Bjorn's Corner: Can I get COVID-19 in airline cabins? Part 1. - Le... https://leehamnews.com/2020/05/08/bjorns-corner-can-i-get-co...

There's more to real news than a news

release.

Bjorn’s Corner: Can I get COVID-19

in airline cabins? Part 1.
May 8, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our Corner DOWNLOAD

series, we now dig into this important subject: Is

my probability of getting infected with the COVID-19 virus higher
in an airliner cabin than in other places?

We look at simulations of how the virus travels when we

breathe/cough and how the virus load propagates in an airliner
cabin. Then we talk about infection probabilities compared with
other environments.

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Figure 1.

What are the spreading mechanisms of

COVID-19?

The scientists are sure the main infection path is when inhaling
droplets coming from exhaled breathing air from an infected
person.

Recent simulations by Florida Atlantic University using a

simulated aerosol with the smaller and more dangerous droplets
(10 to 20 microns in size) show the finer droplets travel up to 3m
(10 feet) after a cough, and these can hover in the air for a
minute after the cough. Figure 1’s upper part shows the
beginning of this process (the stripes in the cloud are from laser
lighting effects).

The Florida Atlantic University video with different cough

simulations is here.

We got the right to show the simulations and asked Professor

Dharak to make a simulation with a face mask. The difference is

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dramatic, Figure 1 lower part.

The virus can also survive a day or more on a non-porous

surface (to not dry out so fast) like a metal handle or our mobile
phones. To be infected, the virus must then be brought to our
nose, mouth, or eyes by our hands, and there enter our tissues.

This is why regular handwashing is so important and why

handwashing or rinsing hands with alcoholic gel after touching
public surfaces are recommended.

The probability of getting the virus to the lungs where they can
cause a dangerous infection is much higher through the aerosol
path than the touch path. There is still no clear evidence of a
touch path infected patient, according to the experts.

When flying on an airliner post-COVID, both paths are in focus.

The droplet/aerosol path

The danger of inhaling infectious droplets/aerosol depends on

how far it travels from the infected person and how long it stays
airborne. In areas without a directional airstream displacing the
droplets/aerosol from our breathing level, the risk is higher.
Figure 1 is such a case.

Examples thereof are any indoor confinements like shops,

stations, trains, buses, work areas, and airport check-in or
waiting areas.

Airliner cabins do not count to this category. The Environmental

Control System preparing the air we breathe in aircraft builds on
a directional airflow from top to bottom. The flow, which is
substantial (the air is exchanged in the cabin every other
minute), enters at the roof level and travels down to the floor
area, where it exits through air vents in the outer walls besides

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our shoes.

As the air goes back to the air conditioning system in the belly of
the aircraft, it passes HEPA (High-Efficiency Particulate Air)
filters that catch the rather large COVID-19 viruses. The air is
then mixed with new air from the aircraft engine compressors
and enters the cabin at the roof level to retake its journey
downwards to the outlets sitting at the bottom of the cabin walls.

This orderly airflow will be disturbed by movements in the cabin,

and this is why probably the highest risk of contamination is
during boarding and deplaning the cabin. The risk during flight is
lower, supported by examples given by IATA in the week (see
below).

As seen in Figure 1, the mask minimizes the risk of an infected

person propagating virus droplets to neighbors in the cabin.
Once past the floor outlets, HEPA filters catch the virus. The
mask born by neighbor passengers adds additional protection
from inhaling any residue aerosol from an infected co-
passenger.

Wearing masks

Wearing masks has been part of Asian culture for decades.

When I first saw it during travel in Japan, I thought, “people are
nervous about getting infected here.” I was wrong. It’s not the
persons fearing an infection that wears the mask; it’s the
infected person. Asians with flu put on a mask of courtesy to
other people.

This is a habit we should adopt, not only in COVID times.

“And we should stop the stupid hand-shake,” says the chief US

immunologist Dr. Fauchi. “It has no place in modern society, not
now and not after the Pandemic.” This leads us to the touch

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path.

The touch path

While scientists are clear over the aerosol path, the touch path is
intellectually plausible but with a lower probability of infection.
How low is not clear as there has been no cases or studies that
have proven such an infection chain.

The chain is possible, and the use of an alcoholic gel after

touching common areas such as lavatory handles and
doorknobs, etc. shall minimize this risk path. The mask, in
addition, makes inadvertent touching the sensitive nose and
mouth tissues more difficult.

Summary

IATA (the association of the world’s airlines) issued

recommendations in the week ahead of a re-starting of flying.
Masks for passengers and crew are imperative, and we
understand why.

IATA also points to none of the known flights, where post-flight

confirmed COVID-19 infected passengers traveled, resulting in
infected co-passengers. There were three cases of a passenger
to crew infections however, as here, the communication is face
to face. Once again, mask-wearing makes sense (this was
before crews and passengers wore masks).

We have asked Airbus and Boeing to support us in explaining

the in-cabin airflow better, and we will dig deeper into this in the
next Corner.

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Category: Airbus, Bjorn's Corner, Tags: Airbus, Boeing, COVID-19,

Boeing, COVID-19 Infection risk in cabin

← Better to bring capacity back with a 777X or 777-300ER? Part 2

Pontifications: Boeing focuses on design, production vs airplane
development–for now →

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