Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
Central Committee
The new Central Committee will comprise 58% incumbents from the last party
congress and 42% new members. This compares with 51% and 49%, respectively
from the 10th Congress in 2006. This is about average for leadership turnover.
Ten ministers in the present Cabinet were not re‐elected to the Central Committee.
They likely will vacate their portfolios at the next session of the National Assembly
following elections on 22nd May (or sooner if some elect to step down early).
The ten ministers and their ministries are:
• Pham Gia Khiem ‐ foreign affairs
• Vo Hong Phuc ‐ planning and investment
• Ho Nghia Dung ‐ transportation
• Tran Van Tuan ‐ Interior (Home Affairs)
• Hoang Van Phong ‐ science and technology
• Nguyen Hong Quan ‐ construction
• Tran Van Truyen ‐ state inspection committee
• Le Doan Hop ‐ information and communications
• Pham Khoi Nguyen ‐ Natural Resources, Environment...
• Nguyen Quoc Trieu – Health
The twelve ministers and their ministries who retained their seats on the Central
Committee include:
• Minister of Defense Phung Quang Thanh
• Minister of Public Security Le Hong Anh
• Minister – Chairman of the Government Office Nguyen Xuan Phuc
• Minister of Finance Vu Van Ninh
• Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang
• Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat
2
• Minister of Labor, War Invalids and Social Affairs Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan
• Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism Hoang Tuan Anh
• Mister of Justice Ha Hung Cuong
• Minister of Education and Training Pham Vu Luan
• Minister – Chairman of the National Committee for Ethnic Groups Giang Seo
Phu
• Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam Nguyen Van Giau
The big question mark is who will be the next Foreign Minister. None of the current
Politburo incumbents nor any of the newcomers have demonstrable expertise in this
area.
Foreign Affairs increased its representation on the Central Committee after a slump
at the last congress with the appointment of three deputy ministers, including the
son of former Foreign Minister Nguyen Co Thach. It would be highly unusual but not
unprecedented if the foreign minister were not a member of the Politburo
(reference Nguyen Dy Nien).
The election of several vice ministers to the Central Committee may be an indication
that they will replace the current ministers after the May 22nd elections.
• Planning and Investment – Bui Quang Vinh
• Science and Technology – Nguyen Quan
• Construction – Trinh Dinh Dung
• Health – Nguyen Thi Kim Tien
The Defence Ministry and Army have held their own on the Central Committee with
19 representatives or 10.8% of the membership, a figure that has been relatively
constant over the past several decades. The Public Security bloc reflects similar
continuity with eight members (4.6% of total membership).
Politburo
The most surprising aspect of the new Politburo is that members of the newly
elected Central Committee nixed the original plan to expand membership from 15 to
17. With the retirement of six incumbents this would have meant eight new
members. The Central Committee limited the Politburo to 14 and so only five new
members were included.
These new members include (see comments below about the order in which these
newcomers appear):
• Tran Dai Quang (born 1956), deputy minister of public security who hails
from Ninh Binh province.
• Tong Thi Phong (born1954), head of the Central Committee’s Mass
Mobilisation Commission. She is the only female on the Politburo and is a
Thai ethnic minority from Son La province.
• Ngo Van Du – (born 1947) is the director of the Office of the party Central
Committee. He is the oldest of the newcomers, aged 64. He hails from Vinh
Phuc province.
3
• Dinh The Huynh – (born 1953), is the long‐standing editor of the party
newspaper, Nhan Dan. He comes from Nam Dinh province.
• Nguyen Xuan Phuc – (born 1954) head of the Government Office, a native of
Quang Nam province.
The average age of the new Politburo is 61 years. The average age of the 9
incumbents is 63 and the average age of the newcomers is 58. This represents a very
gradual generational transition.
The positions of incumbent members of the Politburo are likely to be:
• Nguyen Phu Trong – party Secretary General (confirmed)
• Truong Tan Sang – state president
• Nguyen Tan Dung – prime minister‐elect apparent
• To Huy Rua – head of the party Secretariat (not yet announced)
• Phung Quang Thanh – Minister of National Defence
• Nguyen Sinh Hung – Chairman of the National Assembly (by default)
• Le Hong Anh – Minister of Public Security
• Pham Quang Nghi – Hanoi party secretary
• Le Thanh Hai – Ho Chi Minh City party secretary
Finally, the name list of the newly elected Politburo should be noted. It appears as if
the members are listed according to the number of votes they received from Central
Committee members. If this is the case it is notable that Truong Tan Sang tops the
list. Reports indicate that Defence Minister Phung Quang Thanh received 95% of the
vote (ranked second), so Sang’s popularity among senior party members ranks very
high. Nguyen Tan Dung, the man he challenged for the prime ministership, came in
third followed by Nguyen Sinh Hung, a past thorn in the prime minister’s side.
Minister of Public Security Le Hong Anh, who topped the list five years ago, has now
fallen to fifth place. Le Thanh Hai’s position at number six is surprising given the
whiff of scandal surrounding him at the time of his re‐election as party boss in Ho Chi
Minh City. Up and coming party ideologue To Huy Rua drew second last slot among
the incumbents, with the Hanoi party secretary coming in at ninth position.
The newcomers in the discussion above were listed according to their place on the
Politburo list.
Net Assessment
In 1982 at the fifth party congress, the party declared that they wanted to overcome
the chaotic overlap between party and state. In the decades since there has been
some disentanglement but the overlap persists. As Vietnam has opened its economy
and integrated globally, the state – the Cabinet and Office of the Prime Minister –
have become more powerful vis‐a‐vis the party apparatus. The jostling between
Truong Tan Sang and Nguyen Tan Dung may be seen as a clash of personalities, but
in light of the increasing power of the Office of Prime Minister, their jostling may be
seen as a reflection of tensions between party and state over policy making and
policy implementation roles.
4
Some media reports highlighted the overwhelming importance of “patronage and
power” as the key by‐product of Vietnam’s national party congress process. This
observation has a ring of common sense but it has never been empirically tested.
This approach to Vietnamese politics downplays personality clashes, policy
differences and depreciates the importance of ideology among party leaders. The
patronage model fails to explain the institutionalization of politics through regular
leadership turnover. For example, there is a rapid change of provincial party
secretaries during the five‐year term of the Central Committee. At the last party
congress not all provinces were represented on the Central Committee. What do we
call a patronage network without its “patron”? There are other processes at work
other than the struggle for power and patronage, for example, limits on age the
terms in office.
An alternate approach would be to view party congresses and leadership selection as
a product of sectoral representation. The military is one sector, for example. Other
sectors would include provincial party leaders, the public security bloc, senior state
officials (in government, in Cabinet and the National Assembly), senior party officials
(Politburo, Central Committee commissions, other functionaries) etc.
The Vietnamese political system is engineered to seek equilibrium. This is reflected
somewhat in regional representation of high offices. The rise of southerners to top
positions appears balanced by the new intake which is conspicuous for its absence of
those from the south. It is important not to make too much of this point, however.
The present leadership arrangements appears to provide equilibrium between an
increasingly powerful and assertive prime minister and his detractors, Truong Tan
Sang and Nguyen Sinh Hung, who may hold the posts of state president and
chairman of the National Assembly. Prime Minster Nguyen Tan Dung, after all, will
have to get the National Assembly to legislate on his policy initiatives.
After the last party congress Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung won the right to
nominate his choices as Cabinet ministers to the party Central Committee for vetting
and approval before their formal presentation to the National Assembly. With ten
vacancies to fill, Prime Minister Dung has the opportunity to fashion a Cabinet that
will implement his policy making priorities. After the last congress, Dung tried to
reduce the number of deputy prime ministers and add his nominees (Hoang Trung
Hai and Nguyen Thien Nhan were both re‐elected to the Central Committee). His
proposal created friction and in the end the number of deputy prime ministers was
increased from three to five. Two have now retired – Truong Vinh Trong and Pham
Gia Khiem – while the third, first deputy prime minister Nguyen Sinh Hung is set to
take on other duties. Similarly, Dung has the opportunity to put his men in as
deputies. The process of working out the next Government could see the re‐
emergence of past tensions among leaders.
It would be a mistake to end this analysis on this point. The reality is that Nguyen
Tan Dung is responsible to the Politburo and more particularly to an increasingly
assertive Central Committee. The new Central Committee will set the agenda for
their executive sessions (plenum – hoi nghi) over the next five years. The Central
Committee must meet a minimum of twice a year. The Central Committees elected
at the 9th and 10th party congresses met fifteen times. The point to be made is that
5
the Central Committee is likely to reflect current concerns over hot button economic
issues – rising inflation, the trade deficit, inefficient state‐owned enterprise. In short,
Prime Minister Dung has his work cut out over the next several months before the
Central Committee convenes and reviews progress in addressing issues related to
macro‐economic stability and his handling of economic policy.
1
VCP POLITBURO
Trần Đại Quang
Lê Hồng Anh
Tòng Thị Phóng
Lê Thanh Hải
Phùng Quang Thanh
Ngô Văn Dụ
Tô Huy Rứa
Nguyễn Tấn Dũng
Đinh Thế Huynh
Nguyễn Sinh Hùng
Phạm Quang Nghị
Nguyễn Xuân Phúc
Nguyễn Phú Trọng