Performance Prediction

by
Dr Anil Kumar
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Combining the MBE and fluid flow equation concepts would
enable to predict the reservoir future production performance
as a function of time.

N = NpBo + Bg (Gp − NpRs ) − G(Bg − Bgi ) − (We −Wp)

Bo − Boi + (Rsi − Rs )Bg

Where:
N=Initial oil in place, Np= oil produced, Boi= initial FVF, Bo= FVF,
G=initial gas cap volume, Gp=cumulative gas produced, Gps=
solution gas produced, Gpc=gas cap produced, Bgi=initial gas
FVF, Bg= gas FVFRsi=initial GOR, Rs=GOR, We= cumulative water
influx, Wp=cumulative water production.
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Prediction of the reservoir future performance is ordinarily
performed in the following two phases:

Phase 1. Predicting cumulative hydrocarbon production as a

function of declining reservoir pressure. This stage is
accomplished without regard to:
• Actual number of wells
• Location of wells
• Production rate of individual wells
• Time required to deplete the reservoir
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Phase 2.
The second stage of prediction is the time-production
phase.
In these calculations, the reservoir performance data,
as calculated from Phase One, are correlated with time.
It is necessary in this phase to account for the number
of wells and the productivity of each well.
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
PHASE 1. RESERVOIR PERFORMANCE PREDICTION METHODS
The material balance equation in its various mathematical forms
is designed to provide with estimates of the initial oil in place N,
size of the gas cap m, and water influx We.
To use the MBE to predict the reservoir future performance, it
requires two additional relations:

• Equation of producing (instantaneous) gas-oil ratio

• Equation for relating saturations to cumulative oil production
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio
The produced gas-oil ratio (GOR) at any particular time is the
ratio of the standard cubic feet of total gas being produced at
any time to the stock-tank barrels of oil being produced at that
same instant. Hence, the name instantaneous gas-oil ratio.
The GOR mathematically can be described by the following
expression:

(1)
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio
The instantaneous GOR, as expressed in scf/STB, is defined as
the total gas flow rate, i.e., free gas and solution gas, divided by
the oil flow rate, or
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio
Using the concept in Darcy’s equation and expressing the flow
rate in standard conditions yield:

Qo, Qw = oil and water flow

rates, STB/day
Bo, Bw = oil and water FVF,
bbl/STB
Qg = gas flow rate, scf/day
Bg = gas formation volume
factor, bbl/scf
k = absolute permeability, md
dp/dr = pressure gradient at
radius r
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Instantaneous Gas-Oil Ratio
GOR for free gas will be

Free gas GOR = _____________________________

Produced GOR =
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir

GOR
= Rsi GOR = Rs
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
There are three types of gas-oil ratios, all expressed in
scf/STB, which must be clearly distinguished from each
other.
These are:
• Instantaneous GOR (defined by Equation-1)
• Solution GOR
• Cumulative GOR
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution Gas oil Ratio
The solution gas-oil ratio is a PVT property of the crude oil
system.
It is commonly referred to as gas solubility and denoted by Rs.
It measures the tendency of the gas to dissolve in or evolve from
the oil with changing pressures.
As long as the gas saturation Sg is less than the critical gas
saturation, evolved gas remains immobile and the instantaneous
GOR is equal to the gas solubility, i.e.:
GOR = Rs
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Cumulative Gas oil Ratio Rp
The cumulative gas-oil ratio Rp, is the ratio of cumulative gas
produced to the cumulative oil produced.
It should be clearly distinguished from the producing
(instantaneous) gas-oil ratio (GOR).
The cumulative gas-oil ratio is defined as:
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Cumulative Gas Produced Gp
The cumulative gas produced Gp is related to the instantaneous
GOR and cumulative oil production by the expression:

The incremental cumulative gas produced ΔGp between Np1,

and Np2 is then given by:
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Cumulative Gas Produced Gp
The above integral can be approximated:
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Cumulative Gas Production Gp
Example:

(pb)
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Cumulative Gas Produced Gp
Solution:
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Cumulative Gas Produced Gp
Solution:
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
The Reservoir Saturation Equations
The saturation of a fluid (gas, oil, or water) in the reservoir is
defined as the volume of the fluid divided by the pore volume,
or:
(1)

(2)

(3)

So + Sw + Sg = 1.0 (4)
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
The Reservoir Saturation Equations
Consider a volumetric oil reservoir with no gas cap that contains
N stock-tank barrels of oil at the initial reservoir pressure pi.
Assuming no water influx gives:
Soi = 1 − Swi
From the definition of oil saturation:

(5)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
The Reservoir Saturation Equations
If the reservoir has produced Np stock-tank barrels of oil, the
remaining oil volume is given by:
remaining oil volume = (N − Np) Bo (6)
Substituting Equations-5 and 6 into Equation 1 gives:

(7)

(8)

(9)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir

Example
A volumetric solution-gas-drive reservoir has an initial
water saturation of 20%. The initial oil formation
volume factor is reported at 1.5 bbl/STB. When 10% of
the initial oil was produced, the value of Bo decreased
to 1.38. Calculate the oil saturation and gas saturation.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution
From Equation-8
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
For solution gas drive Reservoir two cases may be considered.
• Under saturated-oil reservoirs
• Saturated-oil reservoirs
Under saturated-Oil Reservoirs
When the reservoir pressure is above the bubble-point pressure
of the crude oil system, the reservoir is considered an under
saturated.
The general material balance is expressed
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
For a volumetric undersaturated reservoir with no fluid injection,
the following conditions are observed:
m=0
We = 0
Rs = Rsi = Rp
Imposing the above conditions on the MBE reduces the equation
to the following simplified form:

(10)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Hawkins introduced the oil compressibility co into the MBE to
further simplify the equation.

Bo − Boi = co Boi Δp
Combining the above expression with Equation -10 gives:

(11)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
The denominator of the above equation can be written as:

(12)

𝑐𝑜(1−𝑆𝑤𝑖)+𝑆𝑤𝑖𝑐𝑤+𝑐𝑓
Boi ∆p
1−𝑆𝑤𝑖
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Since there are only two fluids in the reservoir, i.e., oil and
water, then:

Soi + Swi = 1

Soi = 1 - Swi

Equation-12 can then be expressed as:

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
The term between the two brackets is called the effective
compressibility

(13)

Combining Equations 11, 12 and 13, the MBE above the bubble-
point pressure becomes:

(14)

Equation 14 can be expressed as an equation of a straight line

by:

(15)
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Rearranging Equation 14 and solving for the cumulative oil
production Np gives:

Np Bo=N(Boi Ce ∆𝑝 )

𝐵𝑜𝑖
Np = N ce ( )∆𝑝 (16)
𝐵𝑜
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Example
The following data are available on a volumetric oil reservoir:

pi = 4000 psi N = 85 MMSTB

cf = 5 × 10−6 psi−1 co = 15 × 10−6 psi−1
cw = 3 × 10−6 psi−1 Swi = 30%
Boi = 1.40 bbl/STB

Estimate cumulative oil production when the reservoir pressure

drops to 3500 psi. The oil formation volume factor at 3500 psi is
1.414 bbl/STB. Also calculate percentage of oil recovered up to
this pressure.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Step 1. Determine the effective compressibility from Equation
13.

Step 2. Estimate Np from Equation 16.

𝐵𝑜𝑖
Np = N ce ( )∆𝑝
𝐵𝑜
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Step 2. Estimate Np from Equation 16.

Np = (85×106)

0.98518 MMSTB

% of oil recovered

0.98518* 100/85 = 1.159

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
If the reservoir originally exists at its bubble-point pressure, the
reservoir is referred to as a saturated-oil reservoir.
This is considered as the second type of the solution-gas-drive-
reservoir.
The general MBE may be simplified by assuming that the
expansion of the gas is much greater than the expansion of rock
and, therefore, can be neglected.
For a volumetric and saturated-oil reservoir with no fluid
injection, the MBE can be expressed by:

(1)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
The material balance equation has two unknown parameters
which are:
• Cumulative oil production Np
• Cumulative gas production Gp
The reservoir and PVT data is used to predict the primary
recovery performance of a depletion-drive reservoir in terms of
Np and Gp:
There are several widely used techniques that were specifically
developed to predict the performance of solution-gas-drive
reservoirs, including:
• Tracy’s method
• Muskat’s method
• Tarner’s method
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
Tracy (1955) suggested that the material Balance relationship
can be rearranged into a more usable form as:

𝑁𝑝 𝐵0+𝐺𝑝𝐵𝑔 −𝑁𝑝 𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔−𝑊𝑒+ 𝑊𝑝𝐵𝑤

N= 𝐵
𝐵𝑜−𝐵𝑜𝑖 + 𝑅𝑠𝑖−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝑚 𝐵𝑜𝑖(𝐵 𝑔 −1)
𝑔𝑖

𝑁𝑝 𝐵0−𝑁𝑝 𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝐺𝑝𝐵𝑔 −𝑊𝑒+𝑊𝑝𝐵𝑤

N= 𝐵𝑔
𝐵𝑜−𝐵𝑜𝑖 + 𝑅𝑠𝑖−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝑚 𝐵𝑜𝑖( −1)
𝐵𝑔𝑖

𝑁𝑝 (𝐵0−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔)+𝐺𝑝(𝐵𝑔) +𝑊𝑝𝐵𝑤−𝑊𝑒

N= 𝐵
𝐵𝑜−𝐵𝑜𝑖 + 𝑅𝑠𝑖−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝑚 𝐵𝑜𝑖(𝐵 𝑔 −1)
𝑔𝑖
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs

𝑁𝑝 𝐵0−𝑁𝑝 𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝐺𝑝𝐵𝑔 −𝑊𝑒+𝑊𝑝𝐵𝑤

N= 𝐵
𝐵𝑜−𝐵𝑜𝑖 + 𝑅𝑠𝑖−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝑚 𝐵𝑜𝑖(𝐵 𝑔 −1)
𝑔𝑖

𝑁𝑝 (𝐵0−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔)+𝐺𝑝(𝐵𝑔) +𝑊𝑝𝐵𝑤−𝑊𝑒

N= 𝐵𝑔
𝐵𝑜−𝐵𝑜𝑖 + 𝑅𝑠𝑖−𝑅𝑠 𝐵𝑔+𝑚 𝐵𝑜𝑖( −1)
𝐵𝑔𝑖
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
The above relationship can be rearranged as:
N = Np Φo + Gp Φg + (Wp Bw −We) Φw (2)

where Φo, Φg, and Φw are considered PVT related properties

that are functions of pressure and defined by:

(3)

(4)

(5)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs

(6)

For a solution-gas-drive reservoir, Equations 2 can be

expressed:

N = Np Φo + Gp Φg (7)

Tracy’s calculations are performed in a series of pressure drops

that proceed from known reservoir condition at the previous
reservoir pressure p* to the new assumed lower pressure p.
The calculated results at the new reservoir pressure become
“known” at the next assumed lower pressure.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
In progressing from the conditions at any pressure p* to the
lower reservoir pressure p, consider that the incremental oil
and gas production are ΔNp and ΔGp, or:
Np = N*p + ΔNp (8)
Gp = G*p + ΔGp (9)
where N*p, G*p = “known” cumulative oil and gas production
at previous pressure level p*
Np, Gp = “unknown” cumulative oil and gas at new pressure
level p
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
Replacing Np and Gp in Equation -7
N = (N*p + ΔNp) Φo + (G*p + ΔGp) Φg (10)
The incremental cumulative gas production ΔGp can be
approximated as:
ΔGp = (GOR)avg ΔNp (11)
Replacing ΔGp in Equation 10 with that of 11 gives:
N = [N*p + ΔNp] Φo + [G*p + ΔNp (GOR)avg] Φg (12)

N = N*p Φo + ΔNp Φo + G*p Φg + ΔNp (GOR)avg Φg

N = ΔNp Φo + ΔNp(GOR)avg Φg + N*p Φo + G*p Φg

N = ΔNp (Φo +(GOR)avg Φg) + N*p Φo + G*p Φg

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
N = ΔNp (Φo +(GOR)avg Φg) + N*p Φo + G*p Φg

ΔNp (Φo +(GOR)avg Φg) = N – (N*p Φo + G*p Φg)

N − (N∗p Φo + G∗p Φg)

ΔNp =
(Φo +(GOR)avg Φg)

If above Equation is expressed for N = 1, the cumulative oil

production Np and cumulative gas production Gp become
fractions of initial oil in place. Rearranging Equation gives:

(13)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Saturated-Oil Reservoirs
Tracy suggested the following alternative technique for solving
Equation(13)
Step 1. Select an average reservoir pressure p.
Step 2. Calculate the values of the PVT functions Φo and Φg.
Step 3. Estimate the GOR at p.
Step 4. Calculate the average instantaneous GOR (GOR)avg =
(GOR* +GOR)/2.
Step 5. Calculate the incremental cumulative oil production
ΔNp from Equation 13:
Step 6. Calculate cumulative oil production Np; Np = N*p + ΔNp
Step 7. Calculate the oil and gas saturations at selected average
reservoir Pressure
Step 8. Obtain relative permeability ratio krg/kro at Sg.
Step 9. Calculate the instantaneous GOR from Equation.
GOR = Rs + (krg/kro) (μo Bo/μg Bg)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Example
The following PVT data characterize a solution-gas-drive
reservoir.

The following additional data are available:

pi = pb = 4350 psi Swi = 30% N = 15 MMSTB
Predict the cumulative oil and gas production to 3350 psi.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution
A sample of the Tracy’s calculation procedure is performed at
4150 psi.
Step 1. Calculate Tracy’s PVT functions at 4150
• Calculate the term Den from Equation-6
Den = (Bo − Boi) + (Rsi − Rs) Bg
Den = (1.42 − 1.43) + (840 − 820) (7.1 × 10−4) = 0.0042
• Calculate Φo and Φg
Φo = (Bo − Rs Bg)/Den
Φo = [1.42 − (820) (7.1 × 10−4)]/0.0042 = 199
Φg = Bg/Den
= 7.1 × 10−4/0.0042 = 0.17
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution

Step 8. Obtain relative permeability ratio krg/kro at Sg.

krg/kro = 1.7 × 10−4
Step 9. Calculate the instantaneous GOR from Equation.
GOR = Rs + (krg/kro) (μo Bo/μg Bg)
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution

Step 8. Calculate cumulative gas production.

Gp = 0 + (0.00292) (845) = 2.46

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution

15×106 = initial oil in place

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Material Balance equation to remember
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
PHASE 2. RESERVOIR PERFORMANCE with TIME
All reservoir performance techniques show the
relationship of cumulative oil production and the
instantaneous GOR as a function of average reservoir
pressure.
These techniques, however, do not relate the
cumulative oil production Np and cumulative gas
production Gp with time.
The time required for production can be calculated by
applying the concept of the inflow performance
relation (IPR) in conjunction with the MBE predictions.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Vogel (1969) expressed the well’s inflow
performance relationship by following equation, or:

Where Qo = Oil rate at Pwf

Qmax= maximum oil rate at zero wellbore
pressure i.e. AOF
Pr = current average reservoir pressure psig
Pwf = wellbore pressure psig
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir

Methodology to correlate the predicted

cumulative field production with time t.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Step 1. Plot the predicted cumulative oil
production Np as a function of average
reservoir pressure p. (Figure-1)

Figure:-1 Cumulative production as a function of average reservoir pressure.

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir

Methodology to correlate the predicted

cumulative field production with time t.

Step 2. Construct the IPR curve for each well in field at the
initial average reservoir pressure p*.

Calculate the oil flow rate for the entire field by taking the
summation of the flow rates.

Plot the flow rates as shown schematically in Figure 2 for

two hypothetical wells and establish the IPR for the field.
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir

Figure-2 Overall field IPR at current pressure.

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Step 3. Using the minimum bottom-hole flowing
pressure (pwf)min, determine the total field flow rate
(Qo)*T.
Step 4. Select a future average reservoir pressure p and
determine the future IPR for each well in field. Construct
the field IPR curve as shown in Figure 3.
Step 5. Using the pwf, determine the field total oil flow
rate (Qo)T.
Step 6. Calculate the average field production rate (Qo)T.
Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir

Figure 3. Future field IPR.

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Step 7. Calculate the time Δt required for the
incremental oil production ΔNp during the first pressure
drop interval, i.e., from p* to p, by:

Step 8. Repeat the above steps and calculate the total

time t to reach an average reservoir pressure p by:
t = Σ Δt
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Example:
A well is producing from a saturated reservoir with an
average reservoir pressure of 2500 psig. Stabilized
production test data indicated that the stabilized rate
and wellbore pressure are 350 STB/day and 2000 psig,
respectively.
Calculate:
• Oil flow rate at pwf = 1850 psig
• Calculate oil flow rate assuming constant J
• Construct the IPR by using Vogel’s method and the
constant productivity index approach.
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution:
Part A.
Step 1. Calculate (Qo)max:

= 1067.1 STB/day
Step 2. Calculate Qo at pwf = 1850 psig by using Vogel’s
equation

Qo
 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution:
Part B.
Calculating oil flow rate by using the constant J approach
Step 1. Apply Equation 7-1 to determine J

Step 2. Calculate Qo

Qo = J ( pr − pwf) = 0.7 (2500 − 1850) = 455 STB/day

 Performance Prediction of Oil reservoir
Solution:
Part C.
Generating the IPR by using the constant J approach and
Vogel’s method:
Assume several values for pwf and calculate the
corresponding Qo.
Thank You
Relative permeability data