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Cause Analysis Of The Co2 Emission In Most Countries Of The World In 2007

Adriana Coba*
*Master of Science in International Business Development‘s candidate, University of Neuchâtel, Semester autumn of 2010.

Abstract: This report pretends to demonstrate that exist a correlation between CO2 emissions by country and other factors
in 2007, which are: Electric power consumption, Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita, Fossil fuel energy
consumption and Energy production.

This report pretends to demonstrate that exist a correlation Then, to prove the above argument (Thesis8) it has been
between CO2 emissions by country1 (dependent variable2) used linear regression methods. With SPSS9, the method
and other factors (Independent variables) in 20073, which used to choose the variables was ascendant: This for
are: obtain, in the first step, the explanatory variables that can
 Electric power consumption 4 have more correlation with the dependent. Then the
 Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption per following results were obtained:
capita5
 Fossil fuel energy consumption 6
Table 1: Variables Included and excluded in the models - ascendant
 Energy production7 approach

Figure 1, Shows the distribution of the CO2 Emissions per


capita, where the average is 6,44 Metric-tons per capita,
with a standard destination of 8,05. There are some
countries extremely far away for the average, as Qatar,
with emissions over 55 metric-tons per capita, or
Democratic Republique of Congo with less than 0,04
metric-tons per capita, as it can see in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Distribution of the CO2 Emissions in 132 Countries of the


world

It demonstrates that the variables that are more correlated


with CO2 emission per capita are “Transport sector
gasoline fuel consumption per capita (liters)” and Fossil
fuel energy consumption (% of total).

Data Source: WorldBank (http://data.worldbank.org/)


Elaborated: Coba It is totally consistent with the EPA (U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency) statement: "The largest source of CO2
1
CO2 Emissions: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC emissions globally is the combustion of fossil fuels such
(27.10.2010) as coal, oil and gas in power plants, automobiles,
2
“The independent variable is the variable that is varied or manipulated by the
researcher, and the dependent variable is the response that is measured”: industrial facilities and other sources"10.
University of North Carolina, http://www.uncp.edu/home/collierw/ivdv.htm
(29.10.2010)
3
2007 is the year of study, because is the last year with a complete range of
statistics in the data base of World Bank.
4
Electric power consumption:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC, (27.10.2010)
5
Transport sector gasoline fuel consumption: 8
“Thesis: a proposition stated, or put forward for consideration”: Dictionary.com,
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.ROD.SGAS.PC (27.10.2010) http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/thesis (30.10.2010)
6 9
Fossil fuel energy consumption: SPSS: Data Mining, Statistical Analysis Software, Predictive analysis Software
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.COMM.FO.ZS (27.10.2010) developed by IBM: IBM, www.spss.com, (31.10.2010)
7 10
Energy production: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.EGY.PROD.KT.OE Carbon Dioxide: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/co2_human.html,
(27.10.2010) (29.10.2010)
Table 2: Errors and adjustments of each model
Figure 2: Graphical representation of the relation between "Transport
sector gasoline fuel consumption per capita", "Fossil fuel energy
consumption" and CO2 emissions.

The data for each model can be seen in table 2. Analyzing


the second model, it can be noted that there is a chance of
64% (R2 = 0.64011) that the high level of per capita CO2
emissions, can be explained by "Transport sector gasoline
fuel consumption per capita" and "Fossil fuel energy
consumption" Unlike first model, which shows 59% of
R2.

Also, the error which may occur in the estimate is lower


in model 2 (4.871) than in first model (5.161).
Then, based in the above mentioned, and in the figure 2,
is important to mention that:
- In the Countries, the CO2 emissions are mostly
Table 3: ANOVA table and data for equation, for the selected model caused by the fossil fuel combustion (nearly 64%)
despite that, is not only the fossil combustion the
only cause (because the proportion is still lower to
be considerate as the single cause, it has be more
than 75%) there are other causes, like the changes in
land use and, particularly, deforestation12.
- The “Electric power consumption” and the “Energy
production” are not determinant variables for CO2
emissions.
- Qatar is an aberrant data, compared to the rest of the
countries (It has the major Cook distance: 0,7703).
As it has been mentioned in the first part of this
report,
- United States of America, has the most consumption
per capita of gasoline (Leverage distance: 0,179)

References
The value 0.000 in significant (ANOVA table, Colum - Steel, R. G. D. and Torrie, J. H., Principles and Procedures of
Sig) indicates a significant relationship between the Statistics, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1960, pp. 187, 287.
- Carbon Dioxide:
dependent variable and all independent variables, being http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/co2_human.html,
able to say, that to the plane defined by the equation (Consulted 29.10.2010)
offers a setting to the point cloud. Then, the linear - Dictionary.com: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/thesis,
equation is: (Consulted 30.10.2010)
- Greenpeace: http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/campaigns/energ-
a/causas/di-xido-de-carbono, (Consulted 30.10.2010)
- SPSS: www.spss.com,(Consulted 31.10.2010)
- University of North Carolina:
http://www.uncp.edu/home/collierw/ivdv.htm, (Consulted
29.10.2010)
- World bank: http://data.worldbank.org/ (Consulted 25.10.2010.

11 12
According to Steel, R. G. D. and Torrie R2 is “the proportion of variability in a Greenpeace: http://www.greenpeace.org/espana/campaigns/energ-a/causas/di-
data set that is accounted for by the statistical model”. xido-de-carbono, (30.10.2010)

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