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ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 1

Current Reco : BUY 1QFY20 RESULT REVIEW


Previous Reco
CMP
: BUY
: INR2,619
Bajaj Auto
Target Price : INR3,423 Operationally in line; better placed compared to peers
Potential Return : 31% in a downturn
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers Bajaj Auto's (BJAUT) 1QFY20 operational performance was broadly in line
Asiamoney Brokers’ Poll 2019
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
P Vote for ANTIQUE with estimates. The management's tone appeared slightly cautious this time
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers around with the company starting to face the heat of persistent demand
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
Voting closes on 16th August slowdown. Nonetheless, the BJAUT remains better placed vis-à-vis peers in
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
FY20, as the company continues to fill portfolio gaps, with recent launch of
Priya Ranjan new CT110 and an upcoming bike in M2 space which is set to be an existing
+91 22 4031 3466 brand. We believe these initiatives can fetch a decent incremental volume for
priya.ranjan@antiquelimited.com the company in FY20, helping BJAUT outperform the industry yet again.
Apoorva Patil However, we are hopeful that lesson learnt from past Discover mistakes
+91 22 4031 3428 will not get repeated in its new 125cc foray in order to boost its market
apoorva.patil@antiquelimited.com share. We also see limited further downside to the margins as benign
Vikrant Gupta commodity prices and smart portfolio/variant strategy should lend adequate
+91 22 4031 3429 support. We maintain BUY on BJAUT with a revised price target of INR3,423.
vikrant.gupta@antiquelimited.com
1QFY20 result meets estimates: BJAUT's 1QFY20 revenue came in at INR77.6bn, up
Market data 5% YoY and 5% QoQ (in-line), driven by a volume growth of ~2% YoY and realization gain
Sensex : 37,883 of 2.4% YoY (flat QoQ). Realization gain was attributed to three-wheeler price hike in April
Sector : Auto (1.5-2%) and price increase in >150cc portfolio with ABS adoption. EBITDA stood at INR12bn,
Market Cap (INRbn) : 758.0
with a margin of 15.4% (slight miss v/s our estimate of 15.7%). Margin was down 180bps
YoY and 27bps sequentially. Net profit stood at INR11.3bn (+1% YoY, down 14% QoQ),
Market Cap (USDbn) : 10.978
aided by lower tax rate. There was no material impact of Ind AS 116 accounting change for
O/S Shares (m) : 289.4
BJAUT.
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 3150/2420
Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 519
Highlights of the conference call:
Bloomberg : BJAUT IN n The management acknowledged a sharp slowdown in domestic two-wheeler demand
Source: Bloomberg and cited that July month has been even worse than June. Although seasonality as festive
season approaches may mitigate the downturn to certain extent, it won't lead to a
Valuation turnaround.
FY19 FY20e FY21e
EPS (INR) 149.7 151.2 171.1
n For domestic three-wheeler business 2Q is expected to be better than 1Q. Two-wheeler
exports are expected to hold steady with continued traction in ASEAN and Africa as two-
P/E 17.5 17.3 15.3
wheeler exports markets grow at 2-3% (BJAUT to grow at a higher pace). Three-wheeler
P/BV 3.5 3.2 2.9
exports, however, will see decline due to continued issues in Egypt, which will take at
EV/EBITDA 11.5 11.6 10.1 least 6 more months to subside.
Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 2.5 2.7
n Spare parts revenue for the quarter stood at INR7.4bn.
Source: Company, Antique
n Exports revenue for the quarter stood at INR31.5bn, which was broadly at similar level in
Returns (%) 1QFY19 and ~INR28bn in 4QFY19.
1m 3m 6m 12m
n BJAUT will launch a new 125cc bike in next three weeks, which is expected to be an
Absolute (9) (14) (0) 0
existing brand. However, the management refrained to comment on whether they will be
Relative (5) (11) (5) (2)
launching under Pulsar brand. Commenting on the concerns of whether launching a
Source: Bloomberg
sports bike in commuter segment can be confusing to the consumer and detrimental for
Shareholding pattern the brand, the management gave the example of KTM Duke 125cc, which has fetched
a good response without changing the brand narrative.
Promoters : 54%
n The current inventory level is 7-8 weeks on last month's retail.
Public : 46%
Others : 0%
n Urbanite (EV) launch plans are on track; however, the management is not certain of
launching it in FY20 yet. BJAUT is also well prepared for 3W electrification.
Source: Bloomberg
Valuation and risks
Price performance vs Nifty We maintain BUY on BJAUT with a revised price target of INR3,423, based on 20x FY21e
120 EPS. We have lowered our volume growth assumptions to reflect a slower-than-anticipated
market growth. BJAUT is poised to grow ahead of domestic 2W industry in FY20/21, which
100 should fetch higher multiple for the stock, going forward. We believe the premium over Hero
is justified, given a strong cash position and considering BJAUT is not doing any major capex
80 unlike Hero, which leads to a superior free-cash flow yield. The higher multiple also factors
Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 KTM stake value at ~INR210/share. Key risks: 1) muted response to the new commuter
Bajaj Auto NIFTY bike, 2) sharp downturn in its key export markets, and 3) failure to keep up in case of a
faster-than-expected EV adoption led by regulatory tightening.
Source: Bloomberg Indexed to 100
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 2

1QFY20 Financial Snapshot


Q1FY20 Q1FY19 % change Q4FY19 % change
Two Wheelers 1,082,627 1,029,964 5.1 1,006,430 7.6
Three wheelers 164,547 196,677 (16.3) 186,898 (12.0)
Total units sold (units) 1,247,174 1,226,641 1.7 1,193,328 4.5
Exports( of the above) 550,021 537,976 2.2 518,455 6.1
Realisation (INR) 60,657 59,244 2.4 60,547 0.2

Financial analysis
Rs mn Q1FY20 Q1FY19 % change Q4FY19 % change
Total revenues 77,558 74,192 4.5 73,952 4.9
Raw material 55,638 52,993 5.0 53,450 4.1
Staff costs 3,605 3,140 14.8 3,126 15.4
Other expenses 6,388 5,289 20.8 5,863 9.0
Less: Expenses capitalised (55) (44) (25.5) (109) 49.9
Total expenditure 65,576 61,379 6.8 62,329 5.2
EBIDTA 11,982 12,813 (6.5) 11,623 3.1
Interest 5 3 - 3 86.2
Depreciation 601 700 (14.0) 608 (1.1)
Other income 4,413 4,044 9.1 4,327 2.0
PBT 15,788 16,155 (2.3) 15,339 2.9
Tax 4,531 5,003 (9.4) 5,703 (20.5)
Adjusted net profit 11,257 11,151 0.9 9,636 16.8
Exceptional items 0 0 NM (3,420) NM
Net profit 11,257 11,151 0.9 13,056 (13.8)

Margin analysis
As % of net revenues
Year to March Q1FY20 Q1FY19 Change (bps) Q4FY19 Change (bps)
Raw material 71.7 71.4 31.0 72.3 (54.0)
Staff costs 4.6 4.2 41.6 4.2 42.2
Other expenses 8.2 7.1 110.7 7.9 30.8
EBIDTA 15.4 17.3 (182.1) 15.7 (26.7)
Adjusted net profit 14.5 15.0 (51.7) 13.0 148.4
Tax rate 28.7 31.0 (227.1) 37.2 (847.9)
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 3

Volume grew 2% YoY; domestic volume was up 1.2% while


exports were up 2.2% YoY Realizations up 2% YoY and flat sequentially
1,600,000 50% 65,000 8%
64,000 7%
1,400,000 6% 6%
38% 40% 63,000 5% 4% 4%
1,200,000 33% 62,000
30% 2%2%
1,000,000 25% 26% 61,000
18% 20% 60,000 0%
800,000 14% 59,000 -1%
10% -2%
600,000 58,000 -3%
4% -4%
2%0% 57,000 -5%
400,000 -6%
56,000
200,000 -11% -10% 55,000 -8% -8%
0 -20% 54,000 -10%

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Volume YoY Grow th(%) Realizations YoY Grow th(%)
Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

Revenue growth moderates to 5% YoY in 1QFY20 EBITDA per vehicle was down 8% YoY but flat sequentially
90,000 45% 13,000
80,000 40% 12,500
38%
36% 35% 12,000
70,000
30% 11,500
60,000 26% 25% 11,000
50,000 21% 20% 10,500
40,000 16% 15% 10,000
30,000 9% 9% 10% 9,500
5%5%
10,562

12,117

12,296

12,581

10,446

10,026
9,000

9,176

9,740

9,607
20,000
0%
10,000 8,500
-5% -5%
8,000
0 -10%
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20
Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Revenue YoY Grow th(%) EBITDA/Vehicle

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

Expect a volume growth CAGR of 4% over FY19-21e


3,000,000 35%

29% 30%
2,500,000
25%
2,000,000
20%
1,500,000 15%
10%
1,000,000 7% 8%
5% 5%
500,000
0% 0%
-1%
0 -5%
FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20e

FY21e

Domestic 2W volume (units) YoY grow th (%)


Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 4

Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm) Key assumptions
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
Net Revenue 2,17,667 2,52,189 3,02,500 3,15,076 3,52,587 Total motorcycle (domestic) 20,01,379 19,75,102 25,41,320 25,46,400 27,49,700
Op. Expenses 1,73,473 2,03,815 2,52,679 2,65,618 2,95,981 Total motorcycle (exports) 12,18,541 13,94,757 16,95,553 18,65,108 20,88,921
EBITDA 44,194 48,374 49,820 49,458 56,606 Total 2W 32,19,920 33,69,859 42,36,873 44,11,508 48,38,621
Depreciation 3,073 3,148 2,657 2,877 3,161 Total 3W 4,45,939 6,37,457 7,82,630 7,56,296 7,42,741
EBIT 41,121 45,226 47,163 46,580 53,445 Total Volumes 36,65,859 40,07,316 50,19,503 51,67,804 55,81,362
Other income 12,222 12,933 16,493 17,817 19,415 Growth (%) (6) 9 25 3 8
Interest Exp. 14 13 45 40 30
Extra Ordinary Items -gain/(loss) - (320) 3,420 - - Cash flow statement (INRm)
Reported PBT 53,330 57,826 67,032 64,357 72,830 Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
Tax 15,081 17,145 20,280 20,594 23,306 PBT 53,330 57,826 67,032 64,357 72,830
Reported PAT 38,249 40,681 46,752 43,763 49,525 Depreciation & amortisation 3,073 3,148 2,657 2,877 3,161
Net Profit 38,249 40,681 46,752 43,763 49,525 Interest expense 14 13 45 40 30
Adjusted PAT 38,249 41,001 43,332 43,763 49,525 (Inc)/Dec in working capital 2,533 10,451 (7,030) 109 332
Adjusted EPS (INR) 132.2 141.7 149.7 151.2 171.1 Tax paid (15,081) (17,145) (20,280) (20,594) (23,306)
Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. (12,222) (12,933) (16,493) (17,817) (19,415)
Balance sheet (INRm) Other operating Cash Flow 1,745 1,247 (1,035) 3,070 3,316
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e CF from operating activities 33,392 42,608 24,895 32,042 36,948
Share Capital 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894 Capital expenditure (1,970) (1,833) (1,082) (7,000) (7,000)
Reserves & Surplus 1,67,448 1,88,145 2,14,905 2,36,030 2,61,175 Inc/(Dec) in investments (35,827) (19,361) (2,458) (20,000) (20,000)
Networth 1,70,341 1,91,039 2,17,799 2,38,923 2,64,069 Add: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 914 2,013 1,098 14,746 16,099
Net deferred Tax liabilities 4,901 6,043 7,268 7,268 7,268 CF from investing activities (36,883) (19,180) (2,441) (12,254) (10,901)
Capital Employed 1,75,242 1,97,082 2,25,067 2,46,192 2,71,337 Dividend Paid (2,022) (18,848) (20,733) (22,638) (24,379)
Gross Fixed Assets 43,993 44,491 42,161 49,161 56,161 Others 275 261 (277) (40) (30)
Accumulated Depreciation 25,007 26,279 25,077 27,954 31,115 CF from financing activities (1,748) (18,587) (21,010) (22,678) (24,409)
Capital work in progress 106 112 115 115 115 Net cash flow (5,239) 4,841 1,444 (2,889) 1,638
Net Fixed Assets 19,093 18,323 17,200 21,322 25,162 Opening balance 8,176 2,798 7,609 9,228 6,339
Intangible Assets 1,333 1,024 920 920 920 Closing balance 2,937 7,639 9,054 6,339 7,977
Investments 1,47,315 1,75,883 1,91,594 2,11,594 2,31,594
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 40,395 42,964 64,091 62,642 68,687 Growth indicators (%)
Inventory 7,284 7,426 9,615 10,009 11,212 Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
Debtors 9,533 14,919 25,597 26,644 29,847 Revenue(%) (3.6) 15.9 19.9 4.2 11.9
Cash & Bank balance 2,937 7,780 9,228 6,339 7,977 EBITDA(%) (7.6) 9.5 3.0 (0.7) 14.5
Loans & advances and others 20,641 12,839 19,651 19,651 19,651 Adj PAT(%) (2.7) 7.2 5.7 1.0 13.2
Current Liabilities & Prov. 34,870 42,369 50,143 51,692 56,431 Adj EPS(%) (2.7) 7.2 5.7 1.0 13.2
Liabilities 32,893 41,113 48,737 50,286 55,025
Provisions 1,977 1,256 1,406 1,406 1,406
Valuation (x)
Net Current Assets 7,502 1,851 15,354 12,356 13,662
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
P/E 19.4 18.5 17.5 17.3 15.3
Application of Funds 1,75,242 1,97,082 2,25,067 2,46,192 2,71,337
P/BV 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 2.9
Per share data EV/EBITDA 12.6 11.9 11.5 11.6 10.1
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e EV/Sales 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.8 1.6
No. of shares (m) 289 289 289 289 289 Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7
Diluted no. of shares (m) 289 289 289 289 289
BVPS (INR) 589 660 753 826 913
Financial ratios
CEPS (INR) 143 151 171 161 182
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e
RoE (%) 22.5 21.5 19.9 18.3 18.8
DPS (INR) 55 55 60 65 70
RoCE (%) 30.4 29.5 28.3 26.2 26.9
Margins (%) Asset/T.O (x) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Year ended 31 Mar 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.9) (1.0) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9)
EBITDA Margin(%) 20.3 19.2 16.5 15.7 16.1 EBIT/Interest (x) 3,810 4,440 NA NA NA
EBIT Margin(%) 18.9 17.9 15.6 14.8 15.2 Source: Company Antique

PAT Margin(%) 16.6 15.5 13.6 13.1 13.3

Source: Company, Antique


ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 5

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