LatinFocus Consensus Forecast - April 2020 PDF

LATINFOCUS
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Latin America • April 2020
SUMMARY 2
NEWS IN FOCUS 7
COVID-19 TRACKER 21
CALENDAR 22
ARGENTINA 23
BRAZIL 40
CHILE 58
COLOMBIA 75
MEXICO 91
PERU 108
VENEZUELA 123
OTHER COUNTRIES 131
BOLIVIA 131
ECUADOR 134
PARAGUAY 141
URUGUAY 144
NOTES 151
Contributors
PUBLICATION DATE 21 April 2020 JAVIER COLATO
FORECASTS COLLECTED 14 April - 19 April 2020 LATIN AMERICA ECONOMIST
INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 19 April 2020
ARNE POHLMAN THOMAS FENGE RICARD TORNÉ
NEXT EDITION 19 May 2020 Chief Economist Head of Data Solutions Head of Data Analysis
ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN

Lead Economist Editor Data Scientist
NICOLAS J. AGUILAR LINDSEY ICE JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Economist Economist Data Analyst
HANNA ANDERSSON JAN LAMMERSEN FREDERICO T. ABREU
Economist Economist Junior Data Analyst
MASSIMO BASSETTI OLIVER REYNOLDS LAURA AZLOR
STEVEN BURKE ALMANAS STANAPEDIS DAVID CATALÁN
OLGA COSCODAN STEPHEN VOGADO MOHAMMED ESSABAOUNI
EDWARD GARDNER STÉPHANIE HOBEICHE
Economist Junior Data Analyst
MAR LOBATO
Junior Data Analyst
YULIANNA VALENCIA
Junior Data Analyst
SARA VALVERDE
Junior Data Analyst
BENCE VÁRADI
Junior Data Scientist
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary Summary April 2020
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World 3.4 3.2 2.6 0.0 3.9 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6
United States 2.4 2.9 2.3 -1.8 3.1 2.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.8
Euro Area 2.7 1.9 1.2 -4.1 3.6 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.6 1.2
China 6.9 6.7 6.1 3.8 6.7 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.3 2.3
Japan 2.2 0.3 0.7 -2.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.4
Latin America 1.9 1.6 0.8 -3.5 3.1 6.4 8.2 7.7 6.8 6.4
Centam & Caribbean 2.5 2.3 2.6 -2.1 3.2 3.3 1.8 2.4 2.0 2.9
Chile 1.2 3.9 1.1 -2.5 3.5 2.3 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.8
Mexico 2.1 2.1 -0.1 -5.1 2.4 6.8 4.8 2.8 3.5 3.4
Mercosur 1.7 0.5 0.5 -3.6 3.2 8.1 13.2 13.5 11.7 10.4
Argentina 2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -5.5 3.3 24.8 47.6 53.8 42.9 36.4
Brazil 1.3 1.3 1.1 -3.2 3.1 2.9 3.7 4.3 2.9 3.6
Paraguay 5.0 3.4 0.0 -1.0 4.7 4.5 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.6
Uruguay 2.6 1.6 0.2 -2.4 3.5 6.6 8.0 8.8 9.4 7.6
Venezuela -15.7 -19.6 -30.6 -17.6 -1.2 863 130,060 9,585 4,030 2,512
Andean Com. 2.0 2.9 2.4 -2.2 3.6 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.5
Bolivia 4.2 4.2 2.2 -2.0 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.5 2.4 2.8
Colombia 1.4 2.5 3.3 -1.1 3.5 4.1 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.2
Ecuador 2.4 1.3 0.1 -5.2 2.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.9
Peru 2.5 4.0 2.2 -2.4 4.7 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.5 2.1
Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

9 9
2018 2019 2020 2021

2018 2019 2020 2021
6
6
3
0
3
-3
-6 0
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World -2.7 -2.6 -3.1 -4.9 -4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -3.4 -3.8 -4.6 -7.6 -7.4 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3
Euro Area -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 -4.1 -2.5 3.1 3.1 2.7 2.9 2.8
China -3.7 -4.1 -4.9 -5.8 -5.1 1.6 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.5
Japan -3.1 -3.6 -2.8 -4.2 -4.1 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.2
Latin America -4.9 -4.4 -3.7 -6.8 -4.8 -1.6 -2.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
Centam & Caribbean -3.1 -2.9 -3.1 -4.8 -3.8 0.4 -0.1 0.8 0.0 0.3
Chile -2.8 -1.7 -2.8 -7.9 -5.6 -2.3 -3.6 -3.9 -2.0 -2.0
Mexico -1.1 -2.1 -1.6 -4.2 -3.6 -1.8 -1.9 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9
Mercosur -7.2 -6.4 -5.4 -9.0 -5.8 -1.6 -2.7 -2.2 -2.0 -2.1
Argentina -5.9 -5.0 -3.8 -5.6 -4.5 -4.8 -5.0 -0.8 0.5 0.0
Brazil -7.8 -7.1 -5.9 -10.3 -6.3 -0.7 -2.2 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8
Paraguay -1.1 -1.3 -2.8 -4.0 -2.8 3.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6
Uruguay -3.5 -2.9 -3.3 -5.0 -3.7 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.2
Venezuela -18.2 -20.7 -22.0 -23.3 -17.5 6.1 8.7 8.0 3.2 4.8
Andean Com. -3.8 -2.8 -2.4 -5.3 -3.6 -2.2 -2.8 -2.7 -3.3 -2.7
Bolivia -7.8 -8.1 -7.2 -8.7 -7.6 -4.9 -4.5 -3.3 -5.0 -4.5
Colombia -3.6 -3.1 -2.5 -4.1 -3.4 -3.3 -3.9 -4.3 -4.6 -4.1
Ecuador -4.5 -1.2 -2.0 -4.6 -2.8 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.3 -0.4
Peru -3.0 -2.3 -1.6 -6.5 -3.4 -1.3 -1.7 -1.5 -1.8 -1.7
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

0 6
2018 2019 2020 2021
-2
3
-4
0
-6
2018 2019 2020 2021
-8 -3
World United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America United States Euro Area China Japan Latin America
Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

FOCUSECONOMICS Summary April 2020
Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

-6 -3 0 3 6 -6 -4 -2 0 2
LATIN AMERICA | 2020: -3.5%
The fast-spreading Covid-19 pandemic is set to push the region 2018 Jan-20
into its deepest recession in modern history this year. The outlook
2019 Feb-20
is grim given the virus-induced collapse in exports; downturn
in primary commodity prices; disruption to global value chains; 2020 Mar-20
pullback in tourism; turbulence in financial markets; blow to 2021 Apr-20

remittances; and strain to public healthcare systems.
ARGENTINA | 2020: -5.5%

2018
The coronavirus outbreak will derail Argentina’s already troubled Jan-20
economy, hammering domestic and external demand and drying 2019 Feb-20
up external financing sources. Moreover, it will hit the country’s
precarious fiscal position, increasing the use of deficit monetary 2020 Mar-20
financing. Risks of government debt default and associated 2021 Apr-20

financial turmoil further cloud the outlook.
BRAZIL | 2020: -3.2%

2018 Jan-20
The economy is now expected to contract this year as containment
measures stifle consumer spending, businesses lay off workers 2019 Feb-20
and delay investment and frail global trade depresses exports.
Fiscal and monetary stimulus should avert a deeper economic 2020 Mar-20
collapse, however. The outlook hinges on the extent of the 2021 Apr-20
economic shock and also the pace of recovery.
CHILE | 2020: -2.5%

Economic activity is set to contract this year, ravaged by Covid-19. 2018 Jan-20
The restrictions adopted by the government will take a heavy toll 2019 Feb-20
on domestic activity, while a stifled global economy should result
in lower demand for Chilean exports. Moreover, the uncertainties 2020 Mar-20
surrounding the upcoming constitutional process may further 2021 Apr-20

restrain investment ahead.
COLOMBIA | 2020: -1.1%

2018 Jan-20
The economy is expected to contract this year as isolation
measures due to the Covid-19 pandemic are set to hamper 2019 Feb-20
private consumption and fixed investment. Meanwhile, low global
oil prices will cripple export revenues, about 30% of which comes 2020 Mar-20
from oil sales. However, fiscal stimulus and liquidity boosting 2021 Apr-20
measures should somewhat cushion the blow.
MEXICO | 2020: -5.1%

2018 Jan-20
The Covid-19 crisis will prompt a much sharper economic downturn
than 2019 this year. Social distancing will hit private consumption 2019 Feb-20
hard; investment is poised to suffer amid deteriorated sentiment;
and exports look set to sink on muted global demand. The collapse 2020 Mar-20
of global oil prices and spillovers from the halt in activity in the 2021 Apr-20
U.S. pose additional risks ahead.
PERU | 2020: -2.4%

2018 Jan-20
Peru’s outlook was slashed this month, as private consumption,
fixed investment and exports are all now seen contracting this 2019 Feb-20
year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Disruptions to activity will
dent both household spending and fixed investment amid the 2020 Mar-20
uncertain environment, while exports are also expected to plunge 2021 Apr-20
amid shriveled demand from abroad, low metals prices and halted
tourism.
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

-3.0 -1.5 0.0 1.5 3.0
LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 6.8% 0 15 30 45 60
Regional inflation slid to 7.5% in March (February: 8.0%) largely 2018 Jan-20
due to lower energy prices. Lackluster activity has kept price
2019 Feb-20
pressures broadly in check recently in most countries. The
exceptions remain Argentina and Venezuela, though inflation 2020 Mar-20
eased again in the former in March. Regional inflation is seen 2021 Apr-20
receding somewhat ahead, weighed on by muted demand.
ARGENTINA | 2020: 42.9%

2018 Jan-20
Inflation declined in March, coming in at 48.4% (February: 50.3%),
although the month-on-month increase in consumer prices was 2019 Feb-20
sharper than in February. This year, inflation is poised to remain
high due to a rapid expansion of the monetary base and strong FX 2020 Mar-20
pressures, with the return to monetary financing of fiscal deficits 2021 Apr-20
posing further upside risks.
BRAZIL | 2020: 2.9%

Inflation eased to 3.3% in March from 4.0% in February, falling 2018 Jan-20
below the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% for the end of 2020. 2019 Feb-20
Inflation should be lower this year compared to last as declining
economic activity and labor market slack offset upside pressure 2020 Mar-20
from looser monetary conditions and a weak real. 2021 Apr-20
CHILE | 2020: 3.1%

Inflation moderated to 3.7% in March, from 3.9% in February 2018 Jan-20
which had marked an over three-and-a-half year high. Weak 2019 Feb-20
demand and lower fuel prices are largely outweighing the effects of
stronger pass-through inflation and cheaper financing conditions. 2020 Mar-20
Going forward, price pressures are likely to moderate further. 2021 Apr-20
COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.2%

2018 Jan-20
Inflation inched up to 3.9% in March, from 3.7% in February, thus
moving further way from the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target 2019 Feb-20
band of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. While inflation
is expected to slow somewhat going forward amid feeble demand, 2020 Mar-20
risks are tilted to the upside due to currency weakness. 2021 Apr-20
MEXICO | 2020: 3.5%

2018 Jan-20
Inflation slid to 3.2% in March from 3.7% in February, thus moving
towards the midpoint of Banxico’s target range of 2.0%–4.0%. 2019 Feb-20
Core inflation, meanwhile, has proved sticky, hovering at 3.5%–
4.0% for over two years now. Inflation is seen remaining contained 2020 Mar-20
ahead on lower energy prices and subdued aggregate demand. 2021 Apr-20
Currency weakness presents an upward risk, however.
PERU | 2020: 1.5%

Inflation inched down to 1.8% in March from 1.9% in February, 2018 Jan-20
thus falling further below the midpoint of Central Bank’s target 2019 Feb-20
range of 2.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. Price pressures
should remain modest ahead, restrained by lower energy prices 2020 Mar-20
and weak domestic demand. 2021 Apr-20
Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: 6.35% 0 15 30 45 60 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 1.5
The central banks of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru Jan-20
2018
slashed their policy rates recently, some more aggressively than
Feb-20
expected, amid rapidly deteriorating conditions due to Covid-19. In 2019
addition, monetary authorities across the region deployed various 2020 Mar-20
liquidity measures to prop up banking systems. Central bankers

Apr-20
2021
overall are seen further easing policy ahead.
ARGENTINA | 2020: 33.30%

Jan-20
In two subsequent decisions on 19 and 26 March, the Central 2018
Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adopted measures to improve the Feb-20

2019
payment chain and to boost credit to SMEs, as part of efforts to
mitigate the economic impact of Covid-19 lockdown measures. 2020 Mar-20
Going forward, the BCRA is seen lowering rates further in a bid to Apr-20
2021
support the economy.
BRAZIL | 2020: 3.11%

The Central Bank cut the SELIC rate to 3.75% from 4.25% at its 2018 Jan-20
17–18 March meeting to cushion the economy from deteriorating 2019 Feb-20
financial conditions and a bleaker outlook. A majority of panelists
now see the Bank unwinding its policy further this year. The 2020 Mar-20
severity of the domestic outbreak and a faltering global economy 2021 Apr-20
could prompt COPOM to slash rates at its 5–6 May meeting.
CHILE | 2020: 0.49%

At its monetary policy meeting on 31 March, the Central Bank 2018 Jan-20
slashed the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 0.50%, 2019 Feb-20
its lowest point since 2009, reflecting the need to minimize the
economic challenges posed by the Covid-19. The decision was 2020 Mar-20
accompanied by additional liquidity measures. The rate is largely 2021 Apr-20

expected to remain unchanged for the rest of the year.
COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.04%

In an unscheduled meeting on 14 April, the Central Bank cut 2018 Jan-20
capital requirements for banks by USD 2.3 billion to stimulate the 2019 Feb-20
provision of credit in the economy. At its last scheduled meeting on
27 March, the Central Bank slashed the benchmark interest rate 2020 Mar-20
by 50 basis points to 3.75%. The next monetary policy meeting is 2021 Apr-20
set for 30 April.
MEXICO | 2020: 5.03%

2018 Jan-20
In a surprise out-of-cycle meeting on 20 March, Banxico cut
the target rate by 50 basis points to 6.50%, marking the sixth 2019 Feb-20
consecutive cut and the largest since June 2014. Banxico also
announced a series of measures to free up liquidity in the banking 2020 Mar-20
system. All of our panelists see Banxico further easing its stance 2021 Apr-20
this year.
PERU | 2020: 0.67%

2018 Jan-20
At an extraordinary meeting on 9 April, the Central Bank of Peru
decided to slash the policy rate by a whole percentage point to 2019 Feb-20
a record low of 0.25%. The move is designed to help shield the
economy from the fallout of Covid-19, and the Bank left open the 2020 Mar-20
possibility of further accommodative action if needed ahead. 2021 Apr-20
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. For rate details please see country page.
Change in forecast refers to 2020.

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

LATIN AMERICA | 2020: -14.6% -60 -40 -20 0 20 -12 -6 0 6 12
Most of the region’s currencies continued to lose ground against
2018 Jan-20
the U.S. dollar recently on sustained investor worries over the
extent of the economic impact from Covid-19, with the Brazilian 2019 Feb-20
real particularly hard hit. Colombia’s peso, Peru’s sol and 2020 Mar-20
Uruguay’s peso, however, appreciated somewhat. Currencies are
2021 Apr-20
seen weakening this year—and more sharply than in 2019.
ARGENTINA | 2020: -29.7%

2018 Jan-20
On 17 April, the ARS traded at 65.79 per USD, a 3.8%
depreciation from the same day in March. Coronavirus-associated 2019 Feb-20
recessions fears, strong safe-haven demand for dollars and the
debt restructuring proposal put downside pressures on the peso. 2020 Mar-20
Meanwhile, the parallel-market dollar was priced at a significantly 2021 Apr-20

higher rate of around 101.00 ARS per USD.
BRAZIL | 2020: -16.1%

The real plunged to a new record low of 5.35 per USD on 3 April 2018 Jan-20
before recovering slightly and trading at 5.24 per USD on 17 April, 2019 Feb-20
which marked a 4.3% month-on-month depreciation. Capital
outflows, dismal economic data, and shaky commodity markets 2020 Mar-20
weighed on the currency. This year, the real is projected to remain 2021 Apr-20
very weak.
CHILE | 2020: -8.4%

The peso lost some further ground against the U.S. dollar in the 2018 Jan-20
past month, as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to hamper 2019 Feb-20

commodity-linked currencies. On 17 April, the CLP traded at 853
per USD, a 0.6% depreciation from the same day last month. Going 2020 Mar-20
forward, most analysts see the peso recovering from current lows 2021 Apr-20
thanks to a pick-up in Chinese demand for raw materials.
COLOMBIA | 2020: -15.6%

The Colombian peso recovered somewhat against the U.S. dollar 2018 Jan-20
in recent weeks as market sentiment turned less negative amid 2019 Feb-20
positive trade data from China. On 17 April, the COP ended the
day at 3,936 per USD, a 1.6% month-on-month appreciation. The 2020 Mar-20
peso is seen losing ground this year from 2019 as the country’s 2021 Apr-20
external position remains fragile.
MEXICO | 2020: -15.8%

2018 Jan-20
The peso continued to lose ground against the U.S. dollar in
recent weeks, partly due to the fiscal response to the coronavirus 2019 Feb-20
fallout failing to boost confidence. On 17 April, the MXN traded
at 23.71 per USD, depreciating 3.2% month-on-month. The peso 2020 Mar-20
is expected to regain some of its losses but remains exposed to 2021 Apr-20
market volatility and risk-off sentiment.
PERU | 2020: -4.3%

2018 Jan-20
The sol regained some lost ground in recent weeks supported
by optimism over the government’s plan to combat Covid-19 2019 Feb-20
contagion and interventions by the Central Bank. On 17 April, the
PEN ended the day at 3.41 per USD, appreciating 4.0% from the 2020 Mar-20
same day in March. Risk-averse sentiment will likely weigh on the 2021 Apr-20
sol ahead in light of global economic uncertainty.
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

number means currency is gaining value against USD. Change in forecast refers to 2020.

News in Focus
News in Focus
Argentina: Government unveils debt restructuring proposal BRAZIL | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
amid coronavirus crisis
5.5
Following the government’s decision in early April to unilaterally
postpone payments on USD 10 billion of foreign currency debt 5.0
governed by local law, on 17 April the government officially

launched a proposal to restructure around USD 66 billion of 4.5
foreign debt. A hard-fought renegotiation process is expected

4.0
before the offer expires in 20 days.
3.5
Brazil: Depreciation pressures worsen in April
The Brazilian real continued to plunge in April, hitting a fresh low 3.0
Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
of BRL 5.35 per USD on 3 April. On 17 April, the real traded at
BRL 5.24 per USD, which marked a 4.3% depreciation month-on- Note: Daily spot of real (BRL) against U.S. dollar (USD).
Source: Refinitiv.
month, weighed on by investors steering toward safer assets in
the wake of the global coronavirus pandemic.
Chile: Consumer sentiment plummets to an all-time low in

March as Covid-19 bites
The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index fell to 27.8 points in
March, from 32.7 points in February, marking the lowest print in MEXICO | Manufacturing Index
the survey’s history. March’s print reflected an across-the-board 62
deterioration in all five subcomponents of the index. IMEF Manufacturing PMI

IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
U.S. Manufacturing Index
Colombia: Central Bank slashes rates for first time since 56
April 2018
BanRep cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to
50
3.75% at its 27 March meeting. The decision was unanimous,
broadly in line with market expectations and marked the first cut
in nearly two years. The deteriorating economic scenario due to
44
the Covid-19 pandemic and the oil price crash drove the decision. Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI) for the U.S., seasonally-
Ecuador: Government announces relief measures; external adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico and IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI.
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing
debt challenges mount sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Mexican Institute of
Authorities recently presented several economic measures to Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and
cushion the fallout from the oil price and Covid-19 shocks. Public IHS Markit.
finances were already tight, however, prompting authorities to ask

creditors to defer interest payments on external bonds until mid-
August. President Lenin Moreno later announced the government
intended to restructure the external debt.
Mexico: Manufacturing PMIs slide on coronavirus outbreak

The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing Purchasing Managers’
Index (PMI) produced by the Mexican Institute of Financial PERU | Monetary Policy Rate | in %
Executives (IMEF) slid to 45.0 in March from 48.0 in February, its 5.0
lowest reading since April 2017. Plummeting production and new

4.0
orders, coupled with a marked decline in employment, drove the
fall. 3.0
Peru: Central Bank slashes policy rate to 0.25% amid Covid-19 2.0
pandemic
1.0
The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to chop the policy
interest rate by 100 basis points at an extraordinary meeting on 0.0
9 April, bringing the rate to 0.25%, an all-time low. The cut was Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
designed to help shield the economy from the fallout of Covid-19, Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP).
which was more aggressive than anticipated by the market.

News in Focus: Fiscal Responses

Argentina: Government approves underwhelming stimulus
package against coronavirus blow
Amid a worsening economic environment due to the outbreak of
the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures,
the government adopted a set of measures in March to cushion the
blow. The stimulus package is relatively limited in scope, however,
owing to the country’s already challenging fiscal and debt position.
Brazil: Authorities announce war budget to combat

coronavirus fallout
In early April, the government announced it would create a “war
budget” to tackle the economic fallout from the coronavirus
pandemic. Investors and credit ratings agencies will be closely
monitoring the impact on the public accounts.
Chile: Government unveils ambitious stimulus to contain the

impact of Covid-19
On 19 March and 8 April, the government announced measures to
combat the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis totaling USD
16.8 billion. Although the expenses will be partly covered through
BRAZIL | Public Debt & Fiscal Balance | in % of GDP
budget reallocations, the government estimates the fiscal deficit
81 -5
will near 8.0% of GDP this year. Gross Public Debt (left scale)
Fiscal Balance (right scale)
Colombia: Authorities roll out measures to mitigate economic

78 -6
impact from Covid-19
Amounting to approximately 2.5% of GDP, the measures have % %
been aimed at the most vulnerable groups of the population as 75 -7

well as to SMEs through increased monetary support. However,
increased spending, coupled with low oil prices, is likely to widen
the fiscal deficit while pressuring revenues. 72 -8
Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
Mexico: Government presents timid response against Note: Gross public debt and fiscal balance in % of GDP.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
Covid-19, clouding economic and credit rating outlook
The policies unveiled on 5 April to placate the coronavirus’ blow
fell well short of expectations as they were devoid of considerable
spending. This risks a deeper economic downturn and faster
credit rating downgrades, with all three major agencies already
lowering their ratings on Pemex and the sovereign recently.
Peru: Government unveils region’s largest stimulus package

to combat coronavirus crisis
The government announced a massive stimulus package worth
up to 12% of GDP at the end of March. Aggressive measures
by both fiscal and monetary authorities should help the economy
weather the storm relatively well compared to other emerging
market peers.
Venezuela: Economic depression set to deepen despite

government measures to fight Covid-19
On 17 March, a nationwide quarantine was declared by the
government to fight the Covid-19 health crisis. The economic
depression will likely deepen this year while the risk of social
disorder is elevated, as a prolonged quarantine would exacerbate
the dire economic scenario at a time when the U.S. is escalating
its pressure on the country.

Population, millions Population, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Latin America
Latin America 595.7 601.5 607.2 612.8 618.2 623.5 628.8 Mercosur
Chile 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.1
Brazil
Mexico 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.2 129.4 130.5 131.5
Mercosur 263.6 265.7 267.7 269.7 271.6 273.5 275.3 Mexico
Argentina 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.6 Andean Com.
Brazil 208.5 210.0 211.4 212.7 214.0 215.3 216.5 Colombia
Paraguay 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7
Argentina
Uruguay 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
Venezuela 28.9 27.5 25.9 24.8 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 110.4 111.7 112.9 114.2 115.4 116.6 117.8 Venezuela
Bolivia 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 Chile
Colombia 49.8 50.4 50.9 51.4 51.9 52.3 52.8
Ecuador
Ecuador 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5
Bolivia
Peru 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.1 33.5 33.8 34.1
Paraguay
Uruguay
625
0 250 500 750
2018 2019 2020 2021
500
Notes and sources
Note: Population, millions. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts

375 exclude Venezuela.
Sources: The International Monetary Fund (IMF).
250
Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela,

FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the
125 long-term as of the August 2018 edition of LatinFocus. We hope
to resume providing these forecasts once reliable data becomes
available. Accordingly, Venezuela has been removed from the
Latin America and Mercosur regional aggregates.
0
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina
GDP, USD billions GDP, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Latin America
Latin America 5,217 5,092 4,422 4,827 5,201 5,536 5,846
Mercosur
Chile 298 282 242 267 294 318 343
Brazil
Mexico 1,221 1,259 1,062 1,142 1,230 1,299 1,373
Mercosur 2,524 2,370 2,004 2,236 2,427 2,597 2,749 Mexico
Argentina 540 436 429 457 503 559 594 Andean Com.
Brazil 1,885 1,839 1,489 1,689 1,828 1,935 2,044 Argentina
Paraguay 40.4 38.2 37.3 39.4 41.6 43.8 46.2
Colombia
Uruguay 58.5 56.1 48.6 50.5 54.8 59.3 64.4
Venezuela 98.4 70.4 60.3 58.3 - - - Chile
Andean Com. 707 701 641 690 735 780 825 Peru
Bolivia 40.3 40.9 40.7 42.7 44.0 44.7 45.6 Ecuador
Colombia 333 324 278 302 331 357 382 Venezuela
Ecuador 108 107 102 104 108 112 117
Uruguay
Peru 225 229 220 240 252 266 281
Bolivia
Paraguay
6,000
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

4,000
Note: GDP in current USD billions. Latin America and Mercosur
forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
2,000
0

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Paraguay
Latin America 1.6 0.8 -3.5 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 Colombia
Chile 3.9 1.1 -2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3
Bolivia
Mexico 2.1 -0.1 -5.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Mercosur 0.5 0.5 -3.6 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.5 Andean Com.
Argentina -2.5 -2.2 -5.5 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.3 Peru
Brazil 1.3 1.1 -3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5 Uruguay
Paraguay 3.4 0.0 -1.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.4
Chile
Uruguay 1.6 0.2 -2.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2
Venezuela Brazil
-19.6 -30.6 -17.6 -1.2 - - -
Andean Com. 2.9 2.4 -2.2 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 Latin America
Bolivia 4.2 2.2 -2.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 Mercosur
Colombia 2.5 3.3 -1.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 Mexico
Ecuador 1.3 0.1 -5.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
Ecuador
Peru 4.0 2.2 -2.4 4.7 4.1 3.8 3.5
Argentina
Venezuela -17.6
6
-6 -4 -2 0
2018 2019 2020 2021
3 Notes and sources
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. Latin

America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
0
-3
-6
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Uruguay
Latin America 8,758 8,465 7,282 7,878 8,413 8,878 9,297
Chile
Chile 15,915 14,766 12,419 13,575 14,850 15,954 17,068
Mexico 9,791 10,000 8,356 8,907 9,509 9,956 10,437 Argentina
Mercosur 9,574 8,919 7,485 8,290 8,935 9,495 9,985 Mexico
Argentina 12,123 9,679 9,412 9,926 10,798 11,876 12,484 Mercosur
Brazil 9,040 8,760 7,045 7,938 8,539 8,986 9,443
Latin America
Paraguay 5,727 5,335 5,146 5,365 5,583 5,801 6,030
Uruguay 16,684 15,938 13,772 14,240 15,415 16,633 17,994 Brazil
Venezuela 3,411 2,559 2,325 2,355 - - - Peru
Andean Com. 6,400 6,275 5,671 6,040 6,365 6,684 7,000 Ecuador
Bolivia 3,540 3,541 3,471 3,593 3,646 3,648 3,671
Andean Com.
Colombia 6,689 6,421 5,463 5,879 6,380 6,814 7,227
Ecuador 6,319 6,222 5,807 5,878 5,991 6,134 6,309 Colombia
Peru 7,007 7,049 6,707 7,254 7,525 7,883 8,239 Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
13,000
0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

10,000
Note: GDP per capita in current USD. Latin America and Mercosur
7,000
4,000
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 10

Consumption, annual variation in % Consumption Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Bolivia
Latin America 2.0 1.2 -3.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.9 Paraguay
Chile 3.7 1.1 -3.4 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1
Colombia
Mexico 2.3 0.6 -5.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0
Peru
Mercosur 1.1 0.3 -3.8 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.6
Argentina -2.4 -6.4 -6.3 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.6 Andean Com.
Brazil 2.1 1.8 -3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6 Uruguay
Paraguay 4.3 1.3 -0.6 5.7 5.2 4.9 4.7 Brazil
Uruguay 1.5 0.5 -2.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.4
Chile
Venezuela -20.1 -31.4 -16.1 -1.7 - - -
Bolivia 4.3 3.7 0.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 Mercosur
Colombia 3.0 4.6 -1.3 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 Mexico
Ecuador 2.1 1.5 -5.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0
Ecuador
Peru 3.8 3.0 -2.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 3.4
Argentina
Venezuela -16.1
4 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
Notes and sources

0
Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Latin America
and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-4
2018 2019 2020 2021
-8
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Colombia
Latin America 3.0 -1.1 -7.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5
Paraguay
Chile 4.8 4.2 -7.5 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.6
Uruguay
Mexico 0.9 -4.9 -9.0 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8
Mercosur 1.8 -1.3 -9.1 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.1 Andean Com.
Argentina -5.7 -15.9 -17.7 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0 Peru
Brazil 3.9 2.2 -7.0 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 Bolivia
Paraguay 6.9 -6.6 -3.2 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.9
Brazil
Uruguay -2.7 1.4 -3.9 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.2
Chile
Venezuela -37.5 -36.1 -22.8 -4.5 - - -
Bolivia 3.2 -3.5 -6.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 Ecuador
Colombia 1.6 4.6 -2.7 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0 Mexico
Ecuador 2.0 -3.4 -7.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3
Mercosur
Peru 5.0 2.7 -5.1 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.3
Argentina
Venezuela -22.8
6
-20 -15 -10 -5 0
0 Notes and sources
Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Latin America

and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-6
-12
2018 2019 2020 2021
-18

Industrial Production, annual variation in % Industrial Production Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Chile
Latin America 0.9 -1.0 -4.5 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.7
Chile 2.8 0.8 -2.0 2.2 - - - Brazil
Mexico 0.5 -1.8 -5.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
Latin America
Mercosur -0.1 -2.1 -4.7 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.6
Argentina -5.0 -6.4 -6.3 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 Mercosur
Brazil 1.0 -1.1 -4.2 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.5
Uruguay Colombia
11.5 -1.5 -6.1 3.5 4.2 4.4 4.6
Andean Com. 3.8 0.2 -6.4 5.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 Mexico
Colombia 3.8 1.5 -5.0 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3
Ecuador -1.0 0.1 -8.1 6.2 4.0 3.0 - Uruguay
Peru 6.2 -1.7 -7.4 6.0 3.9 3.6 3.3 Argentina
Andean Com.
Peru
Ecuador
6
-9 -6 -3 0
3
Notes and sources
Note: Industrial production, real annual variation in %. Data for Chile

0 and Ecuador refers to manufacturing. Latin America and Mercosur
Sources: National statistical institutes.
-3
-6
2018 2019 2020 2021
-9
Retail Sales, annual variation in % Retail Sales Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Latin America 2.5 2.4 -3.2 3.5 3.1 2.9 - Colombia
Chile 4.4 1.6 -2.9 2.3 3.3 3.5 -
Mexico 1.5 2.0 -6.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8
Brazil 2.3 1.9 -1.9 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 Brazil
Colombia 5.4 8.1 1.9 5.7 - - -
Peru 2.6 3.0 -4.3 4.9 - - -
Chile
Latin America
9.0 Peru
2018 2019 2020 2021

Mexico
4.5
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
0.0 Notes and sources
Note: Retail sales, real annual variation in %. Data for Peru refers to
commerce sector.
-4.5
-9.0
Latin America Brazil Mexico Colombia Chile Peru

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuela 24.0
Latin America 8.4 8.4 10.3 9.6 9.0 8.5 8.1
Brazil
Chile 6.9 7.0 9.2 8.5 7.9 7.4 7.0
Mexico 3.3 3.5 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.1 3.9 Colombia
Mercosur 11.4 11.3 12.9 12.1 11.5 10.9 10.5 Mercosur
Argentina 9.2 9.8 12.3 11.4 10.4 9.6 8.8
Argentina
Brazil 12.3 11.9 13.4 12.6 12.0 11.5 11.0
Paraguay 5.6 5.7 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.4 - Andean Com.
Uruguay 8.4 8.9 10.1 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.2 Latin America
Venezuela 6.9 22.4 24.0 24.9 - - -
Uruguay
Andean Com. 7.7 8.1 10.5 9.6 8.9 8.4 7.9
Colombia 9.7 10.5 13.0 11.9 11.1 10.5 9.8 Chile
Ecuador 3.7 3.8 8.9 8.3 7.2 6.5 5.8 Ecuador
Peru 6.7 6.6 8.2 7.2 6.8 6.5 6.1
Peru
Paraguay
Mexico
16
3 6 9 12 15
2018 2019 2020 2021
12 Notes and sources
Note: Unemployment rate as % of active population (for details see notes

in country). Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
8
0
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Paraguay
Latin America -4.4 -3.7 -6.8 -4.8 -4.3 -4.0 -3.7
Chile Colombia
-1.7 -2.8 -7.9 -5.6 -4.2 -3.3 -2.4
Mexico -2.1 -1.6 -4.2 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 Mexico
Mercosur -6.4 -5.4 -9.0 -5.8 -5.4 -5.1 -4.9 Ecuador
Argentina -5.0 -3.8 -5.6 -4.5 -3.8 -3.4 -3.0 Uruguay
Brazil -7.1 -5.9 -10.3 -6.3 -5.9 -5.7 -5.4
Andean Com.
Paraguay -1.3 -2.8 -4.0 -2.8 -2.5 -2.4 -2.3
Uruguay -2.9 -3.3 -5.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.2 -2.9 Argentina
Venezuela -20.7 -22.0 -23.3 -17.5 - - - Peru
Andean Com. -2.8 -2.4 -5.3 -3.6 -2.9 -2.4 -2.0 Latin America
Bolivia -8.1 -7.2 -8.7 -7.6 -6.6 -5.7 -4.9
Chile
Colombia -3.1 -2.5 -4.1 -3.4 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4
Bolivia
Ecuador -1.2 -2.0 -4.6 -2.8 -1.5 -0.7 0.1
Peru -2.3 -1.6 -6.5 -3.4 -2.8 -2.3 -1.8 Mercosur
Brazil
Venezuela -23.3
0
-12 -9 -6 -3
-3 Notes and sources
Note: Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.

Argentina: Non-financial public sector.
Brazil: Public sector borrowing requirement.
-6
Chile: Central government.
Colombia: Central government.
Ecuador: Non-financial public sector.
Mexico: Non-financial public sector.
-9 Peru: Non-financial public sector.
Venezuela: Non-financial central government.
2018 2019 2020 2021
Sources: National statistical institutes and finance ministries.
-12

Inflation, variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Venezuela 4,030
Latin America 8.2 7.7 6.8 6.4 5.7 5.2 4.4
Argentina 42.9
Chile 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1
Mercosur
Mexico 4.8 2.8 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5
Mercosur 13.2 13.5 11.7 10.4 8.8 7.6 5.9 Uruguay
Argentina 47.6 53.8 42.9 36.4 28.3 22.0 15.8 Latin America
Brazil 3.7 4.3 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 Mexico
Paraguay 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1
Colombia
Uruguay 8.0 8.8 9.4 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.6
Venezuela Chile
130,060 9,585 4,030 2,512 - - -
Andean Com. 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 Paraguay
Bolivia 1.5 1.5 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2 Brazil
Colombia 3.2 3.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 Bolivia
Ecuador 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.4
Andean Com.
Peru 2.2 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.5
Peru
Ecuador
60 -4 0 4 8 12
2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: End-of-year variation of consumer price index in %. Latin

30
15
0
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Latin America 11.69 9.28 6.35 6.33 6.41 6.46 6.58 Argentina 33.30
Chile 2.75 1.75 0.49 1.20 1.86 2.50 3.14 Mercosur
Mexico 8.25 7.25 5.03 4.84 5.28 5.56 5.84
Mercosur 17.74 13.82 9.71 9.34 8.95 8.66 7.93 Bolivia
Argentina 59.25 55.00 33.30 28.74 24.03 20.50 16.97 Latin America
Brazil 6.50 4.50 3.11 4.23 4.93 5.34 5.75
Paraguay 5.25 4.00 2.00 3.00 3.38 4.00 - Mexico
Uruguay 5.30 5.86 - - - - -
Brazil
Venezuela 15.00 24.00 - - - - -
Andean Com. 4.20 4.14 2.45 3.06 3.75 4.25 4.54 Colombia
Bolivia 8.04 8.40 8.10 8.00 7.94 7.91 -
Andean Com.
Colombia 4.25 4.25 3.04 3.60 4.20 4.60 5.01
Ecuador 5.62 6.22 - - - - - Paraguay
Peru 2.75 2.25 0.67 1.50 2.43 3.16 3.89
Peru
Chile
60
0 2 4 6 8 10
2018 2019 2020 2021

Notes and sources
40
Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %. Long-term forecasts
(2022-2024) are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period
projections. Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Argentina: 7-day LELIQ rate.
Bolivia: Prime lending rate.
Brazil: SELIC rate.
20 Chile: Monetary policy rate.
Colombia: Central Bank intervention rate.
Ecuador: 91-120 days deposit rate.
Mexico: 1-day target interbank rate.
Paraguay: Monetary policy rate.
Peru: Monetary policy rate.
0 Uruguay: 30-day deposit rate.
Latin America Mercosur Brazil Mexico Andean Com. Argentina Venezuela: 90-day average deposit rate.
Sources: National central banks.

Exchange Rates vs. USD, appreciation in % Appreciation versus USD, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Bolivia
Latin America -12.7 -4.3 -14.6 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.2
Paraguay
Chile -11.3 -7.7 -8.4 5.6 2.3 1.3 1.3
Mexico 0.0 3.8 -15.8 3.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 Peru
Mercosur -22.1 -9.9 -18.8 0.5 -2.9 -2.7 -2.2 Chile
Argentina -50.6 -37.1 -29.7 -20.0 -12.1 -10.8 -9.7
Andean Com.
Brazil -14.7 -3.4 -16.1 6.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4
Paraguay -6.3 -7.6 -2.6 -2.5 -2.8 -2.9 -2.8 Latin America
Uruguay -11.1 -13.1 -17.2 -2.9 -2.3 -1.2 -1.2 Colombia
Venezuela -98.4 -98.6 -97.5 - - - -
Mexico
Andean Com. -6.0 0.0 -9.8 2.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.2
Bolivia 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -4.5 -3.8 -3.7 Brazil
Colombia -8.1 -1.2 -15.6 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.4 Uruguay

Peru -3.9 1.7 -4.3 1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 Mercosur
Argentina
Venezuela -97.5
20
-32 -24 -16 -8 0
0 Notes and sources
Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus

USD in %. Positive number means currency is gaining value against
USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative information.
-20 Latin America and Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks and Refinitiv.
-40
2018 2019 2020 2021
-60
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Venezuela
Latin America -2.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7
Chile -3.6 -3.9 -2.0 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4 -2.6 Argentina
Mexico -1.9 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 Uruguay
Mercosur -2.7 -2.2 -2.0 -2.1 -2.0 -2.1 -2.1 Mexico
Argentina -5.0 -0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
Paraguay
Brazil -2.2 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
Latin America
Paraguay -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
Uruguay 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 Peru
Venezuela 8.7 8.0 3.2 4.8 - - - Mercosur
Andean Com. -2.8 -2.7 -3.3 -2.7 -2.5 -2.4 -2.2 Chile
Bolivia -4.5 -3.3 -5.0 -4.5 -4.1 -3.9 -3.6
Ecuador
Colombia -3.9 -4.3 -4.6 -4.1 -3.9 -3.8 -3.7
Ecuador -1.2 -0.1 -2.3 -0.4 0.4 0.9 1.3 Brazil
Peru -1.7 -1.5 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 Andean Com.
Colombia
Bolivia
2
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4
0 Notes and sources
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
-2
-4
2018 2019 2020 2021
-6

Exports, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Bolivia
Latin America 7.6 -0.6 -10.3 8.5 7.0 5.7 -
Chile 9.3 -7.1 -13.3 12.7 10.3 9.5 8.7 Argentina
Mexico 10.1 2.3 -12.8 9.7 6.8 4.8 2.7 Mercosur
Mercosur 8.5 -3.6 -9.4 6.6 6.2 5.2 4.2 Paraguay
Argentina 5.3 5.4 -7.4 5.3 3.9 3.4 3.0
Brazil
Brazil 9.9 -5.8 -10.0 6.6 6.5 5.2 3.8
Paraguay 2.5 -7.6 -9.7 14.1 13.6 12.8 12.0 Uruguay
Uruguay 4.3 -0.3 -10.2 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.9 Latin America
Venezuela -1.0 -26.2 -27.6 6.9 - - - Mexico
Andean Com. 10.3 -2.3 -18.1 15.0 12.3 10.8 9.3
Chile
Bolivia 9.4 -0.9 -6.9 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.1
Peru
Colombia 11.7 -4.6 -21.6 13.5 13.9 14.4 15.0
Ecuador 13.1 3.2 -23.6 18.1 13.9 9.4 5.0 Andean Com.
Peru 8.1 -2.9 -14.4 16.3 11.3 9.1 6.8 Colombia
Ecuador
Venezuela
20
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5
2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports. Latin

0
-10
-20
Imports, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Uruguay
Latin America 10.6 -3.2 -10.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 -
Chile Paraguay
14.8 -6.9 -20.2 15.3 11.8 9.6 7.3
Mexico 10.4 -1.9 -13.6 11.5 8.4 6.0 3.6 Brazil
Mercosur 13.0 -8.0 -8.1 9.7 8.6 7.3 6.0 Mercosur
Argentina -2.2 -25.0 -13.0 12.2 8.4 7.1 5.8 Bolivia
Brazil 20.2 -2.1 -7.1 9.0 8.5 7.0 5.4
Latin America
Paraguay 12.0 -5.2 -5.1 13.8 13.3 12.4 11.5
Uruguay 5.1 -5.8 -4.5 4.3 6.0 7.4 8.8 Argentina
Venezuela 6.5 -27.6 -13.3 9.2 - - - Colombia
Andean Com. 11.1 -0.4 -14.5 13.2 11.1 9.7 8.5 Venezuela
Bolivia 7.8 -3.2 -9.8 10.7 8.7 6.8 5.0
Peru
Colombia 12.1 2.5 -13.1 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.7
Ecuador 15.8 -2.6 -21.6 15.5 10.1 6.9 3.7 Mexico
Peru 8.3 -1.9 -13.4 15.1 11.1 8.7 6.2 Andean Com.
Chile
Ecuador
30
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports. Latin

0
-15
2018 2019 2020 2021
-30

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Brazil
Latin America 9.3 9.3 10.0 9.2 8.7 8.3 8.3
Chile 6.8 7.4 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.2 7.1 Peru
Mexico 4.5 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.3 Mercosur
Mercosur 20.7 20.6 21.3 19.7 18.5 17.4 16.3 Uruguay
Argentina 12.1 10.9 11.8 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.9
Andean Com.
Brazil 24.8 24.1 24.8 23.0 21.4 20.0 19.1
Paraguay 7.4 7.8 8.2 7.4 6.9 6.3 - Colombia
Uruguay 20.5 20.3 19.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.3 Argentina
Venezuela 8.3 9.7 9.5 8.7 - - - Latin America
Andean Com. 11.5 12.6 14.4 12.9 12.1 11.4 11.0
Venezuela
Bolivia 9.2 5.8 5.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.8
Colombia Chile
11.7 12.6 14.2 12.8 11.7 10.7 9.8
Ecuador 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 Paraguay
Peru 17.3 20.0 23.1 20.7 19.5 18.7 18.3 Bolivia
Mexico
Ecuador
28
0 5 10 15 20 25
2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: International reserves as months of imports. Latin America and

Mercosur forecasts exclude Venezuela.
Sources: Central banks.
14
0
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2020

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Venezuela 182
Latin America 34.4 36.5 43.2 40.8 40.0 39.4 -
Chile 61.8 69.9 85.5 80.6 74.6 71.0 - Uruguay
Mexico 36.6 36.8 44.0 41.8 41.3 41.2 - Chile
Mercosur 26.0 27.9 33.0 29.8 28.0 26.7 - Argentina
Argentina 51.4 63.7 63.7 57.9 53.0 48.0 -
Ecuador
Brazil 17.0 17.6 21.8 20.0 18.9 18.2 17.6
Colombia
Paraguay 39.1 45.7 47.2 46.5 44.8 43.1 41.5
Uruguay 70.8 76.2 91.6 92.6 90.9 89.4 - Paraguay
Venezuela 113 157 182 178 - - - Andean Com.
Andean Com. 37.8 40.7 45.9 45.0 47.2 48.3 - Mexico
Bolivia 33.0 35.9 38.7 39.6 42.5 46.2 49.5
Latin America
Colombia 39.6 42.7 50.9 48.9 49.2 48.7 48.5
Ecuador 40.9 48.7 53.0 54.0 55.1 55.4 - Bolivia
Peru 34.5 34.9 37.8 37.2 41.9 45.2 - Peru
Mercosur
Brazil
70
0 25 50 75 100
2018 2019 2020 2021
Notes and sources

50
Note: External debt as % of GDP. Latin America and Mercosur
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and finance
ministries.
30
10

Major Risk Indicators | EMBI Spreads and Sovereign Ratings

Sovereign Spreads (bps) Moody's S&P Fitch Ratings
March February Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Ratings Outlook
Argentina 3,803 2,283 Ca Negative SD N/A C n/a
Bolivia - - B1 Negative B+ Stable B+ Negative
Brazil 385 252 Ba2 Stable BB- Stable BB- Stable
Chile 287 147 A1 Stable A+ Stable A Negative
Colombia 378 214 Baa2 Stable BBB- Negative BBB- Negative
Ecuador 4,553 1,466 Caa3 Negative SD N/A C N/A
Mexico 349 219 Baa1 Negative BBB Negative BBB- Stable
Paraguay - - Ba1 Stable BB Stable BB+ Stable
Peru 195 129 A3 Stable BBB+ Stable BBB+ Stable
Uruguay 298 196 Baa2 Stable BBB Stable BBB- Negative
Venezuela 19,270 12,246 C Stable SD N.M. WD -
Overview | Spread in bps Argentina Brazil
Venezuela 19,270 4,000 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Ecuador
Argentina Brazil
Argentina
3,000 600
EMBI + Latin
Brazil
2,000 400
Colombia
Mexico
Uruguay 1,000 200
Chile
Peru
0 0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Chile Colombia Mexico
800 800 800

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
600 600 600
400 400 400
200 200 200
0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
800 1,000 20,000

EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin EMBI + Latin
Peru Uruguay Venezuela
600 750 15,000
400 500 10,000
200 250 5,000
0 0 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Major Stock Markets | Performance in %
MSCI Price Indices (USD) National Benchmark Stock Indices (local currencies)
March 2020
Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD Last Month Last 3 Months Last 12 Months YTD
Argentina -32.1 -39.3 -52.1 -39.3 -30.3 -41.5 -27.1 -41.5
Brazil -38.3 -50.6 -43.7 -50.6 -29.9 -36.9 -23.5 -36.9
Chile -18.5 -34.1 -48.3 -34.1 -15.7 -25.2 -34.4 -25.2
Colombia -41.5 -50.3 -49.6 -50.3 - - - -
Mexico -29.4 -35.6 -33.9 -35.6 -16.4 -20.6 -20.2 -20.6
Peru -22.2 -35.9 -41.4 -35.9 -20.8 -29.5 -31.4 -29.5
Latin America -34.6 -46.0 -42.6 -46.0 - - - -
Emerging Markets -15.6 -23.9 -19.8 -23.9 - - - -
World -13.7 -21.7 -13.0 -21.7 - - - -
Overview | month-on-month var. in % Argentina Brazil
World 250 100

Latin America Latin America
Emerging
Markets Argentina Brazil
200
Chile 75
Peru
150
Mexico
50
Argentina 100
Latin
America 25
50
Brazil
Colombia
0 0
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 Apr-14 Oct-15 Apr-17 Oct-18 Apr-20 Apr-14 Oct-15 Apr-17 Oct-18 Apr-20
125 150 150

Latin America
Chile
100
100 100
75
50 50
50
Colombia Mexico
25 0 0
Apr-14 Oct-15 Apr-17 Oct-18 Apr-20 Apr-14 Oct-15 Apr-17 Oct-18 Apr-20 Apr-14 Oct-15 Apr-17 Oct-18 Apr-20
Peru
200
Latin America
Peru
150
100
50
0
Apr-14 Oct-15 Apr-17 Oct-18 Apr-20

Cross Exchange Rate Forecasts | Year end
United States Euro Area

U.S. Dollar (USD) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Euro (EUR) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States - - - - United States 1.18 1.12 1.11 1.14
Japan 110 109 107 108 Japan 129 122 119 123
Euro Area 0.85 0.89 0.90 0.88 Euro Area - - - -
Argentina 37.66 59.88 85.14 106 Argentina 44.5 67.0 94.7 121
Brazil 3.88 4.02 4.79 4.51 Brazil 4.58 4.50 5.33 5.12
Chile 694 752 821 777 Chile 820 842 913 883
Colombia 3,248 3,287 3,895 3,775 Colombia 3,835 3,680 4,332 4,288
Mexico 19.65 18.93 22.49 21.66 Mexico 23.2 21.2 25.0 24.6
Peru 3.37 3.31 3.46 3.43 Peru 3.98 3.71 3.85 3.89
Venezuela 638 46,621 1,890,955 67.6 mn. Venezuela 754 52,191 2,102,969 76.8 mn.
Japan Argentina
Japanese Yen (JPY,100) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Argentine Peso (ARS) 2018 2019 2020 2021
United States 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.93 United States 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01
Japan - - - - Japan 2.91 1.81 1.25 1.01
Euro Area 0.77 0.82 0.84 0.82 Euro Area 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
Argentina 34.4 55.1 79.8 98.6 Argentina - - - -
Brazil 3.54 3.70 4.49 4.18 Brazil 0.10 0.07 0.06 0.04
Chile 633 692 770 721 Chile 18.4 12.6 9.6 7.3
Colombia 2,964 3,026 3,653 3,499 Colombia 86.2 54.9 45.8 35.5
Mexico 17.9 17.4 21.1 20.1 Mexico 0.52 0.32 0.26 0.20
Peru 3.07 3.05 3.25 3.18 Peru 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.03
Venezuela 582 42,919 1,773,426 62.7 mn. Venezuela 16.9 779 22,211 635,696
Brazil Chile
Brazilian Real (BRL) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Chilean Peso (CLP, 100) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 28.2 27.0 22.3 23.9 Japan 15.8 14.4 13.0 13.9
Argentina 9.70 14.90 17.78 23.59 Argentina 5.43 7.96 10.37 13.68
Brazil - - - - Brazil 0.56 0.53 0.58 0.58
Chile 179 187 171 172 Chile - - - -
Colombia 837 818 813 837 Colombia 468 437 475 486
Mexico 5.06 4.71 4.70 4.80 Mexico 2.83 2.52 2.74 2.79
Peru 0.87 0.82 0.72 0.76 Peru 0.49 0.44 0.42 0.44
Venezuela 164 11,599 394,851 15.0 mn. Venezuela 92.0 6,200 230,413 8,699,334
Colombia Mexico
Colombian Peso (COP, 1000) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mexican Peso (MXN) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 33.7 33.0 27.4 28.6 Japan 5.58 5.74 4.74 4.98
Brazil 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.19 Brazil 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.21
Chile 214 229 211 206 Chile 35.3 39.7 36.5 35.9
Colombia - - - - Colombia 165 174 173 174
Mexico 6.05 5.76 5.77 5.74 Mexico - - - -
Peru 1.04 1.01 0.89 0.91 Peru 0.17 0.17 0.15 0.16
Venezuela 197 14,182 485,422 17.9 mn. Venezuela 32.5 2,462 84,098 3,122,614
Peru Venezuela
Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN) 2018 2019 2020 2021 Venezuelan Bolívar (VES) 2018 2019 2020 2021
Japan 32.5 32.8 30.8 31.5 Japan 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brazil 1.15 1.21 1.38 1.32 Brazil 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Chile 206 227 237 227 Chile 1.09 0.02 0.00 0.00
Colombia 964 992 1,125 1,101 Colombia 5.09 0.07 0.00 0.00
Mexico 5.83 5.71 6.50 6.32 Mexico 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
Peru - - - - Peru 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Venezuela 189 14,072 546,226 19.7 mn. Venezuela - - - -

cOVID-19 tRACKER
Coronavirus Statistics | Accumulated and Daily Data
Accumulated Case Count Accumulated Death Count

29-Mar 05-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 29-Mar 05-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr
Latin America 12,029 27,174 54,622 89,465 271 966 2,347 4,489
Chile 2,139 4,471 7,213 10,088 7 34 80 133
Mexico 848 1,890 4,219 7,497 16 79 273 650
Mercosur 5,483 13,244 25,129 42,472 161 545 1,335 2,621
Argentina 745 1,451 2,142 2,839 19 44 90 132
Brazil 4,256 11,130 22,192 38,654 136 486 1,223 2,462
Paraguay 59 104 134 206 3 3 6 8
Uruguay 304 400 480 517 1 5 7 10
Venezuela 119 159 181 256 2 7 9 9
Andean Com. 3,559 7,569 18,061 29,408 87 308 659 1,085
Bolivia 81 157 300 520 1 10 24 32
Colombia 702 1,485 2,776 3,792 10 35 109 179
Ecuador 1,924 3,646 7,466 9,468 58 180 333 474
Peru 852 2,281 7,519 15,628 18 83 193 400
Accumulated Case Counts Accumulated Death Counts
40,000 2,500
29-Mar 05-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr 29-Mar 05-Apr 12-Apr 19-Apr
2,000
30,000
1,500
20,000
1,000
10,000
500
0 0
Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Chile Peru Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia Chile Peru
Note: Accumulated case counts over one-week intervals. Note: Accumulated death counts over one-week intervals.
New Daily Cases New Daily Deaths
2,500 200
Brazil Argentina Mexico Brazil Mexico Argentina
Colombia Chile Peru Colombia Chile Peru

2,000
150
1,500
100
1,000
50
500
0 0
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 0 7 14 21 28 35 42
Note: Seven-day rolling average of new daily cases (vertical scale) by number Note: Seven-day rolling average of new daily deaths (vertical scale) by number
of days (horizontal scale) since the first case was reported. of days (horizontal scale) since the first death was reported.
Source for all coronavirus statistics: Johns Hopkins University.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast | 21

FOCUSECONOMICS
Economic Release Calendar

Calendar April 2020
Date Country Event

22 April Argentina March Merchandise Trade
24 April Brazil March Balance of Payments
Mexico February Economic Activity
27 April Brazil April Consumer Confidence
28 April Argentina February Economic Activity
Mexico March Merchandise Trade
29 April Brazil April Business Confidence
30 April Colombia Central Bank Meeting
Colombia March Merchandise Exports
Mexico Q1 2020 National Accounts (P)
1 May Chile April Business Confidence
Chile April Copper Prices
Mexico March Remittances
Peru April Consumer Prices (P)
4 May Brazil April Manufacturing PMI
Colombia April Davivienda Manufacturing PMI
Mexico April IMEF Manufacturing PMI
Mexico April IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
5 May Brazil March Industrial Production
Colombia April Consumer Prices
Uruguay April Consumer Prices
6 May Argentina March Industrial Production
Brazil Central Bank Meeting
Chile Central Bank Meeting
7 May Colombia April Consumer Confidence
Mexico April Consumer Prices
Mexico April Consumer Confidence
Peru Central Bank Meeting
Peru March Merchandise Trade
Peru April Consumer Prices
Peru April Business Confidence
8 May Brazil April Consumer Prices
Chile April Consumer Prices
Ecuador April Consumer Prices (E)
12 May Mexico March Industrial Production
Uruguay March Industrial Production
13 May Brazil March Retail Sales
Ecuador March Economic Activity
Uruguay Q1 2020 National Accounts
14 May Argentina April Consumer Prices
Colombia April Industrial Production
Mexico Central Bank Meeting
15 May Brazil March Economic Activity
(P) Preliminary estimate. (E) Approximate date.

FOCUSECONOMICS Argentina April 2020
Argentina
Outlook worsens
Argentina
• After the economy closed 2019 on a sour note, hit by plunging domestic
demand, short-term prospects have deteriorated drastically amid the
Covid-19 pandemic and the strict containment measures imposed to curb
its spread. Following a drop in economic activity in January, a sharper fall
in exports in February and abysmal consumer confidence in March spell
trouble for the economy. To mitigate the blow, the government announced
a series of measures in March amounting to about 2.3% of GDP which
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages include additional health and infrastructure spending; increased social
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
subsidies; wage support; and loans extension for businesses. Further
Population (million): 44.1 45.6 47.1 complicating matters, on 17 April the government unveiled a restructuring
GDP (USD bn): 582 441 552
proposal on around USD 66 billion of foreign debt, which a creditor group
GDP per capita (USD): 13,209 9,672 11,719
GDP growth (%): -0.7 -1.5 2.5 already rejected on 20 April. Bondholders will have around 20 days to
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.6 -4.6 -3.4 respond, and a contentious and complex negotiation process is expected.
Public Debt (% of GDP): 65.2 86.5 80.8
Inflation (%): 34.3 45.9 22.8
Current Account (% of GDP): -4.2 -0.1 -0.2 • The coronavirus outbreak will derail Argentina’s already troubled
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.1 61.8 50.5
economy, hammering domestic and external demand and drying up
Massimo Bassetti external financing sources. Moreover, it will hit the country’s precarious
Economist fiscal position, increasing the use of deficit monetary financing. Risks of
government debt default and associated financial turmoil further cloud
the outlook. LatinFocus Consensus sees the economy contracting 5.5%
in 2020, which is down 3.9 percentage points from last month’s estimate,
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts before rebounding 3.3% in 2021.
10 4
2
• Inflation declined in March, coming in at 48.4% (February: 50.3%),
5
although the month-on-month increase in consumer prices was sharper
0
than in February. This year, inflation is poised to remain high due to a
0
-2 rapid expansion of the monetary base and strong FX pressures, with the
-5 return to monetary financing of fiscal deficits posing further upside risks.
-4
2020 2021
FocusEconomics panelists project inflation to end 2020 at 42.9% and
-10 -6 2021 at 36.4%.
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021

2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. • In two subsequent decisions on 19 and 26 March, the Central Bank of
Argentina (BCRA) adopted measures to improve the payment chain and
to boost credit to SMEs, as part of efforts to mitigate the economic impact
of Covid-19 lockdown measures. Going forward, the BCRA is seen
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts lowering rates further in a bid to support the economy. FocusEconomics
70
Argentina 50 analysts see the LELIQ rate ending 2020 at 33.30% and 2021 at 28.74%.
Latin America 2020 2021
56
40
• On 17 April, the ARS traded at 65.79 per USD, a 3.8% depreciation from
42
the same day in March. Coronavirus-associated recessions fears, strong
30
28
safe-haven demand for dollars and the debt restructuring proposal put
20
downside pressures on the peso. Meanwhile, the parallel-market dollar
14
was priced at a significantly higher rate of around 101.00 ARS per USD.
0 10 Analysts see the ARS ending 2020 and 2021 at 85.14 per USD and
106.39 per USD, respectively.
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021
variation in %, Q1 2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months.

POLITICS | Government unveils debt restructuring proposal amid

coronavirus crisis
Following the government’s decision, in early April, to unilaterally postpone
payments on USD 10 billion of foreign currency debt governed by local law
until the end of the year, on 16 April the government launched a proposal to
restructure around USD 66 billion of foreign debt which includes a three-year
moratorium, a large cut on interest payments and a minor reduction in the
value of principal. The proposal, which was already rejected by a creditor
group on 20 April, came amid the economic blow from Covid-19 and stalled
debt restructuring talks with international creditors.
Against this backdrop, the federal administration unveiled a plan for foreign
debt restructuring, through which it hopes to get some fiscal relief to be able
to shore up public finances and stimulate the economy. The plan includes a
three-year grace period during which no payments would be made. After this
period, it would then start paying interest of 0.5% in 2023, a rate which would
then increase to bring the average coupon paid to around 2.3%—against an
average of around 6.6% currently. This would result in a hefty 62% haircut
on interest payments—almost USD 38 billion. Meanwhile, the face value of
the debt would be reduced by a relatively small 5.4%—or USD 3.6 billion—
for total savings of around USD 41.5 billion. Bondholders were also offered
the option to swap their current debt obligations for new debt instruments,
for which principal payments would start not earlier than 2026, and interest
payments in 2022.
The government had to delay talks with creditors on debt restructuring as

it failed to strike a deal by the self-imposed deadline of 31 March—needed
in order to start a new financing program with the IMF. The lack of an
agreement with bondholders, coupled with the economic damages caused
by Covid-19, explains the recent restructuring proposal. Martin Guzmán,
Argentina’s economy minister, said bondholders will have around 20 days
from the formal launch on 17 April before the offer is closed to respond. On
20 April, a creditor group rejected the offer, calling the government to engage
in further negotiations and to provide a more credible repayment plan. If a
deal is not struck, the cash-strapped country is set for its ninth default since
its independence. A deal is all the more important as it is a precondition to
resume negotiations with the IMF on USD 44 billion already transferred by the
Fund, and given the possibility for creditors to press for full repayment in U.S.
courts, as bonds being negotiated are governed by international law.
Early in April, partly due to economic disruptions caused by lockdown

measures, and as a consequence of dwindling fiscal revenues, additional
public spending and a lack of funding sources, the government postponed the
payment on USD 10 billion debt governed by local law due this year until 2021
or a date earlier to be defined by the Ministry of Economy. Although the move
renewed concerns about the government’s strategy on debt restructuring, some
analysts deduced it would give the country more room to repay its foreign-law
debt, therefore limiting risks of unpredictable international lawsuits. However,
with the proposal to restructure debt governed by foreign law, this risk is
elevated. Investors appear skeptical of the current plan, which significantly
increases the prospects of default, and a hard-fought renegotiation process is
expected before the offer expires.

FISCAL | Government approves underwhelming stimulus package

against coronavirus blow
Amid a worsening economic environment due to the outbreak of the
coronavirus pandemic and containment measures to contain its spread, the
government adopted a set of measures in March to cushion the blow. The
stimulus package is relatively limited in scope, however, owing to the country’s
already challenging fiscal and debt position. In the same month, the Central
Bank adopted a plan to support liquidity and boost credit to SMEs.
The country entered the Covid-19 crisis following two consecutive years of
economic contraction, with reduced international reserves, rampant inflation,
strict capital controls, a fragile fiscal position and extremely limited market
access in dollar-denominated debt. Against this backdrop, the government
announced two rounds of fiscal measures on 18 and 23 March. The packages
total nearly ARS 700 billion (around 2.3% of GDP), half of which represents
direct fiscal spending, while the other half constitutes credit stimulus measures.
They are mainly focused on supporting SMEs and include additional investment
into the health system; increased social subsidies; extra infrastructure
spending; the suspension of social security contributions in certain industries;
wage support; loans extension for businesses; and additional transfers to
provinces. That said, the anti-coronavirus packages represent only a relatively
small percentage of GDP, constrained by the country’s limited fiscal room.
Therefore, the government will like continue resorting to monetary expansion
to finance the widened fiscal deficit—something it has has already being doing
in the last few months.
Looking ahead, spillovers from coronavirus are set to take a heavy toll on
an already-ailing economy. The pandemic will depress foreign demand while
also hitting investment decisions. Moreover, due to the lack of alternative
sources of financing, the monetary financing of the fiscal deficit risks igniting
inflation further, putting further pressure on the parallel exchange rate and
thus exacerbating macroeconomic discoordination. On top of that, uncertainty
surrounding debt restructuring and the grave risk of another debt default will
also be undermining investor confidence, cutting the country off from external
financing sources.
REAL SECTOR | Economy contracts again in Q4 2019

Economic activity in the fourth quarter fell 1.1% year-on-year, following Q3’s
sharper 1.8% slump, according to the Statistical Institute (INDEC). Another
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
sizable contraction in domestic demand was behind the economy’s gloomy
10.0
performance, weighed on by sky-high interest rates, downbeat investors’
confidence and runaway inflation. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-
5.0 adjusted basis, the economy contracted 1.0% in Q4, contrasting the 1.0%
% increase observed in Q3. Taking the year as a whole, the economy contracted
0.0 2.2% in 2019, after shrinking 2.5% in 2018.
-5.0 Domestic demand again sank 5.2% in annual terms in Q4 (Q3: -8.3% year-
on-year), with private consumption dropping 1.9% (Q3: -4.7% yoy) amid an
-10.0
ailing labor market, abysmal consumer confidence and elevated inflation.
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021
Meanwhile, fixed investment plunged 9.0% (Q3: -10.1% yoy), led by a
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. significant contraction in investment in construction and machinery equipment,
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast. and government consumption fell 3.1% in Q4 (Q3: -0.4% yoy), reflecting the
government’s intensified efforts to cut spending to meet fiscal targets as
agreed with the IMF.

While the external sector continued to support growth, a smaller increase in

exports and a less pronounced contraction in imports limited the contribution.
Imports fell 10.1% in Q4 (Q3: -15.1% yoy), again reflecting plummeting
domestic demand. Exports, meanwhile, rose 7.4% in Q4 (Q3: +13.8% yoy),
supported by rising agricultural production in the quarter.
FocusEconomics analysts see the economy in recession this year, contracting

5.5%, down 3.9 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In
2021, analysts see GDP finally rebounding, with growth coming in at 3.3%.
REAL SECTOR | Contraction in economic activity sharpens at 2020

outset
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % Actividad Económica) fell 1.8% year-on-year in January, after logging a 0.2%
2.4 6.0
dip in December.
1.2 3.0
In terms of productive sectors, January’s more pronounced fall was largely
0.0 0.0 driven by sharper contractions in the construction and the agricultural sectors;
% % a massive downturn in the fishing sector; the manufacturing sector swinging
-1.2 -3.0 from a timid expansion to contraction; and softer growth in the internal trade
sector.
-2.4 -6.0
Month-on-month (left scale)

Year-on-year (right scale)
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity inched down
-3.6 -9.0
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 0.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, contrasting December’s 0.4%
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted EMAE (Estimador uptick. Meanwhile, the average annual variation in economic activity improved
Mensual de Actividad Económica) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC) and from a 2.2% contraction in December to a 1.9% fall in the first month of this
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast calculations.
year.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production contracts at sharper pace in

February
Industrial production fell 0.8% year-on-year in February, according to data
released by the National Statistical Institute (INDEC) on 7 April. The reading
Industrial Production | variation in % follows January’s softer 0.3% year-on-year decrease.
8
Year-on-Year
Annual average
In February, the sharpest falls were recorded in the production of automotive
and other transport equipment and of furniture and other manufacturing
0
industries. On the other hand, the manufacture of food, beverages and
% tobacco as well as the refinery of oil and the production of chemicals and of
plastic products increased.
-8
Meanwhile, the annual average variation in industrial output rose from

January’s minus 5.3% to minus 4.7% in February.
-16
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in % and annual average

growth rate in %.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect that
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and LatinFocus industrial production will contract 6.3% in 2020, which is down 4.3 percentage
Consensus Forecast calculations.
points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel expects industrial output
to rise 3.3%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence further down into pessimistic terrain

in March
The Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT) consumer confidence index edged
down to 41.2 in March from 42.7 in February. Therefore, the index moved
further below the 50-threshold that separates optimism from pessimism
among consumers, where it has been for over two years.

March’s print reflected a broad-based deterioration in all three sub-components

Consumer Confidence of the index. Consumers’ outlook on the future general macroeconomic
55 conditions deteriorated notably, as did their willingness to purchase big-
ticket items. Moreover, consumers had worse assessments of their personal
50 financial conditions compared to one year ago, and their expectations on their
personal financial situation in one-year view deteriorated.
45
Panelists surveyed for the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see private

40
consumption dropping 6.3% in 2020, which is down 4.5 percentage points
35
from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists expect private consumption to
increase 3.2%.
30
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in March
Note: Monthly consumer confidence index. Values above 50 indicate optimistic
consumer sentiment while values below 50 indicate pessimistic sentiment. Consumer prices rose 3.3% over the previous month in March, coming in
Source: Universidad Torcuato di Tella (UTDT).
above February’s 2.0% rise which had marked the softest increase since
January 2018, according to the National Statistical Institute (INDEC). In terms
of sub-components of the index, the higher print came on the back of a broad-
based acceleration in price growth. The fastest price increases were recorded
for food and non-alcoholic beverages; education; communication; clothing
and footwear.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
8.0 60 Meanwhile, inflation declined, coming in at an over one-year low of 48.4% in
Year-on-year (right scale) March (February: 50.3%), while annual average inflation declined to 53.3%
6.0 50 from 53.8% in February.
% %
4.0 40
Inflation is expected to be 42.9% at the end of 2020, which is up 2.7 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. Inflation is projected to fall to 36.4% at the
end of 2021.
2.0 30
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank intervenes in March to soften

0.0
20
coronavirus blow
In two subsequent decisions on 19 and 26 March, the Central Bank of
Note: Annual and monthly var. of national consumer price index in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC). Argentina (BCRA) adopted measures to improve the payment chain and to
boost credit to SMEs, as part of efforts to ameliorate the economic impact of
Covid-19 lockdown measures.
In March, the Central Bank announced its decision to lower reserve

requirements for those commercial banks that granted special credit lines to
households and SMEs at a maximum interest rate of 24.0%—well below the
key monetary policy rate of 38.0%. The special credit lines should be extended
Monetary Policy Rate | in %
to SMEs principally with the aim of paying workers’ wages. Moreover, the Bank
100
temporarily loosened bank provisioning needs and bank loan classification
rules, to further support the flow of credit and thus prevent business closures.
80
Looking ahead, it remains uncertain whether the combination of lower interest

60
rates—on 5 March, the Central Bank set a new lower floor for the LELIQ
% rate at 38.0%—and looser credit rules will prove effective to alleviating the
40 economic damage inflicted by Covid-19 containment measures or whether
they will simply fuel inflation. Lower interest rates and an expanding monetary
20 base could put pressure on the peso and stoke price pressures.
Note: 7-day LELIQ Rate in %. On average, panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast
Source: Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (Banco Central de la República
Argentina). see the LELIQ rate ending 2020 at 33.30%. They see the LELIQ rate easing
in 2021, closing the year at 28.74%.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports contract at faster pace in February on

diving purchases from China
Exports fell 2.8% in year-on-year terms in February, following January’s softer
0.6% dip. The print was the result of falling exports of manufactured products
of agricultural and industrial origin and of fuels and energy, which more than
Merchandise Trade offset higher foreign sales of primary products. In terms of export markets,
18 36 February’s print mainly resulted from tumbling overseas shipments to China,
compounded by lower sales to Brazil, India, Chile and the U.S. more than
9 18
offsetting rising exports to Germany and Indonesia.
%
Imports slumped 20.1% annually in February, a sharper drop than January’s
0 0
16.1% fall. Diving imports of passenger motor vehicles and significant
contractions in the imports of fuels and lubricants, capital and intermediate
-9 -18
goods drove February’s downturn.
Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale)
Exports (USD bn, right scale)
Imports (USD bn, right scale)
-18
Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
-36 Meanwhile, the trade balance surplus widened from USD 1.0 billion in January
to USD 1.1 billion in February (February 2019: USD 0.5 billion surplus).
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %. Moreover, the 12-month rolling trade balance rose from a USD 16.6 billion
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
surplus in January to a USD 17.3 billion surplus in February (February 2019:
USD 1.1 billion shortfall), marking the best result since July 2009.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect

merchandise exports to drop 7.4% in 2020 and merchandise imports to
decrease 13.0%, pushing the trade balance to a USD 17.6 billion surplus.
For 2021, the panel expects merchandise exports to increase 5.3% and
merchandise imports to rebound 12.2%, with a trade surplus of USD 15.6
billion.

Economic Indicators | 2015 - 2024
Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 43.1 43.6 44.1 44.6 45.1 45.6 46.1 46.6 47.1 47.6
GDP per capita (USD) 15,110 12,778 14,727 12,123 9,679 9,412 9,926 10,798 11,876 12,484
GDP (USD bn) 652 557 649 540 436 429 457 503 559 594
GDP (ARS bn) 5,955 8,228 10,645 14,606 21,650 30,521 43,121 57,165 71,726 84,906
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 30.0 38.2 29.4 37.2 48.2 41.0 41.3 32.6 25.5 18.4
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.7 -2.1 2.7 -2.5 -2.2 -5.5 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 4.2 -1.6 6.0 -3.4 -8.7 -7.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.7 -0.8 4.0 -2.4 -6.4 -6.3 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.9 -0.5 2.7 -3.3 -1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 3.5 -5.8 12.2 -5.7 -15.9 -17.7 5.8 5.1 4.5 4.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.8 5.3 1.7 -0.7 9.4 -5.3 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.0
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.7 5.8 15.4 -4.7 -18.7 -13.1 7.5 5.9 4.7 3.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 0.1 -4.5 2.5 -5.0 -6.4 -6.3 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.1 8.4 8.4 9.2 9.8 12.3 11.4 10.4 9.6 8.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.1 -5.8 -5.9 -5.0 -3.8 -5.6 -4.5 -3.8 -3.4 -3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 52.6 53.1 56.6 86.0 89.4 87.0 82.9 81.6 80.8 80.0
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 28.2 30.4 26.0 22.8 30.9 55.1 39.0 34.0 27.8 21.6
Monetary Base (ann. var. %) 34.9 31.7 21.8 40.7 34.5 53.7 34.3 28.5 22.3 16.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 26.9 41.0 24.8 47.6 53.8 42.9 36.4 28.3 22.0 15.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 26.7 41.2 27.7 34.3 53.5 46.4 38.0 29.8 23.0 16.1
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 33.00 24.75 28.75 59.25 55.00 33.30 28.74 24.03 20.50 16.97
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 27.25 19.88 23.25 49.50 40.31 26.86 26.04 22.62 20.22 -
Stock Market (ann. var. of MERVAL %) 36.1 44.9 77.7 0.8 37.6 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, eop) 12.94 15.86 18.60 37.66 59.88 85.14 106.39 120.99 135.59 150.18
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 9.27 14.77 16.56 28.08 48.22 71.19 94.33 113.69 128.29 142.89
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.7 -2.7 -4.8 -5.0 -0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -17.6 -15.1 -31.2 -27.3 -3.5 1.9 0.2 -0.2 -1.2 -2.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.4 2.1 -8.3 -3.7 16.0 17.6 15.6 14.0 12.6 11.4
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 56.8 57.9 58.6 61.8 65.1 60.3 63.5 66.0 68.2 70.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 60.2 55.9 66.9 65.5 49.1 42.7 47.9 52.0 55.6 58.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -17.0 2.0 1.3 5.3 5.4 -7.4 5.3 3.9 3.4 3.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -8.4 -7.2 19.8 -2.2 -25.0 -13.0 12.2 8.4 7.1 5.8
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 11.8 3.3 11.5 12.2 - - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 25.6 39.3 55.1 65.8 44.8 42.0 43.3 47.9 50.6 53.2
International Reserves (months of imports) 5.1 8.4 9.9 12.1 10.9 11.8 10.8 11.1 10.9 10.9
External Debt (USD bn) 167 181 235 278 278 273 265 266 268 -
External Debt (% of GDP) 25.7 32.6 36.1 51.4 63.7 63.7 57.9 53.0 48.0 -
Quarterly Data Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -1.8 -1.1 -3.2 -9.0 -6.1 -3.1 -0.1 6.8 4.3 3.1
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 1.0 -1.0 -1.8 -5.7 2.5 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -8.3 -5.2 -5.1 -11.3 -9.8 -6.0 -1.7 6.1 5.2 5.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -4.7 -1.9 -4.0 -10.6 -7.9 -5.0 -1.6 6.9 4.4 4.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.4 -3.1 -0.2 3.3 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -10.1 -9.0 -13.1 -26.0 -19.4 -10.7 -4.6 9.4 10.1 8.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -4.4 -1.6 -3.6 -13.2 -6.3 -3.0 0.1 4.7 3.0 3.0
7-Day LELIQ Rate (%, eop) 78.37 55.00 38.00 35.10 33.66 33.30 31.47 31.17 30.52 28.74
Central Bank Badlar Rate (%, eop) 58.88 40.31 27.56 27.22 26.87 26.86 26.81 26.71 26.36 26.04
Exchange Rate (ARS per USD, aop) 50.34 59.29 61.46 67.74 74.30 81.28 86.79 90.94 96.56 103.04
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.1 2.8 -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.0 3.0 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 3.9 6.5 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.4 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.0
Monthly Data Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
Economic Activity (EMAE, ann. var. %) -0.4 0.4 -3.6 -2.1 -1.0 -2.2 -0.2 -1.8 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -7.2 -1.7 -6.4 -5.0 -1.9 -4.4 1.4 -0.3 -0.8 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 40.6 44.2 41.9 42.1 43.8 41.4 42.4 43.0 42.7 41.2
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 2.7 2.2 4.0 5.9 3.3 4.3 3.7 2.3 2.0 3.3
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 55.8 54.4 54.5 53.5 50.5 52.1 53.8 52.9 50.3 48.4
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.2 1.0 1.1 -
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 2.1 8.1 7.0 14.1 9.1 10.1 0.7 -0.6 -2.8 -
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -23.6 -20.7 -30.3 -14.9 -18.8 -21.9 -20.0 -16.1 -20.1 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
12 10 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021

Argentina ABECEB -6.1 5.5
Latin America
World
Analytica Consultora -7.9 -
6 5 Banco de Galicia -4.3 3.5
Banco Supervielle -6.2 6.3
C&T Asesores -5.3 2.2
0 0 Capital Economics -3.0 2.0
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.1 -
Credit Suisse -3.7 1.9
-6 -5 DuckerFrontier -5.1 4.2
Argentina Eco Go -4.3 -
Latin America Ecolatina -5.7 4.6
World
-12 -10 Econométrica -8.5 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Econviews -7.0 6.9
EIU -6.7 4.8
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Empiria Consultores -6.3 4.2
FIEL -7.5 3.1
6 9 Fitch Solutions -5.2 2.0
Fundación Capital -6.1 3.5
Maximum
3 Consensus Goldman Sachs -5.4 2.2
6 Minimum HSBC -6.1 3.0
Invecq Consulting -6.0 -
0 Itaú Unibanco -6.4 3.7
3 JPMorgan -5.8 2.4
-3 Julius Baer -4.0 2.0
Kiel Institute -5.5 5.0
0 LCG -5.7 -
Maximum
-6 Moody's Analytics -4.5 3.0
Consensus
Minimum OJF & Asociados -6.0 5.0
-9 -3 Oxford Economics -5.7 3.2
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Quantum Finanzas -3.5 1.8
S&P Global -7.0 2.6
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Scotiabank -5.6 4.2
Société Générale -4.6 -0.8
40% Standard Chartered -2.7 1.9
Torino Capital -5.8 1.3
UBS -4.7 2.7
30% Summary
Minimum -8.5 -0.8
Maximum -2.7 6.9
20% Median -5.7 3.1
Consensus -5.5 3.3
History
10% 30 days ago -1.6 1.5
60 days ago -1.5 1.7
90 days ago -1.5 1.7
0% Additional Forecasts
<-9.0 -8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 >-2.0
IMF (Apr. 2020) -5.7 4.4
World Bank (Apr. 2020) -5.2 2.2
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
3 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 GDP, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in
%. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts
Consumption and Investment 6 | Consumption | variation in %

Consumption Investment
20
variation in % variation in %
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
ABECEB -6.5 5.1 -19.3 14.2
10
Banco de Galicia -7.9 - -15.4 -
Capital Economics -7.5 1.5 -13.0 5.2
Credit Suisse -3.0 0.5 -9.1 2.2
0
DuckerFrontier -6.1 4.5 - -
Eco Go -4.0 - -25.0 -
Ecolatina -5.1 5.0 -23.1 8.9
-10
Econométrica -5.6 - -22.4 -
Econviews -6.0 2.0 -13.0 2.0 Argentina
EIU -11.0 3.9 -15.2 15.7 Latin America

-20
Empiria Consultores -6.4 3.4 -22.4 11.5 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
FIEL -7.0 2.0 -28.0 4.0
Fitch Solutions -5.4 5.9 -15.1 5.0
Fundación Capital -7.4 3.2 -22.3 14.7 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs -5.9 2.1 -14.8 3.1
HSBC -10.4 3.0 -15.0 2.0 4
Invecq Consulting -6.3 - -22.0 -
LCG -7.6 - -18.0 -
Moody's Analytics -4.5 2.9 -13.3 5.2
OJF & Asociados -5.8 7.4 -25.6 0.5 0
Oxford Economics -7.7 3.4 -18.3 1.1
Quantum Finanzas -3.5 1.5 -12.0 3.3
S&P Global -8.0 3.5 - -
Société Générale -2.7 0.7 -14.1 -1.7 -4
Torino Capital -7.8 3.7 -17.0 9.4
UBS -5.1 3.0 -11.6 4.5 2020 2021
Summary
Minimum -11.0 0.5 -28.0 -1.7 -8
Maximum -2.7 7.4 -9.1 15.7 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Median -6.2 3.2 -16.2 4.5

Consensus -6.3 3.2 -17.7 5.8
8 | Investment | variation in %
History
30 days ago -1.8 2.1 -7.6 3.6 40
60 days ago -2.0 2.1 -6.7 3.9
90 days ago -2.2 2.0 -7.3 4.3
20
-20
Argentina
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
9 | Investment | evol. of forecasts
10
Notes and sources

-10
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -20
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Real Sector | Additional Forecasts
10 | Industry | variation in % Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance
18
Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance
Argentina variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
12 ABECEB -7.9 - 13.0 10.0 -4.1 -2.4
Analytica Consultora - - - - -4.3 -
6 Banco de Galicia -3.5 - 11.0 - -5.2 -
Capital Economics - - 15.0 12.0 -4.0 -4.0
Credit Suisse - - - - -5.4 -4.4
0
DuckerFrontier -5.5 3.1 12.7 11.9 - -
Eco Go - - 13.3 - -4.4 -
-6 Ecolatina - - 12.0 11.5 -6.1 -4.0
Econométrica - - - - -7.5 -
Econviews - - 12.5 10.8 -6.7 -3.1
-12
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 EIU -3.9 4.0 13.2 13.1 -6.1 -3.5
Empiria Consultores -5.0 3.0 13.7 12.0 -6.5 -6.5
FIEL - - 12.5 13.5 -6.5 -5.0
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Fitch Solutions - - 11.5 10.5 -6.7 -5.5
Fundación Capital -6.8 3.9 - - -5.0 -
4
Goldman Sachs - - - - -7.5 -4.5
HSBC -10.8 3.6 - - - -
Invecq Consulting -8.0 - 12.5 - -6.5 -
Itaú Unibanco - - 11.5 11.0 -5.9 -5.2
0 LCG -8.5 - 11.8 - -5.0 -
Moody's Analytics -3.3 2.2 11.1 10.4 - -
OJF & Asociados - - - - -4.1 -3.1
Oxford Economics -5.4 3.4 11.1 10.2 -4.7 -3.8
-4 Quantum Finanzas -7.8 4.3 11.8 11.1 -5.1 -2.0
S&P Global - - 12.7 11.0 - -
Société Générale - - 12.0 12.6 -4.6 -4.4
2020 2021
Torino Capital - - 10.8 10.7 -5.5 -7.1
-8 UBS -5.0 2.0 12.0 12.0 -7.3 -7.3
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Summary
Minimum -10.8 2.0 10.8 10.0 -7.5 -7.3
Maximum -3.3 4.3 15.0 13.5 -4.0 -2.0
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop.
Median -5.5 3.4 12.0 11.1 -5.4 -4.4
25
Consensus -6.3 3.3 12.3 11.4 -5.6 -4.5
Argentina History
Latin America 30 days ago -2.0 2.4 10.9 10.2 -3.6 -3.1
20
60 days ago -1.9 2.4 10.9 10.3 -3.5 -3.1
90 days ago -2.3 2.2 11.1 10.6 -3.5 -3.0
15
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
13 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
-5 All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos) and the
Ministry of Economy (MECON, Ministerio de Economía y Producción). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
Argentina 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INDEC.
Latin America 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-10 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INDEC.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: MECON.

Monetary Sector | Inflation
Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

Consumer Prices Consumer Prices 60
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Argentina
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 Latin America

45
ABECEB 37.3 32.3 41.9 37.5
Analytica Consultora 37.7 - 44.4 -
Banco de Galicia 44.0 - 46.9 - 30
Banco Supervielle 38.7 32.6 44.3 38.5
C&T Asesores - - 42.9 -
15
Capital Economics - - 45.0 35.0
Credit Suisse 40.7 34.5 47.2 38.9
DuckerFrontier - - 47.0 33.7 0
Eco Go 45.0 - 47.3 -
Ecolatina 49.0 40.0 49.6 48.8 -15
Econométrica 62.3 - 55.2 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Econviews 50.0 45.0 50.1 50.5
EIU 34.0 26.1 43.7 29.0
Empiria Consultores 48.0 29.8 50.6 39.4 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
FIEL 38.7 60.0 43.6 52.2
70
Fitch Solutions 36.8 29.6 45.2 32.7 Argentina
Fundación Capital 43.0 39.5 46.3 45.7 Latin America
Goldman Sachs 35.0 27.8 40.8 34.7 56
HSBC 35.0 27.0 41.2 32.1
Invecq Consulting 41.0 - 48.0 -
42
Itaú Unibanco 35.0 45.0 - -
JPMorgan 48.2 - 50.2 -
Julius Baer - - 47.5 36.0 28
Kiel Institute - - 50.0 40.0
LCG 47.4 - 48.0 - 14
Moody's Analytics 44.1 40.7 48.6 42.6
OJF & Asociados 60.1 40.0 54.7 41.6
Oxford Economics 40.6 30.1 45.8 35.0 0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Quantum Finanzas - - 45.0 36.0
S&P Global 40.0 30.0 47.0 33.0
Scotiabank 45.7 46.8 - -
16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Société Générale - - 38.0 24.1
Torino Capital 39.3 39.0 44.2 38.0 80
UBS 41.6 31.4 46.1 37.5 Maximum
Summary Consensus
Minimum
Minimum 34.0 26.1 38.0 24.1 60
Maximum 62.3 60.0 55.2 52.2
Median 41.0 33.6 46.6 37.5
Consensus 42.9 36.4 46.4 38.0 40
History
30 days ago 40.2 31.9 46.9 35.1
60 days ago 41.6 32.7 48.3 35.3 20
90 days ago 41.9 32.4 48.4 35.1
0

80
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
60
Notes and sources
40
Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de
Estadísticas y Censos) and from the government of the autonomous city of Buenos Aires (Gobierno de la ciudad
autónoma de Buenos Aires). Inflation data from December 2017 and onward refers to national inflation and is
sourced from the National Statistical Institute (INDEC). Prior to December 2017, historical data refers to Buenos 20
Aires inflation.
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop).

15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index in % (eop). 0
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
17 Inflation, evolution of 2021 eop forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate
18 | Interest Rate | 2005 - 2024 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Argentina
Argentina ABECEB 30.00 28.00
Latin America
Latin America Analytica Consultora 32.70 -
Banco de Galicia 36.00 -
40 60 Banco Supervielle 38.27 28.09
Credit Suisse 35.00 30.00
Eco Go 37.00 -
Ecolatina 32.50 26.00
20 30 Econviews 38.00 35.00
Empiria Consultores 33.25 26.05
Fitch Solutions 34.00 28.00
Fundación Capital 32.00 25.00
0 0 HSBC 25.00 19.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Invecq Consulting 38.00 -
Itaú Unibanco 30.00 30.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst LCG 35.00 -
OJF & Asociados 34.00 -
80 80
Maximum Maximum Oxford Economics 30.00 22.26
Consensus Consensus Quantum Finanzas 32.00 35.00
Minimum Minimum Scotiabank 36.00 40.00
60 60
Société Générale 30.50 -
UBS 30.00 30.00
Summary
40 40
Minimum 25.00 19.00
Maximum 38.27 40.00
Median 33.25 28.04
20 20
Consensus 33.30 28.74
History
30 days ago 32.38 26.27
0 0 60 days ago 36.69 30.16
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
90 days ago 37.84 30.18
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution
60%
40%
20%
0%
<15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 >50.0
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators
are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary sector data
are from the The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA, Banco Central de la República
Argentina). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest Rate, 7-day LELIQ rate from 2005 to 2024 in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, 7-day LELIQ rate in % (eop).
20 Interest rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
22 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast
interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists.

Monetary Sector | Exchange Rate
23 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | ARS per USD Exchange Rate | ARS per USD
ABECEB 83.81 108.97
100 Analytica Consultora 80.63 -
150 Banco de Galicia 86.83 -
Banco Supervielle 83.25 106.02
75 C&T Asesores 81.25 -
100 Capital Economics 90.00 115.00
50 Credit Suisse 71.59 85.60
Eco Go 86.00 -
50 Ecolatina 95.72 120.63
25
Econométrica 89.84 -
Econviews 95.00 132.00
0 0 EIU 74.97 84.37
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Empiria Consultores 84.77 104.97
FIEL 86.61 125.98
25 | ARS per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | ARS per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst
Fundación Capital 90.00 110.00
140 150
Goldman Sachs 95.00 102.00
Maximum Maximum HSBC 100.00 140.00
Consensus Consensus Invecq Consulting 82.00 -
Minimum Minimum
105 110 JPMorgan 82.00 -
LCG 88.27 -
Moody's Analytics 79.38 102.01
OJF & Asociados 90.96 99.32
70 70 Oxford Economics 79.93 101.68
Quantum Finanzas 74.00 91.00
S&P Global 85.00 95.00
Scotiabank 83.10 93.10
35 30 Standard Chartered 80.00 86.20
Torino Capital 91.84 123.76
UBS 84.00 100.00
27 | ARS per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution Summary
Minimum 71.59 84.37
60% Maximum 100.00 140.00
Median 84.77 102.01
History
40% 30 days ago 78.82 98.67
60 days ago 79.93 99.95
90 days ago 79.98 99.05
20%
0%
<50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 >120.0
Notes and sources
are based on both end-of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary sector data are
from Refinitiv. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
23 Exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, ARS per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 2020 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast

External Sector | Current Account and Trade Balance
Current Account and Trade Balance 28 | Current Account | % of GDP

Current Account Trade Balance 12
% of GDP USD bn
Argentina
ABECEB 0.7 0.3 15.2 13.7
Analytica Consultora -1.0 - 17.0 - 6
Banco de Galicia 1.7 - 21.3 -
Capital Economics -2.5 -3.0 - -
Credit Suisse -0.7 0.3 - -
Eco Go 1.1 - 16.3 - 0
Ecolatina 0.2 -0.4 18.0 18.2
Econométrica 1.9 - 17.0 -
Econviews 0.5 0.7 12.0 12.3
EIU 0.4 -0.2 20.0 16.0 -6
Empiria Consultores 1.7 0.5 12.0 9.3 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
FIEL 0.7 0.0 17.0 13.0
Fitch Solutions 0.0 -1.1 15.5 8.2
Fundación Capital 1.0 0.7 20.6 16.0 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Goldman Sachs 1.7 2.3 24.2 27.3
HSBC 2.5 2.2 - - 1
Invecq Consulting 1.2 - 20.0 -
2020 2021
JPMorgan 0.9 - - -
LCG -0.6 - 19.5 - 0
Moody's Analytics 0.6 -1.0 - -
OJF & Asociados 2.5 2.2 16.4 17.8
Oxford Economics 0.1 0.1 21.4 25.8 -1
Quantum Finanzas -0.2 -0.6 15.0 8.0
Société Générale 1.0 1.3 - -
Standard Chartered -0.6 -1.0 - - -2
Torino Capital -1.8 -1.8 17.9 17.0
UBS -0.8 -1.0 15.0 15.0
Summary -3
Minimum -2.5 -3.0 12.0 8.0 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Maximum 2.5 2.3 24.2 27.3
Median 0.6 0.1 17.0 15.5
30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
Consensus 0.5 0.0 17.6 15.6
History 100
30 days ago 0.1 -0.3 17.9 15.8
60 days ago 0.0 -0.4 18.0 15.7
75
90 days ago 0.0 -0.3 17.7 15.8
50
25
0
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
-25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
31 | Trade Balance | evol. of forecasts
20
16
12
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes 8
Venezuela. All external sector data are from National Statistical Institute (INDEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD billions. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
31 Trade balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Exports and Imports
Exports and Imports 32 | Exports | variation in %

Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 60.7 61.9 45.4 48.1 20
Analytica Consultora 61.3 - 44.3 -
Banco de Galicia 63.1 - 41.8 -
Eco Go 63.7 - 47.4 - 0
Ecolatina 60.2 64.6 42.1 46.4
Econométrica 59.0 - 42.0 -
Econviews 56.3 62.1 44.3 49.7 -20
EIU 58.5 59.2 38.5 43.1
Argentina
Empiria Consultores 59.0 63.0 47.0 53.7
Latin America
FIEL 58.0 60.0 41.0 47.0 -40
Fitch Solutions 56.0 58.8 40.5 50.6 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fundación Capital 61.4 65.0 40.9 49.0
Goldman Sachs 57.4 61.5 33.2 34.2
Invecq Consulting 62.0 - 42.1 - 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
LCG 65.7 - 46.2 -
OJF & Asociados 63.2 67.5 46.8 49.7 80
Oxford Economics 58.9 70.5 37.5 44.7
Quantum Finanzas 59.0 64.0 44.0 56.0
Torino Capital 65.7 69.1 47.8 52.1 75
UBS 56.7 61.8 41.8 46.8
Summary
Minimum 56.0 58.8 33.2 34.2 70
Maximum 65.7 70.5 47.8 56.0
Median 59.6 62.5 42.1 48.6
Consensus 60.3 63.5 42.7 47.9 65
History 2020 2021
30 days ago 66.1 68.2 48.2 52.4
60 days ago 66.7 68.7 48.7 53.1 60
90 days ago 66.6 69.1 48.9 53.3 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
34 | Imports | variation in %
100
50
-50
Argentina
Latin America
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
35 | Imports | evol. of forecasts
75
65
55
Notes and sources
y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021
32 Exports, annual variation in %.
33 Exports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 35
34 Imports, annual variation in %. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
35 Imports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

External Sector | Additional forecasts
International Reserves and External Debt 36 | Int. Reserves | months of imports

Int. Reserves External Debt 18
USD bn USD bn
ABECEB 41.8 43.3 - -
Banco de Galicia 40.0 - - - 12
Credit Suisse 25.5 12.8 - -
Eco Go 37.3 - - -
Ecolatina 39.2 39.9 - -
Econométrica 45.0 - - - 6
Econviews 47.0 54.0 - -
EIU 35.3 42.1 257 267 Argentina
Empiria Consultores 50.0 49.0 - -
Latin America
FIEL - - 279 280 0
Fitch Solutions 46.0 46.5 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC - - 261 248
Invecq Consulting - - 275 -
JPMorgan 46.7 - 287 - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
LCG 40.0 - - -
Moody's Analytics 45.7 54.0 - - 90
Quantum Finanzas 47.0 50.0 - -
Torino Capital 44.8 44.1 - -
UBS 40.0 40.0 280 263
Summary 70
Minimum 25.5 12.8 257 248
Maximum 50.0 54.0 287 280
Median 43.3 44.1 277 265
Consensus 42.0 43.3 273 265 50
History
30 days ago 43.9 46.1 278 279
2020 2021
60 days ago 45.3 46.7 278 278
90 days ago 45.3 48.1 275 276 30
38 | External Debt | % of GDP
200
Argentina
Latin America
150
100
50
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
39 | External Debt | evol. of forecasts
350
310
Notes and sources

270
36 International reserves, months of imports.
37 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 230
38 External debt as % of GDP. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
39 External debt, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Argentina in the Region

Official name: Argentine Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Buenos Aires (15.1 m)
Other cities: Córdoba (1.6 m)
Argentina
Rosario (1.4 m) 7.5% Argentina
8.6%
Area (km2): 2,780,400
Population (million, 2019 est.): 45.1 Other Other
18.7%
22.9%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 16.2
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.9
Chile
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.8 Brazil
5.5%
Peru
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 0.9 5.4% 34.9%
Colombia Brazil
6.4% 36.1%
Language: Spanish Colombia
Measures: Metric system 8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico

Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2018)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 22.0 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 132 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 75.8
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 19.1 Agriculture Net Exports
80 90
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,157 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 3,868
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 138
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 125 40 Other Industry 30
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 678
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 752 20 0 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 200 Consumption
0 -30
Transportation (2018)
Airports: 1,138
Railways (km): 36,917
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 281,290
Waterways (km): 11,000 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Buenos Aires, Bahía Blanca
Other U.S.A. Other U.S.A.

Political Data 11.9% 5.5%

11.2%

11.2%

EU-27
President: Alberto Fernández MENA 18.1%
Other EU-27
8.8%
Last elections: 27 October 2019 12.6%
Chile
Next elections: 2023 5.1% Exports
Brazil
25.1% Imports Germany
Central Bank President: Miguel Ángel Pesce Other Asia
ex-Japan
5.3%

11.4% Other Asia
ex-Japan
Brazil 6.9%
18.8%
China
7.6% Other China
Other
LatAm LatAm 16.1%
11.6%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 12.7%
Agency Rating Outlook

Moody’s: Ca NEG
S&P Global Ratings: SD N/A Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: C N/A
Other Mineral Other

Strengths Weaknesses 8.5%
Fuels 7.3%
9.2%
• Well educated labor force • High fiscal deficit

Manufact.
• Rich in natural resources • Vulnerability to external shocks Products
• Financial support from the IMF • High inflation Exports 28.3%

Imports
Food
63.3%

Manufact.
Products
83.5%
.

FOCUSECONOMICS Brazil April 2020
Brazil
Outlook worsens
Brazil
• The economy is now in the grips of the Covid-19 pandemic. In mid-

March patches of the country implemented social distancing measures,
while transport and tourism have been severely curtailed. Containment
measures are already crippling the services sector as well as the
manufacturing, automotive, and tourism sectors. Agricultural production—
roughly a quarter of GDP—should however be relatively resilient to the
economic fallout as food supply is deemed an essential activity. Available
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages data confirms the significant economic shock: Preliminary survey data
for April showed both business and consumer sentiment plunged to
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 207 211 215 survey-record lows and the March manufacturing and services PMIs
GDP (USD bn): 1,916 1,672 1,935 fell sharply. Exacerbating matters, the policy response has been largely
GDP per capita (USD): 9,262 7,914 8,989 uncoordinated as the virus has elevated tensions between the executive
GDP growth (%): -0.2 0.3 2.6
and legislative branches as well as between Bolsonaro’s administration
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -7.9 -7.5 -5.7
Public Debt (% of GDP): 73.4 82.4 88.1 and state governments over the health response.
Inflation (%): 5.3 3.6 3.6
Current Account (% of GDP): -1.4 -2.7 -2.7 • The economy is now expected to contract this year as containment
External Debt (% of GDP): 16.8 19.8 18.2
Lindsey Ice measures stifle consumer spending, businesses lay off workers and delay
Economist investment and frail global trade depresses exports. Fiscal and monetary
stimulus should avert a deeper economic collapse, however. The outlook
hinges on the extent of the economic shock and also the pace of recovery.
FocusEconomics analysts project the economy will contract 3.2% in 2020,
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts which is down 5.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before
8
4 growing 3.1% in 2021.
4 2
• Inflation eased to 3.3% in March from 4.0% in February, falling below
the Central Bank’s target of 4.0% for the end of 2020. Inflation should be
0 0
lower this year compared to last as declining economic activity and labor
-4 -2
market slack offset upside pressure from looser monetary conditions and
2020 2021
a weak real. Our panel sees inflation ending 2020 at 2.9% and 2021 at
-8 -4 3.6%.

2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. • The Central Bank cut the SELIC rate to 3.75% from 4.25% at its 17–
18 March meeting to cushion the economy from deteriorating financial
conditions and a bleaker outlook. A majority of panelists now see the
Bank unwinding its policy further this year. The severity of the domestic
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts outbreak and a faltering global economy could prompt COPOM to slash
9 4.4 rates at its 5–6 May meeting. Focus Economics Consensus panelists
project the SELIC rate to end 2020 at 3.11% and 2021 at 4.23%.
4.1
6
3.8
• The real plunged to a new record low of 5.35 per USD on 3 April before
3.5 recovering slightly and trading at 5.24 per USD on 17 April, which marked
3
a 4.3% month-on-month depreciation. Capital outflows, dismal economic
Brazil 3.2

data, and shaky commodity markets weighed on the currency. This year,
0 2.9 the real is projected to remain very weak. Our panel sees the real ending
2020 at 4.79 per USD and 2021 at 4.51 per USD.

FISCAL | Government announces war budget to combat coronavirus

economic fallout
In early April, the Brazilian government announced it would create a “war
budget” to tackle the domestic economic fallout from the global coronavirus
pandemic. The plan would separate any emergency Covid-19 spending from
the government’s federal budget and not be held to traditional fiscal laws,
reducing budgetary constraints. The Lower House of Congress approved the
measures on 4 April; however, the first round of voting in the Senate failed on
15 April and the bill will have to return to the Lower House after the Senate’s
approval for a second round of voting on amendments made by the Senate.
Investors and credit ratings agencies will be closely monitoring the impact on
the public accounts, which could lead to a ratings downgrade.
Although the exact nominal value of the budget has not been confirmed,
authorities estimated total measures could amount to BRL 600–800 billion,
which would equate to about 6–10% of GDP. Moreover, the bill would enable
the Central Bank to purchase bonds in the secondary market to stabilize
financial markets—marking a transition towards quantitative easing. The new
budget should provide some relief to the most-affected sectors and individuals,
but will likely not be enough to avert the looming recession.
Gross Public Debt & Fiscal Balance | in % of GDP The introduction of the extraordinary emergency budget comes after the
81 -5
government voted to abandon its fiscal deficit target of around 5.5% of GDP
Gross Public Debt (left scale) for 2020 and invoked an escape clause on the constitutional spending cap.
Fiscal Balance (right scale)
Authorities have already announced a series of response measures totaling
78 -6 approximately 6.5% of GDP, including the expansion of the “Bolsa Familia”
program, which is targeted at Brazil’s poorest families; an advance payment of
% %
social benefits; financial assistance for states and municipalities; and certain
75 -7 tax deferrals. That said, the total amount of new spending will be lower as
some measures consist of guaranteed loans and credit lines.
72
-8
The government has little policy space to maneuver without derailing progress
made on fiscal consolidation in recent years. Brazil’s public debt remains one
Note: Gross public debt and fiscal balance in % of GDP.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil. of the highest among emerging market economies. A fall in government tax
revenues amid the economic slump and low global oil prices weighing on
royalty proceeds will exacerbate the deterioration in Brazil’s fiscal position this
year. Moreover, whether the government will recommit to fiscal austerity and
the reform agenda when the pandemic dissipates is an added uncertainty. If
Brazil’s fiscal performance suffers well beyond the crisis, its credit ratings will
likely get downgraded. In fact, on 6 April S&P revised its credit rating outlook
for the country from positive to stable largely on growing fiscal risks.
Commenting on the fiscal trajectory, economists at Santander noted:
“We assume that this year’s (large) fiscal expansion will be temporary and
focused on the core of the problem, keeping the fiscal consolidation framework
in place (mainly the constitutional spending cap). In our view, the more intact
the fiscal framework, the greater the odds of a more consistent recovery of the
Brazilian economy after the Covid-19 crisis […] Nonetheless, we recognize
that the fiscal risks have increased recently, as we believe the likelihood of
new structural reforms is dwindling.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the fiscal deficit

widening to 10.3% of GDP in 2020, which is down 4.9 percentage points from
last month’s estimate. In 2021, the panel sees the fiscal deficit narrowing to
6.3% of GDP.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity increases in February

Economic activity increased 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted month-on-month
Monthly Indicator for Economic Activity | variation in % terms in February, up from January’s downwardly revised flat reading
5.0 2.0 (previously reported: +0.2% month-on-month). The result surpassed market
expectations of 0.2% growth.
2.5 1.0
% % On an annual basis, growth in economic activity rose to 0.6% in February, up

0.0 0.0
from January’s 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, annual average growth in economic
activity edged down to 0.7% from 0.8%.
-2.5 -1.0
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale) Looking ahead, the economy is expected to take a significant hit from the
Annual average (right scale)
-5.0 -2.0
pandemic and containment measures put in place in March to combat the
outbreak in Brazil. Nevertheless, fiscal and monetary stimulus should cushion
the blow somewhat.
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted IBC-Br (Indice de
Atividade Economica do Banco Central) and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil.
The LatinFocus panel of analysts sees the economy contracting 3.2% in 2020,
which is down 5.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the
panel projects the economy will rebound and grow 3.1%.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial output growth moderates in February

Industrial production increased 0.5% on a month-on-month seasonally-
adjusted basis in February, moderating from January’s revised 1.2% rise
(previously reported: +0.9% month-on-month), surpassing market analysts’
expectations of a 0.4% decline in February.
Softer growth in February was driven by shrinking production of consumer

Industrial Production | variation in % goods, both for durable and non-durable goods. Moreover, capital goods
14 4
output weakened sharply and intermediate goods production lost some
Month-on-month s.a. (left scale) steam. Industrial output increased in 15 of the 26 sectors surveyed, led by the
Annual average (right scale)
automotive and chemical production sectors.
7 2
In annual terms, industrial production dipped 0.4% in February, although fell at

0 0
a weaker pace than the 0.9% decline in January. Meanwhile, annual average
% %
industrial output fell 1.2% in February, down from 1.0% drop in January,
-7 -2
signaling a worsening trend in the industrial sector.
-14 -4 Looking ahead, while the industrial sector showed some resilience in February,
data for March is expected to show a deeper effect of the coronavirus crisis
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted industrial production and
annual average growth rate in %. on Brazilian factory output. Ford Motor Company and General Motors were
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and
FocusEconomics calculations.
forced to shut down production in mid-March, while measures to control the
pandemic are hampering supply chains.
The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus

Consensus Forecast see industrial production falling 4.2% in 2020, which is
down 6.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2021, industrial
output is projected to grow 4.0%.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI plunges in March

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by IHS
Markit, fell to 48.4 in March from 52.3 in February, marking the sharpest
deterioration in operating conditions since February 2017. Consequently, the
PMI fell below the 50-threshold signaling an overall worsening in business
conditions in the manufacturing sector over the previous month.
The fight to control the Covid-19 pandemic, both globally and domestically,
weighed heavily on demand and production in March. New business inflows

Purchasing Managers’ Index fell at the steepest rate in over three years, with factory shutdowns and falling
56
customer demand causing clients to cancel orders. Export orders shrank at a
marked rate also due to factory closures and delayed projects abroad. Given
anemic demand, Covid-19 emergency measures, and concerns over the
53 business outlook, manufacturers reduced production and laid off workers at
the strongest rate in over three years.
50 On the supply-side, ongoing disruptions to global supply chains as a result of

the pandemic lead supplier delivery times to lengthen to the greatest extent
on record. This resulted in the first rise in manufacturers’ outstanding business
47
since the truck drivers’ protests in June 2018.
Note: Markit Brazil Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). A reading

above 50 indicates an overall increase compared to the previous month, while a On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated sharply in March to the
value below 50 indicates an overall decrease.
Source: IHS Markit. highest level since October 2018, largely due to a stronger U.S. dollar pushing
up input prices. In response, good producers raised output prices at the
sharpest rate in a year and a half.
REAL SECTOR | Retail sales growth hits over one-year high in February
Retail sales, excluding cars and construction, grew 1.2% in seasonally-
Retail Sales | variation in % adjusted month-on-month terms in February, contrasting January’s revised
4
1.4% decline (previously reported: -1.0% month-on-month). February’s print
Month-on-month s.a. beat out market analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% fall in retail sales.
Annual average
2
February’s outturn was driven by a surge in clothing and footwear; furniture
% and household appliances; and supermarket, food, beverage and tobacco
0
sales. On the other hand, sales of fuel and lubricants, and books and other
stationery goods fell in the month.
-2
On an annual basis, retail sales growth jumped to an almost two-year high of

-4 4.7% in February from 1.4% in January. Meanwhile, annual average growth in
retail sales ticked up to 1.9% in February from 1.8% in January.
Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted retail sales and annual
average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see retail sales declining 1.9%
in 2020, which is down 4.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In
2021, the panel sees retail sales recovering and growing 3.4%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment plummets to historic low in April

According to an extraordinary preliminary release for April, consumer
Consumer Confidence Index confidence plunged to the lowest level on record. Based on data collected
120
through 13 April, the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index
published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) fell to 58.5 points in April
100
from 97.5 points in March. Consequently, the index remained mired below the
100-point threshold separating consumer pessimism from optimism.
80
The deterioration in consumer sentiment was driven by households’
significantly more negative assessment of future conditions and gloomier view
60
on the current economic situation.
40
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 The special data preview is a canary in the coal mine of the impact of the
pandemic on private consumption. Tanking consumer confidence comes as
Note: Index of consumer sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point
threshold represents the point above which consumers expect economic large swathes of Brazil are now in lockdown to mitigate the growing outbreak.
conditions to improve.
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.
A more comprehensive figure for April will be released on 27 April.

Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report see private consumption
contracting 3.2% in 2020, which is down 5.7 percentage points from last
month’s estimate. For 2021, the panel sees private consumption rising 3.1%.
OUTLOOK | Preliminary survey data shows business confidence

tumbled to series-record low in first half of April
An extraordinary preview of April survey data from the Getulio Vargas
Foundation’s (FGV, Fundaçao Getúlio Vargas), revealed business sentiment
Business Confidence Index
in Brazil’s industrial sector sank to a record low of 58.5 in April from March’s
120
revised 97.5 (previously reported: 98.2). The print is based on data collected
until 13 April. Consequently, the index is now entrenched below the 100-point
100
threshold that separates pessimism for optimism among businesses in the
Brazilian industrial sector.
80
The alarming decline in business confidence in April suggests the pandemic

60
has already begun to choke off business activity and thus investment and
could keep sentiment in the industrial sector depressed throughout H1.
40
Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
Business sentiment for the full month of April will be released on 29 April.
Note: Index of business sentiment (seasonally adjusted). The 100-point threshold
represents the point above which businesses expect economic conditions to
improve. Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see fixed
Source: Getulio Vargas Foundation.
investment plunging 7.0% in 2020, which is down 10.7 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. In 2021, participants project fixed investment to rebound
and record a 4.7% expansion.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation decelerates in March; provides further

space for another rate cut
Consumer prices increased 0.07% over the prior month in March, down from
Inflation | Consumer Price Index the 0.25% uptick in February. The reading outstripped market expectations of
a 0.15% rise and was largely due to lower prices for transportation; household
1.5 6.0
items; and personal expenses.
1.0 4.0
Inflation fell to 3.3% in March from 4.0% in February, coming in below the
Central Bank’s target of 4.0% for the end of 2020. Annual average inflation
0.5 2.0 inched down to 3.7% from 3.8%.
% %
0.0 0.0 Looking ahead, inflation is likely to ease further, particularly as the coronavirus
Month-on-month (left scale) outbreak deters economic activity, oil prices have been depressed, and despite
-0.5
-2.0
the marked depreciation in the Brazilian real thus far this year. Contained
inflationary pressures leave the door open for additional rate cuts by the
Note: Annual and monthly var. of IPCA consumer price index in %. Central Bank in its upcoming meeting on 5–6 May.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
FocusEconomics participants see inflation closing 2020 at 2.9%, which is

down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel
projects inflation to end the year at 3.6%.
MONETARY SECTOR | COPOM slashes key interest rate to new record

low in March
At its 17–18 March meeting, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy
Committee (COPOM) unanimously voted to cut the benchmark SELIC rate
from 4.25% to a new historic low of 3.75%. COPOM’s sixth consecutive rate cut
came as the Bank braces for a deteriorating outlook for the Brazilian economy
this year amid the fast-spreading coronavirus. The virus has sparked marked
volatility in asset prices and commodity markets are taking a beating due to
the pandemic as well as the Saudi Arabia-Russia oil price war.

Turning to inflation, COPOM expects inflation to come in around 3.1% at the

end of 2020 and 3.6% for the end of 2021, based on market expectations.
This is well below the Bank’s inflation target for 2020 of 4.0%. The Committee
continues to view the risks to the inflation outlook as fairly balanced: Downward
pressures will stem from economic slack and the pandemic’s hit on demand,
whereas upward price pressures could arise due to the Bank’s further rate
15
cuts, delayed reforms increasing risk premium, and the deteriorating external
environment.
12
In its forward guidance, the Bank struck a much more dovish tone than in its
9 February meeting when the Bank had suggested an end to its easing cycle. In
% its March communiqué, the Committee stressed that it “will continue to deploy
6 its arsenal of monetary, exchange rate and financial stability policies to fight
the current crisis” and stated that maintaining a record-low level rate was
essential to supporting the economic recovery. However, the Bank noted that
3
Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
delayed fiscal reforms or changes to the fiscal consolidation process could
Note: SELIC target rate (Taxa SELIC meta) in %. result in a higher structural interest rate, in which case additional monetary
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil).
easing may be “counterproductive” and cause tighter financial conditions.
March’s rate cut comes as the Brazilian real passed above BRL 5.00 per
USD and the Bank has ramped up interventions to try to stymie the marked
currency depreciation. The Bank will have to tread carefully moving ahead to
balance supporting the economy with avoiding causing the currency to tank
even further.
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 5–6 May 2020.
Our panel sees the SELIC rate ending 2020 at 3.11% and 2021 at 4.23%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Depreciation pressures worsen in April

The Brazilian real continued to plunge in April, hitting a fresh low of BRL 5.35
per USD on 3 April before recovering slightly in mid-April. On 17 April, the real
traded at BRL 5.24 per USD, which marked a 4.3% depreciation over the prior
month. Moreover, the currency was down 24.8% year-on-year and 23.3%
year-to-date. Although the Central Bank has ramped up its FX interventions,
the measures have not stabilized the currency.
Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
The cards have been stacked against the Brazilian real. Financial conditions
5.5
have deteriorated sharply as investors steer toward safer assets in the wake of
5.0 the global coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, data has
begun to show the economic damage inflicted by containment measures in
4.5
certain states. Exacerbating matters, tensions between oil-producing nations
in March–April, which caused oil prices to plummet, further hit the real.
4.0
3.5 LatinFocus panelists expect the real to remain depressed this year. A stalled
economic reform agenda amid the Covid-19 policy response will weigh on
3.0
Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20
the BRL, while a pullback in demand for Brazilian commodities will also
undermine demand for the currency. Despite strong depreciation pressures,
Note: Daily spot of real (BRL) against U.S. dollar (USD). panelists now largely pencil in at least another 50 basis points in rate cuts
Source: Refinitiv.
before the end of the year. The BRL is projected to recover slightly in the
second half of the year, as the global economy is expected to begin to mend
from the Covid-19 shock. That said, risks to the FX outlook are skewed to the
downside and hinge on the extent of the domestic outbreak and shape of the
economic recovery. A further deterioration in external conditions and, in turn,
export demand poses a downside risk to the recovery.
Our panel sees the real ending 2020 at 4.79 per USD and 2021 at 4.51 per
USD.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Current account deficit widens in February

Brazil’s current account deficit totaled USD 3.9 billion in February, widening
Current Account Balance | USD billion from the USD 3.3 billion shortfall recorded in the same month of 2019, but was
0 -10
significantly less than January’s USD 11.9 billion deficit.
February’s result reflected a greater shortfall in the services account and

-4 -30 a wider primary income deficit. The primary income deficit rose as profits
and dividends were sent abroad, causing capital flight out of the country.
Meanwhile, net foreign direct investment moderated in the month, totaling
-8 -50
USD 6.0 billion (February 2019: USD 7.7 bn). The merchandise trade surplus,
however, was stable at USD 3.1 billion as a rebound in exports was offset by
Monthly current account (left scale)
12-month current account balance (right scale) a stronger recovery in imports.
-12 -70
Accordingly, the 12-month sum of the current account balance widened to

Note: Monthly and 12-month current account balance in USD billion.
Source: Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and FocusEconomics calculations. a USD 52.9 billion shortfall, which was equivalent to approximately 2.9% of
GDP, from the USD 52.3 billion deficit registered in the 12 months ending in
January.
The panel sees a current account deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2020. For 2021,
the panel also sees the deficit at 2.8% of GDP.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 203 205 207 208 210 211 213 214 215 216
GDP (USD bn) 1,796 1,800 2,063 1,885 1,839 1,489 1,689 1,828 1,935 2,044
GDP (BRL bn) 5,996 6,269 6,583 6,889 7,257 7,272 7,760 8,256 8,773 9,309
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -3.5 -3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 -3.2 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -6.3 -4.8 1.5 1.9 1.7 -3.1 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -3.2 -3.8 2.0 2.1 1.8 -3.2 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.4 0.2 -0.7 0.4 -0.4 1.4 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -13.9 -12.1 -2.6 3.9 2.2 -7.0 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 6.8 0.9 4.9 4.0 -2.5 -6.2 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -14.2 -10.3 6.7 8.3 1.1 -5.8 5.2 4.8 4.4 4.1
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -8.2 -6.4 2.5 1.0 -1.1 -4.2 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.5
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) -4.4 -6.3 2.1 2.3 1.9 -1.9 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.50 4.50 3.11 4.23 4.93 5.34 5.75
10-Year Bond Yield (%, eop) 16.49 11.42 10.21 9.24 6.81 7.45 6.80 7.36 7.70 8.05
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 3.96 3.25 3.31 3.88 4.02 4.79 4.51 4.53 4.54 4.56
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.34 3.48 3.19 3.65 3.95 4.88 4.59 4.52 4.53 4.55
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.0 -1.3 -0.7 -2.2 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -54.5 -24.2 -15.0 -41.5 -49.5 -41.1 -47.2 -49.2 -52.0 -54.8
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 191 185 218 239 225 203 216 230 242 251
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 171 138 151 181 177 165 180 195 208 220
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -15.1 -3.0 17.5 9.9 -5.8 -10.0 6.6 6.5 5.2 3.8
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -25.2 -19.8 9.6 20.2 -2.1 -7.1 9.0 8.5 7.0 5.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 64.7 74.3 68.9 78.2 78.6 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 356 365 374 375 357 340 344 347 348 349
External Debt (USD bn) 335 326 317 321 323 325 337 345 353 360
External Debt (% of GDP) 18.6 18.1 15.4 17.0 17.6 21.8 20.0 18.9 18.2 17.6
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.2 1.7 -0.5 -6.6 -3.5 -1.6 0.1 6.7 4.0 2.5
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.6 0.5 -1.4 -5.6 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.4 -0.6 -6.2 -3.7 -1.5 0.8 6.3 4.9 2.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.1 -1.1 -7.4 -3.1 -1.3 1.1 5.1 3.6 2.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -1.4 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.9 -0.4 -2.5 -12.6 -9.0 -4.1 -2.2 7.1 8.3 6.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.3 -0.6 -2.9 -2.3 -2.1 2.2 5.0 3.2 2.8
SELIC Rate (%, eop) 5.50 4.50 3.75 3.12 3.11 3.11 3.21 3.45 3.73 4.23
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 4.16 4.02 5.21 5.13 4.94 4.79 4.68 4.53 4.52 4.51
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, aop) 3.97 4.12 4.46 5.17 5.04 4.86 4.73 4.61 4.52 4.51
Monthly Data Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, ann. var. %) 1.2 -1.0 2.0 2.2 1.0 1.3 0.1 0.6 - -
Economic Activity (IBC-Br, mom var. %) -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.4 - -
Industrial Production (mom s.a. var. %) -0.2 1.2 0.3 1.0 -1.6 -0.9 1.2 0.5 - -
Markit Manufacturing PMI (50-threshold) 49.9 52.5 53.4 52.2 52.9 50.2 51.0 52.3 48.4 -
Retail Sales (mom s.a. var. %) 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -1.4 1.2 - -
Consumer Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 88.1 89.2 89.7 89.4 88.9 91.6 90.4 87.8 80.2 58.1
Business Confidence (100-pt threshold, s.a.) 95.1 95.9 95.9 95.4 96.9 99.4 100.9 101.4 97.5 58.5
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.19 0.11 -0.04 0.10 0.51 1.15 0.21 0.25 0.07 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.5 3.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.3 -
Exchange Rate (BRL per USD, eop) 3.81 4.15 4.16 4.02 4.24 4.02 4.28 4.47 5.21 -
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -9.2 -2.7 -2.7 -6.5 -2.0 -5.3 -11.9 -3.9 - -


4E Consultoria -2.3 4.0
Arazul Capital -4.6 2.0
4 Banco BV -2.5 3.0
4 Banco Fator -7.4 -2.9
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -3.1 2.8
0 Barclays Capital -3.0 3.3
BNP Paribas -4.0 4.0
0 Capital Economics -1.5 2.3
-4 Citigroup Global Mkts -1.7 -
Brazil Brazil Commerzbank -1.6 0.4
Latin America Latin America Credit Suisse -3.5 5.1
World World
-4 -8 DekaBank -0.5 1.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 DuckerFrontier -5.2 5.9
EIU -5.5 4.5
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Euromonitor Int. -0.9 2.2
Fitch Ratings -2.0 2.5
4 8 Fitch Solutions -1.9 2.0
Goldman Sachs -3.4 3.2
Haitong -2.0 3.2
0 HSBC -2.7 2.6
4 ING -3.2 2.9
Itaú Unibanco -2.5 4.7
-4 JPMorgan -3.2 2.4
Julius Baer -1.0 4.5
0 KBC -11.0 3.6
-8 Kiel Institute -4.8 5.1
Maximum Maximum
LCA Consultores -3.5 3.5
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
Moody's Analytics -6.0 3.8
-12 -4 Oxford Economics -2.7 4.3
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Petros -3.1 5.1
Pezco Economics -3.4 2.6
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution S&P Global -4.6 3.3
Santander -2.2 1.7
50% Scotiabank -3.3 2.5
Société Générale -2.0 1.6
40% Standard Chartered -1.8 3.8
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -1.4 3.6
Torino Capital -3.0 5.5
30%
UBS -2.0 3.0
Summary
20% Minimum -11.0 -2.9
Maximum -0.5 5.9
10%
Median -3.0 3.2
Consensus -3.2 3.1
History
0% 30 days ago 1.9 2.4
<-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 >2.0
60 days ago 2.2 2.5
90 days ago 2.2 2.5
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Apr. 2020) -5.3 2.9
World Bank (Apr. 2020) -5.0 1.5
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, real annual variation in %.


8
4E Consultoria -3.2 4.3 -4.8 6.9
Arazul Capital -5.0 2.0 -9.0 2.7
4
Banco BV -2.9 3.9 -6.8 4.3
Banco Fator -5.1 -2.4 -18.2 -11.7
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -3.5 2.8 -4.0 5.0
Barclays Capital -3.0 2.9 -6.0 5.0
Capital Economics -2.5 3.0 -2.0 1.0 0
Credit Suisse -2.8 5.7 -7.0 9.7
DuckerFrontier -5.8 6.4 - - Brazil
Euromonitor Int. -0.3 2.4 - - -4
Fitch Ratings -2.0 3.0 -2.1 3.3 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs -3.2 1.2 -5.3 2.4
Haitong -2.1 - -6.0 - 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
HSBC -3.7 3.8 -4.0 4.2
4
ING -2.6 2.9 -8.0 7.0
LCA Consultores -4.5 2.3 -9.9 6.5
2
Pezco Economics -3.2 2.7 -7.0 5.2
S&P Global -5.3 4.1 - -
Santander -2.7 2.3 -3.9 5.9 0
Société Générale -2.0 0.9 -6.3 3.9

Tendências Consultoria Integrada -0.8 3.6 -4.3 6.3
UBS -1.5 3.0 -20.4 4.6 -2
Summary
2020 2021
Minimum -5.8 -2.4 -20.4 -11.7
Maximum -0.3 6.7 -0.7 11.6 -4
Median -2.9 2.9 -6.0 5.0 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Consensus -3.2 3.1 -7.0 4.7
History
30 days ago 2.5 2.7 3.7 5.2 8 | Investment | variation in %
60 days ago 2.6 2.8 5.0 4.9
20
90 days ago 2.6 2.7 5.1 4.9
10
-10
Brazil
Latin America
-20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
Notes and sources
-4
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro
de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
6 Private consumption, annual variation in %. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -8


15
Brazil variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
10 4E Consultoria -9.0 9.5 13.8 13.7 -6.7 -3.5
Arazul Capital -3.0 3.0 13.4 14.2 - -
5
Banco BV -3.0 - 13.0 12.6 -10.4 -4.3
Banco Fator -3.3 0.6 - - -10.2 -10.5
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -5.5 2.5 - - - -
0 Barclays Capital -4.3 4.5 13.3 12.4 -11.4 -6.7
BNP Paribas - - - - -12.5 -4.3
-5
Credit Suisse - - 15.0 13.2 -12.5 -7.0
DuckerFrontier -9.5 6.8 14.2 11.8 - -
-10 EIU -7.0 6.5 - - -12.0 -7.1
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euromonitor Int. -1.3 1.9 - - -7.1 -
Fitch Solutions - - 12.3 11.3 -11.0 -9.9
Goldman Sachs - - 13.1 13.2 -12.1 -7.2
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Haitong -2.5 3.5 12.2 10.8 -10.4 -5.7
5.0
HSBC -3.9 2.6 12.5 11.8 -7.5 -6.2
ING -3.0 4.0 - - -11.0 -4.6
Itaú Unibanco - - 13.6 12.3 -12.0 -4.3
JPMorgan - - - - -10.5 -6.1
2.5
LCA Consultores -2.0 2.9 - - -11.0 -9.0
Moody's Analytics -7.0 7.3 13.7 12.4 - -
0.0
Petros - - - - -10.7 -3.3
Pezco Economics -2.2 2.1 13.4 13.8 -11.3 -6.0
S&P Global - - 13.3 13.0 - -
-2.5 Société Générale - - 13.5 13.3 -7.0 -6.6
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -3.5 - 12.9 12.6 -8.8 -4.4
2020 2021
UBS -3.0 3.5 12.5 12.7 -11.0 -8.0
-5.0 Summary
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Minimum -9.5 0.6 12.2 10.8 -12.5 -10.5
Maximum -1.3 9.5 15.0 14.2 -6.7 -3.3
Median -3.4 3.4 13.3 12.6 -10.7 -6.4
12 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Consensus -4.2 4.0 13.4 12.6 -10.3 -6.3
History
17
30 days ago 1.9 2.8 11.2 10.4 -5.4 -4.8
60 days ago 2.5 2.8 11.2 10.5 -5.4 -4.9
90 days ago 2.6 2.8 11.3 10.5 -5.3 -5.0
13
Brazil
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-3
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de
-9
Geografia e Estatistica) and the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Brazil LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: IBGE.
-12 11 Industrial production, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: IBGE.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCB.


Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
15
(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Brazil
4E Consultoria 2.5 3.8 3.1 3.6
Arazul Capital 2.2 3.8 2.2 3.8
10
Banco BV - - 2.5 3.3
Banco Fator 2.3 2.8 - -
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.6
Barclays Capital 2.7 3.5 3.1 3.5
BNP Paribas - - 3.2 3.2 5
Commerzbank - - 2.9 3.4
Credit Suisse 2.7 3.8 3.2 3.7
DekaBank - - 4.2 3.9 0
DuckerFrontier - - 3.2 3.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.7
Euromonitor Int. - - 3.7 3.8
Fitch Ratings 3.2 3.7 - - 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
Fitch Solutions 2.4 3.9 3.4 3.2 10
Goldman Sachs 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.8 Brazil
Haitong 2.8 3.7 3.3 3.7 Latin America
HSBC - - 3.4 3.8
8
ING 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7
JPMorgan 2.6 3.5 - -
6
Julius Baer - - 4.0 4.0
KBC - - 2.9 3.8
LCA Consultores 2.0 3.4 2.8 3.2 4
Petros 1.8 3.0 - - 2
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Pezco Economics 3.2 3.3 - -
S&P Global 3.0 4.3 3.3 3.8
Santander 2.2 3.1 - -
Scotiabank 6.3 7.1 - - 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
7
Standard Chartered - - 3.1 4.2
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 2.6 3.3 - -
UBS 2.8 3.7 3.5 3.2
Summary
Minimum 1.8 2.8 2.2 3.1 5
Maximum 6.4 7.1 6.2 4.2
Median 2.7 3.5 3.2 3.6
Consensus 2.9 3.6 3.4 3.6
History 3
30 days ago 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.8
60 days ago 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 Maximum
Consensus
90 days ago 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
Minimum
Additional Forecasts 1
IMF (Apr. 2020) 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.3 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
World Bank (Apr. 2020) - - 3.4 2.9
8
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
Notes and sources

4
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from Brazilian Institute of Geography
and Statistics (IBGE, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica). Forecasts are based on
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 2
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

4E Consultoria 3.00 5.00
Arazul Capital 3.00 3.75
12 Banco BV 2.50 3.00
20 Banco Fator 2.50 2.50
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 3.25 5.00
8 Barclays Capital 3.25 4.50
Capital Economics 3.25 3.25
4 Fitch Ratings 3.50 5.00
Brazil Brazil
Latin America Latin America Goldman Sachs 3.00 4.25
0 0 Haitong 3.25 5.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 HSBC 3.75 4.75
ING 3.25 3.75
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Itaú Unibanco 2.50 3.00
JPMorgan 3.25 -
10 10
KBC 3.00 -
LCA Consultores 3.00 4.25
8 8
Oxford Economics 3.25 3.50
Petros 2.25 2.25
Pezco Economics 3.25 3.25
6 6
S&P Global 3.25 4.00
Santander 3.00 3.50
4 4 Société Générale 3.00 -
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus Tendências Consultoria Integrada 3.75 4.50
Minimum Minimum UBS 3.00 5.50
2 2 Summary
Minimum 2.25 2.25
Maximum 3.75 6.00
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution Median 3.25 4.25
Consensus 3.11 4.23
50% History
30 days ago 3.93 5.41
40% 60 days ago 4.47 5.85
90 days ago 4.61 5.98
30%
20%
10%
0%
<2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 >3.75
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of-period indicators
are from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, SELIC rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | BRL per USD Exchange Rate | BRL per USD
5 5.5 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
4E Consultoria 4.35 4.23
5.0 Arazul Capital 5.90 5.75
4 Banco BV 5.50 5.00
Banco Fator 5.00 5.20
4.5 Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 4.50 4.30
4.0 Capital Economics 4.50 4.50
Commerzbank 4.70 -
3.5
EIU 4.32 4.18
Fitch Ratings 4.50 4.25
1 3.0 Fitch Solutions 4.75 4.76
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs 4.70 4.20
Haitong 4.50 4.20
25 | BRL per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | BRL per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst HSBC 4.90 -
ING 4.50 4.30
6 6
Maximum Maximum Itaú Unibanco 4.60 4.15
Consensus Consensus JPMorgan 5.10 -
Minimum Minimum Julius Baer 4.86 4.41
5
KBC 5.20 -
5
LCA Consultores 4.60 4.20
4
Petros 4.75 4.50
4 Pezco Economics 4.50 4.57
3 S&P Global 4.90 4.75
Santander 4.90 4.05
Standard Chartered 4.40 4.50
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 4.50 4.35
27 | BRL per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution UBS 4.50 4.30
Summary
40% Minimum 4.32 4.05
Maximum 5.90 5.75
Median 4.75 4.41
30% Consensus 4.79 4.51
History
30 days ago 4.27 4.19
20% 60 days ago 4.06 4.07
90 days ago 4.05 4.03
10%
0%
<4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20 5.40 >5.90
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, BRL per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn
4E Consultoria -2.4 -2.4 54.0 50.5 0
Arazul Capital -3.5 -3.5 30.0 15.0
Banco BV -3.1 -3.0 43.2 35.5
Banco Fator -2.5 -2.8 - -
-2
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. -2.6 -2.5 35.0 35.0
Barclays Capital -2.1 -2.3 34.9 39.8
BNP Paribas -2.5 -3.4 - -
-4
Credit Suisse -2.5 -2.0 38.4 50.8 Brazil
DekaBank -2.9 -3.1 - - Latin America
EIU -1.9 -2.0 39.2 40.3 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euromonitor Int. -3.4 -3.3 - -
Fitch Solutions -2.4 -2.7 37.6 34.2
Goldman Sachs -2.0 -2.3 46.6 45.1
Haitong -2.8 -3.0 43.0 40.0 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
HSBC -3.4 -2.9 - -
-1.0
ING -2.7 -2.4 36.0 39.0
Itaú Unibanco -2.5 -2.4 40.0 42.1
JPMorgan -2.1 -2.9 - - -1.5
LCA Consultores -2.7 -2.2 39.9 49.3
Moody's Analytics -3.7 -3.3 - -
-2.0
Oxford Economics -3.0 -3.4 26.5 23.0
Pezco Economics -2.7 -2.8 35.2 33.2
Santander -3.5 -3.0 13.2 16.5 -2.5
Société Générale -3.3 -3.5 - -
Tendências Consultoria Integrada -3.0 -3.1 45.0 43.6
-3.0
UBS -2.5 -2.5 49.4 26.5
2020 2021
Summary
Minimum -3.7 -3.5 13.2 15.0 -3.5
Maximum -1.9 -2.0 54.0 50.8 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Median -2.7 -2.8 38.8 39.4
Consensus -2.8 -2.8 38.2 36.6
History 30 | Trade Balance | USD bn
30 days ago -2.9 -2.9 35.4 33.2
400
60 days ago -3.0 -3.1 35.8 32.5 Trade Balance
90 days ago -2.8 -2.9 36.9 34.0 Exports
Imports
300
200
100
-100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
Notes and sources 45
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil) and the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC, Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). 40
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
In September 2020, the BCB updated its methodology for calculating the current account and revised historical data.
Some panelists may not yet reflect these revisions. 35
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: BCB. 2020 2021

29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
30
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: MDIC.


Exports Imports 50
USD bn USD bn Brazil
4E Consultoria 195 224 142 174
Arazul Capital 215 225 185 210 25
Banco BV 222 229 179 193
Banco MUFG Brasil S.A. 180 200 145 165
Barclays Capital 203 212 168 173
Credit Suisse 203 234 165 183
0
EIU 208 227 169 187
Fitch Solutions 224 228 187 194
Goldman Sachs 220 230 173 185
Haitong 205 230 162 190
ING 224 193 188 154 -25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Itaú Unibanco 199 222 159 180
LCA Consultores 188 228 148 178
Oxford Economics 179 185 153 162
Pezco Economics 207 223 171 189 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Santander 174 187 160 170
280
Tendências Consultoria Integrada 210 223 165 179
UBS 196 193 146 167
Summary
260
Minimum 174 185 142 154
Maximum 224 234 188 210
Median 204 224 165 180
Consensus 203 216 165 180 240
History
30 days ago 227 238 191 205
60 days ago 230 241 195 208 220
90 days ago 232 243 196 209
2020 2021
200
60
40
20
-20
Brazil
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
240
220
200
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC,
Ministerio do Desenvolvimento, Industria e Comercio Exterior). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Brazil
4E Consultoria 295 335 - - 30
Banco BV 350 350 - -
Banco Fator 346 346 - -
Barclays Capital 338 352 - - 20
Credit Suisse 340 330 - -
EIU 304 300 - -
Fitch Solutions 359 365 - -
10
Goldman Sachs 355 362 - -
Haitong 350 360 - -
HSBC - - 316 338
0
ING 342 332 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 330 - - -
LCA Consultores 343 335 326 334
Pezco Economics 363 361 - - 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
UBS 357 357 - -
410
Summary
Minimum 295 300 316 334
Maximum 363 365 334 340
390
Median 343 348 326 338
Consensus 340 344 325 337
History
370
30 days ago 355 353 328 331
60 days ago 356 358 327 330
90 days ago 359 357 331 335
350
2020 2021
330
50
Brazil
Latin America
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
425
2020 2021
400
375
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central do Brasil). Forecasts based
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

Fact Sheet
General Data Brazil in the Region

Official name: Federative Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Brazil
Capital: Brasilia (4.5m)
Other cities: Sao Paulo (21.7m)
Rio de Janeiro (13.3m)
Area (km2): 8,515,770 Other Other
22.9% 18.7%
Population (million, 2019 est.): 210 Brazil
Brazil
34.9%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 24.7 36.1%
Chile
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7 5.5%
Peru
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 74.7 5.4% Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 6.8 Argentina
6.4%
Language: Portuguese 7.5%

Argentina
8.6%
Measures: Metric system Colombia
8.4% Mexico
Time: GMT-2 to GMT-4 20.9%
Mexico
24.7%
Economic Structure
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,363
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 3,029 20 0 Private
Services
0 -30
Airports: 4,093
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2,000,000
Chief Ports: Santos, Belem, Rio de Janeiro
Other U.S.A. U.S.A.

Political Data 15.1% 13.4%
Other
18.0% 15.2%

President: Jair Bolsonaro

Argentina
Last elections: 28 October 2018 7.8% EU-27
Argentina

15.6% Other EU-27
Next elections: 2022 7.2%
Exports Imports 14.2%
Central Bank President: Roberto Oliveira Campos Neto Other

LatAm
Other
11.1% Other Asia LatAm Germany
ex-Japan 9.7%
6.6%

8.5%

Other Asia
China ex-Japan
China 18.1% 10.9%
28.5%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Moody’s: Ba2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB- Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB- Stable
Other Food Other

Mineral
6.4% 4.5%
Fuels
13.3%
• Commitment to economic • Pronounced socio-economic Food
37.0%

orthodoxy inequalities Manufact.
• Large domestic market and • Inadequate infrastructure Exports Products Imports
38.5%
diversified production creates bottleneck for economic
• Stable financial system growth
Mineral
Manufact.
• Strong foreign direct investment • Privatization and deregulation Fuels Ores & Products
7.4%
flows bolster capital account lagging Metals
11.0%
75.8%

FOCUSECONOMICS Chile April 2020
Chile
Outlook worsens
Chile
• The economy seemingly contracted for a second consecutive quarter in

Q1 2020, after a broad-based downturn in Q4 2019 prompted by October’s
protests. Although economic activity gathered momentum in January–
February, the escalation of the Covid-19 crisis in March likely erased
all gains. Amid social distancing measures, consumer and business
sentiment plummeted in March, hinting that private consumption and fixed
investment weakened at the end of the quarter. Moreover, merchandise
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages exports contracted in Q1 on falling copper prices, as the pandemic
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 hampered Chinese demand for raw materials. To curtail the economic
Population (million): 18.4 19.4 20.0 impact of the pandemic, the government announced measures totaling
GDP (USD bn): 276 264 319
USD 16.8 billion, which cover direct cash transfers, tax suspensions and
GDP growth (%): 2.3 0.7 3.3 deferrals, as well as liquidity guarantees for businesses. Although the
expenses will be partly covered through budget reallocations, the fiscal
Inflation (%): 2.8 2.9 2.9 deficit is set to skyrocket this year.
Current Account (% of GDP): -2.6 -2.6 -2.4
• Economic activity is set to contract this year, ravaged by Covid-19.
Nicolas J. Aguilar The restrictions adopted by the government will take a heavy toll on
Economist domestic activity, while a stifled global economy should result in lower
demand for Chilean exports. Moreover, the uncertainties surrounding the
upcoming constitutional process may further restrain investment ahead.
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 2.5% in 2020, which is down
8 4.0
3.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and then rebounding by
3.5% in 2021.
4 2.0
• Inflation moderated to 3.7% in March, from 3.9% in February which had

0 0.0
marked an over three-and-a-half year high. Weak demand and lower
fuel prices are largely outweighing the effects of stronger pass-through
-4 -2.0
2020 2021
inflation and cheaper financing conditions. Going forward, price pressures
-8 -4.0
are likely to moderate further. Our panel forecasts inflation to end 2020 at
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 2021 at 2.8%.
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months.
• At its monetary policy meeting on 31 March, the Central Bank slashed the
monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 0.50%, its lowest point since
2009, reflecting the need to minimize the economic challenges posed
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts
by the Covid-19. The decision was accompanied by additional liquidity
9 3.3 measures. The rate is largely expected to remain unchanged for the rest
2020 2021 of the year. FocusEconomics Consensus forecast panelists project the
rate to end 2020 at 0.49% and 2021 at 1.20%.
6 3.1
• The peso lost some further ground against the U.S. dollar in the past
3 2.9 month, as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to hamper commodity-
Chile
linked currencies. On 17 April, the CLP traded at 853 per USD, a 0.6%
Latin America depreciation from the same day last month. Going forward, most analysts
0 2.7
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb see the peso recovering from current lows thanks to a pick-up in Chinese
Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021 demand for raw materials. Our panelists project the peso to end 2020 at
821 CLP per USD and 2021 at 777 CLP per USD.

FISCAL | Government unveils ambitious stimulus to contain the impact

of Covid-19
On 19 March and 8 April, the government announced measures to combat the
economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis totaling USD 16.8 billion. From that
amount, USD 7.4 billion (about 3.0% of GDP) represent a direct fiscal cost to
the Treasury, in the form of additional expenditure in healthcare, direct cash
transfers to households, and tax suspensions and deferrals. The remaining
USD 9.4 billion comes in the form of government liquidity guarantees, which
could have a fiscal cost if triggered, and advanced tax refunds. Although the
expenses will be partly covered through budget reallocations, the government
estimates the fiscal deficit will near 8.0% of GDP this year, significantly larger
than 2019’s 2.8% of GDP.
The Covid-19 crisis further complicates the situation for Chile’s economy,
which has already been scarred by last October’s nationwide protests. While
uncertainties surrounding the referendum for a new constitution, rescheduled
to 25 October, had already dampened consumer and business sentiment,
weakening global activity owing to the pandemic is resulting in falling demand
for copper, the country’s key export, while also restraining capital inflows.
Citing the aforementioned domestic and external challenges, on 12 March
Fitch Ratings changed its outlook on Chile’s A grade rating from stable to
negative. Looking ahead, a recession this year looks inevitable, while the
uncertainty and length surrounding the constitutional process may limit the
extent of the rebound in 2021.
With regards to the fiscal prospects for Chile, Daniela Velandia, director of
research at Credicorp Capital, noted:
“We continue to expect a significant deterioration of public finances in the

upcoming years with the ongoing social crisis also playing a role. For the
particular case of 2020, we reaffirm our expectation of a fiscal deficit close
to 9% of GDP, the result of the measures adopted amid the social crisis that
started in Oct-19, the actions adopted on March 19th, and the projected
contraction of the economy this year (i.e. lower tax collection).”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts projects the fiscal deficit to reach

7.9% of GDP this year, which is down 3.6 percentage points from last month’s
forecast, before easing down to 5.6% of GDP in 2021.
REAL SECTOR | Economy contracts at sharpest pace in over a decade

in Q4 2019
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % The economy contracted 2.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, contrasting
8 the third quarter’s 3.4% expansion and marking the worst print since Q2 2009.
Mass demonstration and violent riots which began in mid-October ravaged
the economy in Q4, precipitating an economic downturn which was widely
4
expected by market analysts. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy
% contracted 4.1%, after rising 0.8% in Q3. Taking the year as a whole, GDP
0 grew 1.1% in 2019, markedly down from the 4.0% expansion recorded in
2018 and the softest expansion in a decade.
-4
Domestic activity plummeted in the fourth quarter. Household spending
contracted 3.8% (Q3: +2.9% year-on-year) on falling consumption for durable
-8
Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 goods, non-durable goods and services. Moreover, government consumption
sank 7.4%, after rising 2.7% in the previous quarter. On the upside, fixed
Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCC) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. investment dodged contraction and grew 2.7% (Q3: +5.1% yoy) thanks to
resilient construction activity.

On the external front, conditions also deteriorated in the fourth quarter.

Exports dropped 3.5% (Q3: +1.3% yoy) amid falling sales of services and
mining products. Meanwhile, imports sank 7.5% (Q3: -0.9% yoy) against
the backdrop of a plummeting peso and falling demand. Nevertheless, the
external sector contribution to overall activity rose from a quarter earlier.
Looking at the industry-level performance, the downturn was similarly broad-

based. Mining GDP contracted 2.0% year-on-year in Q4, contrasting a 1.0%
expansion in Q3. Furthermore, non-mining GDP fell 2.2% after having grown
3.7% in the previous quarter.
Prospects for this year have deteriorated since the wake of the protests
last October and the coronavirus pandemic. While fiscal concessions
should buttress private consumption, capital spending is likely to decline on
Economic Activity | variation in %
uncertainties surrounding the drafting of the new constitution. Meanwhile,
8
exports are currently expected to rebound, stifled global demand due to the
Year-on-year Annual average
coronavirus pandemic will take its toll.
4
%
In its March assessment, the Central Bank projected the economy to contract
0
between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2020, while it sees growth of between 3.8% and
4.8% for 2021. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 2.5%
-4 in 2020, down 3.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021,
they expect the economy to grow 3.5%.
-8
Economic activity picks up in February before imminent downturn in
Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh)
March
In February, the IMACEC economic activity index grew 2.7% on an annual
basis, up from January’s 1.1% increase. That said, the brief recovery seen
in the Chilean economy following October’s civil unrest is set to have come
to an end in March as the measures taken to curtail the spread of Covid-19
hammered activity.
February’s increase reflected a 10.4% expansion in the mining economy,

accelerating from January’s 2.2%. Meanwhile, the non-mining economy
registered growth of 2.0%, up from 1.5% in the month prior thanks to upbeat
activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
In month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity rose 0.6%

over the previous month in February, decelerating from January’s 1.5%
expansion.
Consumer Confidence
60
OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment plummets to an all-time low in March
as Covid-19 bites
50 The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index fell to 27.8 points in March,
from 32.7 points in February, marking the lowest print in the survey’s history.
40 Thus, the index fell deeper below the critical 50-point threshold that separates
pessimism from optimism among Chilean consumers.
30
March’s print reflected an across-the-board deterioration in all five

20 subcomponents of the index, with all of them falling deeper into pessimistic
territory. Consumers’ willingness to purchase big-ticket household items
Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia). was the most affected, amid the lockdown measures imposed to contain the
Values above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while
values below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment. spread of Covid-19. Meanwhile, their perception of the current situation of
Source: Adimark GfK.
the country fell, as well as their general economic expectations in the next 12
months. Lastly, households grew more pessimistic towards the stability of the
country in the next five years.

Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project private

consumption to fall 3.4% in 2020, which is down 4.2 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees private consumption growing
3.7%.
Business Confidence OUTLOOK | Business sentiment deteriorates in March

60
The business confidence index (IMCE), published by ICARE and the Adolfo
Ibáñez University, fell to 40.7 points in March from 43.9 points in February.
Thus, the index fell further below the crucial 50-point threshold that separates
50 pessimism from optimism among Chilean businesses.
In March, sentiment in the construction, industrial and commerce sectors

40 turned more pessimistic as the mounting challenges posed by the Covid-19
pandemic and the restrictions taken by the government to corral it weighed on
economic activity. Meanwhile, optimism in the mining sector deteriorated amid
30
falling copper prices.
Note: Business Confidence Index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza

Empresarial). Values above 50 indicate optimistic perception, below 50 indicate Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report project fixed investment
negative perception.
Source: Universidad Adolfo Ibañez / ICARE. to decline 7.5% in 2020, which is down 4.6 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2021, they project it to grow 3.1%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in March amid cheaper oil

Consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month in March, easing from
February’s 0.4% increase. According to the Statistical Institute March’s result
reflected higher prices for education and food, which more than offset lower
Inflation | Consumer Price Index prices for transport.
1.0 4
Inflation logged 3.7% in March, down from February’s 3.9%. Thus, inflation
remained within the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target band. Meanwhile, core
0.5 3
inflation fell to 2.5% from February’s 2.7%. Lastly, annual average inflation
% % crept up to 2.7%, from 2.6% in February.
0.0 2
In its March assessment, the Central Bank projected inflation to end 2020 at
3.0% and 2021 at 2.9%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see
-0.5 1
inflation ending 2020 at 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast,
and at 2.8% in 2021.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Chile National Statistical Institute (INE).
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank braces for recession and slashes
benchmark rate to over one-decade low in March
At its monetary policy meeting on 31 March, the board of the Central Bank of
Chile (BCCh) slashed the monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 0.50%,
its lowest point since 2009.The decision, which was unanimous, reflected the
Monetary Policy Rate | in %. need to minimize the economic challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic
4.0 and came on the heels of a 75-basis-point emergency cut on 16 March.
3.0 The restrictions taken domestically to contain the pandemic are set to have
pushed the economy into a severe contraction in the second half of March,
2.0
which will likely spill over into the second quarter and add downward pressure
on inflation. In turn, the Bank slashed the rate to its technical minimum and
enlarged the additional liquidity measures deployed in the previous meeting
1.0
through supplementary credit lines, more flexible collateral requirements and
expanded its bank bond purchase program from USD 4.0 billion to USD 5.5
0.0
Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 billion. The move displays a joint effort with the government to deliver stimulus
Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TPM, Tasa de Política Monetaria) in %. through both monetary and fiscal channels.
Source: Chile Central Bank (BCCh)

Looking ahead, the Bank expects to maintain the policy rate at 0.50% for a long
period of time. Inflation expectations have decreased significantly amid the fall
in activity and the steep fall in oil prices, and is now seen converging to the
3.0% target in the next two years. The current measures should minimize the
impact on financial markets, although a recession this year looks inevitable.
Reflecting on the Bank’s decision, Diego W. Pereira and Lucila Barbeito,

economists at JPMorgan, noted:
“Today, the BCCh Board didn’t hesitate in trimming the policy rate by another
50bp, to 0.5%, in a unanimous decision. We were of the idea that the Board
will be holding the rate stable, although we acknowledged it was a close call.
But the Board weighed more the macro cyclicals that call for a deep recession
(globally and domestically) and corresponding deflation pressures than the
potential financial instability risks associated with the quasi-ZIRP policy rate
amid still volatile global and particularly EM financial markets. Note that our
denomination of quasi-ZIRP is associated to the fact that BCCh considers the
0.5% policy level a ‘technical minimum’. With the BCCh pulling out all the stops
in terms of the policy rate, the forward guidance gets restricted to holding the
“very expansive monetary accommodation stance for a long period of time.””
The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 5–6 May.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the monetary policy

to end 2020 at 0.49% and 2021 at 1.20%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Copper prices fall to near four-year low in March

In March, average copper prices fell to their lowest point since July 2016 as
Covid-19 continued to rattle commodity markets. On average, prices for the
red metal logged USD 5,183 per ton (equivalent to USD 2.35 per pound),
Copper Price | USD per Mt. down from February’s average price of USD 5,688 per ton (equivalent to USD
7,500 2.58 per ton). Meanwhile, prices were 19.5% lower than in the same month
of 2019.
6,500
Copper prices plummeted amid a slump in demand for raw materials as
governments around the world imposed severe restrictions to contain Covid-19,
extinguishing economic activity in turn. Moreover, March’s historic run on the
5,500
dollar added further downward pressure on copper, in turn prompting large
mining companies to reduce output and postpone new projects. Meanwhile,
4,500
although Codelco, the world’s largest producer of copper, discarded lowering
output, on March 25 it put three projects worth up to USD 8.0 billion on hold
Note: Cash seller and settlement price. to curtail the spread of the virus. The decline in copper prices is complicating
Source: London Metal Exchange (LME).
the outlook for the Chilean miner, on the heels of a 17% decline in profits last
year due to trade war volatility.
This year, copper prices are expected to pick up on expectations that the
Covid-19 will be contained. Copper demand from China is slated to recover
in the coming months as indicated by a sharp rebound in the manufacturing
PMI in March. Nevertheless, prices are unlikely to gain significant ground
before global economic activity gets back on track. Looking further ahead,
the medium-term price outlook for copper looks bright as refined production
lags slightly behind usage, amid limited production capacity and increasing
demand for copper in new technologies such as electric vehicles and green-
energy projects.

Our panelists project copper prices to average USD 5,333 per metric ton in
2020 and USD 5,787 per metric ton in 2021.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 246 251 278 298 282 242 267 294 318 343
GDP (CLP bn) 159,553 169,537 179,756 191,266 198,441 200,449 213,090 226,404 240,616 255,792
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 2.3 1.7 1.2 3.9 1.1 -2.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.5 1.8 2.9 4.7 1.0 -3.9 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.2
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.6 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.8 -1.0 3.5 3.2 3.1 -
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.7 1.1 -3.4 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.8 7.2 4.6 4.3 -0.3 5.8 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.7 0.5 -1.1 5.0 -2.3 -5.8 5.1 4.3 3.9 3.4
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -1.1 0.9 4.6 7.9 -2.3 -10.0 7.3 5.2 3.8 2.5
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 0.7 0.0 -1.1 2.8 0.8 -2.0 2.2 - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.4 1.6 -2.9 2.3 3.3 3.5 -
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 3.50 3.50 2.50 2.75 1.75 0.49 1.20 1.86 2.50 3.14
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) 709 670 615 694 752 821 777 760 751 741
Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) 655 676 649 642 703 829 798 769 756 746
External Sector
Copper LME (USD/mt, aop) 5,509 4,871 6,172 6,527 6,008 5,333 5,787 6,027 6,267 6,507
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.4 -2.1 -1.0 -6.9 -3.5 1.1 1.1 6.7 3.7 3.1
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) 0.8 -4.1 1.2 -4.9 4.3 1.1 1.7 0.5 1.2 0.9
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.7 -3.3 -3.7 -8.7 -4.3 -0.6 2.1 6.5 4.5 4.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.9 -3.8 -2.8 -6.6 -4.8 0.0 1.6 5.1 4.6 4.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.7 -7.4 2.6 3.5 4.8 8.5 5.9 2.8 2.4 2.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.1 2.7 -3.3 -10.1 -9.1 -6.1 -1.9 4.8 4.3 4.7
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 2.5 0.5 -1.2 -3.7 -3.4 0.5 - - - -
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 4.9 -4.7 -2.4 -2.7 -1.9 0.6 - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) 2.00 1.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.57 0.92 1.05 1.20
Economic Activity (IMACEC, ann. var. %) 1.4 3.1 3.8 3.3 -3.4 -4.0 0.8 1.1 2.7 -
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -5.3 6.2 -1.1 2.8 -5.7 3.1 4.4 3.7 3.7 -
Unemployment (rolling quarters, % act. pop.) 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 - - -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 37.8 40.3 39.4 38.6 36.7 28.3 29.4 30.4 32.7 27.8
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 50.2 50.4 51.0 50.7 51.5 36.6 32.5 40.7 43.9 40.7
Copper Price (USD per mt, aop) 5,882 5,941 5,705 5,759 5,757 5,860 6,087 6,036 5,688 5,183
Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

AGPV -1.5 2.8
Barclays Capital -0.5 1.9
4 BCI -2.2 4.0
4 BICE Inversiones -2.1 3.3
BTG Pactual -2.4 3.8
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.0 -
0 CorpResearch -3.4 4.0
-4 Credicorp Capital -3.0 -
Chile Chile Credit Suisse -1.5 2.2
Latin America Latin America DekaBank -1.1 2.7
World World
-4 -8 DuckerFrontier -4.8 6.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 EIU -4.9 3.8
Euromonitor Int. -2.2 2.7
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Solutions -3.2 1.3
Fynsa -2.7 5.0
6 8 Gemines -1.8 4.5
Maximum Goldman Sachs -3.0 3.6
Consensus
HSBC -2.5 2.5
Minimum
3 6 Inversiones Security -1.5 3.5
Itaú Unibanco -1.9 4.6
JPMorgan -2.0 2.7
0 4 Julius Baer -2.0 2.0
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas -4.0 4.0
-3 2 Moody's Analytics -5.1 2.8
Maximum
Consensus
Oxford Economics -3.3 3.3
Minimum Pezco Economics -3.0 3.2
-6 0 S&P Global -3.9 4.6
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Santander -2.5 3.5
Scotiabank -2.1 2.9
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Société Générale -1.5 2.9
Standard Chartered -0.7 2.9
50%
UBS -2.5 3.9
Summary
40% Minimum -5.5 1.3
Maximum 0.0 7.0
30% Median -2.3 3.3
Consensus -2.5 3.5
History
20%
30 days ago 1.3 2.4
60 days ago 1.5 2.4
10% 90 days ago 1.7 2.5
0% Central Bank (Mar. 2020) -2.5 / -1.5 3.8 / 4.8
<-7.5 -6.0 -4.5 -3.0 -1.5 0.0 1.5 3.0 >3.0 IMF (Apr. 2020) -4.5 5.3
CAF (Apr. 2020) -2.2 3.6
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCCh, Banco
Central de Chile) and the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística).


12
Barclays Capital -1.4 2.1 -2.2 0.0 9
BCI -2.5 4.2 -8.0 3.7
BICE Inversiones -2.9 5.4 -10.7 -2.8 6
BTG Pactual -4.5 4.8 -9.4 4.6
CorpResearch -2.8 4.5 -6.0 3.5 3
Credicorp Capital -4.1 - -9.4 -

Credit Suisse -2.0 2.6 -7.0 3.0 0
DuckerFrontier -5.9 5.0 - - Chile
-3
Euromonitor Int. -2.7 2.6 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fynsa -3.2 4.5 -7.9 4.8
Gemines -0.3 4.6 -14.4 8.9 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Goldman Sachs -2.2 5.2 -9.1 1.4
4
HSBC -8.8 6.2 -11.8 3.7
Inversiones Security 0.6 3.2 -5.1 2.0
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas -4.3 5.6 -11.0 1.1
Moody's Analytics -7.1 -0.3 -4.8 4.7 2

Pezco Economics - - -5.4 3.1
S&P Global -7.1 5.3 - - 0

UBS -2.5 3.2 -8.0 4.0
Summary -2
Minimum -8.8 -0.3 -14.4 -2.8 2020 2021

Maximum 0.6 6.2 -2.2 8.9
Median -2.8 3.9 -7.9 3.5 -4
Consensus -3.4 3.7 -7.5 3.1
History
30 days ago 0.8 2.5 -2.9 1.9 8 | Investment | variation in %
60 days ago 0.9 2.5 -2.1 2.1
90 days ago 1.2 2.6 -1.3 2.3 30
Chile
Latin America
15
-15
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based on -4
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. -8

10 | Unemployment | % of active pop. Unemployment, Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
11
Unemployment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
% of active pop. % of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
BCI - - -9.0 - 36.0 -
9
BICE Inversiones 8.6 8.6 - - - -
BTG Pactual 9.0 8.3 -8.3 -6.0 33.6 38.8
Capital Economics 9.0 7.5 -7.5 -6.5 35.0 37.0
CorpResearch - - -8.0 -7.0 - -
7
Credicorp Capital 10.0 - -9.0 - 37.0 -
Credit Suisse 10.0 8.0 -7.0 -6.3 32.3 34.5
DuckerFrontier 8.6 7.7 - - - -
Chile
EIU - - -7.1 -6.1 33.0 34.5
Latin America
5
Euromonitor Int. 7.9 8.2 - - - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Fitch Solutions 8.5 7.5 -6.9 -6.3 - -
Gemines 9.3 9.4 -8.0 -5.1 34.3 37.4
Goldman Sachs - - -8.5 -4.1 36.7 39.2
11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP HSBC 10.0 8.0 -8.3 -5.6 34.4 36.7
8
Inversiones Security 10.4 9.5 -8.4 -6.5 37.3 40.0
Itaú Unibanco 9.0 8.3 - - - -
JPMorgan - - -7.0 - - -
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 10.0 10.7 -8.4 -6.6 - -
4
Moody's Analytics - - -8.7 -5.1 35.0 39.2
Oxford Economics 8.7 7.6 -6.2 -4.7 38.5 40.4
Pezco Economics - - -8.5 -3.5 32.0 31.9
0
S&P Global 9.5 8.0 - - - -
Santander 9.0 9.9 - - - -
Société Générale 8.0 7.9 - - - -
-4
UBS 9.6 8.7 -7.9 -4.5 33.8 34.7
Chile
Summary
Latin America
Minimum 7.9 7.5 -9.0 -7.0 32.0 31.9
-8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Maximum 10.4 10.7 -6.2 -3.5 38.5 40.4
Median 9.0 8.2 -8.2 -6.0 34.7 37.2
Consensus 9.2 8.5 -7.9 -5.6 34.9 37.0
12 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts History
30 days ago 8.3 7.8 -4.3 -3.7 31.1 33.2
0 60 days ago 8.3 7.7 -4.0 -3.5 30.9 32.7
90 days ago 7.9 7.3 -3.6 -3.2 30.1 32.0
-3
-6
2020 2021
-9
13 | Public Debt | % of GDP
45
30
Notes and sources

15
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and DIPRES (Dirección
de Presupuestos). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
0 11 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: DIPRES.


(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop)
AGPV 3.3 2.4 - -
Barclays Capital 2.4 2.7 - - 5
BCI 2.8 3.0 - -
BICE Inversiones 2.7 2.5 3.2 2.3
BTG Pactual 3.0 2.7 3.3 2.6
Capital Economics - - 4.0 2.3 0
CorpResearch 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.0
Credicorp Capital 3.2 - 3.6 - Chile
Credit Suisse 3.6 3.0 3.7 3.1 Latin America
DekaBank - - 2.7 2.5 -5
DuckerFrontier - - 3.7 3.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 3.4 2.9 3.5 3.0
Fitch Solutions 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.0 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
Fynsa 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.8
9
Gemines 3.8 1.9 3.9 2.4
Goldman Sachs 2.4 3.0 3.1 2.4
HSBC - - 3.8 3.5
Inversiones Security 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.0
6
JPMorgan 4.2 - 4.1 -
3
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 3.3 3.4 4.3 2.6
Oxford Economics 3.4 2.8 3.6 2.8 Chile
Pezco Economics 2.5 2.5 - - Latin America
S&P Global 3.0 3.6 3.2 3.5 0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Santander 2.6 2.9 3.1 2.8
Scotiabank - - 2.8 3.0
UBS 3.1 3.2 3.6 2.9 5
Summary
Maximum
Minimum 2.4 1.2 2.7 1.9
Consensus
Maximum 4.2 3.6 4.3 3.9
Minimum
Median 3.2 2.9 3.5 2.9 4
Consensus 3.1 2.8 3.5 2.8
History
30 days ago 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9
60 days ago 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 3
90 days ago 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9
Central Bank (Mar. 2020) 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.2
IMF (Apr. 2020) 2.5 3.0 3.4 2.9 2
CAF (Apr. 2020) 3.6 3.0 - - Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
4.0
3.0
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional 2.0
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical
Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Maximum
Forecast. Consensus
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Minimum
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1.0
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

Chile Chile
AGPV 0.50 1.50
Barclays Capital 0.50 1.50
12 12 BCI 0.50 0.75
BICE Inversiones 0.50 0.50
BTG Pactual 0.50 1.50
8 8 Capital Economics 0.25 0.25
CorpResearch 0.50 1.00
Credicorp Capital 0.50 -
4 4 Credit Suisse 0.50 2.00
Fynsa 0.50 1.00
0 0 Gemines 0.50 2.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs 0.50 2.50
HSBC 0.50 2.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst Inversiones Security 0.50 0.50
6 5 Itaú Unibanco 0.50 1.00
JPMorgan 0.50 -
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 0.50 0.50
4 Moody's Analytics 0.50 0.50
4
3
Santander 0.50 1.00
2 Société Générale 0.50 -
2 UBS 0.50 1.25
Maximum
1 Maximum Summary
Consensus Consensus Minimum 0.25 0.25
Minimum
Minimum Maximum 0.50 2.50
0 0 Median 0.50 1.13
Consensus 0.49 1.20
History
30 days ago 1.36 1.82
100%
60 days ago 1.49 1.90
90 days ago 1.45 1.94
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
<-0.5 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 >1.3
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | CLP per USD Exchange Rate | CLP per USD
AGPV 830 800
Barclays Capital 885 840
800
BCI 800 780
800 BICE Inversiones 791 769
700 BTG Pactual 830 801
Capital Economics 800 750
Credicorp Capital 810 -
600
700 Credit Suisse 850 800
EIU 825 781
500 Fitch Solutions 795 770
Fynsa 830 750
600
Gemines 790 770
400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs 800 700
HSBC 830 -
25 | CLP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | CLP per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Inversiones Security 800 750
Itaú Unibanco 830 800
950 950
Maximum Maximum JPMorgan 840 -
Consensus Consensus Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 820 789
Minimum Minimum Moody's Analytics 784 728
850 850
Oxford Economics 821 800
Pezco Economics 852 790
S&P Global 815 800
750 750
Santander 850 850
Scotiabank 790 720
Société Générale 870 -
650 650 Standard Chartered 820 775
UBS 800 770
Summary
550 550 Minimum 784 700
Maximum 885 850
Median 820 780
27 | CLP per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution Consensus 821 777
60% History
30 days ago 769 750
60 days ago 753 736
90 days ago 749 733
40%
20%
0%
<650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000 >1000
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop).
25 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 forecast during the last 18 months.


% of GDP USD bn Chile
AGPV - - 10.0 8.0 4
Barclays Capital -1.5 -3.0 13.3 11.9
BICE Inversiones -3.9 -2.4 - -
BTG Pactual 0.0 -0.4 10.0 11.1 0
CorpResearch -0.4 -0.8 6.0 7.0
Credicorp Capital 0.2 - 10.4 -
-4
Credit Suisse -1.7 -1.5 - -
DekaBank -3.2 -3.2 - -
EIU -5.4 -4.8 0.5 4.5
-8
Euromonitor Int. -3.5 -3.2 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Fitch Solutions -4.1 -3.5 4.5 6.6
Gemines -0.5 -0.4 10.3 10.1
Goldman Sachs 0.7 -0.8 12.2 8.0 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
HSBC -1.5 1.2 - -
Inversiones Security -2.2 -1.7 5.5 1.9 -1.5
Itaú Unibanco -0.5 -1.4 - - 2020 2021

JPMorgan -2.6 - - -
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas -1.2 -1.6 9.1 6.7 -1.9
Société Générale -3.5 -3.7 - - -2.3
Standard Chartered -0.8 -2.5 - -
UBS -0.9 -0.8 9.1 11.8
Summary -2.7
Minimum -5.4 -4.8 0.5 1.9
Maximum 0.7 1.2 13.3 11.9
Median -1.7 -2.3 9.1 7.5 -3.1
Consensus -2.0 -2.0 8.1 7.8 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
History
30 days ago -1.7 -1.7 8.9 8.7
60 days ago -1.7 -1.7 8.6 8.9
90 days ago -2.0 -2.0 7.1 7.3 100
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
11
2020 2021
Notes and sources

5
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de Chile). Forecasts based
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP.
2
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Chile
AGPV 64.0 68.0 54.0 60.0
Barclays Capital 58.3 59.5 45.1 47.6 30
BTG Pactual 59.3 66.4 49.3 55.3
CorpResearch 57.0 66.0 51.0 59.0
EIU 63.0 71.3 62.5 66.8 0
Fitch Solutions 65.0 68.9 60.5 62.3
Gemines 62.9 67.9 52.6 57.8
Goldman Sachs 58.9 65.5 46.7 57.5
Inversiones Security 59.3 77.8 53.8 75.9 -30
Le Fort Economía y Finanzas 65.7 67.7 56.7 60.9 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
UBS 59.5 69.2 50.4 57.4
Summary 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
Minimum 52.4 59.5 42.1 47.6
Maximum 65.7 77.8 62.5 75.9 96
Median 59.5 68.0 52.6 59.5

Consensus 60.6 68.3 52.4 60.5
History 86
30 days ago 71.6 74.8 62.7 66.1

60 days ago 71.7 74.5 63.1 65.6
90 days ago 71.8 75.7 64.7 68.4 76
66
2020 2021
56
40
20
-20
Chile
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
85
75
65
Notes and sources
55
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Chile
AGPV 34.0 37.0 - - 10
Barclays Capital 35.7 37.2 214 231
Credicorp Capital 35.0 - - -
Credit Suisse - - 212 221 8
EIU 27.7 32.0 205 216
Euromonitor Int. 39.4 40.6 - -
Fitch Solutions 39.4 40.6 - -
6
Gemines 38.0 38.0 210 223
Goldman Sachs 36.7 38.7 205 211
Inversiones Security 38.5 39.0 200 203
4
Itaú Unibanco 35.0 35.0 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan 29.7 - - -
Moody's Analytics 38.9 41.7 - -
Oxford Economics 40.1 43.7 203 208 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
UBS 38.6 45.7 204 210
47
Summary
Minimum 27.7 32.0 200 203
Maximum 40.1 45.7 214 231
Median 37.4 38.9 205 213 44
Consensus 36.2 39.1 207 215

History
30 days ago 39.3 41.0 203 212 41
60 days ago 36.3 37.5 199 211
90 days ago 37.4 38.2 200 211
38
2020 2021
35
90
Chile
Latin America
70
50
30
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
220
210
Notes and sources

200
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
37 International reserves, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
190
38 External debt as % of GDP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Chile in the Region

Official name: Republic of Chile Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Santiago (6.7 m)
Chile Chile
Other cities: Valparaíso (0.9 m) 3.1% 5.7%
Concepción (0.9 m)
Area (km2): 756,102 Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 19.1 Other 18.7%
25.1%
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 0.7 Brazil
34.9% Colombia
6.4% Brazil
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 79.4 36.1%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 3.6 Argentina Argentina

7.5% 8.6%
Language: Spanish
8.4%
Time: GMT-3 Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 16.0
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 134 100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17

80 80
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 419 60
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 76.2
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 72.0 40 Other Industry 40
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 11.3

Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 83.4 Consumption
Transportation (2018) 0 0
Airports: 481
Roadways (km): 77,801 Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Primary markets | share in %
Other
Political Data
10.1% U.S.A.
13.6%
Other

8.8%
U.S.A.
Brazil 21.1%
President: Sebastián Piñera LatAm
8.9%
Japan
Last elections: 17 December 2017 15.5% 9.4%

Next elections: 2021
Exports Other
Imports
Central Bank President: Mario Marcel Cullell
Korea EU-27
LatAm
15.2% EU-27
5.9% 12.3% 13.9%

Other Asia
ex-Japan
China 8.7%
China 23.3%

Moody’s: A1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: A+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: A Negative
Other
Other Food 2.0%
Manufact.
Products 9.6%
Food 14.6%
25.0% Mineral
• Market oriented policy firmly • High dependence on copper Fuels
13.9%
anchored exports
• Structurally sound and prudent • Relatively small domestic Agric. Exports
Imports
fiscal policy market Raw Mat.
6.3%
• Free trade agreements with
Manufact.
major economic areas Ores & Products
Metals 74.5%
• Low import tariffs have created 53.2%
competitive industry .

FOCUSECONOMICS Colombia April 2020
Colombia
Outlook worsens
Colombia
• The impact of Covid-19 and the oil price shock will be dealing a blow to
the economy in the first half of this year, after growth slowed slightly in
Q4 2019. The government declared a state of emergency on 17 March
and imposed a national quarantine on 25 March to combat the spread
of the virus. Consumer sentiment dived to a three-year low in March,
while the manufacturing PMI sank to a nine-month low on falling new
orders amid plunging demand. Moreover, the lockdown will be taking a
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages toll on the tourism and commerce sectors, while continued low oil prices
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
will hamper the oil industry. To mitigate the economic fallout, authorities
Population (million): 49.3 50.9 52.3 announced several relief measures aimed at the most vulnerable segment
GDP (USD bn): 309 301 356
of the population and small- and medium-sized firms, which, thus far, is
GDP growth (%): 2.0 1.9 3.6 estimated to amount to 2.5% of GDP. The Central Bank has also enacted
policy easing to shore up activity.
Inflation (%): 5.0 3.4 3.1
• The economy is expected to contract this year as isolation measures
External Debt (% of GDP) 40.7 47.5 48.8
due to the Covid-19 pandemic are set to hamper private consumption
Hanna Andersson and fixed investment. Meanwhile, low global oil prices will cripple export
Economist revenues, about 30% of which comes from oil sales. However, fiscal
stimulus and liquidity boosting measures should somewhat cushion the
blow. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 1.1% in 2020,
which is down 4.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021,
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts panelists see GDP growing 3.5%.
6 4
4
• Inflation inched up to 3.9% in March, from 3.7% in February, thus
2
moving further way from the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target band
2
of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage point. While inflation is expected
0 to slow somewhat going forward amid feeble demand, risks are tilted to
0
the upside due to currency weakness. FocusEconomics panelists see
-2
2020 2021 inflation ending 2020 at 3.2% and at 3.2% again in 2021.
-4 -2

• In an unscheduled meeting on 14 April, the Central Bank cut capital
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. requirements for banks by USD 2.3 billion to stimulate the provision of
credit in the economy. At its last scheduled meeting on 27 March, the
Central Bank slashed the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to
3.75%. The next monetary policy meeting is set for 30 April. The panel
Inflation Change in inflation forecasts forecasts the policy rate to end 2020 at 3.04% and 2021 at 3.60%.
9.0 3.4
Colombia
• The Colombian peso recovered somewhat against the U.S. dollar in
7.5
3.3
recent weeks as market sentiment turned less negative amid positive
trade data from China. On 17 April, the COP ended the day at 3,936 per
6.0
USD, a 1.6% month-on-month appreciation. The peso is seen losing
4.5
3.2
ground this year from 2019 as the country’s external position remains
fragile. FocusEconomics analysts see the peso ending 2020 at 3,895 per
3.0 3.1 USD and 2021 at 3,775 per USD.

FISCAL | Authorities roll out measures to mitigate economic impact from

Covid-19 pandemic; credit rating downgraded amid increased risks to
export revenues
Since declaring a state of emergency on 17 March, the Colombian authorities
have rolled out a wide set of relief measures aimed at cushioning the economic
fallout from the Covid-19 shock. Amounting to approximately 2.5% of GDP, the
measures have been aimed at the most vulnerable groups of the population
as well as to mitigate the fiscal burden for small- and medium-sized firms
through increased monetary support, tax deferrals and credit lines However,
increased spending, coupled with low oil prices, is likely to widen the fiscal
deficit while pressuring revenues.
On 18 March, the government announced a first round of fiscal measures

worth COP 14.8 trillion (approx. USD 3.8 billion), including additional funding
to the public health system and cash transfers to support low-income
households. Furthermore, the government declared the provision of new credit
guarantees of up to COP 4.0 trillion (approx. USD 1.0 billion) in the private
sector as well as deferrals of capital payments of existing loans. Later, the
government announced further measures to mitigate the strain on small- and
medium-sized firms, by cancelling pension contributions by both employers
and employees; taking over salary payments for employees that earn up to
five minimum wages (about USD 1,110); and allowing SMEs to issue state-
guaranteed bonds—increasing the worth of credit guarantees to up to COP
12 trillion (approx. USD 3.0 billion). Lastly, on 9 April, the Ministry of Finance
requested a renewal of its USD 10.8 billion flexible credit line with the IMF for
this year to safeguard the current account against external shocks.
Increased government spending and the sharp fall in global oil prices in March
will lead to a widening of the budget deficit as tax revenues are put under
pressure. Consequently, Fitch Ratings downgraded Colombia’s credit rating
to BBB- from BBB on 1 April and also changed the outlook from stable to
negative. This followed S&P’s decision to change the outlook from stable to
negative on 26 March, citing heightened risks to export revenues.
Commenting on the policy response, Daniel Velandia, head of research and

chief economist at Credicorp Capital, noted:
“We do not rule out that the MoF (Minister of Finance) will be forced to take
additional actions to face the current situation as we are of the view that the
fiscal policy is the key tool to avoid a deeper than expected deterioration of
activity and social conditions. The limiting factor may be the sovereign rating,
especially after recent actions from S&P and Fitch that now have their rating
at BBB with a negative outlook, leaving the country at the edge of losing the
investment grade status. Favorably, the MoF has affirmed its intention to avoid
a further deterioration of debt ratios using resources available in regional and
saving funds to finance the said fiscal plan, which could lower the likelihood
of credit downgrades. However, the potential need of extra spending efforts
and very low oil prices mean that fiscal accounts will remain under significant
pressure.”
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that

GDP will contract 1.1% in 2020, which is down 4.1 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists project that GDP will grow 3.5%.

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rises to over one-year high in

February
Industrial Production | variation in % Industrial production from the manufacturing sector rose 4.6% on an annual
15 5
basis in February, following the 3.7% expansion logged in January and marking
the highest reading since November 2018, according to the Statistical Institute
(DANE).
10 3
A breakdown by industrial activity revealed that expansions in the manufacture

5 2
of beverages; processed and preserved meat; and chemical products largely
% %
drove February’s upturn.
0 0
Year-on-year (left scale)

Annual average variation (right scale) Annual average growth in industrial production edged up to 1.7% in February
-5 -2
Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 from 1.6% in the prior month.
Note: Year-on-year changes of industrial production in %.

Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE) and FocusEconomics Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report see industrial production
calculations.
falling 5.0% in 2020, which is down 7.6 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. For 2021, the panel projects industrial production to rise 4.2%.
REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing PMI hits nine-month low in March

Business conditions in Colombia’s manufacturing sector deteriorated in March
amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The seasonally-adjusted Davivienda
Purchasing Managers’ Index manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.3 in March from 52.5 in
54
February, marking the worst print since June 2019. Thus, the index dropped
below the critical 50-threshold which indicates a deterioration in the health of
the sector.
52
March’s reading largely reflected a fall in new work and output. New orders
declined markedly in the last month of the first quarter as the spread of
50 coronavirus weakened demand, while firms cut production at the fastest pace
since January 2019 due to severed value chains and lower sales. As a result,
hiring activity remained soft in March, with some firms reducing staff levels to
48
offset declining revenues. On the price front, input as well as output charge
inflation accelerated, partly due to a weaker peso against the U.S. dollar.
Note: Davivienda Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate
an improvement in business conditions while readings below 50 point to a
Lastly, while the outlook remained positive overall, business expectations of
deterioration. future output dropped to a record low in March as firms raised concerns over
Source: IHS Markit and Davivienda.
the Covid-19 pandemic leading to prolonged economic fallout.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists project fixed investment to shrink

2.7% in 2020, which is down 5.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
For 2021, panelists see fixed investment growing 2.9%.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence hits over three-year low in March

Consumer Confidence Consumers turned notably more pessimistic in March, with the Fedesarrollo
20 consumer confidence index plunging to minus 23.8 from minus 11.2 in
February and marking the worst reading in over three years. The index thus
10
moved further away from the critical zero-threshold separating pessimism and
optimism among consumers in March.
0
-10 March’s downturn was largely driven by a sharp deterioration in consumers’

appraisal of their current financial situation compared to a year ago, as well
-20
as in their willingness to purchase large-ticket items. Moreover, households’
expectations over the economic times in the year ahead worsened markedly,
-30
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 while their assessment of general economic conditions in the coming 12
months turned slightly less negative compared to February.
Note: Index of consumer sentiment. Values above 0 indicate optimistic
perception, below 0 indicate negative perception.
Source: Fedesarrollo.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants see private consumption falling

1.3% in 2020, which is down 4.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
For 2021, panelists project private consumption to grow 3.6%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises in March

Inflation | Consumer Price Index Consumer prices rose 0.57% over the previous month in March, decelerating
0.9 4.4
from February’s 0.67% rise. March’s milder print largely reflected lower prices
Month-on-month (left scale) for recreation and culture as well as for transport.
0.6 4.0
Meanwhile, inflation rose to 3.9% in March from February’s 3.7%. Thus, it
moved further away from the midpoint of the Central Bank’s target range
0.3 3.6
of 3.0% plus or minus 1.0 percentage points. Meanwhile, annual average
% %
inflation clocked in at 3.7% in March, up from February’s 3.6% reading.
0.0 3.2
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project that

-0.3 2.8
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 inflation will end 2020 at 3.2%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last
month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel also sees inflation ending the year at
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of cons. price index in %.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). 3.2%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank slashes rates for first time since
April 2018
Colombia’s Central Bank (BanRep) cut the benchmark interest rate by 50
basis points to 3.75% at its latest Board of Directors meeting on 27 March.
The decision was unanimous, broadly in line with market expectations and
marked the first cut in nearly two years.
The deteriorating economic scenario due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the oil
Monetary Policy Rate | In %
price crash drove the decision. The Bank noted that the cut would contribute
8.00
to the recovery of internal demand in the future once the shock had passed
and markets had returned to normality, while it also would cushion some of the
6.75 financial burdens on households and business.
%
In addition to the rate move, the Central Bank announced further liquidity
5.50
measures in both Colombian pesos and U.S. dollars, apart from the measures
already introduced throughout March, which included, among others, a form
4.25
of exchange-rate hedging through the establishment of an auction of non-
deliverable forwards (NDFs) worth up to USD 1 billion to facilitate trading in
dollars. The new liquidity provisions included an additional USD 1 billion of
3.00 NDFs and USD 400 million in currency swaps, while the Bank also extended
the access to severance funds to repo auctions for the purchase of private
Note: Central Bank policy rate in %.
Source: Colombia Central Bank (BanRep). debt, as well as for the public workers severance agency (Fondo Nacional de
Ahorro) to repo auctions to purchase private and public debt.
As forward guidance, the Bank stressed it will closely monitor the situation and
the impact of the outbreak of Covid-19 on the economy and stands ready to
take “all the decisions necessary in its competence to contribute to the proper
operation of the economy”, noting that there was room for additional easing.
The next monetary policy meeting will be held on 30 April.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project the

policy rate to end 2020 at 3.04%. For 2021, the panel sees the policy rate
ending the year at 3.60%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports fall in February

Exports declined 5.2% in February over the same month a year earlier,
contrasting the 11.7% year-on-year jump logged in January. February’s

Exports | variation in % downturn largely reflected a fall in exports of fuels and products of extractive
44
industries, as well as manufactured goods.

In January—the latest month for which data is available—imports increased
22 0.6% over the same month of 2019, which contrasted the 2.6% fall recorded
% in December.
0
Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 690 million in January from the
USD 1.0 billion shortfall in the same month of 2019.
-22
Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 In 2020, merchandise exports are forecast to fall 21.6% and imports 13.1%,
widening the trade deficit to USD 10.9 billion. In 2021, merchandise exports
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in % of export growth.
Source: Colombia National Statistical Institute (DANE). are seen rising 13.5% and imports 11.2%, widening the trade deficit to USD
11.4 billion.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 293 283 312 333 324 278 302 331 357 382
GDP (COP tn) 805 864 920 986 1,062 1,088 1,161 1,239 1,321 1,409
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.4 1.6 2.4 4.0 4.6 0.8 2.9 3.2 3.4 -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 1.8 3.6 7.0 4.3 5.4 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.8 -2.9 1.9 1.6 4.6 -2.7 2.9 3.3 3.6 4.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 1.7 -0.2 2.6 0.9 3.1 -6.0 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.0 4.1 -0.5 3.8 1.5 -5.0 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 6.4 2.0 -0.1 5.4 8.1 1.9 5.7 - - -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 12.5 6.9 7.1 5.0 8.7 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 5.2 6.2 4.9 3.2 3.4 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.75 7.50 4.75 4.25 4.25 3.04 3.60 4.20 4.60 5.01
90-day DTF (%, eop) 5.24 6.92 5.28 4.54 4.52 3.55 3.83 3.97 4.15 4.33
Stock Market (ann. var. of IGBC %) -26.5 18.2 13.6 -2.9 19.3 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, eop) 3,175 3,002 2,985 3,248 3,287 3,895 3,775 3,714 3,700 3,685
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 2,749 3,052 2,952 2,958 3,283 3,914 3,842 3,745 3,707 3,692
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -13.5 -9.2 -4.5 -5.1 -8.4 -10.9 -11.4 -12.0 -12.5 -13.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -15.4 -16.9 2.3 12.1 2.5 -13.1 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.7
External Debt (USD bn) 112 120 125 132 138 142 148 163 174 185
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.5 3.4 0.9 -3.5 -1.9 -0.3 1.0 4.9 4.1 4.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 4.4 0.9 -2.5 -2.5 -1.0 1.4 4.1 4.4 4.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.9 2.5 0.0 -5.2 -4.7 -1.9 -0.2 3.1 3.7 4.2
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.5 1.3 -5.8 -8.7 -6.4 -2.9 2.1 8.0 4.6 4.5
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 4.25 4.25 3.75 3.09 3.08 3.04 3.35 3.38 3.56 3.60
90-day DTF (%, eop) 4.48 4.52 4.50 3.75 3.69 3.55 3.67 3.75 3.75 3.83
Exchange Rate (COP per USD, aop) 3,344 3,404 3,548 4,089 4,066 3,955 3,886 3,855 3,829 3,799
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.8 -2.3 -2.3 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 10.3 10.3 9.2 9.3 7.9 7.9 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 13.1 12.6 11.5 10.9 10.4 10.7 - - - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -0.9 3.7 0.4 0.6 2.2 -1.8 3.5 3.7 4.6 -
Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing PMI 49.2 51.5 50.3 50.9 51.1 52.9 52.4 53.4 52.5 49.3
Unemployment (% of active population) 9.4 10.7 10.8 10.2 9.8 9.3 9.5 13.0 12.2 -
Consumer Confidence Index (0-pt threshold) -6.3 -5.1 -11.8 -10.7 -9.8 -14.4 -9.5 -1.2 -11.2 -23.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -7.1 -10.4 -11.4 -12.7 -11.7 -12.0 -2.1 11.7 -5.2 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %

Colombia AGPV -1.0 3.5
Latin America Banco Davivienda -2.2 -
World
4
CABI 0.0 2.5
Capital Economics -0.5 2.8
0
Corficolombiana 0.0 -
Credicorp Capital -1.7 -
0
-4
DekaBank 0.0 3.4
Colombia DuckerFrontier -4.1 5.7
Latin America
World
EIU -2.7 3.8
-4 -8 Euromonitor Int. 1.0 2.7
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Fedesarrollo 1.2 -
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Goldman Sachs -2.5 4.5
HSBC -4.1 2.0
5 6 Itaú Unibanco -1.4 4.9
JPMorgan -2.5 2.4
3
4
Oxford Economics -0.5 3.3
Pezco Economics -2.5 3.2
0 Polinomics -2.0 2.0
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 0.0 4.5
2 S&P Global -2.6 4.1
-3 Scotiabank 0.6 3.6
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Société Générale 0.5 2.4
Consensus
Minimum Minimum
Standard Chartered -1.2 3.5
UBS -1.0 3.5
-5 0
Summary
Minimum -4.1 2.0
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution
Maximum 1.3 5.7
Median -1.0 3.4
50% Consensus -1.1 3.5
History
30 days ago 3.0 3.2
40%
60 days ago 3.2 3.2
90 days ago 3.2 3.2
30% Additional Forecasts
IMF (Apr. 2020) -2.4 3.7
20% CAF (Apr. 2020) -1.7 3.2
World Bank (Apr. 2020) -2.0 3.4
10%
0%
<-8.0 -5.8 -3.5 -1.3 1.0 3.3 5.5 7.8 >7.8
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute
(DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


8
Banco Davivienda -2.4 - - -
Barclays Capital 0.2 2.1 -5.7 0.1
4
CABI - - -1.0 3.0
Capital Economics 0.5 3.2 -2.0 2.5
Credicorp Capital -1.5 - - -
DuckerFrontier -3.9 5.5 - - 0
EIU -3.5 3.3 - -
Euromonitor Int. 1.8 3.1 - - Colombia
Fedesarrollo 1.0 - - - Latin America
Fitch Solutions 2.6 3.4 - - -4
Goldman Sachs -2.0 4.6 -3.4 7.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC -6.0 3.0 - -
Oxford Economics -2.4 5.2 -1.4 3.1 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
S&P Global -4.5 4.8 - -
Société Générale 0.1 2.5 -1.7 2.4 4
UBS -1.2 3.5 -4.5 4.0
Summary
Minimum -6.0 2.1 -5.8 0.1
Maximum 2.6 5.5 1.4 7.0 2
Median -1.5 3.3 -2.0 3.0
Consensus -1.3 3.6 -2.7 2.9
History
30 days ago 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.8 0
60 days ago 3.6 3.5 3.9 3.6
90 days ago 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.4
2020 2021
-2
20
Colombia
Latin America
10
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo
Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. -3
9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

15 Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance

Colombia variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
10 Banco Davivienda - - - - -5.0 -
CABI - - - - -4.0 -3.5
5
Credicorp Capital - - 14.0 - -4.5 -
Credit Suisse - - 11.5 11.0 -2.7 -3.3
0 DuckerFrontier -8.0 7.5 14.0 11.8 - -
EIU -2.3 3.4 15.1 13.9 -5.4 -3.9
Fedesarrollo - - 15.4 - - -
-5
Fitch Solutions - - - - -3.1 -2.8
Goldman Sachs - - - - -5.3 -3.5
-10 HSBC -12.4 2.6 12.5 11.0 -3.1 -2.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Itaú Unibanco - - 12.0 11.5 -4.1 -3.3
JPMorgan - - - - -3.0 -
Moody's Analytics -2.9 3.3 11.6 11.9 -4.9 -4.2
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts Oxford Economics -0.6 5.2 12.0 11.8 -3.1 -2.2
Pezco Economics - - - - -3.9 -3.1
6 S&P Global - - 12.5 11.9 - -
UBS -4.0 3.0 14.6 13.4 -5.5 -4.7
3 Summary
Minimum -12.4 2.6 11.1 11.0 -5.5 -4.7
Maximum -0.6 7.5 15.4 13.9 -2.7 -2.2
Median -3.4 3.4 12.5 11.8 -4.0 -3.5
0
Consensus -5.0 4.2 13.0 11.9 -4.1 -3.4
History
30 days ago 2.6 3.1 10.3 9.9 -2.3 -2.2
-3 60 days ago 2.8 3.0 10.3 9.9 -2.3 -2.2
2020 2021
90 days ago 2.8 3.1 10.3 9.9 -2.2 -2.1
-6
25
Colombia
Latin America
20
15
10
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
Colombia
Latin America
-2
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística)
-6
and the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
Forecast.
10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DANE.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DANE.
13 Central government balance as % of GDP. Source: BanRep.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

8
AGPV 3.4 3.1 - -
Banco Davivienda 3.5 - 3.7 -
Barclays Capital 3.9 3.2 3.7 3.3 6
CABI - - 2.0 2.5
4
Corficolombiana 3.4 - - -
Credit Suisse 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 2
DekaBank - - 3.4 2.7 Colombia
DuckerFrontier - - 3.8 3.5 Latin America
0
EIU 1.4 3.7 1.9 3.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Goldman Sachs 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.9 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
HSBC - - 5.6 3.1 12
9
Pezco Economics 2.8 3.0 - - 6
Polinomics 1.0 2.0 - -
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3.4 3.4 - -
S&P Global 3.4 3.7 3.3 3.6 3
Colombia
Latin America
0
UBS 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Summary
Minimum 1.0 2.0 1.9 2.5
Maximum 4.6 3.9 5.6 4.3 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Median 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.3 5
Consensus 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.2
History
30 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.2 4
60 days ago 3.3 3.2 3.5 3.1
90 days ago 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2
3
IMF (Apr. 2020) 3.2 3.0 3.5 3.2
CAF (Apr. 2020) 3.7 3.2 - - 2
World Bank (Apr. 2020) - - 3.4 3.5
Maximum
1 Consensus
Minimum
0

5
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
4
3
Notes and sources
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical 2
Institute (DANE, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística). Forecasts are based on
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

Colombia AGPV 3.00 3.50
Latin America Banco Davivienda 2.75 -
15 11 Barclays Capital 3.25 -
CABI 2.50 2.75
7
Corficolombiana 3.00 -
10
Credicorp Capital 2.75 -
5 4 Goldman Sachs 3.00 4.50
Colombia
HSBC 2.25 2.25
Latin America Itaú Unibanco 2.75 2.75
0 0 JPMorgan 2.75 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Pezco Economics 2.75 4.00
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3.75 4.50
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst
Maximum Maximum
Consensus
UBS 3.25 4.00
Consensus
Summary
6 Minimum 6 Minimum
Minimum 2.25 2.25
Maximum 3.75 4.50
5 5 Median 3.00 3.75
Consensus 3.04 3.60
History
4 4 30 days ago 4.21 4.55
60 days ago 4.28 4.60
90 days ago 4.33 4.65
3 3
2 2
60%
40%
20%
0%
<1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 >5.00
Notes and sources
from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | COP per USD Exchange Rate | COP per USD
4,000 4,500 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021

AGPV 3,900 3,800
Banco Davivienda 3,750 -
3,500
4,000 Barclays Capital 3,525 3,631
CABI 3,900 3,900
3,000 Capital Economics 3,800 3,700
Corficolombiana 3,755 -
3,500
Credicorp Capital 3,700 -
2,500 Credit Suisse 4,134 4,250
EIU 4,168 3,927
3,000 Fitch Solutions 3,875 3,986
2,000
Goldman Sachs 3,800 3,200
HSBC 4,000 -
1,500 2,500 JPMorgan 3,950 -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Moody's Analytics 4,111 3,980
Oxford Economics 4,033 3,809
25 | COP per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | COP per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst
Pezco Economics 4,200 4,150
Positiva Compañía de Seguros 3,500 3,150
4,500 4,500 S&P Global 3,850 3,800
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Scotiabank 3,654 3,450
Minimum
Société Générale 4,200 -
Minimum
4,000 4,000 UBS 4,000 3,900
Summary
Minimum 3,500 3,150
Maximum 4,200 4,250
3,500 3,500
Median 3,900 3,809
Consensus 3,895 3,775
History
3,000 3,000 30 days ago 3,442 3,372
60 days ago 3,323 3,330
90 days ago 3,352 3,331
2,500 2,500
27 | COP per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution
60%
40%
20%
0%
<3300 3,600 3,900 4,200 4,500 4,800 5,100 5,400 >5400
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, COP per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Colombia
0
AGPV - - -11.0 -12.0
Barclays Capital -5.3 -3.8 - -
CABI - - -10.0 -11.3 -2
Credicorp Capital -4.3 - -13.1 -
Credit Suisse -4.0 -3.4 - - -4
DekaBank -5.0 -4.8 - -

EIU -5.2 -4.4 -13.6 -14.1 -6
Euromonitor Int. -4.8 -4.7 -13.6 -13.7
Fedesarrollo -5.6 - - -
Fitch Solutions -4.7 -4.6 - - -8
Goldman Sachs -4.2 -3.2 -9.2 -8.1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
HSBC -4.4 -3.3 - -
Itaú Unibanco -3.7 -3.7 - -
JPMorgan -4.9 - - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Oxford Economics -4.5 -5.7 -11.3 -13.4 -2.5
Standard Chartered -5.5 -4.0 - -
-3.0
UBS -3.2 -3.3 -5.8 -7.1
Summary
Minimum -5.6 -5.7 -13.6 -14.1 -3.5
Maximum -3.2 -3.1 -5.8 -7.1
Median -4.6 -4.0 -11.1 -12.0
-4.0
Consensus -4.6 -4.1 -10.9 -11.4
History
30 days ago -4.3 -4.0 -9.6 -9.9 -4.5
60 days ago -4.3 -4.0 -9.2 -9.6 2020 2021
90 days ago -4.3 -4.0 -9.4 -9.6
-5.0

90
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
60
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-3
-6
Notes and sources

-9
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BanRep, Banco de la República). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 2020 2021
-12


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn
AGPV 37.0 40.0 48.0 52.0 40
CABI 41.9 41.9 51.9 53.2
20
EIU 32.1 34.9 45.7 49.1
Euromonitor Int. 37.7 40.2 51.2 53.9
Goldman Sachs 34.3 38.4 43.5 46.5 0
UBS 29.7 35.0 35.5 42.2
Summary -20
Minimum 25.6 33.6 35.5 42.2 Colombia
Maximum 41.9 41.9 51.9 53.9 Latin America
Median 33.2 38.4 44.6 49.1 -40
Consensus 33.2 37.7 44.2 49.1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
History
30 days ago 44.7 47.3 54.2 57.3 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
60 days ago 44.8 47.2 54.0 56.8
90 days ago 44.5 47.2 53.9 56.8 52
47
42
37
2020 2021
32
40
20
-20
Colombia
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
60
54
Notes and sources

48
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021


USD bn USD bn
AGPV 52.0 52.0 - -
Barclays Capital 53.3 53.3 142 132
10
Credicorp Capital 52.7 - - -
Credit Suisse 49.1 49.7 141 145
EIU 48.6 49.8 143 147
Goldman Sachs 53.3 53.9 129 144 5
Colombia
JPMorgan 52.3 - 141 -
Moody's Analytics 54.7 51.4 149 166 Latin America
Oxford Economics 47.7 48.6 - - 0
UBS 53.2 53.7 145 152 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Summary
Minimum 47.7 48.6 129 132
Maximum 55.2 57.4 149 166 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Median 52.9 52.7 142 146
Consensus 52.2 52.5 142 148 56
History
30 days ago 53.3 54.6 143 152
60 days ago 53.4 54.9 143 150 54
90 days ago 53.3 53.8 143 149
52
50
2020 2021
48
60
Colombia
Latin America
50
40
30
20
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
165
2020 2021
155
Notes and sources

145
135

Fact Sheet
General Data Colombia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Colombia Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Bogotá (10.6m)
Other cities: Medellín (3.9m)
Cali (2.7m) Colombia Colombia
6.4%
8.4%
Area (km2): 1,138,910
18.7%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 44.2 22.9%

Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.6 Chile
5.5%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018 est.): 4.9 Peru Brazil Brazil
36.1%
5.4% 34.9%
Language: Spanish Argentina
8.6%
Measures: Metric system Argentina
7.5%
Time: GMT-5
Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 130 100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
110
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17

80
80
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 5,098 60
Manufacturing Investment

50
40 Other Industry Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 67.9 Consumption

20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 338 20 Private
Services
Consumption
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 93.1
0 -10
Airports: 836
Chief Ports: Cartagena, Buenaventura
Political Data Other

15.0%
Other 8.9%

Mexico U.S.A.
U.S.A.
President: Iván Duque Márquez
27.0% 8.1% 27.3%
Last elections: 17 June 2018 Panama

Next elections: 2022 12.8% Other
Central Bank President: Juan José Echavarría Exports LatAm Imports

13.4%

Agency
Moody’s:
Rating
Baa2
Outlook
Stable

S&P Global Ratings:
Fitch Ratings:
BBB-
BBB-
Negative
Negative EU-27
12.3% EU-27
Other 13.1%
China
LatAm Other Asia
21.8% 21.2% Other Asia
ex-Japan
6.0% ex-Japan
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings China 8.0%
5.0%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB- Negative Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative
Other Other
Food
Strengths Weaknesses Food
16.8%
5.7%

12.0%
3.7%
Mineral
Manufact. Fuels
• Plentiful natural resources, • Vulnerability to downward shifts Products 8.7%
23.7%
including coffee, oil and gas, coal, in international commodity prices
gold • Relatively undiversified economy Exports Imports
• Ports on two oceans and large informal sector

• Consolidated financial system • Shortages of skilled labor and
• Thriving tourism sector poor productivity Manufact.
Mineral
• Poverty and high inequality Fuels
Products
75.6%
53.7%

FOCUSECONOMICS Mexico April 2020
Mexico
Mexico
Outlook worsens
• The economic scenario for the first quarter and beyond has drastically
deteriorated due to the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the
health emergency declared on 30 March that has stalled non-essential
activities. Available data already hints at the looming downturn: Both
the manufacturing and services PMI slid deeper into negative territory
in March, with the latter recording the largest monthly drop and landing
at its lowest point in series’ history. Formal employment—as measured
by social security affiliations—also shrank in the month from February,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
suggesting the pandemic-induced restrictions have started to bite.
Population (million): 124 127 130 To cushion the economic fallout, the government unveiled a series of
GDP (USD bn): 1,152 1,154 1,301
measures on 5 April, which fell well short of expectations given the lack
GDP growth (%): 2.4 -1.0 2.5 of robust relief and stimulus spending. The underwhelming response,
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.9 -3.1 -3.4 coupled with credit rating downgrades to the sovereign and Pemex in
Inflation (%): 4.6 3.5 3.5 recent weeks, exacerbates downside risks to the outlook.
• The Covid-19 crisis will prompt a much sharper economic downturn
Javier Colato than 2019 this year. Social distancing will hit private consumption hard;
Economist investment is poised to suffer amid deteriorated sentiment; and exports
look set to sink on muted global demand. The collapse of global oil prices
and spillovers from the halt in activity in the U.S. pose additional risks
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts
ahead. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to contract 5.1%
6 3 in 2020, which is down 5.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast,
and grow 2.4% in 2021.
0 0
• Inflation slid to 3.2% in March from 3.7% in February, thus moving towards
the midpoint of Banxico’s target range of 2.0%–4.0%. Core inflation,
-6 -3 meanwhile, has proved sticky, hovering at 3.5%–4.0% for over two
years now. Inflation is seen remaining contained ahead on lower energy
2020 2021
prices and subdued aggregate demand. Currency weakness presents

-12 -6
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb an upward risk, however. FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. 2020 at 3.5% and 2021 at 3.4%.
• In a surprise out-of-cycle meeting on 20 March, Banxico cut the target rate

by 50 basis points to 6.50%, marking the sixth consecutive cut and the
10 3.8 largest since June 2014. Banxico also announced a series of measures
to free up liquidity in the banking system. All of our panelists see Banxico
3.7
further easing its stance this year. FocusEconomics analysts expect the
7
3.6 target rate to end 2020 at 5.03% and 2021 at 4.84%.
3.5
4 • The peso continued to lose ground against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks,
Mexico
3.4 partly due to the fiscal response to the coronavirus fallout failing to boost
Latin America
confidence. On 17 April, the MXN traded at 23.71 per USD, depreciating
2020 2021
1 3.3
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 3.2% month-on-month. The peso is expected to regain some of its losses
variation in %, Q1 2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. but remains exposed to market volatility and risk-off sentiment. Our panel
projects the MXN to end 2020 at 22.49 per USD and 2021 at 21.66 per
USD.

FISCAL | Government presents timid response against Covid-19 crisis,

jeopardizing economic and credit rating outlook
On 5 April, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) unveiled a set
of policy measures to placate the economic fallout of the rapidly-spreading
Covid-19 pandemic. The plan, however, fell well short of expectations as it was
largely devoid of significant relief and stimulus measures, particularly towards
the business sector. Instead, the plan for the most part covered previously
announced policies, consisting mainly of low-interest loans, infrastructure
projects and social programs for the most vulnerable. Additionally, robust
countercyclical spending was left off the table—paling in comparison to the
larger fiscal packages adopted by other countries in the region—while the
needed resources would be mobilized by tapping into the government’s
stabilization fund, development bank and various trusts. Against the backdrop
of a limping economy, which is set to be further hit by the health emergency
declared on 30 March that has stalled non-essential activities for at least a
month, the government’s timid fiscal response gravely exacerbates risks not
only to the country’s already-frail economic outlook but also to its credit rating
standing ahead.
Highlights of the announced measures included a MXN 339 billion (about USD
14 billion) public-private investment plan for the energy sector; provision of
some MXN 212 billion (around USD 9 billion) in personal and housing loans;
the continued construction of the government’s flagship projects such as the
Santa Lucia airport and Dos Bocas refinery; and a MXN 65 billion (about USD
3 billion) tax cut to Pemex, the heavily-indebted state-owned oil company. In
his speech, AMLO also stressed that his administration would not bailout large
companies nor grant them tax breaks, and vowed to tighten austerity through
cost saving measures to avoid piling on the public debt. He later announced,
however, on 17 April a cash injection of around MXN 60 billion (around USD
2.5 billion) in May to further mitigate the effects of the pandemic.
The economic beating from Covid-19, coupled with the government’s

underwhelming response to cushion the fallout, has led to faster credit rating
downgrades of the sovereign and Pemex, which have also been compounded
by the recent plunge in global oil prices. S&P Global Ratings already slashed
both Mexico’s and Pemex credit rating from BBB+ to BBB on 26 March—
leaving them at two notches above junk status—while Fitch Ratings cut the
state oil firm’s bonds even deeper into junk territory from BB+ to BB on 4
April. On 15 April, meanwhile, it downgraded the sovereign’s debt to the
lowest investment grade, from BBB to BBB-. On 17 April, Moody’s followed
suit by lowering the sovereign’s rating from A3 to Baa1, which now remains
at two notches above junk, and cutting Pemex by two notches from Baa3
to Ba2, becoming the second major agency to rate the company’s debt as
junk. The move is expected to trigger a forced sell-off of Pemex’s bonds by
investors who are required to hold investment-rated assets, adding to the oil
firm’s financing difficulties which could in turn amplify the government’s cost
of borrowing.
All in all, the announced economic plan comes amid a fragile economic
scenario that already saw GDP shrink for the first time in a decade last year
and a deep recession this year is now seen as inevitable amid the coronavirus
outbreak and the measures implemented to control its spread. On top of that,
the U.S.—the country’s largest trading partner—is also seeing its economy
screech to a halt amid its own battle against the pandemic. This will certainly
deal a severe blow not only to the country’s manufacturing industry and
exports but also to the inflow of remittances, a key pillar that sustains domestic
consumption, clouding the country’s outlook even more.

Gross Domestic Product | variation in % The LatinFocus panel projects the economy to shrink 5.1% in 2020, which is
down 5.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel
6
sees GDP growth at 2.4%.
REAL SECTOR | GDP shrinks in Q4 2019 on weak domestic and external

0
demand
% Expenditure-based national accounts released by the Statistical Institute
(INEGI) on 20 March confirmed that output fell 0.5% in year-on-year, unadjusted
-6
terms in the fourth quarter of 2019, more sharply than the 0.3% drop logged
in the prior quarter and marking the third consecutive quarter of contraction.
Meanwhile, output slipped 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter
-12
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 basis in Q4, matching Q3’s outturn. For the year as a whole, GDP shrank
0.1%, contrasting 2018’s 2.1% expansion and marking the first slump since
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and LatinFocus Consensus
the 2009 global economic crisis.
Forecast.
Domestic demand remained frail in Q4, though to a lesser degree than in Q3.
Public spending slipped 0.2% year-on-year amid the government’s continued
adherence to fiscal prudence (Q3: -2.0% year-on-year). Additionally, fixed
investment dropped for the fifth consecutive quarter, restrained in large part
by depressed business confidence and lingering uncertainty over government
policy (Q4: -5.2% yoy; Q3: -6.5% yoy). A marked drawdown in inventories also
weighed on the fourth-quarter outturn. On a more positive note, consumer
1.2 6
spending rose 0.9%, slightly picking up from the 0.8% expansion in Q3 amid
Month-on-month (left scale) upbeat remittance inflows and contained price pressures.
0.6 4
Similarly, the external sector fared poorly. Although net trade contributed
positively to Q4’s reading, this mainly reflected the marked downturn in
0.0 2
%
imports. Exports of goods and services fell 2.8% year-on-year (Q3: +2.8%
%
yoy), marking the sharpest drop in over a decade as the General Motors
-0.6 0
worker strike in the U.S. took a toll on the key automobile manufacturing
segment. Similarly, imports plunged 4.5%, marking the third successive
-1.2 -2
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 quarter of decline (Q3: -0.1% yoy).
Note: Month-on-month (s.a.) and year-on-year changes of economic activity

indicator in %.
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity stagnates at the turn of 2020
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics The monthly indicator for economic activity (IGAE) flatlined in seasonally-
calculations.
adjusted, month-on-month terms in January, down from December’s 0.1%
uptick.
January’s print reflected a fall in activity in the primary and secondary sectors
being offset by a modest expansion of the industrial sector.
On a year-on-year basis, economic activity dipped 0.8% in January, contrasting

Consumer Confidence
the 0.7% rise logged in December. Lastly, the annual average variation in
50
economic activity edged down to minus 0.3% from minus 0.1% in the final
month of 2019.
45
Panelists participating in this month’s LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project

40 fixed investment to plummet 9.0% in 2020, which is down 7.5 percentage
points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees fixed investment
35 expanding 2.3%.
30 OUTLOOK | Consumer sentiment falls to over year-low in March

Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20
Consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since November 2018 in
Note: Consumer confidence indicator. (ICC, Indicador de Confianza del March, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence indicator published
Consumidor).
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) coming in at 42.6, below February’s revised
43.8 reading (previously reported: 43.9).

March’s result reflected a broad-based deterioration of the indicator’s

sub-components. Households’ assessment over the general economic
environment in the year ahead and the current state of the economy turned
gloomier compared to February. Meanwhile, their appraisal about their current
financial situation and their ability to purchase big-ticket items worsened.
Lastly, consumers’ perception regarding their financial situation in 12 months’
time turned less positive compared to the previous month.
Due to the state of emergency declared amid the Covid-19 pandemic, INEGI
will suspend the publication of the consumer confidence survey until further
notice starting April 2020.

private consumption to decline 5.0% in 2020, which is down 6.2 percentage
points from last month’s projection, and expand 2.9% in 2021.
OUTLOOK | Manufacturing PMIs slide on coronavirus outbreak

The seasonally-adjusted manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
Manufacturing Index
62
produced by the Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) slid to
45.0 in March from 48.0 in February, its lowest reading since April 2017
IMEF Manufacturing PMI
IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI
U.S. Manufacturing Index
and signaling a sharper contraction of the manufacturing sector. Notably,
56 plummeting production and new orders, coupled with a marked decline in
employment, drove the indicator’s fall.
50 Similarly, the seasonally-adjusted manufacturing PMI produced by IHS

Markit dropped from 50.3 in February to 46.9 in March, indicating a marked
deterioration of business conditions in the manufacturing sector. March’s dip
44
primarily reflected tumbling production and new orders amid dire demand
conditions due to the coronavirus outbreak, and firms turning pessimistic for
Note: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (PMI) for the U.S., seasonally- the first time on record.
adjusted manufacturing index for Mexico and IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI.
Readings above 50 indicate an expansion/improvement of the manufacturing
sector while readings below 50 indicate a contraction/deterioration.
Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the Mexican Institute of According to the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panel, industrial production
Financial Executives (IMEF, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas) and
IHS Markit. will plunge 5.8% in 2020, which is down 5.9 percentage points from last
month’s projection, and grow 2.4% in 2021.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases from seven-month high in March

Consumer prices slipped 0.05% from the previous month in March, following
the 0.42% month-on-month increase logged in February. According to the
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Statistical Institute (INEGI), March’s reading largely reflected lower energy
1.2 6 prices more than offsetting higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
0.8 5
Inflation dropped to 3.2% in March from 3.7% in February which had marked
a seven-month high, thus landing slightly above the midpoint of Banxico’s
0.4 4
target range of 2.0%–4.0%. Meanwhile, annual average inflation held steady
%
at 3.5% for the third month in a row in March.
%
0.0 3
Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, rose
0.29% over the previous month in March, down from February’s 0.36%
-0.4 2
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 increase. As for core inflation, it remained stable at 3.7%.
Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.

Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI). Panelists surveyed by FocusEconomics see inflation ending 2020 at 3.5%,
which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees year-
end inflation at 3.4 %.

MONETARY SECTOR | Banxico slashes key rate and unveils liquidity

measures in March to combat coronavirus impact
In a surprise out-of-cycle meeting on 20 March, the Governing Board of the
Bank of Mexico (Banxico) decided to slash the target for the overnight interbank
interest rate by 50 basis points to 6.50%, marking the sixth consecutive cut
and the largest since June 2014. The meeting was brought forward from the
original meeting scheduled for 26 March and saw one of the five-member
Board call for a smaller 25-basis-points cut. Banxico also announced a series
of measures to facilitate liquidity and help smooth the functioning of financial
markets which have been roiled by the coronavirus fallout.
The Bank’s decision was driven by its assessment that the fast-spreading
Covid-19 and adverse impact on domestic activity, which comes against the
backdrop of a weaker global economy and crash in international oil prices,
will likely lead to greater economic slack ahead, thus deteriorating growth
10
prospects. On the inflation front, although Banxico deemed that inflation will
converge to its target over its policy horizon, it stressed that uncertainty over
8
the inflation outlook has increased given the presence of both upside and
downside risks. In particular, the negative output gap and lower energy prices
6
could keep a lid on inflationary pressures, but the sharp depreciation of the
currency could push pass-through inflation higher.
4
% Banxico’s additional measures to free up liquidity in financial markets included

2
reducing by MXN 50 billion the monetary regulation deposit that banks are
required to hold and cutting the rates to which they can access Central Bank
Note: Banxico target rate (Tasa objetivo de fondeo bancario) in %. liquidity. Moreover, Banxico will offer credit auctions in U.S. dollars to banks
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico).
by making use of the swap line with the U.S. Federal Reserve and will ramp
up facilities so that market makers can further support the functionality of the
government bond market.
In terms of forward guidance, the statement struck a dovish tone by highlighting

the complex global situation amid the rapid spread of Covid-19; the severely
deteriorated outlook for the global economy; and the extraordinary policy
measures taken by central banks worldwide. Against this backdrop, Banxico
stressed that it will take the necessary actions according to available
information and policy will be adjusted accordingly so that inflation converges
to target. As things stand, the Bank is likely to further ease its stance ahead,
though uncertainty remains over the pace at which it will cut and whether
it will even hold additional extraordinary meetings amid a rapidly-changing
scenario.
FocusEconomics panelists see Banxico’s target rate at 5.03% by end-2020

and 4.84% by end-2021.
Merchandise Trade
12 16
Exports (yoy, right scale)
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports growth slows in February
Imports (yoy, right scale)
6 12 Exports climbed 0.6% year-on-year in February, below January’s 3.2%
increase. The moderation was mainly driven by a collapse in exports of oil.
0 8
%
In contrast, imports fell 3.9% over the same month of 2019 in February, following
-6 4
the 3.2% drop logged in January and marking the seventh consecutive month
-12 0
of declining imports. The sharper contraction reflected a steeper decline in the
purchase of oil and intermediate goods compared to January.
-18 -4
Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20
Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 2.9
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the billion in February, larger than the USD 1.3 billion surplus logged in the same
12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI).

month of 2019. Moreover, the 12-month rolling trade balance climbed to a

USD 9.6 billion surplus in February from a USD 8.0 billion surplus in January.
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report project merchandise

exports to reach USD 402 billion in 2020. Meanwhile, merchandise imports
are projected to reach USD 393 billion. For 2021, the panel forecasts exports
and imports to total USD 441 billion and USD 439 billion, respectively.
Remittances - U.S. Payrolls | variation in % EXTERNAL SECTOR | Remittances gather pace in February
24 1.7
Remittances totaled USD 2.7 billion in February (January: USD 2.6 billion),
representing a robust 10.5% increase from the same month in 2019 and
18 1.6 following the 5.2% rise logged in January. February’s quickening came in
line with a pick-up in U.S. non-farm payrolls growth. Meanwhile, the average
12 1.5
%
amount remitted was USD 321, matching that of the prior month.
%
6 1.4
In the 12 months up to February, remittances totaled a record-high USD 36.4

0
Remittances (yoy, left scale)
1.3 billion, above the USD 36.2 billion recorded in the 12 months up to January.
U.S. non-farm payrolls (yoy, right scale) February’s 12-month rolling total marked a 7.0% increase from a year earlier
-6 1.2
Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 (January: +6.8% year-on-year).
Note: Year-on-year variation of remittances from Mexican workers abroad and

U.S. non-farm payrolls. Analysts project remittances to reach USD 34.1 billion in 2020. For 2021, the
Source: Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
panel sees remittances at USD 35.6 billion.


Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
Population (million) 121 122 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 132
GDP (USD bn) 1,168 1,077 1,159 1,221 1,259 1,062 1,142 1,230 1,299 1,373
GDP (MXN bn) 18,551 20,118 21,912 23,492 24,239 23,849 25,205 26,689 28,270 29,953
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.2 8.4 8.9 7.2 3.2 -1.6 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.3 2.9 2.1 2.1 -0.1 -5.1 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 3.0 3.1 1.8 2.0 -0.9 -5.8 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.9 2.6 0.7 3.0 -1.5 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 1.0 -1.6 0.9 -4.9 -9.0 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 8.4 3.6 4.2 5.9 1.1 -8.8 5.7 4.8 4.2 3.6
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 5.9 2.8 6.4 5.9 -1.1 -9.0 6.0 5.0 4.2 3.5
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.2 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -1.8 -5.8 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 5.0 5.3 -0.3 1.5 2.0 -6.4 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 3.25 5.75 7.25 8.25 7.25 5.03 4.84 5.28 5.56 5.84
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 3.42 5.84 7.51 8.41 7.70 5.76 5.47 5.82 5.99 6.17
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, eop) 17.18 20.73 19.65 19.65 18.93 22.49 21.66 21.74 21.79 21.85
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 15.88 18.69 18.91 19.23 19.25 22.46 22.07 21.70 21.77 21.82
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -14.7 -13.1 -11.0 -13.6 5.8 9.1 2.8 -4.3 -10.5 -15.2
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -4.1 -1.7 9.5 10.1 2.3 -12.8 9.7 6.8 4.8 2.7
Remittances (USD bn) 24.8 27.0 30.3 33.7 36.1 34.1 35.6 37.3 39.0 40.8
International Reserves (USD bn) 177 177 173 175 181 174 175 178 181 185
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.3 -0.5 -1.8 -9.1 -6.1 -3.8 -1.8 5.8 4.2 2.2
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. %) -0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -7.4 2.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.9
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 0.8 0.9 -1.7 -8.2 -5.9 -3.3 0.4 4.8 4.0 2.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) -2.0 -0.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.5 -5.2 -8.3 -14.2 -8.7 -5.9 -0.5 3.0 2.9 2.4
Retail Sales (ann. var. %) 2.4 2.0 -1.4 -10.7 -8.4 -4.9 -0.5 5.8 4.1 2.9
Banxico Target Rate (%, eop) 7.75 7.25 6.50 5.54 5.17 5.03 5.00 4.96 4.86 4.84
TIIE 28 Days Rate (%, eop) 8.20 7.70 7.10 6.00 5.82 5.76 5.70 5.58 5.50 5.47
Exchange Rate (MXN per USD, aop) 19.44 19.25 20.00 23.75 23.36 22.72 22.40 22.19 21.94 21.74
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 0.3 0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.3 -1.3 -0.2 -0.9 -1.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 0.8 2.5 -3.1 -1.7 -0.2 -0.9 -3.6 -0.5 -2.7 -3.3
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.5 3.1 4.2 1.8 1.9 1.4 3.2 2.1 0.0 -0.4
Economic Activity (IGAE, mom s.a. var. %) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 - -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -2.9 -1.3 -1.3 -1.8 -3.0 -2.3 -1.0 -1.6 -1.9 -
Consumer Confidence Indicator 43.5 43.2 43.7 45.4 44.1 43.6 43.6 44.0 43.8 42.6
IMEF Manufacturing Index (50-pt threshold) 48.6 48.9 47.3 48.1 46.5 46.7 46.8 49.0 48.0 45.0
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.06 0.38 -0.02 0.26 0.54 0.81 0.56 0.48 0.42 -0.05
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 1.2 7.0 2.2 -1.3 -1.5 -2.9 3.0 3.2 0.6 -
Remittances (ann. var. %) 1.4 14.0 16.4 13.0 3.6 -2.2 3.0 5.2 10.5 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Real GDP growth in %
9 10
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
Mexico Actinver -6.2 2.1
Mexico
Latin America
World
Latin America AGPV -3.0 1.8
6 World
5
American Chamber Mexico -4.0 -
Barclays Capital -5.0 0.6
3 BBVA Bancomer -4.5 2.2
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -5.0 1.7
0
Citibanamex -5.1 2.3
-5 Commerzbank -3.5 0.1
-3 Credit Suisse -4.0 1.2
D.Econosignal -4.2 1.6
-6 -10 DekaBank -2.9 0.6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 DuckerFrontier -9.5 5.2
EIU -6.5 2.4
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Fitch Ratings -4.0 2.1
Fitch Solutions -5.7 2.8
5 6 Goldman Sachs -4.3 2.9
Maximum HSBC -4.5 3.5
Consensus ING -3.8 0.5
Minimum
INVEX -6.0 2.5
0 4 Itaú Unibanco -3.7 3.6
JPMorgan -7.5 2.0
-5 2
Maximum NORD/LB -4.5 2.5
Consensus
Minimum Oxford Economics -3.9 3.2
Prognosis -6.0 2.0
-10 0
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb S&P Global -6.7 2.9
Scotiabank -8.4 1.1
Société Générale -5.7 2.0
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Standard Chartered -2.9 4.5
UBS -7.6 4.5
40% Ve Por Más -4.2 1.6
Vector Casa de Bolsa -6.0 2.7
Summary
30% Minimum -9.5 0.1
Maximum -2.0 5.6
Median -5.0 2.2
20% Consensus -5.1 2.4
History
30 days ago 0.6 1.6
10% 60 days ago 0.9 1.7
90 days ago 1.0 1.7
0%
IMF (Apr. 2020) -6.6 3.0
<-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 >2.0 World Bank (Apr. 2020) -6.0 2.5
Notes and sources
General:
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics
and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.


10
Barclays Capital -1.6 1.9 -4.3 2.1
5
Casa de Bolsa Finamex -4.6 1.5 -7.0 1.0
Citibanamex -6.7 3.1 -2.0 0.7
0
Credit Suisse -2.6 1.2 -3.9 0.3
D.Econosignal -3.2 1.9 -7.5 1.2
-5
EIU -6.9 1.5 -12.6 -2.0
Fitch Ratings -3.6 2.5 -10.0 2.7 Mexico
Goldman Sachs -3.1 1.8 -8.5 2.1 Latin America
-10
HSBC -4.2 4.0 -5.5 2.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
JPMorgan -5.4 1.9 -16.9 1.6
Oxford Economics -5.0 3.5 -7.7 -1.1 7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Prognosis -5.0 3.0 -8.0 0.0
S&P Global -7.9 3.0 - - 3

UBS -7.2 5.0 -19.9 13.0
Summary
0
Minimum -9.0 0.8 -19.9 -2.0
Maximum -1.6 6.0 -2.0 13.0
Median -5.0 2.7 -7.8 1.8
Consensus -5.0 2.9 -9.0 2.3
-3
History
30 days ago 1.2 1.9 -1.5 1.4
60 days ago 1.5 2.1 -0.3 1.8 2020 2021
90 days ago 1.6 2.1 -0.1 1.7 -6

16
-8
Mexico
Latin America
-16
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-4
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes -8
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
-12
7 Private consumption, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.


10
variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
5
American Chamber Mexico - - 4.8 - -3.5 -
Barclays Capital - - 5.8 5.3 -3.3 -2.3
BBVA Bancomer - - 4.7 - -3.6 -3.8
0
Casa de Bolsa Finamex - - - - -4.4 -4.2
Citibanamex - - 5.0 4.8 -4.3 -2.6
-5
Credit Suisse - - 5.0 4.5 -3.8 -3.9
D.Econosignal -4.0 1.3 4.2 3.8 - -
Mexico DekaBank - - - - -3.0 -2.4
Latin America DuckerFrontier -6.5 3.3 - - - -
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 EIU -4.5 1.4 - - -4.2 -3.9
Goldman Sachs - - 4.3 4.3 -6.0 -3.5
HSBC -5.0 3.0 5.0 4.5 -3.9 -2.1
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts INVEX -5.6 2.5 4.2 4.1 -3.0 -1.5
Itaú Unibanco - - 4.9 3.8 -3.5 -3.5
4
JPMorgan - - 6.8 6.4 -5.0 -4.5
Moody's Analytics -8.4 1.1 5.7 5.2 -5.4 -6.3
2 NORD/LB - - 7.0 6.0 -5.0 -4.0
0 Prognosis -6.0 - 4.5 4.3 -4.5 -
S&P Global - - 5.4 4.6 - -
-2
UBS -6.7 4.5 6.9 5.4 -4.9 -3.7
Ve Por Más - - 4.6 4.0 - -
-4 Summary
2020 2021 Minimum -8.4 1.1 4.2 3.8 -6.0 -6.3
-6 Maximum -4.0 4.5 7.0 6.4 -3.0 -1.5
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Median -5.8 2.5 5.0 4.6 -4.1 -3.9
Consensus -5.8 2.4 5.2 4.8 -4.2 -3.6
History
30 days ago 0.1 1.0 3.7 3.8 -2.4 -2.5
60 days ago 0.5 1.3 3.7 3.8 -2.4 -2.4
12 90 days ago 0.6 1.4 3.8 3.8 -2.5 -2.5
Mexico
Latin America
10
2
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
-2
Notes and sources

-4
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de
-6 Estadística y Geografía) and the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Mexico LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INEGI.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEGI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Banxico.

Consumer Prices 14 | Inflation | 2000-2024 | in %

(ann. var. in %, eop) (ann. var. in %, aop) Mexico
Actinver 3.5 3.7 - - 8

AGPV 3.5 3.6 - -
American Chamber Mexico 3.8 - - -
6
BBVA Bancomer 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 3.6 3.7 3.3 3.7
Citibanamex 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 4
Commerzbank - - 3.1 2.9
D.Econosignal 3.7 3.5 - - 2
DuckerFrontier - - 3.8 3.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EIU 3.0 3.4 2.9 2.6
Fitch Ratings 3.5 3.5 - -
Goldman Sachs 3.8 3.0 3.9 3.3 15 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in %
HSBC - - 3.8 3.5
10
ING 4.5 3.9 - -
Mexico
INVEX 3.0 4.0 3.1 3.6
Latin America
JPMorgan 3.2 2.8 - - 8
Moody's Analytics 5.0 2.9 5.0 3.1 6
NORD/LB - - 3.5 3.4
Prognosis 3.0 - 3.4 - 4
S&P Global 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.4
2
Standard Chartered - - 4.0 4.1 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
UBS 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.3
Ve Por Más 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4
Vector Casa de Bolsa 3.0 3.1 - -
Summary 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
Minimum 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.6 6
Maximum 5.0 4.0 5.0 4.1 Maximum
Median 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 Consensus
Minimum
Consensus 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 5
History
30 days ago 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4
60 days ago 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 4
90 days ago 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4
World Bank (Apr. 2020) - - 4.0 4.0 3
IMF (Apr. 2020) 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.8
2

5
Notes and sources

3
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional Maximum
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the National Institute of Consensus
Statistics and Geography (INEGI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía). Forecasts are Minimum
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2
14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

18 | Interest Rate | 2000-2024 | in % 19 | Interest Rate | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Interest Rate | Policy Rate
Mexico Actinver 4.75 4.25
Latin America AGPV 5.00 5.00
15 American Chamber Mexico 6.25 -
BBVA Bancomer 5.00 5.00
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 5.50 5.00
7 Citibanamex 5.00 5.00
Mexico D.Econosignal 5.75 5.00
Latin America Fitch Ratings 5.50 5.25
0 4 Goldman Sachs 5.00 5.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 HSBC 6.00 6.00
ING 5.50 5.00
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst INVEX 5.50 5.50
10 10
JPMorgan 3.00 3.00
Prognosis 5.00 4.00
8 8
6 6
Société Générale 4.00 -
UBS 4.25 4.25
Ve Por Más 6.00 6.00
4 4 Summary
Maximum
Maximum Minimum 3.00 3.00
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Maximum 6.25 6.00
2 2 Median 5.00 5.00
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Consensus 5.03 4.84
History
30 days ago 6.18 5.88
22 | Interest Rate 2020 | Panelist Distribution 60 days ago 6.34 6.04
90 days ago 6.35 6.05
60%
40%
20%
0%
<2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 >9.00
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus
Consensus Forecast.
18 Interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank policy rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | MXN per USD Exchange Rate | MXN per USD
Actinver 23.10 23.70
AGPV 23.00 22.00
20 American Chamber Mexico 22.27 -
BBVA Bancomer 20.28 19.61
Casa de Bolsa Finamex 22.50 22.50
20 Citibanamex 21.90 21.40
10 Commerzbank 22.50 -
D.Econosignal 22.30 21.00
5 18 EIU 25.03 24.06
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Fitch Ratings 21.50 20.50
25 | MXN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | MXN per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst HSBC 24.00 -
ING 22.50 22.00
28 28
Maximum Maximum
INVEX 22.65 22.15
Consensus Consensus Itaú Unibanco 22.50 21.50
Minimum Minimum Julius Baer 23.00 21.50
25 25
22 22
Prognosis 21.50 21.50
S&P Global 22.00 21.50
UBS 23.50 22.00
16 16 Ve Por Más 22.00 22.10
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Summary
Minimum 20.00 18.00
Maximum 26.25 25.50
27 | MXN per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution Median 22.50 21.50
40% History
30 days ago 19.81 20.11
60 days ago 19.65 19.95
30% 90 days ago 19.81 20.00
20%
10%
0%
<19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00 23.00 24.00 25.00 26.00 >27.00
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, MXN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Mexico
AGPV - - 4.0 -4.0
American Chamber Mexico -1.2 - - - 0
Barclays Capital -1.1 -1.3 - -
BBVA Bancomer -0.6 -0.6 - -
Capital Economics 0.5 0.0 - -
Citibanamex 0.6 -0.2 12.7 7.0 -2
Credit Suisse 0.4 -0.7 - -
DekaBank -2.5 -2.3 - -
EIU -2.0 -1.7 -9.6 -10.9
Goldman Sachs 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.9 -4
HSBC -0.6 -0.9 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
INVEX 0.4 -0.7 9.9 -3.8
JPMorgan -0.9 -1.0 - - 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Moody's Analytics 0.4 -0.7 - -
NORD/LB -1.5 -1.5 - - -0.5
Oxford Economics -0.1 0.7 3.2 10.9
Prognosis -1.0 -2.0 9.5 -7.9 2020 2021

-1.0
Standard Chartered 0.1 -0.4 - -
UBS 0.2 -0.5 31.5 25.4
Summary
Minimum -2.5 -2.3 -9.6 -10.9
-1.5
Maximum 0.6 0.7 31.5 25.4
Median -0.6 -0.7 9.7 1.0
Consensus -0.6 -0.9 9.1 2.8
History -2.0
30 days ago -0.9 -1.2 -2.6 -4.6 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
60 days ago -1.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.5
90 days ago -1.1 -1.1 -3.4 -2.9
750
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
500
250
-250
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
12
2020 2021
Notes and sources

-12
Venezuela. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (Banxico, Banco de México). Forecasts based
28 Current account balance, as % of GDP. -24
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
30 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD.


Exports Imports 40
USD bn USD bn
AGPV 416 449 412 453 20
Citibanamex 387 453 374 446
EIU 410 411 420 422
Goldman Sachs 418 441 407 435 0
INVEX 447 456 437 460
Prognosis 397 476 387 484 -20
UBS 377 443 345 417
Mexico
Summary Latin America
Minimum 366 403 345 392 -40
Maximum 447 476 437 484 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Median 403 446 397 441
Consensus 402 441 393 439
History 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
30 days ago 478 502 480 507
60 days ago 478 499 478 500 580
90 days ago 480 503 484 506
530
480
430
2020 2021
380
40
20
-20
Mexico
Latin America
-40
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
620
570
520
Notes and sources 470
420
on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
32 Exports, annual variation in %. 370
33 Exports, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
34 Imports, annual variation in %.


USD bn USD bn
AGPV 173 173 - - 9
Barclays Capital 181 189 462 466
Citibanamex 185 186 497 522
Credit Suisse 178 177 - - 6
EIU 156 156 454 462
Goldman Sachs 176 176 - -
INVEX 180 183 - - 3
Itaú Unibanco 184 186 - -
Mexico
JPMorgan 179 179 - -
Latin America
Moody's Analytics 139 127 - - 0
Oxford Economics 181 201 - - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
UBS 176 173 458 458
Summary
Minimum 139 127 454 458 38 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Maximum 185 201 497 522
Median 179 178 460 464 190
Consensus 174 175 467 477

History
185
30 days ago 184 188 470 475
60 days ago 184 187 474 492
90 days ago 184 187 474 492
180
175
2020 2021
170
39 | External Debt | USD bn
2500
Mexico
Latin America
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
Mexico
Latin America
40
30
Notes and sources
39 External debt including federal government bonds held by non-residents, in USD. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Fact Sheet
General Data Mexico in the Region

Official name: United Mexican States Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Mexico City (21.8m)
Other cities: Guadalajara (5.2m)
Monterrey (4.8m)
Area (km2): 1,964,375 Mexico
Other 20.9% Other
Mexico
Population (million, 2019 est.): 126 22.9% 18.7%
24.7%
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.0 Chile
5.5%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 76.7 Peru
5.4% Colombia
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 4.6 6.4%
Argentina
Language: Spanish and Indigenous 7.5%
Argentina
Brazil
34.9%
8.6%
8.4% Brazil
Time: GMT-6 to GMT-8 36.1%
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 95.2 100
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
120
2009-11 2012-14 2015-17

80 90
Energy (2017)
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,020 20 0 Private
Services
Transportation (2018) 0 -30
Airports: 1,714
Chief Ports: Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas
Other Other
Political Data 8.6%
11.4%
LatAm

5.4%
President: A. M. López Obrador EU-27
6.0%
Last elections: 1 July 2018

China
18.1%
U.S.A.
Exports Imports
Central Bank Governor: Alejandro Díaz de León
Other Asia
ex-Japan
U.S.A. 12.4%
80.0%

EU-27


Moody’s: Baa1 Negative
Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Negative
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable
Food Other Food Other

Mineral 6.0%
Strengths Weaknesses Mineral 7.5% 4.3%
Fuels Fuels
6.6%
7.3%
5.5%

• Commitment to sound fiscal • Dependence on the U.S.
policy economy
• Large domestic market • Financial sector still relatively Exports Imports
• Tariff-free access to U.S. market weak
• Drug-related violence and
instability
Manufact. Manufact.
Products Products
82.6% 80.1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Peru April 2020
Peru
Outlook worsens
Peru
• The economic panorama has deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks as

the coronavirus pandemic disrupts domestic activity and has caused the
global economy to grind to a halt. To contain the pandemic at home, the
government has closed borders and implemented a mandatory national
isolation period, which is impacting businesses and household spending.
In order to combat the adverse economic fallout, the administration
announced a massive stimulus package of up to 12% of GDP on 29
March, which includes cash transfers to vulnerable citizens and financing
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
for affected businesses. While fiscal accounts will take a hit as a result,
Population (million): 31.8 32.8 33.8 solid external buffers and a low debt-to-GDP ratio means the country has
GDP (USD bn): 211 230 266
ample fiscal space to act and should weather the storm relatively well
GDP growth (%): 3.5 1.5 3.8 compared to its regional peers. Despite having recorded healthy growth
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.5 -3.8 -2.3 in January−February, all-time low business sentiment in March points at
Inflation (%): 2.6 2.0 2.4 a troubled end to Q1.
• Peru’s outlook was slashed this month, as private consumption, fixed
Angela Bouzanis investment and exports are all now seen contracting this year due to
Lead Economist the Covid-19 pandemic. Disruptions to activity will dent both household
spending and fixed investment amid the uncertain environment, while
exports are also expected to plunge amid shriveled demand from abroad,
low metals prices and halted tourism. GDP is now seen contracting 2.4%
in 2020, which is down over 5.0 percentage points from last month’s
10 6 forecast. Next year, the economy should rebound solidly, growing 4.7%.
4
5 • Inflation inched down to 1.8% in March from 1.9% in February, thus falling
2 further below the midpoint of Central Bank’s target range of 2.0% plus
0
or minus 1.0 percentage point. Price pressures should remain modest
0
ahead, restrained by lower energy prices and weak domestic demand.
-5
Peru -2 FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 1.5%, which is
Latin America
World 2020 2021
down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2021 at 2.1%.
-10 -4
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months.
• At an extraordinary meeting on 9 April, the Central Bank of Peru decided
to slash the policy rate by a whole percentage point to a record low
of 0.25%. The move is designed to help shield the economy from the
fallout of Covid-19, and the Bank left open the possibility of further
accommodative action if needed ahead. The FocusEconomics panel
10.0 2.6
sees the monetary policy rate ending 2020 at 0.67% and 2021 at 1.50%.
Peru
Latin America
7.5 2.3 • The sol regained some lost ground in recent weeks supported by
optimism over the government’s plan to combat Covid-19 contagion
5.0 2.0 and interventions by the Central Bank. On 17 April, the PEN ended the
day at 3.41 per USD, appreciating 4.0% from the same day in March.
2.5 1.7
Risk-averse sentiment will likely weigh on the sol ahead in light of global
2020 2021
economic uncertainty. FocusEconomics analysts see the PEN ending
0.0 1.4
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 2020 at 3.46 per USD and 2021 at 3.43 per USD.

FISCAL | Government unveils region’s largest stimulus package to

combat coronavirus crisis
The government announced a massive stimulus package worth up to 12%
of GDP at the end of March, in a bid to mitigate the economic fallout from
Covid-19. The Peruvian economy is expected to be hard hit by the pandemic
as a stay-at-home mandatory isolation period and curfews squash domestic
spending, while low metals prices and shriveled demand dent the important
export sector. However, aggressive measures by both fiscal and monetary
authorities should help the economy weather the storm relatively well
compared to other emerging market peers. Relative to its peers, the country
also has ample fiscal space, low debt levels and solid buffers.
The stimulus package is divided into three phrases of SOL 30 billion (around
USD 9 billion) aimed at combating the current economic fallout, supporting
struggling businesses and fueling the recovery after the health crisis ends.
Highlights include approximately 4% of GDP to be spent on cash transfers to
vulnerable citizens, early pension fund withdrawals and employee subsidies
to corporations to prop up households’ cash flows.
Commenting on Peru’s outlook, Daniel Velandia, director of research at

Credicorp Capital noted:
“The Peruvian economy has one of the strongest macroeconomic fundamentals

in emerging markets […]. Nonetheless, it is clear that Peru will not be able to
escape the effects of a severe deterioration of the international environment
and the COVID-19 outbreak. We believe that the recovery in 2H20 will be
gradual and the key factors to carefully monitor are: i) a lockdown extension
and the subsequent restrictions, ii) the financial health of households and
firms, iii) the effectiveness of the adopted policy measures, and iv) the need
to avoid populist measures that undermine macroeconomic stability that has
been built in the past 30 years.”
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect Peru’s

fiscal deficit to widen notably this year, after coming in at 1.6% of GDP in
2019. The panel projects the deficit to jump to 6.5% of GDP in 2020, before
narrowing to 3.4% in 2021.

REAL SECTOR | Economic activity gains steam in February
In February, economic activity grew 3.8% year-on-year, accelerating from
9
January’s 3.0% outturn. In terms of industries, February’s expansion was
underpinned by healthy growth in the mining and quarrying, agricultural, and
6
manufacturing sectors.
%
Meanwhile, the annual average growth in economic activity inched up from
3 January’s 2.3% to 2.4% in February.
Panelists surveyed for this month’s LatinFocus report expect GDP to contract
0
2.4% in 2020, which is down 5.2 percentage points from last month’s
projection. For 2021, the panel expects the economy to grow 4.7%.
Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth
in %.
Source: Peru National Statistics Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics OUTLOOK | Business sentiment at all-time low in March on coronavirus
calculations.
fears
The business confidence indicator dived from February’s 48.2 points to 21.8
points in March, amid mounting fears of a blow to the global economy from
the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures. Thus,
the indicator logged the worst reading in its history and plunged below the

Business Confidence Index 50-point threshold that separates pessimism from optimism.
65
March’s slump reflected a broad-based worsening in the index’s sub-
components. Expectations on the general economic situation in the next 3
50 months collapsed, as did businesses perceptions of the conditions of the
sector in the next 3 and 12 months as well as the outlook on the company’s
financial situation and on the demand for the company’s products in the same
35 time horizons. Lastly, expectations on the general economic situation in the
next 12 months also worsened considerable.
20 Panelists expect fixed investment to nosedive 5.1% in 2020, which is down

7.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panel participants
Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values see fixed investment rebounding and growing 5.1%.
above 50 indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values
below 50 indicate a pessimistic assesment.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation inches down in March
Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima jumped 0.65% over the previous month
in March, up from February’s 0.14% increase. March’s rise was chiefly the
Inflation | Consumer Price Index result of higher prices for food and beverages and for education and culture,
1.4 3.0 which more than offset lower prices for housing, energy and transport and
Month-on-month (left scale) communications.
0.7 2.0 Meanwhile, inflation ticked down from February’s 1.9% to 1.8% in March, thus
moving further below the midpoint of Central Bank’s target range of 2.0%
% %
plus or minus 1.0 percentage points. In March, core consumer prices, which
0.0 1.0 exclude energy and food prices, increased 0.4% from the previous month, up
from February’s 0.2% rise. Finally, core inflation in March came in at 1.8%,
down from the previous month’s 2.2%.
-0.7 0.0
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast expect inflation

Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: Peru National Statistical Institute (INEI). to end 2020 at 1.5%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s
projection. For 2021, the panel expects inflation to come in at 2.1%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank slashes policy rate to 0.25% amid

Covid-19 pandemic
The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to chop the policy interest rate by
100 basis points at an extraordinary meeting on 9 April, bringing the rate to
0.25%, an all-time low. The move is designed to help shield the economy from
the fallout of Covid-19. While market analysts had expected upcoming cuts,
the move was more aggressive than anticipated. The Bank last cut the key
rate by 100 basis points in March, in its first move to cushion the economic
blow inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic.
5.0 Duel demand and supply-side economic shocks from Covid-19, which have
significantly weakened Peru’s outlook and heightened risks to the global
4.0
economy, fueled the Banks move to ease monetary conditions. In addition,
low inflation, which the Bank expects to ease toward the lower bound of its
3.0
%
1.0%-3.0% target band due to soft domestic demand, has created space for
2.0 sizable easing.
1.0 The BCRP left open the possibility of further accommodative action, stating it
will pay “close attention to new information on inflation and its determinants to
0.0
Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Apr-20 continue expanding monetary stimulus”. It also stressed that it has additional
tools at its disposal to inject liquidity. The Bank has been carrying out liquidity
Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %.
Source: Peru Central Bank (BCRP). injection operations in recent weeks through security and currency repurchase
agreements.

The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 7 May.
Our panelists see the monetary policy rate at 0.67% at the end of 2020. For
2021, the panel projects a rate of 1.50% at the end of the year.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Merchandise exports fall at sharper pace in

February
Merchandise Trade Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 392 million surplus in February, larger
9 27 than January’s USD 287 million surplus and the USD 317 million surplus
Exports (yoy, right scale)
Imports (yoy, right scale)
recorded in the same month last year.
8 18
Merchandise exports fell 4.5% year-on-year in February (January: -1.6% year-

%
7 9
on-year), weighed down by diving foreign sales of fishing, agricultural and oil
and natural gas products, only partially offset by rising exports of textiles and
mining products. Meanwhile, merchandise imports slumped 7.3% annually in
6 0
February, contrasting January’s 3.6% growth, on the back of lower purchases
of capital and intermediate goods.
5 -9
In the 12 months leading up to February, the trade surplus was USD 6.5
Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the
12-month sum of exports and imports in %. billion, up from January’s USD 6.4 billion.
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see merchandise

exports falling 14.4% in 2020 and the trade balance recording a surplus of
USD 5.2 billion. For 2021, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 16.3%
and forecasts a trade surplus of USD 6.5 billion.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 191 195 214 225 229 220 240 252 266 281
GDP (PEN bn) 609 656 698 740 769 764 813 865 917 972
Total Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.9 3.0 2.3 3.4 2.9 -0.6 3.6 - - -
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 9.9 -0.5 0.7 0.8 2.4 6.9 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.4
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 4.7 9.1 7.4 2.4 0.8 -6.5 5.7 5.0 4.6 4.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 2.2 -2.3 3.9 3.2 1.3 -6.9 6.3 5.1 4.5 4.0
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) -0.9 -0.2 0.2 6.2 -1.7 -7.4 6.0 3.9 3.6 3.3
Commerce (ann. var. %) 3.1 2.8 1.6 2.6 3.0 -4.3 4.9 - - -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 2.0 11.5 13.0 8.9 9.1 - - - - -
Inflation (Core, ann. var. %, eop) 4.1 3.7 2.3 2.6 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, ann. var. %, eop) 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.2 - - - - -
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.75 4.25 3.25 2.75 2.25 0.67 1.50 2.43 3.16 3.89
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) 3.41 3.36 3.24 3.37 3.31 3.46 3.43 3.44 3.45 3.47
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.18 3.37 3.26 3.29 3.34 3.47 3.38 3.43 3.44 3.46
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -2.9 2.0 6.7 7.2 6.6 5.2 6.5 7.3 8.2 9.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -12.9 7.8 22.4 8.1 -2.9 -14.4 16.3 11.3 9.1 6.8
External Debt (USD bn) 73.1 74.6 76.5 77.8 80.0 83.1 89.4 105.6 120.3 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 1.8 -0.7 -6.5 -2.0 1.0 3.9 8.0 5.3 3.4
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.0 -0.4 -4.2 -1.9 0.2 3.9 5.9 4.8 3.8
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 6.5 3.2 9.3 5.4 5.4 7.4 - - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.9 -1.4 -2.8 -9.6 -6.9 -0.7 3.9 6.2 6.3 5.2
Manufacturing (ann. var. %) 4.0 -2.3 -4.7 -14.2 -8.6 -0.4 - - - -
Commerce (ann. var. %) 3.3 3.6 -1.3 -10.0 -2.2 2.8 5.3 10.1 4.1 0.2
Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.50 2.25 1.25 0.13 0.13 0.67 1.00 1.00 1.50 1.50
Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) 3.34 3.36 3.40 3.49 3.51 3.47 3.43 3.39 3.34 3.36
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 0.0 -1.9 -1.8 -1.5 -1.2 - - - -
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.0 0.0 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.7 - - - -
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 1.6 2.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.8 - - - -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 12.1 12.7 10.7 10.4 10.7 11.4 - - - -
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 10.5 10.4 9.6 9.2 9.3 9.7 - - - -
Economic Activity (IMAE, ann. var. %) 2.8 3.8 3.6 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.1 3.0 3.8 -
Unemployment (% of active population) 6.3 4.6 6.5 6.1 6.7 6.3 5.4 7.4 8.5 7.6
Business Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 49.8 49.1 45.2 46.8 47.0 49.7 50.8 52.9 48.2 21.8
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) -0.09 0.20 0.06 0.01 0.11 0.11 0.21 0.05 0.14 0.65
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -9.8 3.0 -3.1 2.4 3.7 -4.8 6.6 -1.6 -4.5 -

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17 - Q4 21 | var. in %. Real GDP growth in %
10 12
Peru Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
Latin America AGPV -1.7 3.9
World Barclays Capital -2.4 6.2
8
BCP/Credicorp Capital -3.8 -
5 CABI 0.2 2.8
0
0 DekaBank 0.5 3.9
DuckerFrontier -4.2 6.1
-4 EIU -2.5 5.4
Peru
Latin America Euromonitor Int. 1.0 3.0
World Fitch Solutions 1.1 2.9
-5 -8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Goldman Sachs -2.5 5.5
IEDEP - CCL -3.7 3.8
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Itaú Unibanco -1.3 5.6
JPMorgan -2.8 4.6
5 8 Julius Baer -1.0 4.0
Maximum Kiel Institute -3.5 4.0
Consensus
Minimum Macroconsult -14.7 7.2
0 Oxford Economics -2.2 7.4
6 Pezco Economics -4.5 5.6
Rimac Seguros -4.5 -
-5 S&P Global -3.1 5.5
Scotiabank -2.3 4.5
4 Standard Chartered -1.0 3.6
-10 Thorne & Associates -3.0 7.0
Maximum
Consensus
UBS -2.5 4.0
Minimum Summary
-15 2 Minimum -14.7 2.8
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Maximum 1.1 7.4
Median -2.4 4.3
5 | GDP 2020 | Panelist Distribution Consensus -2.4 4.7
History
60% 30 days ago 2.8 3.4
60 days ago 3.1 3.4
90 days ago 3.1 3.4
40% World Bank (Apr. 2020) -4.7 6.6
CAF (Apr. 2020) -2.4 4.5
IMF (Apr. 2020) -4.5 5.2
20%
0%
<-12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 >9.0
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America ergional
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco
Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %.


10
Barclays Capital -1.4 5.2 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.0 - -7.4 -
5
CABI - - -2.0 1.0
EIU -1.1 4.8 -4.5 6.0 0
Fitch Solutions - - -1.0 3.4
Goldman Sachs -0.7 4.5 -3.8 7.9 Peru
Latin America
IEDEP - CCL -2.7 - -9.5 3.9
Oxford Economics -2.6 8.4 -3.2 8.1 -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pezco Economics - - -6.1 7.1
Rimac Seguros -2.5 - -12.3 -
S&P Global -5.5 5.8 - -
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst
Scotiabank -1.0 3.8 -8.2 5.9
Thorne & Associates -1.0 7.0 -5.6 6.6 6
UBS -2.3 3.3 -6.7 5.0
2020 2021
Summary
Minimum -5.5 2.8 -12.3 1.0
4
Maximum 0.9 8.4 0.5 8.1
Median -1.7 4.6 -5.0 5.4
Consensus -2.0 4.9 -5.1 5.1
2
History
30 days ago 3.0 3.3 2.3 3.3
60 days ago 3.1 3.4 3.1 3.8
90 days ago 3.0 3.4 2.8 3.7 0
-2
30
Peru
Latin America
20
10
-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
Notes and sources
-3
Venezuela. All real sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2020 2021
7 Private consumption, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -6
9 Gross fixed investment, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

10 | Industry | variation in % Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance

Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance
12
variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP
Barclays Capital - - - - -4.1 -2.3
6
BCP/Credicorp Capital - - 7.0 - -7.0 -
CABI - - - - -4.0 -3.3
0
Credit Suisse - - 9.0 7.3 -4.1 -3.4
DuckerFrontier - - 8.7 7.5 - -
EIU -7.5 12.0 9.6 6.7 -11.5 -5.9
-6 Goldman Sachs - - - - -9.4 -3.0
Peru IEDEP - CCL -6.9 - 7.9 - -9.5 -4.1
Latin America Itaú Unibanco - - 8.5 7.5 -8.0 -2.0
-12 JPMorgan - - - - -5.0 -2.4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Macroconsult -13.3 3.6 - - - -
Oxford Economics - - 6.9 6.9 -4.5 -1.9
Pezco Economics - - - - -4.1 -3.4
11 | Industry | evol. of forecasts
Rimac Seguros -9.0 - - - -7.0 -
10
S&P Global - - 7.8 7.5 - -
Scotiabank -3.8 3.3 - - -6.3 -
Thorne & Associates - - 8.0 6.4 -10.0 -3.0
UBS -4.0 5.0 9.0 8.5 -5.4 -4.4
5
Summary
Minimum -13.3 3.3 6.9 6.4 -11.5 -5.9
Maximum -3.8 12.0 9.6 8.5 -4.0 -1.9
0
Median -7.2 4.3 8.0 7.3 -5.9 -3.3
Consensus -7.4 6.0 8.2 7.2 -6.5 -3.4
History
-5 30 days ago 1.3 3.1 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
60 days ago 1.5 3.1 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.8
2020 2021
90 days ago 1.6 3.1 6.6 6.5 -2.0 -1.7
-10
11
Peru
Latin America
5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

4
Notes and sources
-4 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela.
All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú)
and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus
Peru Consensus Forecast.
Latin America 10 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI.
-8 11 Manufacturing, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 12 Unemployment in metropolitan Lima and Callao, % of active population. Source: INEI.
13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP.

Inflation | annual variation of consumer price index in % 14 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in %

12
Consumer Prices Consumer Prices
8
AGPV 1.5 2.0 - -
BCP/Credicorp Capital 0.5 - 0.8 -
CABI 1.0 1.5 - - 4
DekaBank - - 1.6 2.5
DuckerFrontier - - 1.8 2.1 0
EIU 1.4 2.9 1.1 2.8 Peru
Latin America
-4
Goldman Sachs 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.7 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
IEDEP - CCL 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.2
Itaú Unibanco 1.4 1.7 - - 15 | Inflation | Q1 17 - Q4 21 | in %
10.0
Julius Baer - - 2.0 2.5 Peru
Kiel Institute - - 2.0 1.5 Latin America
Pezco Economics 1.9 2.0 - - 7.5
Rimac Seguros 1.8 - - -
S&P Global 2.0 2.5 2.0 2.3
Scotiabank 1.1 2.2 1.5 1.5 5.0
Thorne & Associates 1.3 2.5 1.5 2.2
UBS 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.7 2.5
Summary
Minimum 0.5 1.5 0.8 1.5
Maximum 2.3 2.9 2.2 2.8 0.0
Median 1.5 2.0 1.7 2.2 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Consensus 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.1
History 16 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst
30 days ago 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.3 4
60 days ago 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.4
90 days ago 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3
3
CAF (Apr. 2020) 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.0
IMF (Apr. 2020) 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.8
1
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
0

4
Notes and sources 1

Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP,
0
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
16 Inflation, evolution of 2020 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2021 eop inflation forecasts during the last 18 months.

Peru Peru AGPV 2.00 2.00
BCP/Credicorp Capital 0.50 -
15 12 Capital Economics 0.50 0.50
10 8 IEDEP - CCL 0.25 0.50
JPMorgan 0.25 -
5 4 Oxford Economics 1.00 1.25
Rimac Seguros 0.75 -
0 0 S&P Global 0.25 1.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Scotiabank 0.25 1.50
Thorne & Associates 0.00 2.50
20 | Int. Rate 2020 | evolution of fcst 21 | Int. Rate 2021 | evolution of fcst UBS 0.25 1.25
Summary
5 5
Minimum 0.00 0.50
Maximum 2.00 2.50
4 4 Median 0.50 1.50
Consensus 0.67 1.50
History
3 3
30 days ago 2.06 2.52
60 days ago 2.14 2.59
2 2 90 days ago 2.15 2.62
Maximum Maximum
1 1
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
0 0
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<-0.25 0.25 0.75 1.25 1.75 2.25 2.75 3.25 >3.25
Notes and sources
are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on
18 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).
19 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop).

23 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD 24 | Exchange Rate | PEN per USD Exchange Rate | PEN per USD
3.6 3.60 Individual Forecasts 2020 2021
AGPV 3.50 3.50
3.52 BCP/Credicorp Capital 3.40 -
3.2 Credit Suisse 3.55 3.50
3.44 EIU 3.52 3.40
3.36 Goldman Sachs 3.45 -
2.8 IEDEP - CCL 3.47 3.50
3.28
JPMorgan 3.55 -
2.4 3.20 Pezco Economics 3.50 3.50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Rimac Seguros 3.40 -
25 | PEN per USD 2020 | evol. of fcst 26 | PEN per USD 2021 | evol. of fcst Scotiabank 3.45 3.40
4.0 4.0
Maximum
Thorne & Associates 3.40 3.30
Maximum
Consensus Consensus UBS 3.45 3.40
Minimum Minimum Summary
Minimum 3.35 3.20
3.6 3.6
Maximum 3.60 3.65
Median 3.45 3.41
Consensus 3.46 3.43
History
3.2 3.2 30 days ago 3.39 3.40
60 days ago 3.36 3.37
90 days ago 3.37 3.38
2.8 2.8
27 | PEN per USD 2020 | Panelist Distribution
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<3.30 3.35 3.40 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.60 3.65 >3.70
Notes and sources
23 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).
24 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop).


% of GDP USD bn Peru
AGPV - - 5.0 5.0 3
BCP/Credicorp Capital -2.2 - 3.0 -
Credit Suisse -1.2 -1.8 - -
0
DekaBank -1.5 -1.5 - -
EIU -3.1 -2.6 2.7 4.5
Euromonitor Int. -2.0 -2.0 - -
-3
Fitch Solutions -2.0 -1.8 - -
Goldman Sachs -0.3 -1.1 7.0 5.9
JPMorgan -2.7 - - - -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Rimac Seguros -3.0 - - -
Scotiabank -1.7 -1.6 7.0 8.8
UBS 0.1 -0.5 7.1 8.4 29 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Summary
-1.0
Minimum -3.1 -2.6 2.7 4.5
Maximum 0.1 -0.5 7.1 8.8
Median -1.9 -1.8 5.0 6.2
Consensus -1.8 -1.7 5.2 6.5
-1.5
History
30 days ago -1.8 -1.7 6.0 6.3
60 days ago -1.9 -1.8 5.8 5.9
90 days ago -1.9 -1.8 5.6 5.8
-2.0
2020 2021
-2.5
75
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
50
25
-25
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2020 2021
6
Notes and sources
Venezuela. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts
28 Current account balance as % of GDP.
29 Current account balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4


Exports Imports 60
USD bn USD bn Peru
AGPV 40.0 45.0 35.0 40.0
BCP/Credicorp Capital 37.0 - 34.0 - 30
EIU 41.5 46.3 38.8 41.8
Goldman Sachs 42.3 45.1 35.3 39.2
Scotiabank 43.7 49.8 36.7 41.0
0
UBS 39.7 48.3 32.6 39.8
Summary
Minimum 37.0 45.0 32.6 39.2
Maximum 43.7 50.3 38.8 43.9
Median 41.5 47.3 35.3 40.5 -30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Consensus 40.8 47.5 35.6 41.0
History
30 days ago 48.4 50.8 42.5 44.5
60 days ago 49.0 50.9 43.2 45.0 33 | Exports | evolution of fcst
90 days ago 48.7 50.7 43.1 44.9
60
56
52
48
44
2020 2021
40
60
Peru
Latin America
30
-30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
50
45
Notes and sources

40
2020 2021


USD bn USD bn Peru
AGPV 69.0 70.0 - - 20
BCP/Credicorp Capital 68.0 - 77.0 -
Credit Suisse 63.3 63.8 83.0 83.4 15
EIU 66.8 72.5 - -
Fitch Solutions 69.8 72.1 - - 10
Goldman Sachs 69.8 71.0 90.6 98.9
Itaú Unibanco 70.0 71.0 - - 5
JPMorgan 70.4 - - -
UBS 65.1 69.9 81.8 85.9 0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Summary
Minimum 63.3 63.8 77.0 83.4
Maximum 71.9 75.1 90.6 98.9
Median 69.0 71.0 82.4 85.9 37 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
Consensus 68.5 70.6 83.1 89.4
80
History
30 days ago 70.6 71.3 83.1 85.5 2020 2021
60 days ago 70.8 72.6 82.2 86.7
75
90 days ago 70.2 71.7 82.7 86.0
70
65
60
60
Peru
Latin America
50
40
30
20
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
105
2020 2021
95
Notes and sources

85

Fact Sheet
General Data Peru in the Region

Official name: Republic of Peru Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Lima (10.4m)
Other cities: Arequipa (0.9m) Peru Peru
Trujillo (0.8m) 5.4% 4.5%
Area (km2): 1,285,216

19.7%
22.9%
Brazil Brazil
Colombia
6.4% 36.1%
Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Argentina
8.6%
Colombia
Aymara 8.4%
Measures: Metric system
Mexico Mexico
Time: GMT-5 20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2017)
Manufacturing
60
Investment

Government
Consumption
Services
0 0
Airports: 191
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani
Other Other 9.2%

Political Data 15.5% U.S.A. Brazil

U.S.A.
18.2% 5.6% 19.6%
President: Martín Vizcarra

Last elections: 10 April 2016 LatAm

Next elections: April 2021 13.7%
Exports EU-27 Other Imports EU-27
15.1% LatAm
Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores
20.2% 12.1%

Korea

6.0%

Other Asia
Other Asia
ex-Japan
ex-Japan
6.3%
10.1%
China
China
23.3%

Moody’s: A3 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable
Other Other
1.2% 2.3%
Manufact.
Food
Products
13.2%
11.6%
25.0%
Mineral
• Mining, energy and fish • Large informal economy Fuels
resources • Inadequate infrastructure 12.0%
Exports
Imports
• Low public debt • High dependence on commodity
Mineral

• Strong growth potential prices Fuels

8.7%
Ores &
Manufact.
. . Metals
Products
52.0%
74.0%

FOCUSECONOMICS Venezuela April 2020
Venezuela
Venezuela
Outlook worsens
• Venezuela’s depression likely worsened in the first quarter owing to the
fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. Plummeting global oil prices amid the
price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and muted demand for fuel
likely battered the external sector, which was already reeling due to U.S.
sanctions. Moreover, Rosneft, the Russian state oil producer that handled
about half of Venezuela’s crude exports, announced on 28 March that
it had transferred all its assets in the country to a new Russian state-
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages controlled entity, heightening uncertainty over how oil will be shipped into
2013-15 2016-18 2019-21
international markets going forward. This, combined with government
Population (million): 30.2 29.9 26.1 measures to shield households and businesses from the economic effects
GDP (USD bn): 257 174 63
of Covid-19, is likely putting enormous pressure on the public accounts.
GDP growth (%): -3.0 -17.5 -17.3 Exacerbating matters, in mid-March the IMF rejected the country’s
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -10.1 -18.6 -20.9 request for a USD 5.0 billion loan to deal with the pandemic, citing lack
Inflation (%): 71.7 2,221 33,972 of recognition of the Maduro government by the international community.
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.4 4.8 5.3
• The economy will contract for the seventh year running in 2020. Low
Nicolas J. Aguilar global oil prices and U.S. sanctions will hinder oil output, the chief driver
Economist of economic activity. Government consumption should fall as a result,
complicating the state’s capacity to provide vital services to fight the
pandemic, ahead of legislative elections scheduled for later this year. The
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts LatinFocus Consensus projects the economy to contract 17.6% in 2020,
10 5
which is down 6.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021,
0 0 the panel sees GDP shrinking 1.2%.
-10 -5
• Inflation eased to 9,585% in December (November: 14,291%), the last
-20 -10 month for which data is available. The Central Bank’s contractionary
policy and liberalization of FX controls earlier in 2019 helped contain
-30 -15
2020 2021
hyperinflation to a certain degree. Going forward, monetary financing of
-40
-20 the fiscal deficit in order to combat the health crisis is likely to stoke price
GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 pressures. Our panel sees inflation at 4,030% by the end of 2020 and at
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. 2,512% by the end of 2021.
• The bolivar depreciated further over the past month, as plummeting oil
Oil Production Oil Price
prices hammered the country’s main source of foreign currency. On 17
2.5 120
April, the VES ended the day at 125,975 per USD, while the parallel
90
market rate came in at 130,033 VES per USD. The gap between the
2.0
official and parallel market has widened as of late, after having moderated
1.5 60
last year thanks to the introduction of “exchange tables” run by banks in
May 2019. Our panelists project the official rate to end 2020 around 1.9
1.0 30 million VES per USD.
0.5 0
Q4 16 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Oil production, millions of barrels Venezuelan oil price, USD per barrel.
per day.

FISCAL | Economic depression set to deepen despite government measures

to fight Covid-19
On 17 March, a nationwide quarantine was declared by the government to fight
the Covid-19 health crisis. Under the restrictions, the country’s borders have been
closed, only essential businesses are allowed to continue operating and citizens
can only leave their homes to purchase essential goods. Meanwhile, all rents,
capital and loan interest payments have been suspended, while the government
has vowed to cover the payroll of small- and medium-sized enterprises.
The announced measures come against the backdrop of the collapse in oil
prices and departure of Rosneft, the Russian company that handled about half of
Venezuela’s crude exports, which has led to a fall in output in PDVSA, the state-
oil producer, effectively cutting the government’s main source of revenue. In turn,
authorities have likely resorted to monetary financing to pay for the emergency
measures, after the IMF rejected the country’s request for a USD 5.0 billion loan to
deal with the pandemic in mid-March. The combination of plummeting oil output,
additional money printing, and shortages of food and medical equipment is setting
the stage for a resurgence of hyperinflation this year.
Venezuela’s economic depression will likely deepen this year owing to the global
health crisis, with output contracting for the seventh year running. Moreover, the
risk of widespread social disorder is elevated, as a prolonged quarantine would
exacerbate the dire economic scenario at a time when the U.S. is escalating its
pressure on the country. Against this backdrop, Alberto J. Rojas, head economist
for Venezuela and Peru at Credit Suisse, noted:
“We have long been of the view that regime change in the near -term is unlikely, but
we think recent events increase the probability that a restart of political negotiations
takes place. Foreign pressure, the health emergency, and the lack of oil export
inflows, impose a liquidity crunch of a magnitude we have not seen before in the
country. Moreover, domestic pressure could heighten; protests might erupt again,
if as we fear, the already poor living conditions worsen. We are reluctant to think
Chavismo would approach the negotiating table with an open mind. However,
desperate times might call for desperate measures.”
FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 17.6% in 2020 and 1.2%
in 2021.

Annual Data 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Real Sector
Population (million) 29.8 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.3 28.9 27.5 25.9 24.8
GDP per capita (USD) 7,870 7,030 10,568 9,092 4,755 3,411 2,559 2,325 2,355
GDP (USD bn) 234 212 324 279 144 98 70 60 58
GDP (VES bn) 0.02 0.03 0.08 0.28 2.01 - - - -
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 37 35 165 250 615 - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.3 -3.9 -6.2 -17.0 -15.7 -19.6 -30.6 -17.6 -1.2
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -1.9 -8.8 -11.8 -26.3 -21.1 -18.2 -28.6 -16.0 -2.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 4.7 -3.4 -8.9 -19.4 -16.2 -20.1 -31.4 -16.1 -1.7
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.3 0.6 -3.2 -14.7 -7.2 -9.1 -23.5 -12.0 -4.7
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -9.0 -16.9 -20.4 -45.1 -45.3 -37.5 -36.1 -22.8 -4.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -6.2 -4.7 -0.9 -11.7 0.0 -10.8 -27.5 -18.7 1.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -9.7 -18.5 -23.1 -50.1 -34.7 0.3 -23.2 -16.5 3.6
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 7.5 7.0 6.8 7.3 7.2 6.9 22.4 24.0 24.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -12.9 -15.6 -16.8 -18.2 -20.7 -22.0 -23.3 -17.5
Public Debt (% of GDP) 31.3 28.5 74.7 92.3 120 135 169 188 186
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 70 64 101 159 1,121 63,257 4,946 9,693 8,738
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 56 69 181 274 863 130,060 9,585 4,030 2,512
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 41 62 122 255 438 65,374 143,099 18,320 14,895
90-Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 14.74 14.84 14.59 14.62 14.77 15.00 24.00 - -
Stock Market (ann. var. of IBC, %) 480 41 278 117 3,884 126,985 5,521 - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 6.3 6.3 6.3 10.0 10.0 638 46,621 1,890,955 67.6. mn.
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 6.1 6.3 6.3 9.3 10.0 81.9 15,910 536,546 34.8. mn.
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 62.3 170 833 3,165 111,413 730 54,703 1,998,099 69.5. mn.
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.0 2.3 -5.6 -0.4 6.1 8.7 8.0 3.2 4.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 4.6 4.9 -16.1 -3.9 8.7 8.6 5.6 1.9 2.8
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 31.6 27.4 3.9 11.0 22.0 20.9 15.6 10.0 10.5
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 88.8 74.7 37.2 27.4 34.0 33.7 24.9 18.0 19.2
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 57.2 47.3 33.3 16.4 12.0 12.8 9.3 8.0 8.8
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -9.3 -15.9 -50.1 -26.4 24.2 -1.0 -26.2 -27.6 6.9
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -13.3 -17.4 -29.5 -50.9 -26.6 6.5 -27.6 -13.3 9.2
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 98.8 88.4 44.7 35.2 46.7 63.6 57.8 35.0 46.7
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.7 -1.0 0.8 1.1 -0.1 1.0 - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 21.5 22.1 16.4 11.0 9.7 8.8 7.5 6.4 6.4
International Reserves (months of imports) 4.5 5.6 5.9 8.1 9.6 8.3 9.7 9.5 8.7
External Debt (USD bn) 122 120 125 128 113 111 111 110 104
External Debt (% of GDP) 52.1 56.7 38.6 45.7 78.7 113 157 182 178
Quarterly Data Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 21
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -28.7 -19.6 -20.5 -14.1 -11.2 -4.5 -1.5 0.1 1.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 9,585 2,378 2,829 3,927 4,030 9,267 7,563 5,011 2,512
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 46,621 80,270 270,638 818,518 1,890,955 - - - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, aop) 31,370 71,415 175,454 544,578 1,354,736 - - - -
Monthly Data Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 28,486 19,364 10,535 9,500 7,616 9,854 2,872 1,911 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 19.4 34.6 52.2 22.6 25.7 31.5 - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 76,597 58,561 39,114 25,450 14,291 9,585 - - -
Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 11,264 22,187 20,746 23,403 38,981 46,621 74,990 73,652 80,270
Non-official Exchange Rate (VES per USD, eop) 12,610 25,950 21,299 24,754 41,594 54,703 75,016 76,472 87,397
Venezuelan Oil Price (USD per barrel) 59.8 54.8 56.9 57.4 51.1 55.4 55.8 45.9 25.6
Oil Production (mn barrels per day) 0.76 0.74 0.64 0.69 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.76 0.66
International Reserves (USD bn) 8.2 8.3 8.0 8.0 7.6 7.5 6.8 7.0 7.0
Notes:
1. On 20 August 2018, authorities overhauled the currency by removing five zeroes from the Bolívar Fuerte (VEF) and renaming it as the Bolívar Soberano (VES).
Exchange rate historical data through 2017 are expressed in VEF. Historical data and forecasts for 2018 onwards are expressed in VES.
2. Given the current economic conditions in Venezuela and the limited availability of official data, it has become extremely difficult to compute adequate forecasts,
particularly for the long term. Therefore, FocusEconomics has discontinued providing forecasts for the 2022-2024 period temporarily. We hope to resume providing
these forecasts once reliable data becomes available.
3. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

AGPV -15.5 1.9
0
Andes Investments -12.6 -4.4
Capital Economics -20.0 10.0
0 Credit Suisse -20.0 -3.0
-10 DekaBank -20.5 -5.6
Dinámica Venezuela -14.5 -7.8
-20
DuckerFrontier -22.0 -0.9
-20 Ecoanalítica -24.8 -1.0
Venezuela
Econométrica -7.3 -
-30 Euromonitor Int. -12.6 -2.4
Latin America Venezuela
World Latin America Julius Baer -15.5 -2.0
-40 -40
World Kiel Institute -35.0 10.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Q4 21 Moody's Analytics -10.9 4.2
Novo Banco -15.0 -5.0
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Oxford Economics -31.4 -2.0
Polinomics -15.0 -
30 45 Torino Capital -14.1 -7.0
Consensus
Maximum UBS -10.0 -5.0
15 30 Minimum Summary
Minimum -35.0 -7.8
Maximum -7.3 10.0
0 15
Median -15.3 -2.2
Consensus -17.6 -1.2
-15 0 History
30 days ago -11.0 -2.1
Consensus
-30 -15 60 days ago -10.9 -1.8
Maximum 90 days ago -10.4 -1.5
Minimum Additional Forecasts
-45 -30
IMF (April. 2020) -15.0 -5.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr
5 | Consumption | variation in % 6 | Investment | variation in %
20 60
Venezuela
Latin America
30
0

-30
Venezuela General:
Latin America Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2021 unless otherwise stated. The
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector data
-40 -60 are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela), Statistical
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística) and Economy and Finance
Ministry (Mppbf, Ministerio del Poder Popular de Economía y Finanzas).
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of fcst
Source: BCV
14 40
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7
20 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BCV
7 Private consumption, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last
18 months.
0
8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the
0 last 18 months.
9 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE
-7
10 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP. Source:
Mppbf
-20 11 Public debt % of GDP. Source: Mppbf
-14
12 Unemployment, % of active population, evolution of 2020 and 2021
2020 2021 2020 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
13 Balance of non-financial central government as % of GDP, evolution of
-21 -40
2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.
14 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during
the last 18 months.


Consumption Investment Fiscal Balance Public Debt
variation in % variation in % % of GDP % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
AGPV - - - - -15.0 -10.0 160.0 150.0
Andes Investments -12.3 -4.0 -16.4 -6.0 -18.1 -12.0 167.0 151.3
Capital Economics - - - - -50.0 -40.0 280.0 300.0
Credit Suisse -20.9 -3.1 -17.9 -2.0 - - - -
DekaBank - - - - - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela -16.8 -9.6 -58.6 -33.2 - - - -
DuckerFrontier -18.0 -0.4 - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica -26.6 -2.1 -19.9 -0.1 - - - -
Econométrica -6.4 - - - - - - -
Euromonitor Int. -13.0 -2.5 - - - - - -
Julius Baer - - - - - - - -
Kiel Institute - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics -10.4 2.8 -10.5 8.2 -17.3 -14.5 - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics -32.4 -2.0 -31.6 7.0 -17.3 -10.5 332.0 319.6
Polinomics - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital -4.1 5.2 -4.5 -5.2 - - 90.4 94.1
UBS - - - - -22.0 -18.0 98.7 103.6
Summary
Minimum -32.4 -9.6 -58.6 -33.2 -50.0 -40.0 90.4 94.1
Maximum -4.1 5.2 -4.5 8.2 -15.0 -10.0 332.0 319.6
Median -14.9 -2.1 -17.9 -2.0 -17.7 -13.2 163.5 150.7
Consensus -16.1 -1.7 -22.8 -4.5 -23.3 -17.5 188.0 186.4
History
30 days ago -11.6 -0.4 -15.1 -1.2 -16.9 -10.8 182.1 154.7
60 days ago -11.7 -0.4 -15.3 -0.8 -16.5 -11.1 183.5 155.1
90 days ago -11.1 -0.4 -13.8 -1.6 -16.3 -13.5 184.1 156.8
9 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 10 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 11 | Public Debt | % of GDP
35 10 200
Venezuela
Latin America
0 150
25
-10 100
15
-20 50
Venezuela
Latin America
5 -30 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
12 | Unemployment | evol. of forecasts 13 | Fiscal Balance | evol. of forecasts 14 | Public Debt | evol. of forecasts
31 -7 240
2020 2021
-12 200
26
-17 160
21
-22 120
2020 2021
2020 2021
16 -27 80
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

Monetary Sector | Additional Forecasts
Money Supply and Inflation 15 | Money Supply | variation in %

Money Supply Consumer Prices
80,000
AGPV 1,562 1,115 1,928 2,122
60,000
Andes Investments 34,075 36,700 9,945 7,181
Capital Economics - - - -
Credit Suisse - - - -
40,000
DekaBank - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 3,816 - 1,055 -
DuckerFrontier - - - -
20,000
Ecoanalítica 10,194 1,590 11,896 3,721
Econométrica - - - -
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
0
Julius Baer - - - - 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Kiel Institute - - - -
Moody's Analytics - - 1,822 649
Novo Banco - - - - 16 | Inflation | Q4 17-Q4 21 | in %
Oxford Economics 2,979 1,376 2,028 463 400
Polinomics - - 2,500 -
Torino Capital 5,533 2,912 1,069 938
UBS - - - - 300
Summary
Minimum 1,562 1,115 1,055 463
Maximum 34,075 36,700 11,896 7,181
200
Median 4,675 1,590 1,978 1,530
Consensus 9,693 8,738 4,030 2,512
History
100
30 days ago 2,433 1,138 3,852 1,924
60 days ago 7,946 7,056 2,862 1,112
90 days ago 27,538 42,606 121,400 143,925
0
Q4 17 Q4 18 Q4 19 Q4 20 Q4 21
17 | Current Account | USD bn

40
25
10
-5
-20
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
18 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
Notes and sources 2020 2021
4
Venezuela. Long-term forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators are based on both end-of-period and average-of-
period projections. All monetary and external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCV, Banco Central de Venezuela).
Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2
15 Money supply M2, annual variation in %.
16 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (eop), in thousands.
17 Current account balance in USD bn.
18 Current account balance in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. 0
20 Imports, annual variation in %.
22 Exports in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. -2
23 Imports in USD bn, change in 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months. Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

External Sector | Current Account, Trade Balance and International Reserves
Current
Current Account, Trade Balance andAccount
Oil Price Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn
Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021
AGPV -3.0 4.0 - - 17.0 30.0 - - 6.8 6.8
Andes Investments 6.9 5.4 8.4 8.0 20.2 21.0 11.8 13.0 7.6 8.4
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse -2.3 -1.0 - - - - - - 5.5 5.0
DekaBank 1.5 3.4 - - - - - - - -
Dinámica Venezuela 1.2 -0.6 13.3 8.7 23.7 20.4 10.4 11.7 7.0 6.1
DuckerFrontier - - - - - - - - - -
Ecoanalítica 2.2 4.3 4.4 6.4 8.0 10.0 3.6 3.6 4.6 6.0
Econométrica - - - - - - - - - -
Euromonitor Int. 5.4 6.5 23.2 23.2 31.6 30.3 8.4 7.2 6.1 5.3
Julius Baer - - - - - - - - - -
Kiel Institute - - - - - - - - - -
Moody's Analytics -0.5 0.5 - - - - - - - -
Novo Banco - - - - - - - - - -
Oxford Economics 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.3 6.3 7.7 4.6 5.4 - -
Polinomics - - - - - - - - - -
Torino Capital 6.8 4.7 11.3 9.0 21.8 22.6 10.5 13.6 6.5 6.6
UBS 1.8 1.8 8.4 5.0 15.4 12.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Summary
Minimum -3.0 -1.0 1.7 2.3 6.3 7.7 3.6 3.6 4.6 5.0
Maximum 6.9 6.5 23.2 23.2 31.6 30.3 11.8 13.6 7.6 8.4
Median 1.5 3.4 8.4 8.0 18.6 20.7 8.4 7.2 6.7 6.3
Consensus 1.9 2.8 10.0 10.5 18.0 19.2 8.0 8.8 6.4 6.4
History
30 days ago 3.7 2.8 12.4 11.0 21.1 20.3 8.8 9.3 6.8 6.9
60 days ago 4.5 3.2 11.8 10.7 21.0 20.6 9.2 9.9 7.1 8.0
90 days ago 4.1 2.3 11.9 11.5 20.9 20.4 9.0 8.9 7.2 8.1
19 | Exports | variation in % 20 | Imports | variation in % 21 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
60 75 30
Venezuela Venezuela
Latin America Latin America Venezuela
Latin America
50
30
20
25
0
10
-30
-25
-60 -50 0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
22 | Exports | evol. of fcst 23 | Imports | evol. of fcst 24 | Int. Reserves | evolution of fcst
40 20 16
2020 2021
2020 2021
32 15 12
24 10 8
2020 2021
16 4
5
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr

Fact Sheet
General Data Venezuela in the Region*

Official name: Bolivarian Republic of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Venezuela
Capital: Caracas (2.9m) Venezuela Venezuela
4.4% 1.4%
Other cities: Maracaibo (2.1m)
Valencia (1.7m)
Area (km2): 912,050 Other Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 27.5 27.1% 23.9%
Population density (per km2, 2019): 30.2 Brazil

Brazil
35.6%
33.4%
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): -0.2
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 71.0 Colombia
6.3%
Argentina
Language: Spanish Colombia
Argentina
8.4%
Mexico Mexico
Time: GMT-4.30 20.0% 24.4%
Economic Structure
Communications (2018)
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
60 60
Government
Consumption
Services
0 -30
Airports: 444
Railways (km): 447
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: La Guaira, Maracaibo
Political Data Other

16.7%
Other
President: Nicolás Maduro Moros 28.8% U.S.A.
34.9%
Last elections: 20 May 2018 LatAm U.S.A.
7.8% 42.2%
Next elections: 2023 Exports Imports
Central Bank President: Calixto Ortega Sánchez Singapore
6.4%

Argentina
5.5%

China
Brazil
China
10.9%
6.1%
5.8%
Mexico
Other
India LatAm
8.8% 10.2%

Moody’s: C Stable
S&P Global Ratings: SD N.M. Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: WD -

Other Other

Food
16.6%
8.8%

• Largest proven oil reserves in • Dependence on oil
the world • Deep political polarization
Exports
• Abundant wealth in natural • Runaway inflation Imports
resources • Exchange rate misalignments
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
87.9% Products
74.6%
*Note: Regional calculation includes Venezuela

Other Countries
FOCUSECONOMICS Bolivia April 2020
Bolivia
Bolivia
Outlook worsens
• Although economic activity started 2020 on a somewhat healthy note
on the back of solid manufacturing output, prospects for this year
have suddenly deteriorated amid the spread of Covid-19 and the
state of emergency declared on 25 March to contain it. Subsequently,
the government unveiled a series of fiscal measures to mitigate the
adverse economic effects, which included cash transfers to mostly poor
households and deferrals of some tax obligations for businesses. This
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages comes on the heels of already-weakening activity in the final quarter of
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
2019 which saw annual growth slow to a meager 0.4% (Q3: +2.3% year-
Population (million): 11.2 11.7 12.3 on-year) on plunging capital spending, marking the softest expansion in
GDP (USD bn): 37.3 41.4 44.8
nearly two decades. Against this backdrop, S&P Global Ratings cut the
GDP growth (%): 4.2 1.0 2.9 country’s debt rating from BB- to B on 17 April while the 3 May re-run of
Public Debt (% of GDP): 50.5 63.3 70.7 the controversial October election of last year has been postponed until
Inflation (%): 2.9 2.0 3.0 sometime in the summer.
• After over three decades of uninterrupted growth, the economy is now
Javier Colato
Economist expected to contract this year due to the impact from the coronavirus
pandemic and collapse of global hydrocarbon prices, which are set to deal
a blow to both private sector spending and exports. The reemergence
of political turmoil and social unrest pose additional risks to the outlook.
9 6
FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to shrink 2.0% in 2020,
Bolivia
Latin America which is down 4.9 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and grow
World
6 2.7% in 2021.
3
3 • Inflation inched up to 1.4% in March (February: 1.3%). In late March, in

0
response to the pandemic, the Central Bank purchased BOB 3.5 billion
0 (over USD 500 million) in bonds from pension funds to prop up liquidity
2020 2021
in the banking system, and also granted a BOB 7.0 billion (about USD 1
-3
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
-3
billion) emergency loan to the government. Inflation is expected to remain
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 relatively contained going forward. Our panel forecasts inflation will end
Source: INE. forecasts during the last 18 months.
2020 at 2.4% and 2021 at 2.8%.

15 4.3
Bolivia
Latin America
3.8
10
3.3
5
2.8
2020 2021
0 2.3
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Inflation, evolution of 2020 and 2021
annual variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: INE.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 33.1 34.1 37.5 40.3 40.9 40.7 42.7 44.0 44.7 45.6
GDP (BOB bn) 228 235 259 278 283 281 296 313 332 352
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.2 3.4 4.7 4.3 3.7 0.4 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 5.0 3.4 11.8 3.2 -3.5 -6.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -5.9 -5.7 -5.0 5.2 -1.8 -8.7 3.3 3.5 4.0 4.4
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 16.3 -3.9 8.2 5.4 -7.5 - - - - -
Prime Lending Rate (in %, eop) 8.07 7.95 8.11 8.04 8.40 8.10 8.00 7.94 7.91 -
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, eop) 6.90 6.93 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.96 7.28 7.57 7.86
Exchange Rate (BOB per USD, aop) 6.90 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.91 6.93 7.12 7.42 7.71
External Sector
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -0.4 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2
External Debt (USD bn) 9.9 11.0 13.0 13.3 14.7 15.7 16.9 18.7 20.7 22.6
0
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Exchange Rate | BOB per USD 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
5 8.2 15
10
7.7
0
5
7.2
0
-5
6.7
Bolivia -5
Bolivia
Latin America
Latin America
-10 6.2 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from the National Statistical Institute
(INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Refinitiv. See below for details. Forecasts
1 Fiscal balance as % of GDP. Source: BCB.
2 Exchange rate, BOB per USD (eop). Source: Refinitiv.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCB.

Fact Sheet
General Data Bolivia in the Region

Official name: Plurinational State of Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Bolivia
Bolivia Bolivia
Capital (Administrative): La Paz (1.8 m) 1.9% 0.5%
Capital (Judicial): Sucre (0.2 m)

Other cities: Cochabamba (1.2 m)
Area (km2): 1,098,581 Other Other
26.4% 23.4%
Population (million, 2019 est.): 11.6
Brazil Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2019): 10.5 34.9% 36.1%
Colombia
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 70.4 Argentina 6.4%
Argentina
Language: Spanish, Quechua and Colombia 8.6%
Aymara 8.4%
Mexico Mexico
Measures: Metric system 20.9% 24.7%
Time: GMT-4
Economic Structure
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 100.8 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100 120
80 90
Energy (2017)
Manufacturing
60
Investment
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 343

40 Other Industry 30 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 8.3 Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 77.3

Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 102.3 20
Services
0 Private
Consumption
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 21.7
0 -30
Airports: 855
Chief Ports: Puerto Aguirre
Japan
Other 7.0% U.S.A.
Political Data 11.0%
U.S.A.
5.3%
Other 5.3%
15.1%
Colombia EU-27
Australia
President: Jeanine Añez* 5.8% 5.1%

13.8%
Peru
Last elections: 20 October 2019
EU-27 6.1%

5.7% Other Asia

Next elections: Summer 2020 ex-Japan
Argentina Exports Argentina
Imports 8.2%
Central Bank President: Guillermo Aponte 17.2% India
8.7%
7.0%
*Interim president since 12 November China

5.2%
Brazil
16.6%
China
Other 21.8%

Brazil LatAm
18.6% Other
10.3%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings LatAm
6.1%

Moody’s: B1 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: B+ Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: B+ Negative Other Other
0.5% 1.4%
Manufact.
Products Food
5.0% 8.0%
18.7% Mineral
Fuels
• Rich in natural resources • Landlocked country
10.5%
Ores &
• Improving currency autonomy • Highly dependent on the Metals
• Exchange rate and price stability hydrocarbon sector Exports 34.1%
Imports
• Elevated levels of poverty
Mineral
Fuels Manufact.
41.6% Products
80.1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Ecuador April 2020
Ecuador
Outlook worsens
Ecuador
• Prospects for this year have further deteriorated due to Covid-19 and
the oil price shocks, after the economy contracted at the quickest rate in
over three years in the final quarter of 2019. To contain the spread of the
virus, the authorities closed all borders on 18 March and implemented
confinement measures. Following the announcement of an austerity
package in mid-March aimed at mitigating the impact of the oil price
shock, the government implemented several measures to ease the
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages financial burden for the most vulnerable groups, as well as for businesses,
through cash transfers and credit lines. On 10 April, the government also
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
Population (million): 16.8 17.5 18.3 confirmed its intention to restructure external public debt to free up more
GDP (USD bn): 103.9 104.5 112.2
resources to combat the crisis. Consequently, Fitch Ratings, Moody’s
GDP growth (%): 0.8 -1.1 2.2 and S&P Global Ratings all downgraded the sovereign’s credit rating,
Public Debt (% of GDP) 42.9 53.9 53.2 highlighting the increased risk of default.
Inflation (%): 0.6 0.3 1.6
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.1 -0.9 0.9
External Debt (% of GDP): 37.9 51.9 55.3 • GDP is expected to contract this year as the impact of the Covid-19
pandemic and the plunge in global oil prices depress the economy.
Lockdown measures will cripple demand, while low oil prices will reduce
a significant chunk of export and fiscal revenues. High sovereign debt risk
poses a further threat to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project
GDP to contract 5.2% in 2020, which is down 5.2 percentage points from
last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.0%.
• Inflation came in at 0.2% in March, contrasting February’s 0.2% decrease

in consumer prices. Looking ahead, consumer prices are seen falling
amid plunging domestic demand and continued low commodity prices.
FocusEconomics panelists project consumer prices to fall 0.3% by end-
2020, while they see inflation ending 2021 at 0.9%.
Hanna Andersson FISCAL | Government announces relief measures amid oil price and
Economist coronavirus shocks; external debt challenges mount
Public finances were already tight before the outbreak of the coronavirus
pandemic, which, combined with the crash in oil prices, is battering Ecuador’s
economy and will reduce a large chunk of its fiscal and export revenues.
Moreover, Covid-19 and the associated confinement measures restricting
commerce and movement has added further fiscal stress. In response, over
the course of March and beginning of April, the authorities laid out several
economic measures to cushion the fallout from these shocks.
First, in a bid to mitigate the impact of the oil price shock, on 10 March the
government announced an austerity package aimed at generating USD 2.2
billion in fiscal savings, including higher income taxes for firms in selected
sectors; a budget cut of USD 1.4 billion; as well as new financing and
refinancing of some current obligations, worth around 2.5% of GDP. Moreover,
monetary support and distribution of food packages for vulnerable families,

the postponement of payroll contributions for firms and the creation of a USD
50 million credit line for SMEs were also announced.
Meanwhile, after receiving pressure from the National Assembly to suspend

payments on the external debt and prioritize health spending, on 8 April the
authorities asked its creditors to defer interest payments on external bonds
until mid-August; two days later, President Lenin Moreno announced the
government intended to restructure the external debt. In light of this, the three
major credit rating agencies downgraded the sovereign’s debt, highlighting the
increased risk of default: Fitch Ratings downgraded it from C to RD; Moody’s
lowered the rating from Caa1 to Caa3 and changed the outlook to negative
from stable; while S&P Global Ratings downgraded the rating to ‘SD/SD’ from
‘CCC-/C’.
The president also announced on 10 April a new set of economic measures to

mitigate the crisis, including temporary taxes for firms earning more than USD
1.0 billion and workers earning more than USD 500 monthly aimed at boosting
cash transfer programs. Lastly, the government will also send a set of reforms
to be approved by the National Assembly, including the prohibition of evictions
due to delays in paying rents, healthcare coverage, and the expansion of
the unemployment insurance, while also seeking new multilateral funding to
provide liquidity to domestic firms.
Commenting on the measures implemented, Tiago Severo, an economist at

Goldman Sachs, noted:
“The measures may provide needed relief for liquidity/credit strapped

businesses and individuals during the current challenging circumstances,
but they are unlikely to meaningfully alter Ecuador’s bleak outlook. The
country is facing a “perfect storm” represented by the combination of three
interrelated negative shocks: the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic at
home, the plunge in global oil prices, and the shutdown of private external
funding sources. Meanwhile, a large landslide has temporarily halted the
operation of Ecuador’s oil pipelines. Against this backdrop, we believe it
would be very difficult for the government to commit scarce fiscal resources
to keep servicing debt obligations. Hence, among other things, we expect the
authorities to request a “holiday” on coupon and principal payments to private
and official creditors for the remainder of the year, and possibly until the next
administration comes to office by mid-2021.”
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast project GDP to

contract 5.2% in 2020, which is down 5.2 percentage points from last month’s
estimate. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.0%.
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % REAL SECTOR | Economy contracts for second consecutive quarter in
7.0 Q4 2019
The economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter in the fourth
3.5
quarter of 2019, falling 1.0% on an annual basis, down from the revised 0.3%
decline in Q3 (previously reported: -0.1% year-on-year) and marking the
sharpest contraction since Q3 2016. Taking the year as a whole, the economy
0.0
%
grew a moderate 0.1% in 2019, down markedly from 2018’s 1.3% expansion.
-3.5
Shriveling domestic demand was again behind the downturn. Government
spending contracted at a faster rate of 5.8% in Q4 after plunging a revised
-7.0
Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 4.3% in Q3 (previously reported: -2.8% yoy) as the government continued its
efforts to narrow the fiscal deficit with IMF-backed policy reforms. Meanwhile,
Source: Ecuador Central Bank (BCE) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. the fall in fixed investment slowed somewhat in Q4, contracting 2.8%, which

was up from Q3’s revised 3.6% decrease (previously reported: -3.0% yoy),
and household spending decelerated to 0.4% in Q4, up from the revised 1.5%
expansion in Q3 (previously reported: +1.1% yoy).
On the external front, export growth decelerated in Q4, moderating to 4.0%

from a revised 6.7% in Q3 (previously reported: +4.1% yoy) amid slowing oil
production. Meanwhile, imports fell 0.7% in the same period, down from Q3’s
upwardly revised 1.5% expansion (previously reported: + 0.3% yoy).
Looking ahead, the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic and the
sharp fall in global oil prices are set to deliver a heavy blow to the economy
Economic Activity | variation in % this year. The government has limited fiscal space to mitigate the effects of
4 the confinement measures implemented to combat the spread of the virus,
which will severely hamper domestic demand. Meanwhile, uncertainties about
forthcoming financial assistance to narrow the existing financing gap has
2
heightened the risk of debt restructuring or default.
%
REAL SECTOR | Economic activity continues to fall in February
0
In February, economic activity declined 0.7% over the same month of last
year, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC) released
Year-on-year Annual Average
-2
by the Central Bank of Ecuador. The result was above January’s revised fall
of 0.9% (previously reported: -0.1% year-on-year).
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity

in %. In month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity was flat in
Source: Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and FocusEconomics February, following January’s revised 0.1% rise (previously reported: +0.7%
calculations.
month-on-month). Meanwhile, annual average economic activity fell 0.7% in
February, which was down from January’s 0.5% decrease.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation returns in March

0.8 1.2
Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in March, contrasting
February’s 0.2% fall. March’s reading chiefly reflected higher prices for food
0.4 0.6
and non-alcoholic beverages.
% %
Meanwhile, inflation came in at 0.2% in March, contrasting February’s 0.2%
0.0 0.0
drop in consumer prices. Annual average variation in consumer prices
remained stable at 0.2% in March, matching February’s figure.
-0.4 -0.6
Panelists participating in the LatinFocus Consensus Forecast see consumer

-0.8 -1.2
Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 prices falling 0.3% by end-2020, which is down 0.8 percentage points from
last month’s estimate. The panel projects inflation ending 2021 at 0.9%.
Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month changes of consumer price index in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INEC).

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 99.3 99.9 104.3 107.6 107.4 101.7 104.4 107.9 112.0 116.8
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) -2.4 0.7 4.4 3.1 -0.1 -5.4 2.7 3.3 3.8 4.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 0.1 -1.2 2.4 1.3 0.1 -5.2 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.2 -4.3 5.5 2.2 -0.9 -6.8 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.1 -2.4 3.7 2.1 1.5 -5.1 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.1 -0.2 3.2 3.5 -2.5 -1.1 -0.1 1.1 1.9 2.6
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -6.2 -8.9 5.3 2.0 -3.4 -7.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.6 1.4 0.7 1.2 5.2 -9.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 4.6
Industry (ann. var. %) -0.5 -1.5 0.0 -1.0 0.1 -8.1 6.2 4.0 3.0 -
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 4.8 5.2 4.6 3.7 3.8 8.9 8.3 7.2 6.5 5.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -7.3 -4.5 -1.2 -2.0 -4.6 -2.8 -1.5 -0.7 0.1
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 3.4 1.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.9 1.5 1.9 2.4
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 4.0 1.7 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.0
91-120 Day Average Deposit Rate (%, eop) 5.14 5.12 4.95 5.62 6.22 - - - - -
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 1.1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -2.3 -0.4 0.4 0.9 1.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -2.2 1.1 -0.2 -1.3 -0.1 -2.3 -0.4 0.5 1.0 1.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) -3.2 0.5 -0.9 -1.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 1.1 1.5
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -28.7 -8.4 13.8 13.1 3.2 -23.6 18.1 13.9 9.4 5.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) -0.3 -1.0 -4.0 -6.8 -5.7 -3.3 1.0 5.0 3.5 2.8
Economic Growth (GDP, qoq var. %) 0.0 -0.7 - - - - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 - - - -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.5
Economic Activity (IDEAC, ann. var. %) -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -
Consumer Confidence Index (50-pt threshold) 38.0 37.6 38.2 37.0 37.0 37.6 37.2 37.0 37.1 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 -0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 0.6 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2

1 | Real GDP | 2000 - 2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
10 8 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

var. in % % of GDP
5 4 AGPV -8.0 0.0 - -
CABI -2.0 0.0 -4.0 -3.5
Capital Economics -5.0 2.5 -4.5 -3.7
Citigroup Global Mkts -3.6 - - -
0 0
Credit Suisse -3.3 0.8 -3.7 -2.6
EIU -6.5 3.7 -4.7 -3.2
-5 -4 Fitch Solutions -5.2 1.7 -5.4 -3.1
Ecuador Ecuador Goldman Sachs -5.7 1.7 - -
Latin America Latin America Humboldt Management -6.5 0.7 -6.1 -3.2
World World
-10 -8 JPMorgan -6.0 -0.6 - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Moody's Analytics -3.5 2.2 -4.7 -1.9
Oxford Economics -5.8 5.3 -3.7 -1.5
Torino Capital -6.5 3.5 - -
Summary
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Minimum -8.0 -0.6 -6.1 -3.7
5
Maximum -2.0 5.3 -3.7 -1.5
6
Maximum Median -5.6 1.7 -4.6 -3.1
Consensus Consensus -5.2 2.0 -4.6 -2.8
Minimum History
4 30 days ago 0.0 0.8 -0.2 0.1
0 60 days ago 0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.2
90 days ago 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.7
2 Additional Forecasts
IMF (Apr. 2020) -6.3 3.9 - -
World Bank (Apr. 2020) -6.0 3.2 - -
-5
0
Maximum
Consensus
Minimum
-10 -2
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
12 5
Ecuador
Latin America
9 0
6 -5
Ecuador
Latin America
3 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
9.0 2 General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The
2020 2021 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del Ecuador) and
0 the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y
7.5 Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCE.

-2 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCE.
6.0 3 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-4 5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEC.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
2020 2021
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
4.5 months.
-6
8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020
and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000 - 2024 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Consumer Price Index and Current Account
100 9 CPI Current Account

Ecuador variation in % % of GDP
Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
75 CABI 0.0 0.0 - -
6
Capital Economics - - -5.0 -0.5
Citigroup Global Mkts - - - -
50
DuckerFrontier - - - -
3 EIU -0.5 1.0 -1.7 -0.7
25 Fitch Solutions 0.7 1.5 -1.6 -0.9
Goldman Sachs -1.2 1.2 -2.5 -0.6
0 Humboldt Management -0.7 0.4 -2.5 -
0 JPMorgan -0.3 -0.3 - -
Ecuador
Latin America Oxford Economics 0.3 1.2 -2.4 -1.5
-25 -3 Torino Capital - - - -
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21
Summary
Minimum -1.2 -0.3 -5.0 -1.5
Maximum 0.7 2.5 -1.0 1.1
11 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst Median -0.3 1.0 -2.0 -0.6
Consensus -0.3 0.9 -2.3 -0.4
4 4
History
30 days ago 0.5 1.0 -0.4 -0.3
60 days ago 0.6 1.0 -0.3 -0.2
90 days ago 0.8 1.2 -0.5 -0.6
2 2 Additional Forecasts
IMF (Apr. 2020) 0.1 2.3 - -
0 0
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
-2 -2
13 | Current Account | % of GDP 14 | Trade Balance | USD bn
6 30
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
3 20
0 10
-3 0
Ecuador
Latin America
-6 -10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
15 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 16 | Trade Balance | evol. of fcst General:

1 0.8 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and
external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCE, Banco Central del
2020 2021 Ecuador) and the National Statistical Institute (INEC, Instituto Nacional
de Estadística y Censos). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
0 Forecast.
0.0
Source: INEC.
-1 10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INEC.
-0.8 11 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
-2
13 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BCE.
14 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Source: BCE.
2020 2021
15 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
-3 -1.5
forecasts during the last 18 months.
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 16 Trade balance, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Ecuador in the Region

Official name: Republic of Ecuador Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Quito (1.8m)
Other cities: Guayaquil (2.9m) Ecuador
Ecuador
2.9%
Cuenca (0.3m) 2.1%
Area (km2): 283,561

Population (million, 2019 est.): 17.3
Other Other
Brazil
Brazil
36.1%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017): 7.2 Colombia
Language: Spanish, Quechua Argentina
6.4%

Argentina
Time: GMT-5 Colombia
8.6%
8.4%
Mexico Mexico
20.9% 24.7%
Economic Structure
100 110
80
80
Energy (2017)
Manufacturing Investment

50
Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 24.9 40 Other Industry
Consumption

20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 256 20 Private
Services
0 -10
Airports: 432
Railways (km): 965
Chief Ports: Guayaquil, Manta
Other

8.0%
Political Data Colombia
Other

Colombia
5.7%
5.0%
7.7%
President: Lenín Moreno Garcés Peru U.S.A. U.S.A.
6.8% 36.5% 31.1%
Last elections: 2 April 2017
Next elections: 28 February 2021 Panama
Exports
Other
Imports
LatAm
Central Bank Governor: Verónica Artola Jarrín 7.7%
19.6%
Other
LatAm

9.1%
EU-27
China
11.8%
Asia ex- EU-27 15.5%
Japan Other Asia
13.1%
ex-Japan
8.6%

Moody’s: Caa3 Negative
S&P Global Ratings: SD N/A Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: RD N/A
Manufact.
Other Other
Products Food
7.1%

9.8% 3.0%

Mineral
Fuels
• Substantial oil and gas wealth • Dollarization limits scope to 11.3%

• Tourism potential adjust to external shocks
• Diverse climate enables a wide • Polarized political system
Food
50.1% Exports Mineral
Fuels
Imports
range of crops • High dependence on oil exports 35.8%
Manufact.
Agric. Products
Raw Mat. 76.0%
5.8%
ç

FOCUSECONOMICS Paraguay April 2020
Paraguay
Paraguay
Outlook worsens
• The economy appeared to have started the year on a strong note, as
showed by January’s faster growth in economic activity, which followed an
investment-led acceleration in Q4 2019. However, a sharper fall in exports
in March suggests the coronavirus outbreak and measures implemented to
contain it hit activity at the tail end of Q1. In response, Parliament adopted
measures amounting to around 2.5% of GDP to mitigate the impending
crisis. The package includes increased health and social spending and
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages additional funding for SMEs. Additionally, the government created a USD
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24
100 million fund to provide liquidity and support employment in several
Population (million): 7.0 7.3 7.6 economic sectors, and delayed payment of some taxes, while in late
GDP (USD bn): 38.4 38.3 43.9
March the U.S. state department announced a USD 1.3 billion donation
GDP growth (%): 4.2 1.2 4.5 to help fight Covid-19. Meanwhile, the cabinet announced its proposal to
Public Debt (% of GDP): 18.3 25.8 31.6 permanently streamline the public sector, cut spending and lower public-
Inflation (%): 3.9 3.4 3.9 sector wages.
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.2 -0.9 -0.9
• The outlook for this year worsened notably this month as the Covid-19
Massimo Bassetti
Economist pandemic hampers both domestic and external demand. The duration of
the pandemic as well as the extent and length of containment measures
and their effects on the domestic and global—especially Brazil’s—
economy are the key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics
15 6 panelists estimate the economy to contract 1.0% in 2020, which is down
Paraguay
Latin America 4.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 4.7%
World
10 in 2021.
3
5 • In March, in a bid to contain the economic impact of containment measures,

0
the Central Bank cut the key rate from 3.75% to 2.25% and reduced the
0
2020 2021
minimum reserve requirements. Meanwhile, in March, inflation inched
up to 2.5% from 2.4% in February. Some upside pressure should stem
-5
-3 from lower interest rates ahead, although slowing domestic demand and
GDP, annual variation in %. GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021 lower oil prices will keep inflation in check. FocusEconomics panelists see
Source: BCP. forecasts during the last 18 months. inflation ending 2020 at 3.1% and 2021 at 3.6%.

15 4.6
Paraguay
Latin America
4.2
10
3.8
5
3.4
2020 2021
0 3.0
variation in %. forecasts during the last 18 months.
Source: BCP.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 36.1 36.0 38.9 40.4 38.2 37.3 39.4 41.6 43.8 46.2
GDP (PYG bn) 188,231 204,447 219,188 231,489 238,054 244,112 264,822 286,945 310,995 337,147
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -2.1 2.0 5.9 6.9 -6.6 -3.2 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.9
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.1 9.5 8.3 1.8 -2.9 -4.9 8.5 6.8 6.0 5.2
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -2.6 1.1 12.0 8.9 -0.9 -8.7 10.0 7.1 5.5 3.9
Unemployment (% of active population, eop) 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.6 5.7 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.4 -
Money (ann. var. of M2 %) 5.8 8.1 16.4 6.1 6.3 - - - - -
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25 4.00 2.00 3.00 3.38 4.00 -
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, eop) 5,782 5,848 5,588 5,961 6,453 6,629 6,798 6,992 7,199 7,405
Exchange Rate (PYG per USD, aop) 5,210 5,683 5,632 5,731 6,238 6,541 6,713 6,895 7,095 7,302
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.4 3.6 3.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.1 1.3 1.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 0.8 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) -15.3 7.9 11.9 2.5 -7.6 -9.7 14.1 13.6 12.8 12.0
International Reserves (USD bn) 6.2 7.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.6 8.9 -
International Reserves (months of imports) 7.2 8.8 8.4 7.4 7.8 8.2 7.4 6.9 6.3 -
External Debt (USD bn) 16.1 16.2 15.9 15.8 17.4 17.6 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1
1 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 2 | Public Debt | % of GDP 3 | Current Account | % of GDP
4 60 10
Paraguay
Latin America
0 40 5
-4 20 0
Paraguay
Latin America
-8 0 -5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated. The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All data are from Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP,
Banco Central del Paraguay), Ministry of Treasury (MH, Ministerio de Hacienda) and Refinitiv. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 Balance of central government as % of GDP. Source: MH.
2 Public sector debt as % of GDP. Source: MH.
3 Current account as % of GDP. Source: BCP.

Fact Sheet
General Data Paraguay in the Region

Official name: Republic of Paraguay Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
Capital: Asunción (3.2m)
Other cities: Ciudad del Este (0.2m) Paraguay
Paraguay
1.2%
0.7%
Pedro Juan Caballero (0.1m)
Area (km2): 406,752
Brazil
Population growth rate (%, 2019 est.): 1.2 34.9%
Brazil
36.1%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 6.0 Colombia
6.4%
Language: Spanish, Guaraní Argentina
7.5%
Measures: Metric system Argentina
8.6%
Colombia
Time: GMT-4 8.4%
Mexico
Mexico
20.9%
24.7%
Economic Structure
100 100
80 80
Energy (2017)
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 546 Manufacturing Investment
60 60
Government
Consumption
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 60.1
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.2 20 20 Private
Services
Consumption
Transportation (2018) 0 0
Airports: 799
Railways (km): 30.0
Chief Ports: Asunción
Other
Other EU-27
3.6%
U.S.A.
7.9%
Political Data 6.7% Other

LatAm Argentina

8.8%

Russia
6.4% 12.8%
President: Mario Abdo Benítez
9.1% EU-27
12.8%
Last elections: 22 April 2018 Chile

Asia
Other
Exports Imports ex-Japan
Central Bank President: José Cantero Sienra Brazil
Brazil 6.5%
22.1%
32.0%
Argentina China
29.9% Other 25.8%
LatAm

Moody’s: Ba1 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable
Other Other
2.2% 1.8%
Manufact. Food
Strengths Weaknesses Products 8.9%
10.2%
Mineral
• Favorable conditions for • Vulnerability to commodity price Fuels
12.5%
agriculture swings
Mineral
• Commitment to structural • Dependence on neighboring Exports Fuels Imports
25.2%
reforms economies
Food
• Stable source of income from 62.4%

hydroelectric dams
Manufact.
Products
76.9%

FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay April 2020
Uruguay
Outlook worsens
Uruguay
• The economy seemingly started the year on a sour note, following a

consumption- and export-led deceleration in Q4 2019. The unemployment
rate jumped in February and merchandise exports fell considerably in
January−February, with February’s data suggesting the coronavirus
pandemic already hammered the economy in the first quarter of this
year. In an effort to alleviate the economic consequences of the outbreak,
the government adopted several relief measures, including expanded
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages unemployment insurance; deferred or reduced payments of taxes and
2016-18 2019-21 2022-24 public contributions; increased assistance to the most vulnerable groups;
Population (million): 3.5 3.5 3.6 and measures to support SMEs financing. On 2 April, Parliament approved
GDP (USD bn): 56.9 51.7 59.5
GDP per capita (USD): 16,290 14,650 16,681 the creation of an anti-coronavirus fund, which will be partly paid for
GDP growth (%): 2.0 0.4 3.3 through reductions of salaries of better-paid public officials, pensions for
Public Debt (% of GDP): 61.9 69.4 65.6 the wealthiest and payrolls of political officers.
Inflation (%): 7.8 7.9 6.9
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 0.4 0.1
• The economy is set to fall into recession this year, hit by the impact of
Covid-19 and associated measures implemented to contain it on both
Massimo Bassetti
the Brazilian and Argentine economies and investment activity at home.
Economist
Downside risks stem mainly from the length and intensity of the Covid-19
outbreak and its spillovers on the external sector. FocusEconomics
analysts see the economy contracting 2.4% in 2020, which is down 3.8
percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is
Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts seen expanding 3.5%.
8 4
• Inflation climbed from 8.3% in February to 9.2% in March—the highest

4 2
reading since August 2016. Therefore, inflation rose further above the
Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. Exchange rate pass-through
0 0
and rising food prices have stoked upside price pressures as of late.
-4 -2
Going forward, a weak currency will continue exerting upside pressures.
2020 2021 FocusEconomics analysts see inflation ending 2020 at 9.4% and 2021
-8 -4 at 7.6%.
2017 - Q4 2021. forecasts during the last 18 months. • In two subsequent decisions on 19 March and 1 April, the Central
Bank of Uruguay adopted measures to stimulate credit extension and
injecting liquidity into the financial system, as part of efforts to cushion the
economic impact of Covid-19 lockdown measures. Subsequently, at its 16
Inflation Change in CPI forecasts April meeting, it set its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply
11 10
in Q2 2020 at 3.0%–5.0%.
Uruguay
2020 2021
Latin America
9
9
• On 17 April, the Uruguayan peso ended the day at 43.3 per USD,
appreciating 2.8% from the same day in March, after having lost
8
considerable ground in the preceding weeks due to enormous downside
7
7
pressures stemming from coronavirus fears. Going ahead, the peso
looks set to lose ground due to economic contraction and high inflation.
5 6 FocusEconomics panelists project the UYU to end 2020 at 45.1 per USD
and 2021 at 46.4 per USD.

REAL SECTOR | Full-year growth slumps to 17-year low as economy

cools at year-end
The economy grew just 0.2% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2019,
after expanding 1.1% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, in quarter-on-quarter,
seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4, contrasting Q3’s
0.6% expansion and marking the worst result since Q4 2015. The fourth
Gross Domestic Product | variation in % quarter’s result brings full-year growth for 2019 to 0.2%, well below 2018’s
8.0
1.6% expansion and marking the softest reading since 2002.
A weaker external sector chiefly drove the slowdown in the fourth quarter.
4.0
Growth in exports of goods and services slumped in Q4 (Q4: +1.6% year-on-
year; Q3: +6.1% yoy), dragged down by a contraction in exports of services,
0.0
prompted by a decline in the tourism sector owing to spillovers from a frail
%
Argentine economy. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services accelerated
-4.0
in Q4 (Q4: +3.0% yoy; Q3: +1.3% yoy), on stronger purchases of final
consumption and capital goods, as well as of tourism services in Argentina.
-8.0
Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q1 2021 Overall, the external sector subtracted 0.4 percentage points to growth in Q4,
a notable downturn from Q3’s 1.3 percentage-points contribution.
Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
Meanwhile, domestic demand improved somewhat, on the back of improved

investment activity. Fixed investment growth gained significant steam (Q4:
+5.4% yoy; Q3: +2.6% yoy), led by stronger private sector fixed investment—
especially in machinery and equipment—as well as by a softer contraction
in public sector investment, which nevertheless saw infrastructure spending
falling again. On the other hand, private consumption cooled in the fourth
quarter (Q4: +1.0% yoy; Q3: +1.4% yoy), most likely due to continued slack in
the labor market, still-high inflation and a falling peso. Lastly, public spending
growth broadly kept pace in Q4 (Q4: +0.6% yoy; Q3: +0.7% yoy).
Our panelists see GDP falling 2.4% in 2020, which is down 3.8 percentage
points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 3.5% in 2021.
REAL SECTOR | Industrial production rebounds in February ahead of

coronavirus blow
Industrial production increased 1.0% in annual terms in February, contrasting
Industrial Production | variation in % January’s 3.0% contraction. Industrial output excluding refinery output dropped
24
1.3% year-on-year in February, a somewhat softer fall than January’s 1.8%
Year-on-year
Annual average
decrease. Looking at a breakdown of the sub-components, a sharp increase
in the production of petroleum- and carbon-based products led the overall
12
expansion.
%
Meanwhile, annual average variation in industrial production improved from

0
minus 1.8% in January to minus 1.5% in the second month of this year.
The analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics for this month’s LatinFocus

-12
Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Feb-20 Consensus Forecast see industrial production contracting 6.1% in 2020, which
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
is down 7.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and increasing 3.5%
in %. in 2021.
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation at over three-year high in March

Consumer prices jumped 1.3% from a month earlier in March, accelerating
from the 0.6% increase recorded in February. A breakdown of the sub-
components provided by the Statistical Institute showed that all of the 12 sub-
components saw an increase in prices, led by surging prices for food and
non-alcoholic beverages, and a sizable increase in prices for transport.

Meanwhile, inflation climbed from 8.3% in February to 9.2% in March, logging

Inflation | Consumer Price Index
the highest reading since August 2016. Therefore, inflation rose further above
4.0 9.5
the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target range. Lastly, annual
average inflation ticked up from 8.1% in February to 8.2% in March, the
highest reading in close to three years.
2.0 8.5

% %
inflation to end 2020 at 9.4%, which is up 1.5 percentage points, and 2021 at
0.0 7.5 7.6%.
Month-on-moth (left scale)

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank intervenes to support credit and
-2.0 6.5 liquidity; lowers M1+ target
At its monetary policy meeting on 16 April, the Central Bank of Uruguay
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Expectations
of monthly variations of consumer price index in %.
decided to lower its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and Uruguay Central Bank (BCU). the second quarter, due to expected lower demand for M1+ given projected
economic weakness. The meeting was preceded by two subsequent decisions
on 19 March and 1 April, in which the lender adopted measures to stimulate
credit extension and inject liquidity into the financial system, as part of efforts
to cushion the economic impact of Covid-19 lockdown measures.
On 16 April, the Bank lowered its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money
supply in Q2 2020 to 3.0%–5.0%, from the previous quarter’s target of 6.0%–
8.0%. The decision was taken against the backdrop of worsening economic
activity, a sliding peso, elevated inflationary pressures and as it expected
M1+ demand to moderate in Q2 due to the economic hit from coronavirus.
Moreover, it set its inflation target for the next 24 months at 3.0%–7.0%, “or
also at more stringent levels”.
Money supply | M1+ in %
20 Earlier in April, in a bid to boost credit and shield the economy from
Year-on-year
Three-month rolling average the coronavirus blow, the lender reduced the reserve requirements for
15 commercial banks conditional on an expansion in credit portfolios. The move
% followed a decision in mid-March through which the Bank authorized financial
10 institutions to relax deadlines on loan payments—both interest and principal—
for households and businesses hit by the coronavirus crisis. Specifically, it
5 deferred loan payments for up to six months, although the monetary authority
underlined the measure was not to be read as a debt restructuring.
0
The emergency measures should provide some relief to businesses and
Note: Year-on-year changes and 3-month average variation of M1+ in %.
households, although it remains to be seen how the Central Bank will balance
Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU). the need to provide support to the economy while handling stubbornly high
inflation.
According to the new calendar of monetary policy meetings, the next monetary
policy meeting is scheduled for 21 May.

Annual Data 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 54.0 52.1 60.1 58.5 56.1 48.6 50.5 54.8 59.3 64.4
GDP (UYU bn) 1,456 1,589 1,707 1,831 1,976 2,100 2,327 2,572 2,835 3,114
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) -2.0 -0.4 0.7 2.4 -0.1 -2.7 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) -0.5 0.1 4.6 1.5 0.5 -2.5 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.4
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.2 2.9 -0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -9.2 -1.6 -15.7 -2.7 1.4 -3.9 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.2
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -0.6 -0.2 6.9 -4.8 1.2 -4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -7.3 -6.2 0.5 -2.0 0.2 -4.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 3.1 0.3 -11.1 11.5 -1.5 -6.1 3.5 4.2 4.4 4.6
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 5.6 8.4 15.0 8.9 5.1 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) 6.8 3.4 1.7 9.7 12.8 9.4 8.6 7.3 6.4 5.4
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop) 6.94 6.58 5.56 5.30 5.86 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 29.9 29.3 28.8 32.4 37.3 45.1 46.4 47.5 48.1 48.7
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 27.3 30.1 28.7 30.7 35.2 43.2 46.1 46.9 47.8 48.4
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -0.9 -0.1 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 - - - - - -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.1 0.2 -0.5 -5.3 -3.9 -1.0 1.3 6.0 4.8 3.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) -9.9 0.0 4.1 4.3 -7.9 -1.8 3.8 -3.0 1.0 -
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 9.3 5.6 7.9 11.8 7.4 8.4 5.1 3.2 15.8 -

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance
1 | Real GDP | 2000-2024 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 17-Q4 21 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance
8 8 Real GDP Fiscal Balance

Uruguay
var. in % % of GDP
Latin America
World Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
4 4 Capital Economics -2.0 1.0 -4.0 -3.5
CINVE -3.1 5.4 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts -0.2 - - -
0 0 DuckerFrontier -4.1 3.9 - -
Fitch Solutions -1.1 2.8 -5.1 -4.9
Iecon - UdelaR -4.0 5.0 - -
-4 -4 Itaú Unibanco -2.3 4.7 -4.6 -3.5
Uruguay JPMorgan -0.7 -0.7 - -
Latin America
Julius Baer -1.0 4.0 - -
World
-8 -8 Moody's Analytics -5.6 3.4 -6.3 -3.1
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Oxford Economics -0.5 3.6 - -
República AFAP -4.2 5.8 - -
Santander -2.5 - - -
3 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2021 | evolution of forecasts Summary
Minimum -5.6 -0.7 -6.3 -4.9
6 6
Maximum -0.2 5.8 -4.0 -3.1
Median -2.3 3.9 -4.8 -3.5
Consensus -2.4 3.5 -5.0 -3.7
3 4
History
30 days ago 1.4 2.1 -3.1 -2.8
60 days ago 1.5 2.1 -3.3 -3.1
0 2 90 days ago 1.5 2.1 -3.2 -3.0
IMF (Apr. 2020) -3.0 5.0 - -
-3 0 Maximum World Bank (Apr. 2020) -2.7 5.5 - -
Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
-6 -2
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP
18 0.0
Uruguay
Latin America
15
-2.5
12
-5.0
9
Uruguay
Latin America
6 -7.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Notes and sources

7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
11 -2.5 General:
2020 2021 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de
10 -3.2 Estadística) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay). See
below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.

9 -3.9 2 Quarterly GDP (non-seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCU.
8 -4.6
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
2020 2021
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
7 -5.3 months.
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2020
and 2021 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate
9 | Inflation | 2000-2024 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 17-Q4 21 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate
28 11 CPI Exchange Rate

Uruguay variation in % UYU per USD
Uruguay
Latin America Latin America Individual Forecasts 2020 2021 2020 2021
21 Capital Economics - - 43.0 40.0
9 CINVE 9.7 8.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts - - - -
14 DuckerFrontier - - - -
Fitch Solutions 10.6 7.6 - -
7 Iecon - UdelaR 9.5 7.5 - -
7 Itaú Unibanco 10.5 9.0 46.0 49.0
JPMorgan 8.0 - 43.5 -
Julius Baer - - - -
0 5 Moody's Analytics 6.7 5.2 47.8 48.9
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q1 21 Oxford Economics 9.1 8.2 44.1 47.6
República AFAP 9.7 7.7 - -
Santander 10.8 - 46.0 -
11 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2021 | evolution of fcst Summary
Minimum 6.7 5.2 43.0 40.0
12 10
Maximum Maximum
Maximum 10.8 9.0 47.8 49.0
Consensus Consensus Median 9.7 7.7 45.0 48.3
Minimum Minimum Consensus 9.4 7.6 45.1 46.4
10
History
8
30 days ago 7.9 7.4 40.7 42.9
60 days ago 7.8 7.3 40.4 42.6
8
90 days ago 7.6 7.0 40.3 42.4
6 IMF (Apr. 2020) 8.8 7.9 - -
6 World Bank (Apr. 2020) 10.0 8.0 - -
4 4
13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP
50 3
Uruguay
Latin America
40
0
30
-3
20
Notes and sources

10 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
General:
Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2024 unless otherwise stated.
15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst The Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. Long-term
forecasts (2022-2024) for end-of period indicators are based on both end-
47 1 of-period and average-of-period projections. All monetary and external
sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional
2020 2021 2020 2021 de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay), IMF
(International Financial Statistics) and Refinitiv. See below for details.
44 Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.
0
Source: INE.
41 10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INE.
-1 11 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
38
13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Refinitiv.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2020 and 2021 forecasts during the last 18
35 -2 months.
Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2020 and 2021
forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Uruguay in the Region

Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m) Uruguay
Uruguay
0.6%
1.1%
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215 Other
Other
Population (million, 2019 est.): 3.5 27.7%
23.1%
Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2019): 20.0 34.9% Brazil
36.1%
Life expectancy (years, 2019 est.): 77.9 Colombia
6.4%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2018): 1.3 Argentina
7.5%
Language: Spanish Argentina
8.6%
8.4%
Mexico
Time: GMT-3 20.9%
Mexico
24.7%
Economic Structure
100 120
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 28.3 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80
Energy (2017) 80
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 123 Manufacturing Investment

60
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 220 60

40 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 10.4 40 Other Industry
Consumption
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0 20
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 49.1 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 6.7 0 Consumption
0 -20
Airports: 133
Trade Structure
Chief Ports: Montevideo
Other U.S.A.
Turkey 6.2% 7.0%
Political Data 7.0% U.S.A.
Angola

6.5% 10.9% EU-27
President: Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou Other
32.0%

EU-27

12.5%

Last elections: 24 November 2019 9.5%
Other
Asia
ex-Japan
Next elections: 2024 Argentina
5.5%
Exports 12.6% Imports
Central Bank Govenor: Diego Labat
China
China
16.0%
16.9%
Brazil Brazil
14.3% Other 20.6%
Other
LatAm LatAm
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 14.6% 7.8%

Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable Primary products | share in %
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative Other
1.2%
Mineral
Fuels Other
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. 11.6% 15.9%
Products
22.5%
• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy
• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring
• Abundant natural resources economies Exports

Imports
Agric.
• Small domestic market Food Raw Mat.
62.9% 13.3%
Manufact.
Products
. 72.5%

FOCUSECONOMICS
Notes and Statements

Notes April 2020
PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE

Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2020 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to under International Copyright Conventions.
economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
include the following countries: The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, FocusEconomics S.L.U.
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Tobago.
Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.
Venezuela is included in the LatinFocus report but not in regional

or world aggregates.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the

latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS
MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy),
Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt
PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas,
Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm oil, Soybeans, Sugar, Rice, Wheat and Wool
SUBSCRIPTION & PRICING INFORMATION

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LATINFOCUS

ANGELA BOUZANIS WILLIAM O’CONNELL JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN

NICOLAS J. AGUILAR LINDSEY ICE JOAN ARGILAGÓS

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Latin America

Gross Domestic Product, ann. var. in % Consumer Prices, ann. var. in %

2018 2019 2020 2021

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, % of GDP

2018 2019 2020 2021

2018 2019 2020 2021

Note: Latin America, Mercosur and World estimates exclude Venezuela.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |2

Economic Outlook GDP Variation in % Change in Forecast

pullback in tourism; turbulence in financial markets; blow to 2021 Apr-20

ARGENTINA | 2020: -5.5%

financing. Risks of government debt default and associated 2021 Apr-20

BRAZIL | 2020: -3.2%

CHILE | 2020: -2.5%

surrounding the upcoming constitutional process may further 2021 Apr-20

COLOMBIA | 2020: -1.1%

MEXICO | 2020: -5.1%

PERU | 2020: -2.4%

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |3

Inflation Inflation in % Change in Forecast

ARGENTINA | 2020: 42.9%

BRAZIL | 2020: 2.9%

from looser monetary conditions and a weak real. 2021 Apr-20

CHILE | 2020: 3.1%

COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.2%

MEXICO | 2020: 3.5%

PERU | 2020: 1.5%

and weak domestic demand. 2021 Apr-20

Note: Change in forecast refers to 2020.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |4

Monetary Policy Interest rate in % Change in Forecast

liquidity measures to prop up banking systems. Central bankers

ARGENTINA | 2020: 33.30%

Bank of Argentina (BCRA) adopted measures to improve the Feb-20

BRAZIL | 2020: 3.11%

CHILE | 2020: 0.49%

accompanied by additional liquidity measures. The rate is largely 2021 Apr-20

COLOMBIA | 2020: 3.04%

MEXICO | 2020: 5.03%

PERU | 2020: 0.67%

possibility of further accommodative action if needed ahead. 2021 Apr-20

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |5

Exchange Rate Variation in % Change in Forecast

ARGENTINA | 2020: -29.7%

Meanwhile, the parallel-market dollar was priced at a significantly 2021 Apr-20

BRAZIL | 2020: -16.1%

CHILE | 2020: -8.4%

past month, as the Covid-19 pandemic continued to hamper 2019 Feb-20

COLOMBIA | 2020: -15.6%

MEXICO | 2020: -15.8%

PERU | 2020: -4.3%

Note: Annual appreciation/depreciation of national currencies versus USD in %. Positive

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast |6

governed by local law, on 17 April the government officially

foreign debt. A hard-fought renegotiation process is expected

Chile: Consumer sentiment plummets to an all-time low in

deterioration in all five subcomponents of the index. IMEF Manufacturing PMI

Colombia: Central Bank slashes rates for first time since 56

finances were already tight, however, prompting authorities to ask