ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 1

Current Reco : BUY 1QFY20 RESULT REVIEW

Previous Reco
CMP
: BUY
: INR926
Mphasis
Target Price : INR1,080 Slight miss on revenues; Outlook remains steady
Potential Return : 17%
Mphasis' 1QFY20 USD revenue growth of 1.8% QoQ was below our and street estimates of
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers 2.8% QoQ growth. Revenues grew by 2/11.5% QoQ/YoY in CC terms. CC revenue growth
Asiamoney Brokers’ Poll 2019
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P Vote for ANTIQUE was led by direct core which grew by 2.7/17.2% QoQ/YoY. In Direct core, company is
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers
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https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers focusing on three growth vectors a) strategic accounts b) addition of new accounts through
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Voting closes on 16th August
https://www.euromoney.com/Brokers Blackstone portfolio and c) new client addition. All the three vectors helped this channel grow
Govind Agarwal in 1QFY20. Deal wins from Blackstone portfolio saw a significant increase of 55% YoY and
+91 22 4031 3395 new client addition saw 100% increase YoY. HP/DXC channel grew by 2.5/16.5% QoQ/
govind.agarwal@antiquelimited.com
YoY. HP/DXC channel has seen solid momentum in FY19 and has contributed significantly to
Heli Modi, CFA Mphasis overall revenue growth. Company has seen large deal signings from this segment in
+91 22 4031 3447
heli.modi@antiquelimited.com FY19 and expects this segment to be a growth driver for FY20 as well and expects growth to
be above market in this segment. Revenues from Digital risk (DR) improved during the quarter
Market data and came in at USD23.8mn (versus USD23.5mn in Q4FY19). The segment also saw significant
Sensex : 37,883 large deal wins which will help revenues come back in the company's stated band of
Sector : IT USD28mn-USD30mn. TCV wins for the quarter was at USD151mn with 80% of the deal wins
Market Cap (INRbn) : 173.2
in New-Gen Services. EBIT margin at 15.5% was down 30bps QoQ and broadly in-line with
Market Cap (USDbn) : 2.509
O/S Shares (m) : 186.3
street expectations. Margins in the quarter were impacted by a) costs related to large deal
52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 1279/855 wins b) visa costs and c) salary hikes during the quarter. Company has maintained its EBIT
Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 253 margin band at 15-17% for FY20.
Bloomberg : MPHL IN
Source: Bloomberg
Mphasis USD revenues in FY19 grew strongly by 13%, we expect growth
rates to moderate however we still expect double digit growth of 10.8/11%
Valuation
FY19 FY20e FY21e
in FY20/FY21E respectively. Our numbers are largely intact. The stock is
EPS (INR) 56.1 63.0 71.0 trading at 14.7/13x FY20/FY21E EPS. We like Mphasis for its consistent
P/E 16.5 14.7 13.0 performance in revenues & margins and strong FCF generation (Adjusted
P/BV 3.4 3.0 2.8 FCF/NI at 93% for FY19). We believe the current valuations provide a good
EV/EBITDA 13.8 11.4 10.1
entry point. Maintain BUY with TP of INR1,080 based on 15x FY21E EPS.
Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 3.4 3.8
Source: Company, Antique Growth led by BFS and emerging markets
Returns (%) USD revenue growth of 1.8% during the quarter was led by BFS (up 2.6% QoQ) and emerging
1m 3m 6m 12m
markets (up 4.3% QoQ). Among other verticals Insurance de-grew by 0.8% QoQ and IT,
Absolute (3) (3) 1 (17)
Relative 1 (0) (4) (19) communication & entertainment de-grew by 2.3% QoQ. Insurance saw a one-time impact of
Source: Company, Antique project delivery ending. Company's outlook across verticals remains steady baring BFS where
Shareholding pattern the company is seeing some challenges on the Asset management and Investment banking
side. However on the consumer facing banking side, company is seeing robust demand
Promoters : 52%
environment. Among geographies growth was led by USA (up 3.4% QoQ). EMEA/India
Public : 48%
Others : 0% and RoW declined by 4.9/1.4/3.8% QoQ respectively.

Source: Bloomberg Financial summary

1QFY20 4QFY19 QoQ (%) 1QFY19 YoY (%) FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Price performance vs Nifty
Revenue (USDmn) 297 292 1.8 269 10.5 989 1,119 1,239 1,376
120 Revenue 20,626 20,250 1.9 18,202 13.365,458 77,311 86,723 96,633
100 EBITDA 3,743 3,404 10.0 3,201 16.9 10,623 13,240 15,930 17,669
80 EBIT 3,193 3,204 (0.3) 3,022 5.7 9,914 12,481 13,727 15,402
60 PBT 3,535 3,477 1.7 3,429 3.111,404 14,070 15,479 17,402
Jul-18 Nov-18 Mar-19 Jul-19 Adjusted PAT 2,647 2,662 (0.6) 2,583 2.5 8,504 10,731 11,725 13,226
Mphasis NIFTY Adjusted EPS (INR) 14.2 14.3 (0.5) 13.4 6.4 43.4 56.1 63.0 71.0
Source: Bloomberg Indexed to 100 Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 2

Quarterly Financials- Revenue miss, margins in-line

INRmn 1QFY20 4QFY19 QoQ (%) 1QFY19 YoY (%)
Revenue (USDmn) 296.9 291.7 1.8 269 10.5
Revenue 20,626 20,250 1.9 18,202 13.3
Cost of revenues 14,771 14,815 (0.3) 12,945 14.1
Gross profit 5,855 5,435 7.7 5,257 11.4
Operating expenses 2,112 2,031 4.0 2,056 2.7
EBITDA 3,743 3,404 10.0 3,201 16.9
Depreciation 550 200 175.0 179 207.3
EBIT 3,193 3,204 (0.3) 3,022 5.7
Interest and other income 342 273 25.3 407 (16.0)
PBT 3,535 3,477 1.7 3,429 3.1
Income tax 888 815 9.0 846 5.0
Reported PAT 2,647 2,662 (0.6) 2,583 2.5
Adjusted PAT 2,647 2,662 (0.6) 2,583 2.5
Adjusted EPS (INR) 14.2 14.3 (0.5) 13.4 6.4

Margins 1QFY20 4QFY19 QoQ (bps) 1QFY19 YoY (bps)

Gross profit 28.4 26.8 155 28.9 -49
EBITDA 18.1 16.8 134 17.6 56
EBIT 15.5 15.8 -34 16.6 -112
Net profit 12.8 13.1 -31 14.2 -136
Source: Company, Antique

Growth momentum to continue and remain in double digit going forward

20.0%

11.1%
1500

10.8%
15.0%

13.1%
1300
10.7%

10.0%
-6.4%

1100
-1.9%

-3.5%

5.0%
900

700 0.0%

500 -5.0%

300 -10.0%
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e
Revenue (USDm) Revenue grow th (YoY) (%)
Source: Company, Antique

Doule-digit YoY USD revenue growth for the seventh consecutive quarter
19.2%

25.0%
16.4%
13.7%
12.6%

12.4%

20.0%
10.4%
10.5%

15.0%
8.1%

10.0%
2.9%
1.1%

5.0%
0.0%
-9.7%
-10.3%

-1.0%

-1.2%

-1.8%
-2.4%

-5.0%
-4.3%
-4.6%
-5.1%

2QFY17 -5.4%
1QFY16 -6.2%

-10.0%
-15.0%
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15

2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17

3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20

Revenue grow th (YoY) (%)

Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 3

USD revenue growth for the quarter below expectations

320 6.0%

300 4.0%

280 2.0%

260 0.0%

240 -2.0%

220 -4.0%

1QFY15 250
2QFY15 239
3QFY15 226
4QFY15 228
1QFY16 234
2QFY16 237
3QFY16 229
4QFY16 226
1QFY17 224
2QFY17 224
3QFY17 224
4QFY17 222
1QFY18 231
2QFY18 242
3QFY18 252
4QFY18 264
1QFY19 269
2QFY19 276
3QFY19 283
4QFY19 292
1QFY20 297
200 -6.0%

Revenue (USDm) Revenue grow th (QoQ) (%)

Source: Company, Antique

HP/DXC grows by 2%/14.8% QoQ/YoY

200 15%
180
160 10%
140 5%
120
90

100 0%
86

84
83
82
78

78
74
71

71
67

80

65
63

63
60
55
55

53
54
54
-5%
52

60
40 -10%
20
0 -15%
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
HP Business QoQ grow th (%)
Source: Company, Antique

TCV signing of USD151mn in Direct International

300
TTM Avg. USD146mn TTM Avg. USD157mn
260

220

180

140

100

60

20 184 130 116 153 210 122 146 151

-20 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20

TCV of deal w ins (USDm) Average (USD mn)

Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 4

EBIT margin at 15.5%, down 30bps QoQ and largely in-line with estimates
17.0% 16.8% 16.6%
16.4%
16.5%
16.0% 15.8% 15.8%
15.4% 15.5%
15.5% 15.2% 15.3%
15.0% 14.6%
14.3% 14.4%
14.5%
14.0% 13.8%

13.5%
13.0%

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
EBIT margin

Source: Company, Antique

Cash and cash equivalents at INR21.6bn

39

33.6

32.0
35

30.5

30.2
29.9
29.3

31
27.6

27.4

27.4
27.0

26.6

25.2
24.8
27

23.2

21.6
21.1

21.1
23

19.9
18.3
19

15
3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

3QFY17

4QFY17

1QFY18

2QFY18

3QFY18

4QFY18

1QFY19

2QFY19

3QFY19

4QFY19

1QFY20
Cash (INR bn)
Source: Company, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 5

Financials
Profit and loss account (INRm) Cash flow statement (INRm)
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Net Revenue 60,764 65,458 77,311 86,723 96,633 PBT 11,144 11,407 14,073 15,479 17,402
Op. Expenses 51,075 54,835 64,071 70,794 78,964 Depreciation & amortisation 792 422 758 2,202 2,267
EBITDA 9,689 10,623 13,240 15,930 17,669 Interest expense 131 101 174 199 100
Depreciation 793 709 759 2,202 2,267 (Inc)/Dec in working capital (1,045) (1,502) (1,421) (5,043) (2,534)
EBIT 8,896 9,914 12,481 13,727 15,402 Tax paid (2,903) (2,783) (3,427) (3,755) (4,176)
Other income 2,385 1,620 1,744 2,251 2,400 Less: Interest/Div. Income Recd. (827) (219) (272) (1,999) (2,000)
Interest Exp. 139 130 155 499 400 Other operating Cash Flow (801) (882) (881) - -
Extra Ordinary Items -gain/(loss) (152) (131) - - - CF from operating activities 6,491 6,543 9,005 7,084 11,058
Reported PBT 10,989 11,273 14,070 15,479 17,402 Capital expenditure (1,150) (313) (2,511) (1,140) (1,098)
Tax 3,076 2,901 3,339 3,755 4,176 Inc/(Dec) in investments 3,055 5,039 5,100 - -
Reported PAT 7,913 8,373 10,731 11,725 13,226 Add: Interest/Div. Income Recd. 773 200 305 1,999 2,000
Net Profit 7,913 8,373 10,731 11,725 13,226 CF from investing activities 2,679 4,925 2,894 859 902
Adjusted PAT 8,066 8,504 10,731 11,725 13,226 Inc/(Dec) in share capital 3 29 104 - -
Adjusted EPS (INR) 38.4 44.0 56.1 63.0 71.0 Inc/(Dec) in debt (1,976) 1,281 1,246 - -
Dividend Paid (5,126) (4,047) (4,818) (7,234) (8,035)
Balance sheet (INRm) CF from financing activities (7,100) (2,737) (3,469) (7,234) (8,035)
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e Net cash flow 2,070 8,731 8,430 709 3,925
Share Capital 2,104 1,933 1,862 1,862 1,862 Opening balance 8,572 6,144 4,653 3,532 4,241
Reserves & Surplus 59,420 52,885 50,636 55,326 60,616 Closing balance 10,642 14,875 13,083 4,241 8,166
Networth 61,524 54,818 52,498 57,188 62,478
Debt 2,602 3,899 5,426 5,426 5,426 Growth indicators (%)
Net deferred Tax liabilities (3,369) (696) (487) (487) (487) Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Capital Employed 60,757 58,020 57,437 62,127 67,417 Revenue(%) (0.1) 7.7 18.1 12.2 11.4
Gross Fixed Assets 4,105 4,304 5,357 6,457 7,557 EBITDA(%) 7.7 9.6 24.6 20.3 10.9
Accumulated Depreciation 1,872 2,478 3,244 5,447 7,714 Adj PAT(%) 17.5 5.4 26.2 9.3 12.8
Capital work in progress 11 23 29 69 109 Adj EPS(%) 17.5 14.7 27.3 12.3 12.8
Net Fixed Assets 2,244 1,848 2,142 1,080 (47)
Goodwill 14,069 17,014 19,585 19,585 19,585 Valuation (x)
Investments 29,922 17,821 13,292 13,292 13,292 Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Non Current Investments 1,255 3,169 2,592 2,592 2,592 P/E 24.1 21.0 16.5 14.7 13.0
Current Investments 28,667 14,651 10,700 10,700 10,700 P/BV 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.0 2.8
Current Assets, Loans & Adv. 23,408 32,113 37,878 40,106 46,749 EV/EBITDA 16.8 16.6 13.8 11.4 10.1
Debtors 6,279 8,116 18,487 19,150 20,847 EV/Sales 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8
Cash & Bank balance 6,144 7,067 6,416 7,125 11,009 Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.4 3.8
Loans & advances and others 10,985 16,929 12,975 13,831 14,893
Current Liabilities & Prov. 8,887 10,776 15,460 11,935 12,160
Financial ratios
Liabilities 3,878 5,024 7,850 4,655 5,192
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
RoE (%) 13.4 14.6 20.0 21.4 22.1
Provisions 5,009 5,752 7,609 7,280 6,968
RoCE (%) 19.1 19.4 24.6 26.7 27.5
Net Current Assets 14,521 21,337 22,418 28,170 34,588
Asset/T.O (x) 3.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0
Application of Funds 60,757 58,020 57,437 62,127 67,418
Net Debt/Equity (x) (0.5) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3)
Per share data
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
Margins (%)
No. of shares (m) 210 193 191 186 186
Year-ended March 31 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e
EBITDA Margin(%) 15.9 16.2 17.1 18.4 18.3
Diluted no. of shares (m) 210 193 191 186 186
EBIT Margin(%) 14.6 15.1 16.1 15.8 15.9
BVPS (INR) 293 284 274 307 336
PAT Margin(%) 12.8 12.7 13.6 13.2 13.4
CEPS (INR) 41.4 47.0 60.0 74.8 83.2
DPS (INR) 16.9 20.0 28.0 31.5 35.5 Source: Company Antique

Source: Company, Antique

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 29 July 2019 | 6

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