Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Why Asians Support Trump
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 28, 2020

We request your analysis about the Vietnamese communities’ reaction (both in

Vietnam and in the US) about the US elections as revealed in two public opinion polls:
http://aapidata.com/blog/2020-aa-voter-survey-enthusiasm/
Among Asian Countries, 48% of Vietnamese support Trump to win the coming election
And in Vietnam, Vnexpress’ poll aked the question: in your opinion, who will win the
US election? 79% choose Trump.
Q1. More Vietnamese are in favor of Trump. Why is that? What is your view?
ANSWER: There are likely three reasons: Trump is well-known through his two visits
to Vietnam, including the high-profile second summit meeting with Kim Jong-un;
Trump has a higher media profile in Vietnam than his opponent, Joe Biden; Trump is
outspoken against China on trade issues and the coronavirus.
Q2. Why is the U.S. important for Vietnam? Which is more important for Vietnam
China or the United States?
ANSWER: The United States is Vietnam’s largest export market, while China is
Vietnam’s largest trade partner. Vietnam has a huge trade surplus with the United
States and a huge trade deficit with China. Vietnam needs resources from China so it
can manufacture and export a range of goods on the global market.
China represents an existential threat to Vietnam due to its territorial dispute in the
South China Sea. The Trump Administration has given continued public support to
Vietnam on the South China Sea issue and has given material support to boost
Vietnam’s maritime security capabilities. The US seeks a strategic partnership with
Vietnam.
Both China and the United States are important to Vietnam reflecting a situation many
other countries face, such as Australia. Vietnam’s foreign policy is directed at
maintaining Vietnam’s independence, self-reliance and strategic autonomy. In other
words, Vietnam seeks balance in its external relations and as a matter of pragmatism
and eschews taking sides.
Q3. Does the trade war between US and China pose any threats on Vietnam in the
future?
 2

ANSWER: So far Vietnam has benefitted from the U.S.-China trade war. Some Chinese
enterprises have set up in Vietnam to export to the United States without the
restrictions on tariffs that goods produced in China face. Also, several brand name
foreign companies in China are relocating to Vietnam. Vietnam has taken steps to
reduce its trade deficit with China while pressing China to make it easier for
Vietnamese goods, especially agricultural products, to enter China.
As long as Trump is president of the United States Vietnam faces possible sanctions
by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). Vietnam’s trade
surplus has increased in recent years and this has drawn critical scrutiny by Trump
Administration officials. In early October, the USTR initiated two investigations into
Vietnam, one dealing with charges of currency manipulation, the other into illegal
imports of timber that is processed and exported to the United States.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Why Asians Support Trump,” Thayer

Consultancy Background Brief, October 28, 2020. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.