Training Course 4 Statistics & Probability

Table of Content

Lessons

1. Statistics- What is it?

2. Frequency Distribution and Histogram
3. Vertical Bar Graphs
4. Line Graph (Polygraph)
5. Section 5 Pictograph
6. Circle Graph (Pie Chart)
7. Mean, Medium and Mode
8. Averages from Frequency Tables
9. Probability Definitions
10. Probability-Calculations
11. Probability – Tree Diagrams
Activities

1. Using Excel to draw Statistical Graphs 3-D Solids

2. False Advertising – Abusing Statistics Polygons Scavenger Hunt
3. Culminating Activity
4. Student Surveys on Safe Schools - Research Project
5. What is your heart rates during various activities?
6. Burger King and Star Wars Rogue One Micro Machines
Lesson 1 Statistics - What is it?

Statistics is a branch of mathematics which involves;

1. Gathering data or information

2. Organizing data
3. Analyzing data
4. Interpreting data, making inferences, predictions, and decisions about the data.

To work with statistics, we need to learn some vocabularies, let us use an example to illustrate
some important words:

If you ask each high student in Guyana to answer a question such as “How old are you?” then we
refer to all of the students as the population. Since it is very hard to this we make a selection of
students instead. We refer to the group of students selected as the sample. The students should
be chosen randomly (no particular order, e.g. every 10th student you see). So we have a random
sample.

To gather data or information, we may use a variety of methods: surveys, cell phone, Facebook,
personal interviews, and so on.

Once the data has been gathered we then organize it in some form (Sections # 2, 3), using
graphs, charts, and so on. Then we conduct a data analysis to answer questions, for example
most (55%) of the students in high school are between the ages of 12 to 17. Using these results,
we can make inferences, predictions and decisions. The inference drawn from the data
analysis in this example is that most of the students in high school are between the ages of 12 –
17. The principal and staff can make a decision that the school should organize more extra-
curricular activities in the schools so that they can socialize and learn something new.

Exercise:

1. The possible disadvantages of certain methods of gathering data are listed below.
A. Time Consuming
B. High Cost
C. Limited return on information
D. Difficult to contact all the people
E. Limited choice of responses
F. Difficult to interpret question
From the above list, select the one major disadvantage that may be related to each of
the following data gathering techniques: (use letter in your answers)

(a) A telephone survey across Guyana to find the number of people planning to watch
the 2018 World Cup Games.
 (b) A personal interview of each student at your school to find out what kinds of food
are preferred for lunch.
(c) A questionnaire mailed to the people of several regions in Guyana to obtain an
opinion of the current Prime Minister’s performance.

2. To predict the outcome of the Guyanese Team at the Tokyo Olympic Games 2020, which
of the following methods would most likely provide data on which to base a decision:

(a) An interview with members of the different teams

(b) 100 people randomly surveyed in Tokyo
(c) 100 phone calls randomly across Guyana
(d) 20 sport news reporters interviewed at random

3. For each of the following, indicate if you would use a sample (S) or the population (P) to
make a decision:

(a) Testing the quality of a soft drink

(b) Testing a shipment of car tires
(c) Determine the strength of Wi-Fi signals at your school
 Lesson 2 Frequency Distribution and Histogram

A medical student doing research on heart disease took the pulses (heart beats per minute) of 33
people and recorded them as below. These numbers are called data:

75 72 31 67 80 77 73 67 86 71 75 72 94 71 70
69 93 64 80 54 75 69 74 73 89 78 6 81 59 80
74 76 77 70 79 58 71 82 70 63 77 70 77 81 71
70 78 63 74 75 56 83 69 77 52 73 68 84 53 86
78 57 78 66 75 64 80 73 88 62 81 86 61 73 81
75 65 74 75 65 84 70 73

How can she organize the data so that he can gain some information from them? The steps are:

1. Find the range. The range describes the spread of the data. It is the difference between
the highest and lowest data value in a set of numbers. In this case, it is: 94 – 52 = 42.
2. Choose a class interval. You can choose any convenient class interval you like, but not
too large and avoid odd numbers. All classes must have the same class interval.
She chose a class interval of 4 in her frequency distribution table, i.e. 52 - 55, 56 - 59, etc.

If the class interval were 8, the classes would have been 52 – 59, 60 - 67, 63 – 75.

3. Find the number of classes. The number of classes depends on your class interval.
Number of classes = range/class interval.
In this case, her number of classes = 42/4 = 10.5, use the next whole number or 11.

4. Go through the data of pulse rates and counted how many people had a pulse rate which
fell in the first class, in the second class, and on, this is called a tally:
Frequency Table:
Class Tally Frequency
52-55 // 2
56-59 //// 5
60-63 /// 3
64-67 //// /// 8
68-71 //// //// //// 15
72-75 //// //// //// //// 19
76-79 //// //// / 11
80-83 //// //// 10
84-87 //// 5
88-91 /// 3
92-95 // 2
Her data are now shown above in a frequency table or frequency distribution.

After making a frequency distribution she can represent this data visually using a histogram.
A histogram is an accurate graphical representation of the frequency distribution of numerical
data. It is a kind of bar graph.

Compare this histogram with the original list of pulse rates. Which one gives you clear
information? Now she can conduct the data analysis and make an inference. A logical
inference in this case is: most people in this sample have a pulse rate of 69-79 bpm.

Questions:

1. The control department of a light bulb manufacturer took a sample of 40 bulbs and tests
them for length of life. The following figures represent the life span (in hours) of the
bulbs:
950 910 870 820 980 870 940 960
970 900 960 920 890 840 870 880
930 900 840 930 920 800 850 810
880 990 930 810 920 900 880 870
830 920 890 840 910 880 890 920

a. State the longest life and the shortest life light bulbs.
b. Organize the above data into a frequency table using a class interval of 8.
c. Draw the histogram
d. What inference can be drawn from the data analysis?
2. The percentages that a set of 48 Grade 8 students received on a Math test are:
71 89 79 71 78 68 40 70 73 35 42 79
95 85 92 78 57 55 89 64 68 77 93 89
59 72 66 85 48 73 57 63 80 31 97 78
68 75 71 56 43 88 82 41 66 60 86 87

(a) What is the lowest grade? What is the highest grade?

(b) What is the range of grades?
(c) Organize the above data into a frequency distribution table.
(d) Construct a histogram.
(e) What inference can be drawn from the data analysis?

3. The number of points scored by a school basketball team during its games in the season
was recorded as follows:
89 87 87 66 46 48 67 76 50 68
70 56 73 96 58 109 59 75 74 42
62 79 40 44 60 63 60 92

(a) Organized the above data into a frequency table using suitable class interval.
(b) Draw the histogram.
(c) What inference can be drawn from the data analysis?

4. The best times for men’s 100 m races are list below:

9.58 9.63 9.78 9.77 9.75 9.77 9.77 9.76 9.69 9.74
9.76 9.72 9.76 9.69 9.77 9.74 9.75 9.77 9.78 9.76
9.78 9.78 9.75 9.72 9.78 9.69 9.71 9.75 9.77 9.77

(a) Organized the above data into a frequency table using suitable class interval.
(b) Draw the histogram.
(c) What inference can be drawn from the data analysis?
Lesson 3: Vertical Bar Graphs

Graphs are used to act as a visual showplace for statistical data so that you can obtain needed
information at a glance. Histogram was studied in the previous section. There are many other
types of graphs in Statistics: vertical bar graph, horizontal bar graph, comparison bar graph,
pictograph, line graph and so on. We will study the first three statistical graphs.

A vertical bar graph is one that represents certain data with bars that rise vertically from the x-
axis or horizontal axis.

Example 1: The data below indicate the total number of tourists to Guyana for the period 2008-
2016. Data was obtained from Trading Economics.

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Tourist 130 141.3 151.9 156.9 176.6 157.8 205.8 206.8 235.3
Arrivals
(1000s)
Data from: https://tradingeconomics.com/guyana/tourist-arrivals

What inferences can we make from this bar graph? Why was there a sudden increase in 2014?

Example 2: The data below indicate the highest and lowest boy temperature at different ages. Construct
a comparison bar graph. What inferences can we make from this bar graph?

0-2 yr 3-10 yr 11-65 yr >65 yr

Lowest body 97.5 97 96.6 96.4
temperature ( F)
Highest body 100.4 100 99.7 99.5
temperature (F)
Data from: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/qodome/ido-smart-thermometer
Inference: There is little difference between the body temperatures for the four age groups. Young
infants tend to have higher body temperatures than adults and seniors when they get sick.

Exercise: Draw comparison bar graph for each of the three sets of data below. What inferences can you
make in each? (a) Average low-hi temperature in Georgetown; (b) Male and Female population
comparison for ages from 0 to 95 at 5 years intervals in Guyana, i.e. 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, .. 95 (c) Compare
religions in Guyana

Average low-hi temperature in Georgetown, Guyana in (Celsius degree)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
24 24 24 25 25 24 24 24 25 25 24 24
29 29 29 30 30 29 30 30 31 31 30 29

Religion Guyana Jamaica

Hindu 28.4% 0.5%
Seven-day Adventist 5% 12%
Muslim 7.2% 0.3%
Pentecostal 16.9% 11%
Anglican 6.9% 2.*%
Roman Catholic 8.1% 4%
Other Christian 20.5% 9.2%
Other 2.8% 23.9%
No religion 4.3% 21.3%
 Lesson 4 Line Graph (Polygraph)

A line graph is a graphical display of information that changes continuously over time. A line graph
may also be referred to as a line chart. Within a line graph, there are points connecting the data to show a
continuous change. The lines in a line graph can descend and ascend based on the data.
A line graph has two axes. The x-axis of a line graph shows the occurrences and the categories being
compared over time, e.g. years, and the y-axis represents the scale, which is a set of numbers that
represents the data and is organized into equal intervals.
Example 1

The table below shows the Guyanese dollar relative to $1.00 US for 90 days in 2017-18. The fluctuation
in the Guyanese dollar can be followed easily on a line graph or polygraph. What inference can we make?

Resource: http://usd.fxexchangerate.com/gyd/
Inference: Guyanese dollar continues to decline against the US dollar in these 90 days in early 2018. The
maximum is 206.50 and the minimum is 201.71, about GYD5 difference on US$1. This is called
devaluation. This makes it more difficult to travel to or study in America.

Exercise
1. The data below is the Average Rainfall (mm) in Georgetown, Guyana. Draw a line graph. What
inferences can we make from this line graph?
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
185 89 111 141 286 328 268 201 98 107 186 262
Data from: http://www.holiday-weather.com/georgetown_guyana/averages/

2. The data below is the estimate of male and female (15-19 year olds) from 2000-2025. Draw two
line graphs, one for each gender. What inferences can we make from this line graph? You may
use Excel for the graphs.
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Women 37,148 41,518 34,101 26,028 24.932
Men 38,346 43,487 36,287 26,644 25,796
3. Statistical Data on the Percentage Level of Poverty in Jamaica from 2006 to 2016 is in the table:
Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Below Poverty 14.3% 9.9% 12.3% 16.5% 19% 20% 19.9% 24.3% 20% 21.2% 19.9%
Level
Construct a line graph showing the fluctuations over the years 2005-2016. What inferences can be made?
Lesson 5 Pictograph

A pictograph is similar to a bar graph in the way it is set up, the difference being that instead of a bar
being used to represent the units, a picture is used. This can be done in the following two methods:

1. The picture can be a certain size, representing so many units, and can be drawn repeatedly if need
be (see two pictographs on top).
2. The picture can vary in size, depending on the number of units (see pictograph on bottom).
Examples

Pictograph on the left shows the number of fruits eaten by students in a primary class. The key says each
fruit was eaten by two students, half of a fruit meant one student.

Pictograph on the right shows favorite zoo animals in a survey taken at the zoo on one day. It appears
that penguins are the most favourite, followed by zebras.

Pictograph on the left shows class size at a

primary school from 2006-2010.

The pictures of pencils vary in size, depending

on the number of students.
Exercise: Part 1: For each pictograph below:

1. Which method is used in the following pictographs?

2. What conclusion can you make by looking at the pictograph?

Part 2: Use assigned method to construct pictographs for the following data. Be sure to have a title and
legend for each.

1. In the school library of a school there are the books on the following subjects in given
numbers: English — 150, History — 500, Math — 200, Science — 350. Method 2.

2. How many of each colour are in a tube 3. How many students in each Grade 8
of Smarties? Use Method 1 class at my school? Use Method 2
Colour Number Class Number
Green 7 8A 37
Orange 8 8B 38
Brown 5 8C 35
Pink 6 8D 46
Yellow 11 8E 21
Red 8 8F 38
Purple 7 8G 17
Black 3 8H 28
Lesson 6 Circle Graph (Pie Chart)

Circle graphs or Pie charts are used to show how a quantity is divided, each division of the circle is
expressed in a percentage % of the circle there is a total of 100% in the circle. They are widely used
today, informative and self-explanatory. Examples below are charts for ethnic composition in
Guyana, religions in Guyana, and typical household water usage in 1999. However, it’s time-
consuming to construct circle graphs or pie charts involving many steps.

Example 1 Favourite types of movies

Step 1: Put your data into a frequency table, then add up all the numbers to get a total:

Step 2: Divide each value by the total and multiply by 100 to get a percent:

Step 3: Figure out how many degrees for each “pie slide” or sector. A full circle has .

Comedy Action Romance Drama SciFi TOTAL

Frequency 4 5 6 1 4 20
Percent 4/20 x 100% 5/20 x 100% 6/20 x 100% 1/20 x 100% 4/20 x 100%
100%
= 20% = 25% = 30% = 5% = 20%
Degrees 4/20 × 360° 5/20 × 360° 6/20 × 360° 1/20 × 360° 4/20 × 360°
360°
= 72° = 90° = 108° = 18° = 72°

Step 5 Draw a circle and use your protractor to measure the degrees of each sector or pie. For example,
this sector is for Comedy (20%). See three examples above.

Step 6 Continue with other sectors. Be sure to label the sector, e.g. Comedy (20%), and a title on top.
Exercise

1. Construct circle graph/pie chart for the following three sets of data

Country 2011 CO2 Emissions Air Pollutants Produced by Industry 2013

(Million Metric Tons) Pollutants 2013
China 8715
US 5491 Particulate Matter 17,950
Russia 1788 Sulphur Oxide 68,741
India 1725 Nitrogen Oxides 42,029
Japan 1181
Lead 0.24
Germany 748
Rest of the World 13100 Volatile Organic Compounds 2,745
Source : National Environment and Planning Agency

World population by Continent

Continent Percent
Asia 60%
Africa 16%
Europe 10%
Latin America/Caribbean 8.5%
Oceania 0.5%
North America 5%

2. Calculate the percent of export revenue for each of the five industries in the circle graph above.
Lesson 7 Mean, Medium and Mode

In general, an average is one number used to represent a set of numbers, so when some of the
numbers are not known, the average should give us an idea of a typical number in the set.
Therefore averages are called measures of central tendency. There are 3 measures of central
tendency.

Mean = Average
Is the sum of the numbers in the data set divided by how many numbers are in the dataset.

Step 1 Step 2

Add the numbers Divide by the # of

numbers in the dataset

Addthe mean of 2, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 4
Example: Find
Step 1: 2 + 3 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 4 = 14
Step 2: 14 ÷ 8 = 1.75 Answer: The mean is 1.75

Median = Middle
Is the middle number in the data set arranged in order by value?
If there are 2 middle numbers, find the average of the 2 middle numbers and that will be the median.

Step 1 Step 2

Arrange the numbers Median is the middle number

in order by value Or average of 2 middle numbers

Example: Find the median of 9, 3, 15, 11, 8, 5, 5

Add
Step 1: Order the numbers: 3, 5, 5, 8, 9, 11, 15
Step 2: The middle number is 8. Answer: The median is 8

Example: Find the median of 2, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 4

Step 1: Order the numbers: 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4
Step 2: There are two middle numbers. 1 + 2 = 3 and 3 ÷ 2 = 1.5 Answer: The median is 1.5

Mode = Most
It is the number that occurs the most often in a dataset.

Example: 2, 3, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 4 Answer: The mode is 1

Application of Mean, Median and Mode – Which one should we use?

John and Mary are playing golf. Although they are about the same at driving the ball onto the
green, John is better at putting. On the 8th hole, however, Mary makes a 5 and John get stuck in a
sand trap. By the time he finally gets out of it and makes it to the hole, John has a 15 and he is so
mad at himself. Mary won because her total score is lower.

Here are the scores on the 9 holes:

Hole 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total
John 4 3 6 4 3 3 4 3 15 45
Mary 6 4 7 5 5 3 5 4 5 44

Who is the better golfer on the average?

Mary has figured out their averages by dividing each score by the number of holes, getting:

Mary’s Average John’s Average

44/9=4.9 45/9=5

John looks this over and wonders how Mary’s average can be less than his, since he either beat
or tied Mary on every hole except one. John doesn’t think that Mary’s method of working out
averages gives a true picture of the situation, so he tries a different method. He starts by making
a frequency distribution of the scores that he and Mary go on each hole.

Mary’s Score Tally John’s Score Tally

3 / 3 ////
4 // 4 ///
5 //// 6 /
6 / 15 /
7 /

After studying these for a while, John tells Mary: Your average score is 5, since you made a 5 on
more holes than any other number. My average score is 3 as you can easily see. Who do we
think is right: John or Mary?

The average Mary figured is the mean. It is the one most people use to find averages.

Let’s compare all three methods of finding averages:

Average Mary John

Mean 4.9 5
Mode 5 3
Median 5 4
If we look at the original list of scores, it seems that the mean is not very appropriate here. John
plays golf better than Mary most of the time. Median and mode seem more appropriate.
Example: Suppose in a class of 12 students, marks out of 10 are given as follows:

1, 9, 7, 10, 4, 2, 9, 2, 9, 9, 1, 9

Solution:

The mean is

To find the mode, we notice that 9 occurs 5 times, so mode = 9

To find the median, we must put the marks in order

1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 5, 9, 9, 9, 9, 9, 10

Because there is an even number of marks, there is no middle number, so we take the mean of
the two middle marks:

Resource: YouTube Video “Mean Median and Mode Song” and/or “The Mean, Median and
Mode Toads”

Exercise
1. Find the mean, median and mode for the following sets of numbers:
i. 20 15 6 5 2 9 10 2 12
ii. 84 65 54 35 95 65 12 57 41 40 68
iii. 25 94 47 82 19 36 47
iv. 72 73 73 73 77 79 84 85 85 89

2. Chickens are being purchased for a chain of restaurants. A sample of ten chickens is
taken from an order of 1000. The mass of each, in grams was noted as follows:
a. 720, 780, 660, 690, 780, 720, 840, 750, 630, 720.
b. What is the mean mass for the (i) 10 chickens, (ii) 1000 chickens?
3. A restaurant manager recorded the number of fish dinners served on ten consecutive
Fridays: 40, 51, 47, 54, 36, 40, 45, 49, 56, 51
a. Calculate the mean, median, mode of fish dinners
b. Which number would you use in ordering stock for Friday dinners? Why?
4. An average can sometimes give a very misleading idea of numbers it is supposed to
represent. Here is a good example: the Mighty Mousetrap Company is owned by two
partners and has 13 employees. The partners pay themselves monthly salaries of
US15,000 each, and of the 13 employees, 3 earn $6,000 each, 4 earn $4,500 and 6 earn
$4000. Which of the three averages would you use? Explain.
Lesson 8 Averages from Frequency Tables
The distribution of the travel times (in minutes) for 25 students from home to school is shown in the
frequency table below, find the mean time.
Travel Times (minutes) Number of Students
0 - 10 3
10 - 20 10
20 - 30 6
30 - 40 4
40 - 50 2

Step 1: Determine the midpoint for each interval. See column in the middle.
Step 2: Multiply each midpoint by the frequency for the class.
Step 3: Add the results from Step 2 and divide the sum by 25.
Travel Times Mid-point of interval Number of Students Mid-point x No of students
0 - 10 5 3 (5)(3) = 15
10 - 20 15 10 15(10) = 150
20 - 30 25 6 25(6) = 150
30 - 40 35 4 35(4) = 140
40 - 50 45 2 45(2) = 90
Sum = 545
Mean = Sum/25 = 21.8

Answer: Each student spends a mean time of 21.8 minutes from home to school.

Exercise

1. Calculate the mean number of hours per week spent by each student texting messages on a cell
phone. Use the frequency table on the left.

2. Calculate the mean number of hours per week spent by each student texting messages on a cell
phone. Use the frequency table on the right.

Time Per Week Number of Pulse Rate Frequency

(Hours) Students 52-55 2
56-59 5
0-5 8 60-63 3
64-67 8
5 -10 11 68-71 15
72-75 19
10 - 15 15 76-79 11
80-83 10
15 - 20 12 84-87 5
88-91 3
20 - 25 9 92-95 2
25 - 30 5
Lesson 9 Cumulative Frequency

The cumulative frequency of a set of data is the sum of the frequencies of data at or below a given value.
It is also called a running total. A frequency table can be converted to a cumulative frequency table by
adding each frequency to the total of its predecessors.

A cumulative frequency table can be used to answer the following questions:

1. How many items have a value of no more than or greater than a given amount?
2. How many items have a value of more than a given amount?

Example 2 The set of data below shows the ages of participants in a certain summer camp.
(a) Construct a cumulative frequency table.
(b) Draw a frequency distribution and a cumulative frequency graph.

Age 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Frequency 5 10 27 18 6 16 38 9

Solution (a) Cumulative frequency table

Age ≤10 ≤ 11 ≤ 12 ≤ 13 ≤ 14 ≤ 15 ≤ 16 ≤ 17
Frequency 5 15 42 60 66 82 120 129
(b)Frequency distribution graph and cumulative frequency graph.
(c) Using the cumulative frequency graph, find (a) No of campers 13 and under (b) probably of finding a
camper that is older than 16.

Frequency distribution Graph

40
Frequency

30
20
10
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Ages
Lesson 9 Probability Definitions

Definition Examples
What is an An experiment is an Throwing a die
Experiment? observation or
measurements that
can be repeated again
and again over a
period of time

What is an An outcome is any Example throwing

outcome? one of the possible a one
results of the
experiment.

What is a A sample space is a {1,2,3,4,5,6}

sample space? collection of all the
outcomes of an
experiment

What is an event An event is a set of Getting a Head

and when does related outcomes or (Rice Harvest) in a
it occur? one of the related toss of a $1 coin
outcomes in an
experiment, for
example, getting a
Head in a toss of
coin.
What is a zero- The probability Getting a Tail in a
probability that an event will toss of coin with
events? occur is expressed as Heads on both
a number between 0 sides P(Tail) = 0
and 1. The closer the
probability is to 1, the
event will more than
likely occur and vice-
versa. Zero-
probability events are
events that will
“never happen”.
What does the Probability one Getting a Head in
probability of 1 means the event will a toss of coin with
mean? "certainly happen". Heads on both
sides P(Head) = 1
Example 1: A coin is tossed and the face (Rice harvest) is record. In this example, explain the meaning of
experiment outcome, sample space, event, and occurrence of an event.

Solution: The experiment is tossing the coin and record results. The two possible outcomes are heads and
tails.

• One sample space is {H, T}

• One event is {H}; Another event is {T}
• If any toss results in a head, the event {H} occurs
• Since the result is a head, in the event {T} does not occur

In this example, ways of tossing a head = 1

Possible outcomes (head or tail) = 2

Probability of getting a head = P (H) =

Exercise

1. The question “When your birthday is?” (Day and month) is asked and the result recorded.
(a) For this case, explain the meaning of experiment, outcome, sample space, event, occurrence
of an event, probability of an event.
(b) Find the probability of being born on April 19. (not a leap year)
(c) Find the probability of being born in December.

2. A die (singular for dice) is rolled and the result recorded. Describe the sample space and find:
(a) P (5) (Probability of obtaining a 5)
(b) P (an odd number)
(c) P (an even number)
(d) What is the sum of the probabilities of the answers to parts (d) and (e). Explain the result.
(e) P (a number less than 5)
(f) P (a number greater than or equal to 5)
(g) What is the sum of the probabilities of the answers to parts (d) and (e). Explain the result.
(h) P (8). What does the probability tell you?
(i) P (1 or 2 or 5 or 6).
(j) P (3 or 4).
(k) Compare the probabilities of the answers to parts (i) and (j). Explain the result.
(l) P (1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6). What does the probability tell you?
Example 1: A coin is toss and the face is record. In this example, explain the meaning of experiment
outcome, sample space, event, and occurrence of an event.

Solution: The experiment is tossing the coin and record results. The two possible outcomes are heads and
tails.

• One sample space is {H, T}

• One event is {H}; Another event is {T}
• If any toss results in a head, the event {H} occurs
• Since the result is a head, in the event {T} does not occur

In this example, ways of tossing a head = 1

Possible outcomes (head or tail) = 2

Probability of getting a head = P (H) =

Exercise

1. The question “When your birthday is?” (Day and month) is asked and the result recorded.
(a) For this case, explain the meaning of experiment, outcome, sample space, event, occurrence
of an event, probability of an event.
(b) Find the probability of being born on April 19. (not a leap year)
(c) Find the probability of being born in December.

2. A die (singular for dice) is rolled and the result recorded. Describe the sample space and find:
(a) P (5) (Probability of obtaining a 5)
(b) P (an odd number)
(c) P (an even number)
(d) What is the sum of the probabilities of the answers to parts (d) and (e). Explain the result.
(e) P (a number less than 5)
(f) P (a number greater than or equal to 5)
(g) What is the sum of the probabilities of the answers to parts (d) and (e). Explain the result.
(h) P (8). What does the probability tell you?
(i) P (1 or 2 or 5 or 6).
(j) P (3 or 4).
(k) Compare the probabilities of the answers to parts (i) and (j). Explain the result.
(l) P (1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 or 6). What does the probability tell you?
Lesson 10 Probability-Calculations

Probability of Events occurring in experiments

1. If a coin is tossed, what is the probability that it will land heads?

2. If a pair of dice is thrown, what are the chances of a pair of 4’s turning up?
3. If a card is drawn from a deck, what is the probability it is black? A spade? An ace? An ace of spade?
4. If a domino is drawn from a deck, what is the probability that it’s a double six? A double of any
number including blank? Total is less than 12?
To answer these questions we must first determined the sample space we are dealing with in each case.
When a coin is tossed it will normally land either heads or tails, so the sample space is (H, T). When
throwing a single die the sample space is (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). Then we use the formula from the previous
sheet:

Example 1: If a single card is drawn from a deck, what are the chances it is (a) black? (b) spade? (c) an
Ace?

Solution (a) No. of ways of getting a black card = 26 ; Total possible outcomes = 52

(b) Ways of getting spade = 13 ; Total possible outcomes = 52

(c) Ways of getting Ace = 4; Total possible outcomes = 52

(d) Ways of getting Ace of spade = 1; Total possible outcomes = 52

A few of the Guyanese coins are no longer useful. For examples, $1, $5 and even $10 coins are
no longer useful.

0-0 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-6

1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6
2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6
3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6
4-4 4-5 4-6
5-5 5-6
6-6

Example 2: On the table there are five coins: two $1 coins and three $5 coins

a. What is the probability of picking a $10 coin?

b. What is the probability of randomly selecting a $5 coin?
Solution: a. ways of getting a $10 coin = 0; total possible outcomes = 5

[Rule: Since there are no $10 coins, the event is impossible] Probability p =0
b. ways of getting one $5 coin = 3; Total possible outcomes = 5
=

Exercise

1. In a random draw from a deck of cards what is the probability of drawing (a) red queen? (b) a
face card? (c) 6 of Spade (d) red card?

2. A set of cards numbered 1 to 100 is shuffled and a card drawn at random. What is the probability
that the number on the card (a) is even? (b) ends in a 6? (c) is divisible by 5?

3. A box contains 12 green marbles, 6 red marbles a 2 white marbles. Calculate the probability of
choosing at random (a) a green marble? (b) a red marble (c) a white marble (d) not a green
marble? (e) not a red marble (f) not a white marble.

4. The game of dominoes is believed to have originated in 12th century China. Suppose a domino is
drawn at random, find the probability of getting: (See diagram on top right)

(a) P (0 on at least one side) (e) P (sum of dots is 4 or 5)

(b) P (6 on at least one side) (f) P (sum of dots is 13)
(c) P (sum of dots is 6) (g) P (one dot on at least one side)
(d) P (sum of dots is even) (h) P (sum of dots is a perfect square)

5. In a domino game, one of the indications of a “bad hand” is when you have one of the several
“misses”, e.g. a number of which you don’t have. Of the seven tiles you drawn, what is the
probability a hand of (a) no misses, (b) one miss, (c) two misses, (3) three misses.
 Lesson 11 Probability – Tree Diagrams

To determine the sample space, a tree diagram is sometimes used, using the tree diagram, we can see all
the possible outcomes in an experiment.

Example 1: If three coins are tossed, what is the probability that (a) 2 heads will turn up? (b) 3 tails will
show up?

Solution: First we construct a tree diagram showing all the possible outcomes:

1st toss, Head or Tail (on top of the tree diagram)

2nd toss, Head or Tail (2nd row of the diagram)

3rd toss. Head of Tail (3rd row of the diagram)

Total possible outcomes = 8 (outcomes from the top, HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT)

(a) No of ways of getting 2 heads = 3 {(HHT), (HTH), (THH)}

Therefore P (getting 2 heads) =

(b) No of ways of getting 3 tails = 1 {(TTT)}

Therefore P (getting 3 tails) =

Example 2: If a pair of dice are throw, what is the probability of (a) seven turning up, (b) ten turning up
(c) a pair of the same numbers?

Solution: First we construct a tree diagram showing all the possible outcomes, which is

1 2 3 4 5 6

1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6

(a) No of ways of getting a sum of seven = 6 {(1,6) (2,5) (3,4) (4,3) (5,2) (6,1)}
So P (sum of 7)

(b) No of ways of getting a sum of ten = 3 {(4, 6), (5, 5), (6, 4)}
So P (sum of 10) =

(c) Ways of getting a pair of the same numbers = 6 {(1,1), (2,2) (3,3) (4,4) (5,5) (6,6)}

So P (getting the same number) =

Exercise: Use the tree diagrams to do the following questions:

1. Three coins are thrown on a table. What is the probability of getting (a) three tails? (b) one head
and two tails? (c) two tails?

2. Two coins are tossed on a table, what is the probability of (a) two heads? (b) one head and one
tail? (c) two heads and one tail?

3. If a pair of dice are thrown, what is the probability of throwing

(a) two 5’s in a row?

(b) What is the probability of getting a total of 8?

(c) What is the probability of getting a total of 8 or greater?

Activity 1: Using Excel to draw Statistical Graphs

A survey of students' favorite after-school activities was conducted at a school. The frequency
table below shows the results of this survey. Construct vertical and horizontal bar graphs using
Microsoft Excel.
Number of
Activity
Students
Play Sports 45
Talk on Phone 53
Visit With Friends 99
Earn Money 44
Chat Online 66
School Clubs 22
Watch TV 37
Listen to Music 56

Instructions:
1. Type or cut and paste the above frequency table on a new Worksheet in Excel.
2. Hi-lite the table.
3. Select Insert Chart Tools on the top menu.
4. Choose the desired chart (vertical or horizontal bar graphs) and the chart/graph will appear on the
Worksheet.
5. You can learn how to label the graph to make it more informative.
Similarly, double bar graphs can be drawn, for example, we can compare male and female
students on after-school activities using new data in frequency table below. Steps are the same
as above instructions, choose double bar graphs instead, either vertical or horizontal bar graphs.

Activity Male Students Female Students

Play Sports 25 20
Talk on Phone 20 33
Visit With Friends 40 59
Earn Money 20 24
Chat Online 20 46
School Clubs 11 11
Watch TV 10 27
Listen to Music 30 26
Similarly, pie chart/circle graph can be drawn in seconds with Excel. Just hi-lite the table, insert pie chart
on the top menu in Excel, et voila! You can add a title on the top like the pie chart below for pollution
incidents in Guyana in 2015.

Pollution Incidents in Guyana 2015

Categories 2015
Air Pollution 30
Fish Kill 5
Oil Spills 17
Sewage Discharge 9
Sewage Odour 5
Spills 16
Trade Effluent Discharge 3
Improper Waste Disposal 2
Total 87
 Activity 2: False Advertising – Abusing Statistics

A newly start-up Cola Company use the following pictograph to advertise the growth in sales so that more people will buy the Cola.
In your group, use conflict resolution steps to discuss any false impressions/abusing statistics. If so, decide on how would you
change the graphs to correct any false impressions?

The increase in production by Cola Company

a.
No. of Bottles
b.
15,000

10,000

5000

2014 2015 2016 2017

Group work in groups of 4:

• One pictograph graph per group and ask each group to decide their solution using conflict resolution steps (see
below). One group member acts as mediator.
• Each group must submit their solution with reasons, only one copy, same grade for the group.

Conflict Resolution Steps

1. Conflict resolution is a peaceful way of trying to solve a conflict with resolution.

2. Both sides in the conflict explain what they feel happened to cause the conflict. One at a time.

3. The person who listens to both sides is called the mediator.

4. After both sides state what they feel happened to cause the conflict, they discuss ways to solve the conflict.

5. They try to come up with a “resolution” that both sides agree to.

6. Communication throughout the entire conflict resolution process is always exchanged in a calm manner without
anger. Everyone attempts to use good listening.

7. If voices get too loud or it appears that someone is angry, the mediator’s role is to address this and have the
people treat each other with respect.

8. After various suggestions are shared, discussion centers on the best solution.
Activity 3 Culminating Activity

Work in Teams of three

This culminating activity will require your team of three to use the contents learned in this unit to analyze the following data on
mean sunshine hours in MoBay, Jamaica. Your team will write a 2-page pamphlet for visitors to Jamaica about its climate and
things that they can do. Your pamphlet must include appropriate charts and pictures to support your suggestions for tourists. See
brochure rubric for assessment of the activity.

Mean Sunshine Hours Donald Sangster International Airport (2002-2013)

Month 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jan 7.8 6.1 8.0 7.4 8.5 8.0 8.4 8.1 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.6

Feb 9.1 8.7 8.9 9.5 6.9 7.8 8.2 8.4 7.8 9.1 9.0 8.9

Mar 9.3 8.8 8.9 8.2 9.4 8.1 8.3 8.6 6.3 9.8 9.5 8.2

April 10.4 8.7 9.9 8.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 8.6 9.2 9.7 8.3 9.3

May 6.8 8.8 7.5 8.2 10.4 6.3 8.2 8.8 7.9 9.1 8.1 9.6

June 8.3 8.7 9.3 7.5 7.7 8.7 8.8 7.6 8.4 7.3 9.0 8.6

July 9.0 8.9 8.8 7.9 8.3 9.5 8.5 9.5 7.1 7.7 9.0 10.8

Aug 7.8 8.5 9.0 7.3 8.4 7.2 8.8 8.6 7.3 9.8 8.7 7.8

Sept 5.3 7.8 6.7 7.7 7.3 8.0 7.9 8.1 6.4 8.3 8.9 6.2

Oct 8.0 8.1 9.2 4.7 7.2 5.6 7.3 6.4 6.9 7.1 8.0 8.3

Nov 8.3 7.9 9.1 8.2 7.0 6.7 6.1 7.4 7.1 9.0 8.2 8.7

Dec 7.8 7.2 7.6 7.2 8.3 8.7 8.3 7.7 6.6 8.6 8.7 8.3

Average 8.2 8.2 8.6 7.7 8.3 7.8 8.2 8.2 7.3 8.6 8.6 8.6

http://statinja.gov.jm/Environmentdata.aspx
 Brochure Rubric

Group members: _________________________________________ (circle your name)

CATEGORY (4) Excellent (3) Good (2) Almost (1) Not Yet
Attractiveness & The brochure has The brochure has The brochure has The brochure's
Organization exceptionally attractive formatting well-organized formatting and
attractive formatting and well-organized information. organization of
(Organization) and well-organized information. material are
information. confusing to the
reader.
Content - Accuracy The brochure has all The brochure has all The brochure has The brochure has
of the required of the required most of the required little of the required
(Ideas) information (see information (see information (see information (see
checklist) and some checklist). checklist). checklist).
additional
information
Mathematics – Statistics All Statistics is done Most Statistics is Some Statistics is Most of the Statistics
according to the 3 done according to the done according to the is not done according
As. 3 As. 3 As. to the 3 As.
(Accuracy, Attractive and
Appropriate 3As)
Graphics/Pictures The graphics go well The graphics go well The graphics go well The graphics do not
with the text and with the text, but with the text, but go with the
there is a good mix there are so many there are too few. accompanying text
of text and graphics. that they distract or appear to be
from the text. randomly chosen.
Group cooperation Assigns a clearly Does an equal share Does almost as much Does less work than
defined role. Group of work. Assigns work as others. other group
members perform roles, but roles are Assigns roles, but members. No effort
roles effectively. not clearly defined or roles are not adhered made to assign roles
consistently adhered to to group members.
to.
Activity 4 What is your heart rates during various activities?

Class discussion: About heart rates and pulse. Ask students to share what they already know about each. Students might
also offer ideas about what kinds of activities affect the heart rate.

Activity: Work in pairs to find your heart rates during various activities. Use your cell phone for timer.

Ask your partner to check your heartbeat by pressing your fingers as shown below to find your pulse. The pulse is the
throbbing, or beating, felt when blood is pumped by the heart. Once you can feel the pulse, count how many times your
partner’s heart beats in 10 seconds and complete the form below individually.

Name of Student: _______________________

1. Predicting my heart rates:

a. When I am at rest _______________________________________________________
b. Will my beats go fastest after walking, running or stepping up and down? Why?
______________________________________________________________________
c. When I am at rest again right after exercise ________________________________________
2. Measuring my heart rates for various activities:

Beats in 10 seconds Multiply by 6 Heart Rate Beats/minute

Sitting or at rest

Walking

Running

Stepping up and down stairs

Sitting or at rest after exercise

https://illuminations.nctm.org/uploadedFiles/Content/Lessons/Resources/3-5/BeatHeart-AS-EveryBeat.pdf
Activity 5 Burger King and Star Wars Rogue One Micro Machines

Work in teams of four on this activity.

Many companies are putting toys in their products to try to get customers to buy more. Many children and young
people like Star Wars figurines. Burger King thinks this might be a good way to get customers to buy more combos.
They will make twelve different Star War micro machines and give one in a sealed box of every combo purchased at
J1000 each (see above flyer). That way kids will want their parents to keep buying combos until they have all twelve
different micro machines. Mrs. King, the President of Burger King, asks your team of four to help design this sales plan.
She knows that it will cost more to give away the micro machines for each J1000 purchase. She wants to be sure that
families will really buy more combos to get a set of micro machines. Mrs. King asks you to find the answers to these
two questions in your plan:
1. What is the best way to put micro machines in the boxes to make families want to buy more?
2. How many boxes will a family buy to be sure they collect all 6 toys?
You should tell Mrs. King about what your team found out by designing and doing an experiment to find out whether or
not you think your plan will make Burger King more popular with kids and young people.
Your team will then write a letter to Mrs. King telling her what your proposed plan, experiment, results and solutions to
these two questions. Mrs. King also wants to know if your plan will make people buy more combos at $1000 each,
hence more profits. Remember it will cost money to make the Star War Micro Machines and to buy the rights to put
them in Burger King combo boxes. If people don’t buy more boxes, Burger King will lose money.