sustainability

Article
A Study on the Deduction and Diffusion of Promising
Artificial Intelligence Technology for Sustainable
Industrial Development
Hong Joo Lee * and Hoyeon Oh
Department of Industrial and Management, Kyonggi University, Suwon 443760, Gyeonggi, Korea;
oh_yeon85@naver.com
* Correspondence: blue1024@kgu.ac.kr




Received: 14 May 2020; Accepted: 8 July 2020; Published: 13 July 2020


Abstract: Based on the rapid development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT),
all industries are preparing for a paradigm shift as a result of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Therefore, it is necessary to study the importance and diffusion of technology and, through this,
the development and direction of core technologies. Leading countries such as the United States and
China are focusing on artificial intelligence (AI)’s great potential and are working to establish a strategy
to preempt the continued superiority of national competitiveness through AI technology. This is
because artificial intelligence technology can be applied to all industries, and it is expected to change
the industrial structure and create various business models. This study analyzed the leading artificial
intelligence technology to strengthen the market’s environment and industry competitiveness. We then
analyzed the lifecycle of the technology and evaluated the direction of sustainable development in
industry. This study collected and studied patents in the field of artificial intelligence from the US
Patent Office, where technology-related patents are concentrated. All patents registered as artificial
intelligence technology were analyzed by text mining, using the abstracts of each patent. The topic was
extracted through topic modeling and defined as a detailed technique. Promising/mature skills were
analyzed through a regression analysis of the extracted topics. In addition, the Bass model was applied
to the promising technologies, and each technology was studied in terms of the technology lifecycle.
Eleven topics were extracted via topic modeling. A regression analysis was conducted to identify the
most promising/mature technology, and the results were analyzed with three promising technologies
and five mature technologies. Promising technologies include Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual
Reality (VR), Image Recognition and Identification Technology. Mature technologies include pattern
recognition, machine learning platforms, natural language processing, knowledge representation,
optimization, and solving. This study conducts a quantitative analysis using patent data to derive
promising technologies and then presents the objective results. In addition, this work then applies the
Bass model to the promising artificial intelligence technology to evaluate the development potential
and technology diffusion of each technology in terms of its growth cycle. Through this, the growth
cycle of AI technology is analyzed in a complex manner, and this study then predicts the replacement
timing between competing technologies.

Keywords: artificial intelligence technology; promising technology; Bass diffusion model; USPTO
analysis; technology diffusion; innovation

Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609; doi:10.3390/su12145609 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability

Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 2 of 15

1. Introduction

The Business Phenomenon

Industries worldwide, including manufacturing, are preparing for a paradigm shift as a result of
the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has emerged as a key growth
engine in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. In the past, artificial intelligence has repeatedly experienced
stagnation due to the limitations of technology, but advancements have recently been made due to the
rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT). According to an International
Data Corporation (IDC) report on the “Artificial Intelligence System Market”, the global cognitive
computing and artificial intelligence system market is expected to grow at an annual average of 55.1%
over the next five years from 2016 to 2020. Tractica forecasts that the AI market will expand from
about USD 60,000 in 2016 to about USD 368 billion in 2025 in the Global Market Forecast report [1].
In addition, McKinsey predicted that the ripple effect of knowledge and labor automation through
artificial intelligence would range from USD 5.2 trillion to USD 6.7 trillion per year by 2025.
Hence, it is important to study the prospects of leading technologies in the field that can utilize
artificial intelligence because companies are curious about which AI technologies to use and the
lifecycle length of the technology. In other words, to ensure industrial growth, it is necessary to
present the leading research and direction of AI technology in the industry based on the importance,
maturity, and market acceptance of this technology. This will lead to continuous development and
enhanced competitiveness.
Thus, this paper analyzed AI patent technology and AI technology trends. Patents are known to
contain more than 90% of the technical information existing in the world, and 80% of the technical
information existing in patent documents is not published in any other form of document [2].
Therefore, patents are a major competitive strategy to categorize commercial value based on the source
information of technology; researchers use patent analysis as a practical tool to infer various types
of information [3,4].
The patent analysis is obtained from various pieces of information included in the patent
documents. The patent documents consist of technology implementation contents, the technology
classification code, citation information, and owner information [5]. Analyzing these patents is
important because it means that technology changes, trends, levels, and commercial values can
be identified [6,7].
Information about the technology contained in the patent document can be used to explore changes
in the field and obtain information for technological innovation. In addition, it is possible to monitor
the technology to be analyzed and develop a technology development strategy [8]. Accordingly, many
researchers have conducted studies using patent information to analyze and predict technology trends,
establish strategic technology plans, and explore promising technologies [9].
The following research questions were prepared to solve this realistic problem:

• First, which AI technology will be most useful in future industrial sites?

• Second, in which direction is the most promising AI technology developing?
• Third, how can one predict the lifecycle of AI technology?

This study used topic modeling to derive detailed technologies (topics) in the field of artificial
intelligence. For the detailed technology (topics) derived, promising technology is derived through
periodic trend analysis and prospect/decrease analysis. The growth cycle of technology was analyzed
via the Bass diffusion model, which can predict the growth curve of promising technology. Through
the abstracts of patents, this paper explored artificial intelligence technology and studied promising
technologies via topic modeling to analyze the connectivity and potential of keywords using text mining.
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 17
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 3 of 15

2. Theoretical Background
2. Theoretical Background
2.1. Diffusion of Technology
2.1. Diffusion of Technology
The diffusion of technology can be seen as innovation occurring by exchange and distribution
withinThea diffusion
social systemof technology
for a certaincanamount
be seen ofas time,
innovation
through occurring by exchange
a diffusion and The
channel [10]. distribution
form of
within
diffusiona social systemin
is expressed fora acumulative
certain amount
graph of time,
over through
time, whichaisdiffusion
generallychannel [10].
called the The form
Growth of
Curve
diffusion is expressed in a cumulative graph over time, which is generally
Model [11]. The growth pattern assumed by the growth curve model shows the overall cumulative called the Growth Curve
Model
rate in [11]. The growth
the form patternas
of an S shape, assumed
the growthby the growth
rate curveatmodel
increases shows the
the beginning overall
and then cumulative rate
decreases after
in the form of an S shape, as the growth rate increases at the beginning and then decreases
a certain period of time [12]. The growth model is used to predict the demand and diffusion pattern after a certain
period
of new of time [12]. The
technologies and newgrowth modeland
products is used to predict
to establish thethe
timedemand
of new and diffusion
product pattern
launches, of new
the time of
technologies and newproducts,
disposal of existing products and and to establish
the time ofthe time ofand
research newdevelopment
product launches,
[12]. the
Thetime of disposal
growth curve
of existing
model products,
is used as a and the time of research
representative analysisand development
method to analyze [12].the
Thedevelopment
growth curvestagemodelofis specific
used as
atechnologies.
representativeThe analysis
model method
can beto analyze
used tothe development
monitor the levelstageofofdevelopment
specific technologies. The model
or to predict the
can be used toofmonitor
development the level
technology [13],ofand
development
research is or being
to predict the development
conducted to analyzeofthe technology [13],
technology’s
and research is being conducted to analyze the technology’s lifecycle.
lifecycle.
The lifecycle of technology consists of four steps: introduction, introduction, growth,
growth, maturity,
maturity, and
and decline.
decline.
This can be schematized as in Figure 1 [14].
Figure 1 [14].

Figure 1. Technology lifecycle.

2.2. Bass Diffusion

2.2. Bass Diffusion Model
Model
As
As aa method
method for for analyzing
analyzing thethe technology
technology lifecycle,
lifecycle, the
the Bass
Bass diffusion
diffusion model
model is
is known
known to to show
show
the
the size
size of
of the
the market
marketbased
basedon onpast
pastdata
data[15].
[15].ItItwas
wasfirst
firstproposed
proposedbybyFrank FrankM.M. Bass
Bassinin1969 [16]
1969 and
[16] is
and
aismathematical conversion model based on Rogers’ (1962) [10] innovation
a mathematical conversion model based on Rogers’ (1962) [10] innovation diffusion theory. The diffusion theory. The model
is used is
model toused
predict to the demand
predict for new products
the demand or services.
for new products or It is a typical
services. It ismethod
a typicaltomethod
express the spread
to express
of
theinnovation as an initialas
spread of innovation model of the
an initial S-shaped
model of thefunction
S-shaped model.
function model.
The
The Bass model currently considers only two segments, thethe
Bass model currently considers only two segments, market
market andand potential
potential market,
market, and
and
assumes that two factors, innovation and imitation, have the greatest impact on innovation [15]. [15].
assumes that two factors, innovation and imitation, have the greatest impact on innovation The
The innovation effect is defined as an innovator for a group that adopts
innovation effect is defined as an innovator for a group that adopts new technologies and new new technologies and new
products
products by by making
making independent
independent decisions
decisions without
without external
external influence,
influence, and and uses
uses thethe innovation
innovation
coefficient
coefficient (p) as a parameter to reflect this. The imitation effect defines a group that imitates other
(p) as a parameter to reflect this. The imitation effect defines a group that imitates other
people
people toto purchase
purchase new new products
products duedue to
to internal
internal influences,
influences, and and uses
uses the
the imitation
imitation coefficient
coefficient (q)
(q) as
as
aa parameter
parameter to to reflect
reflect this. The assumption
this. The assumption is is that
that someone
someone who who has has not
not yet
yet adopted
adopted an an innovation
innovation
follows
follows the
the linear
linear function. This can
function. This can bebe expressed
expressed as as Equation
Equation (1). F(t) is
(1). F(t) is the
the differentiation
differentiation ofof F(t).
F(t).
𝑓(𝑡)
f (t)
= p𝑝 +
= + qF
𝑞𝐹(𝑡)
(t) (1)
(1)
11 −
− F𝐹(𝑡)
(t)
where F(t): probability of total potential demand being adopted by time t (cumulative probability
density function); f(t): probability that some of the potential demand for innovative technologies will
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 4 of 15

where F(t): probability of total potential demand being adopted by time t (cumulative probability
density function); f(t): probability that some of the potential demand for innovative technologies
will be adopted at time t (probability density function); p: innovation factors affecting the adoption
of innovative technologies (independent influence independent of existing demand); q: imitation
coefficient (how the existing demand affects the demand at time t) indicating how much people are
trying to imitate innovative technology.
When the total new demand (potential demand) of the product for the entire period at time t is
N (t)
m, and the number of existing adopters is N(t), it can be expressed as F(t) = m . Using this, we can
derive F(t) from Equation (1) as in Equation (2).

1 − e−(p+q)t
F(t) = q (2)
1 + p e− ( p + q ) t

dF(t) p(p + q)2 e−(p+q)t

f(t) = =  2 (3)
dt
p + qe−(p+q)t
Multiplying Equation (2) by the potential demand m and F(t) yields N(t), the cumulative number
of adopters for innovative technologies at time t, as in Equation (4). In the Bass diffusion model,
N(t) is determined by the expression of the innovation coefficient p, the imitation coefficient q, and the
potential demand m, and the demand model is determined by estimating it.
 
1 − e−(p+q)t
N (t) = m  q
 (4)
1 + p e−(p+q)t

dN (t) p ( p + q ) 2 e− ( p + q ) t
n(t) = = (5)
dt (p + qe−(p+q)t
In the Bass model, the left and right sides are asymmetrical around the inflection point. In addition,
even if the scale of m is unknown, the parameters p and q can be directly estimated if only the
accumulated demand N(t) is known. However, because the estimates of m and p, q are closely related,
if the estimation is inaccurate due to insufficient data, the probability of the incorrect estimation of
both p and q increases [17].

3. Literature Review

3.1. Method of Patent Analysis

It is statistically simple to compile and compare patents filed in the general way. However,
recent studies have been changing to apply a precise patent analysis methodology using large amounts
of bibliographic information [9]. At the macroscopic level of patent analysis, studies measuring
the economic impact of technology development or evaluating the technological competitiveness
of the country are common. Through this, it is possible to grasp the internal and external linkage
structure of technology development trends. In the microscopic aspect of patent analysis, studies are
being conducted to determine the technical strengths and weaknesses of competitors, plan corporate
technology development activities, derive the priorities of research and development, find technical
gaps, and present opportunities for new technologies [18,19].
Suzuki et al. (2008) [20] used International Patent Classification (IPC) codes to classify the Research
and development status of companies in terms of the integration of technologies in the same field
and the integration of heterogeneous technologies and judged them from a technology convergence
perspective through simultaneous classification analysis.
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 5 of 15

Jeong (2011) [21] developed a technology roadmap through patent analysis and applied text
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 17
mining to perform technology planning based on a technology roadmap. Through this, undeveloped
technologies
Curranand andcharacteristics
Leker (2011)of [22] technologies
observedthat a need to be developed
convergence between in the future wereusing
technologies proposed.
the
Curran and Leker (2011) [22] observed a convergence between technologies
simultaneous classification analysis of IPC and grasped the degree of convergence technology based using the simultaneous
classification
on the possibilityanalysisthatofthe
IPCIPCandofgrasped
a specificthepatent
degreeappears
of convergence technology
simultaneously based on
in patents the possibility
in other fields.
that the
KimIPC et ofal.a(2012)
specific patent
[23] studied appears simultaneously
a methodology and systemin patents in other fields.
for expressing technology causality in
Kim et al.
technology (2012) [23]asstudied
information a network a methodology
using patent and system for
information andexpressing
providingtechnology
knowledge causality
to supportin
technology
technologyinformation
convergence. as a network using patent information and providing knowledge to support
technology
Karvonen convergence.
et al. (2012) [24] analyzed the technology convergence using the patent’s bibliographic
Karvonen
information et conducted
and al. (2012) [24] analyzed
a patent the relationship
citation technology convergence
analysis at the using the patent’s
intersection of thebibliographic
traditional
information
paper industry andand conducted a patent
the electronic citationvia
industry relationship
Radio-FrequencyanalysisIdentification
at the intersection
(RFID)ofcases.
the traditional
paper industry and the electronic industry via Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) cases.
3.2. Promising Technology Analysis Method
3.2. Promising Technology Analysis Method
Today, the rapid development of technology has shortened the lifecycle of technology, and the
needToday, the rapid technology
for continuous development of technology
development has shortened
is increasing. the lifecycle
Accordingly, many of technology,
companies and and
the need for
countries are continuous
focusing on technology
discovering development is increasing.
core technologies Accordingly,
that can many companies
lead industries, products, and and
countries
services. areAs focusing on discovering
the importance core technologies
of technology grows, it is,that can lead
in turn, industries,
becoming products,important
increasingly and services. to
As he importance
analyze the technology of technology
information grows, thatit emerges
is, in turn, becoming
globally and increasingly
predict new important
technologies. to analyze
However, the
technology information is
predicting technologies that emerges globally
time-consuming and and predict
costly; new technologies.
it is difficult However, predicting
to obtain corresponding results.
technologies
Therefore, is time-consuming
researchers are and costly;various
studying it is difficult
technologyto obtain corresponding
forecasting results. to analyze
methodologies
promising
Therefore,technologies
researchers thatarecanstudying
lead to new technologies
various technology and innovative
forecastingideas [25]. The concept
methodologies of a
to analyze
promisingtechnologies
promising technology can thatbecaninterpreted
lead to new in various ways depending
technologies and innovative on the viewpoint.
ideas [25]. The It isconcept
often
ofreferred to as atechnology
a promising future technology, promising in
can be interpreted technology,
various ways emerging technology,
depending on thenew technology,
viewpoint. It is
breakthrough
often referred totechnology,
as a futureor key technology.
technology, promising technology, emerging technology, new technology,
Promising
breakthrough technologies
technology, can technology.
or key be found by predicting the trend and status of technologies that can
be noticed
Promising in the future for technologies
technologies can be found inbya specific
predictingfield.theThere
trendare
and two mainofapproaches
status technologies to finding
that can
promising
be noticed intechnologies
the future for[5]: first, there
technologies in aare trendfield.
specific analyses
There and
are twobibliometrics
main approaches as methods
to finding of
quantitative technology prediction, using statistical analysis and machine
promising technologies [5]: first, there are trend analyses and bibliometrics as methods of quantitative learning algorithms [5].
The secondprediction,
technology is a qualitative
using technology
statistical prediction
analysis and methodology
machine learning for observing
algorithmstechnology
[5]. Thetrends
second viais
aexpert meetings
qualitative and disagreements;
technology this includesfor
prediction methodology scenario
observing analysis, tree relevance
technology trends via methods, and the
expert meetings
Delphi method.
and disagreements; this includes scenario analysis, tree relevance methods, and the Delphi method.

4.4.Research
ResearchMethod
Method

4.1.
4.1.Research
ResearchProcess
Process
The
The research
research process
process for
for this
this study
study is
is as
as Figure
Figure 2. First, patent
2. First, patent data
datain
in the
thefield
fieldofofartificial
artificial
intelligence were
intelligence were collected
collected from
from the United States
States Patent
Patent and
and Trademark
TrademarkOffice
Office(USPTO)
(USPTO)website.
website.
Second,the
Second, theabstracts
abstractsof
ofpatents
patents were
were analyzed,
analyzed, and
and the main keywords were extracted
extracted asas nouns.
nouns.
Third,aadata
Third, datapreprocessing
preprocessing process
process was
was conducted
conducted for analysis. Fourth,
Fourth, artificial
artificialintelligence
intelligence
technology was
technology was extracted
extracted and
and defined
defined using
using thethe topic
topic modeling
modeling technique.
technique. Finally,
Finally, promising
promising
technologieswere
technologies werestudied
studiedthrough
through aa regression
regression analysis
analysis of the extracted technologies.
technologies.

Figure Research process.

Figure 2. Research process.

4.2. Data Collection

Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 6 of 15

4.2. Data Collection

In this study, patent data registered in the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO)
were used to determine the scope of patents in the field of artificial intelligence. This study collected
9556 registered patents from the US Patent and Trademark Office website between 2010 and 2019.
Table 1 shows that Class 706 (the classification code assigned by the USPTO to the field of artificial
intelligence technology) includes patents that describe the use of artificial intelligence technology in
data processing. The USPTO further defines Class 706 as “the classification of patents for artificial
intelligence computers, digital data processing systems, and corresponding data processing methods
and knowledge processing systems”. Table 1 shows the classifications of sub-technologies in the
AI field.
However, the USPTO changed the patent classification system to Cooperative Patent Classification
(CPC) instead of US Class classification system in 2015 and the USPTO has been using the CPC instead
of the US Class for international universality. In this paper, patents registered after 2016 in the artificial
intelligence field were collected from the CPC codes G06N, G06K, and G06Q.

Table 1. USPTO artificial intelligence technology classification code.

Artificial Intelligence Field Technology Code Sub-Technology Code Major Technology

-Fuzzy logic hardware
Problem inference and solution 706 1~11 -Multiple treatment system
-Specific user interface
Machine learning 706 12~25 -Machine learning
-Adaptation system
Network structure 706 26~44
-Neural network
-Knowledge processing system
-Knowledge expression and
Knowledge processing system 706 45~62
reasoning technology
-Rule-based reasoning system
-Fuzzy logic
AI application 706 900~934
-AI application

The registered patents were more valuable than patent pending because they recognize patent
registration for technologies with a certain level of newness. In general, after a patent is filed, it
goes through a review process, and the patent is released after about 18 months [2]. In this paper,
the registered patents were collected and analyzed from 2010, and the number of patents collected is
the same as Table 2.

Table 2. Number of patent applications for each year subject to analysis.

Year Number of Patent Applications Year Number of Patent Applications

2010 1011 2015 852
2011 1195 2016 399
2012 1250 2017 497
2013 1482 2018 566
2014 1577 2019 727

4.3. Data Processing

This study utilized the abstracts of the patents that summarize key elements of the patent. Since the
patent document is text-based, unstructured data and a preprocessing process that can standardize
the data that are required for analysis. The entire process of data preprocessing was performed with
the statistical package R via a text mining package. Here, 9556 patent documents were collected and
refined based on five criteria (Table 3). Thus, words were extracted in noun units from the abstract of
the patent. In addition, uppercase letters were changed to lowercase letters for the extracted words
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 7 of 15

(lowercase). In addition, stop words such as surveys, articles, and special characters included in the
extracted words were removed. Next, stemming was performed for the plural and past forms of each
standard English word.
Based on the keywords created through the above process, this paper created a matrix between
documents and keywords and constructed a document-term matrix (DTM)—a matrix with a frequency
value. Finally, this study constructed and analyzed DTMs with 9556 documents and 10,098 keywords.

Sustainability 2020, 12, x FORTable 3. Preprocessing

PEER REVIEW standard of patent abstract. 8 of 17

Criteria Method
Table 3. Preprocessing standard of patent abstract. Example
Distributed // management // with // embedded //
1 Tokenization
Criteria Separate by keyword
Method Example // apps // is // disclosed
agents // in // enterprise
Distributed // management
distributed // with //
// management // embedded //
with // embedded //
2 1 Tokenization
Lowercase conversion Separate by keyword
Lowercase conversion agentsagents
// in // //
enterprise // apps //
in // enterprise // is // disclosed
apps // is // disclosed
Lowercase distributed // management // with // embedded //
2 Eliminate stop words
Lowercase such as articles,
conversion distributed // management // // embedded // agents //
3 Stop words removed
conversion
investigations, and conjunctions agents////enterprise
in // enterprise // apps // is // disclosed
// apps // // disclosed
Stop words Eliminate stop words such as articles, distributed // management // // embedded //
3 Extract words that are the root of distribute // management // // embed // agent // //
4 Stem extraction
removed investigations, and conjunctions agents // // enterprise // apps // // disclosed
keywords (remove -es, -s, -ed, etc.) enterprise // app // // disclose
Extract words that are the root of distribute // management // // embed // agent //
4 Stem extraction distribute // management // // embed // agent // // //
5 Low-frequency removal keywords (remove
Remove words -es,less
used -s, -ed,
thanetc.)
10 times// enterprise // app // // disclose
app // // disclose
Low-frequency distribute // management // // embed // agent //
5 Remove words used less than 10 times
removal // // app // // disclose
4.4. Patent Abstract Topic Modeling
4.4. Patent Abstract Topic Modeling
The topic model is a method for finding a topic within a document cluster and classifying the
The topic model is a method for finding a topic within a document cluster and classifying the
documents according to the topic. It is a generative probabilistic model that allows the subject to be
documents according to the topic. It is a generative probabilistic model that allows the subject to be
extracted through
extracted a grouping
through technique
a grouping techniquethat thathas
has a similarmeaning
a similar meaning to words
to words that
that are are in
latent latent
the in the
document group.group.
document The algorithms
The algorithms used
usedininthethe topic modelinclude
topic model include Latent
Latent SemanticSemantic Indexing
Indexing (LSI), (LSI),
Probabilistic LatentLatent
Probabilistic Semantic
SemanticIndexing
Indexing(pLSI),
(pLSI), andand Latent
Latent Dirichlet
Dirichlet Allocation
Allocation (LDA). In(LDA).
general, In
thegeneral,
the LDA algorithm is widely used [26]. The LDA was suggested by supplementing theaabsence
LDA algorithm is widely used [26]. The LDA was suggested by supplementing the absence of
document-level probability model in the existing pLSI. The LDA algorithm is a probabilistic
of a document-level probability model in the existing pLSI. The LDA algorithm is a probabilistic
algorithm based on a Dirichlet distribution, where each document is considered to have multiple
algorithm basedInon
subjects. a Dirichlet
addition, a word distribution,
is generated where
for eacheach document
subject, is considered
and the probability to have amultiple
of generating
subjects.document
In addition, a word
is derived byismodeling
generated thefor each subject,
distribution and the
of subjects probability
in the document of andgenerating a document
the probability
is derived bya word
that modeling the distribution
is generated for each subjectof subjects
[26]. in the document and the probability that a word is
generated for Ineach
addition, LDA[26].
subject makes the basic assumption of words interchangeable. The bag-of-words
method focuses on which words appear rather than the order in which they appear. For example,
In addition, LDA makes the basic assumption of words interchangeable. The bag-of-words
“The apple is red” and “Red is the apple” are recognized as the same sentence. LDA estimates the
method parameters
focuses on(α,which words appear rather than the order in which they appear. For example,
β) through the word distribution and frequency of the received documents. Through
“The apple
theseisparameters,
red” and the “Redwordis (W)
the is apple” are recognized
determined for each topicasviathe
the same sentence.
topic ratio LDA
(θ) of each estimates the
document
parameters
and (α, β) through
the allocation the
topic (Z)word
of each distribution
word. Figure and 3 is afrequency of the received
model that visually shows the documents.
process of LDAThrough
[27]. Topic modeling
these parameters, the word can classify
(W) documents more
is determined flexibly
for each because
topic via ittheuses a method
topic ratioof(θ) estimating
of each thedocument
posterior probability under conditions that are not independent of words in each document in the
and the allocation topic (Z) of each word. Figure 3 is a model that visually shows the process of
parameter estimation process.
LDA [27]. Topic modeling can classify documents more flexibly because it uses a method of estimating
Therefore, in this study, topic modeling characteristics were applied to analyze patents in the
the posterior probability
field of under conditions
artificial intelligence. Through this,that technologies
are not independent
in the field of of words
artificialinintelligence
each documentwere in the
parameter estimation
extracted, process. technologies were studied for extracted technologies.
and prospective

Figure 3. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) processing. Note: whole documentation (D), each individual
Figure 3. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) processing. Note: whole documentation (D), each
document (d), number of words (N), number of topics (K), determining the parameters (θ) that indicate
individual document (d), number of words (N), number of topics (K), determining the parameters (θ)
which subject proportions
that indicate the proportions
which subject documentthe will make up
document will(α),
makeDirichlet distribution
up (α), Dirichlet (β),(β),
distribution topic
topicratio for
document d (θd),
ratio topic assignment
for document d (θd), topicfor the nth for
assignment wordthe in
nthdocument d (Zd,n),d and
word in document nth
(Zd,n), andword observed in
nth word
documentobserved in document d (Wd,n).
d (Wd,n).
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 8 of 15

Therefore,
Sustainability in this
2020, 12, study,
x FOR topic modeling characteristics were applied to analyze patents in the9field
PEER REVIEW of 17
of artificial intelligence. Through this, technologies in the field of artificial intelligence were extracted,
5.
andResearch Results
prospective technologies were studied for extracted technologies.

5.1. Topic Modeling

5. Research Results
TopicModeling
5.1. Topic modeling was conducted to extract technologies in the field of artificial intelligence. Topic
modeling requires researchers to select the number of topics in advance. One of the methods for
Topic modeling
determining the optimal wasnumber
conducted to extract
of topics technologies
is to select the lowestin number
the fieldofoftopics
artificial intelligence.
measured in the
Topic result,
LDA modelingi.e., requires researchersmatrix
the topic-keyword to select the number of topics in advance. One of the methods for
[28].
determining the optimal
In this study, the cosinenumber of topics
similarity is todocument
for each select thewas
lowest
usednumber of topics
to determine the measured in the
optimal number
LDA result, i.e., the topic-keyword matrix [28].
of topics (=K). The cosine similarity is closer to one as the similarity between documents becomes
In this
higher. study, the
Therefore, cosine
there similarity
is less for each document
topic similarity with a lower wascosine
used to determineThe
similarity. theselection
optimal number
criteria
of topics (=K). The cosine similarity is closer to one as the similarity between documents
for the number of topics were based on the low cosine similarity. Figure 4 shows how the similarity becomes
higher.changes
value Therefore,withthere
the is
K less topic
value, similarity
such as fromwith
K =afive
lowerto cosine similarity.
11. These The
are clear selection
data criteria
that show thefor
K
the number
selection. of topics were based on the low cosine similarity. Figure 4 shows how the similarity value
changes with the K value, such as from K = five to 11. These are clear data that show the K selection.

Figure 4.
Figure Analysis of
4. Analysis of cosine
cosine similarity
similarity value
value change
change with
with K
K value.
value.

In this study, the number of topics was set from five to 11 by referring to Table 1, and the results of
In this study, the number of topics was set from five to 11 by referring to Table 1, and the results
cosine similarity by topic number were equal to Table 4.
of cosine similarity by topic number were equal to Table 4.
Finally, in this study, the number of topics was 11, and the number of sampling repetitions was
Finally, in this study, the number of topics was 11, and the number of sampling repetitions was
5000. The basic values of α and β for LDA were used, and the Gibbs sampling method was used.
5000. The basic values of α and β for LDA were used, and the Gibbs sampling method was used. For
For the entire process of topic modeling, R packages “topic models” [29] and “LDA” [30] were used.
the entire process of topic modeling, R packages “topic models” [29] and “LDA” [30] were used.
The LDA model should estimate the post-probability of the latent variable when the document
Table 4. Cosine similarity by number of topics.
is given. One of the inference methods for this is Gibbs sampling [31]. Gibbs sampling is a
probabilistic algorithm that
K generates a series of samples
Cosine Similarity K from a combined
Cosine Similarityprobability distribution
of two or more random5 variables [31]. 0.0310Gibbs sampling9 is one of the Markov chain Monte Carlo
0.0296
(MCMC) algorithms that6 estimates the distribution mix
0.0307 10 [31]. The Gibbs
0.0285 Sampler has a disadvantage
in that the convergence is7 slow due 0.0296 11
to the large dependence 0.0276
between variables. To improve this, the
8 0.0295
Collapsed Gibbs Sampler omits some unnecessary variables from the sampling [32].

Table 4. Cosine
The LDA model should estimate similarity by number
the post-probability of theoflatent
topics.
variable when the document is
given. One of the inference methods for this is Gibbs sampling [31]. Gibbs sampling is a probabilistic
K Cosine Similarity K Cosine Similarity
algorithm that generates a series of samples from a combined probability distribution of two or more
5 0.0310 9 0.0296
6 0.0307 10 0.0285
7 0.0296 11 0.0276
8 0.0295
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 9 of 15

random variables [31]. Gibbs sampling is one of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms
that estimates the distribution mix [31]. The Gibbs Sampler has a disadvantage in that the convergence
is slow due to the large dependence between variables. To improve this, the Collapsed Gibbs Sampler
omits some unnecessary variables from the sampling [32].

5.2. Extraction and Prospect of Artificial Intelligence Technology through Topic Modeling
The results for 11 topics are summarized in Table 5 due to the analysis of patents in the field of
artificial intelligence since 2010 via topic modeling. Topics were selected from the top 50 words by
topic, and 15 words representing each topic are shown in Table 5. To verify the topic labeling suggested
in Table 5, this paper administered a questionnaire to some 30 experts. Table 5 shows the analysis
results of reliability verification through the Cronbach’s Alpha coefficient. Experts participating in the
survey are those who have been involved in research and work for more than 20 years in the field of
AI technology.

Table 5. Technology and core linked words by artificial intelligence field.

Artificial Intelligence Cronbach’s Alpha

Topic Core Linked Words
Technology Coefficient
user, predict, content, event, recommend, behavior, item,
Topic 1 Action Recognition 0.6977
interaction, service, social, model, action, web, profile, media
node, graph, state, pattern, problem, network, constraint,
Topic 2 Pattern Recognition 0.7188
tree, transit, variable, quantum, path, sequence, layer, match
image, video, reality, augment, optic, recognition, audio,
Augmented Reality
Topic 3 scene, virtual, display, motion, garment, signal, 0.6258
(AR)/Virtual Reality (VR)
individuality, content
image, document, item, color, user, product, identification,
Topic 4 Image Recognition 0.7244
object, device, person, capture, content, account, card, digit
print, image, inform, code, locate, product, item, medic,
Topic 5 Vision AI 0.6081
device, tag, vehicle, transport, object, patient
train, feature, classification, vector, predict, model, set,
Topic 6 Machine Learning Platforms 0.7931
cluster, value, data, sample, learn, class, probable, weight
Natural Language document, train, score, classification, feature, query, set,
Topic 7 0.6571
Processing model, rank, predict, text, word, entity, page, search
neuron, signal, card, magnet, neural, spike, circuit,
Topic 8 VLSI emulation, payment, synapse, layer, pulse, stripe, input, 0.7240
reader
rule, knowledge, service, semantic, policy, decision,
Topic 9 Knowledge Representation ontology, set, engine, system, execution, manage, event, 0.6235
request, application
model, predict, parameter, solution, control, optimal, state,
Topic 10 Optimization and Solving estimate, value, conditional, calculation, measure, behavior, 0.6939
learn, time
device, image, wireless, authenticator, communication, tag,
Topic 11 Identification Technology mobile, secure, access, reader, capture, RFID, card, object, 0.7231
biometric

5.3. Analysis of Promising and Declining Technologies in Artificial Intelligence

Prospective and mature technologies were analyzed through linear regression analysis by using
the trend of the specific gravity of topics by year for each technology (topic), extracted through the
topic model.
A regression analysis was also performed using year as an independent variable and the weight
of each technology (topic) as a dependent variable. The coefficient of regression (slope) of linear
regression was used as a criterion for determining the rise and fall of each technique (topic) [33].
In addition, in this study, the Durbin–Watson value was used to test the suitability of the regression
model [31]. The regression analysis assumes the independence of the residuals. In particular, time series
data can suffer from the independence of the residuals. This is because the residuals of the previous
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 10 of 15
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 17

The
period arefrequency
more likelyof to
the appearance
affect of artificial
the residuals intelligence
of the later technologies
period. Among over with
the topics timesignificant
was also
analyzed (Figures
probability within 4the
and 5) via the technology
significance level (p-value < 0.05)inofTable
analyzed 6.
the regression analysis, the subjects were
those with Durbin–Watson values greater than one and less than three.
Table
The frequency 6. Technology
of the appearance andof key link words
artificial by artificial
intelligence intelligence
technologies (AI)time
over field.
was also analyzed
(Figures 4
Topic and 5) via the technology
Name analyzed in Table 6.
Coefficient p-Value Durbin–Watson Hot/Cold
Topic 1 Action Recognition −0.00686 0.048 0.945 X
Table 6. Technology and key link words by artificial intelligence (AI) field.
Topic 2 Pattern Recognition −0.00867 0.000 1.114 Cold
Topic
Topic 3 Name
Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR)Coefficient
0.01279 p-Value
0.002 Durbin–Watson
1.343 Hot/Cold
Hot
Topic
Topic 1 4 Image
Action Recognition
Recognition 0.02168
−0.00686 0.001
0.048 1.071
0.945 HotX
Topic
Topic2 5 Pattern Recognition
Vision AI −0.00867
0.02615 0.000
0.000 1.114
0.928 Cold
X
Topic 3 Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR) 0.01279 0.002 1.343 Hot
Topic
Topic 4 6 Machine Learning Platforms
Image Recognition −0.01495
0.02168 0.001
0.001 1.006
1.071 Cold
Hot
Topic
Topic5 7 NaturalVision AI Processing
Language 0.02615
−0.00953 0.000
0.026 0.928
1.095 X
Cold
Topic 6 Machine Learning Platforms −0.01495 0.001 1.006 Cold
Topic 8 VLSI 0.00124 0.311 0.917 X
Topic 7 Natural Language Processing −0.00953 0.026 1.095 Cold
Topic
Topic 8 9 KnowledgeVLSIRepresentation −0.01924
0.00124 0.000
0.311 1.543
0.917 Cold
X
Topic
Topic9 10 Knowledge Representation
Optimization and Solving −0.01924
−0.02109 0.000
0.001 1.543
1.087 Cold
Cold
Topic 10 Optimization and Solving −0.02109 0.001 1.087 Cold
Topic
Topic 11 11 Identification
Identification Technology
Technology 0.01848
0.01848 0.013
0.013 1.135
1.135 Hot
Hot

Figure 5. Promising (Hot) artificial intelligence technology.

Figure 5. Promising (Hot) artificial intelligence technology.
The results are summarized in Table 6. The technique (topic) showing a positive regression
The results are summarized in Table 6. The technique (topic) showing a positive regression
coefficient was analyzed in three categories: Topic 3, 4, and 11. An analysis of the promising technologies
coefficient was analyzed in three categories: Topic 3, 4, and 11. An analysis of the promising
is shown in Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR), Image Recognition, and Identification
technologies is shown in Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR), Image Recognition,
Technology (Table 6); these are marked as Hot. Five technologies (topics) classified as mature
and Identification Technology (Table 6); these are marked as Hot. Five technologies (topics)
technologies (pattern recognition, machine learning platform, natural language processing, knowledge
classified as mature technologies (pattern recognition, machine learning platform, natural
representation and optimization and solving) were analyzed, and described as Cold in Table 6.
language processing, knowledge representation and optimization and solving) were
In addition, the range of the utilization of AR/VR technology expanded with the recent development
analyzed, and described as Cold in Table 6.
of 5G technology, and the market (equipment, content, etc.) using realistic media has been attracting
attention. The market was originally formed in entertainment industries such as games and videos,
In addition, the range of the utilization of AR/VR technology expanded with the recent
development of 5G technology, and the market (equipment, content, etc.) using realistic media has
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 17
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 11 of 15

been attracting attention. The market was originally formed in entertainment industries such as
games and videos, but it has recently been spreading to various industries such as medical care,
but it has recently been spreading to various industries such as medical care, education, shopping,
education, shopping, and manufacturing.
and manufacturing.
In addition, the development of image Identification Technology such as facial recognition can
In addition, the development of image Identification Technology such as facial recognition can
be used for crime investigation, smart cities, etc. It can improve the safety and convenience of life.
be used for crime investigation, smart cities, etc. It can improve the safety and convenience of life.
Meanwhile, the development of technologies related to identification seems to be expected, as the
Meanwhile, the development of technologies related to identification seems to be expected, as the
importance of information protection and security becomes more important due to the development
importance of information protection and security becomes more important due to the development of
of new technologies.
new technologies.
The technologies classified as mature technologies are early technologies in the field of artificial
The technologies classified as mature technologies are early technologies in the field of artificial
intelligence or technologies that have appeared actively in the past and are not dealt with much at
intelligence or technologies that have appeared actively in the past and are not dealt with much at
present. Mature technologies are actively developed and have reached a plateau of development.
present. Mature technologies are actively developed and have reached a plateau of development.
Figure 6 is a result of analyzing the mature (cold) artificial intelligence technology by year and ration
Figure 6 is a result of analyzing the mature (cold) artificial intelligence technology by year and ration
of topic.
of topic.

Figure
Figure 6.
6. Mature
Mature (Cold)
(Cold) artificial
artificial intelligence
intelligence technology.
technology.

5.4. Diffusion
5.4. Diffusion Model
Model of
of Promising
Promising Artificial
Artificial Intelligence
Intelligence Using
Using the
the Bass
Bass Diffusion
Diffusion Model
Model
Three promising
Three promising technologies were derived
technologies were through regression
derived through regression analysis
analysis among
among 1111 technologies
technologies
(topics) extracted by analyzing patents in the field of artificial intelligence via topic modeling.
(topics) extracted by analyzing patents in the field of artificial intelligence via topic modeling. In In this
this
study, three promising technologies (topics) were analyzed using the Bass diffusion model
study, three promising technologies (topics) were analyzed using the Bass diffusion model using the using the
cumulative number
cumulative number of of each
each year;
year; these
these were
were then
then analyzed
analyzed in in terms
terms ofof the
the technology growth cycle
technology growth cycle
to examine the development stage of each technology until 2040. In addition, when
to examine the development stage of each technology until 2040. In addition, when the number of the number of
patents
patents expected
expectedfor
foreach
eachyear
yearreached
reachedthe themaximum
maximum value,
value,thethe
maturity
maturity period waswas
period analyzed, andand
analyzed, the
growth
the period
growth and and
period the maturity period
the maturity werewere
period classified based
classified on the
based onmaximum.
the maximum.In addition, the data
In addition, the
were analyzed
data were whenwhen
analyzed the rate
theof patent
rate production
of patent flattened
production or began
flattened to decline.
or began to decline.

Bass Diffusion
Bass Diffusion Model
Model Parameter
Parameter Estimation
Estimation Method
Method
The Bass
The Bass diffusion
diffusion model
model should
should estimate
estimate three
three parameters: potential market
parameters: potential market size
size m,
m, innovation
innovation
coefficient p, and imitation coefficient q.
coefficient p, and imitation coefficient q. Methods for estimating parameters include initial data
Methods for estimating parameters include initial data
utilization, expert experience, and similar case application [31]. There are three methods
utilization, expert experience, and similar case application [31]. There are three methods for for estimating
parameters using the initial
estimating parameters usingdata.
the initial data.
First, there is an ordinary least
First, there is an ordinary least squares
squares approach
approach using
using the
the parameter estimation method
parameter estimation method of of the
the
multiple regression
multiple regression Equation
equation (5).
[15].Second,
Second, there
there is maximum
is maximum likelihood
likelihood estimation
estimation thatthat establishes
establishes the
the likelihood function using the probability function of given data; this is used to estimate
likelihood function using the probability function of given data; this is used to estimate the parameter the
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 17

[31]. Third, there is a nonlinear least square (NLS) method—a multidimensional nonlinear parameter
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 12 of 15
estimation method that minimizes the sum of squared errors between the difference between the
estimated value and the measured value [34]. Of these, the NLS method is known to have the highest
parameter
prediction [31]. Third,
accuracy there
[33]. is a nonlinear
Therefore, theleast
NLSsquare (NLS)was
method method—a
used multidimensional
in this study, and nonlinear
the innovation
parameter estimation method that minimizes the sum of squared errors between the difference between
coefficient (p), imitation coefficient (q), and potential market (m) were estimated. The NLS analysis
the estimated value and the measured value [34]. Of these, the NLS method is known to have the
was carried out using
highest prediction R’s “nls”
accuracy [33]. function.
Therefore, the NLS method was used in this study, and the innovation
coefficient (p), imitation coefficient (q), and potential market (m) were estimated. The NLS analysis was
5.5. Diffusion
carried outAnalysis
using R’sof“nls”
AI Technology
function.

5.5. Diffusion Analysis of AI Technology

5.5.1. Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality (AR/VR)
5.5.1. Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality (AR/VR)
AR/VR technology is forecast to have 2899 cumulative patents by 2040; it likely matured in 2018
AR/VR technology
and will decline in 2027. Inis the
forecast
“Top to 10
have 2899 cumulative
Strategic TechnologypatentsTrends
by 2040;Forit likely
2019”matured in 2018 by Gartner,
announced
and will decline in 2027. In the “Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2019” announced by Gartner,
technology for immersive experiences has been selected as a core future technology for building next-
technology for immersive experiences has been selected as a core future technology for building
generation digital digital
next-generation business ecosystems.
business ecosystems.ItItis expected
is expected to create
to create innovative
innovative services services via integration
via integration
with with
various industries.
various industries. AR/VR technology
AR/VR technology is used
is used for rehabilitation
for rehabilitation treatment in treatment
the medicalin theand
field medical field
and monitoring
monitoring andand quality
quality control
control in thein the manufacturing
manufacturing field. It is field.
expectedIt is expected
that that AR/VR
AR/VR technology will technology
be used
will be usedininother fields
other such as
fields education
such to create new
as education to added
createvalue.
new Figure
added 7 isvalue.
the result of analyzing
Figure 7 is the result of
the spread trend of AR/VR technology.
analyzing the spread trend of AR/VR technology.

Figure 7. Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR).

Figure 7. Augmented Reality (AR)/Virtual Reality (VR).
5.5.2. Image Recognition
5.5.2. Image Recognition
Image Recognition technology is expected to have 2814 cumulative patents by 2040; its maturity
likely occurred in 2018, and a decline is expected in 2028. Image Recognition technology allows one to
Image Recognition
accurately distinguish technology
and recognizeisthe
expected to have
shape of things 2814
rather cumulative
than patents
people. This by 2040; its maturity
offers appropriate
likelyinformation
occurred andin 2018, and
services a decline is expected in 2028. Image Recognition technology allows one
to users.
These technologies will enable companies
to accurately distinguish and recognize to innovate
the shape products
of things ratherand services.
than people.Given
Thisthat all ofappropriate
offers
the information
information we use to
and services is imageable,
users. Image Recognition technology can likely be applied to most
industries. Figure 8 is the result of analyzing the spread trend of image recognition technology.
These technologies will enable companies to innovate products and services. Given that all of
the information we use is imageable, Image Recognition technology can likely be applied to most
industries. Figure 8 is the result of analyzing the spread trend of image recognition technology.
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 17
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 13 of 15
Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 17

Figure 8. Image Recognition.

Figure 8. Image Recognition.
Figure 8. Image Recognition.
5.5.3. Identification Technology
5.5.3. Identification Technology
5.5.3.Identification
Identification Technology
Technology is estimated to have matured in 2016 with peak technological
Identification Technology is estimated to have matured in 2016 with peak technological
development in 2025.
Identification The number
Technology is of cumulative
estimated to patents in 2040 isin
have matured estimated to bepeak
2016 with 2373. This certifies
development in 2025. The number of cumulative patents in 2040 is estimated to be 2373.technological
This certifies
that individuals
development can
in 2025. use biometrics as an Identification Technology. Biometrics will
Thisbe a key
that individuals can The
use number of cumulative
biometrics patents in 2040
as an Identification is estimated
Technology. to be 2373.
Biometrics will certifies
be a key
authentication
that individuals means
can for
use information
biometrics and
as communication
an Identification technology
Technology. (ICT) services.
Biometrics will be a key
authentication means for information and communication technology (ICT) services.
Automatically
authentication means identified results
for information have reduced
and communicationthe hassle of processes,
technology and users
(ICT) services. are provided
Automatically identified results have reduced the hassle of processes, and users are provided
with Automatically
convenience and efficiency.
identified These
results technologies
have reduced willhassle
the be used
of to detect personal
processes, and security
users are and risk
provided
with convenience and efficiency. These technologies will be used to detect personal security and
situations
with such
convenience as airport
and search stations or to customize the personalized automation usedrisk
in
risk situations such asefficiency. Thesestations
airport search technologies will be used
or to customize thetopersonalized
detect personal security and
automation used in
autonomous
situations vehicles.
such Figuresearch
as airport 9 is thestations
result oforanalyzing the spread
to customize trend of identification
the personalized automationtechnology.
used in
autonomous vehicles. Figure 9 is the result of analyzing the spread trend of identification technology.
autonomous vehicles. Figure 9 is the result of analyzing the spread trend of identification technology.

Figure 9. Identification Technology.

Figure 9. Identification Technology.
6. Conclusions Figure 9. Identification Technology.
6. Conclusions
This study analyzed three promising technologies from the perspective of technology growth
6. Conclusions
This study analyzed
cycles by applying the Bassthree
model;promising
these were technologies
summarizedfrom the 7.
in Table perspective of technology
The technologies with the growth
highest
cycles by
cumulative applying
number
This study the Bass
of patents
analyzed model;
three(market these were summarized
size) technologies
promising appeared as AR/VR, in
from the Table
Image 7. The technologies
Recognition,
perspective with the
and Identification
of technology growth
highest
cycles cumulative
Technology,
by applying number
in that the
order. of
BassThe patents
results
model; (market
suggest
these size)
werethat appeared as
Image Recognition
summarized AR/VR,
in Table 7.willImage
Thelikely Recognition,
have thewith
technologies and
greatest
the
Identification
development
highest Technology,
potential
cumulative inof
in the
number that order.(market
future.
patents The results
size)suggest
appearedthatas
Image Recognition
AR/VR, will likely have
Image Recognition, and
the greatest development
Identification Technology,potential in theThe
in that order. future.
results suggest that Image Recognition will likely have
the greatest development potential in the future.
Sustainability 2020, 12, 5609 14 of 15

Table 7. Technology lifecycle of promising technologies in artificial intelligence.

Promising Technology in Cumulative Number of Technology Limits

Topic Maturity
Artificial Intelligence Patents (Market Size) (Decline)
Topic 3 AR/VR 2899 2018 2027
Topic 4 Image Recognition 2814 2018 2028
Topic 11 Identification Technology 2373 2016 2025

This study can find meaning as an early piece of academic research exploring artificial intelligence
technology using patents in the field of artificial intelligence. In addition, a quantitative analysis using
patent data as a method of deriving promising technologies was conducted to present objective results.
In addition, while exploring promising technologies, we applied the Bass model to predict the
maturity and decline stages through a detailed analysis of the technology growth cycle. We then
suggested the development potential of each technology. The results can be used as basic data for R&D
and product and service planning for each technology.

Research Limitations and Future Research

In this paper, USPTO patent data were collected and analyzed, but the data provided were
limited and difficult to analyze. Therefore, it is necessary to collect and analyze patent data from other
leading countries.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, H.J.L. and H.O.; data curation, H.J.L. and H.O.; formal analysis, H.J.L.
and H.O.; funding acquisition, H.J.L.; methodology, H.J.L. and H.O.; resources, H.J.L. and H.O.; Validation,
H.J.L. and H.O.; Visualization, H.J.L. and H.O.; writing and editing, H.J.L. and H.O. The views and opinions
expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone. All authors have read and agreed to the published version
of the manuscript.
Funding: This work was supported by the Gyeonggi-do Regional Research Center (GRRC) program of
Gyeonggi province.
Conflicts of Interest: The author declares no conflict of interest.

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