Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
211: Statistics for Social Sciences
8 May 2020
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Lecture 3: Today Agenda
1. Review Special Chapter on EViews Database
2. How to create dummy variable?
Can Cambodia benefit from becoming a member of ASEAN?
3. How to develop research questions?
What are the best democratic model for Cambodia?
o Group 1: Political leaders
o Group 2: Senior Management
o Group 3: Normal citizen (50 people) (100 people)
What are the best economic growth model for Cambodia?
What are the best trade model for Cambodia?
4. EViews: How to develop and test Growth Model in EViews
Task 1 Develop: Economic Growth Model for Cambodia
Step 1: Basic Formula
o Y (output) = f(var1, var2, var3, var4) (1)
o GDP = f(N, FDI, HRD, C) (2)
o Log(GDP) = f(N, FDI, HRD, C) (3)
o Log(GDP) = log(N) + log(FDI) + log(HRD) + log(C) +…… e (4)
o Log(GDP) = log(N) + log(FDI) + log(HRD) + log(C) + ASEAN*……e (5)
o Log(GDP) = log(N) + log(FDI) + log(HRD) + log(C) + ASEAN*+ FinCris……e
(6)
o Corruption = poverty + unemployment + tax
Research Questions:
What are the impacts of economic growth in Cambodia?
What are the impacts of N on economic growth in Cambodia?
What are the impacts of FDI on economic growth in Cambodia?
What are the impacts of HRD on economic growth in Cambodia
from 2000 to 2019?
Step 2: Run the Regression in EViews
o When the result of probability < 5% or (0.05), meaning that your variable
is significant or there is a positive relationship between variable N and
variable GDP.
Interpretation 1: based on the result, it shows that there is a
positive relationship between population rate and GDP from 2000
to 2019.
Interpretation 2: The result shows that the population growth
rate effects the growth rate of GDP in Cambodia from 2000 to
2019.
Interpretation 3: This result shows that an increase in N would
help boost our economic growth in Cambodia.
o When the result of probability > 5% or (0.05), meaning that your variable
is not significant or there is a negative relationship between variable N
and variable GDP.
Interpretation (1): based on the result, it shows that there is a
negative relationship between population rate and GDP from
2000 to 2019.
Interpretation (2): The result shows that the population growth
rate does not affect the growth rate of GDP in Cambodia from
2000 to 2019.
Interpretation 3: The result shows that N will not contribute to
economic growth rate in Cambodia from 1997 to 2019.
Step 3: How to test your growth model (Robust Testing)
Option 1:
1. Among the 6 variables, including N, FDI, C, HRD, the results
of the 6 variables show ALL negative. => We can assume
that this model is not workable/valid.
Option 2:
1. Among the 6 variables (70%‐80%), if there are 4‐6
variables which have positive relationships. => We can
assume that our model is valid/workable.
Option 3:
1. R Squared must be more than 70% or 0.70 up => We can
assume our model is valid/workable
Option 4: Preferable than Option 1‐2‐3
1. We need to check Prob(F‐statistics) and it must be less
than 5% or 0.05 => our model is valid/workable
Best Option 5:
1. To run the Residual Diagnostics ‐> Histogram ‐ Normality
test => if the result is more than 5% or 0.05 => our model
is not valid/not workable
2. To Heteteroskedasticity test=> if the result is more than
5% or 0.05 => We can assume that our model is not
valid/not workable
3. To Correlogram Q Test=> if the result is more than 5% or
0.05 => We can assume that our model is not valid/not
workable
Step 4: How can we make our model workable/valid?
o
5. Note:
*Dummy Variable:
o is a numeric variable that represents categorical data, such as gender, race,
political affiliation, etc. It can take on only two quantitative values.
*Statistical model:
o is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions
concerning the generation of sample data.
*Conceptual framework:
o is a structure which the researcher believes can best explain the natural
progression of the phenomenon to be studied (Camp, 2001).
o It is linked with the concepts, empirical research and important theories
used in promoting and systemizing the knowledge espoused by the
researcher (Peshkin, 1993).
6. Individual Assignment
7. Q & A