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CE22: Comparison of Alternatives 

- Ranking Approach using Equivalent Worth Methods

MA. BRIDA LEA DIOLA


CE 22: Engineering Economics
UP Institute of Civil Engineering
2nd sem AY 19-20
Objectives
 to identify different methodologies of economic
analysis for comparing alternatives
 to compare mutually exclusive alternatives for
an engineering project with equal and different
project lives
 to select the best alternative out of a set of
mutually exclusive alternatives

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 2


Discussion Topics

 Mutually Exclusive (and collectively exhaustive) vs


Independent Alternatives
 Revenue vs Service Projects
 Analysis (or Study) Period vs Service Period
 Comparison of Alternatives:
 Ranking Approach and Incremental Analysis
 PW/FW
 AW/CW
 SPBP and DPBP
 BC Ratio
 IRR
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 3
REVIEW:
Evaluation of a Single Project
 PW(MARR), FW(MARR), AW(MARR)
 a single alternative is considered viable (better than do-nothing) if
EW(MARR) ≥ 0
 PW/FW/AW analyses will always be consistent with each other
 CW(MARR)
 simply the PW of an infinite life alternative
 Payback Period Method
 for two alternatives, one with a shorter PBP is better
 supplementary method, not always consistent with EW methods
 IRR
 a single alternative is considered viable if IRR ≥ MARR
 Consistent with EW method under certain conditions, Recall issues
with multiple roots
 B/C Ratio
 a single alternative is considered viable if B/C ≥ 1.0
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 4
Classification of Alternatives

Mutually Exclusive Independent


 Only one of the  None, one or more
viable projects can than one viable
be selected projects maybe
selected
DOING NOTHING (status quo) is also an
alternative!

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 5


Example

Mutually Exclusive Alternatives Independent Alternatives


 Problem: Public Transportation  Problem: Means of
inside UP Campus Transportation from Melchor
 DN (Jeepneys Ikot/Toki) Hall to UP ICE
 E-jeepneys  Walking

 AGT (Automated Guideway  Ikot/Toki


Transit)  Car
 AGT with Ikot-Toki  AGT
 AGT with E-jeepneys These alternatives can co-exist at the
same time
Only one alternative can be applied.
combination of alternatives is treated as another set
of alternative that needs to be analyzed
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 6
Additional Notes
 For CE 22, alternatives are mutually exclusive, unless stated
otherwise
 Resources are limited (budget, space allocation, etc.) so
normally only one alternative can be pursued → supposedly
the best alternative after comparison analysis
 All alternatives should be collectively exhaustive → All
feasible and possible alternatives should be included in the
list to be analyzed from the start.
 Before doing comparison of alternatives, make sure that all
alternatives have passed project evaluation. No need to
include in the comparison those who have been initially
rejected.

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 7


Engineering Economic Analysis
General Approach
1. Define the set of mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive alternatives

2. Define the planning horizon

3. Develop the cash flow profiles for each alternative

4. Specify the MARR to be used

5. Compare alternatives using a specified measure of


worth

6. Perform supplementary analysis

7. Select preferred alternative


© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 8
Revenue vs Service Projects
Private or Revenue Public or Service (Cost)
(Investment) Projects Projects
 Projects whose revenues  Projects whose revenues do not
depend on the choice of depend on the choice of
alternatives alternatives
 Revenue and cost streams
 Fixed (or constant) revenues for all
vary with the choice of
alternatives. alternatives → can be excluded in
the Cash Flow Diagrams

All alternatives evaluated in an engineering economy study must be of


the same type

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 9


Analysis Period vs Required Service Period
Required Service Period
Analysis Period, T (Useful Life), n
 The time span over which  The time span over which
the economic effects of an the service of an
investment will be equipment (or investment)
evaluated (study period or will be needed.
planning horizon).

Analysis period, denoted by T, may be the same, shorter or longer than the useful
life of a project

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 10


Comparison Approaches

 Ranking (Total Investment) Approach –


usually applied using PW, AW, FW Methods
 Incremental Investment Analysis – usually
applied using B/C ratio and IRR Methods

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 11


Road Map of Making a Choice among Mutually
Exclusive Alternatives

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 12


Comparing Mutually Exclusive
Alternatives

PRINCIPLE: Projects must be


compared over an equal time
span.

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GENERAL CASES

 Case 1: EQUAL – useful life


Alternatives = study period
 Case 2: DIFFERENT – useful life
Alternatives

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 14


RANKING APPROACH:
Case 1: Equal – life Alternatives
What to do: Compute the EW for each project over its life
and select the project with the largest EW (PW, AW, FW)

Principle:
❑Cost projects – minimization of costs
❑Revenue projects – maximization of profit

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 15


Example

❑ Example: Two alternatives with


the following cash flows and i =
10%, n = 3 yrs

❑ Revenue Projects

❑ Select Alternative B, PWB > PWA

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 16


Case 2: Different – life Alternatives
Equal-service
requirement can be
satisfied by :
a. LCM approach
(repeatability)
b. Study period
approach (co-
terminated)

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 17


LCM Approach

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Example

Machine A Machine B
First Cost $11,000 $18,000
Annual Operating Cost 3,500 3,100
Salvage Value 1,000 2,000
Life 6 years 9 years

MARR = 15%
Choose the best alternative using PW Method.
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 19
Different-life Alternatives
Machine A F6=$1,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

A 1-6

$11,000 =$3,500
F6=$2,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
A 1-9
Machine B
=$3,100

i = 15% per year


$18,000

LCM (6,9) = 18 year planning horizon, T

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 20


EXAMPLE 1: PW Method – LCM Approach
Machine A
6 years 6 years 6 years

Cycle 1 for A Cycle 2 for A Cycle 3 for A

Machine B
9 years 9 years

Cycle 1 for B Cycle 2 for B

18 years

Take note of the year when 1 cycle ends and the new cycle begins.
For example: in Machine A CFD, at the end of year 6, Salvage Value for the 1st cycle and First Cost for 2nd
cycle will be present
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 21
LCM = 18 years
Calculate the present worth for 18 yrs for alternative A
PWA = -11,000 - 3,500 (P|A, 15%, 18) + (1,000-11,000)
(P|F, 15%, 6) + (1,000-11,000) (P|F, 15%, 12) + 1,000
(P|F, 15%, 18)

= -11,000 - 3,500 (6.1280) - 10,000 (0.4323) -


10,000 (0.1869) +1,000 (0.0808)

PWA= $ -38,559

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 22


Calculate the Present Worth of a
9-year cycle for alternative B
PWB = -18,000-3,100(P|A, 15%, 9) + 2,000(P|F, 15%, 9)
= -18,000 - 3,100(4.7716) + 2,000(.2843)
= $ - 32,223 which occurs at time 0 and 9
0 9 18

$32,223 $32,223

Now, for the 18 years:


PWB = - 32,223 – 32,223(P|F, .15, 9)
= - 32,223 - 32,223(.2843) = $ - 41,384
PWA > PWB, service type project, so the company
should choose machine A.
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 23
Study Period (co-terminated) Approach

• Study period, T, can be less or greater than useful life (n). One technique is to assign the study
period equal to the useful life of one of the alternatives (one less modification of CFD).
• Study period approach is often used in replacement analysis.
• Usually applied in feasibility studies.
• The time horizon chosen may be relatively short
• Also useful when LCM of alternatives yields unrealistically long time horizons (i.e LCM of 7 and
10 years)
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 24
Case A: Study Period > Useful Life
Procedure: The cash flows of the alternatives
need to be adjusted to terminate at the end of Example: n = 6 yrs, T = 10 yrs
the study period.
Machine A F6=$1,000

✓ Cost alternatives: Assuming repeatability, 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

repeat part of the useful life of the original A 1-6


=$3,500
alternative, and then use an estimated $11,000

market value (MV) to truncate it at the end • Service must continue for cost projects.
of the study period. Without repeatability, Additional cash flows need to be
estimated for remaining years.
we must purchase/lease the service/asset T
for the remaining years.

✓ Investment alternatives: Assume all cash n


flows will be reinvested at the MARR to the
• No modification in CFD for revenue
end of the study period (i.e., calculate FW at projects
end of useful life and move this to the end of
the study period using the MARR).
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 25
A. Service Projects
➢ Come up with replacement
projects that match or exceed
the required service period.
➢ Compute the PW/AW/FW for
each project over the required
service period.
➢ Example:
Model A useful life – 3 yrs
Model B useful life – 4 yrs
Study period: 5 years

PW(15%)A = -$34,359
PW(15%)B = -$31,031
Select Model B, least cost
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 26
B. Revenue Projects
Example:
➢ Analysis Period coincides
with the project with the
longest life in the Mutually
Exclusive Group
➢ Drill option useful life – 5 yrs
➢ Lease option – 3 yrs

➢ PW(15%)Drill =
$2,208,470
➢ PW(15%)Lease =
$2,180,210
➢ Select Drill Option
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 27
Practice Problem 1
A B
Investment -$3,500 -$5,000
Annual Revenue 1,900 2,500
Annual Expenses 645 1,020
Useful Life (years) 4 6
Market Value at EO useful 0 0
life

If the MARR is 10%


a) Using the repeatability assumption and PW method, which alternative is more
desirable? PWA = $1,028 PWB = $2,262 ---> Select Alt. B
b) Perhaps the reasonable manager wanted a six-year analysis period because it is
the planning horizon used in the company for small investment projects. Which
alternative should be chosen? PWA = $478 PWB = $1,446 ---> Select Alt. B
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 28
Practice Problem 2
A company requires 4 additional forklift trucks to support a regional warehouse.
The shutdown of this warehouse is 8 years and MARR is 15% per year. The
following estimated info is based on the requirement of four forklifts (excluding
labor expenses which are the same for each model)

Stackhigh (A) S-2000 (B)


Investment -$184,000 -$242,000
Annual Expenses 30,000 26,700
Useful Life (years), n 5 7
Market Value at n 17,000 21,000

Future leasing of four forklifts would have a total cost of $104,000 per year based
on a 3-year lease and a total cost of $134,000 per year based on a 1-yr lease. Which
model should be selected assuming that leasing would be used to provide a full 8
years of comparable service? PWA = $-394,175 PWB = $-388,993 ---> Select Alt. B
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 29
Case B: Study Period < Useful Life

When the study period is explicitly stated to be shorter than the


useful life, use the co-termination assumption.

Procedure: The cash flows of the alternatives need to be adjusted to


terminate at the end of the study period.

✓ Truncate the alternative at the end of the study period using an


estimated Market Value (can be estimated using actual MV at end
of useful life or computed using Imputed Market value Technique)

Estimated MV
Machine A F6=$1,000 at EOY 4. cash
Example: n = 6 yrs, T = 4 yrs flows after
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 EOY 4 will be
ignored
A 1-6

$11,000 =$3,500
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. T 30
Annual Worth Analysis

 Principle: Measure an
investment worth on annual
basis
❑ Benefits: By knowing the annual
equivalent worth, we can:
❑ Seek consistency of report
format
❑ Determine the unit cost (or unit
profit)
❑ Facilitate the unequal project
life comparison

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 31


Annual Worth Analysis

Comparing Mutually Exclusive Alternatives:

 Service projects: select the alternative with the


minimum annual equivalent cost (AEC).

 Revenue projects: select the alternative with the


maximum AW(MARR).

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 32


Annual Worth Analysis
❖ Ideal approach for comparing
alternatives with different lives
under LCM assumptions

❖ AW value has to be calculated


for only one life cycle

❖ LCM comparison is implicit as,

AWLCM = AWplanning horizon

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 33


EXAMPLE 3 – AW Method
The following costs are estimated for two equal-service
machines to be evaluated by a canning plant manager.
Machine A Machine B
First Cost, $ 26,000 36,000
Annual maintenance cost, $ 800 300
Annual labor cost, $ 11,000 7,000
Extra annual income taxes, $ - 2,600
Salvage value, $ 2,000 3,000
Life, years 6 10
If the minimum required rate of return is 15% per year, help the
manager decide which machine to select. Use AW and LCM
Method.
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 34
Solution
Machine A:
AWA = -11,800 – [26,000(A/P,15%,6) - 2,000 (A/F,15%,6)]
= -11,800 - 26,000 (0.26424) + 2,000 (0.11424)
= $-18,442
AWA over 6 years = AWA over LCM 30 yrs = -18,442

Machine B:
AWB = - 9,900 - [36,000(A/P,15%,10) - 3,000 (A/F,15%,10)]
= - 9,900 - 36,000 (0.19925) + 3,000 (0.04925)
= $-16,925
AWB over 10 years = AWB over LCM 30 yrs = -16,925

Select machine B since AWB > AWA.


© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 35
Example 3 (Modified)
Assume the company in previous example is planning to
exit the business in 4 years. At that time, the company
expects to sell machine A for $12,000 or machine B for
$15,000. All other costs are expected to remain the same.
Which machine should the company purchase under
these conditions? Use AW Method.

NOTE:
This is a study period problem. So we must consider all
cash flows only for the study period (4 years), and use
the estimated market values.

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 36


Solution:

AWA = – 11,800 - [26,000(A/P,15%,4) -12,000 (A/F,15%,4)]


= – 11,800 -26,000 (0.35027) + 12,000 (0.20027)
= $-18,504

AWB = – 9,900 - [36,000(A/P,15%,4) -15,000 (A/F,15%,4)]


= – 9,900 -36,000 (0.35027) + 15,000 (0.20027)
= $-19,506
Select machine A as AWA > AWB.
Here is an example where study period decision differs from LCM decision.
Hence, the choice of planning horizon is important!

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 37


Imputed Market Value Technique
 Implied Market Value
 To estimate the market value of a piece of equipment at the
end of year T when T is less than the useful life n
MVT = (PW at the end of year T of remaining capital recovery
amounts) + (PW at end of year T of original salvage value at
end of useful life)
MVT = CR (P/A, i , n-T) + SV (P/F, i, n-T)
CR – Capital Recovery Amount
PW – present worth at i = MARR
T – study period
n – useful life
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 38
Additional notes
SV

=
CR
I
Compute for CR:
Example: n – 10 years, T = 6 years CR(i%) = I (A/P, i%,N) - SV (A/F, i%,N)
To compute for MVT :
Get the PW at EOY 6 of SV

Get the PW at EOY 6 of remaining CR SV

I
MVT = CR (P/A, i , n-T) + SV (P/F, i, n-T)
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 39
EXAMPLE
Two chocolate factories are on sale. One is located in London
and produces chocolate truffles and chocolate bars. The other
one is located at Rio de Janeiro and produces chocolate squares
and bars. You have gathered the following details from the
factories:
London Rio de Janeiro
Investment $15 M $8 M
Annual Net Revenues $3.62 M $1.78 M
Factory Life (years) 15 20
Salvage Value at n $6 M $2.5 M

If you plan be a chocolatier for only 15 years and you have set
your MARR to be 20%, which chocolate factory should you buy?
Use IMV technique and PW Method.
PWL = 2.31 M PWR = 0.7 M → Select London
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 40
SOLUTION

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 41


Comparison of Perpetual Alternatives

If an investment has infinite life, it is called a


perpetual (permanent) investment
 RECALL:
 Capitalized Worth (CW) for a uniform series A of end-
of-period cash flows: CW = A/i
 If P is the present worth of that investment, then:
AW= P*i

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 42


Example

Two alternatives are considered for covering a


football field. The first is to plant natural grass and
the second is to install AstroTurf. Discount rate is
10%. Cost structure for each alternative is given in
the following slides. Use AW method to choose the
best alternative.

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 43


Alternatives:

Natural Grass - Replanting will be required each 10 years at


a cost of $10,000. Annual cost for maintenance is $5,000.
Equipment must be purchased for $50,000 which will be
replaced after 5 years with a salvage value of $5,000
5K 5K

0 1 2 3 4 6 10
10K 5K + 10K
5K 5K 5K 5K 5K 5K

50K 50K 50K

AstroTurf - Installing AstroTurf cost $150,000 and it is


expected to last indefinitely. Annual maintenance cost is
expected to be $5,000
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 44
5K 5K

Solution: 0 1 2 3 4 6 10
10K
AW of Alternative A 5K
10K
5K 5K 5K 5K 5K
Cycle = 10 years 50K 50K 50K

Planting: -10,000 (A|P, 10%, 10) = $-1,627 Excluded- belongs to


the next cycle
1st Set Equipment (first 5 years):
[-50,000 - 45,000(P|F,10%,5) + 5,000(P|F,10%,10)] (A|P,10%,10)
= $-12,367
Maintenance : -5,000 annually
Total : -1,627 – 12,367 – 5,000 = $-18,994

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 45


AW of Alternative B:
(AstroTurf - Installing AstroTurf cost $150,000 and it is expected to last
indefinitely. Annual maintenance cost is expected to be $5,000)
Annual Cost of Installation : -150,000 (0.10) = $-15,000
Maintenance: $-5,000 annually
Total : -15,000 - 5,000 = $-20,000

➔ Choose A

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 46


Practice Problem 3
 Mr. Y is the project engineer assigned to start up a new office
for JV Builders Corp. Two lease options are available:
Location A Location B
First Cost, $ 15,000 18,000 *Deposit return is an
Annual lease cost, $ 3,500 3,100 amount that is given
per year back to the lessee by
the lessor after the
Deposit return, $ 1,000 2,000
lease term period.
Lease term, years 6 9
MARR 10% per year

 Which location should be selected if a 6-year study period is


used? Use PW Method, and IMV Technique to estimate the
needed deposit returns. ANS: PWA = -$29,678
PWB = -$26,472
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. So, choose location B 47
Practice Problem 4 (CW Method)

CW(6%) of TRUSS BRIDGE = - $40.78M


CW(6%) of SUSPENSION BRIDGE = -$52.71M
© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. Choose TRUSS bridge 48
Additional self-assessment
 Answer Problem 2 in the CE 22 Problem Set
uploaded in UVLê

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 49



Thank You!
mddiola

© M.D. Diola 2020. All Rights Reserved. 50

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