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Lecture 4: Discrete and

Continuous Probability
Distributions

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Outline
• Define the terms random variable and probability
distribution
• Distinguish
g between a discrete and continuous
probability distributions
• Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of
a discrete probability distribution
• Describe the characteristics and compute probabilities
using the binomial distribution
• Compute probabilities using normal distribution

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Probability Distribution
Probability distribution gives the
entire range of values that can
occur based on an experiment A listing of all possible
outcomes
t off an
experiment and the
corresponding
probability.

Characteristics of a Probability Distribution

1 The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1
1.
inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive events.
3. The list is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities of the various
events is equal to 1.

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Generating a Probability
Distribution
Suppose we are interested in the number of heads
showing face up on the toss of a coin.
This is the experiment. The possible results are:
- Zero head,
- One head.

What is the probability distribution for the number of

heads?

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Generating a Probability
Distribution (cont’d)

P(X)
( )

Probability
1

1/2

0
0 1
Number of Heads

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Random Variables

A numerical value
determined by the
outcome of an A quantity resulting from an
experiment. experiment that, by chance, can
assume different values.

A random variable may be

either discrete or continuous

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Random Variables (cont’d)

• Discrete Random Variable: that can assume only certain

clearlyy separated
p values.

• Continuous Random Variable: can assume one of an

infinitely large number of values, within certain
limitations.

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Types of Probability Distributions

A Discrete A Continuous
distribution is based on distribution usually
random variables results
lt from
f
which can assume only measuring
clearly separated something.
values.

Discrete distributions Continuous distributions

include: include:
o Binomial o Uniform
o Hypergeometric o Normal
o Poisson o Exponential
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Discrete Probability Distribution

The number of students

in a class

The number of cars

The number of children in a
entering a carwash in an
family
hour

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Mean of a Discrete Probability

Distribution
The long-run average value of the
random variable

The central location of the data

  [ xP( x)]
Also referred to as its expected A weighted average
value, E(X), in a probability
distribution
where
o µ represents the mean
o P(x) is the probability of the various
outcomes x.

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Variance of a Discrete
Probability Distribution
Denoted by the Greek
Measures the letter σ2
amount of spread (sigma squared)
(variation) of a
distribution
Standard deviation is the
square root of σ2.

 2  [(x  ) 2 P(x)]

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Example 1
John Ragsdale sells new cars for Pelican Ford. John usually sells
the largest number of cars on Saturday. He has developed the
following probability distribution for the number of cars he expects to
sell on a particular Saturday.

1. What type of distribution is this?

2. On a typical Saturday, how many cars does John expect to sell?
3. What is the variance of the distribution?

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Example 1 (Cont’d)

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Example 1 (Cont’d)

 2
 [( x   ) 2 P ( x )]

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Binomial Probability
Distribution
The data
collected are
An outcome of an the results of
experiment is counts.
classified into
one of two
mutually The probability
exclusive of success
categories, such stays the same
as a success or for
f each h trial.
ti l
failure.

The trials are independent.

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Binomial Probability
Distribution

P( x) n C x x (1   ) n  x

n is the number of trials

x is the number of observed successes
π is the probability of success on each trial

n Cx  n!
x!(n-x)!

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Example 2
The Alabama Department of Labor What is the
reports that 20% of the workforce probability that
in Mobile is unemployed and exactly three are
interviewed 14 workers.
workers unemployed?
p y

P( x  3)14 C 3 (.20) 3 (1  .20)11

 (364)(.0080)(.0859)
 .2501
At least three are
unemployed?
l d?

P ( x  3)14 C3 (.20) 3 (.80)11  ...14 C14 (.20)14 (.80) 0

 .250  .172  ...  .000  .551
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Binomial Probability Distribution

Table

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Example 2 (Cont’d)
The probability at least one is unemployed?

P(x  1)  1 P(0)
 114C0 (.20)0 (1 .20)14
 1 .044 .956

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Mean & Variance of the

Binomial Distribution

  n

 2  n (1  )

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Example 2 Revisited

Recall that π = 0.2 and n = 14

µ = nπ = 14(0.2) = 2.8

σ2 = nπ(1
nπ(1- π ) = (14)(0.2)(0.8) = 2.24

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Continuous Probability
Distributions

• The distance students travel to class

• The time it takes an executive to drive to work
• The length of an afternoon nap
• The length of time of a particular phone call

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The Normal probability distribution

1. It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the
distribution.
2. It is symmetrical
y about the mean.
3. It is asymptotic: The curve gets closer and closer to the X-
axis but never actually touches it.
4. The location of a normal distribution is determined by the
mean, , the dispersion or spread of the distribution is
determined by the standard deviation, σ .
5. The arithmetic mean,, median,, and mode are equal.
q
6. The total area under the curve is 1.00; half the area under the
normal curve is to the right of this center point and the other
half to the left of it.

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The Normal probability distribution

Family of Distributions

Different Means and Equal Means and Different

Standard Deviations Standard Deviations

Different Means and Equal Standard Deviations

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The Standard Normal

Probability Distribution
The standard normal
distribution is a normal
distribution with a mean It is also called the
of 0 and a standard z distribution.
deviation of 1.
A z-value is the distance between a selected value,
designated X, and the population mean µ, divided
by the population standard deviation, σ. The
formula is:

X  
z 

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The Standard Normal

Probability Distribution

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Example 3
The bi-monthly
X   MBA
starting salaries of
z 
recent MBA
graduates follows the

normal distribution
with a mean of
$2,000 and a = $2,200 - $2000
standard deviation of $200
$200. What is the z-
value
l forf a salary
l off = 1.00
1 00
$2,200?

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Example 3 (Cont’d)

What is X  
z 
the z- 
value for $ 1 , 700  $ 2 , 000
$1,700?    1 . 50
$ 200

A z-value of 1 indicates that the value

off $2,200
$2 200 is
i one standard
t d d deviation
d i ti above
b
the mean of $2,000. A z-value of –1.50
indicates that $1,700 is 1.5 standard
deviation below the mean of $2000.
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Areas Under the Normal Curve

About 68 percent of the

area under the normal
curve is within one
standard deviation of
the mean.
µ + 1σ
About 95 percent is within two standard deviations
of the mean
mean.
µ + 2σ
Practically all is within three standard deviations
of the mean.
µ + 3σ
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Example 4
The daily water usage per
person in New Providence,
New Jersey is normally
distributed with a mean of 20
gallons and a standard
deviation of 5 gallons. About
68 percent of those living in
New Providence will use how
many gallons of water?

About 68% of the daily water

usage will lie between 15 and
25 gallons (+ 1σ ).

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RHODE
Example 4 (cont’d)
295 ISLAND
Providence
Scituate
Res What is the probability that a
Warwick person from New Providence
selected at random willill use
se
95
between 20 and 24 gallons per
Newport day?

X   24  20
z    0 . 80
 5

X   20  20
z    0 . 00
 5
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Area under the Normal Curve

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Area under the Normal Curve

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Example 4 (cont’d)

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Example 4 (cont’d)

The area under a normal curve

between a z-value of 0 and a z-
value
l off 0
0.80
80 iis 0
0.2881.
2881

We conclude that 28.81 percent

off the
th residents
id t use bbetween
t 20
and 24 gallons of water per day.

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Example 4 (cont’d)

What percent of the

population use
bet een 18 and 26
between
gallons per day?

X   26  20
z    1 . 20
 5

X   18  20
z     0 . 40
 5
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Example 4 (cont’d)
The area associated
The area associated with a z-value of 1.20
with a z-value of – is
0.40 is
.3849.
.1554.
Adding these areas,
the result is

.5403.

We conclude that 54.03 percent of the

residents use between 18 and 26 gallons of
water per day.
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Example 5
Professor Mann has
determined that the scores
in his statistics course are
approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 72
and a standard deviation of
5. He announces to the
class that the top 15 percent
of the scores will earn an A.
Wh t is
What i the
th lowest
l t score a
student can earn and still
receive an A?

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Example 5 (cont’d)

To begin let X be the score that

separates an A from a B.
B
If 15 percent of the students score
more than X, then 35 percent must
score between the mean of 72 and X.

The z-value associated corresponding to 35

percent is about 1.04.

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Example 5 (cont’d)

We let z equal 1.04 and

solve the standard
normall equation
ti ffor X.
X
The result is the score
that separates students Those with a score of
that earned an A from 77.2 or more earn an
those that earned a B. A.

X  72
1 . 04 
5
X  72  1 . 04 ( 5 )  72  5 . 2  77 . 2
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Practice Problems
• Problem 5 (Page 194)
• Problems 9, 13 (Page 201)
• Problem
P bl 19 (Page
(P 203)
• Problem 10 (Page 233)
• Problem 13 (Page 236)
• Problem 17 (Page 239)
• Problem 23 (Page 241)

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Assignment- 3
• Problem 3 (Page 194)
• Problem 15 (Page 201)
• Problem 23 (Page 204)
• Problem 11 (Page 233)
• Problem 15 (Page 237)
• Problem 19 (Page 239)
• Problem 27 (Page 241)

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