A Novel Fuzzy Logic Based Technique for Power
Transformer Remnant Life Estimation
Muhammad Arshad
Curtin University of Technology
Perth, Western Australia
marshad@aus.ac.ae
ABSTRACT
Remnant Life estimation is a different concept in
transformer condition monitoring and is becoming
increasingly important as the average age of
transformer increases. Existing assets serving close to
their expected life or beyond are being considered for
further utilization in order to reduce capital expenditure
as the replacement cost of these transformers is too high.
Since many of these transformers are operating beyond
their rated life, asset reliability under peak load can’t be
ensured. Transformer failures are increasing in number
and having serious impact on forced outages, blackouts,
revenue and environmental/ collateral damages. The
remnant life assessment facilitates a flexible decision on
asset’s retirement/ replacement or relocation.
This paper presents a novel fuzzy logic technique to
predict power transformer remnant life.
1. I NTRODUCTION
Transformer failures usually include irreversible internal
damage and have many adverse effects. Sudden
transformer failure may cause the long term
unavailability, revenue loss, unscheduled expensive
maintenance, environmental and collateral damages [1,
2]. Also in some cases power interruptions imposes
penalty due to inability to provide continuous supply of
electricity. Alternate power resources will have to be
arranged to meet the demand. The study shows that
within Australia and New Zealand on average, failure of
ten transformers per year occurred during the period
from 1975 to 1995. The repair cost estimated at least
$600,000 per year, including other associated costs.
Transformer insulation system mostly under goes
electrical, thermal, mechanical and chemical stresses.
Transformer fails when its insulation system could not
withstand against any or combination of these stresses.
Materials with different dielectric properties within the
insulation system will discharge energy and may lead to
a breakdown. The failures in power transformer occur
due to ageing, contamination, poor maintenance
programs, operational stresses (overloading) and harsh
environmental conditions. Transformer remnant life
mainly depends on the cellulose degradation and
decomposition which generates water as a by-product.
Water affects dielectric properties of the insulation chain
with in the transformer and contributes to the ageing
phenomena [3]. Thermal stresses influence the cellulose
mechanical properties and accelerate the ageing
Syed M. Islam
Curtin University of Technology
Perth, Western Australia
s.islam@ece.curtin.edu.au
mechanism at higher temperatures. Thus the process
ultimately affects the reliability of the transformer and
reduces its residual life.
In a review presented by the Central Electricity
Generating Board (CEGB) of United Kingdom, 50% of
the 650 MVA transformers are serving with the age of
30 years. Also 30% of 275 and 400 MVA in service
transformers have reached to the age of 45 years. In the
United States, the installed power transformer capacity
has reduced from 185 Giga Volt Amperes (GVA) to 50
GVA per year over the past twenty-five years [4].
The average load growth rate observed is approximately
2%. Transformer utilization has been increased by 22%
on average, causing oil hotspot temperature to increase
by 48% (approximately ) at normal peak load. P eak load
insulation life is reduced by a factor of 8 (approximately )
due to gradual increase in the hotspot temperature [4] .
In the Australian and New Zealand utilities , the average
age of power transformer population for 66 kV, 10 MVA
and above is 35 years, with a considerable number of
transformers over 40 years [5]. Transformer failure
(repairable) rate for Australian utilities is around 1.2%
[6].
The current transformer fleet is fast approaching to end
of life, with out remnant life being assessed. There is a
high demand of the appropriate, reliable and non -
destructive diagnostics tools for transformer insulation
assessment. The significant requirement of such
diagnostics tools is due to the ageing of power
transformers, expensive to replace [7].
2. I NSULATION AGEING MECHANISM
The majority of solid insulation is based on cellulose in
the form of paper, pressboard or timber. In the presence
of heat, oxygen, water and other chemicals the cellulose
molecules undergo into chemical changes. This causes
the degradation in term of its electrical and mechanical
properties. The increase in operating temperature,
oxygen and moisture causes accelerated degradation.
One product of these reactions is a glucose, which
undergoes further degradation and yields a group of
chemicals called furans. Furans are significant because
they are more soluble in oil than glucose and can be used
as an indicator of cellulose ageing. Carbon monoxide
and carbon dioxide are also produced together with
water and some hydrogen. The cellulose molecules
become shorter on average, reducing its dielectric and
mechanical strength.
1
Due to the hygroscopic nature of oil, water and oxygen
in the insulation system will further accelerate the ageing
process. Moisture is the main cause of the accelerated
ageing process in cellulose. Major part of water is
contained in the solid insulation. The water in oil and its
movement from solid to oil is highly temperature
depended. Therefore water in oil is not the total amount
present in the transformer.
Transformer reliability and ageing highly depend on the
dryness of cellulose. The dryness of cellulose can not be
ensured from the measurement of water in oil [8]. With
the increase in moisture level, cellulose breakdown and
tensile strength decreases. Also sludge and metal
particles (iron & copper) affects the degradation process.
The activation energy of cellulose degradation in oil is of
the order of 85kJ/mole for the oxidative degradation
reaction and 120 KJ/mole for the hydrolytic degradation
reaction. The cellulose degradation increases
significantly above 140°C [9] .
The cellulose ageing rate is approximately proportional
to the amount of water in it. This simply means going
from 0.5 % moisture to 1.0 % accelerates the aging rate
by two. Faults levels such as short circuits and ove r
voltages have significant contribution in insulation
deterioration. The relation between ageing factors is
synergistic in nature and not just additive that makes the
ageing mechanism extremely complex. The ageing
mechanism of insulation system, within the high voltage
(HV) system can be split in to two categories such as,
intransitive and transitive ageing [10].
Intransitive Ageing: The ability of the insulating
material with the passage of time to withstand the
designed stresses such as electrical, mechanical, thermal,
chemical, and physical.
Transitive Ageing : It is the rapid ageing of the
insulating material when subjected to abnormal
condition.
The multi-stress ageing is very complex in term of the
large matrix of measurement, interpretation and analysis.
The lack of appropriate diagnostics and associated
equipment that are non-intrusive, efficient and
economical makes the multi-stress ageing much difficult.
Historical data analysis revealed that for every 10°C
increase will cause the insulation life to be halved [11].
3. TRANSFORMER R EMNANT LIFE ESTIMATION
The remnant life estimation fuzzy model indicates
various criticalities, rate of ageing and expected residual
life. Due to the cumulative effects of various factors it is
not possible to predict the remnant life with a great
degree of accuracy using statistical approach. Also it
would be not appropriate to assess the transformer with
statistical methods, even under constant or closely
controlled conditions [12].
Emissions associated with the insulation ageing process
are of interest in life assessment. All the factors
contribute collectively in the ageing of a transformer and
become difficult to assess its remnant life.
3.1.1. TRANSFORMER ASSESSMENT
Power transformer condition monitoring plays a decisive
role in the reliability of power systems operation.
Significant investment in terms of expertise and finance
is required for monitoring and diagnostics to ensure
regular insulation assessment. Utilities are now focusing
seriously on the cost and importance of diagnostic and
maintenance practices such as condition based
maintenance (CBM) or reliability centred maintenance
(RCM) [13, 14].
Transformer rate of ageing can be better judged from the
integration of expected criticalities. Laboratory
experiments and simulation of various operating
conditions and accelerated stress (various) procedures
may come to reality, but life predication remains
questionable [10]. It is possible to obtain an estimate of
remaining reliable life, provided ample data of all the
variables is available. The combined evaluation of the
diagnostics provides better estimation of transformer
remnant life. Power transformer end of life criteria could
be strategic, economic or technical[12]. A transformer
reaches to its end of practical life, when one or more of
the diagnostics characteristics decreases to a level where
further operation stands inadmissible. [15].
Furanic compound and moisture contents are the key
indicators for life assessment. Furanic compounds are
generated due to cellulose degradation with normal
ageing as well as due to incipient faults [16]. Furans are
also produced due to over all rise in temperature as well
as the heat produced by active fault in any localized area.
Due to degradation process, paper tensile and dielectric
strength decreases. Electromagnetic forces due to
through fault current have serious impact on the paper
life by lowering its tensile strength [16, 17].
The degree of polymerization (DP) together with
moisture content is another set of good indicator for
transformer remnant life mapping. Paper insulation, with
DP value greater than 1000, exhibits high dielectric and
tensile properties, where as DP less than 200 shows poor
dielectric and mechanical properties [18]. The
considerable difficulty in forecasting the end of life
suggests developing a remnant life estimation model
using fuzzy logic approach, based on actual test data and
sound experience judgment.
Moisture contents (%) are derived from the return
voltage measurement (RVM ). The RVM test is based on
the application of dc voltage to insulation to establish the
polarization and then the dc voltage is removed to relax
the dipole. RVM and relaxation time constant in the
insulation provides ample information on the moisture
level absorbed by the insulation. [2].
3.1.2. REMNANT LIFE FUZZY LOGIC MODELING
Due to the complexity in determining the transformer
remnant life estimation with precise mathematics, fuzzy
logic provides an approximate but practical means of
residual life prediction. For various reasons many
stresses act simultaneously inside the transformer which
increases the complexity and is not possible to build a
2
precise analytical model. The fuzzy knowledge based
expert system for power transformer remnant life
estimation encapsulates the engineer experienced
knowledge. The information is mostly inexact and
qualitative such as poor, satisfactory and excellent.
Expert system using fuzzy logic codifies the experience
based diagnosis and facilitates to enhance the
transformer reliability, maintainability and availab ility.
Inaccuracy in the single input variable will not invalidate
the result but will reduce the accuracy of the analysis up
to an acceptable understanding. The life estimation can
be still done if the knowledge base information is
incomplete [19]. A ll the parameters can be analyzed
individually as each rule satisfies the following criteria:
§ Relevant measurement with respect to the
transformer indicated condition.
§ Acceptable range for the measured quantity which
includes any uncertainty associated with this
measurement or acceptable range.
§ Importance of the measurement in determining the
condition of the transformer.
Most of the techniques used in transformer assessment
are based on ad-hoc basis or stand alone indicator. The
fuzzy logic model is an effective tool in transformer
assessment, such as its criticality rank, rate of ageing and
remnant life [20-22].
Membership Functions: Let X be a set of transformer
diagnostic data, called the universe, whose elements are
denoted x . Membership in a subset A of X is the
membership function, µA from X to the real interval
[0, 1]. Where A is a fuzzy set and is a subset of X that
has no sharp boundary. The µA is a grade of
membership x in A . The closer the value of µA is to 1,
the more x belongs to A [19, 23, 24].
A = {( x, µ A ( x)), x ∈ X )} Eq. 1
Also the support of the fuzzy set A in the universal set
X is the crisp set that contains all the elements of X .
A = {x ∈ X µ A ( x) > 0} Eq. 2
With the finite support, letx i be an element of the
support of fuzzy set A and µi a grade of membership
in A , then:
µ1 µ2 µ n
µ
+ ........+ n = ∑ i
A= Eq. 3
x1 x2 x n i =1 x i
The degree of membership is expressed as:
Fz[x ∈ A] = µ A (x) : ℜ → [0,1] Eq. 4
Where A is the fuzzy set represented by a membership
function, all the elements are denoted by a point x on
the real line ℜ . This is mapped to a degree of
membership value µ , lies somewhere on the real
interval of 0 to 1 [19, 25]. Mamdani’s model is used
such as:
MAMD(x, y) = Vi n=1 ( Ai (x ) & Bi ( y )) Eq. 5
µ A ∩ B (x ) = min [µ A (x ), µ B ( x )] ⇒ ∀ x ∈ X
Eq. 6
Where µ A∩ B is the respective membership function of
A∩ B
Fuzzy Rules: In terms of fuzzy logic, a set of knowledge
based linguistic rules are developed made of “IF–
THEN” type. In this model a fuzzy set A defined in a
universe X and the second set B defined in another
universe Y . Therefore the fuzzy implication mapped in
X − Y surface is given as [19, 23, 26]:
µ A → B (x , y ) = min [µ A ( x ), µ B ( y )] Eq. 7
∀x ∈ X , ∀ y ∈ Y Eq. 8
The knowledge based fuzzy rules are defined in term of
input variables to the fuzzy logic model for an output of
power transformer assessment. Demi-Cauchy or bell
shaped membership functions are selected for the fuzzy
modelling although other types may also apply. Some
examples of the rules developed are:
µ Ri (a , b, c ) = min [µ A (a ), µ B (b ), µ c (c )] Eq. 9
If a is Aai AND b is Bi THEN ci = f i (a, b)
Defuzzification: A centroid method is applied to obtain
the crisp value for transformer assessment level. The
centroid or center of gravity method finds the balance
point of the solution (fuzzy region) by calculating the
weighted mean of the fuzzy region. Arithmetically, for
fuzzy solution region A , this is given as [13, 14, 19,
24]:
n
∑ d µ (d )
i A i
ℜ→ i =0
n
Eq. 10
∑ µ A (d i )
i =0
Where d is the ith domain value and µ (d ) is the
truth membership value for that domain point.
Diagnostic facts are represented by a large number of
fuzzy rules for an accurate evaluation to reach a definite
outcome in term of criticality, rate of ageing and
remnant life. The main target of the model is divided
into several sub targets using fuzzification of all the
elements. The model is based on the optimization
process which includes the combined effect of each sub
problem as a multistage decision process (multi- criteria
analysis) [13, 14, 23].
3.1.3. TRANSFORMER REMNANT LIFE M APPING
To map the transformer remnant life, a fuzzy logic
modelling is carried out with furanic compound and
moisture (RVM analysis) as input variables, Figure 1 ,
3
Figure 2 and Figure 3 . Membership functions for furan are
considered on the scale 0 to 4 (mg/L) and for moisture
from 0 to 10 (%), based on the various transformers test
data and specified standards.
Figure 1: Fuzzy Model - Remnant Life Mapping
Figure 2: Input Variable MF - Furan (mg/L)
Figure 3: Input Variable MF - Moisture (%)
The model’s output variable membership functions are
based on the various transformers test data
interpretations and specified standards, measured on the
scale from 50 to 0 (new to significantly aged), Figure 4 .
Figure 4: Output Variable MF - Remnant Life
Fuzzy rules are developed using transformer diagnostics
and test data interpretation knowledge . The remnant life
mapping model is tested with furan (3mg/L) and
moisture (3%) to map the transformer remnant life. The
model outcome for the defined inputs concludes low
residual life, which is approximately 6.376 years on the
scale from 50 to 0, Figure 1.The transformer remnant life
can be mapped directly using the model’s surface graph
(outcome) for the given inputs, Figure 5 .
Figure 5: Remnant Life Mapping Model Outcome
3.1.4. TRANSFORMER EXPECTED REMNANT LIFE
Residual life of identical transformers, with same period
of service, may vary because of its insulation behaviour
due to various reasons. Transformer rate of ageing has
significant impact on its remnant life estimation. To
predict the expected remnant life, it is vital to integrate
the indicators responsible for the rate of ageing with
remnant life mapping model, Figure 7. The output
variable membership functions are based on the
“expected remnant life” and “rat e of ageing” of the
transformer and measured on the scale from 50 to 0 (new
to significantly aged), Figure 6. Fuzzy rules are
developed using transformer diagnostics and test data
interpretation experience and know ledge. The expected
remnant life using fuzzy modelling can be better
predicted by a integrating the related indicis [2].
Figure 6: Output Variable MF - Transformer Expected
Remnant Life
The model is tested to determine the transformer
expected remnant life with the inputs such as a , b , c ,
d , e , f , g , h , i , j , k , l, m , n, o , p , q, r ,
s , u , v , and w depending upon the respective
criticalities. The model outcome for the defined inputs
exhibits end of life criteria, which is 2.15 years where as
the instantaneous age was concluded as 6.376 years
regardless of its calendar age, Figure 7.
The expected remnant life estimation assessment
suggests immediate removal of transformer for detail
investigat ions and asset management decision
accordingly. For the inputs such as, rate of ageing and
remnant life mapping the transformer expected remnant
life estimation can be judged directly using the model’s
surface graph (outcome), Figure 8.
4
 Figure 7: Fuzzy Model - Transformer Expected Remnant Life

It also benefit the end user to have power supply

without interruption, in particular the industrial sector.
It reduces the risks to human kind and environment.
The power transformer remnant life estimation model
further facilitates to achieve the followings:

• Maximum practicable operating efficiency.

• Premature failures minimization.
• Timely relocation/ replacement flexible decision.
• Life extension with enhanced CBM strategies.
• System performance improvement with enhanced
reliability/ and availability of the asset.
• Minimization of long-term operational cost.
• Elimination of unplanned maintenance cost.
• Development of cost effective maintenance
Figure 8: Expected Remnant Life Model Outcome strategies.
• Competitive rates on spare parts procurement.
4. CONCLUSIONS • Low insurance premiums.

The outcome benefits the power utilities in terms of

increased reliability and cost savings for longer period.
5
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