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À 
    

For randomlyoccurring events, we would like to know how many times we get a desired result
out of total trials. This means we would like to know the fraction of favourable events or trails.
Suppose, we flip a coin a few number of times. We may count how many times there is a ³Head´
or a ³Tail´ out of all the flips.

Let,

݊ = No. of favourable events and ܰ = Total no. of events.



‫݂׵‬ൌ = fraction of favourable events. We can also say this is relative frequency in the usual

language of Statistics.

Now, if we do the trials a large number of times, this ratio ݂ tends to a fixed value specific to the
event. This is the concept of probability.

Note:
Total no. of trials is also called µsample space¶ when we are drawing samples out of total
µpopulation¶. As the no. of trials is increased, the sample space becomes bigger.

à
  À 

Àrobability is the ratio of number of favourable events to the total number of events, provided the
total number of events is very large (actually infinity).

rൌ , when ܰ ՜ λ (infinity).

So by definition, r is a fraction between 0 and 1 :  r  .

rൌ No favourable outcome.

r ൌ  All the outcomes are in favour.

We can also think in the following way: r ൌ probability of occurring an event, ‫ ݍ‬ൌ probability
of not occurring the event. Since, either the event will occur or not occur, we must write:

r  ‫ ݍ‬ൌ 

Therefore, we have ‫ ݍ‬ൌ   r.

Example #1:

In a coin toss, we know from our experience, r = 


and r   = 
=  
ଵ ଵ
r ൌ ‫ݍ‬. So, r  r   ൌ  ൌ .
ଶ ଶ



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Example #2:

In a throw of a dice, we know that the probability of the dice facing ³1´ up, ³2´ up, ³3´ up etc.
will be rଵ ൌ 
, rଶ ൌ 
, r ൌ 
 and so on.
ଵ ଵ ଵ
Here, rଵ  rଶ  r   ൌ   ǥ ൌ 
଺ ଺ ଺


Àrobability of not occurring ³1´ =   ൌ ͷ
 .

Note:
The condition that the total probability of all the events has to be 1 is called ×  ×of
probabilities.

! 
À 

When more than one event takes place, we need to calculate the joint probability for the all the
events.

O  
  
Two events are mutually exclusive (or disjoint) when they can not occur at the same time.
Suppose, two events are A and B and the individual probabilities for them are designated as
r and r . O   
 
means,
r݊ ൌ .

Addition Rule: r ൌ r  r




Example#1: The probability of occurring either Head or Tail in a coin toss,


 
r   ൌ r  r   ൌ  ൌ 

Example#2: The probability of occurring either ³1¶ or ³6´ in a dice throw,
ଵ ଵ ଶ
r ൌ rଵ  r଺ ൌ  ଺ ൌ ଺ ൌ 
.

o      
When the occurrence of one event does not influence the other but they can occur at the same
time, they are called independent. For example, the rain fall today and the Manchester United
winning a match.

Multiplication Rule: r݊ ൌ r  r 



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Example#1: What is the probability that two Heads will occur when we toss two coins together?
r ൌ 
for the first coin and r ൌ 
for the second coin.
ଵ ଵ
‫ ׵‬r݊ ൌ  ൌ 
.
ଶ ଶ
Note that if would flip a single coin two times and ask the probability of getting Heads twice, we
would get the same answer.

Example#2: Now we ask the question, what is the probability of getting one Head and one Tail
in the flipping of two coins together?
Consider, the probability of obtaining Head in the first coin and Tail in the second coin:
ଵ ଵ
r݊ ൌ  ൌ 
.
ଶ ଶ
And the probability of obtaining Tail in the first and the Head in the second:
ଵ ଵ
r ݊ ൌ  ൌ 
.
ଶ ଶ
Now the total probability of above two events (either of them occurs mutually exclusively):
ଵ ଵ
r  ൌ  ൌ 
.
ସ ସ
Note that in the flipping of two coins together, there are 4 types of events, HH, HT, TH, TT. Out
of which the relative occurrence of one Head and one Tail is 2/4 = /12.

    O  




If the events are not mutually exclusive, there are some overlap. Suppose, we designate an area
A corresponding to the probability of some event A and the area B to the probability of another
event B. The overlap between the two areas then represents the joint probability r݊ .
Note that for two independent events the overlap would be zero.




Addition Rule in this case: r ൌ r  r  r݊ 

    o    

Multiplication rule: r݊ ൌ r  r  



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r)  ³The probability of B given A´. This is a × ×  , i.e., the probability
of occurring B provided A occurs first.
Similarly, r)  ³The probability of A given B´.

Note here that


r) = r , when B does not depend on A that means A and B are independent.
r) = r , when A does not depend on B that means A and B are independent.

So, we can write the a  a  × ×  :

r݊
r  ൌ 
r

Now as examples, follow the following table:


In a survey over 100 people, the question was asked whether they are graduate or not.

Graduate Non- Total


graduate
Male 40 20 60

Female 10 30 40

Total 50 50 100


 What us the probability that a randomly selected person is a male?
଺଴
× ൌ 
ͷ
ଵ଴଴
 What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a female?
 ସ଴
× ൌ
ͷ
ଵ଴଴
 What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a male who is graduate?
 ସ଴
× ൌ 

ଵ଴଴
 What is the probability that a randomly selected person is a female who is non-graduate?

ൌ 

଴
×
ଵ଴଴
What is the probability that the randomly selected person is either a male graduate or a
female non-graduate?

ൌ ͹
 .

Ans. This two events are mutually exclusive and by the law of addition, 
ଵ଴ ଵ଴



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 If we now select two persons, what is the probability that one of them is a male graduate
and another is a female non-graduate?

× Two independent events are occurring together. So by the law of multiplication of
ସ ଵଶ
ൌ ൌ 
ͷ .

probabilities,
ଵ଴

ଵ଴ ଵ଴଴
 What is the probability that a randomly selected no-graduate is a female?

ൌ 

଴
×
ସ଴
 What is the probability that a randomly selected graduate is a male?
 ସ଴
× This is no. of male out of total graduates, ൌ 
ͷ.
ହ଴

p : In Q.7&8, each probability is a × ×  . However, we gave the answers by
looking at the table directly. Now we answer them in terms of the law of conditional probability.
× Suppose, A = graduate, B = male, r = probability of male given that they are
graduates.
We use the formula:
r݊
r  ൌ 
r
ସ଴ ହ଴
Here,r݊ = Àrob. of male graduates = ଵ଴଴ , r = prob. of graduates = ଵ଴଴

‫ ׵‬r  ൌ భబబ


రబ ఱబ
భబబୀସ
ହ.

Exercise:Q.7 can also be answered in terms of conditional probability formula. Do this and check
yourself.

 What is the probability that the selected person is either male or graduate?
×Here the two events do not happen together but they are not mutually exclusive. So we use
the formula: r ൌ ܲ  ܲ  ܲ݊
ହ଴ ଺଴ ସ଴ ଻଴
=   ൌ ൌ ͹
 .
ଵ଴଴ ଵ଴଴ ଵ଴଴ ଵ଴଴

À à   

Let us think of the probabilities rଵ ǡ rଶ ǡ r ǥfor a number of events marked 1, 2, 3«..and so on.
For each event ൌ ǡ ǡ  ǥ we can have  r   and also for all the events, r ൌ .
So we have a set of probabilities corresponding to a set of events. This collection is a probability
distribution for all that discrete events.

Fig.
Suppose, instead of discrete events we think that is variable which can continuous values in
and there is the probability r for each value of . Now if we plot r against , we get a



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continuous curve which is the continuous probability distribution curve (commonly referred as
the probability distribution curve).

Fig.

Here the area under the curve is the following definite integral:
!"
! r  = ܲ

ܲ is the total probability for all the values between the two limits. That is why, r is often
referred to as the probability density. So, r  is the probability in between and   ,
where  is the infinitesimally small (smaller than you can think) range!
Note that for  

 
, the above is the sum of all the mutually exclusive events.
[ The sum, #$%&'$()*$+,)$-./0ǡ 1&.%&,)+,2&2(%/($34

Also,
5
65 r  =  (Normalization)

The above means that the total area under the curve (extended from negative infinity to positive
infinity that means over the entire stretch of the curve.) is unity. This is true as in discrete casewe
know that the sum of all the probabilities for all the events should be 1.

For discrete events, we calculated the relative frequency and then the Bar diagram from them.
Here for the continuous case, the bars merge together to form a continuous spectrum and that is
the probability distribution. The relative frequencies tend to the probabilities for corresponding
values of the variable for large number of events.

Now given the probability distribution curve, we would like to know about the shape and size of
the curve, some specific quantities that are representative of the character of the event.

For any discrete set of data collection, we measure the central tendency of the data set. We
calculate mean, mean of square and variance.

O  
 ௡೔ !೔  ௡೔ !೔ ௡
7=
 ௡೔
= ൌ  8 ೔ቁ
 ,
ே ே
where ݊ is the frequency of occurrence for event  and we have total frequency, ܰ ൌ  ݊ .



  
 
o     rଵ rଶ r       ଵ  ଶ    
   

!" #9 ൌ ௡ୀଵ r    r ൌ 





$                  %  ݊ଵ 
݊ଶ ݊ &  %       
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O  !"#  
௡೔
á ൌ ೔ ೔ =  8 ቁ ଶ
  ௡ !"
ே ே

$
  
 ௡೔ !೔ 6!7 "
&ar( ) = :ଶ =

 ௡೔ !೔"  ௡೔ !೔ ଶ ௡ ݊ ଶ
= 8 ቁ =  8 ே೔ቁ ଶ
  ; 8 ቁ < .
ܰ
ே ே

" 

 = is square root of the variance.


௡೔
Now for a large number of events each of the ratio in each of the above formulasbecomes the

corresponding probability r :
௡೔
 ՜  r asܰ tends to very large.

Therefore, we write the above quantities in terms of probabilities:

Mean, 9 ൌ 7 ൌ    r
á % ଶr
Mean of Square, 

:ଶ ൌ 

&ariance, =
r  > r ?
  7 
= á
Ç ՜Standard deviation

(

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Now we calculate the above quantities from the following dice throwing experiments.

& 'Throwing of a
 
 :

1 2 3 4 5 6 Total

r 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1

r 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6 21/6



r 1/6 4/6 9/6 16/6 25/6 36/6 91/6


ଶଵ
From the table, we can calculate mean, 7ൌ ൌ 3ͷand

ଽଵ
variance, : ଶ ൌ   
 ଶ ؆ 3@

If we plot r against , we obtain the probability distribution for this case. This distribution is
uninteresting as we can check that the probabilities for all values of are same! The curve
obtained by joining the points will be a horizontal straight line.




Now we do this similar experiment with taking two dice.

& '()*+
 ,
We look for the value of which is the sum of two numbers on thetop faces of the two dice.
Here we shall have    ൌ  possible combinations of events and can have a minimum
value,    ൌ and maximum value,   ൌ  .

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total

r 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36 1

r 2/36 6/36 12/36 20/36 30/36 42/36 40/36 36/36 30/36 22/36 12/36 252/36


r 4/36 18/36 48/36 100/36 180/36 294/36 320/36 324/36 300/36 242/36 144/36 1974/36

)

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ଶହଶ ଵଽ଻ସ
Mean, 7 ൌ ൌ ͹, &ariance, : ଶ ൌ  ͹ଶ ൌ ͷ3A  @ ؆ ͷ3A
଺ ଺

Now if we plot r against taking from above table, we get an interesting symmetric
distribution around a peak! The peak is at ൌ ͹ (mean value).






We can go on doing such experiment 3 or more dice together and ask for the sum of values
occurring on all the dice together and calculate the corresponding probabilities as above. We can
realize that the distribution would be smoother retaining the symmetry with the peak value at the
mean.
In fact, the envelope of the probability values at different (joining the top of the height bars) of
the discrete distribution will slowly assume a continuous symmetric curve!
In the limit of large number of events obtained from the large number of dice throwing together,
we tend to get a continuous bell shaped symmetric distribution.
This is normal distribution.










              
  
  + z  
 


For any naturally occurring event, for any random measurement of any value in any experiment,
the distribution that occurs is p&

- 
 The bell shaped symmetric curve is called
Normal curve. If we calculate the height distribution or age distribution among a population, the
probability distribution turns out to be Normal. The name µnormal¶ is given as it occurs
normally.

*

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À 

 à   

„Y Symmetric about mean
(mean at the centre or at peak position)
„Y Approximate are  under the curve:
A = 68%, 7  :   7  :
[within one standard deviation (: from the mean ( 7 on both sides]
A = 95%, 7  :   7  :
A = 99.7%, 7  :   7  :






       


r ൌ
"
ଶఙ "
 6!6B
,(1)
ξଶగఙ
where 9 ൌ mean, : = standard deviation. The above expression is symmetric around the mean,
ൌ 9.
[The value of the exponential,  ؆ 3͹ 3]

„Y Normal distributions are often referred by the symbol: ܰ9ǡ :

The total area under the curve,


 9
:  = 1.
 ൌ 65
E5
C D:

!6B
If we put ൌ ‫ݖ‬, we get

E5
 ‫
ݖ‬ E5
ൌන  ‫ ݖ‬ൌ න r‫ ݖ ݖ‬ൌ 
65 C D 65

Thus we can write, the rescaled probability,



r ‫ ݖ‬ൌ
"

 6F (2)
ξଶగ
Now the above is a symmetric distribution around ‫ ݖ‬ൌ .

So the Normal distribution (1) has become a µ“ 



- 
 ´ in (2). This is nothing but a
normal distribution with mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1.

,

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We have to remember that the area under the curve between values of ‫ݖ‬gives us the total
probability:

ݖ  ݖ‬
Area = ‫ݖ‬ଵ ǡ ‫ݖ‬ଶ ൌ ‫ ݖ‬  ‫ݖ‬.
 C D

Now instead of actually doing the integration over ‫ݖ‬, we are supplied with the ࢠ  and we
find the area under the curve (hence the total probability) between two limits from the table.
(See the z-score table.)

z 

    


 
 


 
   




„Y 

(Total area under the curve = 1,





„Y 

(Area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and λ is 0.5 or area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and λ is 0.5 because of
symmetry)

„Y 

(Area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and any other value ‫ݖ‬ଵ )

„Y 

(Area between two positive values of ‫ ݖ‬or between two negative values)






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„Y 

(Area between a negative value and a positive value)





„Y 

(Area less than a negative or greater than a positive value)

o 
In the z-score table we always look for the area between zero and any other value (as the integral
is actually done that way). So, zero isalways the reference point.
Finally, the area between any two values of ‫ ݖ‬is obtained by adding or subtracting the scores
involving zero. This will be clear from the following examples.

& (Follow the z-score table,



'In the Geography examination, the marks distribution is known to be Normal where the mean
is52 and the standard deviation is 15. Determine the z-scores of students receiving marks: (i) 40,
(ii) 95, (iii) 52.
" 
 : Here, 9 ൌ 7 ൌ ͷ , : ൌ ͷ
ସ଴6ହଶ
(i) ‫ ݖ‬ൌ ൌ ൌ  3A
!6!7
ఙ ଵହ
ଽହ6ହଶ
(ii)‫ ݖ‬ൌ  ൌ 3A͹
ଵହ
ହଶ6ହଶ
(iii)‫ ݖ‬ൌ  ൌ 3
ଵହ
So, we see the z-scores can be negative, positive or zero.

'Find the area under the normal curve in each of the following cases:

(i)Y ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3


Area = 0.0349 from table. 


(ii)Y ‫ ݖ‬ൌ  3A and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ


Area = 0.2518 

(Note: The area is equal to the area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3A as the curve is symmetric.)



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(iii)Y Area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ  3 and 2.21

      


Area = (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and 2.21) + (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and -0.46)
= 0.4856 + 0.1772 = 0.6637

(Note: The areas are added as they are on both sides of ‫ ݖ‬ൌ .)

(iv)Y Area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3A and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3@






Required area = (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and 1.94) G (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and 0.81)
= 0.4738 G 0.2910 = 0.1828

(Note: There is the subtraction as the two areas are on the same side of ‫ ݖ‬ൌ .)

(v)Y To the left of ‫ ݖ‬ൌ  3




 Required area = 0.5 ± (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3)
= 0.5 ± 0.2257 = 0.2743
(vi)Y To the right of ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3 A





 Required area = (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3 A) + 0.5
= (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3 A) + 0.5
= 0.3997 + 0.5 = 0.8997



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' Among 1000 students, the mean score in the final examination is 25 and the standard
deviation is 4.0. Assume the distribution is Normal. Find the following.
(a)Y How many students score between 22 and 27?
7 =25, : = 4.0
ଶଶ6ଶହ ଶ଻6ଶହ
‫ݖ ׵‬ଵ ൌ ൌ ൌ  3͹ͷ, ‫ݖ‬ଶ ൌ ൌ 3ͷ
!6!7
ఙ ସ3଴ ସ3଴





So the probability is the area under the curve between -0.75 and 0.5
= (area between 0 and -0.75) + (area between 0 and 0.5)
= 0.2734 + 0.1915 = 0.4649
‫ ׵‬The number of students in this marks range =   3@ ൌ 3@ ؆ ͷ
(b)YHow many students score above 30?
  ͷ
‫ ݖ‬ൌ ൌ 3 ͷ
3




Àrobability = area right to ‫ ݖ‬ൌ 3 ͷ


= 3ͷ  (area between 0 and 1.25)
= 0.5 ± 0.3944 = 0.1056
‫ ׵‬The number of students =   3 ͷ ൌ  ͷ3 ؆  

(c)Y How many students score below 15?


ͷ  ͷ
‫ݖ‬ൌ ൌ  3ͷ
3
 




Area = 0.5 ± (area between ‫ ݖ‬ൌ and -2.5) = 0.5 ± 0.4938 = 0.0062
The number of students =   3  ൌ 3  ؆ 
(d)YHow many score 24?
Here we have to calculate area between 23.5 and 24.5.
ଶ3ହ6ଶହ ଶସ3ହ6ଶହ
‫ݖ‬ଵ ൌ ൌ  3͹ͷ ؆  3A, ‫ݖ‬ଶ ൌ ൌ  3 ͷ ؆  3
ସ3଴ ସ3଴
Area between  3͹ͷ and  3 ͷ
= (area between 0 and  3A) + (area between 0 and  3
= 0.1480 ± 0.0517 = 0.0963



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‫ ׵‬The number of students =   3 @ ൌ @3 ؆ @.









 à   



We have seen that a Normal distribution is symmetric around its peak (most probable value or
the value for which the probability is the highest). In a symmetric distribution the mean, median
and mode are at the same position.
The 

 is any deviation from symmetry or we can say, lack of symmetry.

 ௡6

aa 
× a

 =
௡ ௡

The above coefficient can be positive or negative. Below are the two figures demonstrating the
negative and positive skewness: the distributions are correspondingly called negative skewed and
positively skewed distributions.


 


(Negative Skewness: Mean < Mode) (Àositive Skewness: Mean > Mode)

For a symmetric distribution, skewness is zero.

p The distribution we are discussing is a unimodal distribution that means a distribution
which has a single mode or one peak. But in many practical cases, we can have a distribution
with many peaks or many modes. For example, a distribution with two peaks (in fig.) is called a
   ×



 

(f   ×)



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z  ! 

¦      
  
      
     -
    .-
     
   ./     %         
       





¦ v ൌ  K 
„Y O #v ൌ 7  K 
„Y & #Jv ൌ J  K ൌ J 
 
¦ v ൌ   K

„Y O #v ൌ  7  K  
„Y & #Jv ൌ J  K ൌ  ଶ J 
„Y o       K   


¦ ‫ ݖ‬ൌ   Kv


„Y O #‫ݖ‬7 ൌ  7  Kv 

„Y & #J‫ ݖ‬ൌ  ଶ J  K ଶ Jv 

„Y o   v   
     Kv 
  
 


Following combination rules in the above box, we can solve the following problem.

& 
The weight of individual people follows Normal distribution, ܰǡ ͷ . What will be the
probability distribution of weight of 10 people taking together?
× Here, mean  ൌ , : ൌ ͷ .
Mean weight of 10 people, H I ൌ  ଶ    
ଵ +  ଵ଴ =    = 40

&ariance, J H ൌ J ଵ  J ଶ «+Jଵ଴ =   ͷ = 500
  



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‫ ׵‬The probability distribution of weight of 10 people taking together, ܲH ൌ ܰ ǡ ͷ .












 

 

  
 
On the basis of sample information, we make certain decisions about the population. In taking
such decisions we make certain assumptions. These assumptions are known as  
  

tp A collected set of data points which is a part of the population (a few number of data) is
called a 
. The process of selection is called ×. When all the data are considered for
a study, this is called    ×.]


 
 
Assuming the hypothesis correct, we calculate the probability of getting the observed sample. If
this probability is less than a certain assigned value, the hypothesis is 


.
If there is no significant difference between the observed value and the expected value, the
hypothesis is called p .
.


  

The testswhich enable us to decide whether to accept or to reject the null hypothesis are called
the tests of significance. If the differences between the sample values and the population values
are significantly large it is to be rejected.





(

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
  

Let ଵ ǡ ଶ ǡ  ǥ ǥ ௡ be the elements of a set of data from a random sampling. The sampling is
drawn from a population that is assumed to obey Normal distribution.
Let
9 = the actual mean of the distribution,
7 = the sample mean.

A parameter LML is calculated as following:


!7 6B
Mൌ ,

ξ௡
!6!7 "
where : ଶ ൌ and ݊ ൌ sample size.
௡6ଵ

& 

Q. The average life span of a citizen of India is 70. The average value obtained from a sample of
100 people is 75. The standard deviation is 40. Find if the claim is accepted using the level of
significance of 0.05.
×
Here 7 ൌ ͹ͷ, 9 ൌ ͹ , ݊ ൌ  , : ൌ 
͹ͷ͹ ହ
‫׵‬Mൌ = ൌ 3 ͷ.

ξ ସ
Now at the level of significance 0.05, we know (from the standard value) M ൌ 3@3
‫ ׵‬The calculated value of M< the tabular value of t [ 3 ͷ ൏ 3@ ]
Thus the claim is accepted within 5% level of significance.

x        

Here we evaluate the following quantity:


NO 6NP "
éଶ ൌ  ,
NP

݂ை ՜ Observed frequency
݂ ՜ Expected frequency

)

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Now let us define another parameter called, µdegree of freedom¶.


+  !! &%No. of independent observations
= No. of observations ± No. of independent constraints.
In practical calculations, we often estimate the degree of freedom from the number of columns
(\ and number of rows ( in a data table.
Degree of freedom =    \  


& 
Q. Given are the amounts of rainfall(in mm.) on different days in a week. Check if the rainfall is
uniformly distributed over the week.
Given that the é ଶ is significant at 5, 6, 7 degrees of freedom are respectively 11.07, 12.59, 14.07
at the 5% level of significance.

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Rain fall 14 16 8 12 11 9 14
(in mm.)

    A      @   A
݂ ൌ ൌ ൌ 
͹ ͹
If the distribution is to be uniform the expected frequency has to be ݂ ൌ  .
ଵସ6ଵଶ " ଵ଺6ଵଶ " Q6ଵଶ " ଵଶ6ଵଶ " ଵଵ6ଵଶ " ଽ6ଵଶ " ଵସ6ଵଶ "
éଶ ൌ       = 4.17
ଵଶ ଵଶ ଵଶ ଵଶ ଵଶ ଵଶ ଵଶ

Here the degrees of freedom =     ͹   ൌ  and the tabulated value é ଶ ଴3଴ହ for 6
degrees of freedom is 12.59.
As the calculated value 4.17 < 12.59, we can accept the claim.
We then say p   
.

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