Therapeutic Market Outlooks

Multiple Sclerosis
Publication Date: July 2008

Tables and Figures

Tables
Table 1: Classification and Description of Multiple
Sclerosis Sub-Types............................................................ 13
Table 2: High-Risk Populations for Developing MS.................. 15
Table 3: AVOS U.S. Multiple Sclerosis Patient Population
Model, 2005—2014E........................................................... 18
Table 4: AVOS U.S. Multiple Sclerosis Market
Model, 2005—2014E........................................................... 20
Table 5: Marketed Products in the United States.................... 33
Table 6: Factors Shaping the Market for Oral Treatments ....... 37
Table 7: Comparison of Key Phase III Pipeline Products
with Avonex ...................................................................... 38
Table 8: Quantitative Assessment of Key Phase III
Pipeline Products Versus Avonex .......................................... 39
Table 9: Top Ten Unmet Medical Needs in MS ....................... 41
Table 10: Five-Year Forecasts of Future Market Trends
for Inline Products: 2008E—2014E ....................................... 42
Table 11: Overview of Inline Products .................................. 43
Table 12: Avonex—Revenue Model ...................................... 44
Table 13: Avonex Commercial Strength ................................ 44
Table 14: Betaseron—Revenue Model................................... 46
Table 15: Betaseron Commercial Strength............................. 46
Table 16: Recent Betaseron Studies ..................................... 47
Table 17: Rebif—Revenue Model.......................................... 48
Table 18: Rebif Commercial Strength ................................... 48
Table 19: Copaxone—Revenue Model ................................... 50
Table 20: Copaxone Commercial Strength............................. 50
Table 21: Tysabri—Revenue Model....................................... 52
Table 22: Tysabri Commercial Strength ................................ 52
Table 23: Risks Threatening Tysabri’s Success....................... 54
Table 24: Novantrone Commercial Strength .......................... 55
Table 25: Extavia—Revenue Model....................................... 56
Table 26: Betaseron Studies Supporting Extavia .................... 57

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Table 27: Cladribine—Revenue Model................................... 58
Table 28: Ongoing Cladribine Clinical Trials ........................... 58
Table 29: FTY720—Revenue Model ...................................... 60
Table 30: Ongoing FTY720 Clinical Trials .............................. 61
Table 31: Campath—Revenue Model .................................... 62
Table 32: Ongoing Campath Clinical Trials ............................ 63
Table 33: Laquinimod—Revenue Model ................................ 64
Table 34: Ongoing Laquinimod Clinical Trials......................... 64
Table 35: Teriflunomide—Revenue Model ............................. 66
Table 36: Drugs In Development ......................................... 71
Table 37: Overview of Inline and Pipeline MS Therapies ......... 74

Figures
Figure 1: U.S. Theoretical Patient Population Breakdown by
Sub-type of Multiple Sclerosis .............................................. 15
Figure 2: AVOS Multiple Sclerosis Population Projections by
Year, 2005—2014E............................................................. 19
Figure 3: The Diagnosis Decision Tree for Multiple Sclerosis .... 24
Figure 4: Treatment Decision Tree: Mild-to-Moderate
Multiple Sclerosis................................................................ 25
Figure 5: Treatment Decision Tree: Aggressive
Multiple Sclerosis................................................................ 26
Figure 6: Product Specific Criteria of the Drug
Selection Process ............................................................... 29
Figure 7: AVOS Physician Panel Product Ratings .................... 30
Figure 8: Timeline of Major Past Multiple Sclerosis
Market Events.................................................................... 34
Figure 9: Estimated Timeline of Major Future Multiple
Sclerosis Market Events ...................................................... 34
Figure 10: Transforming Market Catalysts Shaping the
Future of the MS Market ..................................................... 35
Figure 11: Avonex U.S. Market Share Forecast ...................... 44
Figure 12: Avonex U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................. 44
Figure 13: Betaseron U.S. Market Share Forecast................... 46
Figure 14: Betaseron U.S. Revenue Forecast ......................... 46
Figure 15: Rebif U.S. Market Share Forecast.......................... 48
Figure 16: Rebif U.S. Revenue Forecast ................................ 48
Figure 17: Copaxone U.S. Market Share Forecast................... 50
Figure 18: Copaxone U.S. Revenue Forecast ......................... 50

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Figure 19: Tysabri U.S. Market Share Forecast ...................... 52
Figure 20: Tysabri U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................. 52
Figure 21: Timeline of Tysabri Events ................................... 53
Figure 22: Extavia U.S. Market Share Forecast....................... 56
Figure 23: Extavia U.S. Revenue Forecast ............................. 56
Figure 24: Cladribine U.S. Market Share Forecast................... 58
Figure 25: Cladribine U.S. Revenue Forecast ......................... 58
Figure 26: FTY720 U.S. Market Share Forecast ...................... 60
Figure 27: FTY720 U.S. Revenue Forecast............................. 60
Figure 28: Campath U.S. Market Share Forecast .................... 62
Figure 29: Campath U.S. Revenue Forecast........................... 62
Figure 30: Laquinimod U.S. Market Share Forecast ................ 64
Figure 31: Laquinimod U.S. Revenue Forecast ....................... 64
Figure 32: Teriflunomide U.S. Market Share Forecast ............. 66
Figure 33: Teriflunomide U.S. Revenue Forecast .................... 66
Figure 34: Clinical Success Rates of MS Disease
Modifying Agents: 1995—Present 70

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