Hypothesis Testing

Once you have generated a hypothesis, the process of hypothesis testing

becomes important.

Your hypothesis statement took the form of a prediction or speculation. Once the experiment has
been carried out, you can now assess whether this prediction was correct or not.

You should therefore have two hypotheses, the alternative and the null.

H1 The alternative hypothesis: This is the research hypothesis. It is the scientist’s

speculation/prediction at the heart of the experiment.
H0 The null hypothesis: The is a statement that there is NO significant difference in
groups, or more generally, that there is no association between two groups. In other
words, it is describing an outcome that is the opposite of the research hypothesis.
The original speculation is not supported.
Conventionally, it is good practice to assume that the null hypothesis is correct until proven
otherwise.

This means researchers don’t seek out to accept their research hypothesis, but rather to accept or
reject the null hypothesis first, which then allows them to accept or reject the alternative hypothesis.
Though most research is conducted with an expectation of how the results will turn out, good
practice is to make ample room for the possibility that your hypothesis is wrong.

For testing, you will be analyzing and comparing your results against the null hypothesis, so your
research must be designed with this in mind. It is vitally important that the research
you design produces results that will be analyzable using statistical tests.
Most people are very afraid of statistics, and worry about not understanding the processes or
messing up the experiments. There really is no need to fear.
Most scientists understand only the basic principles of statistics, and once you have these, modern
computing technology gives a whole battery of software for hypothesis testing.
Designing your research only needs a basic understanding of the best practices for selecting
samples, isolating testable variables and randomizing groups.

Hypothesis Testing Example

A common statistical method is to compare the means of various groups.

For example, you might have come up with a measurable hypothesis that children will gain a higher
IQ if they eat oily fish for a period of time.
Your alternative hypothesis, H1 would be

“Children who eat oily fish for six months show an increase in IQ when compared to
children who have not."

Therefore, your null hypothesis, H0 would be

 “Children who eat oily fish for six months do NOT show an increase in IQ when
compared to children who have not."

In other words, with the experiment design, you will be measuring whether the IQ increase of
children fed oily fish will deviate from the mean, assumed to be the normal condition.
 H0 = No increase. The children will show no increase in mean intelligence.
 H1 = A significant increase. The children show an increase in mean intelligence.
From IQ testing of the control group, you find that the control group has a mean IQ of 100 before the
experiment and 100 afterwards, or no increase. This is the mean against which the sample group
will be tested.
The children fed fish show an increase from 100 to 106.

So, does this mean that we can reject the null hypothesis and conclude that our alternative
hypothesis was in fact true?

While there does appear to be an increase, but here is where statistics enters the hypothesis testing
process. You need to test whether the increase is significant, or if experimental error and standard
deviation could account for the difference.
On the surface, a result may appear to human intuition to be meaningful. But statistical testing can
show us whether the result we see is statistically meaningful and big enough to draw any
conclusions.
Using an appropriate test, the researcher compares the two means, taking into account the increase,
the number of data samples and the relative randomization of the groups. The researchers may use
a statistical test called a t-test, and compare the p-value they find on a table. This result shows
whether the researcher can have confidence in the results.

If the p-value is above a certain value, the researchers can be assured that the difference is not just
due to chance or error. This allows for the rejection of the null hypothesis. In our example, the 6-
point difference does not in fact prove to be significant.

Thus, many experiments provide results that go against our expectations. While casual observation
may show a difference or relationship between two groups, it may not be a statistically
significant difference.
A well-worded hypothesis will mean that if we reject H0, we must logically accept H1. In other words,
there is either a change or there is no change, there is no other possibility.
Remember, not rejecting the null hypothesis is not the same as accepting it. It is only that this
particular experiment showed that oily fish had no affect upon IQ. This principle lies at the very heart
of hypothesis testing.
The simplistic definition of the null is as the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, H1, although the
principle is a little more complex than that.
The null hypothesis (H0) is a hypothesis which the researcher tries to disprove, reject or nullify.
The 'null' often refers to the common view of something, while the alternative hypothesis is what the
researcher really thinks is the cause of a phenomenon.

The simplistic definition of the null is as the opposite of the alternative hypothesis, H1, although the
principle is a little more complex than that.
The 'null' often refers to the common view of something, while the alternative hypothesis is what the
researcher really thinks is the cause of a phenomenon.

An experiment conclusion always refers to the null, rejecting or accepting H0 rather than H1.

Despite this, many researchers neglect the null hypothesis when testing hypotheses, which is poor
practice and can have adverse effects.
Examples of the Null Hypothesis

A researcher may postulate a hypothesis:

H1: Tomato plants exhibit a higher rate of growth when planted in compost rather than in soil.

And a null hypothesis:

H0: Tomato plants do not exhibit a higher rate of growth when planted in compost rather than
soil.

It is important to carefully select the wording of the null, and ensure that it is as specific as possible.
For example, the researcher might postulate a null hypothesis:

H0: Tomato plants show no difference in growth rates when planted in compost rather than
soil.

There is a major flaw with this H0. If the plants actually grow more slowly in compost than in soil, an
impasse is reached. H1 is not supported, but neither is H0, because there is a difference in growth
rates.
If the null is rejected, with no alternative, the experiment may be invalid. This is the reason why
science uses a battery of deductive and inductive processes to ensure that there are no flaws in the
hypotheses.
Many scientists neglect the null, assuming that it is merely the opposite of the alternative, but it is
good practice to spend a little time creating a sound hypothesis. It is not possible to change any
hypothesis retrospectively, including H0.

Significance Tests

If significance tests generate 95% or 99% likelihood that the results do not fit the null hypothesis,
then it is rejected, in favor of the alternative.
Otherwise, the null is accepted. These are the only correct assumptions, and it is incorrect to reject,
or accept, H1.
Accepting the null hypothesis does not mean that it is true. It is still a hypothesis, and must conform
to the principle of falsifiability, in the same way that rejecting the null does not prove the alternative.
Perceived Problems With the Null

The major problem with the H0 is that many researchers, and reviewers, see accepting the null as a
failure of the experiment. This is very poor science, as accepting or rejecting any hypothesis is a
positive result.
Even if the null is not refuted, the world of science has learned something new. Strictly speaking, the
term ‘failure’, should only apply to errors in the experimental design, or incorrect initial assumptions.
Development of the Null

The Flat Earth model was common in ancient times, such as in the civilizations of the Bronze Age or
Iron Age. This may be thought of as the null hypothesis, H0, at the time.
H0: World is Flat

Many of the Ancient Greek philosophers assumed that the sun, moon and other objects in the
universe circled around the Earth. Hellenistic astronomy established the spherical shape of the earth
around 300 BC.

H0: The Geocentric Model: Earth is the centre of the Universe and it is Spherical

Copernicus had an alternative hypothesis, H1 that the world actually circled around the sun, thus
being the center of the universe. Eventually, people got convinced and accepted it as the null, H 0.
H0: The Heliocentric Model: Sun is the centre of the universe
Grounded Theory
Grounded theory approach is a special approach whose main purpose is to develop
theories. This type of study doesn’t commence with any pre-existing hypothesis or
theories. Instead, the theory is developed after the analysis of the collected data.
The researcher involved in this research design will first collect data through
interviews, observations, review of records or a combination of these methods. He
or she will then analyse the collected data and notice recurring ideas and concepts,
which will be tagged with codes. As the data analysis progresses, codes will be
grouped into concepts and concepts into categories. Categories will then serve as
the basis for the theories.

Historical Studies
Historical studies examine past events to understand the present and expect
potential future effects. The process involves selecting an appropriate topic after
reading related literature, developing research questions, finding an inventory of
sources such as achieves, papers, private libraries, etc., verifying their validity and
reliability, and collecting data. The analysis of data in this approach will involve the
synthesis of all information, and reconciliation of conflicting information.

Case Studies
A case study is a detailed investigation of the development of a single phenomenon
or an individual over a period of time. Case studies are generally used to explore
complex issues using both qualitative and quantitative data. They are holistic,
systematic, context-sensitive and layered. They start with the identification of the
research problem, which is then followed by the selection of the cases and the data
collection and analysis method. The next step involves the collection of data in the
field and analysis. Since case studies focus on a single phenomenon, it is somewhat
difficult to use this data to form generalisations.

Action Research
Action research is a type of a research approach that aims to solve an immediate
problem. This design can involve a combination of analytical, investigative and
evaluative methods designed to diagnose and solve problems. The researcher, who
will also act as a participant, will first identify a research problem, clarify theories
regarding it and then identify research questions. Next, he will collect data on the
problem, and organize them. Then the data will be analyzed and interpreted, and a
plan will be created to address the problem. The last steps of this research design
involve the implementation of this plan and evaluation of the results of this plan.

Phenomenology
Phenomenology is a study that aims to understand the subjective, lived
experiences and perspectives of participants. This is based on the main idea that
there are multiple interpretations of the same experience and these multiple
interpretations or meanings make up of reality. This approach involves long and
intensive interview sessions with various participants in order to gather information
about unique individual experiences which offer a rich description of human
experiences.

Ethnography
Ethnography is the systematic study of communities and cultures. Researchers
engaged in ethnographic studies participate, either overtly or covertly, in the daily
lives of the population that are being studied. They spend an extensive time period
among this population, watching what happens, listening to what’s being said and
asking questions. Interviews, observations and analysis of records are the main
methods of data collection in an ethnographic study. The main aim of
an ethnographic research is exploring and studying culture from an insider’s point
of view.