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result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Itaú Unibanco
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Inflation has been above the target range mid-point in the last few
years. By the end of 2011, the 5-year moving average for the IPCA
should reach 5.3%, considering our own 5.8% forecast for this year. In
normal years or years with benign shocks, the IPCA has hovered around
target, but in years with adverse shocks, inflation rises to the upper-
limit of the target range. Throughout the decade, we estimate average
inflation at about 5.0%. With the drop in the neutral interest rate as the
years go by, the benchmark Selic rate should converge to one digit.
A higher growth rate in the long run (above 5%) would require
productivity gains or additional increases in investment. Resuming the
reform agenda, maintaining the current macroeconomic framework
(floating exchange rate, inflation targeting, fiscal surplus), lifting public
investment in infrastructure and lowering the tax burden could
potentially boost productivity. Another relevant factor is education. The
GDP differential between Latin America (and Brazil in particular) and
developed countries is largely explained by the difference in education
levels. The number of years of study in Brazil has been rising recently,
but the quality is improving slowly. We believe the adoption of the
above-mentioned measures would push the growth rate to a higher
level than we forecast.
In short, we believe global growth will be supported by emerging
countries and commodity prices will keep going up. The outlook for the
Brazilian economy is one of stronger growth than in past decades. Also,
we expect: (i) partial convergence of the real interest rate to
international standards; (ii) higher investment to GDP ratio; (iii)
inflation under control, but above the target range mid-point; (iv) fiscal
expansion with an emphasis on public investment and lower
government debt; (v) the increase in investment will be financed by
foreign capital inflows, as internal savings are not enough to meet the
need of resources for investment, and finally (vi) the current-account
deficit will be higher and the real exchange rate will remain on an
appreciating path, but at a slower pace. Bottom line, the scenario is
consistent with the trends that are taking shape nowadays.
Ilan Goldfajn
Chief Economist
Felipe Salles
Economist
Itaú Unibanco
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
World Economy
World GDP growth -0.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
CRB Index 360 436 553 580 594 619 645 661 677 694 704 715
Brazil
External Sector & Exchange Rate
Nominal BRL / USD – eop 1.74 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.66 1.65 1.69 1.75 1.79 1.85 1.93 2.00
Real BRL / USD – (2010 = 100) 2.02 1.76 1.64 1.62 1.58 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.59 1.62
Trade balance – USD bn 25 20 15 3 -3 -10 -7 -7 -2 -1 8 19
Current Account – USD bn -24 -48 -69 -103 -108 -121 -122 -127 -130 -139 -137 -135
Current Account – % GDP -1.5% -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -3.8% -3.7% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.1% -2.9%
Economic Activity
Real GDP Growth -0.6% 7.5% 4.0% 3.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Total Savings and Investment
Investment (% GDP) 16.5% 19.3% 20.4% 21.0% 21.7% 22.4% 22.6% 22.8% 22.8% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6%
External Savings - 2.3% 2.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%
Domestic Savings 14.7% 17.1% 17.6% 17.0% 18.0% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.6% 19.7% 19.7%
Inflation
IPCA 4.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
IGP–M -1.7% 11.3% 6.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Interest Rate
Selic – eop 8.75% 10.75% 12.50% 11.50% 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 10.00% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Real interest rate (Selic/IPCA) - eop 5.6% 4.7% 5.8% 6.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Public Finances
Primary Budget Balance – % GDP 2.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Fiscal Budget Balance – % GDP -3.3% -2.6% -3.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.5% -3.3% -3.1% -2.9% -2.8% -2.7%
Net Public Debt – % GDP 42.8% 40.4% 39.5% 39.2% 38.3% 37.7% 37.0% 36.1% 35.2% 34.3% 33.4% 32.5%
Source: Itaú Unibanco, BCB, IBGE and Haver
*/See a more detailed table on the following page
Itaú Unibanco
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Memo:
Rollover Rate 185% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170%
2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Total Gross External Debt 256 279 305 333 365 399 436 475 517 561 607
Medium and Long Term External Debt $Bi 199 222 248 276 308 342 379 418 460 504 550
Short Term External Debt $Bi 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57
Medium and Long Term Debt Rollover Rate 185% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170%
Short Term Debt Rollover Rate /1 184% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
International Reserves $Bi 288 329 332 365 385 410 437 467 497 534 580
Medium and Long Term Debt Amortizations $Bi /2 34 34 36 40 46 49 52 56 60 63 66
Total Net Inflow $Bi /3 51 24 25 28 32 34 37 39 42 44 46
Net Total External Debt $Bi /4 -53 -71 -61 -53 -41 -31 -21 -12 -1 6 6
Net Total External Debt %GDP -2.5% -3.0% -2.3% -1.8% -1.2% -0.9% -0.6% -0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
1/ Estimate considers stocks estimated by the central bank in Dec/09 and Dec/10
2/ Considers remaining assets abroad: ~$ 20 bln
3/ Includes short term
4/ Estimates consider short-term debt stock as of Dec/10
Itaú Unibanco
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Memo:
Tax Elasticity 1.17 1.11 1.54 1.33 1.23 1.14 1.08 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.00
Source: National Treasury, BCB and Itaú
Itaú Unibanco
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
World Economy
World GDP growth -0.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
USA -2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Euro Area -4.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Japan -6.3% 4.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
China 9.1% 10.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.1% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6%
CRB Index 360 436 553 580 594 619 645 661 677 694 704 715
Brazil
External Sector & Exchange Rate
Nominal BRL / USD – eop 1.74 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.66 1.65 1.69 1.75 1.79 1.85 1.93 2.00
Nominal BRL / USD – year avg 1.99 1.76 1.68 1.70 1.68 1.63 1.67 1.72 1.77 1.81 1.90 1.97
Real BRL / USD – (2010 = 100) 2.02 1.76 1.64 1.62 1.58 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.59 1.62
Exports – USD bn 153 202 242 253 301 350 406 461 523 584 646 713
Imports – USD bn 128 182 227 250 304 361 414 467 525 585 638 694
Trade balance – USD bn 25 20 15 3 -3 -10 -7 -7 -2 -1 8 19
Total Trade Flows (exp + imp) – % GDP 18% 18% 20% 19% 21% 22% 23% 25% 26% 27% 29% 30%
Current Account – USD bn -24 -48 -69 -103 -108 -121 -122 -127 -130 -139 -137 -135
Current Account – % GDP -1.5% -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -3.8% -3.7% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.1% -2.9%
Foreign Direct Investment – USD bn 26 48 58 65 72 82 89 93 98 105 109 114
Foreign Direct Investment – % GDP 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
International reserves, cash – USD bn 239 288 329 332 365 385 410 437 467 497 534 580
International reserves – % GDP 14.9% 13.9% 13.7% 12.8% 12.7% 11.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.6% 11.9% 12.3%
Economic Activity
Nominal GDP – BRL bn 3,185.1 3,654.3 4,039.9 4,403.5 4,839.5 5,316.7 5,844.3 6,423.8 7,063.0 7,747.1 8,492.8 9,301.0
Nominal GDP – USD bn 1,598.4 2,076.0 2,401.7 2,590.3 2,875.2 3,262.2 3,504.1 3,732.1 3,991.1 4,279.3 4,473.5 4,720.7
Real GDP Growth -0.6% 7.5% 4.0% 3.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Total Savings and Investment
Investment (% GDP) 16.5% 19.3% 20.4% 21.0% 21.7% 22.4% 22.6% 22.8% 22.8% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6%
Public Investment (% GDP) - 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
External Savings - 2.3% 2.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%
Domestic Savings 14.7% 17.1% 17.6% 17.0% 18.0% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.6% 19.7% 19.7%
Public Savings - -2.4% -2.5% -2.4% -1.3% -0.9% -0.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%
Private Savings - 19.4% 20.1% 19.4% 19.3% 19.5% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.1% 20.1%
Inflation
IPCA 4.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
IGP–M -1.7% 11.3% 6.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Interest Rate
Selic – eop 8.75% 10.75% 12.50% 11.50% 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 10.00% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Selic – year avg 9.9% 10.00% 12.19% 12.29% 10.84% 10.63% 10.42% 10.16% 9.87% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Real interest rate (Selic/IPCA) - eop 5.6% 4.7% 5.8% 6.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Public Finances
Primary Budget Balance – % GDP 2.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Fiscal Budget Balance – % GDP -3.3% -2.6% -3.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.5% -3.3% -3.1% -2.9% -2.8% -2.7%
Net Public Debt – % GDP 42.8% 40.4% 39.5% 39.2% 38.3% 37.7% 37.0% 36.1% 35.2% 34.3% 33.4% 32.5%
Source: Itaú Unibanco, BCB, IBGE and Haver
Itaú Unibanco
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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011
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