ASSIGNMENT

COURSE : NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND FINITE ELEMENT

METHODS
COURSE CODE : ECS 555
SEMESTER : OCT 2020 - FEB 2021

TEAM MEMBERS:

1. NAME :MUHAMMAD HAZIQ BIN AZIZ

STUDENTNO.:2017741777

2. NAME :NURUL NABILAH BINTI MOKTAR

STUDENTNO.:2018298246

3. NAME : NURUL AMALINA BINTI IBRAHIM

STUDENTNO.:2018659652

GROUP :EC220 5A1B

LECTURER :DR SAKHIAH ABDUL KUDUS

Examiner:
REPORT CO-PO MARKS DR ADIZA JAMADIN
MOHD RIDZUAN MOHD ALI
1 CO1-PO2 /50 MAZLINA MOHAMAD
DR SAKHIAH ABDUL KUDUS
DR HAZRINA MANSOR
2 CO2-PO5 /50
IR DR ANIZAHYATI ALISIBRAMULISI
DR NORLIYATI MOHD AMIN
TOTAL CARRY OVER MARKS /20%
Vetter:

© HakCiptaUniversitiTeknologi MARA
1.0 INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing

pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cause by ever acute respiratory
syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The first case was identified in Wuhan, China in
late 2019. Until today, the virus have spread globally including Malaysia and caused
thousands of death. COVID-19 first breakout in Malaysia was reported earlier this year in
February and the government have took serious action to break the chain of COVID-19 from
spreading.

On the current issue of COVID-19, we can see how bad this pandemic has affected
Malaysian. Many have lost their job and source of income and the situation is getting
worse. Just after months, the government plan in tackling this virus seems to be disorder at
some point. This happen when the government implement Conditional Movement Control
Order (CMCO), after Malaysians have been introduced to Recovery Movement Order
(RMCO) which lifted several tight standard operating procedures (SOP) to cope living with
the new norm. Since then, the cases hiked up again and the cases reported back after some
politicians returned from Sabah for a 2020 Sabah state election.

Even though Malaysia currently implement CMCO, some state that are recognised as
green zone which means their daily cases reported were small in numbers or close to none,
they have re-gained the RMCO in their states. Somehow, after the CMCO were enforced,
the government decided to eradicate restrictions including passing through state borders.
Some Malaysians are worried by giving the “free pass”, the state which already in critical or
mid-critical zone could pass through the state border. Moreover, the Ministry said this action
had to be done to make Malaysians familiarise by living with the new norm amid the
pandemic outbreak.

The data in this project contains data of cumulative cases, recovered cases, and death
cases in Malaysia from September until November 2020. The data then generated in
polynomial graph from the cases recorded and to be used to predict point zero case using
regression method. The data would be useful for the government as they provide the means
to obtain reliable estimates of output variables based on a set of predictor variables which
are usually easier to measure.

2
2.0 NUMERICAL METHOD ANALYSIS

a) Table 1 represents the real data of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia in three months record
from September 2020 until November 2020. The tabulated data is obtained to analyse the
cumulative cases, recovered cases and death cases using Polynomial Regression Method
and Naïve Gauss Elimination Method. This numerical method was verified using trendline
function and the calculation is valid.
Table 1: COVID-19 daily cases from September 2020 until November 2020

DATE CONFIRMED CASES CUMULATIVE CASES RECOVERED CASES DEATH CASES

1-Sep 14 14 21 0
2-Sep 6 20 4 0
3-Sep 14 34 4 0
4-Sep 11 45 9 0
5-Sep 6 51 21 0
6-Sep 6 57 2 0
7-Sep 62 119 9 0
8-Sep 100 219 12 0
9-Sep 24 243 7 0
10-Sep 45 288 24 0
11-Sep 182 470 14 0
12-Sep 58 528 8 0
13-Sep 47 575 7 0
14-Sep 31 606 7 0
15-Sep 23 629 6 0
16-Sep 62 691 26 0
17-Sep 21 712 15 0
18-Sep 95 807 14 1
19-Sep 20 827 51 1
20-Sep 52 879 40 0
21-Sep 57 936 40 0
22-Sep 82 1018 168 0
23-Sep 147 1165 39 3
24-Sep 71 1236 64 0
25-Sep 111 1347 30 0
26-Sep 82 1429 89 0
27-Sep 150 1579 50 1
28-Sep 115 1694 54 0
29-Sep 101 1795 50 0
30-Sep 89 1884 28 2
1-Oct 260 2144 47 0
2-Oct 287 2431 81 0

3
 3-Oct 317 2748 121 1
4-Oct 293 3041 67 0
5-Oct 432 3473 57 0
6-Oct 691 4164 87 4
7-Oct 489 4653 74 0
8-Oct 375 5028 18 5
9-Oct 354 5382 188 6
10-Oct 374 5756 173 3
11-Oct 561 6317 133 2
12-Oct 563 6880 109 2
13-Oct 660 7540 350 4
14-Oct 660 8200 233 4
15-Oct 589 8789 409 3
16-Oct 629 9418 245 6
17-Oct 869 10287 302 4
18-Oct 871 11158 701 7
19-Oct 865 12023 455 3
20-Oct 862 12885 634 3
21-Oct 732 13617 508 6
22-Oct 847 14464 486 5
23-Oct 710 15174 467 10
24-Oct 1228 16402 671 7
25-Oct 823 17225 579 8
26-Oct 1240 18465 691 7
27-Oct 835 19300 674 2
28-Oct 801 20101 573 8
29-Oct 649 20750 685 0
30-Oct 799 21549 491 3
31-Oct 659 22208 1000 0
1-Nov 957 23165 972 0
2-Nov 834 23999 900 2
3-Nov 1054 25053 875 12
4-Nov 1032 26085 820 8
5-Nov 1009 27094 839 6
6-Nov 1755 28849 726 2
7-Nov 1168 30017 1029 3
8-Nov 852 30869 825 4
9-Nov 972 31841 1345 8
10-Nov 869 32710 725 6
11-Nov 822 33532 769 2
12-Nov 919 34451 996 1
13-Nov 1304 35755 900 1
14-Nov 1114 36869 803 2
15-Nov 1208 38077 1013 3
16-Nov 1103 39180 821 4
4
 17-Nov 1210 40390 1018 5
18-Nov 660 41050 630 4
19-Nov 1290 42340 878 4
20-Nov 958 43298 956 3
21-Nov 1041 44339 1405 3
22-Nov 1096 45435 1104 3
23-Nov 1884 47319 883 2
24-Nov 2188 49507 1673 4
25-Nov 970 50477 2348 4
26-Nov 935 51412 2555 3
27-Nov 1109 52521 1148 2
28-Nov 1315 53836 1110 4
29-Nov 1309 55145 1333 3
30-Nov 1212 56357 2112 3

The data was plotted into graph cases vs number of days and the trendline function was
applied to verify the manual calculation. The plotted graph of cumulative cases recovered
cases and death cases are shown as below.

Figure 1: Cumulative Cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia from September 2020 until

November 2020

Figure 1 illustrates the plotted graph of recovered case of COVID-19 in Malaysia from
September 2020 until November 2020. The trendline function was inserted is polynomial
curve. The function of the curve was obtained which is y =9.3483x2 – 231.27x + 1159.

5
 RECOVERED CASE OF COVID19 IN MALAYSIA
(SEPT 2020-NOV 2020)
3000

2500 y = 0.2392x2 - 3.9344x + 12.364

R² = 0.8257
2000
Recovered Cases

1500

1000

500

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
-500
Days

Figure 2: Recovered Cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia from September 2020 until

November 2020

Figure 2 represents the plotted graph of recovered case of COVID-19 in Malaysia from
September 2020 until November 2020. The trendline function was inserted is polynomial
curve. The function of the curve was obtained which is y = 0.2392x2 - 3.9344x + 12.364.

6
 DEATH CASES OF COVID-19 IN MALAYSIA
(SEPT 2020-NOV 2020)
14
12 y = -0.0014x2 + 0.1797x - 1.8827
R² = 0.3763
10
8
Death Caes

6
4
2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
-2
-4
Days

Figure 3: Death Cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia from September 2020 until November
2020

Figure 3 shows the plotted graph of death case of COVID-19 in Malaysia from
September 2020 until November 2020. The trendline function was inserted is polynomial
curve. The function of the curve was obtained which is y = -0.0014x2 + 0.1797x - 1.8827.

7
b) Predicting Zero Case
Based on the graphs plotted in Objective 1, we obtained the equation of polynomial
curve for cumulative cases, recovered cases and death cases. The equations as below.

Cumulative Cases
y = 9.3483x2 - 231.2692x + 1159.0486
Recovered Cases
y = 0.2392x2 - 3.9344x + 12.364
Death Cases
y = -0.0014x2 + 0.1797x - 1.8827

Assumed Zero Case = Cumulative Cases - Recovered Cases – Death Cases

Let Zero Cases = y.
Hence, by substituting the polynomial curve equation obtained from cumulative cases,
recovered cases and death cases, the equation for Zero Case as below.
f(x) = 9.1105x 2 − 227.51x + 1148.567

The zero case can be predicted by using bracketing method. Based on the calculation using
bisection method on Microsoft Excel, we obtained the root of f(x) = 9.1105x 2 −
227.51x + 1148.567 is 𝑥𝑟 = 7.0273. Hence, zero case is predicted to be happened in 7-8
days ahead.

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c) Profit Maximization of Hand Sanitizer

We decided to produce hand sanitizer to earn extra income. The raw materials for each
hand sanitizer products are ethanol (alcohol) and soothing aloe vera gel has been used. The
designed packaging of each hand sanitizer products is 100 ml per unit. The proposed
composition of raw material, production time and packaging time of hand sanitizer for
Product A, Product B and Product C illustrated in Table 2 below.

Table 2: Hand Sanitizer Product’s Details

Product A B C
Ethanol (ml) 70 75 80
Ethanol (%l) 70 75 80
Soothing Aloe Vera Gel (ml) 30 25 20
Soothing Aloe Vera Gel (%) 30 25 20
Production Time (hr/week) 1.25 1.5 1.75
Packaging Time (hr/week) 2 2.5 3
Proposed Price per 100 ml
(RM) 12.00 17.00 20.00

The availability of ethanol and soothing aloe vera gel based on our budget is 3000 ml
and 2000 ml respectively. The maximum profit of hand sanitizer products was obtained by
using Simplex Method. The calculation of profit maximization using Simplex Method was
verified using Solver function in Microsoft Excel and the calculation is fair. Based on the
calculation using Simplex Method, we obtained the maximum profit of products which is
RM 466.67. However, to gain the maximum profit, we only get to produce 23 units of
Product C per week with RM 20.00 per unit because Product A and Product B did not
contribute to the total maximum profit. Hence, the estimated of production time and
packaging time of Product C which are 1 hour 45 minutes and 3 hours respectively are
accepted.

9
3.0 CONCLUSION

The data provided shows cumulative cases, recovered cases, and death cases in
Malaysia collected from September until November 2020. We use the data to show the
polynomial graph and by using this method, it would be useful for the government to
monitor the number of the cumulative, recovered and death cases during the period. Based
on the graph, it illustrates the rise and fall of the number alongside the day of the cases
recorded. The polynomial graph from cumulative cases recorded shows the number of cases
increased rapidly after day 30 until the end of recorded period. Similarly, polynomial graph
of daily recovered cases also shows the rate of recovery is increasing throughout the period.
While the daily death cases polynomial graph recorded a spike in the early period in the
data, but the number is decreasing significantly after 60 days from the beginning of the data
collected. Next, we can predict the point zero case by concluding the equation from the
polynomial curve cumulative cases, recovered cases, and death cases in Malaysia and
applying the bracketing method of which in this matter might help the government in
planning ahead when COVID-19 cases will eventually drop until zero cases and plan on
how to maintain on flattening the curve as minimum as possible. The hand sanitizers that we
are producing are divided into Product A, Product B, and Product C, which then compared
the price market and maximized the profit of products. The availability of ethanol and aloe
vera gel based on our budget are 3000 ml and 2000 ml respectively. Lastly, by calculating
profit maximization by using Simplex Method, we obtain the total maximum profit of
products is RM 466.67. Hence, to maximize the profit the number of Product C to be
produced is 23 units per week with RM 20.00 per unit.

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 APPENDIX A: ECS555 NUMERICAL METHOD REPORT - PERFORMANCE CRITERIA (RUBRICS)

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA MARKS (10)

0-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9 - 10
INTRODUCTION Only provide minimal Able to provide Able to provide Able to provide Able to provide thorough
(CO1-PO2) information of the satisfactory project satisfactory project project brief including and comprehensive
project brief but does not brief that include anyof clear explanation and project brief including
include any of the the following: Consist highlight expected Excellent explanation on
following: Did not of average explanation outcomes from describing constraints on
/10marks
consist/ failure to on describing data analysis the data analysis, able to
write explanation on constraints on the indicate and highlight
describing constraints expected outcomes of expected outcomes from
on the expected dataanalysis data analysis
outcome of data
analysis
TOTAL (INTRODUCTION) /10 marks

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA MARKS (80)

0-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9 - 10
a. Dataextraction Provide insufficient Provide TWO data Provide satisfactory Provide clear THREE Provide detailed and
(CO2-PO5) data extraction from extraction from trusted THREE data extraction data extraction from comprehensive THREE /10 marks
trusted sources and it sources that is difficult from trusted sources trusted sources data extraction fromtrusted
is difficult to to follow. sources
understand the data.
b. Data analysis Provide insufficient Provide data analysis Provide satisfactory Provide clear data Provide detailed and
(CO2-PO5) data analysis using using software that is data analysis using analysis using software. comprehensive data
software and it is difficult to follow. software that is clearly to analysis using software.
/10 marks
difficult to understand understand
the solutions
c. Development of Provide insufficient Provide development Provide satisfactory Provide clear Provide detailed and
equation development of equation of equation solution development of equation development of equation comprehensive
(CO1-PO2) and it is difficult to with minimum verification derivation and
that is difficult to with verification /10 marks
understand the equations. (CO1-PO2)
follow. development of equation
with detailed verification

d. Description of Provide insufficient Provide description of Provide satisfactory Provide clear description Provide detailed and
numerical description of numerical numerical analysis description of numerical of numerical analysis comprehensive
analysis analysis method and it is analysis method description of numerical
method methods /10 marks
method difficult to understand the
analysis method
(CO2-PO5) equations.

e. Solution using Provide insufficient Provide solutions using Provide satisfactory Provide clear solutions Provide detailed and
software solutions using software TWO software function solutions using at least using FOUR software comprehensive solutions
analysis THREE software function using FOUR software /(10 x 2 )marks
(CO2-PO5) function function

4
f. Verification Provide insufficient Provide verification Provide satisfactory Provide clear solutions Provide detailed and
using numerical verification using ONE of using TWO of the solutions using at least using FOUR numerical comprehensive solutions /(10 x 2 )marks
method the numerical method numerical method THREE numerical methods using FOUR numerical
(CO1-PO2) method method
ASSESSMENT CRITERIA MARKS (10)
0-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9 - 10
CONCLUSION Provide weak Provide a conclusion Provide acceptable Provide good conclusion Provide excellent /10marks
(CO1-PO2) conclusion that does does not concise with conclusion that is aligned that complement the conclusion that concise
not relate with the the analysis with the analysis goal(s) of the analysis with the discussion and the
analysis goal(s) of the analysis
TOTAL (CONCLUSION) /10 marks
TOTAL PROJECT MARKS /100 marks