International Journal of Emerging Researches in Engineering Science and Technology, Volume 2, Issue 6, July ’15

TRANSPORT DEMAND AND SUPPLY

MODELING FOR CHENNAI CITY-A
SYSTEMS APPROACH
S.Gayathri*
#M.E Transportation Engineering, Anna University, College of Engineering,
Guindy, Chennai-20
gayathrirspv@gmail.com
Chennai City has three major rail corridors and MRTS
Abstract- Urban transportation system is a
corridor to meet the travel demand of the people. Apart
complex system with multiple variables and feedback
loops between subsystems and influencing factors. from this it has good metropolitan buses which meet the
The sustainable development of urban transportation
demand at the maximum. At present there are very less
system is a key point to strike the resource-saving,
environment-friendly, and people-oriented society. number of studies establishing the overall travel demand
Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city of
supply and to propose the future course of action. Thus it
India which covers an area of 426 sq.km and
recorded a population of 4.79 million in 2014. This is imperative to develop a dynamic model which would
would translate into an estimated 17.3 million daily
exhibit the invention of various transportation facilities
vehicle-trips in the year 2026, which will be about
two times the present vehicle-trips. The rapid in Chennai and to estimate the travel demand for both
increase in population leads to traffic congestion and
present and future situation. Hence proper planning
imbalanced supply and demand of transport
facilities. Chennai Metropolitan Area’s increase in measures should be adopted to reduce the increasing
overall growth will require an adequate and efficient
trend of personalized vehicles and make our city a less
transport system to meet the anticipated population
by 2026. Existing transportation problems would get congested one.
compounded and become chaotic if not adequately
addressed. Therefore, system dynamics (SD)
approach is intend to be used in this study to simulate II. NEED FOR THE STUDY
the evolution of urban transportation system. The
developed model is used to test various scenarios and
Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city
policy options as per the stand point of government
policy and intuitive policy options and to suggest of India which covers an area of 426 sq.km and recorded
appropriate course of actions in a phase-wise manner
a population of 4.79 million in 2014. The CMA which
towards achieving sustainable transportation
planning for the study areas. extends over an area of 1189 sq.km recorded the
System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of
population of 8.91 million in 2014. This would translate
both transport demand and supply would be evolved
as to reduce the transport demand of personalized into an estimated 17.3 million daily vehicle-trips in the
vehicles on par with the possible supply of public
year 2026, which will be about two times the present
vehicles that would be provided in the Chennai city
under phase-wise and time-wise manner. vehicle-trips. This rapid increase in population leads to
Keywords- Vehicle Growth, Transport demand,
traffic congestion and imbalanced supply and demand of
Transport Supply, System Dynamics,..
transport facilities. The per capita trip rate for the CMA
has increased from 1.28 in 1992 to 1.6 over the last 17
I.INTRODUCTION
years and increase in the total travel demand to 1.3 crore
The conception of sustainable urban
trips from 74.5 lakh trips. The per capita motorized trip
transportation comprises four aspects, namely,
rate increased to 1.06 in the same time period.
transportation sustainability, economic sustainability,
environmental sustainability and social sustainability.

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International Journal of Emerging Researches in Engineering Science and Technology, Volume 2, Issue 6, July ’15

In the light of these trends, the current study on both environmental and quality of life sectors to
provides optimal solutions, focusing on a larger model the various policy options.
comprehensive thought process and on policy issues on B. Software Used
the need to ‘move people –rather than vehicles’.

The model of transport and energy interaction

using the System Dynamics (SD) has been
III. Objectives of the Study
implemented in the ‘STELLA’ environment

• To study and appreciate the trend of transport (‘STELLA 9.1’ package).

development in Chennai with regards to
C. Description of Study Area
Transportation Demand and Supply.

• To build a Macro level system dynamics

The area selected for study is Chennai
simulation model for the existing and
city. Chennai is the fourth most populous
predicted period of Chennai city and peri
metropolitan area. The Chennai Metropolitan Area
urban corridor of CMA.
(CMA) is spread over an area of 1,189 km2 (459
• To develop a model to access the extent of
sq mi) which consists of Chennai city (174 km2)
land use development and its scope in future
for Chennai and peri urban Corridor.
and parts of Thiruvallur and Kanchipuram districts.

• The developed model is used to test various Chennai city is governed by the Chennai
scenarios and policy options as per the stand Corporation which was established in 1688 and is
point of government policy and intuitive the oldest municipal corporation in India. In 2011,
policy options. the jurisdiction of the Chennai Corporation was
• To suggest appropriate course of actions in a expanded from 174 km2 (67 sq mi) to an area of
phase-wise manner towards achieving
426 km2 (164 sq mi).
sustainable transportation planning for the
study areas. Fig 1 Chennai City
A. Need For System Dynamics Approach
It should be noted that the Transport
Energy system is a complex system with
interdisciplinary system components and feedback
connectivity between its subsystems and other
multidisciplinary systems such as population,
transport, land use and exhibits a dynamic
behaviour. Hence it is not appropriate to use the
conventional approach to describe the
characteristics of this complex system.

As System Dynamics operated on the

basis of feedback information, it is used as a
methodology to simulate the future transport
demands in the transportation sector and its impact

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E. Model Development and Analysis

The sectors under consideration for this I) Population Sector:Population (t) = Population (t-
study are Population, Transport demand and dt) + (Birth_Rate + Inmigration_Rate –
Transport Supply(Trips). Death_Rate – Out_Migration_Rate) * dt

D. CASUAL LOOP DIAGRAM Fig 4 Population Model

POPULATION MODEL
Fig 2 Casual Loop Diagram for Transport
Sector

DN
IMN
IMR

POP

BR DR

Table 1
OMR OMN
BN

Graph 1

The graphical output from the Population

Sector model has been given in Figure 4 which
shows a declining trend in Birth and Death rates in
Fig 3 Casual Loop Diagram for Non Motorized accordance with the health policy of the
Trips Government.

Fig 5 Population Growth Trend (2011-

2026)

1: P0P 2: BR 3: DR 4: IMR 5: OMR

1: 4900000
2: 105000
3: 40000
4: 110000 1
5: 130000 2
5
3 1 5
4
4
5
1: 4600000
2: 70000 2 4
3: 25000 3
1
4: 100000
5: 120000 5
4
2 3

1: 4300000 3
2: 35000 2
1
3: 10000
4: 90000
5: 110000
2001.00 2007.25 2013.50 2019.75 2026.00
Page 1 Time 03:39 PM 29 May 2012
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International Journal of Emerging Researches in Engineering Science and Technology, Volume 2, Issue 6, July ’15

II) Transport Demand Sector F) Scenario Analysis and Model Results

In the Do Minimum scenario, the existing
Fig 6 Model Development
trend of growth rates of MTC buses, Two
Wheelers, Cars, IPT vehicles and Mini bus has
Transport Demand Sector

been allowed to continue till the year 2026. The

~ ~
~
~
GR TW Tot TW
Persons per TW per day GR bus Tot bus Passengers per bus
per day result showed that the share of Public Transport

TW Inc
TW Trips Bus Inc
Bus Trips
trips amounts to only 41% whereas the trips by
Personalised Vehicles constitute the major share of
~ ~
Rail Cap Rail Aug Rte
59%. The demand by supply ratio of the Chennai
GR Cars Persons per Car per day
Tot Cars
Rail Aug
City is 2.55 in the current situation and it is
Car Trips
Car Inc

projected to 3.45 if the existing situation continues.

Ipt Trips
~ ~
GR Ipt Tot Ipt Persons per day per auto In the Partial Efforts scenario (Scenario
Tot Mot Trips

Ipt Inc
Ipt Trips
Tot Public Trips
II), simulation has been carried out such that
Bus Trips
Tot Priv ate Trips
Car Trips minimal efforts are undertaken by the government

TW Trips
to achieve a Modal Split of 64:36 between Public
and Private Mode. On comparison with Scenario I,
a remarkable decrease to 13% and 23% could be
III) Transport Supply Sector
observed in Scenario II with regard to the trips

Fig 7 Model Development made by cars and two wheelers. The demand by
supply ratio of the Chennai City is reduced to 1.50
Transport Supply Sector if the government steps towards increasing public
transport partially.
MRTS Cap MRTS Aug Rte
Bus Aug Rte

Bus Cap In the desirable scenario, the policy of

MRTS Aug

Government to achieve a modal split of 70:30

Bus Aug
between public and private mode. Public transport
METRO Cap
METRO Aug Rte has been augmented in a phase wise manner and
Tot Bus Supply
BRT Aug Rte
BRT Cap simultaneously the growth of two wheelers and
METRO Aug
cars have been restricted to 2% and 2.5%
Tot Rail Supply
BRT Aug Tot Pub Supply
respectively in 2026. This increase can be
Sub Cap Sub Aug Rte attributed to the introduction of Metro, Mono rail
Motorised Trips

D S Ratio
and BRT in the city and a maximum utilisation of
Sub Aug
its services. By augmenting the public transport to
its maximum the demand by supply ratio of
Chennai City is reduced to 0.82 thus indicating
sustainable transportation with better quality of
life.

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International Journal of Emerging Researches in Engineering Science and Technology, Volume 2, Issue 6, July ’15

A case study was conducted on the IT

Corridor of Chennai city. The results shows that

 In the Partial scenario, by incorporating

public transport partially, the demand by
supply ratio is reduced to 1.6 which is
20% reduction than Do-minimum
scenario.
 In the Desirable scenario, by
incorporating public transport to a
maximum, the demand by supply ratio is
reduced to 0.82 which is 35% reduction
than Do-minimum scenario.

References
1. Chennai Comprehensive Transport Study,
CMDA, Wilbursmith Associates, 2008.

2. Second Master Plan , 2026 Chennai.

3. Kavin (2009), ‘Macro Level System

Dynamics Simulation Model Building For
Sustainable Transportation Planning’, CTDT
Thesis, M.E. Urban Engineering, College of
Engineering , Guindy.

4. Keyvan Vakili (2010), ‘Strategic Assessment

of Transportation Demand Management
Policies: Tehran Case Study’, vol 2,No.4,pp.
421-645.

5. Road Transport Forecasts 2011for England,

public transport report.

6. Tony May (2011), ‘Singapore – A Case Study

on the Balanced Urban Transport’, Institute of
transport studies, Vol 21, No.5, pp.543-423.

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