Development of Flood Inundation Map for Chindwin River

Basin
Khaing Chan Myae Thu #1, Win Win Zin#2, Ei Ei Khine #3
#
Civil Engineering Department, Yangon Technological University
Yangon, Republic of the Union of Myanmar
1
chanmyaethu1270@gmail.com
2
winwinzin@gmail.com
3
mmkkhinelay87@gmail.com

Abstract-Flooding is one of the major natural disasters which affect many parts of the
world not only in developing countries but also in developed nations. Flood inundation
mapping is an essential component of flood risk management because flood inundation
maps not only provide accurate geospatial information about the extent of floods, but also,
can help decision-makers to extract other useful information to assess the risk related to
floods such as human loss, damages, and environmental degradation. Chindwin River
Basin is located in the western part of Myanmar and floods often occur seriously in
monsoon season. In order to perform river flood inundation mapping, HECHMS and HEC-
RAS were utilized as hydrological and hydraulic models, respectively. Three flood events
were applied to calibrate and validate the results. The highest depth of inundation can
seriously affect the Homalin and Mawlaik and U Yu tributary.
Keywords – Flood Inundation map, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS

I. INTRODUCTION
Floods are usually caused by extreme hydro-meteorological processes while their
evolution depends mainly on geomorphologic factors, such as soil stability and
permeability, vegetation cover, and the geometric characteristics of the river basins. River
floods are considered one of the most important natural disasters to support a transition
from traditional flood defense strategies to flood risk management approaches at the basin
scale. Floods in Myanmar is generally occurred during the southwest monsoon season
(June to October), when the westerly depression system and the low latitude tropical
cyclones system cause the macroscopic rainstorm. Floods become the most significant
natural disaster in Myanmar, (in terms of the population increased and the disruption to
socio-economic activities). One of the keys in preventing and reducing losses is to provide
reliable information to the public about the flood-risk through flood inundation maps.
Besides, future flood-prone areas are identified, flood inundation maps are also useful
in rescue and relief operations related to flooding. As floods are becoming an increasing
menace throughout the world, it has become clearly that the problem has to be assessed at
a river basin scale. This requires the evaluation of various hydrological and hydraulic
parameters. Geographic Information System (GIS) linked the hydraulic numerical models
that can provide the functionality capable of assessing and analyzing these parameters and
visualization of the results.
It is widely accepted that flood would affect the distribution of precipitation as well as
the intensities and frequencies of extreme hydrological events. The hydrological model of
HEC-HMS has designed and is based on simulation of rainfall-runoff in watersheds that
can solve different problems using a graphical interface. Hydrographs produced by
programs use directly or in conjunction with other software for the studies of water
availability, urban drainage, future urbanization impact, reservoir spillway design, flood
damage reduction, flood plain regulation, and systems operation transfers operated under
a single organization. The estimation of flood extents is not straightforward because the
extent of the inundation is dependent on the topography and it changes with time. When
bank full flow depth is reached in a flood event, the water ceases to be contained solely in
the main river channel and water spills onto adjacent flood plains. Flood prediction is a
very complex and time-consuming process [1].
In order to address this issue, hydrologic and hydrodynamic models and generated flood
inundation maps for the Chindwin River Basin are applied. Although this study is not new,
this study is one of very few to be analyzed the flood inundation area in Myanmar.
Furthermore, this study is significant because a local climate and hydrological dataset, as
well as a topographic dataset, were used to assess the possible flood inundation in the data-
scarce country of Myanmar. In this study, the HEC-RAS model was used for flood hazard
map development.

II. LOCATION OF STUDY AREA

The Chindwin River is the biggest tributary of the Irrawaddy River System and is
located in the western part of Myanmar as shown in Figure 1. It is located between 21°30'N
and 27°15'N latitudes and between 93°30'E and 97°10'E longitudes. The source of
Chindwin radiates from the Kachin plateau. The Saramali which is the second-highest
mountain in Myanmar is also located on the upper Chindwin catchment area. Since it
passes through the mountainous region, there were numerous streams, which is flowing
into the Chindwin River. The important tributaries of Chindwin River is U Yu and Myitha,
where U Yu flows into Chindwin near Homalin and Myitha near Kalewa respectively.

Figure.1 Location of Chindwin River Basin, Myanmar

The Chindwin River is naturally configured with tremendous segments of rivulets,
streamlets, and tributaries. It represents typical basins and flood plains that are prone to
annual monsoon floods in Myanmar. Chindwin River Basin is blessed with an abundance
of rainfall that contributes to an average of 670 mm to 4200 mm a year. With the exception
of extreme events, the annual average may exceed the above average. Heavy rainfall due
to cyclonic storm crossing Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts during pre-monsoon and post-
monsoon. The present condition of the Chindwin river basin is featured by its abundance
of river water, a large difference in rainfall, runoff and water level in a year, swift currents
and whirlpools in the rainy season and chronic flood damages in the rainy season. In view
of the above and severity of the damages caused by extreme events, it is therefore necessary
to establish a flood inundation map.

III. METHOLOGY
In this study, HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS were utilized as the hydrologic and
hydrodynamic models using HEC-Geo HMS and HEC-Geo RAS for linking to a GIS
environment. The procedure for developing the flood inundation maps consists of four
steps: (i) extraction of geospatial data, (ii) development of design flood hydrographs, (iii)
computation of water surface profiles and (iv)flood Inundation mapping [2].

Figure.2 Overall Methodology

Table 1 Data Source
No Data Type Description Source
Topography Digital Elevation Model SRTM https://earthexplorer.usg
1
map 30 m s.gov/
https://doi.org/10.5067/
2 Land use map MODIS Land Cover
MODIS/MCD12Q1.006
https://www.nrcs.usda.g
3 Soil map (SSURGO) Soil Map
ov/
Precipitation
4 Daily precipitation (2011-2018)
Data Department of
5 Discharge Data Daily Discharge (2011-2018) Metrology and
Water level Hydrology (DMH)
6 Daily Water Level (2011-2018)
Data

IV. HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING

The Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) is designed to simulate the rainfall-
runoff process of watershed systems. It is designed to be applicable in a wide range of
geographic areas to solve the widest possible range of problems [3]. HEC-HMS is
physically based on a conceptual semi-distributed model design to simulate the rainfall-
runoff processes in a wide range of geographic areas such as large river basin, water supply,
and flood hydrology to small urban and natural watershed runoff. The basic components
of the HEC-HMS are the basin model, meteorological model, control specifications, time-
series data and pair data.
The basin model is the physical representation of the watershed, the sub-basins, outlets,
and river segments. Computation proceeded from the upstream elements in a downstream
direction. The basin model has four basic components: Loss model, Direct runoff model,
Base flow model and Routing model.
Loss model calculates actual infiltration, which is interacted by infiltration, surface
runoff, and sub-surface processes together at the sub-basin. In this study, initial and
constant method was selected. The concept of this method is that the maximum potential
rate of precipitation loss is constant throughout an event. An initial loss is added to the
model to represent interception and depression storage.
The direct runoff method of the HEC-HMS model represents the actual surface runoff,
which is performed by a transform method contained within the sub-catchment. The SCS
Unit Hydrograph Method was used in this method.
A base flow model represents the subsurface model which is interacted with infiltration
and surface runoff process. The actual subsurface runoff is calculated by base flow method
contained within sub-catchment. In this study, recession method was adopted. Routing is a
procedure to predict the changing magnitude, speed and shape of a flood wave as a function
of time at the points along the watercourse [4]. This study adopted the lag routing method.
Two flood events of 2011 and 2013 were selected for the calibration process. In the
calibration procedure, seven parameters which include initial loss, constant rate,
impervious, base-flow initial flow rate, recession constant, base-flow threshold ratio and
SCS lag were adjusted. The calibration result of 2011 flood event is shown in Figure 3.
2015 and 2018 flood events were used for validation.

Figure.3 Observed and simulated Figure.4 Observed and simulated

hydrographs after the calibration process hydrographs after the validation process
for the 2011 flood event for the 2015 flood event

V. HYDRAULIC MODELLING
The hydraulic model is based on HEC’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), one-
dimensional model, intended for hydraulic analysis for river channels. The model is
composed of a graphical user interface, and separates hydraulic analysis component, data
storage, and management capabilities, graphic and reporting facilities. The 1 D HEC-RAS
model can be adequately calibrated using hydrometric data and can then be used to make
adequate predictions of flood extent when water surfaces are extrapolated onto high
resolution DEM [7].
HEC-RAS system includes steady flow water surface profile computations, unsteady
flow simulation, sediment transport computations and water quality analysis. HEC-RAS
application includes flood plain management studies, bridge, and culvert analysis and
design, and channel modification studies.
The hydraulic model requires as input the output hydrographs from HMS; its parameters
are representative cross-sections for each sub-basin, including left and right bank locations,
roughness coefficients (Manning’s n), and contraction and expansion coefficients.
Roughness coefficients, which represent a surface’s resistance to flow and are integral
parameters for calculating water depth, were estimated by combining land use data with
tables of Manning’s n values such as that found in [6]. As present engineering studies are
completed throughout the basin, more detailed cross-sectional data will be incorporated
into the model. Due to the regional scale of the model, channel geometry was considered
Chindwin mainstream and U Yu Tributary. In order to use the RAS model to develop
floodplain maps, it must be georeferenced to the basin.
(a) RAS Geometric Data Creation
In ArcGIS, the DEM was converted into a TIN format file by using the 3D analyst
toolbox. RAS geometric data such as stream centerlines, bank lines, flow path lines, and
XS cut lines were created using the TIN as base layer data in HEC-GeoRAS and delineated
by enabling Editor tool in ArcGIS. River reach name and flow pathname were also
assigned. Finally, stream centerline attributes and XS cut line attributes were also
generated. Created Geometric data was exported as RAS data to be used in HEC-RAS for
modelling.
(b) Unsteady flow analysis
Unsteady flow analysis was done in HEC-RAS software based on the open flow
channel. Boundary conditions at Hkamti and Mawlaik station, the upstream end of the river
system and U Yu, tributary were assigned to define flow hydrograph. The Mawlaik station,
at the downstream end of the river system was assigned to define the normal depth and
assume the friction slope of downstream. The simulated flow data with time series of flood
events were used for calibrating the model.
(c) Inundation Mapping
After steady flow analysis is being done in HEC-RAS, GIS data was exported and
imported into ArcGIS for inundation analysis using RAS Mapping. Imported GIS data need
to be converted from SDF format into XML format [8]. The calibration process was
undertaken 2011 flood event. The model was validated with the two different flood events
of 2015 and 2018.

Figure.5 Simulated flood inundation Figure.6 Simulated flood inundation depth

depth and area for the 2011 flood event and area for the 2015 flood event

VI. RESULTS AND DISSUSIONS

The HEC-HMS model was calibrated for different flood events approach in order to
determine the best fit between the model and observation. The model couldn't simulate
well continuous flow of a one-year period for the Chindwin river catchment. HEC-HMS
has an optimization feature that can be used to match the simulated flow with observed
flow. The optimization feature was used to carry out the calibration process. Once the
calibration was completed with two selected flood events, then the calibrated final
parameters were taken as input in the selected two storms flood events of (2015 and 2018)
for the model validation.
The validated result of 2015 flood event is shown in Figure 4. The coefficient of
determination (R2) and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and coefficient of correlation (R)
values are obtained as 0.794, 0.89 and 0.403 respectively for the 2015 flood event. The
coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and coefficient of
correlation (R) values are obtained as 0.6, 0.76 and 0.51 respectively for the 2018 flood
event. These results are close and good correlation between the observed and simulated
flow.
In HEC-RAS model, the simulated flood inundation maps for the 2011 flood event was
validated by comparing the actual flood area derived by ALOS PALSAR images.
Validation of results for 2015 and 2018 flood events were undertaken by comparing the
model output with sentineal-1 image. Simulated flood inundation depth and area for
2011and 2015 flood events are shown in Figures 5 and 6. Comparison of the predicted
flood inundation area for 2011, 2015 and 2018 flood events are shown in Table 2.
Table 2 Comparison of Flood Inundation Area of Simulated Results and Satellite Images
Simulated
Estimated Over Under
by HEC- Over-lapped
by Satellite Estimated Estimated
RAS Area
Image by model by model
Model
Inundation Area
(km2) 1613.7 1393.2 1155.2 401.3 57.3
(2011)
Percentage (%)
71.6 24.9 3.5
(2011)
Inundation Area
(km2) 1701.0 1380.4 1275.0 388.6 37.4
(2015)
Percentage (%)
75.0 22.8 2.2
(2015)
Inundation Area
(km2) 1097.0 892.7 842.3 232.8 21.9
(2018)
Percentage (%)
76.8 21.2 2.0
(2018)

VII. CONCLUSIONS
The results of HEC-HMS model indicate the close and good correlation between
simulated and observed flow in this study area. Despite difficulties, limitations, and
uncertainties associated with obtaining observations and measured parameters, this study
ended-up with optimistic results for the simulation of the rainfall-runoff process in the
Chindwin river basin.
In HEC-RAS model, flood inundation map of the Chindwin river basin was developed
and the result was validated by comparing with ALOS PALSAR image from the 2011
flood event. The analysis was undertaken to demonstrate that the model is currently at the
limit of predictive ability for flood inundation, but the results of calibration and validation
indicated acceptable results in terms of simulating flood events.
The process of creating flood inundation maps is affected by uncertainties in data,
modeling approaches, parameters, and geo-processing tools. The outcome of the study
including the surrounding uncertainties in flood inundation mapping could be a powerful
decision-making computational tool that would help in planning and prioritizing
environmental actions in a pre-disaster stage. Such a tool would be widely applicable by
agencies and decision-makers and would efficiently support planning and management of
operations that are critical for humans, reservoirs, river channels, water conveyance
systems, and environmental sustainability.
From a disaster reduction viewpoint, the information derived from this study can
contribute to assess the possibility of flood damage for the local population and for those
locations where data is limited, such as in Myanmar. Such an analysis would also be helpful
in formulating and directing post-event relief efforts.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author is deeply grateful to Dr. Nyan Myint Kyaw, Professor, and Head of
Department of Civil Engineering of Yangon Technological University, for his guidance.
The author would like to express her sincere thanks to her supervisor Dr. Win Win Zin,
Professor of Department of Civil Engineering of Yangon Technological University, for her
great supervision, beneficial suggestions, genuine care and encouragement throughout the
progression of this paper. The author’s special thanks go to her co-supervisor Dr. Ei Ei
Khine, Assistant Lecturer of Department of Civil Engineering of Yangon Technological
University, for her support and invaluable comments. The author wishes to thank all
persons who have helped towards the successful completion of this paper.

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