 85.00
16 9.39% G.S. 2011 2 15 535.00 6.35% OMC SB 2024 4 6 75.00
17 6.35% G.S. 2020 2 13 98.50 8.40% OMC SB 2026 4 6 50.80
18 FRB 2020 2 10 60.00 6.05% G.S. 2019 4 7 35.00
19 9.40% G.S. 2012 1 5 345.00 6.90% OMC SB 2026 3 4 26.07
20 6.90% G.S. 2019 1 5 35.00 7.32% G.S. 2014 3 7 170.00
21 10.71% G.S. 2016 1 8 200.00 FRB 2020 3 7 45.00
22 8.32% G.S. 2032 1 5 25.00 6.72% G.S. 2014 3 9 130.00
23 8.20% OMC SB 2024 1 7 134.60 7.44% OMC SB 2012 3 3 100.00
93
5 or more Trades Per Day Less than 5 Trades Per Day
Sr.
No. Days No. of Value Days No. of Value
ISINDESC ISINDESC
Traded Trades (` Cr.) Traded Trades (` Cr.)
40 7.59% G.S. 2016 1 2 80.00
41 11.03% G.S. 2012 1 1 65.00
42 7.38% G.S. 2015 1 2 46.06
43 11.50% G.S. 2011 1 1 40.00
44 6.07% G.S. 2014 1 2 25.00
45 7.95% FERT SB 2026 1 1 14.50
46 11.43% G.S. 2015 1 1 12.50
47 10.95% G.S. 2011 1 2 10.00
48 6.49% G.S. 2015 1 1 10.00
49 7.37% G.S. 2014 1 2 10.00
50 10.00% G.S. 2014 1 1 5.00
51 10.47% G.S. 2015 1 1 5.00
Total 168 309 5757
Expected Bond Days 1020
Efficiency 16.47
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
94
MONEY MARKET
TABLE 36: COMPARABLE WEIGHTED AVERAGE MONEY MARKET RATES AND DAILY VOLUMES
95
COLLATERALISED BORROWING AND LENDING OBLIGATION (CBLO)
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 203
Mutual Funds 47.69 18.48 16.85 8.06 3.33 2.78 2.38 0.43 0.00 75.51 62.77
Ins. Cos 38.36 24.30 13.05 10.62 5.29 4.31 3.35 0.68 0.04 12.50 12.75
Public Sector Banks 47.02 23.44 16.08 5.95 3.76 1.62 1.90 0.23 0.00 5.97 15.79
Foreign Banks 43.77 15.22 17.31 8.53 6.42 2.58 5.83 0.36 0.00 1.73 2.88
Private Sector Banks 40.16 28.83 13.15 5.59 5.91 2.54 3.81 0.00 0.00 1.61 2.45
Others 40.23 17.87 14.00 14.22 3.74 4.50 4.97 0.47 0.00 1.61 2.18
Co-operative Banks 10.44 19.58 17.90 16.72 11.70 2.85 19.62 1.19 0.00 0.53 0.66
FIs 45.19 27.34 11.62 0.80 6.57 6.42 2.07 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.51
Primary Dealers 12.53 16.38 27.78 11.02 5.56 0.00 26.72 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.01
96
TABLE 39: INTERCATEGORYWISE CBLO BORROWING
Lender Category
Market
Borrower Category Public Private Co- Market
Foreign Primary Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector Others FIs operative Share
Banks Dealers Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Public Sector Banks 6.11 1.65 1.40 1.41 0.01 0.50 0.12 78.36 10.44 45.96 43.62
Foreign Banks 7.12 1.34 2.36 1.47 0.03 0.71 0.52 70.99 15.46 19.65 12.53
Private Sector Banks 5.92 1.85 1.30 1.39 0.05 0.37 0.58 78.48 10.06 16.22 27.40
Others 4.26 1.78 1.08 2.75 0.04 0.05 1.05 73.05 15.94 8.33 5.14
Primary Dealers 5.96 2.96 2.52 1.60 0.05 0.89 1.62 66.83 17.57 3.76 3.85
FIs 3.30 1.52 1.39 2.47 0.00 1.11 0.51 71.40 18.31 2.93 2.79
Co-operative Banks 4.20 3.75 2.27 2.98 0.31 0.39 3.80 66.72 15.57 2.69 3.52
Mutual Funds 3.11 1.40 0.00 1.71 0.00 0.00 1.39 73.39 19.00 0.45 1.14
Ins. Cos 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.01 0.01
MARKET REPO
TABLE 40: REPO TERM ANALYSIS percent
O/N 2-3 days 4-7 days 8-14 days >14 days
Settlement Period % to % to % to % to %t to % to % to % to % to % to
total no total total no total total no total total no total total no total
of trades value of trades value of trades value of trades value of trades value
2002-03 50.05 50.15 30.96 31.01 15.46 15.95 2.26 1.78 1.27 1.11
2003-04 53.00 52.29 32.68 32.94 13.63 14.37 0.58 0.34 0.11 0.06
2004-05 68.29 69.29 26.30 24.23 5.30 6.35 0.09 0.11 0.02 0.02
2005-06 70.93 72.06 25.73 25.11 3.06 2.71 0.19 0.08 0.08 0.04
2006-07 73.68 75.19 21.58 21.06 4.32 3.57 0.12 0.07 0.31 0.11
2007-08 74.00 73.97 22.86 23.25 2.80 2.69 0.03 0.01 0.30 0.09
2008-09 68.24 68.69 27.17 27.04 4.35 4.17 0.07 0.03 0.17 0.07
97
TABLE 41: INSTRUMENT WISE SETTLEMENT VOLUMES FOR REPO TRADES
Amount ` Crore
Cen. Govt. Dated Treasury Bills State Govt
Settlement Period Avg. % Avg. Avg. %
Volumes Volumes % Share Volumes
Volumes Share Volumes Volumes Share
2002-03 403971 1360 86.28 64238 216 13.72 20 0 0.00
2003-04 874438 2974 92.71 59222 201 6.28 9530 32 1.01
2004-05 1262149 4322 81.02 286955 983 18.42 8803 30 0.57
2005-06 1369411 4674 80.81 277687 948 16.39 47411 162 2.80
2006-07 2126634 7233 83.19 379165 1290 14.83 50677 172 1.98
2007-08 3569960 12102 90.41 323984 1098 8.20 54807 186 1.39
2008-09 3475348 12109 84.88 583335 2033 14.25 35603 124 0.87
2009-10 5233295 18362 86.18 812537 2851 13.38 26996 95 0.44
Apr-10 351613 15288 75.24 113317 4927 24.25 2403 104 0.51
May-10 344320 14347 81.47 77209 3217 18.27 1108 46 0.26
Jun-10 198486 7634 80.52 47601 1831 19.31 410 16 0.17
Jul-10 266342 10244 85.28 44156 1698 14.14 1799 69 0.58
Aug-10 299519 11981 77.04 88764 3551 22.83 485 19 0.12
Sep-10 299245 13011 82.01 64164 2790 17.59 1468 64 0.40
2010-11 (Upto
1759525 11970 79.89 435210 2961 19.76 7673 52 0.35
September 2010)
Foreign Banks 0.00 40.13 53.04 0.00 3.46 0.00 0.00 3.37 0.00 10.87 37.16
Private Sector Banks 0.00 2.03 29.37 0.00 0.88 0.00 0.00 67.72 0.00 6.87 6.05
Ins. Cos 0.00 21.99 24.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 53.37 0.00 6.39 6.32
Public Sector Banks 0.00 47.20 19.29 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.00 33.07 0.00 3.09 7.08
FIs 0.00 18.28 60.60 0.00 3.82 0.00 0.00 17.29 0.00 0.71 0.59
Co-operative Banks 0.00 1.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.39 97.08 0.00 0.20 0.19
Primary Dealers 0.00 3.90 14.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 81.82 0.00 0.11 0.34
Others 0.00 0.00 45.74 0.00 48.81 0.00 0.00 5.44 0.00 0.10 0.15
98
TABLE 43: INTER-CATEGORY WISE REPO TRADES
Lender Category
Market
Borrower Category Private Public Market
Foreign Primary Co-op Ins. Mutual Share (%)
Sector Sector FIs Others share
Banks Dealers Banks Cos Funds (Previous
Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 9.94 0.32 0.01 3.32 0.01 0.42 3.02 82.96 0.00 43.91 24.12
Private Sector Banks 20.98 7.35 0.05 2.17 0.00 0.86 7.32 61.20 0.07 27.49 38.18
Primary Dealers 1.48 18.79 0.35 4.12 0.77 0.97 12.30 61.20 0.02 24.80 23.18
Public Sector Banks 10.12 1.62 0.00 0.37 0.00 1.42 0.00 84.78 1.68 3.72 14.09
Co-op Banks 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.63 0.00 0.00 96.37 0.00 0.08 0.43
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00
Ins. Cos 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00
Mutual Funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00
99
TABLE 45: CROMS MARKET SHARE Amount ` Crore
CROMS-SPECIAL CROMS-BASKET % Share of
Month CROMS in Repo
VOL %SHARE VOL %SHARE Volumes
Jan-09 1315.00 0.29 700.73 0.16 0.45
Feb-09 20781.00 4.74 152.00 0.03 4.77
Mar-09 71273.00 14.35 - - 14.35
Apr-09 37440.00 9.11 34126.80 8.31 17.42
May-09 53202.74 9.88 177070.99 32.87 42.74
Jun-09 42935.00 7.61 315403.77 55.92 63.53
Jul-09 63833.00 12.13 342058.64 64.98 77.11
Aug-09 47357.00 8.47 352887.34 63.10 71.56
Sep-09 112686.00 17.51 396767.00 61.66 79.17
Oct-09 89389.00 16.58 334993.00 62.15 78.73
Nov-09 90984.00 17.56 355057.05 68.53 86.09
Dec-09 37429.00 7.30 390097.84 76.13 83.44
Jan-10 50826.00 13.98 244916.72 67.37 81.35
Feb-10 51093.00 11.73 313516.74 71.95 83.67
Mar-10 65400.00 14.23 286571.61 62.37 76.60
Apr-10 62902.00 13.46 288664.26 61.78 75.25
May-10 83746.00 19.82 234052.77 55.39 75.21
Jun-10 54802.00 22.24 102221.41 41.48 63.72
Jul-10 84693.00 27.12 134610.98 43.10 70.22
Aug-10 59133.00 15.21 167021.43 42.97 58.18
Sep-10 61581.00 16.81 183192.24 50.02 66.83
100
CALL MONEY MARKET
CHART 18: MARKET SHARE IN NDS-CALL LENDING CHART 19: MARKET SHARE IN NDS-CALL BORROWING
101
TABLE 48: NDS-CALL VOLUMES - HISTORICAL Amount ` Crore
NDS- CALL Daily % share in total call
Month NDS-CALL Total Call Volumes
Average Volumes volumes
Sep-06 15503.95 1414.87 169360.71 9.15
Oct-06 32266.00 1466.64 339030.44 9.52
Nov-06 42539.00 1636.12 379206.39 11.22
Dec-06 70307.90 2812.32 363117.78 19.36
Jan-07 88199.35 3674.97 311261.93 28.34
Feb-07 95898.15 4359.01 285681.42 33.57
Mar-07 148204.42 6175.18 314600.65 47.11
Apr-07 212233.11 9646.96 351622.95 60.36
May-07 190944.61 7637.78 275612.98 69.28
Jun-07 189250.75 7278.88 244775.13 77.32
Jul-07 207373.70 8294.95 251851.89 82.34
Aug-07 258991.11 10359.64 341052.65 75.94
Sep-07 234377.65 10190.33 280787.87 83.47
Oct-07 219437.73 8439.91 267483.52 82.04
Nov-07 211303.75 8804.32 261994.76 80.65
Dec-07 192484.15 8020.17 226772.43 84.88
Jan-08 330291.94 13211.68 385224.27 85.74
Feb-08 277776.14 11111.05 314536.51 88.31
Mar-08 221434.00 10065.18 254471.82 87.02
Apr-08 216747.55 9423.81 260155.15 83.31
May-08 239433.00 9577.32 277010.51 86.43
Jun-08 268051.72 10722.07 314787.72 85.15
Jul-08 318357.53 12244.52 367075.98 86.73
Aug-08 280805.75 11700.24 321776.79 87.27
Sep-08 273684.65 11403.53 317404.76 86.23
Oct-08 302377.45 13744.43 348765.75 86.70
Nov-08 249184.70 10834.12 292109.10 85.31
Dec-08 253315.65 10132.63 299609.28 84.55
Jan-09 230981.50 9239.26 268808.29 85.93
Feb-09 230923.30 10496.51 281340.14 82.08
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
102
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
SETTLEMENT VOLUMES
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 73
TABLE 49: FOREX SETTLEMENT VOLUMES*
Cash Tom Spot Forward Total Average
Settlement Period Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume
Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume
Trades (USD Trades (USD Trades (USD Trades (USD Trades (USD Trades (USD
(` Cr) (` Cr) (` Cr) (` Cr) (` Cr) (` Cr)
Mn) Mn) Mn) Mn) Mn) Mn)
2002-03 - - - - - - 74423 96483 462370 25809 39619 195665 100232 136102 658035 1101 1496 7231
2003-04 1036 5951 26861 1555 9150 41335 251258 354541 1627644 76668 131700 622691 330517 501342 2318531 1425 2161 9994
2004-05 8747 69882 312311 16178 112750 504325 356382 533015 2389936 85020 184133 835863 466327 899780 4042435 1976 3813 17129
2005-06 12946 154626 686160 21307 199621 885585 371059 585089 2594240 84337 240352 1073689 489649 1179688 5239674 2084 5020 22296
2006-07 14292 233010 1050413 25708 316585 1427018 481702 884740 3993765 85106 342646 1551883 606808 1776981 8023078 2550 7466 33710
2007-08 15118 318055 1279466 25598 409979 1652802 609676 1595080 6426403 106683 810551 3368161 757074 3133665 12726832 3181 13167 53474
2008-09 15633 358244 1651695 26536 498767 2299036 675439 1815114 8263760 119912 1086778 4722998 837520 3758904 16937489 3657 16414 73963
2009-10 15733 363904 1719714 27643 484848 2295137 759149 1467601 6951459 81424 672619 3245177 883949 2988971 14211486 3843 12996 61789
Apr-10 1260 34521 153549 2298 49687 221187 78016 159878 712356 6918 67507 315600 88492 311594 1402692 4657 16400 73826
May-10 1441 36945 169248 2394 48432 221174 84904 179344 819164 6088 52061 241933 94827 316783 1451519 4991 16673 76396
Jun-10 1559 34630 161303 2675 51294 238873 94495 194622 906980 7325 69596 325726 106054 350142 1632882 4821 15916 74222
Jul-10 1523 33967 159093 2572 45797 214670 80848 166922 781751 6835 61502 288733 91778 308188 1444247 4370 14676 68774
Aug-10 1907 50883 236847 3122 68979 321021 77233 163916 762916 7010 62712 295892 89272 346491 1616675 4251 16500 76985
Sep-10 1560 40320 185581 2443 46437 214137 79911 164701 760517 7471 74666 350471 91385 326124 1510707 4810 17164 79511
2010-11 (Upto
9250 231267 1065620 15504 310627 1431062 495407 1029382 4743684 41647 388045 1818355 561808 1959321 9058722 4643 16193 74865
September 2010)
Notes:
*CCIL commenced operations on November 12, 2002
#Cash and Tom settlement is with effect from February 5, 2004.
Note : Spot figures are inclusive of spot leg of swap
May-04
Sep-04
May-05
Sep-05
May-06
Sep-06
May-07
Sep-07
May-08
Sep-08
May-09
Sep-09
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-04
104
TABLE 51: FOREX DEAL SIZE ANALYSIS percent
> 1 mn > 5 mn > 10 mn
< 1 mn 1 mn > 20 mn
<= 5 mn <= 10 mn <= 20 mn
Settlement
Period % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to
total total total total total total total total total total total total
trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value
2002-03 21.93 7.23 52.61 38.74 24.53 46.47 0.70 4.42 0.19 2.25 0.04 0.89
2003-04 20.74 6.07 49.79 32.82 28.02 50.16 1.07 6.12 0.30 3.18 0.08 1.65
2004-05 21.26 4.77 44.14 22.88 31.22 47.19 1.94 8.70 0.97 8.21 0.47 8.25
2005-06 20.32 3.66 42.70 17.72 31.55 40.18 2.77 10.27 1.58 11.18 1.08 16.99
2006-07 21.57 3.29 39.00 13.32 32.03 34.85 3.68 11.50 1.95 11.41 1.77 25.64
2007-08 16.67 1.81 33.75 8.15 36.19 29.18 8.62 19.93 2.13 8.78 2.63 32.15
2008-09 17.00 1.64 32.19 7.17 35.41 25.85 10.31 22.22 2.16 8.20 2.93 34.92
2009-10 20.10 2.55 44.55 13.18 25.18 23.58 5.90 16.56 1.93 9.78 2.33 34.35
Apr-10 19.07 2.39 45.70 12.98 25.89 23.39 5.22 13.94 1.77 8.61 2.35 38.69
May-10 18.65 2.40 46.44 13.90 25.21 24.14 5.81 16.55 1.81 9.31 2.08 33.69
Jun-10 18.41 2.39 47.93 14.52 24.80 24.30 5.07 14.56 1.65 8.51 2.14 35.71
Jul-10 18.37 2.35 48.34 14.40 24.21 23.48 4.99 14.06 1.88 9.78 2.20 35.93
Aug-10 18.06 2.00 47.42 12.22 24.10 20.15 5.39 13.20 2.05 9.29 2.99 43.14
Sep-10 17.81 2.16 47.50 13.31 24.92 22.29 5.40 14.27 1.76 8.51 2.61 39.45
2010-11 (Upto
18.40 2.28 47.24 13.55 24.85 22.93 5.31 14.42 1.81 8.99 2.38 37.83
September 2010)
105
INTERCATEGORY ANALYSIS OF SETTLEMENT VOLUMES
CHART 21: CATEGORY WISE SETTLEMENT ANALYSIS
Cooperative
Private Sector Bank Banks 0.15%
16.91% (18.33%) (0.13%) Financial
Institution
0.01% (0.02%)
106
TABLE 56: MARKET SHARE percent
Settlement Period Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20
2002-03 33.65 57.73 72.42 83.30
2003-04 30.53 54.83 69.59 79.45
2004-05 29.00 49.45 63.61 73.61
2005-06 30.59 52.45 68.38 78.89
2006-07 31.15 50.93 65.08 73.69
2007-08 39.66 61.31 76.24 84.55
2008-09 39.65 62.30 76.97 85.71
2009-10 33.13 55.14 71.31 81.51
Apr-10 36.57 57.10 73.55 82.41
May-10 34.35 55.84 70.90 80.98
Jun-10 36.41 56.55 73.24 82.85
Jul-10 35.01 57.51 72.40 81.37
Aug-10 38.87 61.53 75.97 83.52
Sep-10 35.84 57.79 73.96 82.74
2010-11 (Upto September 2010) 36.34 57.96 73.63 82.62
107
CHART 22: USD-INR SPOT CURVE
47.80 6.36
47.45 5.86
09-Sep-10
27-Sep-10
05-Apr-10
21-Apr-10
06-May-10
21-May-10
09-Aug-10
25-Aug-10
08-Jun-10
23-Jun-10
08-Jul-10
23-Jul-10
Date
Spot Rate Annualised Forward Premia (6 mths)
108
FOREX TRADING PLATFORM:FX-CLEAR
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 65
TABLE 59: FX- CLEAR TRADING VOLUMES Amount in USD Million
Spot Daily Average
Settlement Period
Trades Volume Trades Volume
2003-04 881 646 5 4.00
2004-05 3319 2243 14 9.12
2005-06 16636 11893 68 48.74
2006-07 46551 33262 190 135.76
2007-08 73941 49138 298 198.14
2008-09 79125 46889 332 197.01
2009-10 99091 53435 415 223.58
Apr-10 10271 5574 541 293.36
May-10 9057 4737 453 236.83
Jun-10 8736 4517 397 205.31
Jul-10 8248 4278 375 194.47
Aug-10 8474 4475 404 213.12
Sep-10 8823 4711 441 235.55
2010-11 (Upto September 2010) 53609 28292 432 228.16
109
DERIVATIVES
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 66
110
TABLE 61: INTEREST RATE SWAPS MARKET SHARE - SEPTEMBER 2010
percent
MIBOR MIFOR
Category BUY SELL TOTAL BUY SELL TOTAL
Notional Notional Notional Notional Notional Notional
Deals Deals Deals Deals Deals Deals
Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount
Foreign Banks 75.38 78.17 76.96 79.17 76.17 78.67 93.51 95.87 79.22 85.85 86.36 90.86
Nationalized
1.41 0.64 1.82 1.17 1.62 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00
Banks
Primary Dealers 8.79 8.09 8.50 7.83 8.64 7.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00
Private Banks 14.42 13.10 12.72 11.83 13.57 12.46 6.49 4.13 20.78 14.15 13.64 9.14
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100 100.00
CHART 23: MARKET SHARE IN MIBOR SWAPS TABLE 62: TOP “N” MARKET SHARE
IN MIBOR SWAPS
Primary Dealers Private Banks MIBOR MIFOR
Nationalized 7.96% 12.46%
Top 1 21.97 16.66
Banks
0.91% Top 5 53.91 64.69
Top 10 78.37 90.83
Foreign Banks
78.67%
Private Banks
9.14%
111
TABLE 64: IRS TRADE SUMMARY Amount ` Crore
112
TABLE 65: NETTING FACTOR - IRS NON-GUARANTEED SETTLEMENT Amount ` Crore
Settlement Period Gross Amount Net Amount Netting %
2009-10 13863.29 3688.24 73.40
Apr-10 2107.47 485.17 76.98
May-10 1879.50 412.74 78.04
Jun-10 3114.68 624.36 79.95
Jul-10 2474.48 513.13 79.26
Aug-10 2239.13 482.20 78.46
Sep-10 2038.63 470.94 76.90
2010-11 (Upto September 2010) 13853.89 2988.55 78.43
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
0.5 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Tenor
September 29, 2010 August 31, 2010 September 29, 2009
113
TABLE 66: YIELD MOVEMENT OF TEN YEAR BENCHMARK - 7.80% G.S. 2020
Date Wtd avg yld
1-Sep-10 7.9375
2-Sep-10 7.9718
3-Sep-10 7.9678
6-Sep-10 7.9945
7-Sep-10 7.9528
8-Sep-10 7.9308
9-Sep-10 7.9000
13-Sep-10 7.9618
14-Sep-10 7.9572
15-Sep-10 7.9308
16-Sep-10 7.9613
17-Sep-10 7.9861
20-Sep-10 7.9733
21-Sep-10 7.9811
22-Sep-10 7.9430
23-Sep-10 7.9362
24-Sep-10 7.8567
27-Sep-10 7.8697
28-Sep-10 7.8461
29-Sep-10 7.8374
8.20
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
7.90
(%)
7.60
7.30
7.00
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Oct-09
Feb-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Apr-10
Aug-10
Date
10-year Yield
114
TABLE 67: SPREAD ON STATE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (SDLs)
State Trades Traded Volume (` Crore) Average Spread (bps)
ANDHRA PRADESH 90 3586.50 37.17
GUJARAT 56 1358.60 36.99
JAMMU AND KASHMIR 3 200.00 37.89
MAHARASTRA 87 5170.10 36.86
MEGHALAYA 3 104.00 32.89
PUNJAB 16 724.40 37.41
RAJASTHAN 7 700.00 39.69
TAMIL NADU 111 4037.00 36.44
UTTAR PRADESH 75 4929.30 38.41
WEST BENGAL 39 2001.80 37.04
Total 487 22811.70 37.50
Note: Spread has been calculated on the basis of deals settled through CCIL taking into account only outright deals of Rs.5 Crore and
above. The methodology and other information on the spread can be requested from Economic Research Department, CCIL
0.2500
0.2000
Change in yield (bps)
0.1500
0.1000
0.0500
0.0000
-0.0500
Change (bps)
115
TABLE 68: YIELD SPREADS
Change in Change in
YTM Change in YTM(bps) Spread over 1 year(bps)
spreads spreads
Year (bps) (bps)
September August September Month to Year on September August September Month to Year on
29, 2010 31, 2010 29, 2009 Month Year 29, 2010 31, 2010 29, 2009 Month Year
2010 4.9135 - - - - - - -
2011 6.6585 6.3924 5.7973 27 86 - - 88 - -
2012 6.9670 6.7968 6.5466 17 42 31 40 163 -10 -132
2013 7.2073 7.1419 6.8468 7 36 55 75 193 -20 -138
2014 7.5463 7.2797 6.8717 27 67 89 89 196 0 -107
2015 7.6801 7.6673 7.1450 1 54 102 127 223 -25 -121
2016 7.8223 7.8767 7.1571 -5 67 116 148 224 -32 -108
2017 7.8591 7.9581 7.1582 -10 70 120 157 224 -37 -104
2018 7.9329 7.9554 7.2572 -2 68 127 156 234 -29 -107
2019 7.9220 7.9289 7.1464 -1 78 126 154 223 -27 -97
2020 7.8373 7.9483 7.5720 -11 27 118 156 266 -38 -148
2021 7.9903 8.1312 7.8056 -14 18 133 174 289 -41 -156
2022 7.9728 8.1534 7.6701 -18 30 131 176 276 -45 -144
2023 8.1268 8.2170 7.8769 -9 25 147 182 296 -36 -150
2024 8.1916 8.2581 7.7510 -7 44 153 187 284 -33 -130
2025 8.2539 8.3037 8.0714 -5 18 160 191 316 -32 -156
2026 8.2960 8.3346 8.1392 -4 16 164 194 323 -30 -159
2027 8.2665 8.3508 8.1230 -8 14 161 196 321 -35 -160
2028 8.3513 8.3287 8.2170 2 13 169 194 330 -24 -161
2032 8.4150 8.4453 8.1758 -3 24 176 205 326 -30 -151
2034 8.3170 8.3760 8.1644 -6 15 166 198 325 -33 -159
2035 8.4317 8.4704 8.1539 -4 28 177 208 324 -30 -147
2036 8.4339 8.4750 8.1458 -4 29 178 208 323 -31 -146
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Note: Weighted Average yield of most liquid security for each tenor is considered.
116
CCIL NFS-ATM
IDRBT has appointed CCIL as the designated Settlement Agency for Interbank settlement of ATM transactions within the
members of National Financial Switch (NFS). CCIL started the settlement of ATM transactions from August 27, 2004.
117
CORPORATE BONDS
September'10 witnessed an increase in the bucket. The maturity wise analysis of the securities
borrowing of corporates in the corporate bond issued during September is given in the table below.
market. 146 securities were issued during the
There was a marginal increase (5%) in the secondary
month as against 99 in August'10. Of these,
market corporate bond volumes during the month.
Finance Companies continued to account for a
Average daily volumes on the FIMMDA reporting
major share (58%), followed by Infrastructure
platform was at `1681 crore compared to `1631
Companies (23.29%), Manufacturing Companies
crore in the previous month. On the NSE platform
(13.01%) and finally Other Corporates (5.48%) .
average daily volume was at Rs. 530 crore as against
The average coupon of the securities issued during `539 crore in August. On the BSE reporting
the month was 8.83%, as compared to 9% in platform average volumes rose significantly to `164
August. Fixed coupon bonds dominated the crore as against `87 crore in August. The 5 year AAA
issuance with a share of 78% in the total issuance, bond spread widened to 102bps as against 94bps in
followed by floating rate bonds with a share of the previous month. However the longer term 10
19.18%. The issuances were mostly around the 2-5 year AAA corporate bond spread narrowed to
year tenor, followed by the 10-15 year maturity 83bps as against 96bps during the previous month.
118
TABLE 71: HISTORICAL CORPORATE BONDS TRADING DETAILS Amount ` Crore
119
TABLE 72: CORPORATE BONDS TRADING DETAILS Amount ` Crore
120
TABLE 74: TOP 25 TRADED BONDS
Volume
No. Security Description Rating Category Maturity Coupon (%) Trades Yield (%)
(` Cr.)
1 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 15-Sep-12 7.89 45 2009.00 7.9000
2 ECL FINANCE LIMITED AA- Finance 27-Oct-10 5.75 25 1289.00 5.7500
3 INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Oil 24-Jul-12 7.00 39 1262.00 7.7000
4 NATIONAL HOUSING BANK AAA Finance 13-Sep-13 7.85 23 1255.00 7.8604
5 INFOTEL BROADBAND SERVICES LIMITED - Others 15-Sep-20 8.95 21 1225.00 8.9466
6 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 15-Jul-12 7.10 33 950.00 7.7250
7 BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Oil 28-Oct-11 6.23 20 900.00 7.7925
8 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 22-Apr-11 6.84 23 869.60 7.9700
9 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 8-Oct-10 Zero Coupon 20 772.50 6.6300
10 RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Infrastructure 6-Oct-12 7.90 15 720.00 7.9500
11 INDIAN RAILWAY FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 7-Jan-13 8.75 19 700.00 7.9400
12 EXIM BANK AAA Finance 26-Aug-13 7.6 7 700.00 7.5980
13 SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED AAA Finance 13-Sep-17 Reset Rate 3 679.00 7.0000
14 LIC HOUSING FINANCE LIMITED AAA Finance 15-Sep-20 8.95 86 654.70 8.9600
15 NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT AAA Finance 15-Oct-12 9.50 20 640.20 7.8000
16 EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED P1+ Finance 26-Oct-10 7.50 9 605.00 7.5000
17 LIC HOUSING FINANCE LIMITED AAA Finance 11-Dec-10 7.10 8 585.00 3.7300
18 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 24-Aug-11 Zero Coupon 15 570.00 7.7900
19 ECL FINANCE LIMITED AA- Finance 22-Oct-10 7.25 6 570.00 7.2500
20 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 9-Mar-12 Zero Coupon 15 536.80 8.0500
21 EDELWEISS CAPITAL LIMITED P1+ Finance 27-Oct-10 5.50 9 510.00 5.5000
22 INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED AA+ Infrastructure 21-Dec-11 Zero Coupon 4 500.00 4.0500
23 RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPORATIO N LIMITED AAA Infrastructure 12-Jul-25 8.75 55 489.90 8.8000
24 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 14-May-20 8.70 71 473.80 8.7500
25 NATIONAL HOUSING BANK - Finance 30-Aug-13 8.2 32 432.60 8.1988
• October 25, 2002 - Started publication of • June 15, 2004 - Operationalised “Straight
“Weekly Market Update” containing weekly Through Processing” arrangement for
statistics and analysis of settlement settlement of foreign exchange trades done on
information and important market Fx Clear.
developments. • August 2004 “Rakshitra” was made a
• November 8, 2002 - CCIL commenced monthly newsletter.
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
guaranteed settlement of Forex (Spot & • August 27, 2004 - Started clearing and
Forwards) transactions. settlement of ATM transactions of National
• January 20, 2003 - CCIL launched Financial Switch operated by Institute for
Collateralized Borrowing and Lending Development and Research in Banking
Obligations (CBLO). Technology (IDRBT).
• April 1, 2003 - All trades in the securities • October 14, 2004 - Govt. Securities Lending
settlement got routed through CCIL. and Borrowing Scheme was operationalised.
• June 4, 2003 - Set up a wholly owned • January 2005 - CCIL received regulatory
Subsidiary Company Clearcorp Dealing approval for commencement of cross
Systems (India) Ltd. to manage dealing currency deals through CLS Bank by availing
platforms in Money and Currency Markets. the third party services of ABN AMRO Bank
as the settlement bank.
• July 19, 2003 - Operationalised Anonymous
Auction System to facilitate Buy Back of • January 31, 2005 CCIL released its Sovereign
Government Securities by Government of Bond Indices, CCIL BROAD GILTS INDEX,
122
consisting of top 20 traded securities and • July 2006 CCIL receives ISO/IEC 27001:
CCIL LIQUID GILTS INDEX, consisting of 2005 certification for securing its information
the 5 most liquid bonds, to track the assets.
movement of the government securities • August 2006 Electronic Receipt and
market. Confirmation System (ERCS) launched to
• February 7, 2005 CCIL started releasing enable CCIL members to submit their
comparative intra day money market rates of deposits and withdrawal request through the
Call, Repo and CBLO markets on its website. electronic media.
• April 6, 2005 Commenced settlement of cross • September 4, 2006 - CCIL released its CCIL
currency transactions through CLS. ALL SOVEREIGN BOND INDICES
• May 2, 2005 CCIL released its T-Bill index (CASBI), which would reflect the broad
consisting of two T-bill indices CCIL movement of the market. The base date of the
EQUAL WEIGHT T-bills INDEX and CCIL index is January 1, 2004.
LIQUIDITY WEIGHT T-bills INDEX. The • September 4, 2006 CCIL launched its eNotice
CCIL T-bills indices are instruments that System available to all members for sending
would capture the market movement in the their collateral notices in electronics form.
short term maturity segment. • September 11, 2006 Launch of Intraday
• June 29, 2005 The Forex segment recorded the Securities Withdrawal in CBLO segment.
highest netting factor of 97.15%. • September 18, 2006 - NDS - CALL, and
• August 1, 2005 Launching of NDS Order electronic screen-based quote driven dealing
Matching System (NDS-OM). system for all Call, Notice and Term Money
• August 16, 2005- CBLOi ((Internet Trading operations was launched. The system
System for Non-NDS Members) commenced facilitates negotiation between counterparties
operations. and monitors counterparty exposure limits, as
also adherence to regulatory limits.
123
• May 21, 2007 - Version 3.0 of NDS-OM and Special Repos for T+0 and T+1 settlement
launched on May 21, 2007 enabling odd lot tenors.
trading on the NDS-OM platform, trading of • February 11, 2009 - CCIL became the first
new securities in the when issued market and organization to be granted authorisation by the
trading of CSGL entities on this platform. Reserve Bank of India under “The Payment &
• July 03, 2007 CCIL started releasing the daily Settlement Systems Act- 2007”.
Spot reference rates on the CCIL website. • May 11, 2009 Version 2 of NDS Auction
• August 30, 2007 CCIL's reporting platform for module went live to facilitate bidding in
the transaction in OTC interest rate derivatives primary Dated Securities auctions.
(Interest Rate Swaps and Forward Rate • June 1, 2009- The CCIL SDL Index was
Agreements (IRS/FRA) became operational. launched to track the market for SDLs through
• September 10, 2007 - Version 2.0 of NDS-CALL a representative index.
electronic screen-based quote driven dealing • June 1, 2009 - The CCIL Tenor Index was
system for Call, Notice & Term money was launched to capture the tenor wise movement
launched. The enhancements include User across the term structure.
hierarchy with multiple user levels with pre set
role privileges and risk mitigation measures • December 1, 2009 - CCIL commenced the
such as assigning Single Order Limit and settlement of forex forward trades with
setting up of exposure limits for guarantee from the trade date.
Counterparties at various levels. • May 31, 2010 - Launch of FX-SWAP Dealing
• November 12, 2007 - The Depository Trust & System an anonymous order driven matching
Clearing Corporation (DTCC) and The system which offers guaranteed settlement of
Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) forward trades from the point of trade.
have signed a Memorandum of Understanding • August 11, 2010 - CCIL started settlement of
(MOU) aimed at promoting closer 'India-Pay Mobile Payment Service - India Pay
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
collaboration between the two market Switch' file on a Non Guaranteed basis.
infrastructure organizations.
• September 4-9, 2010 - CCIL successfully
• November 27, 2008 - CCIL commenced Non- conducted “Live Operations” of all business its
Guaranteed Settlement of OTC Trades in applications from DR Pune datacenter
Rupee Derivatives. validating its infrastructure capabilities and
• January 1, 2009 - CCIL launched the CCIL different disaster scenarios.
Certification Programme.
• January 27, 2009 - Clearcorp launched
'Clearcorp Repo Order Matching System'
(CROMS), a STP enabled electronic
anonymous order matching platform to
facilitate dealing in market repos in
government securities. CROMS facilitates
dealing in two kinds of Repos viz. Basket Repos
124
KEY PERSONNEL/HODs
Sr.
Person Designation and Department Phone No.
No
1 Dr. R.H. Patil Chairman 66639202
6 Mr. O.N. Ravi Company Secretary & Corporate Development Officer 66639341
8 Mr. Deepak Chande Senior Vice President , Finance & Accounts 66639352
9 Dr. Golaka C. Nath Senior Vice President, Economic Research & Surveillance, Membership 66639391
Senior Vice President , Operations (Fixed Income & Money Market)
10 Mr. Pradeep. K. Naik 66639231
Department
11 Mr. Kamal Singhania Vice President , Forex 66639361
16 Mr. Santosh Bhalerao Asst. Vice President , Information Technology Department 66639442
17 Mr. Amol Pradhan Jr. Vice President, Funds and Collateral. Mgmt 66639247
19 Mr. Bijesh Muthirakkal Jr. Vice President, Information Technology Department 66639434
20 Mr. N. Venkatraman Jr. Vice President, CBLO and Securities Settlement 66639215
125
Published by the Research Department, CCIL
Previous Issues
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Rakshitra Vol I No. III (Jan - Mar ‘03) Rakshitra Vol IV No. XII (June ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. III (September '08)
Rakshitra Vol II No. I (Apr - Jun ‘03) Rakshitra Vol V No. I (July ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. IV (October '08)
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Rakshitra Vol II No. III (Oct - Dec ‘03) Rakshitra Vol V No. III (September ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. VI (December ‘08)
Rakshitra Vol II No. IV (Jan - Mar ‘04) Rakshitra Vol V No. IV (October ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. VII (January ‘09)
Rakshitra Vol III No. I (Apr - Jun ‘04) Rakshitra Vol V No. V (November ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. VIII (February ‘09)
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Rakshitra Vol III No. V (November ‘04) Rakshitra Vol V No. IX (March ‘07) Rakshitra Vol VII No. XII (June ‘09)
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Rakshitra Vol III No. VII (January ‘05) Rakshitra Vol V No. XI (May '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. II (August ‘09)
Rakshitra Vol III No. VIII (February ‘05) Rakshitra Vol V No. XII (June '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. III (September ‘09)
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Rakshitra Vol III No. X (April ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. II (August '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. V (November ‘09)
Rakshitra Vol III No. XI (May ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. III (September '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. VI (December ‘09)
Rakshitra Vol III No. XII (June ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. IV (October '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. VII (January ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol III No. I (July ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. V (November '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. VIII (February ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol III No. II (August ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. VI (December '07) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. IX (March ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. III (September ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. VII (January '08) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. X (April ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. IV (October ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. VIII (February '08) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. XI (May ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. V (November ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. IX (March '08) Rakshitra Vol VIII No. XII (June‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. VI (December ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. X (April '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. I (July‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. VII (January ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VI No. XI (May '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. II (August ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. VIII (February ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VI No. XII (June '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. III (September ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. IX (March ‘06)
DISCLAIMER: This Newsletter contains information relating to the operations of The Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL), its Members
and The Reserve Bank of India. While CCIL has taken every care to ensure that the information and/or data provided are accurate and complete,
CCIL does not warrant or make any representation as to the accuracy and completeness of the same. Accordingly, CCIL assumes no responsibility
for any errors and omissions in any section or sub-section of this Newsletter.
The views expressed in the articles by the authors are their own and CCIL does not accept any responsibility. CCIL shall not be liable to any
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