Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Implications of a Biden
Presidency for Southeast Asia
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 12, 2020

We are preparing a report on regional reactions to the U.S. election 2020 and request
your analytical input into the following issues and questions:
Q1. What would a Biden presidency mean to ASEAN, particularly Vietnam and the
Philippines, given U.S-China. tensions simmering in the region?
ANSWER: In 2019, Congress passed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (2019). The
Biden Administration is more likely to comply with this law than the Trump
Administration. For example, ARIA calls on the Administration to engage with ASEAN
as the premier “problem-solving regional architecture” and supports U.S. participation
in the East Asia Summit.
A Biden Administration would eschew the unilateralism of the Trump Administration
and embrace multilateralism. This would mean continuing to engage with ASEAN and
ASEAN-led mechanisms. Differences on various issues would be viewed as normal and
something to be managed.
President-elect Biden has already proclaimed “we’re back!” meaning that top U.S.
officials will turn up for high-level meetings with their ASEAN counterparts. President
Biden is very likely to attend the East Asia Summit and the ASEAN-U.S. Leaders’
Summit.
A Biden Administration would conduct its relations with Vietnam within the
framework of the 2013 comprehensive partnership negotiated when Obama was
President and continue to enhance the comprehensive partnership as agreed by the
Trump Administration and Vietnam. The Biden Administration would continue to view
Vietnam as a constructive partner in regional security.
Trade and related issues would be remain a major concern for both parties but would
be managed constructively under the Action Plan to resolve the trade imbalance
under the Trump Administration. It is likely that the U.S. and Vietnam will reset their
economic relationship so it is less confrontational. During Secretary Pompeo’s recent
visit to Hanoi several American companies signed agreements with Vietnamese
counterparts to cooperate in developing Vietnam’s energy sector and the sale of LNG
worth billions of dollars a year.
A Biden Administration would create the opportunity for the U.S. and the Philippines
to reset their bilateral relations. In many respects the ball is in President Duterte’s
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court. He must extend the suspension of his decision to terminate the Visiting Forces
Agreement for the two sides to begin the reset process. A Biden Administration will
not go back on the Trump Administration’s declaration that the South China Sea is part
of the Pacific/Pacific Area as far as its obligations go under the 1951 Mutual Defense
Treaty.
Q2. Among ASEAN members, which would benefit the most and which would benefit
the least politically and economically from the Biden presidency?
ANSWER: A Biden Administration would be more compliant with U.S. law as passed
by the Congress such as the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act 2019. ARIA sets new U.S.
priorities and initiatives in the Indo-Pacific, particularly the promotion of democracy,
civil society, human rights, rule of law, transparency, accountability and cooperation
to combat cyber security threats.
ARIA mandates annual reports by the U.S. Government and its agencies in four areas
related to Southeast Asia: counter-terrorism, engagement with the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, participation in the Lower Mekong Initiative [now the
Mekong-U.S. Partnership], and human rights.
ARIA mandates that the Administration develop a strategy to promote human rights,
democracy and good governance and place these American values and the rule of law
at the heart of U.S. diplomacy.
The benefits of a Biden Administration will vary from country to country and depend
on the specific political and economic issues concerned. For example, ARIA expresses
concern about the rule of law and civil liberties in four Southeast Asian countries –
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam – and “unacceptable human rights
developments” in Myanmar and the Philippines. ARIA also restricts the use of U.S.
funds for specific programs in the Philippines and Myanmar.
Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia are likely to form top tier of countries
benefitting the most from a Biden Administration, followed by Brunei, the Philippines
and Thailand in the second tier, and Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar in the bottom third
tier.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Implications of a Biden Presidency for

Southeast Asia,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 12, 2020. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.