Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Depression
Publication Date: September 2007

Tables and Figures

Tables
Table 1: Common Antidepressant Uses ................................... 3
Table 2: U.S. Prevalence Rates (12 month) ............................. 4
Table 3: U.S. Depression Patient Population Model................... 7
Table 4: U.S. Depression Market Model, 2004-2013 ............... 11
Table 5: U.S. Depression Market Model, 2004-2013 ............... 12
Table 6: Antidepressant Product Differentiation ..................... 16
Table 7: Marketed Generics................................................. 17
Table 8: Major Diabetes Market Trend Drivers ....................... 18
Table 9: Marketed Products................................................. 21
Table 10: Effexor Franchise/venlafaxine – Revenue Model ...... 24
Table 11: Effexor Franchise/venlafaxine – Commercial
Strength............................................................................ 24
Table 12: Effexor XR Additional Indications ........................... 26
Table 13: Lexapro/escitalopram – Revenue Model.................. 27
Table 14: Lexapro/escitalopram – Commercial Strength.......... 27
Table 15: Lexapro Additional Indications............................... 28
Table 16: Cymbalta/duloxetine – Revenue Model ................... 29
Table 17: Cymbalta/duloxetine – Commercial Strength ........... 29
Table 18: Cymbalta Additional Indications............................. 31
Table 19: Wellbutrin Franchise/bupropion – Revenue Model.... 32
Table 20: Wellbutrin Franchise/bupropion – Commercial
Strength............................................................................ 32
Table 21: Wellbutrin Additional Indications............................ 34
Table 22: Wellbutrin XL Additional Indications ....................... 34
Table 23: Wellbutrin SR Additional Indications....................... 34
Table 24: Paxil Franchise/paroxetine – Revenue Model ........... 35
Table 25: Paxil Franchise/paroxetine – Commercial Strength ... 35
Table 26: Paxil Additional Indications ................................... 36
Table 27: Paxil CR Additional Indications .............................. 36
Table 28: Zoloft/sertraline – Revenue Model ......................... 37
Table 29: Zoloft/sertraline – Commercial Strength ................. 37

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Table 30: Zoloft Additional Indications.................................. 38
Table 31: Prozac/fluoxetine – Revenue Model........................ 39
Table 32: Prozac/fluoxetine – Commercial Strength................ 39
Table 33: Prozac Additional Indications................................. 40
Table 34: Celexa/citalopram – Revenue Model....................... 41
Table 35: Celexa/citalopram – Commercial Strength............... 41
Table 36: Celexa Additional Indications................................. 41
Table 37: Gepirone-ER – Revenue Model .............................. 42
Table 38: Gepirone-ER Additional Indications ........................ 43
Table 39: Saredutant/SR 48968 – Revenue Model.................. 44
Table 40: Saredutant Additional Indications .......................... 45
Table 41: Amibegron/SR 58611 – Revenue Model .................. 46
Table 42: Amibegron Additional Indications........................... 47
Table 43: Agomelatine – Revenue Model .............................. 48
Table 44: Agomelatine Additional Indications ........................ 49
Table 45: Pristiq – Revenue Model ....................................... 50
Table 46: Pristiq Additional Indications ................................. 52
Table 47: Vilazodone – Revenue Model................................. 53
Table 48: Vilazodone Additional Indications........................... 54
Table 49: Drugs in Development.......................................... 57

Figures
Figure 1: Depression Progression Chart .................................. 3
Figure 2: AVOS Population Projections by Year ........................ 6
Figure 3: Primary Care Physician Patient Flow ....................... 13
Figure 4: Psychiatrist Patient Flow........................................ 14
Figure 5: Weighted Physician Product Ratings ....................... 18
Figure 6: Psychiatrist versus PCP Product Ratings .................. 18
Figure 7: Timeline of Major Market Events ............................ 23
Figure 8: Effexor Franchise/venlafaxine – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 24
Figure 9: Effexor Franchise/venlafaxine – U.S. Revenue
Forecasts .......................................................................... 24
Figure 10: Lexapro/escitalopram – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 27
Figure 11: Lexapro/escitalopram – U.S. Revenue Forecasts..... 27
Figure 12: Cymbalta/duloxetine – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 29

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Figure 13: Cymbalta/duloxetine – U.S. Revenue Forecass ....... 29
Figure 14: Cymbalta NRx and TRx........................................ 29
Figure 15: Wellbutrin Franchise/bupropion – U.S. Market
Share Forecasts ................................................................. 32
Figure 16: Wellbutrin Franchise/bupropion – U.S. Revenue
Forecasts .......................................................................... 32
Figure 17: Paxil Franchise/paroxetine – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 35
Figure 18: Paxil Franchise/paroxetine – U.S. Revenue
Forecasts .......................................................................... 35
Figure 19: Zoloft/sertraline – U.S. Market Share Forecasts ...... 37
Figure 20: Zoloft/sertraline – U.S. Revenue Forecasts............. 37
Figure 21: Prozac/paroxetine – U.S. Market Share Forecasts ... 39
Figure 22: Prozac/paroxetine – U.S. Revenue Forecasts.......... 39
Figure 23: Celexa/citalopram – U.S. Market Share Forecasts ... 41
Figure 24: Celexa/citalopram – U.S. Revenue Forecasts.......... 41
Figure 25: Gepirone-ER – U.S. Market Share Forecast ............ 42
Figure 26: Gepirone-ER – U.S. Revenue Forecast ................... 42
Figure 27: Saredutant – U.S. Market Share Forecast .............. 44
Figure 28: Saredutant – U.S. Revenue Forecast ..................... 44
Figure 29: Amibegron – U.S. Market Share Forecast............... 46
Figure 30: Amibegron – U.S. Revenue Forecast ..................... 46
Figure 31: Agomelatine – U.S. Market Share Forecast ............ 48
Figure 32: Agomelatine – U.S. Revenue Forecast ................... 48
Figure 33: Pristiq – U.S. Market Share Forecast ..................... 50
Figure 34: Pristiq – U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................ 50
Figure 35: Vilazodone – U.S. Market Share Forecast............... 53
Figure 36: Vilazodone – U.S. Revenue Forecast ..................... 53
Figure 37: Clinical Success Rates of Antidepressant Agents:
1990-Present ..................................................................... 55

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