4.5.

Exponential Distribution
The exponential random variable can be used to describe the life time of a machine,
industrial product and Human being. Also, it can be used to describe the waiting
time of a customer for some service.
Exponential Probability Density Function:
A random variable X taking values in [0, ∞) has the exponential probability
density function 𝒇𝑿 if
𝝀𝒆−𝝀𝒙 , 𝒙 ≥ 𝟎
𝒇𝑿 (𝒙) = �
𝟎, 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆.
where the parameter 𝛌 > 0.
The graph of 𝒇𝑿 is
f(x)

0
x

Properties of Exponential Density Function:

Let X be the random variable with the exponential density function 𝒇𝑿 and the
parameter 𝛌. Then the cumulative distribution function 𝑭𝑿 is
𝟎, 𝒙 < 0
𝑭𝑿 (𝒙) = �
𝟏 − 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 , 𝒙 ≥ 𝟎.
𝟏
𝑬(𝑿) =
𝝀
and
𝟏
𝒗𝒂𝒓(𝑿) = .
𝝀𝟐
Note: For the random variable X with the exponential density function 𝒇𝑿 and
the parameter 𝛌 , 𝑺𝑿 (𝒙) = 𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝒙) = 𝒆−𝝀𝒙 is called the survival function.
Further, the exponential distribution has the memory property
𝑺𝑿 (𝒕 + 𝒔)
𝑷(𝑿 > 𝑡 + 𝑠|𝑋 > 𝑡) = = 𝒆−𝝀𝒔 = 𝑺𝑿 (𝒔) = 𝑷(𝑿 > 𝑠).
𝑺𝑿 (𝒕)
Example 8:
Let X represent the life time of a washing machine. Suppose the average lifetime
for this type of washing machine is 15 years. What is the probability that this
washing machine can be used for less than 6 years? Also, what is the probability
that this washing machine can be used for more than 18 years?
[solution:]

X has the exponential density function with 𝛌 = 𝟏�𝟏𝟓. Then,

−𝟔�
𝐏(𝑿 ≤ 𝟔) = 𝟏 − 𝒆 𝟏𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟐𝟗𝟕

and
−𝟏𝟖�
𝐏(𝑿 ≥ 𝟏𝟖) = 𝒆 𝟏𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟎𝟏𝟐

Thus, for this washing machine, it is about 30% chance that it can be used for quite
a long time or a short time.

Relationship Between Poisson and Exponential Random Variable:

Let Y be a Poisson random variable representing the number of occurrences in an
time interval of unit length (or one unit of time) with the probability
distribution
𝒆−𝝀 𝝀𝒚
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝒚) = 𝒇𝒀 (𝒚) = , 𝒚 = 𝟎, 𝟏, ⋯
𝒚!
where 𝝀 is the mean number of occurrences in this time interval. Then, if X
represent the time of one occurrence, X has the exponential density function with
mean
𝟏
𝑬(𝑿) = .
𝝀
The intuition of the above result is as follows. Suppose the time interval is [0,1] (in
hour) and 𝝀 = 𝟒. Then, on the average, there are 4 occurrences during 1 hour
𝟏 𝟏
period. Thus, the mean time for one occurrence is 𝝀
= 𝟒 (𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓).The number of

occurrences can be described by a Poisson random variable (discrete) with mean 4

while the time of one occurrence can be described by an exponential random
𝟏
variable (continuous) with mean 𝟒.
Example 9:
Suppose the average number of car accidents on the highway in two days is 8.
What is the probability of no accident for more than 3 days?
[solutions:]
𝟖
The average number of car accidents on the highway in one day is 𝟐
= 𝟒. Thus, the

𝟏
mean time of one occurrence is (𝒅𝒂𝒚). Let Y be the Poisson random variable
𝟒

with mean 4 representing the number of car accidents in one day while let X be the
𝟏 𝟏
exponential random variable with mean 𝟒
= 𝝀 (𝒅𝒂𝒚) representing the time of

one accident occurrence, i.e., 𝝀 = 𝟒. Thus,

𝐏(𝑵𝒐 𝒂𝒄𝒄𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒏 𝟑 𝒅𝒂𝒚𝒔)
= 𝐏(𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒐𝒄𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒏 𝟑)
= 𝑷(𝑿 > 3) = 𝒆−𝟒∙𝟑 = 𝒆−𝟏𝟐 ≈ 𝟎.

Example 10:
The time between breakdown of a new automated production process is
exponentially distributed with mean 16 (hour/breakdown).
(a) What is the probability that the process can run 2 days shift without a
breakdown?
(b) What is the probability that there are 3 breakdowns within 8 hours?
(c) What is the probability that a breakdown occurs between 8 and 16 hours?
[solution:]
(a) Let X be the random variable representing the time between breakdown.

Then, 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝟏𝟔, i.e., 𝝀 = 𝟏�𝟏𝟔.

−𝟒𝟖
𝐏(𝑿 ≥ 𝟒𝟖) = 𝒆 �𝟏𝟔 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟗𝟕.
(b) Let Y be the random variable representing the number of breakdowns within 8

hours. Then Y is a Poisson random variable with mean 𝟏�𝟏𝟔 ∙ 𝟖 = 𝟎. 𝟓. Then,

𝒆−𝟎.𝟓 𝟎. 𝟓𝟑
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟑) = 𝒇𝒀 (𝟑) = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟔.
𝟑!
(c)
𝐏(𝟖 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟏𝟔) = 𝐏(𝟎 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟏𝟔) − 𝐏(𝟎 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝟖) =
−𝟏𝟔� −𝟖�
�𝟏 − 𝒆 𝟏𝟔 � − �𝟏 − 𝒆 𝟏𝟔 � = 𝒆−𝟎.𝟓 − 𝒆−𝟏 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟑𝟖𝟔.
Example 11:
A new automated production process has been averaging 2 breakdown per 8 hours
of operation. Assume the number of breakdowns follows a Poisson probability
distribution.
(a) What is the mean time between breakdown and the distribution for the time
between breakdowns?
(b) What is the probability that the process will run one hour or more before
another breakdown?
(c) What is the probability that the process can run a full 8-hour shift without a
breakdown?
[solution:]
(a) Let X be the random variable representing the time between breakdowns. Then,

𝝀 = 𝟐�𝟖 = 𝟏�𝟒 and

𝟏 𝟏
𝑬(𝑿) = = = 𝟒.
𝝀 𝟐�
𝟖
Then, the time between breakdowns is exponentially distributed with probability
density function
𝟏 −𝒙
𝒇𝑿 (𝒙) = � 𝟒 𝒆 , 𝒙 ≥ 𝟎
𝟒

𝟎, 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆.
(b)
[method 1:] By (a),
−𝟏
𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝟏) = 𝒆 �𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟕𝟖𝟖.
[method 2:] Let Y be the random variable representing the number of breakdowns

within 1 hour. Then, 𝑬(𝒀) = 𝟏�𝟒 = 𝝀 and

𝒆−𝝀 𝝀𝟎 −𝟏
𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟎) = 𝒇𝒀 (𝟎) = = 𝒆 �𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟕𝟖𝟖.
𝟎!
(c)
[method 1:] By (a),
−𝟖
𝑷(𝑿 ≥ 𝟖) = 𝒆 �𝟒 = 𝒆−𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟓𝟑.
[method 2:] Let S be the random variable representing the number of breakdowns
within 8 hour. Then, 𝑬(𝑺) = 𝟐 = 𝝁.
𝒆−𝝁 𝝁𝟎
𝑷(𝑺 = 𝟎) = 𝒇𝑺 (𝟎) = = 𝒆−𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟓𝟑.
𝟎!
Example 12 (Example 4.10, Textbook):
In a hospital, 5 babies are born per day on average. Let the random variable X
measure the time from midnight to the first arrival of a baby. What are the
expected value and the median of X? What is the probability that more than two
babies are born between 12 o’clock midnight and 6 o’clock in the morning?
[solution:]
X is exponentially distributed with probability density function
𝟓 −𝟓𝒙
𝒇𝑿 (𝒙) = �𝟐𝟒 𝒆 , 𝒙 ≥ 𝟎
𝟐𝟒

𝟎, 𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒘𝒊𝒔𝒆,

since 𝛌 = 𝟓�𝟐𝟒 (𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒚/𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓), 𝒊. 𝒆. , 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝟏�𝝀 = 𝟐𝟒�𝟓 = 𝟒. 𝟖 (𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔).

−𝟓𝒙𝟎.𝟓�
Suppose the median is 𝒙𝟎.𝟓 , i.e., 𝑷(𝑿 ≤ 𝒙𝟎.𝟓 ) = 𝟏 − 𝒆 𝟐𝟒 = 𝟎. 𝟓. By taking

logarithm,
𝟐𝟒𝒍𝒐𝒈(𝟐)
𝒙𝟎.𝟓 = = 𝟑. 𝟑𝟑 (𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓𝒔)
𝟓
Finally, let Y be the random variable representing the number of babies between
12 o’clock midnight and 6 o’clock in the morning. Then Y is Poisson distributed with

the mean 𝑬(𝒀) = 𝟓�𝟐𝟒 ∙ 𝟔 = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟓 (𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒆𝒔) or

𝑬(𝒀) = 𝟔�𝟐𝟒 ∙ 𝟓 = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟓 (𝒃𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒆𝒔). Then

𝑷(𝒀 > 2) = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟎) − 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟏) − 𝑷(𝒀 = 𝟐)

𝟏. 𝟐𝟓𝟐 𝒆−𝟏.𝟐𝟓
= 𝟏 − 𝒆−𝟏.𝟐𝟓 − 𝟏. 𝟐𝟓𝒆−𝟏.𝟐𝟓 − = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟑𝟏𝟓
𝟐!