Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Economics Date

19 January 2021
Early Morning Reid

January 2021 Survey Results

Jim Reid
, Strategist
+44-20-754-72943
Here are the results of our monthly market sentiment survey conducted from
Karthik Nagalingam
January 13-15 covering 627 market professionals across the world. We asked our
Research Analyst
readers whether they think there are bubbles in financial markets (and where those
+1-212-250-0521
might be) and also if there will be a taper tantrum in markets this year. In addition,
we gauged their thoughts on Covid-19 restrictions, vaccines and other market- Henry Allen
Research Analyst
related questions.
+44-20-754-11149

n Starting with potential bubbles in the financial markets. The vast majority
of respondents (89%) see some bubbles in financial markets currently.

Figure 1: How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement
... 'Currently, there are many bubbles in financial markets'.

60%
52%
50%

40% 37%

30%

20%

10% 5% 6%
1%
0%
Strongly agree Slightly agree Neither agree nor Slightly disagree Strongly disagree
disagree

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n When asked to rate the degree to which an asset class was a bubble, 50%
of all readers gave bitcoin a 10 - the highest rating. Only 8% rated the
cryptocurrency as a 5 or lower, and it had an average rating of 8.7, which is
the highest among assets measured.
n After bitcoin, US tech stocks were seen as the next largest bubble with an
average score of 7.9 out of 10, with 8 also being the most answered level.
83% of respondents gave a tech bubble a rating of 7 or higher
n Non-tech US equities (4.7) and European equities (4.3) were actually the
lowest so little sign of investors thinking there is a bubble here.

Deutsche Bank AG
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 064/04/2020. DURING THE PERIOD
NOVEMBER 2018 to MARCH 2020 DISCLOSURES MAY HAVE DISPLAYED INCOMPLETE INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE
APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
 Figure 2: Looking at the following assets and using a scale of 0 to 10 where 0
means ‘No Bubble’ and 10 means ‘Extreme Bubble’, where do you think these
assets currently are?
Mean score for where respondents think the following assets are (Based on 0 = ‘No Bubble’; 10 = ‘Extreme
Bubble)
10 8.7
7.9
8
6.2 5.9 5.9
6 5.5
4.7 4.3 4.7
4

0
US tech US non-tech European Asian equities Bitcoin US European European US credit
equities equities equities government government credit spreads spreads
bonds bonds

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n When asked specifically about the 12 month fate of Bitcoin and Tesla - a
stock emblematic of a potential tech bubble - a majority of readers think that
they are more likely to halve than double from these levels with Tesla more
vulnerable according to readers.

Figure 3: Do you think the following are more likely to double or halve over the
next 12 months?

100%
19% 20%
80%

60%
56% 62%
40%

20%
25% 18%
0%
Bitcoin Tesla
More likely to double More likely to halve Don't know

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n If there are bubbles present, the question then becomes 'what could
potentially pop them?'. To the extent that easy monetary situations create
a conducive environment for bubbles, and after observing the sharp rally in
US yields in 2021, we asked readers about their thoughts on tapering.
n 71% of respondents do not believe that the Fed will taper prior to year-end,
which is in line with what Fed governors had been saying forcefully by the
end of last week, but a quarter of readers may think that economic growth/
markets could force their hand.
n A slight majority of readers (55%) do not see a taper tantrum type event
coming this year, while a third believe we will.

Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG

 Figure 4: Do you think the Fed will taper their asset Figure 5: Do you think we will see a ‘taper tantrum’ type
purchasing program in 2021? event in financial markets in 2021?

80% 71% 60% 55%

70%
50%
60%
50% 40%
33%
40%
25% 30%
30%
20% 20%
12%
10% 4%
10%
0%
Yes - They will taper this No - They won't taper Don't know 0%
year this year Yes, we will No, we won't Don't know

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Inflation could force the Fed's hand, but given the new average inflation
targeting framework, many Fed governors in recent days have indicated
that they would be comfortable with higher-than-average inflation for a
short while. This month 77% of respondents saw inflation as more likely
after the pandemic while only 16% thought we would see deflation, the
largest spread since we asked this back in April. The spread has consistently
widened since May.

Figure 6: Do you think we are more likely to see inflation or deflation in 1 to 5

years out due to coronavirus?

100% 6%
15% 12% 15% 12% 13% 12% 17% 14%
90%
16%
80%
31% 28% 28% 20%
70% 32% 30% 23%
40%
60%
50%
40% 77%
30% 60% 60% 66%
53% 55% 57% 59%
47%
20%
10%
0%
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21
Inflation Deflation Don't know

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Moving on to the Coronavirus specifically, nearly twice as many readers

feel like the roll-out of vaccines in their home countries is below
expectations than those who view it as going better than expected (41%
worse vs 22% better).
n As you’ll see in the appendix, 54% of people in the U.K. thought the roll-out
was exceeding expectations (only 8% below). No one in France or Germany
thought the same and only 6% did in the US. 83% in France thought below
expectations.

Deutsche Bank AG Page 3

 Figure 7: Compared to your thoughts a month ago, is the current vaccine roll
out in your country ...

40% 37%
35%
30% 28%

25%
19%
20%
15% 13%
10%
5% 3%

0%
Far exceeding your Exceeding your In line with your Below your Far below your
expectations expectations expectations expectations expectations

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Getting the vaccine deployed quickly seems like the quickest way of
reopening the economy. When asked their thoughts on the current
lockdown/restrictions, 61% think that restrictions should end once enough
of the public is vaccinate to relieve stress on the health care system. A
quarter of respondents would keep lock-down measures in place until
cases and deaths are back to a minimum.

Figure 8: Thinking about the current lockdown that is in place within your
country, which if any, of the following statement best describes your personal
view. Lockdowns should end …
70%
61%
60%
50%
40%
30% 25%
20%
11%
10% 3%
0%
Now When vaccine levels ensure When cases, hospitalisations None of the above
health systems are unlikely to and deaths from covid are at
overwhelmed, even if cases, a minimum
hospitalisations and deaths
are still elevated

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n For a fifth month in a row, readers lean toward feeling that their current
restrictions are too lenient (net 2% lenient), but it was the lowest net feeling
so far and the 46% that thought restrictions were "just right" was the
highest percentage yet.
n More respondents felt that governments have underreacted (39%
underreacted vs 32% overreacted). This is in contrast to the Autumn, when
more respondents thought governments had overreacted. This coincides
with record cases and deaths in the US and high case counts throughout
Europe.

Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG

 Figure 9: Do you think current Covid-19 related restrictions Figure 10: Thinking about the overall response to Covid-
in your country are ... 19, do you think global authorities have …

50% 40%
46% Sep-20 Sep-20
44%
Oct-20
33% 33% Oct-20
31% 31%
40% 38% 29%29% 29% 30%
36% 30% 29%
36% Nov-20 27%27% Nov-20
26%
25%
30%
30% Dec-20 22% 22% Dec-20
28%
26%
24% Jan-21 20% Jan-21
22%
13%
20% 17%16%17%17%
15% 10% 10% 9%10%
12%12% 10%
10% 10%
10% 10% 6% 6%
4% 4% 5%
10%
6% 5% 6% 6%
0%
0% Completely Somewhat Reacted Somewhat Completely
Far too strict A little too strict About right A little too lenient Far too lenient overreacted overreacted proportionately underreacted underreacted

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Respondents are not terribly bullish on all restrictions being lifted in the next
few months as 51% only see life returning to normal by the end of 2021 or
later. Just 17% see normality returning by July but with 32% seeing it by end
Q3.

Figure 11: When do you think life will be mostly back to normal within your
country?
35% 32% 30%
30%
25%
20%
14% 16%
15%
10%
5%
5% 2% 1%
0%
It already is End of Q1 End of Q2 End of Q3 End of Q4 In 2022 or Never
2021 2021 2021 2021 beyond

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Restrictions remain in place in various forms in Europe and continue to rise

in pockets of the US as respondents’ attitudes to 'normal' activities
continues to fall in the short term.
n With increasing restrictions being levied on bars and restaurants, ‘only’
23% of respondents plan to eat out in the next month - only May saw a lower
percentage at 20%.
n The share of respondents expecting to return to their normal office in the
next month fell to 29%, the lowest level since July, while mass public
transport use fell to June levels.

Deutsche Bank AG Page 5

 Figure 12: When do you think you’ll next do the following activities ...
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Jan-21

Jan-21

Jan-21
Sep-20

Jan-21

Sep-20

Jan-21

Jan-21
Jul-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Sep-20

Sep-20

Sep-20
Jun-20

Jun-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Jun-20
Jul-20

Jun-20
Jul-20
May-20

May-20

May-20
Nov-20

Nov-20

May-20

May-20
Oct-20

Dec-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Nov-20

Nov-20

May-20
Oct-20

Dec-20

Oct-20

Dec-20

Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20

Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Fly in a plane Go on holiday Go to a bar/ restaurant Mass public gathering (e.g. a Be back to your normal office Use mass public transport
sports game or concert)
Within the next month Within the next three months Within the next six months Within the next twelve months Beyond twelve months Don't know

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n In the short term (over the next three months), almost every activity is lower
across age groups. Unlike in the early days of the pandemic, activity is
starting to converge across age groups for social activities, which is likely
due to widespread lockdowns in Europe. On the other hand, younger
workers remain more likely to be returning to their offices in the short term.

Figure 13: Percentage of people who will do following activities over the next 3 months by age group
100%
90% Under 34 35-44 45-54 55 or over All
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jul-20

Jul-20

Jul-20

Jul-20

Jul-20

Jul-20
Jun-20

Jun-20

Jun-20

Jun-20

Jun-20
Sep-20
Oct-20

Dec-20
Jan-21

Sep-20
Oct-20

Dec-20
Jan-21

Sep-20
Oct-20

Dec-20

Sep-20
Oct-20

Jan-21

Sep-20
Oct-20

Dec-20
Jan-21

Sep-20

Dec-20
Jan-21
Nov-20

Jun-20

Nov-20

Nov-20

Nov-20
Dec-20

Oct-20
Nov-20
Jan-21

Nov-20

Fly in a plane Go on holiday Go to a bar/ restaurant Go to a mass public Be back to your normal Use mass public
gathering office transport

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n As mentioned before, vaccination remains the likeliest route back to

normalisation and on the willingness to take a vaccine, just under two-
thirds (62%) said they would be willing to take a vaccine within one month
of an approved vaccine being made available to them, which is up from 48%
a month earlier. As you can see in a pair of graphs in our appendix, there
seems to be more confidence in quickly taking the vaccine in the West as
compared to Asia.
n However, when asked when they expect to be vaccinated, taking into
account potential availability as well, only 5% expect to be vaccinated by
the end of Q1 2021, with less than 40% before July, compared to
expectations of 51% by the end of H1 last month. The slow overall roll-out
has clearly set expectations back a bit. Just 4% of readers still say they

Page 6 Deutsche Bank AG

 would not want to get vaccinated, which is encouraging for the vaccine’s
success.

Figure 14: Which, if any, of the following sentences best Figure 15: Given both availability and your own
describes your willingness to take one of the current willingness,when do you think you will be vaccinated
approved vaccines? against Covid-19?
45%
70% 40% Dec-20
62% Dec-20 40%
60% 34% Jan-21
Jan-21 35% 33%
48%
50% 30%
24%
40% 25%
30% 20% 17%
17%15% 15%
20% 10% 10% 10%
12% 13% 8%
8% 8% 10%
10% 7% 5% 5% 4% 4%
3% 2% 5% 1%
0% 0%
Within first Within the first Within the first After six Not willing to Don't know Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 2022 or Won't get
month three months six months months be vaccinated beyond vaccinated

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Roughly 88% of respondents see between 0 and 40% of the developed

world vaccinated by the middle of this year, while the plurality see
somewhere between 20-30%.
n Optimism continues to rise on the longer end with 86% of respondents
seeing more than 30% of the developed world vaccinated against Covid-19
by the end of 2021. Over two-thirds (68%) think 40-80% of the world will be
vaccinated and 54% see over half the world vaccinated by year's end.

Figure 16: Looking at the following time periods...In your opinion, what percentage of the developed world’s population
will be vaccinated against Covid-19 by end of H1 and year-end.
50%
45%

40%
31%
30%
24% 24%
20% 21%
19% 18% 18%
20% 16% 17%
15%
14%
13% 14%
11% 11%
8% 9% 8%
10% 7% 6% 6%
4% 5%
3%
2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%
0%
Under > 10% > 20% >30% > 40% > 50% > 60% > 70% > 80% > 90% Don't Under > 10% > 20% >30% > 40% > 50% > 60% > 70% > 80% > 90% Don't
10% but but but but but but but but but know 10% but but but but but but but but but know
≤20% ≤30% ≤40% ≤50% ≤60% ≤70% ≤80% ≤90% ≤100% ≤20% ≤30% ≤40% ≤50% ≤60% ≤70% ≤80% ≤90% ≤100%

End of H1 Year end

Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Continuing to look ahead, just under a half (45%) of respondents continue

to expect global growth forecasts to be upgraded in the next year with 26%
seeing them downgraded - slightly higher than last month.

Deutsche Bank AG Page 7

 Figure 17: Taking current consensus expectations into consideration … Over the
next 12 months, do you think global growth forecasts for 2021 will be …
50% 47% 45%
45% Dec-20
40% 35% Jan-21
35%
28%
30% 26%
25%
19%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Upgraded Stay around the same Downgraded
level
Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n With the S&P 500 just off its record highs and European stocks near their
own pandemic highs, respondents continue to rate risk assets as
overvalued. 15% of readers see risk assets as "extremely expensive", the
most since September. While the net level of +77% thinking they are
expensive is the largest spread since June levels. Just 3% responded that
risk assets are cheap.
n Cyclical stocks are viewed as "cheap" or "extremely cheap" to mega-cap
growth stocks with a net of 29% seeing MCG stocks overvalued to their
more economically-linked counterparts. This has fallen somewhat over the
last two months as the cyclical-over-growth trade has indeed worked with
bank and energy stocks rallying.

Figure 18: Relative to fundamentals, risk assets are Figure 19: Relative to Growth stocks (e.g., FANGs, mega-
generally... cap growth stocks ), cyclicals are..
100% 0%
4% 5%
0% 0%
5%
1%
6%
0% 1%
7%
0%
3% 100% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6% 5%
9% 8%
11% 17%
18% 15%
23% 21%
80% 25% 80%
41% 38% 46%
42% 43% 49%
51%
60% 60%
59%
57%
60% 65%
40% 59%
55%
59% 40% 26% 27%
26% 28% 26%
24%
23%

20% 20% 20%

22% 17% 15% 15%
25% 14% 15%
22%
16% 13% 15%
11% 10% 5% 7% 6% 7% 5% 8%
4%
0% 0%
Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Relative to fundamentals, risk assets are generally... Relative to Growth stocks (e.g. FANGs and mega-cap growth stocks generally), cyclicals are..

Extremely expensive Expensive Neither cheap nor expensive Cheap Extremely cheap Extremely expensive Expensive Neither cheap nor expensive Cheap Extremely cheap

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Respondents continue to see equities in both the US and Europe higher in

3 months. The three-month forecast of the S&P 500 is basically just as
bullish as we have seen since November, with a net of 48% seeing the index
higher. Twelve-month expectations, on the other hand, fell back to October
levels, with a net of 33% seeing equities higher - well below November's
reading (60%).
n European equities saw similar very strong positive sentiment, with a net of
49% seeing the Stoxx 600 higher in 3 months and a net of 42% seeing it
higher in 12 months - which, while still relatively high, is down from the
higher levels seen over the past two months.

Page 8 Deutsche Bank AG

 Figure 20: The S&P 500 will be ... in three months Figure 21: The S&P 500 will be ... in twelve months
100% 1% 2% 5% 6% 2% 2% 1% 1% 100% 4% 8% 7% 3% 5% 7%
9% 10% 9% 12%
12% 17% 13% 14% 15% 15% 13% 14% 11%
17% 19% 18%
24% 16% 14%
14% 18% 20%
80% 22% 34%
28% 80% 29% 24%
12%
21% 21% 20% 32% 13% 20% 25% 23% 13%
38% 14%
26% 21% 12%
31% 13%
27% 42%
60% 60% 17% 16%
23% 15% 15% 16%
15% 45%
28% 38%
14% 38% 46%
40% 20%
24% 40% 45%
44%
63% 60% 58% 60%
54% 22% 56% 36% 39% 33% 35%
38%
41% 38%
28%
20% 24% 32% 20%
27% 29% 29%
26%
17% 19% 21%
12% 14% 12% 15%
8% 6% 6% 9% 10%
4% 3% 4% 4%
0% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Much higher Slightly higher At about the same level Slightly lower Much lower Much higher Slightly higher At about the same level Slightly lower Much lower

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

Figure 22: The Stoxx 600 will be ... in three months Figure 23: The Stoxx 600 will be ... in twelve months
100% 1% 1%
8% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 1% 100% 8% 7% 5% 9% 6% 3% 4% 6%
11% 10% 13% 14% 11% 10% 11%
17% 16% 12% 9% 12%
20% 21% 18% 16% 15% 16%
24% 18%
80% 32%
28%
23%
80% 31% 32% 23% 23% 20% 14%
14%
28% 23% 24% 14% 27%
18% 15%
35% 29% 15%
33% 32% 42%
60% 29% 60% 16% 15% 18%
29% 18% 19% 17%
23% 49%
39% 49%
40% 14%
19% 57%
40% 36%
47%
45%
57% 58% 40%
57% 24% 39% 39%
49% 37% 33%
45% 41% 36%
20% 27% 35% 36% 20%
25% 26% 22% 24% 21%
16% 18%
9% 11% 12% 11% 14%
8% 5% 8% 4% 6% 5%
0% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Much higher Slightly higher At about the same level Slightly lower Much lower Much higher Slightly higher At about the same level Slightly lower Much lower

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

n Interestingly, even with the large rates move over the past month,
respondents see an additional leg in the sell-off of core sovereign bonds. On
a net basis, respondents continue to expect core rates in the US to rise in the
short term and long term by the most since we started asking the question
(net 51% in 3m and net 65% in 12m).
n Similarly, respondents also expect Bund yields to rise above current levels
in the short (net of 37%) and long term (net of 53%). The forecasts have been
rising steadily since September, and now expectations are at their highest
level since we started asking back last January.

Figure 24: 10-year US treasury yields will be ... in three Figure 25: 10-year US treasury yields will be... in twelve
months months
100% 1% 1%
6% 5% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 100% 6% 6% 6% 4% 7% 4% 7% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2%
13% 11% 9% 10% 8%
18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 12% 14%
25% 18% 18% 19%
29% 26% 21% 20% 15%
80% 27% 32% 80% 36% 32% 20%
30% 20%
36% 40% 27%
16% 24% 27%
35% 25%
60% 49% 48% 60% 27% 25%
48%
47% 23%
42% 23% 55%
43% 53% 53%
40% 22% 46% 40% 39% 49%
40% 43% 47%
58% 43%
38% 41%
46% 49% 34%
20% 33% 24% 33%
20% 31%
27% 31%
23% 26% 21% 20%
17% 18% 14% 14% 16%
7% 9% 7% 11% 11%
5% 5%
0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 3%

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21

Much higher Slighter higher Around the same level Slightly lower Much lower Much higher Slighter higher Around the same level Slightly lower Much lower

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

Deutsche Bank AG Page 9

 Figure 26: 10-year German Bund Yields will be…in three Figure 27: 10-year German Bund Yields will be…in twelve
months months
100% 6%
100% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1%
6%
12% 9% 10%
19% 16% 13% 15% 12% 11% 15%
20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15%
26% 27% 24% 19%
27%
80% 28%
80% 34%
50% 26% 35%
50% 54% 41% 33%
32%
60% 60%
48%
60% 35% 37% 39%
54% 58% 31% 33% 39%
52%
36% 62%
51% 58%
40%
40% 43%
45% 52%
41% 42%
44%
20% 37% 25% 35% 36% 36% 36%
37%
33% 39% 38% 39%
27% 26% 25% 26% 20%
19% 14% 18%
5% 16%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%
4% 4% 7% 6% 7% 5% 5% 6% 8% 9% 8%
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 0%
Much higher Slighter higher Around the same level Slightly lower Much lower Much higher Slighter higher Around the same level Slightly lower Much lower

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

Page 10 Deutsche Bank AG

 19 January 2021
Early Morning Reid

Appendix A

Figure 28: Which if any, of the following sentences best describes your
willingness to take one of the current approved vaccines?
100% 2% 3% 4%
5% 4% 8% 6% 0%
90% 8% 7% 6% 13% 9%
7% 17% 9% 6% 22%
80% 7% 6% 12%
14% 21% 0%
70% 16% 11% 17%
17% 17%
60% 8%
15%
50%
40% 33% 74%
30% 62% 66% 62%
58% 56%
20% 49%
10% 22%
0%
Overall United States Asia Europe (Ex. United RoW Germany France
UK) Kingdom
Within first month Within the first three months Within the first six months

After six months Not willing to be vaccinated Don't know

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

Figure 29: Given both availability and your willingness, when do you think you
will be vaccinated against covid-19?
100% 6%
8% 6% 8% 13% 4%
90% 14% 6%
9%
80% 17% 17% 21% 25% 28%
17% 26%
70%
30%
60%
33% 19% 34%
50% 35%
40% 39%
40% 41%
30% 43% 28%
20% 33% 32%
33% 28%
10% 15% 26%
17%
0% 5% 8% 1% 4% 5% 0% 0%
Overall United States Asia Europe (Ex. United RoW Germany France
UK) Kingdom

Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 2022 or beyond I won't ever get vaccinated

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

Deutsche Bank AG Page 11

 Figure 30: Compared to your thoughts a month ago, is the current vaccine roll
out in your country ...
100% 6% 1%
13% 7%
90% 18% 19% 21%
20% 30%
80% 44%
70% 28% 38% 18%
35%
60% 50% 40% 36%
50%
40% 37%
39%
30% 48% 59%
39%
20% 27% 26%
34%
10% 19%
17%
3% 5% 9% 6% 6% 3%
0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Overall United States Asia Europe (Ex. United RoW Germany France
UK) Kingdom
Far exceeding your expectations Exceeding your expectations In line with your expectations

Below your expectations Far below your expectations

Source : dbDIG Survey, Deutsche Bank Research

The authors would like to thanks Anthony Chaimowitz of our dbDig team for his
invaluable support in conducting this survey.

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