Indonesia

20
45
Sovereign, Progressive,
Just and Prosperous
Drafts of Indonesia’s Vision and Dream 2015 – 2085 INDONESIA
To accelerate the manifestation of Indonesia’s vision, President Joko Widodo initiates
Indonesia’s Dream 2015-2085
2045

Protecting all Indonesian citizen and

the whole homeland of Indonesia

Improving public welfare

Educating citizen’s life

Implementing world order based on

independence, eternal peace, and
social justice

2
 Global Demography Middle Income Class INDONESIA
World population becomes 9.45 billion (Asia 55%).
Global demographic trend promotes urbanization.
migration influx. and ageing population.
The proportion of middle and upper
income class exceeds 84% or 8.1 billion
people. which is dominated by Asia and
Latin America.
2045
World Urbanization Natural Resources Competition
66 percent of world population lives in The increase of Asian economy and African
cities with 95% increase happening in population triggers competition to obtain
emerging economies. natural resources. Technological advancement
increase the efficiency of natural resources
exploitation.

Emerging Economies Role Technology

Total developing countries output accounts Global Technological change trend is dominated
for 71% of world output with Asia as the Megatrend by ICT. biotechnology and genetic
biggest stimulant of 54%.
2045 engineering. wearable devices. renewable
energy. automatization. and artificial
intelligence.

International Trade Climate Change

Global trade grows at 3.4% annually. The challenge of global warming increases
Developing countries become the global (more frequent extreme weather condition
trade and investment axis with 6% growth and long-term climate change). Global
per year. temperature increases 3-3.5% without
initiative to reduce emission.
International Finance Geopolitical Change
Domination of world currency shifts from US Dollars to The increase of China’s role. Middle East’s
multi currency. Emerging economies financial assets vulnerability. and the increase of new class and
projected to exceed developed countries. determining group. 3

Indonesian citizens are excellent,
cultured, and expert in science tech
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND
MASTERY OF SCIENCE & TECH
Impartial Acceleration of
Indonesian Citizen’s
Education
Increased Role of Culture in
Development
Increased Contribution of
Science and Technology in
Development
Increased Community’s
Health Level and Life
Quality
Workforce Reform
INDONESIA
2045
Progressive and Inclusive and equitable Democratic, powerful, and
sustainable economy development virtuous country
Development Pillar of Indonesia 2045
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL RESILIENCE AND
DEVELOPMENT GOVERNANCE
Increase Investment and
Economic Substantial Democracy
Competitiveness Acceleration o f Poverty
Eradication
Acceleration of Industrial
and Tourism Dev Institutional and
Equal Opportunity and Bureaucratic Reform
Maritime Economic
Equitable Distribution of
Development
Income Enhanced National Justice
Reinforced Food System and Anti-Corruption
Security and Farmer’s
Welfare Equitable Regional
Development Free and Active Foreign
Strengthened Energy and Politics
Water Security Integrated and Equitable
Infrastructure Free and Active Foreign
KCommitment
Development Politics
Towards the
Environment 4
 INDONESIA
Towards High Income Country and
One of the Highest GDP in the world 2045
Baseline Scenario High Scenario
Business-As-Usual

5.1 % annual GDP growth 5.7 % annual GDP growth

USD 19,794 GDP per capita in 2045 USD 23,199 GDP per capita in 2045
Ranked 8 th in the world for GDP Ranked 7 th in the world for GDP
Escape from Middle-Income Trap in 2038 Escape from Middle-Income Trap in 2036

Low world economic growth or global Well-implemented structural reformation

crisis that has great effect on national and world economic growth is relatively
economy high

5
 High Economic Growth Scenario INDONESIA
High-Income Country in 2036 and the 7 th Highest GDP in the world in 2045
Middle-Income Class Increases to 70 percent in 2045
2045
GDP per capita (USD) 2036 Indonesia’s Middle-Income Class (million people)
Escape from 23,199
Middle-Income Trap
96
16,877 126

151
12,233
186 223
194
8,804 187
6,305 145
4,546 85
3,377
45

2010 2020 2030 2040 2045

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Middle-Income Class Other Income Class

6
 2045 2045 INDONESIA
2010 (SP 2010) (SUPAS 2015) Demography and Urbanization
2045
238.5 million Population 318.7 million 318.9 million

Dependency ratio reaches its lowest level in around 2030. In the

69.8 year Life Expectancy
72.8 year 75.5 year long-term, TFR is maintained to be balance in around 2.1.

11.9 million Senior Citizen (65+) 42.8 million 44.9 million Population growth triggers urbanization and the growth of
small-and-middle-sized cities throughout Indonesia. Meanwhile
49.9% Urban Population 69.1% 72.8% big cities and pre-urban area will create mega-urban.

60
Lowest dependency ratio
around 2030 (SP 2010) and 2022 (SUPAS 2015)
55 53.4
50.5 51.3 90%
50 48.6 49.0
47.7 47.2 46.9 50.1
47.0 47.3 48.4
45 46.3
45.5 45.7

40

35
In 2035, almost 90% population in Java lives in the city,
30 concentrated in Jakarta-Bandung (up to 76 million people)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
= Projection based on SP 2010
= Projection based on SUPAS 2015 7
 INDONESIA
Technology Development
Technology is growing faster and bringing changes to all areas
2045
E-commerce turns conventional trade into electronic system.
of development and people's Industry 4.0 integrates production processes virtually based
on cyber and artificial intelligent..
Future technology trends: digital technology (mobile Blockchain, a combination of AI, big data and IoT, is able to
internet, automation, cloud technology), technology that verify real time financial transactions so that no third parties
reduces physical and distance limitations (IoT, are needed.
transportation and distribution, addictive manufacturing /
3D printing, nano technology), energy technology
(renewable, solar, wind, nuclear, bio, geo-thermal) and health
technologies (genetics, medicine and recovery, health
services).

Besides increasing efficiency and new

opportunities, technological advances have
an impact on labor requirements. Jobs that
are routine, manual, and cognitive will
decrease.

Indonesia will utilize technological progress

for development by minimizing disruption.

8
 I
Human Development and Mastery of
Science and Technology

Indonesian citizen’s quality increases through

equally higher level of education; powerful
culture; better level of health, life-expectancy, and
living quality; and advancement of science and
technology.
INDONESIA
2045
 INDONESIA
Accelerating Equitable Education for All
2045
Increasing Education Quality
2015 2016-2025 2026-2035 2036-2045

Enhancement of citizen’s Years of Schooling 8.3 10 12 12

Year Year Year Year
education level to create high
Gross Enrollment Ratio
quality human resources (GER) in Tertiary Education 29.9% 35% 50% 60%
Labor Force with  Senior
High School Education
37.7% 50% 70% 90%

Education Development Strategy

Equal Quality and Community’s Role in Teacher Professionalism and School and Vocational,
Services in Education Educational Development Learning Methods Transformation Literacy Culture Entrepreneurship, and
Character Education

10
Increased Role of Culture in INDONESIA
Development 2045
Pancasila as Life Appreciation of
Philosophy of the Nation Diversity

Increasing role of culture in

development through the Culture
capitalization of virtuous values of Development
the nation’s culture and the Target
Local Culture – Powerful Nation’s
development of work ethic Regional Identity Character

Education as Maritime Culture

Intercultural Mediator and Knowledge
11
 INDONESIA
Increased Contribution of Science and Technology
in Development 2045
Indonesia is directed towards one of 2015 2045
Gross Expenditure
science development center in Asia
and in the world, especially in Maritime
Studies, Biodiversity Studies, Material
0.08% On R&D 1.5-2%
Technology, and Disaster and Mitigation
Studies.

Science and Technology Innovation Fund

Adoption and Development
Science and Technology Implementation
Strategy
Cooperation between
Science and Technology
Government, Industry, and
Capability and Independence
University
12
 INDONESIA
Increased Community’s Health
Level and Life Quality 2045

• Free from Nutrient Deficiencies Comprehension of

from 2025. Health Healthy Lifestyle
Technology Behavior
• Longer Life Expectancy Advancement
accompanied with healthier life.
• Number of illness, disability, and Responsive Disease
mortality because of illness Facility and National Prevention and Control
decreases. Health Insurance are in
Order and Sustainable

Health Development Strategy

13
 INDONESIA
Workforce Reform
2045
2015 2045
• Changes in economic structure and technological
progress affect the structure of the workforce. Labor Force Participation Rate 65.8% 78%
Male 82.7% 90%
• The labor market needs to be flexible and adaptive.
Female 48.9% 65%
• Labor productivity is improved and technological Labor Force (millions people) 122.4 169.9
progress is utilized to accelerate economic Open Unemployment Rate 6.2% 3 – 4%
development Employment in Agriculture 32.9% 13.5%
• Unemployment is maintained on natural rate (3-4%). Labor Force with Tertiary Education 39.3% 90%

01 02 03

2016 - 2025 2026 - 2035 2036 - 2045

Reformation towards more flexible
Stages of and adaptive labor market.
Workforce Reform
Increased quality of labor
education and training through
relevance enhancement with
industrial needs.
Institutional empowerment and
competency-based education and
training access expansion.
Relevance enhancement, especially
in engineering and technology.
Consolidation of training and
certification system in all
economic sector.
Universal expansion of National
Social Security System (SJSN)
scope.

14
 II
Sustainable Economic Development
Indonesia becomes a developed country and one of the
world’s largest economy, driven by investment and trade,
industry, tourism, maritime, and services; as well as
supported by reliable infrastructure and strong resilience
on food, water, and energy. Commitment towards the
environment is maintained for sustainable development.

INDONESIA
2045
 INDONESIA
Improved Investment Climate
Investment climate is increased towards one of the best in the world 2045
Enhancement of Labour- EoDB ranking 35

2015 - 2025
Intensive, Export-oriented, and Investment to GDP ratio
High Value-added Sectors
34.1 percent

Investment Acceleration on EoDB ranking 20

2025 – 2035
Advanced Technology and Investment to GDP ratio
Highly Innovative Sectors
36.1 percent

Sustainable Investment EoDB ranking 10

2035 – 2045
and Ensuring Security on Investment to GDP ratio
Investment Abroad
37.8 percent
16
 INDONESIA
Industry as the Driver for Economic Growth
2045
Industrial modernization focused on resource-
based manufacturing industry cluster and
industrial zone with integrated upstream-
downstream supply and value chain. Industry is
encouraged to be part of the global value chain
(GVC).
Priorities of industry: food and beverage,
textiles and apparel, automotive, electronics,
and chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
Implementation of smart and sustainable
manufacturing to boost national industry
efficiency.
Industrial revolutions to 4.0 are adjusted with
the characteristics of each industry.
Industry to GDP 20.8% 21.4% 22,3% 23.4% 24.6% 26.0%
ratio GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP
Enhancing Diversification Strengthening Reinforcing Enhancing Enhancing
Industrial and Increasing the Advanced Innovation Industrial Industrial
Development Pillar Value Added Manufacturing Ecosystem Adaptation Sustainability
(2020) (2025) (2030) (2035) (2040) (2045) 17
 INDONESIA
Development of Creative and Digital Economy
Increasing creative and digital economy contribution in development 2045
Enhancement of
Development of Creative World-scale Creative
Human Resource’s Increased Scale of and Digital City/Cluster
Target of Creative and Digital Competence Export-oriented
Economy’s Development Creative Industry

Creative and Digital Economy

2025 as Sources of Economic Growth

Creative and Digital Economy

2035 as Drivers of Innovation-based
Economy

Indonesia as One of the

2045 World-class Creative and Digital Enhancement of the
Economy Centers Structure of Creative
and Digital Economy

18
 Indonesia as Primary Tourism Destination INDONESIA
Indonesia’s diversity that includes more than 17 thousand islands, more than 300 ethnic groups, more than 700
languages, world heritage sites, as well as the 3 rd biggest biodiversity is a great potential for tourism development
2045
Total
International
Tourists
Development of 2020
Prime Destination 21.6 millions

Increasing 2025
Competitiveness 31.8 millions

Improving 2030
Tourism Diversity 42.8 millions

Increasing Tourism 2035

Integration 57.5 millions

Enhancement as
Asia’s Primary
2040
65.1 millions
Destination

Enhancement as
2045
World’s Primary 73.6 millions
Destination
19
 INDONESIA
Indonesia towards the World’s Maritime Axis
2045
Indonesia is moving towards world’s maritime axis by developing accelerated maritime economy, strong
maritime power, and strong maritime culture. The contribution of maritime economy to GDP increases from
6.4% in 2015 to 12.5% in 2045.

Maritime Development Strategy

Maritime Economy: Increasing

Maritime Power: Actualizing strong
and capable maritime security and
defense to face regional and global
challenge.
the role of maritime economy to
12.5% of GDP
around 12.5% of GDP in 2045 by
focusing on (1) the development
of efficient and effective marine
connectivity, (2) sustainable and
competitive fishing
industrialization, and (3)
inclusive maritime tourism.
9.0% of GDP
Maritime Culture: Creating
excellent quality of maritime
human resources. innovation in
marine technology. and strong
maritime culture as the basis of
maritime culture. Contribution
6.4% of GDP of Maritime
Sector 20
 INDONESIA
Consolidation of Food Security and
Increasing Farmer’s Welfare
Increased Education Center
2045
and Agriculture Technology
Integrative Policy from
Upstream to Downstream

Food security that is

independent and
sustainable, carbohydrate
and protein self-sufficient,
and increased farmer’s
welfare
Increased Productivity and
Development of Maritime
Agriculture

Farmer productivity in 2045

increased to 4.5 fold
compared to 2015

Increased the Education

of Agriculture Human Increased Entrepreneurship
Resources and Farmers and Farmer’s Institution

Increased Investment and Infrastructure

that Supports Agriculture 21
 INDONESIA
Open and Just International Trade
2045
1.5% Enhancement of Export Regulation
Market Share
2025

World Rank Transformation of Export Structure from

16th Commodity to Manufacture and Service

1.7% Acceleration of Export Growth

Market Share
2035

Export of Goods and Services

World Rank
with High Value-Added
13th

2.0% Export Enhancement

Market Share
2045

World-quality and Innovation-based

World Rank
Goods and Services
10th

22
 INDONESIA
Enhancement of Water Security
2045
Water security is increased to support strategic sectors, disaster mitigation, and
increase community’s welfare
Forest and land rehabilitation
Integrated and sustainable management along priority river basin area Development of
of lake, swamp, pond, river, and other infrastructure to prevent
land water erosion and
sedimentation
Development of city forest
Development of
water resources
infrastructure
Improvement of land management
along river basin area by involving
the community Implementation of water-use
efficiency principles through
reduce, reuse, and recycle principles
Development of rain water
harvesting

Improvement of hydrology,
hydrometeorology, and
Development of processing and hydrogeology information system
water quality enhancement and development of river basin
technology that is cheap and area and water resources
environment-friendly monitoring system
Campaign of “Keep, Preserve, and Save Water” 23
 INDONESIA
Increased Energy Security
2045
Natural Gas Coal
Renewable Energy Oil
Energy as development assets through
increasing the role of Renewable Energy.
• Share of Renewable Energy final energy demand
CURRENT
CONDITION is increased to 30 percent in 2045.
• Power Plant installed capacity continue to
increase until more than 430 GW.
• Electrification ratio 100 percent in 2020 and
energy consumption is increased to 7,000 kWh
per capita.
• Electrical infrastructure development
implements archipelago concept.
• Fulfillment of energy needs that considers its
impact on environment.
• The possibility of using nuclear energy if other
Bioenergy Water Geothermal Solar Others energy sources do not meet.
24
 INDONESIA
Commitment towards the Environment
2045
Towards green economy, signed by 41% of emission reduction from baseline scenario,
Environmental Quality Index > 80, and sustainable biodiversity utilization.

Greenhouse Gases Biodiversity-based National

Emission Reduction Pharmacy Industry

Increased Water
Quality Carbon Sequestration
Ability

Improvement of
Environment
Land Coverage Quality
Development Strategy Renewable Energy
Development through
Local Bio-resources
Increased
Air Quality

Increase Biomaterial
Industry
Biodiversity as the Basic
Asset of Development

25
III
Equitable Development
Equitable development expands with more
income equality across all income-class,
decreasing regional disparities, equitable
infrastructure, as well as extreme poverty
eradication.

INDONESIA
2045
 INDONESIA
Acceleration of Poverty Eradication
20
2045
• Inclusive economic growth (in all income quintile) brings
18 poverty rate towards zero (0.02 percent) in 2045. Poverty Rate per Province in 2015 and 2045
• Extreme poverty (0.8 poverty line) is zero in 2040.
16
Legend
AdminProvinsi
14 Proyeksi_2045
0.000 - 1.000
1.001 - 2.500
2.501 - 5.000
12
5.001 - 7.500
7.501 - 10.000
10.001 - 15.000
10 15.001 - 20.000
20.001 - 30.000

0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045

Extreme Poverty (0.8 PL) Poor Vulnerable (1.2 PL)

27
 INDONESIA
Income Equality
0,44
2045
0,42

0,4 • Income inequality falls to

ideal level in 2035 and
0,38 maintain at the safe level.

0,36 • Without equal income

policy, Gini Ratio will
0,34 increases towards 0.44 in
2045.
0,32

Scenario with Redistribution Intervention Scenario without Redistribution Intervention

Kutznet’s Hypothesis
Early stage economic development will induce income inequality, but after a certain income level, inequality will decrease
along with democratization and development of citizen’s welfare.

28
 INDONESIA
Equitable Regional Development
Equitable regional development is increased by encouraging growth in the Eastern Region of
2045
Indonesia (KTI) while maintaining growth momentum in Java.

30 Years Before 30 Years After Kalimantan Sulawesi

6.2% 6.7%
PERYEAR PERYEAR
1983 2013 2015 2045
Java 53.8% 57.1% 58.3% 51.8%
Maluku
Outside Java 46.2% 42.9% 41.7% 48.2%
8.3%
KBI 82.5% 80.1% 80.5% 74.9% PERYEAR
KTI 17.5% 19.9% 19.5% 25.1%

Regional Development Direction Sumatra

Papua National Food Basis & Resources-
based Economic Sector
5.7%
PERYEAR
Bali. Nusa Tenggara & International Tourism &
Maluku National Fishery Basis
Sulawesi Food Industry Basis & Gate for KTI Papua

Kalimantan Manufacturing Industry &

Jawa Bali andNusaTenggara
7.6%
National Energy Basis PERYEAR
Java Trade & Services Basis 5.3% 6.5%
PERYEAR
Sumatra New Industrial Basis & Gate PERYEAR
to Asia Region 29

Equitable and Integrated Infrastructure Development
• Finishing main road constructions in all islands.
• Rail-based transportation and High-speed Train to anticipate mega
urban and urbanization.
• Air and sea transportation to support inter-region mobility and
goods distribution.
INDONESIA
2045
• Sea transportation as the main element of maritime connectivity.
• Development of aerotropolis area.
• Fulfillment of digital and virtual connectivity for all community.
• Fulfillment of people’s access to basic infrastructure.
• Logistic cost in 2045 fell to 8% of GDP

Legends
Infrastructure Main Road Aerotropolis
Dam/Water PP
Development Direction: Rail Road
Nuclear PP
Big/Medium City
Airport & Pioneer
Increasing Physical and Kota Pelabuhan
Palapa Ring
Virtual Connectivity

Promoting Equitable
Development between Regions

Fulfilling Basic Infrastructure Access

Supporting Urban and

Rural Development

Anticipation of Climate Change

30
IV
Strengthening National
Resilience and Governance

National resilience and governance

becomes stronger with better quality of
democracy, institutional and bureaucratic
reform, development of national justice
system and anti-corruption,
implementation of free and active

INDONESIA
international politics, and strong security

2045
and defence.
 INDONESIA
Domestic Affairs
2045
Procedural / National Politics
Transactional Enhancement Strategy
Democracy

Enhancing
Political Parties
and Regulations Pancasila
Revitalization
Indonesia’s democracy quality is Capacity
increased towards substantial
democracy, which is democracy Enhancing Democracy
that carries people’s aspiration and Political Participation
in Regions Effective House of
Representative
Enhancing Political
Constitution

Effective Presidential
System
Substantial
Democracy
32

Institutional and Bureaucratic Reform
Bureaucratic
Structure of Organization
Organizational structure
that are:
• Adaptive,
• Based on
issue/thematic,
• Cross-sector,
• People driven and
locally empowered, and
• Responsive towards
international issue.
INDONESIA
2045
Feature Enhancement Institutional and Bureaucratic
Reform to actualize:
a. The role and function of the government
in achieving public interests;
b. Bureaucratic institution that is contextual
and with proper function and size;
Human Resources’
Governance c. Effective, inclusive, participative, and
Culture and
Inclusive governance Management supportive cross-sector governance; and
and ICT-based . • Creative, systemic, and d. Bureaucratic institution that is reliable
evidence-based way of and modern with professional and
thinking that has global adaptive civil servants.
knowledge, inclusive, and
able to manage change;
• High work ethic and
productive; and
• Proactive service based on
public’s needs.
33
 Development of Justice System and INDONESIA
Prevention and Eradication of Corruption 2045
Justice System Development Objective

The integrity and competence Civil servants and Community that

Justice system of law enforcement and civil citizens who are has justice culture
development is directed to servants compliant to law
actualize a community
with justice culture.
In 2045 all laws of colonial
inheritance are replaced
by national law

Prevention and eradication

of corruption directed to
implement anti-corruption
community
System improvement in Significantly decreasing Anti-corruption
various public service corruption practice and community
behavior, CPI=55-60 CPI=60-65

Corruption Prevention and Eradication Objective

34
 INDONESIA
Foreign Affairs
2045

Indonesia is still conducting international

politics that is free and active to build just
world governance, becomes a developed
and independent country, and one of the
most influential country in Asia Pacific.
The implementation of free and
active international politics
International politics is also directed to
implement World Maritime Axis roadmap
and establish regional arrangements
Indonesia’s including maintaining ASEAN’s centrality.
increased role
in regional,
global, OKI, and
UN

35

Defense and Security
Defense and security is Inclusive Community
increased to actualize: Order
a. Inclusive community
order Indonesian identity beyond
b. Strong defense ethnic, tribe, religion, race,
c. Dignified human and group identity.
security Participative community
order based on fairness and
equality in unity and
national insight.
Strong National
Defense
National defense power based
on smart power, which has
expenditure of 1.5% GDP.
Strong military force
equipped with advanced
technology armament.
Defense industry that is
progressive and healthy, as
well as being the main actor
in global supply chain.
INDONESIA
2045
Dignified Human
Security
Safely and peacefully living in
Indonesia as civilized human
based on the spirit of respect
Human security that
integrates with national
security based on
humanitarian values and
partnership with all elements
of the nation.
36