Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Lipid Modulating Agents

Publication Date: August 2007

Tables and Figures

Tables
Table 1: Lipoprotein Patterns (Fredrickson Phenotypes)............ 4
Table 2: LDL-C Goals by Patient Segment ............................... 5
Table 3: HDL-C Guidelines..................................................... 5
Table 4: Triglyceride Treatment Thresholds............................. 5
Table 5: NHANES Estimates of Cholesterol Percentiles.............. 6
Table 6: Dyslipidemia Patient Population Model ....................... 7
Table 7: U.S. Treated Dyslipidemia Population in Millions .......... 8
Table 8: U.S. Statins Market Model, 2004-2013 ..................... 11
Table 9: U.S. Statins Market Model, 2004-2013 ..................... 12
Table 10: AVOS Physician Panel Market Trend Forecasts ........ 16
Table 11: Marketed Products in the United States .................. 18
Table 12: Lipitor – Revenue Model ....................................... 21
Table 13: Lipitor – Commercial Strength ............................... 21
Table 14: Zetia/Vytorin – Revenue Models ............................ 23
Table 15: Zetia/Vytorin – Commercial Strength...................... 23
Table 16: Crestor – Revenue Model...................................... 26
Table 17: Crestor – Commercial Strength.............................. 26
Table 18: Zocor/simvastatin – Revenue Models ..................... 29
Table 19: Zocor – Commercial Strength ................................ 29
Table 20: Pravachol/pravastatin – Revenue Models ................ 31
Table 21: Pravachol – Commercial Strength .......................... 31
Table 22: Lescol/XL – Revenue Model................................... 33
Table 23: Lescol/XL – Commercial Strength........................... 33
Table 24: TriCor – Revenue Model ....................................... 34
Table 25: TriCor – Commercial Strength ............................... 34
Table 26: Niaspan/Advicor – Revenue Models........................ 36
Table 27: Niaspan/Advicor – Commercial Strength ................. 36
Table 28: Caduet – Revenue Model ...................................... 38
Table 29: Caduet – Commercial Strength .............................. 38
Table 30: Atorvastatin – Revenue Model ............................... 40
Table 31: MK-0524A/MK-0524B – Revenue Models ................ 42

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Table 32: Simcor – Revenue Model ...................................... 44
Table 33: ABT-335/Crestor + ABT-335 – Revenue Models....... 46
Table 34: TAK-475 – Revenue Model .................................... 48
Table 35: Percent Change in LDL/HDL Levels – TAK-475 vs.
Atorvastatin....................................................................... 48
Table 36: Drugs in Development.......................................... 52

Figures
Figure 1: LDL Treated Population and Patient Years of
Therapy .............................................................................. 6
Figure 2: Potency for Major Existing and Pipeline Drugs............ 7
Figure 3: Treatment Decision Tree: Primary Prevention .......... 13
Figure 4: Treatment Decision Tree: Secondary Prevention ...... 14
Figure 5: Physician Product Ratings (Scale of 1-10)................ 15
Figure 6: Timeline of Major Market Events ............................ 19
Figure 7: Lipitor – U.S. Market Share Forecast ....................... 21
Figure 8: Lipitor – U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................. 21
Figure 9: Lipitor Cumulative NRx and TRx Changes ................ 22
Figure 10: Zetia/Vytorin – U.S. Market Share Forecasts .......... 23
Figure 11: Zetia/Vytorin – U.S. Revenue Forecasts ................. 23
Figure 12: Vytorin NRx and TRx ........................................... 23
Figure 13: Crestor – U.S. Market Share Forecast.................... 26
Figure 14: Crestor – U.S. Revenue Forecast .......................... 26
Figure 15: Zocor/simvastatin – U.S. Market Share Forecasts.... 29
Figure 16: Zocor/simvastatin – U.S. Revenue Forecasts .......... 29
Figure 17: Pravachol/pravastatin – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 31
Figure 18: Pravachol/pravastatin – U.S. Revenue Forecasts..... 31
Figure 19: Lescol/XL – U.S. Market Share Forecast................. 33
Figure 20: Lescol/XL – U.S. Revenue Forecast ....................... 33
Figure 21: TriCor – U.S. Market Share Forecast ..................... 34
Figure 22: TriCor – U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................ 34
Figure 23: Niaspan/Advicor – U.S. Market Share Forecasts...... 36
Figure 24: Niaspan/Advicor – U.S. Revenue Forecasts ............ 36
Figure 25: Caduet – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................... 38
Figure 26: Caduet – U.S. Revenue Forecast........................... 38
Figure 27: Atorvastatin – U.S. Market Share Forecast ............. 40
Figure 28: Atorvastatin – U.S. Revenue Forecast.................... 40

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Figure 29: Atorvastatin/Lipitor – U.S. Market Share Forecasts.. 40
Figure 30: Atorvastatin/Lipitor – U.S. Revenue Forecasts ........ 40
Figure 31: MK-0524A/MK-0524B – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 42
Figure 32: MK-0524A/MK-0524B – U.S. Revenue Forecasts ..... 42
Figure 33: Simcor – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................... 44
Figure 34: Simcor – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................... 44
Figure 35: ABT-335/Crestor + ABT-335 – U.S. Market Share
Forecasts .......................................................................... 46
Figure 36: ABT-335/Crestor + ABT-335 – U.S. Revenue
Forecasts .......................................................................... 46
Figure 37: TAK-475 – U.S. Market Share Forecast .................. 48
Figure 38: TAK-475 – U.S. Revenue Forecast ........................ 48
Figure 39: Clinical Success Rates of Lipid Modulating Agents:
1990-Present ..................................................................... 50

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