Update on COVID-19 in Canada:

Epidemiology and Modelling

December 11th, 2020
 Continued rise in national COVID-19 daily case counts
Over 6,500 cases daily,
8 000
On average, past 7 days
7 000

6 000

5 000
Number
of cases 4 000

3 000

2 000

1 000

01Mar 01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

Data as of December 8, 2020

2
 Rapid growth is occurring in several provinces

40
BC AB SK
30

20

10
Number of
0
cases per
100 000 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec
population 40
MB ON QC
30

20

10

0
01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec 01Apr 01Jun 01Aug 01Oct 01Dec

Date of case report

Data as of December 8, 2020

3
 More health regions are reporting higher rates of COVID-19 infection

101 + 49 of 99 health regions

51 to 100 reporting > 100 cases per
26 to 50 100 000 population
16 to 25 (highest: 707 per 100,000)
6 to 15
0 to 5
>0

Data as of December 8, 2020

4
 Nationally, the percentage of people testing positive remains high

Number persons tested Percent positivity

90 000
80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec
Number of people tested Percent positivity
(7-day moving average) (7-day moving average)
Data as of December 8, 2020
Data excluding Alberta because of differences in methods of computation

5
 Escalating incidence among high-risk adults, aged 80 years and older

Number of reported cases per 100 000 Incomplete data,

population (7 day moving average) reporting lag
20
18
80+ years
16
14
12
10 20 to 39 years
8
6 80+ years
4
2
0
01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec
Dateofofillness
Date illnessonset*
onset*
0 to 19 20 to 39 40 to 59 60 to 79 80+

Data as of December 8, 2020 *First available of illness onset, specimen collection, laboratory test date

6
 Increasing number of outbreaks in long term care facilities* with widespread
community transmission

Number of
outbreaks

Data as of December 7, 2020

* Including retirement residences. Data for December not included
7
 Since September, reported COVID-19 cases have been increasing in First Nations
communities
1 800

1 600

1 400

Number 1 200
of
active 1 000
cases
800

600

400

200

0
08Mar 08Apr 08May 08Jun 08Jul 08Aug 08Sep 08Oct 08Nov

Active
Numbercases
of weekly active COVID-19 cases in First Nations communities on-reserve

Data source: Indigenous Services Canada – by episode date

Data as of December 5, 2020
8
 Hospitalizations continue to increase in most provinces west of the Atlantic
region

25

Number of 20
cases in
hospitals 15
per 100 000
population
10

0
01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec

Data as of December 8, 2020

9
 With ongoing rapid epidemic growth, COVID-19 related deaths have been
steadily rising

200

150 Approaching 94 deaths daily

on average, past 7 days
Number
of 100
deaths

50

0
01Mar 01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov 01Dec
Reported deaths 7 day moving average
Data as of December 8, 2020
10
 Short-term forecast indicates continuation of rapid growth

Cumulative cases predicted to December 25: Cumulative deaths predicted to December 25:
531 300 to 577 000 15 000 14 410 to 14 920
550 000

Cumulative number of deaths

14 500
Cumulative number of cases

500 000 14 000

13 500
450 000
13 000
400 000 12 500
12 000
350 000
11 500
200 000 11 000
20Nov 27Nov 04Dec 11Dec 18Dec 25Dec 20Nov 27Nov 04Dec 11Dec 18Dec 25Dec

Cumulatively reported cases in Canada by December 5 Prediction to December 25

Lower 95% prediction limit Upper 95% prediction limit Cases added since December 5 when the prediction was made
Extrapolation based on recent trends using a forecasting model (with ranges of uncertainty)

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 Longer-range forecast shows overall for Canada we remain on a rapid growth
trajectory
• If we maintain the current
number of people we contact
30 000
maintain
each day – the epidemic will
continue to resurge: Grey line

• If we increase the current

number of people we contact
20 000
each day – the epidemic is

increase
forecast to resurge faster and
Reported stronger: Orange line
cases

• If we reduce the current

10 000
number of people we contact
each day to only essential

decrease
activities through combined
individual precautions and
public health measures – the
0h epidemic is forecast to come
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan under control in most locations:
Methods: Anderson SC et al. 2020. Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model
of physical distancing. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086v1
Blue line
12
Combined efforts of Canadians and Public health are needed now and
through the holidays

• Nationally, we remain on a rapid growth

trajectory.

• When we work together to implement and

adhere to more stringent controls, we can
bend the curve

• Safe and effective vaccines are in sight but

our combined efforts are urgently needed
to prevent severe illness and death, and
reduce strain on hospitals and public health
systems Plan Safer Holidays with the Public Health Agency of Canada’s
COVID-19: Plan a safe holiday or celebration planning guide:
• Always layer up with essential public health https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-
infection/guidance-documents/plan-safe-holiday-celebration.html
practices

13
APPENDIX

14
Each new case in Canada is spreading infection to more than one person,
keeping the epidemic in a growth pattern

2
Since mid-August
When Rt is consistently > 1, Canada’s Rt has been
1.5 the epidemic is growing consistently > 1

0.5

Data as of December 7, 2020 Canada’s Rt over time

Calculations are based on date of case report

15
Long-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now to in
all large Provinces to slow the spread of COVID-19

16