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Valuation inputs
P/E 10y median Change?
20.0 20.0
3 year average free cash flow
1998
5 year average free cash flow Change?
-17
0% Required Margin of
safety %
Margin of safety
1%
STDV 0.39
Average FCF margin 0.22
FCF coefficient variation 179%
10y avg EPS 22.5
10y avg FCF per share 5.9
Financial strength 1 2
Y's to pay long term debt with net income 0.0 1.3
Y's pay long term debt with free cash flow 0.0 1.2
Debt/Equity 0.8 0.3
Current ratio 4.7 1.2
Interest coverage 3.3 4.0
Efficiency 1 2
FCF/Sales -2% 18%
CROIC 20%
ROTC 12% 12%
ROE 16% 21%
Gross margin 59% 66%
Operating margin 22% 22%
Net margin 13% 16%
Return on retained earnings
Historical valua
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Earnings grow
400.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-50.0
Earnings grow
Revenue / sales (mill) Operating Income (mill)
120000 16000 14601
103724
98655 14000
100000 90794 90744
12000 11480
80000 75460
65561 10000 8830 8836 9189
59450
60000 50123 8000
6381 6257
40206 6000 5479
40000 29491
25006 4000
20000
2000
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number Year number
0.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number Year number
Efficiency
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
-10%
-20%
FCF/Sales CROIC
20% 18% 25%
20%
15% 20%
13% 16%
15%
10% 8%
7% 9%
10%
5% 4%
4%
1% 1% 5%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0%
-2% -1% -1% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-5% -1% -1%
-5%
-7%
-10% -10% -8%
Year number Year number
5% 5%
0% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number Year number
Financial stren
Y's to pay long term debt with net inc. Y's pay long term debt with F
6.0 5.6 60.0
5.2
5.0 4.7 4.6 40.0
4.3
4.0
4.0 20.0 9.3
3.4 4.8
0.0 1.2 2.2
3.0 2.7 0.0
2.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-4.3
2.0 -20.0
1.3
1.0 -40.0
-42.5
5.0 4.7 4.6 40.0
4.3
4.0
4.0 20.0 9.3
3.4 4.8
0.0 1.2 2.2
3.0 2.7 0.0
2.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-4.3
2.0 -20.0
1.3
1.0 -40.0
0.0 -42.5
-47.7
0.0 -60.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
275
200% 271 271 271 271
270
270
150%
112% 113% 114% 265
93% 90% 261
100% 73% 63% 260
43% 35% 44%
50% 255
0% 250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number Year number
73% 63% 260
43% 35% 44%
50% 255
0% 250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year number Year number
Terminal Year -7
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows: -106
Terminal Value: 59294
Total PV of Cash Flows: 59187
Number of Shares: 282
Intrinsic Value (IV): 210
P/E valuation
5y average EPS 28.15
Average historical P/E 20.0
EPS growth rate 15%
Growth decline rate 2%
Discount rate 0%
2
Y's of O.C.F growth Operating margin
Y's of positive O.C.F 11 Net margin
FCF covariation 179% Return on retained earnings
Financial strength
Efficiency growth Median Y's to pay debt with net.Inc
FCF/Sales -22.5 % Y's to pay debt with FCF
CROIC -35.3 % Debt/Equity
ROTC -2.6 % Current ratio
ROE -2.7 % Interest coverage
Gross Margin 0.2 % F-Score
Operating margin -5.8 % Z-Score
Net margin -5.4 % M-Score
Checklist ratios
Dividend safety
Net Inc of cash from operation
Dividend payout ratio
Capex of operating cash flow
Cum. capex of Cum. net inc
3 4 5 6
23.9 21.8 34.3 49.7
6.0 5.1 6.7 6.4
3.0 2.7 3.3 3.7
17.2 22.3 24.5 52.7
3 4 5 6
40206 50123 59450 65561
6257 8830 8836 9189
4643 6147 5423 4753
17.01 22.89 20.00 17.52
0.40 2.00 2.00 2.00
271 271 271 271
75.3 88.7 105.2 115.6
8044 6496 8537 4817
5190 1786 4771 -626
4.33 5.59 4.7 4.13
1.55 1.72 1.61 1.43
0.55 0.69 0.81 0.85
3 4 5 6
2.4 2.7 4.3 5.6
2.2 9.3 4.8 -42.5
0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4
4.3 5.6 4.7 4.1
3 4 5 6
13% 4% 8% -1%
16% 4% 9% -1%
13% 15% 12% 10%
21% 24% 19% 16%
67% 67% 68% 70%
16% 18% 15% 14%
12% 12% 9% 7%
3 4 5 6
74.2 12.0 15.8 8.9
58% 95% 64% 99%
2% 9% 10% 11%
35% 73% 44% 113%
3 4 5 6
17.01 22.89 20.00 17.52
2 3
1 1 1 1
40206 50123 59450 65561
2 3 4 5
5190 1786 4771 -626
1 1 1 0
0.4 2.0 2.0 2.0
2 3 4 5
1 1 1 1
6257 8830 8836 9189
2 3 4
1 1 1 1
8044 6496 8537 4817
1 1 1 1
Historical valuation
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/Operating cash flow
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/Operating cash flow
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
6 7 8 9 10 11
Earnings growth
Operating Income (mill) Net Income (mill)
14601 10000 9160 8917
9000
12634 7742
11480 8000
7021 6839
10393 10040 7000 6147
8830 8836 9189 6000 5423
5000 4578 4643 4753
6381 6257
4000 3310
3000
2000
1000
0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number Year number
0.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number Year number
0.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number Year number
Efficiency
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
CROIC ROTC
16% 15%
20% 13%
14%
16% 12% 12% 12%
12% 12%
11% 11%
10% 10%
9% 10%
6% 8%
4%
1% 1% 6%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 4%
-1% -1%
2%
-8% 0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
Financial strength
Y's pay long term debt with FCF Debt/Equity
1.0 0.9
40.7 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.8 0.7
24.6 0.7
0.7
9.3 0.6 0.6
4.8 6.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
1.2 2.2
0.5
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-4.3 0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
-42.5 0.1
40.7 0.9 0.9
0.8 0.8
0.8 0.7
24.6 0.7
0.7
9.3 0.6 0.6
4.8 6.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
1.2 2.2
0.5
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
-4.3 0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
-42.5 0.1
-47.7
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number
Year number
64% 67% 4% 3%
49% 58% 52%
47% 2% 2%
2%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year number Year number
ods
8-10
-7%
0%
0%
Value
-16
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-8
-7
P/E Exp EPS Grwth Rate Dividend Yield Add'l P/E Points
7.00 0% 0.0% 0.0
7.65 1% 0.1% 0.5
9.8 8.30 2% 0.5% 0.5
8.95 3% 1.0% 1.0
0.5 9.60 4% 1.5% 1.5
10.25 5% 2.0% 2.0
10.90 6% 2.5% 2.5
1.00 11.55 7% 3.0% 3.0
1.00 12.20 8% ∆0.65 3.5% 3.5
12.85 9% 4.0% 4.0
1.00 13.50 10 % 4.5% 4.5
14.15 11 % 5.0% 5.0
14.80 12 % 5.5% 5.5
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
15.45 13 % 6.0% 6.0
16.10 14 % 6.5% 6.5
16.75 15 % 10.0% 10.0
17.40 16 %
17.90 17 %
18.40 18 %
18.90 19 %
19.40 20 %
19.90 21 % ∆0.50
20.40 22 %
20.90 23 %
21.40 24 %
21.90 25 %
7% 10% 9%
5.1 %
TTM 10y avg 5y avg
4.6 3.5 4.6
24.6 -0.5 -9.4
0.5 0.7 0.7
1.5 1.9 1.9
3.7 4.7 5.3
0
0
0
7 8 9 10 TTM Visually
33.4 16.7 22.4 16.1 21.4
5.3 3.1 3.3 1.7 2.5
3.1 1.8 2.1 1.0 1.4
72.7 25.6 11.9 7.4 11.1
7 8 9 10 TTM Visually
75460 90794 90744 98655 103724
11480 14601 12634 10393 10040
7021 9160 7742 8917 6839
25.00 32.45 27.44 31.60 24.24
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
281 282 282 282 282
145.1 167.4 193.2 209.2 209.0
3448 6574 16481 13242 13254
-5454 -911 6034 870 1271
6.62 6.31 4.74 4.76 3.7
1.48 2.54 2.13 1.67 1.45
0.58 0.92 0.74 0.60 0.53
7 8 9 10 TTM
25.00 32.45 27.44 31.60 24.24
4 5
1 1 1 1 1
75460 90794 90744 98655 103724
6 7 8 9
-5454 -911 6034 870 1271
1
0 0 1 1 1
2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
6 7 8 9 10
1 1 1 1 1
11480 14601 12634 10393 10040
5 6
1 1 1 1 1
3448 6574 16481 13242 13254
2
1 1 1 1 1
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/Operating cash flow
P/E
P/B
P/S
P/Operating cash flow
9160 8917
7742
6839
8 9 10 11
re
209.2 209.0
193.2
167.4
re
209.2 209.0
193.2
167.4
8 9 10 11
are
21.4
3.1 4.5
8 9 10 11
-3.2
share
58.4
47.0 47.0
23.3
8 9 10 11
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
FCF/Sales
CROIC
ROTC
ROE
Gross margin
Operating margin
Net margin
12%
11%
10%
8 9 10 11
10%
9% 9%
7%
8 9 10 11
0.9
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.5
8 9 10 11
43422
40307
35397
31230
8 9 10 11
tio
8%
7%
6% 6%
8 9 10 11
8 9 10 11
Interest coverageDebt/Equity
10y avg (TTM)
Debt/Equity 10y avg
Current ratio
Current
(TTM)ratio
Y's to10y
payavg
debt with net inc (TTM)
4.7 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.9 4.6
Checklist ratios
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
Score chart
s
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Y's to pay debt with net inc 10y avg Years to pay debt with FCF
Years
(TTM)
to pay debt with
FCF
FCF
(Free
10ycash
avg flow)
3.5 24.6 -0.5 -10%
Datainput from Morning
Current
3.27 3.66 3.09 1.76 2.13 0.96 1.41
34.3 49.74 33.42 16.66 22.4 16.09 21.44
24.48 52.72 72.71 25.55 11.85 7.4 11.07
6.67 6.36 5.31 3.08 3.31 1.66 2.49
TTM
59,450 65,561 75,460 90,794 90,744 98,655 103,724
2 2 2 2 2 2 2