Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

U.S. Foreign Policy Under
President Biden
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 11, 2020

We are preparing a report about how a Biden win will affect U.S. foreign policy with
respect to Vietnam, China and the EU. We request your assessment of the following
issues?

Q1. How do you think Biden's win will affect U.S. foreign policy with respect to
Vietnam?

ANSWER: There will be continuity in the Biden Administration’s policy towards

Vietnam because the framework for a comprehensive partnership is already in place.
It was negotiated when Barack Obama was president and enhanced by President
Trump. The major change in the relationship is that threats of tariffs and sanctions by
the United States Trade Representative and the U.S. Treasury will cease to be a major
irritant in bilateral relations. The Biden Administration will engage with Vietnam to
address its concerns over market access for American companies, and protection of
U.S. intellectual property. The two sides will engage in constructive negotiations to
address the concerns of both sides. Vietnam has already signaled it is willing to commit
to long-term purchases of U.S. LNG and U.S. investment in its energy sector worth
billions of dollars annually.

Q2. How will Biden's win affect the US relationship with China?

ANSWER: There is bipartisan agreement in the United States that China is a strategic
competitor and that the U.S. has legitimate grievances over unfair Chinese trade
practices, such as forced transfer of intellectual property rights, theft of U.S.
intellectual property and government subsidies to state-owned enterprises, that need
to be addressed. Current tensions will continue until these issues are addressed.

Q3. If Biden wins, where do you think the tension currently exists between U.S. and
China will lead to?

ANSWER: The Biden Administration will continue to push back against Chinese
bullying and intimidation against littoral and claimant states in the South China Sea.
 2

The U.S. will continue to conduct Freedom of Navigation Operational Patrols, and
unilateral and multilateral naval exercises.

But the Biden Administration will drop the excessive anti-China rhetoric of President
Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Q4. How do you think US foreign policy toward the EU will be affected by a Biden win?

ANSWER: Relations between the U.S. and the EU will improve markedly. Biden is a
TransAtlanticist and firm believer in multilateralism. Trade will cease to be the tip of
the U.S. spear aimed at Europe; it will be replaced by structured dialogue to deal with
irritants.

Q5. Is there anything else you would like to add about the results of the U.S. election?

ANSWER: The legacy of Donald Trump’s populism will hang over the Biden
Administration for years to come and complicate if not restrict his ability to alter U.S.
policies from confrontation and unpredictability to cooperation and predictability. For
example, a Republican controlled Senate could scuttle any attempt by Biden to rejoin
Europe and reinstate the Iran nuclear deal brokered under President Obama.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “U.S. Foreign Policy Under President Biden,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 11, 2020. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.