Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Carlyle A. Thayer
Vietnam Communist Party:
State -v- Party Factions
September 23, 2020

We request your assessment of likely leadership changes in Vietnam’s party and

government following the 13th National Congress of the Vietnam Communist Party in
January 2021.
Q1. Do you think Nguyen Phu Trong will stay on in his concurrent positions of party
Secretary General and state President after the 13th national congress of the Vietnam
Communist Party of Vietnam?
ANSWER: Nguyen Phu Trong is very likely to retire from his post as Secretary General
of the Vietnam Communist Party because he can only serve two terms in office as
Secretarty General unless an exemption is granted. Trong is also likely to relinquish his
post as state president, a concurrent position which he assumed in October 2018,
because Vietnam is likely to revert back to the four-pillar leadership model. Trong
would have to receive an exemption from the mandatory retirement age of 65 to stay
on as president; his health status is likely to mitigate against continuing in office.
Q2. Who are likely candidates to replace Secretarty General and President Trong?
ANSWER: The next party Secretary General is likely to be Tran Quoc Vuong who has
served as Trong’s right-hand man in the campaign against corruption. Vuong has
extensive experience within the party and his appointment as Standing Member of
the Central Committee Secretariat in March 2018 gives him the seniority to step up as
party leader. Vuong will be 67 at the 13th national congress and will need an exemption
on the grounds of exceptional service. Vuong is also a native of Thai Binh province in
the north; party leaders traditionally hail from the north.
Q3. What do you think about Trong’s anti-graft campaign? It seems more officials have
been arrested and tried recently. For example, Hanoi People's Committee Chairman
Nguyen Duc Chung, who was seen as a potential leader in the Central Party system,
was arrested. This is a “sensitive time” ahead of the 13th congress. Do you think
Vietnam’s sacking of top Communist Party officials will result in Trong continuing in
his concurrent positions?
ANSWER: The anti-corruption campaign will be Trong’s legacy to the next generation
of party leaders. Vuong, if he becomes next party Secretary General, is expected to
continue the anti-corruption campaign.
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Trong’s anti-corruption campaign was initially viewed as aimed at supporters of

former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. But as the anti-corruption campaign gained
momentum it became evident that it was aimed at high-level officials regardless of
their factional loyalties. Trong will obviously have influence filling the vacancies of
those convicted of corruption.
Q4. The Vietnamese government’s strategy of handling COVID-19 was applauded
broadly. But Trong rarely appeared in public at this time. Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan
Phuc and his Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam were in the front line and got a lot
of media recognition. Do you think there was a division of labour between Trong, on
the one hand, and Phuc and Dam on the other? If there was not a division of labour,
will this be an issue at the 13th National Party Congress?
ANSWER: Combating the coronavirus pandemic was the responsibility of the central
government and its ministries and agencies. That is why PM Phuc and Deputy PM Dam
played such prominent roles.
Trong will retire and become a senior adviser to the Politburo. His age and health,
coupled with party regulations and norms, mitigate him staying on either as party
Secretary General or state president.
The thirteenth plenum of the Central Committee will meet in October and consider
exemptions to the mandatory age requirements. According to rumours, Tran Quoc
Vuong and Nguyen Xuan Phuc will be considered for exemptions. If granted, Vuong
would become the next party leader and Phuc could assume the office of state
president.
There are rumours that the current Politburo is divided between those who hold
senior positions in the party as opposed to those who hold senior posts in the
government. These two factions are vying with each other to appoint their members
to the top leadership positions.
According to these rumours, Nguyen Duc Chung, the chairman of the Hanoi People’s
Committee, was a possible candidate to become the next Minister of Public Security.
However, Chung’s involvement in the Nhat Cuong scandal and other affairs, led to his
suspension from office and in late August his arrest for alleged appropriation of
documents containing state secrets. Since then Phan Dinh Trac, secretary of the party
Central Committee, is rumoured to be a possible ministerial candidate.
Again, according to unconfirmed rumours, there is a proposal to extend Trong’s term
as Secretary General– but not for a full term – to maintain party stability until
squabbling over leadership positions is resolved. Under this scenario, Vuong would be
given an exemption from mandatory retirement and placed in a temporary post until
consensus on the new leadership is reached.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Communist Party: State -v- Party
Factions,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, September 23, 2020. All background
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.