What causes the Earth's climate to change?

We think of the climate we enjoy today as normal, however the Earth’s climates are always changing…

Here are some of the many factors that can cause the Earth's climate to get hotter or colder:

Strength of the sun

Almost all of the energy that affects the climate on the Earth originates from the Sun.

The energy emitted by the sun passes through space until it hits the Earth’s atmosphere.

Only about 40 per cent of the solar energy intercepted at the top of the atmosphere passes through to the
Earth’s surface.

The rest is reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere. The energy output of the sun is not constant, it
varies over time and it has an impact on our climate.

Changes in the Earth’s orbit

The Earth’s orbit around the Sun is an ellipse, not a circle but the ellipse changes shape.

Sometimes it is almost circular and the Earth stays approximately the same distance from the Sun as it
progresses around its orbit.

At other times the ellipse is more pronounced so that the Earth moves closer and further away from the
sun as it orbits.

When the Earth is closer to the sun our climate is warmer.

Meteorite impacts
Nowadays, most of what is on the Earth stays on the Earth; very little material is added by meteorites and
cosmic dust. The only material lost to space is in space hardware.

However, meteorite impacts have contributed to climate change in the geological past; a good example is
the Chicxulub crater, Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.

Large impacts such as Chicxulub can cause a range of effects that include dust and aerosols being
ejected high into the atmosphere that prevent sunlight from getting through. These materials insulate the
Earth from solar radiation and cause global temperatures to fall; the effects can last for a few years
(Kring, 2007).

After the dust and aerosols fall back to Earth, the greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, water and
methane), caused by the interaction of the impactor and its 'target rocks', remain in the atmosphere and
can cause global temperatures to increase; the effects can last decades (Kring, 2007).
Vegetation coverage on the land
On a global scale, patterns of vegetation and climate are closely correlated.

Vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide and this can buffer some of the effects of global warming.

Ocean currents
Ocean currents carry heat around the Earth.

The direction of these currents can shift so that different areas become warmer and cooler.

Oceans store a large amount of heat, so that small changes in ocean currents can have a large effect on
coastal and global climate.

Quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere

These include carbon dioxide, methane and water vapour.

Of these three, water vapour makes the greatest contribution to the greenhouse effect because there is
more of it.

These gases trap solar radiation (electromagnetic radiation emitted by the Sun) in the Earth’s
atmosphere, making the climate warmer.

Are humans definitely causing global

warming?
Just as the world's most respected scientific bodies have confirmed that world is
getting hotter, they have also stated that there is strong evidence that humans are
driving the warming. The 2005 joint statement from the national academies of
Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the UK and
the US said:

"It is likely that most of the warming in recent decades can be attributed to
human activities."

Countless more recent statements and reports from the world's leading scientific
bodies have said the same thing. For example, a 2010 summary of climate
science by the Royal Society stated that:

"There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-
century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil
fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation."
The idea that humans could change the planet's climate may be counter-intuitive,
but the basic science is well understood. Each year, human activity causes billions
of tonnes of greenhouse gases to be released into the atmosphere. As scientists
have known for decades, these gases capture heat that would otherwise escape to
space – the equivalent of wrapping the planet in an invisible blanket.

Of course, the planet's climate has always been in flux thanks to "natural" factors
such as changes in solar or volcanic activity, or cycles relating the Earth's orbit
around the sun. According to the scientific literature, however, the warming
recorded to date matches the pattern of warming we would expect from a build
up of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere – not the warming we would expect from
other possible causes.

Even if scientists did discover another plausible explanation for the warming
observed to date, that would beg a difficult question. As Robert Henson puts it
in The Rough Guide to Climate Change:

"If some newly discovered factor can account for the climate change then why
aren't carbon dioxide and the other greenhouse gases producing the warming
that basic physics tells us they should be?"

The only way to prove with 100% certainty that humans are responsible for global
warming would be to run an experiment with two identical Earths – one with
human influence and one without. That obviously isn't possible, and so most
scientists are careful not to state human influence as an absolute certainty.
Nonetheless, the evidence is now extremely strong.

Effects of Global Warming

Increase in average temperatures and temperature extremes
One of the most immediate and obvious effects of global warming is the increase in
temperatures around the world. The average global temperature has increased by about 1.4
degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) over the past 100 years, according to the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Extreme weather events

Extreme weather is another effect of global warming. While experiencing some of the hottest
summers on record, much of the United States has also been experiencing colder-than-normal
winters.
Ice melt
One of the primary manifestations of climate change so far is melt. North America, Europe and
Asia have all seen a trend toward less snow cover between 1960 and 2015, according to 2016
research published in the journal Current Climate Change Reports. According to the National
Snow and Ice Data Center, there is now 10 percent less permafrost, or permanently frozen
ground, in the Northern Hemisphere than there was in the early 1900s. 

Sea levels and ocean acidification

In general, as ice melts, sea levels rise. In 2014, the World Meteorological Organization
reported that sea-level rise accelerated 0.12 inches (3 millimeters) per year on average
worldwide. This is around double the average annual rise of 0.07 in. (1.6 mm) in the
20th century.

Plants and animals

The effects of global warming on the Earth's ecosystems are expected to be profound
and widespread. Many species of plants and animals are already moving their range
northward or to higher altitudes as a result of warming temperatures, according to a
report from the National Academy of Sciences.

Social effects
As dramatic as the effects of climate change are expected to be on the natural world,
the projected changes to human society may be even more devastating.

Agricultural systems will likely be dealt a crippling blow. Though growing seasons in
some areas will expand, the combined impacts of drought, severe weather, lack of
accumulated snowmelt, greater number and diversity of pests, lower groundwater tables
and a loss of arable land could cause severe crop failures and livestock shortages
worldwide.

Evidence for climate change

 direct surface temperature measurements
 changes in rainfall and weather patterns
 an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events
 loss of Arctic sea ice
 sea level rise
 melting of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and from the NZ Southern
Alps - watch this video: Glaciers don’t lie on the retreat of New Zealand
glaciers [NIWA Taihoro Nukurangi website]
 shifts in the geographic ranges distribution of some plant and animal species
  earlier unfolding of new leaves in spring 
 changes in bird migration patterns.

The impact of humans

Since the industrial revolution, there has been a marked and growing increase in
greenhouse gas producing activities such as industry, agriculture and transportation.
These activities are increasing the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They
are causing the Earth to heat up at a rate unprecedented in recent history. This recent
warming can only be explained by the influence of humans.
Studies of ice cores tell us that greenhouse gases are at their highest levels in at least
800,000 years. 
The worst effects of climate change can be mitigated if greenhouse gas emissions are
reduced to net zero over the course of this century.