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national values, pursue its national interests and aspirations, in spite of, or, in the absence
of, external or internal threats, real or perceived. Threats to national security may impact
on any aspect of a nation’s life, ranging from its territorial integrity and internal cohesion
to its economy, political structures and institutions, diplomacy, national leadership,
national character, morale and so on. The armed forces of a nation have a vital role to
play in meeting these threats.
• National sovereignty.
• Economic development.
We are one of the oldest civilizations on Earth. Nearly, a sixth of the human race is
Indian. Our country occupies a strategic location on the southern promontory of the Asian
land mass and dominates large expanses of the Indian Ocean including the routes to the
oil rich Gulf region, South East Asia and the Orient. These intrinsic attributes qualify,
indeed demand, that India be a major player at the world stage.
By tradition, India has been a peace-loving and responsible nation. It has abjured
aggression, espoused the doctrine of ‘Ahimsa’ or non-violence, led the non-aligned group
of nations and played a constructive role as a member of the United Nations. This
tradition clearly suggests that India should aspire to become a benign and moral
superpower, rather than one, whose brute strength or wealth alone, confer on it, its place
under the sun. Any examination of our strategic environment must be carried out against
the backdrop of our strategic vision and the long term plans and strategies needed to
realise that vision. By such an examination, we shall be able to predict the strategic
environment of the decades ahead, and arrive at the appropriate force structure and
equipment profile for our Army of the future.
Aim
The aim of this article is to visualise the likely national security environment in 2020
with special reference to the threats and challenges that may confront us at that time, and
arrive at the most appropriate force structure and equipment profile for the Indian Army
of 2020.
While the focus in this article is on the Army, it must not be construed that the Army can
fulfill its missions without the active partnership of the Navy and the Air Force. Joint, or
preferably, integrated tri-service functioning in war and peace will be an essential pre-
requisite for success in all our operations.
With this background, let us examine the geo-strategic environment we might face in
2020.
• The USA has drawn a list of countries, which are ‘of concern’ to it. Of these, it
has dealt with Afghanistan and Iraq. North Korea and Iran await similar treatment
by the superpower. Recently, India has voted in favour of a USA backed
resolution against Iran possibly to secure military materials, nuclear technology
and fuel for civilian purposes. If India resiles from her pro-USA stance in the late
November 2005 voting, the USA may deny its expectations. This would amount
to dictating India’s foreign policy.
• The European Union, despite reservations on the part of some constituents, is for
purposes of realpolitik pro-USA.
• Russia, because of her present economic debility, is supporting the USA or, at
least, not opposing her. It may become more independent in its attitude as its
economy recovers, a process that has already begun.
• Pakistan is a ‘major non-NATO ally’ of the USA and also its frontline state for
the ‘War on Terrorism’. The US has troops and aircraft on Pakistan’s soil. It has
been permitted to set up bases in return for huge subventions and to bail out
Pakistan from the brink of a near-collapse economic situation. In effect, Pakistan
has become a client state of the USA with a less than independent foreign policy.
• These are some of the ramifications of the two events i.e. the Soviet collapse and
the 9/11 event, which shall continue to influence international relations in the next
two decades or more. However, by 2020, some changes would have taken place
with regard to the circumstances of the world’s principal nations. These are
enumerated below :-
• The USA will continue to be the preeminent power. Nevertheless, her ‘edge’ over
China would have reduced to a small margin.
• China would be increasingly inclined to join issue with the USA, taking into
account its envisaged near-superpower status. However, she would not risk her
new found prosperity by being over-assertive with the USA and thus risk war.
• India would have caught up with China and achieved parity with China in many
areas, but not military.
• Pakistan will continue to be the USA’s client state, and in case the latter so
presses, she may even enter into a comprehensive peace agreement with India.
Otherwise, Pakistan would prefer to keep tensions alive with India in order to
extract concessions and benefits from both China and the USA who will want an
economically resurgent India to be reined in.
• The USA’s ‘War on Terrorism’ may prove to be endless as, though the enemy has
been rightly identified, the means being applied are all wrong, indeed, self-
defeating.
• Radical religion will pose problems for the entire world as such. As radicalism
flourishes in less developed countries, by 2020, there would also be a large
number of very poor countries with radicalism well entrenched.
After this brief estimate of the geo-strategic environment in, 2020, let us turn to India’s
internal security environment.
• The political culture in the country has deteriorated over the years.
Communalism, sectarianism, regional parochialism, and sub-nationalism are on
the rise. There is growing criminalisation of politics and a culture of ‘vote banks’
has taken root. Politicisation of the bureaucracy and the police, is well-
established. The Armed Forces have, so far, been able to remain insulated from
politics. Unless these evils are overcome, in 2020, we may have a nation whose
internal security environment will be extremely unhealthy.
• India is not likely to face a military threat from the USA or China because of its
strength, both military and economic.
• A medium level military threat may arise from Pakistan if it fails to make
adequate economic and political progress, or, its leadership passes to radical
elements, or, the country as such, fails and lapses into a state of anarchy.
• Threats of non-state groups armed with WMD could become a reality. They could
be acting on their own initiative or, at the behest of a sponsor nation. This
dimension of WMD would warrant war-like response from us.
Challenges. Apart from military threats, a number of non-military challenges may have
to be faced by our Army in the 2020 time frame. These are as follows: -
• Human resources of appropriate quality may get drawn to the more lucrative
civilian sector. The terms and conditions of service and satisfaction levels of
personnel, must be made more attractive. We should also enroll more short
service personnel than regular cadres to reduce pension liabilities and for better
career management of officers.
• Funds allotted to the Armed Forces should be sustained at a level of three per cent
of GDP for at least 12 to 15 years so as to ensure requisite modernisation and
making good existing shortfalls.
• The IT driven revolution in military affairs requires that the Army ‘manages’
these changes in a systematic and smooth manner. We need to create an integrated
force working in an ‘unified battle space’; seamless communications; extensive
exploitation of IT with excellent ‘cyber security’; top quality space based and
terrestrial surveillance systems and fully operationalised C4I2 systems. This
convergence of various technologies and capabilities will bestow the forces with
much enhanced force-multiplier benefits through Network Centric Warfare
(NCW). We have a long way to go in this regard.
• Internal contingencies of various types could retard or block the Army’s effort to
achieve optimal development in the next 15 years. We need to be prepared with
suitable contingency plans to overcome these ‘drag’ factors.
Extreme Contingencies. In the unlikely event of our prognosis being grossly in error, the
following extreme contingencies could occur :-
• The USA, in a bid to prevent China from superseding her as the superpower,
provokes China to a war with possible use of nuclear weapons.
• China, in frustration with the US-India Axis and to teach India a lesson, may
declare war on us.
• Pakistan may join China in the war against India, or, allow to be used as a proxy
to support China in a ‘holding’ mode.
• The entire border is likely to be activated with shallow thrusts, very heavy
firepower and short span manoeuvres.
• Nuclear weapons may not be used; their use may, however, be threatened.
• Integrated action by all three services will be crucial for the enhancement of our
combat power vis-à-vis the adversary’s.
• Levels of technology employed in the wars will be higher than at present.
• Wars will end in stalemate, with little or no gain, and heavy losses to military as
well as civilian targets.
• War Fighting Capability. If deterrence fails, the Army should be able to fight a
successful war against the enemy, over any terrain, and in conventional as well as
NBC warfare situations.
• Internal Security Management Capability. The Army should be able to deal
with and manage internal security situations of various types like insurgency,
grave law and order situations; and also render aid to civil power, when
requisitioned under various situations including disasters, both natural and man-
made.
• Special Rapid Action forces for offensive or reactive employment at the Corps
level and an Army reserve with adequate airlift resources including for light
tanks/ICVs, needs to be created.
• An amphibious formation suitably grouped with other elements for out of area
operations should be raised.
• As the proxy war and insurgencies abate, the existing RR force may be scaled
down suitably and kept as a reserve force for the same tasks as before.
• Army logistics must be improved by equipping transport units with high mobility
vehicles. Heavy lift helicopter units of the Air Force should be made available to
them on a guaranteed basis for training and operations.
The survivability aspect of personnel needs to be addressed. The soldier must have
lightweight personal protective clothing, excellent night vision device, light and
accurate automatic weapon, ‘walkie-talkie’ type of radio communications and
each section must have a portable anti-aircraft missile firing capability.
We have suggested what could be done to better utilise the presently available forces to
give us the desired capabilities. The question, whether the existing organisation of the
field army into corps, division and brigades should be retained, or a more flexible
organisation of ‘task forces’ directly controlled by a divisional or corps headquarters
should be introduced, needs to be considered by the Army. The organisation so created
should not only be tactically sound, it should also result in substantial savings in
manpower for the Army. Overall, with a switch to the Task Force mode, significant
savings of manpower can accrue even at present.
Equipment Profile
Mechanised Forces. T-90 tanks are likely to be the mainstay for the next two decades
and after mid-life upgradation. The next generation of Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICV)
should be in service by 2010 or so. Part of the ICVs should be wheeled. All mechanised
forces should be NBC proof, better protected, and have greater speed and night fighting
capability.
Artillery. Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) with range in excess of 120
kilometers, SSMs of the Prithvi family with solid propellant, self-propelled guns (both
tracked and wheeled) of the same calibre, some long range rifled mortars and a higher
availability of precision guided munitions form the bulk of the Artillery ‘wish list’ for
2020. Better radio sets, better equipment (both radar and opto-electronic) for target
acquisition and survey, upgraded computers for both gun and observer ends and
advanced systems of fire direction and damage assessment are also needed. The use of
remotely piloted aerial vehicles working in conjunction with long range MLRS will help
shape the future battlefield in depths, hitherto not attained. It will also alter the battlefield
into a non-linear one.
Infantry. The Infantry needs to be upgraded to produce very high volumes of fire using a
range of weapons. Surveillance by radars and other sensors will give the Infantry added
ability to ‘kill’ enemy tanks and other hard targets. The next generation of ATGW should
be in service by 2015, giving the Infantry greater lethality. With improved personal
protective clothing, better night vision capability and the ability to shoot down attacking
aircraft with section level anti aircraft guided missiles, the infantryman of Army 2020
will be a very formidable soldier indeed.
Doctrinal Changes
The following doctrinal changes/refinements are suggested for the Army in 2020: -
• Every war must be won with the fewest casualties and cost to us.
• Attack all the enemy’s vulnerabilities, all at one time if possible, and create an
adverse impact on his will to fight.
Conclusion
There is no mathematical exactness about when events will transpire and whether certain
aspects we have assumed as being constant will actually be so or will alter radically,
putting our prognosis into error. Notwithstanding this, a few points cannot be disputed.
These are: India is progressing rapidly as an economic power; its natural endowments
like strategic location, rich mineral resources and a large, industrious and hardy
population, befit her for great power status. Its Army is large, disciplined, battle tested
and renowned throughout the world for its professional quality. Such an army should be
upgraded further in quality to serve India of 2020, in a befitting manner.