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Macro Vision

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Brazil 2020: The future as


seen today

It is not an easy task. But once a year here at Itaú Unibanco, we


dare to forecast a macroeconomic scenario for the next 10 years.
It is our Brazil 2020. The scenario contemplates art — which
external and economic policy trends will be dominant? — as well
as science — the rigor of consistency in a general equilibrium
model. The current scenario keeps some characteristics from the
previous version (see ―Brazil 2020: what is the trail?‖, published
Nov. 23, 2009), but also incorporates some relevant changes.
We maintained the view that Brazil will invest more than it did in
the past, mostly financed by external savings and, thanks to a
recent productivity gain, will be able to maintain growth between
4% and 5% in coming years. There will be an impact from the
discovery of pre-salt oil fields on investment, but also on the
Macroeconomic Research

trade balance. Notwithstanding eventual frights, Brazil will


remain stable macroeconomic-wise and the trend of interest
rates converging to international levels should continue.

But some characteristics are different from the previous version.


We forecast fiscal policy will remain expansive (declining primary
budget surplus over the years, after an adjustment in 2011), but
with relocation of resources from current expenditures to public
investment, whenever possible. The consumer price index IPCA
should remain within its target range, but possibly above its mid-
Ilan Goldfajn – Chief Economist
point. We believe the absence of reforms, the high tax burden
and inflation still at a relatively-high level should be reflected on
Agustina De Marotte a loss of vigor in productivity growth in the second half of this
Adriano Lopes
Aurélio Bicalho
decade. Real domestic interest rates do converge, but not
Caio Megale entirely, to international levels, as some uncertainty regarding
Darwin Dib fiscal policy and inflation remains. Thus, we expect real interest
Felipe Salles
Fernando Avalos
rates at 4.5% in 2020. We forecast commodity prices will keep
Giovanna Siniscalchi going up worldwide, albeit slowly, due to structural factors
Guilherme da Nóbrega (demand from China and India, as well as the deterioration of
João Pedro Bumachar Resende
Laura Haralyi climate conditions around the world, which should hurt
Luiz G. Cherman agricultural supply). Thus, the real exchange rate (discounting
Mauricio Oreng inflation) should keep appreciating, but at a pace that will be
Natasha de Almeida Daher
Roberto Prado quite less intense than in the last few years (the nominal rate
Tomás Málaga actually weakens to R$ 2/US$, so as to partially compensate
macroeconomia@itau-unibanco.com.br
inflation).

Please refer to the last page of this report for important disclosures, analyst and additional information. Itaú
Unibanco or its subsidiaries may do or seek to do business with companies covered in this research report. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of
this report. Investors should not consider this report as the single factor in making their investment decision.
Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

The global economy should grow at a pace slightly below 4.0%


throughout the next decade. The composition of growth will be
heterogeneous. Emerging nations will continue to have robust
performance and their share in the global GDP will widen. Advanced
economies will have a difficult decade, due to unfavorable demographic
dynamics and to the effects of the 2008 crisis.

In Brazil, we estimate the economy will expand between 4.5% and


5.0% in the mid-decade. The acceleration of trend growth at the margin
is explained by three factors. First, we forecast a higher investment rate
as a share of GDP, implying larger growth for the stock of capital.
Second, productivity growth should be slightly higher than nowadays,
due to reforms and advancements that already occurred. Third, the
start of activities in the pre-salt region will lead to larger oil output in
coming years. By the end of the decade, we should witness a slow-
down in the pace of growth to below 4.5%. We expect a less favorable
demographic dynamic, leading to slower growth in the workforce and
lower growth for the economy's total productivity (due to the lack of
reforms, increase in the tax burden and uncertainties regarding
inflation).

The drop in the Debt-to-GDP ratio and the maintenance of


macroeconomic stability imply a continuation of the convergence
process of domestic interest rates to near-international levels. This
process creates room for an increase in the investment rate to about
22.5% of GDP. Other factors will contribute to boost investment. There
are commitments related to the 2014 FIFA Soccer World Cup and the
2016 Olympic Games. Oil exploration in the pre-salt region will also
demand significant expenditures in coming years. Moreover, the
country needs to improve infrastructure in many areas, such as energy
and transportation. The global context favors investment in emerging
countries whose consumer markets have high growth potential. Brazil in
particular has benefited from the ascent of a new middle class, with
high propensity to spend.

Domestic savings, especially in the public sector, are insufficient to


meet this larger investment need. That means investment will be partly
supported by a widening current-account deficit, which will likely be in
the range of 3.0% to 4.0% of GDP throughout the decade. Recent gains
in the terms of trade and the improvement in the oil trade balance due
to the pre-salt fields prevent an even-wider gap. There are no
immediate risks related to the sustainability of external accounts in
Brazil. The deficit's magnitude is not high, and the composition of global
growth attracts foreign investors intent on financing it. Brazil's net
external liability should increase, but at a sustainable path. In the event
of an unexpected reversal in foreign investors' disposition to finance
Brazil's current account gap, the exchange rate would weaken to
restore balance in external accounts. Also, as an increasing share of
external liabilities is denominated in local currency, the scenario of
currency devaluation would also produce an immediate drop in external
liabilities. In that sense, it is crucial to maintain a floating exchange rate
to avoid incentives to indebtedness in foreign currency.

We believe Brazil's real exchange rate will continue on a trail of slight


appreciation in coming years. Two factors explain this movement. First,
terms of trade benefited from higher commodity prices, which should
keep rising in coming years. Second, fiscal policy will still pressure
aggregate demand, and an appreciation is needed to reestablish
equilibrium in the goods market. However, this appreciation could be
avoided. A reduction in government spending over the years would
lower pressure on aggregate demand, creating room for a weaker

Itaú Unibanco
-2-
Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

exchange rate and lifting competiveness among Brazilian companies,


causing the current-account deficit to contract.

Inflation has been above the target range mid-point in the last few
years. By the end of 2011, the 5-year moving average for the IPCA
should reach 5.3%, considering our own 5.8% forecast for this year. In
normal years or years with benign shocks, the IPCA has hovered around
target, but in years with adverse shocks, inflation rises to the upper-
limit of the target range. Throughout the decade, we estimate average
inflation at about 5.0%. With the drop in the neutral interest rate as the
years go by, the benchmark Selic rate should converge to one digit.

The debate on fiscal policy should be of a different nature from what we


got used to in past years. In the previous decade, discussions on fiscal
policy were focused on the need for fiscal surpluses to ensure the
sustainability of public debt. Fortunately, the Brazilian economy
matured. Nowadays, the most relevant discussion is about the quality
of public spending and the impact of government dissaving on the
financing of the country's investment needs. Ideally, there should be
less spending and a drop in the tax burden, as well as higher
government investment on infrastructure, bringing beneficial effects to
total productivity in the economy in the long run. We do not forecast
tax cuts, but believe government outlays will be redirected, as much as
possible, from current spending to public investment.

A higher growth rate in the long run (above 5%) would require
productivity gains or additional increases in investment. Resuming the
reform agenda, maintaining the current macroeconomic framework
(floating exchange rate, inflation targeting, fiscal surplus), lifting public
investment in infrastructure and lowering the tax burden could
potentially boost productivity. Another relevant factor is education. The
GDP differential between Latin America (and Brazil in particular) and
developed countries is largely explained by the difference in education
levels. The number of years of study in Brazil has been rising recently,
but the quality is improving slowly. We believe the adoption of the
above-mentioned measures would push the growth rate to a higher
level than we forecast.
In short, we believe global growth will be supported by emerging
countries and commodity prices will keep going up. The outlook for the
Brazilian economy is one of stronger growth than in past decades. Also,
we expect: (i) partial convergence of the real interest rate to
international standards; (ii) higher investment to GDP ratio; (iii)
inflation under control, but above the target range mid-point; (iv) fiscal
expansion with an emphasis on public investment and lower
government debt; (v) the increase in investment will be financed by
foreign capital inflows, as internal savings are not enough to meet the
need of resources for investment, and finally (vi) the current-account
deficit will be higher and the real exchange rate will remain on an
appreciating path, but at a slower pace. Bottom line, the scenario is
consistent with the trends that are taking shape nowadays.

Ilan Goldfajn
Chief Economist

Felipe Salles
Economist

Itaú Unibanco
-3-
Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Table 1 – Summarized* Long-Term Scenario


2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

World Economy
World GDP growth -0.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
CRB Index 360 436 553 580 594 619 645 661 677 694 704 715

Brazil
External Sector & Exchange Rate
Nominal BRL / USD – eop 1.74 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.66 1.65 1.69 1.75 1.79 1.85 1.93 2.00
Real BRL / USD – (2010 = 100) 2.02 1.76 1.64 1.62 1.58 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.59 1.62
Trade balance – USD bn 25 20 15 3 -3 -10 -7 -7 -2 -1 8 19
Current Account – USD bn -24 -48 -69 -103 -108 -121 -122 -127 -130 -139 -137 -135
Current Account – % GDP -1.5% -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -3.8% -3.7% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.1% -2.9%
Economic Activity
Real GDP Growth -0.6% 7.5% 4.0% 3.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Total Savings and Investment
Investment (% GDP) 16.5% 19.3% 20.4% 21.0% 21.7% 22.4% 22.6% 22.8% 22.8% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6%
External Savings - 2.3% 2.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%
Domestic Savings 14.7% 17.1% 17.6% 17.0% 18.0% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.6% 19.7% 19.7%
Inflation
IPCA 4.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
IGP–M -1.7% 11.3% 6.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Interest Rate
Selic – eop 8.75% 10.75% 12.50% 11.50% 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 10.00% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Real interest rate (Selic/IPCA) - eop 5.6% 4.7% 5.8% 6.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Public Finances
Primary Budget Balance – % GDP 2.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Fiscal Budget Balance – % GDP -3.3% -2.6% -3.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.5% -3.3% -3.1% -2.9% -2.8% -2.7%
Net Public Debt – % GDP 42.8% 40.4% 39.5% 39.2% 38.3% 37.7% 37.0% 36.1% 35.2% 34.3% 33.4% 32.5%
Source: Itaú Unibanco, BCB, IBGE and Haver
*/See a more detailed table on the following page

Itaú Unibanco

-4-
Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Table 2 - Long-Term Scenario for Savings and Investment


2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Total Savings and Investment


Investment (% GDP) 16.5% 19.3% 20.4% 21.0% 21.7% 22.4% 22.6% 22.8% 22.8% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6%
Public Investment (% GDP) - 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
External Savings - 2.3% 2.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%
Domestic Savings 14.7% 17.1% 17.6% 17.0% 18.0% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.6% 19.7% 19.7%
Public Savings - -2.4% -2.5% -2.4% -1.3% -0.9% -0.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%
Private Savings - 19.4% 20.1% 19.4% 19.3% 19.5% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.1% 20.1%
Source: IBGE and Itaú

Table 3 - Long-Term Scenario for the Balance of Payments


% GDP 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Current Account -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -3.8% -3.7% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.1% -2.9%
Foreign Portfolio Investment 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Foreign Direct Investment 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
Net Foreign Inflow 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Others -1.2% -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Changes in Reserves 2.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0%

Memo:
Rollover Rate 185% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170%

2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Total Gross External Debt 256 279 305 333 365 399 436 475 517 561 607
Medium and Long Term External Debt $Bi 199 222 248 276 308 342 379 418 460 504 550
Short Term External Debt $Bi 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57
Medium and Long Term Debt Rollover Rate 185% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170% 170%
Short Term Debt Rollover Rate /1 184% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
International Reserves $Bi 288 329 332 365 385 410 437 467 497 534 580
Medium and Long Term Debt Amortizations $Bi /2 34 34 36 40 46 49 52 56 60 63 66
Total Net Inflow $Bi /3 51 24 25 28 32 34 37 39 42 44 46
Net Total External Debt $Bi /4 -53 -71 -61 -53 -41 -31 -21 -12 -1 6 6
Net Total External Debt %GDP -2.5% -3.0% -2.3% -1.8% -1.2% -0.9% -0.6% -0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%

1/ Estimate considers stocks estimated by the central bank in Dec/09 and Dec/10
2/ Considers remaining assets abroad: ~$ 20 bln
3/ Includes short term
4/ Estimates consider short-term debt stock as of Dec/10

Source: Itaú and BCB

Itaú Unibanco

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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Table 4 – Fiscal Forecasts for the Long Run


(%GDP) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net Public Debt 40.4% 39.5% 39.2% 38.3% 37.7% 37.0% 36.1% 35.2% 34.3% 33.4% 32.5%
Fiscal Budget Balance -2.6% -3.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.5% -3.3% -3.1% -2.9% -2.8% -2.7%
Primary Budget Balance 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Central Government Balance 1.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
Revenues 19.3% 19.3% 19.6% 19.9% 20.1% 20.2% 20.3% 20.3% 20.3% 20.4% 20.4%
Expenditures 18.1% 17.6% 18.3% 18.8% 19.2% 19.5% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 19.7% 19.7%
Transfers 8.6% 8.6% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2% 9.4% 9.5% 9.7% 9.9% 10.1% 10.3%
Current Spending 8.1% 7.8% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.6% 7.6%
Investment 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
Subsidies 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Subnational Entities Balance 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Memo:
Tax Elasticity 1.17 1.11 1.54 1.33 1.23 1.14 1.08 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.00
Source: National Treasury, BCB and Itaú

Itaú Unibanco

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Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Table 5 - Macroeconomic Long-Term Forecasts


2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

World Economy
World GDP growth -0.6% 4.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7%
USA -2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
Euro Area -4.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
Japan -6.3% 4.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
China 9.1% 10.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.1% 7.5% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6%
CRB Index 360 436 553 580 594 619 645 661 677 694 704 715

Brazil
External Sector & Exchange Rate
Nominal BRL / USD – eop 1.74 1.69 1.70 1.70 1.66 1.65 1.69 1.75 1.79 1.85 1.93 2.00
Nominal BRL / USD – year avg 1.99 1.76 1.68 1.70 1.68 1.63 1.67 1.72 1.77 1.81 1.90 1.97
Real BRL / USD – (2010 = 100) 2.02 1.76 1.64 1.62 1.58 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.59 1.62
Exports – USD bn 153 202 242 253 301 350 406 461 523 584 646 713
Imports – USD bn 128 182 227 250 304 361 414 467 525 585 638 694
Trade balance – USD bn 25 20 15 3 -3 -10 -7 -7 -2 -1 8 19
Total Trade Flows (exp + imp) – % GDP 18% 18% 20% 19% 21% 22% 23% 25% 26% 27% 29% 30%
Current Account – USD bn -24 -48 -69 -103 -108 -121 -122 -127 -130 -139 -137 -135
Current Account – % GDP -1.5% -2.3% -2.9% -4.0% -3.8% -3.7% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.1% -2.9%
Foreign Direct Investment – USD bn 26 48 58 65 72 82 89 93 98 105 109 114
Foreign Direct Investment – % GDP 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%
International reserves, cash – USD bn 239 288 329 332 365 385 410 437 467 497 534 580
International reserves – % GDP 14.9% 13.9% 13.7% 12.8% 12.7% 11.8% 11.7% 11.7% 11.7% 11.6% 11.9% 12.3%
Economic Activity
Nominal GDP – BRL bn 3,185.1 3,654.3 4,039.9 4,403.5 4,839.5 5,316.7 5,844.3 6,423.8 7,063.0 7,747.1 8,492.8 9,301.0
Nominal GDP – USD bn 1,598.4 2,076.0 2,401.7 2,590.3 2,875.2 3,262.2 3,504.1 3,732.1 3,991.1 4,279.3 4,473.5 4,720.7
Real GDP Growth -0.6% 7.5% 4.0% 3.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3%
Total Savings and Investment
Investment (% GDP) 16.5% 19.3% 20.4% 21.0% 21.7% 22.4% 22.6% 22.8% 22.8% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6%
Public Investment (% GDP) - 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6%
External Savings - 2.3% 2.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9%
Domestic Savings 14.7% 17.1% 17.6% 17.0% 18.0% 18.6% 19.1% 19.4% 19.6% 19.6% 19.7% 19.7%
Public Savings - -2.4% -2.5% -2.4% -1.3% -0.9% -0.7% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%
Private Savings - 19.4% 20.1% 19.4% 19.3% 19.5% 19.8% 19.9% 20.0% 20.0% 20.1% 20.1%
Inflation
IPCA 4.3% 5.9% 5.8% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
IGP–M -1.7% 11.3% 6.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Interest Rate
Selic – eop 8.75% 10.75% 12.50% 11.50% 10.75% 10.50% 10.25% 10.00% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Selic – year avg 9.9% 10.00% 12.19% 12.29% 10.84% 10.63% 10.42% 10.16% 9.87% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Real interest rate (Selic/IPCA) - eop 5.6% 4.7% 5.8% 6.6% 5.6% 5.4% 5.2% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Public Finances
Primary Budget Balance – % GDP 2.1% 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Fiscal Budget Balance – % GDP -3.3% -2.6% -3.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.5% -3.3% -3.1% -2.9% -2.8% -2.7%
Net Public Debt – % GDP 42.8% 40.4% 39.5% 39.2% 38.3% 37.7% 37.0% 36.1% 35.2% 34.3% 33.4% 32.5%
Source: Itaú Unibanco, BCB, IBGE and Haver

Itaú Unibanco

-7-
Macro Vision– Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Relevant information

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than, 1% (one percent) of the capital stock of the companies, and may have been involved in the acquisition, sale or trading of
such securities in the market.

5. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report does not take into account the
investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Any investors wishing to purchase or
otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should obtain relevant documents from financial instruments and exchange
institutions and confirm its contents. Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular
circumstances before making an investment decision based on the information contained herein. Final decision on investments
must be made by you considering various risks, fees and commissions. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other
than an investor’s currency, a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from, the
financial instrument, and the reader of this report assumes any currency risk. Income from financial instruments may vary, and
their price or value, either directly or indirectly, may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results,
and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made herein regarding future performances. Itaú Unibanco Group does
not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its content.

6. This report may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior
written consent of Banco Itaú BBA S.A. Additional information on the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon
request.

Additional Note to reports distributed in: (i) U.K. and Europe: Itau BBA UK Securities Limited, regulated by the Financial
Services Authority (FSA), is distributing this report to investors who are Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients,
pursuant to FSA rules and regulations. If you do not, or cease to, fall within the definition of Eligible Counterparty or Professional
Client, you should not rely upon the information contained herein and should notify Itau BBA UK Securities Limited immediately.
The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail customers; (ii) U.S.: Itau BBA USA
Securities, Inc., a FINRA/SIPC member firm, is distributing this report and accepts responsibility for the content of this report. Any
US Person receiving this report and wishing to effect any transaction in any security discussed herein should do so with Itau BBA
USA Securities, Inc. at767 Fifth Avenue, 50th Floor, New York, NY 10153 ; (iii) Asia: This report is distributed in Hong Kong by
Itau Asia Securities Limited, which is licensed in Hong Kong by the Securities and Futures Commission for Type 1 (dealing in
securities) regulated activity. Itau Asia Securities Limited accepts all regulatory responsibility for the content of this report. In Hong
Kong, any investors wishing to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact Itau Asia
Securities Limited at29th Floor, Two IFC, 8 Finance Street – Central, Hong Kong; (iv) Japan: This report is distributed in
Japan by Itau Asia Securities Limited – Tokyo Branch, Registration Number (FIEO) 2154, Director, Kanto Local Finance Bureau,
Association: Japan Securities Dealers Association; (v) Middle East: This information has been distributed by Itaú Middle East
Securities Limited. Related financial products or services are only available to wholesale clients with liquid assets of over $1 million,
and who have sufficient financial experience and understanding, to participate in financial markets in a wholesale jurisdiction. Itaú
Middle East Securities Limited is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). In Middle East, any investors wishing
to purchase or otherwise deal in the securities covered in this report should contact Itaú Middle East Securities Limited, at Al
Fattan Currency House, Suite 305, Level 3, DIFC, PO Box 65703 , Dubai, United Arab Emirates; (vi) Brazil: Itaú Corretora de
Valores S.A., a subsidiary of Itaú Unibanco S.A authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil and approved by the Securities and
Exchange Commission of Brazil, is distributing this report. If necessary, contact the Client Service Center: 4004-3131* (capital and
metropolitan areas) or 0800-722-3131 (other locations) during business hours, from 9:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m., Brasilia time. If you
wish to re-evaluate the suggested solution, after utilizing such channels, please call Itaú’s Corporate Complaints Office: 0800-570-
0011 (on business days from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m., Brasilia time) or write to Caixa Postal 67.600, São Paulo-SP, CEP 03162-
971.

* Cost of a local call.

Itaú Unibanco
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