Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Will US Secretary of State
Pompeo Make Surprise Visit to
Vietnam?
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 28, 2020

We have just learned that US State Secretary Mike Pompeo will pay an unexpected
visit to Vietnam on Thursday (29 October), after visits to India, Sri Lanka and Indonesia.
This visit has not yet been confirmed by Vietnam or by US officials. And there is no
public information so far. And if it's true, then what are the reasons for such an
unexpected visit? What do you expect two sides to talk about? And what are the
messages from such a visit?
ANSWER: If the visit does take place it will be good news because the coronavirus has
prevented many face-to-face meetings and disrupted the rhythm of bilateral US-
Vietnam relations.
Secretary Pompeo’s current visit to India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Indonesia is aimed
at enlisting these countries to support cooperative efforts to oppose China in the Indo-
Pacific region.
If Secretary Pompeo can make a visit to Vietnam at the last minute, it is unlikely the
two sides would have prepared a detailed agenda for the talks setting out what each
party wants to achieve.

Based on Secretary Pompeo’s remarks to the virtual annual ASEAN-United States

Foreign Ministers Meeting on 9 September, official accounts of the U.S.-India 2 + 2
Ministerial Dialogue (Foreign and Defence Ministers) on 27 October, and press
coverage of Pompeo’s current visit to Indonesia, the key themes of these visits are
likely to be raised during his ostensible visit to Vietnam

Secretary Pompeo has top three priorities (1) to discuss how Vietnam and the U.S. can
cooperate to advance a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) and ASEAN’s Outlook on
the Indo-Pacific (2) to promote cooperation in combatting the coronavirus related to
vaccines and therapeutics and post-COVID recovery and (3) U.S. participation in
ASEAN’s end of year round of summits and high-level meetings which follow U.S.
elections on 3 November.

Secretary Pompeo will be keen to determine what practical steps Vietnam will be
willing to take to advance the FOIP. Pompeo might raise stepped up cooperation
between the two coast guards to combat illegal Chinese fishing, funding for specific
 2

infrastructure projects, and possibly permitting U.S. maritime reconnaissance aircraft,

such as the P-8 Poseidon, to fly from Vietnam. Indonesia just declined to do so.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Will US Secretary of State Pompeo Make

Surprise Visit to Vietnam?” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 28, 2020.
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.