Scenariul de baza

Situatia veniturilor si cheltuielilor

2016 2017
Venituri, Total 17,309,000 19,437,000
Venituri din marfuri 16,459,000 18,568,000
Costul bunurilor vandute 8,236,000 9,269,000
Cheltuieli cu marfurile (cheltuieli variabile) 8,236,000 9,269,000
Marja Bruta 8,223,000 9,299,000
Alte venituri operationale 850,000 869,000
Chetuieli de marketing 192,154 210,400
Cheltuieli generale si adiministrative 3,942,441 4,181,460
Salarii 2,542,441 2,781,460
Taxe locale 150,000 150,000
Amortizare/Deprecieri 1,250,000 1,250,000
Alte cheltuieli operationale 50,000 50,000
Profitul brut din exploatare - EBIT 4,888,405 5,726,140
Venituri financiare (Conturi curente) 50,000 52,000
Cheltuieli financiare (dobanzi) 860,000 860,000
Rezultat financiar -810,000 -808,000
Profitul brut 4,078,405 4,918,140
Impozitul pe profit 652,545 786,902
Profitul net 3,425,860 4,131,238

IPOTEZE
1. Veniturile din marfuri vor creste conform trendului istoric

2. Ponderea cheltuielilor variabile se mentine constanta

3.Cheltuielile cu salariile cresc cu rata inflatiei de 4% annual
4.Taxele locale, amortizarea si restul cheltuielilor se mentin constante cu nivelul din 2019
5.CAPEX (investitiile) - 1 mil in fiecare an incepand cu anul 2020
6. ΔNFR - 5% din cifra de afaceri
7. K - 12.25%
8.Incepand cu anul 5 de previziune cash-flow-ul va creste constant cu rata inflatiei
9. Cheltuielile de marketing se determina in functie de CA
10. rata de crestere g=3% rata de crestere a sectorului de activitate

Scenariul A
Situatia veniturilor si cheltuielilor

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

21,870,000 24,610,000 27,698,540 31,188,590 35,132,347 39,588,792
21,025,000 23,758,000 26,846,540 30,336,590 34,280,347 38,736,792
10,560,000 11,986,500 13,423,270 15,168,295 17,140,173 19,368,396
10,560,000 11,986,500 13,423,270 15,168,295 17,140,173 19,368,396
10,465,000 11,771,500 13,423,270 15,168,295 17,140,173 19,368,396
845,000 852,000 852,000 852,000 852,000 852,000
220,000 225,780 268,465 303,366 342,803 387,368
4,266,280 4,312,500 4,429,000 4,550,160 4,676,166 4,807,213
2,866,280 2,912,500 3,029,000 3,150,160 3,276,166 3,407,213
150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000
1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000
50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000
6,773,720 8,035,220 9,527,805 11,116,769 12,923,204 14,975,815
55,000 57,000 59,280 61,651 64,117 66,682
860,000 860,000 860,000 860,000 860,000 860,000
-805,000 -803,000 -800,720 -798,349 -795,883 -793,318
5,968,720 7,232,220 8,727,085 10,318,420 12,127,321 14,182,497
954,995 1,157,155 1,396,334 1,650,947 1,940,371 2,269,200
5,013,725 6,075,065 7,330,751 8,667,473 10,186,950 11,913,297
 0.1281365818 0.132324429 0.12998811

0.500394920712072 0.4991921586 0.502259215 0.50452479

0.011674706847318 0.0113313227 0.010463734 0.00950333

0.04 0.057692308 0.03636364

FNNI - CFD
2020 2021 2022 2023
Profitul net 7,330,751 8,667,473 10,186,950 11,913,297
+dobanzi *0.84% 722,400 722,400 722,400 722,400
+Amortizari/Dep 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000 1,250,000
- ΔNFR 1,342,327 1,516,830 1,714,017 1,936,840
- CAPEX 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
FNNI - CFD 6,960,824 8,123,044 9,445,332 10,948,858
FNNI - CFD actualizat 6201179.567 6446828.041 6678181 6896415.494
factor actualizare 0.8908685969 0.793646857 0.70703506 0.629875333
Suma FNNI - CFD actualizat 26,222,604
Valuarea terminala 121917011.82
Valuarea terminala actualizata 76792518.477
Valoarea intreprinderii 103,015,123
Valoare participatie 20% 20603024.518
CFD 2024 121917011.82
media media +1

0.13014970678 1.13015

0.50159277153

0.0107432721

0.04884615385 1.048846