Livelihood Recovery of Pakistan

Floods
For Punjab Province

Submitted to:

Hadiya Majid

(Faculty member Economics Dept. Lahore University of

Management Sciences)

Submitted by: Ahmad Saffee

Contact:

Ahmad Saffee

Lahore University of Management Sciences, Opposite sector U, DHA

phase 4, Lahore

Cell Number: 00923228661487

E-Mail: ahmadsaffee@gmail.com
The following report is a proposal for a project aimed at
livelihood recovery after floods 2010. Livestock sector has
potential growth and capacity to provide employment to rural
population. A village-community cooperative system is modeled,
where each HouseHold (HH) community participation is ensured.
A sample of five HH is selected, shall be provided with livestock
and dairy animals; that would generate additional income support
system for the affected HH. A feasibility analysis is presented in
the following report that identifies the post flood situation at
micro-macro level, and explains project design that caters to
these issues.

Background of the Project

Situational Analysis

Heavy rains had triggered both flash floods and riverside floods in several
parts of Pakistan since 21 July 2010, resulting in loss of life, essential
items and livelihood sources, major health concerns, and widespread
displacement. As of September 26th, the number of people reported by
the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) as directly affected
by the floods had risen to 20.3 million in 78 districts across the country,
with the majority affected in the provinces of Punjab (8.2 million), Sindh
(7.3 million) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also known as KPK (3.8 million).
The NDMA has also reported over 1.9 million houses as damaged or
destroyed, as well as more than 12,000 school facilities and over 570
health facilities1. The OCHA Situation Report as of November 2010(which
is of latest available) indicates that while returns have started to take
place in northern districts of Sindh, floodwaters are taking longer to
recede, prolonging displacement further south. The report also indicates
that in Punjab, the prevailing trend continues to be one of return, which
increases the needs for rapid scale-up of early recovery interventions. It
reports that 22.5 percent of the population lives on income less than
$1.25 (UNDP Human Development Report (HDR) 2009). Agriculture and
livestock being the backbone to rural economy has so far received only 12
percent of the total funding, where food security takes 22 percent.
Therefore, the present situation demands a shift of focus, from early
recovery to rehabilitation of livelihood and investing more in agriculture
and livestock.

1
Figures sourced from http://www.pakistanfloods.pk/
 Agriculture accounts for 21 percent of the GDP, 45 percent of employment
and 60 percent of the exports.2 The main crops are wheat, cotton, rice,
sugarcane, maize and pulses, of which wheat is currently sown and will be
harvested in April 2011. Previous standing crop was cotton and sugarcane
that was destroyed by the floods. The majority of small farmers cultivate
their own lands but a substantial proportion is of share croppers, many of
them ‘tenant at will’ with no rights to land. Livestock forms an integral
part of the farming system, contributing 52.2 percent share in the
agriculture and for farmers it is a highly liquid asset. Livestock accounts of
11 percent of the GDP and around 10 percent of the national export3.
Buffalo and cattle are mainly kept for milk, and milk alone get more
income to farmer than what he earns from rice, wheat or sugarcane. Most
farming families keep goat, sheep and poultry for home consumption and
sale. Since the agriculture is worst hit by the floods, having implication for
the farmer as the rural life is correlated with the crop cycle. Under the
present, early phase of livelihood recovery, there is a need to invest in
Livestock, as it plays major role in agriculture and as a sustained source of
income for the farmer.

A substantial amount of livestock was killed during the floods, but major
losses have been in flash flood hilly areas and due to slow motion of flood
and early warning system, majority of the livestock has been saved in the
plain areas of Punjab and Sindh. According to prepared jointly by ADB and
World Bank shows that Punjab lost 0.10 percent large animals, 0.033
small animals and 0.004 of poultry4. Still the remaining saved livestock’s
survival is subject to feed, fodder, on farm management and its health
care. Cases of reported diseases, high price of fodder and unclean
drinking water has had a deteriorating effect on the livestock. A number of
families moving away from the flooded areas sold their animals at low
prices. Total losses to livestock statistics is attached at the end. Hence in
the coming months, livestock productivity is expected to fall due to these
external pressures. However, livestock is likely to revive due to better
grazing conditions resulting from fertile soil that after flood. As better

2
Pakistan Floos 2010

Preliminary Damage and Need Assessment Report (Nov 2010)

3
http://binasia.net/binasiadownload/5_6_Dr_Muhammad_Zulfiqar12.pdf
4
Pakistan Floos 2010

Preliminary Damage and Need Assessment Report (Nov 2010)

(the percentage taken out by dividing total losses to total population of X)

grazing conditions have direct effect on animals produce and his health.
Therefore, it implies that better conditions in the future leave us with the
opportunity to invest today in this sector, on modern line and reap the
benefit of it in the coming years that follow.

The flood has badly affected livelihood and infrastructure of the affected
localities. And there is a need to engage people in different livelihood
strategies. The standing cotton crop was destroyed by the floods that left
farmers in utter dismay, many of them debited with loans undertaken for
the crop which stands no more. This has left the farmer in a credit crunch,
which is supplemented with other losses of livestock and expenses of re-
construction. According to the Preliminary Damage and Needs
Assessment report, the total damage in crop and livestock sub-sectors is
estimated at US $5.04 billion, of which 74 percent is in the form of direct
damage and 26 percent in the form of indirect losses. Among the
provinces Sindh suffered thost with 46 percent, followed by Punjab with
36 percent.The government has provided financial aid through the
issuance of ‘watan card’ to each affected household, yet it falls short to
cover any losses. Hence, in this context, it becomes essential to focus on
employment generation and livelihood recovery with the aim to help
capacity building of the poverty stricken rural pockets of Pakistan.

Project Overview

The project is aimed at providing additional support to the affected

household in regenerating livelihood and helping them to rebuild their
losses. The population samples selected is all subsistence farmers and
usually employ in casual labor. Therefore In the initial phase of the
project, a mix composition of livestock and dairy animals will be given to
the selected households. The mix of animals would provide the household
with daily income, coming from daily milk and egg production. The
sheep/goat is used for wool, milk, and meat purposes, usually for
household consumption and can also be sold. Therefore the ‘mix of dairy
animals’ provides support to affected family’s income, and also gives an
opportunity to participate in the livestock and dairy market. The second
phase of the project would concentrate on breeding and expansion of the
existing fleet of animal. Proper breeding methods shall be communicated
to the livestock farmers, with technical knowledge of modern farming. The
poultry industry is very week in the selected area; hence a special
attention shall be given to poultry and modern shed farming. The third
and the final phase would be of diversification, investing in other relevant
sector of education and health care facilities that would lead to better
living standards.
 We have selected district Rajanpur as a site for our experimental project,
and this is because we have an already established community
relationship and over time we have built logistical support. The district
Rajanpur and adjoining areas are known pockets of livestock resource.
Selected households shall be provided with income generating assets on
partnership basis with the community level organization, which is a
subsidiary of the village-level organization. The co-operative system at
village and community level is a tested mechanism. In India studies on
rural cooperatives and rural development show that although this form of
rural organization has its problems, under the modern paradigm of
participatory rural development, such forms of management serves the
best purpose5. This pattern of rural organization is also common in
Pakistan and many successful pilot projects such as the Orangi Pilot
Project were organized along these lines of Village cooperative and
Community Cooperatives.

The Village level organization is a greater body that encompasses

members from different communities and members of the implementation
organization who sit together on table to discuss village issues and
through communal participation provide solutions to these problems. Our
role as an outside, third party intervention is restricted to providing
technical advice and guidance to the village locals. Establishing a relation
that comforts both parties, not subjugating either of the two under the
pretext of master or slave. For first aim is to establish a better relationship
with the community members by providing them guidance and technical
advice to increase their produce and better resource management. The
member of the community level organization would carry the project at
micro-‘mohala’ level and both of these bodies are required to convene on
regular intervals. And the COs and VOs would ensure the accountability of
these households and properly maintain records of daily transactions.
Under these terms and condition we would ensure that he contributes
certain percentage from his profit for the community work, and to that
agreed amount he pays us over duration till he pays initial investment

5
Co-operatives and Rural development in India

KA Suresh & Molly Joseph

A. Co-operative is Voluntary and open membership

B. Democratic management

C. Limited interest

D. Distribution of surplus in proportion to transaction

E. Co-operative education and Co-operation among co-operatives.

with interest. He would be also subjected to provide one animal from the
reproduce. Soon he covers the sanctioned amount and other terms, he
would own the animal and all the profit from it. He would be encouraged
to invest further in ‘our’ relationship and towards his community, and
continue active participation.

The profit generated from the activity will be accumulated in the

community fund that shall be used for the benefit of the community and
for additional funding and expansionary purposes. Further initiatives shall
be undertaken for the recovery of livelihoods for the affected households
that may include providing them with vocational training for skill
development. The small and medium size industry also provides
opportunity for economic development and agro-processing industry is
one potential segment of the industry. Also other strategies related with
food industry, such as organizing small road side restaurants has been
successful in poverty alleviation and in providing self employment. In the
early phase, we shall only cover five households, but with time I am
optimistic about the aspiration of this project and shall increase the scope
of its coverage and functionality.

Project Justification

The structure of agriculture sector is steadily changing with decreasing

minor or major crop yields and the recent floods have raised the
magnitude of this steady change which might lead to food security
issues6. In such a situation, livestock becomes increasingly significant in
providing extra source of sustained income. Livestock has grown 25
percent in 1996 to about 50 percent in value addition to the national
economy in 20067. The present growth in livestock is expected to be 4-5
percent annually of the GDP, which is less than full growth potential of the
sector. The MTDF (2005-10) includes livestock sector with potential means
to rural poverty alleviation; with providing instances of self-employment;

6
Wheat price hike increases poverty in Pakistan: WB

DAWN:

ISLAMABAD, Feb 17

7
Livestock Sector Strategy

for Government of the

Punjab (April 2010)

and with an increasing demand. With dairy animals being moved out from
Urban city, there has been an immense pressure on the rural sector in
providing with Milk and other dairy products. The global prices of livestock
and dairy products are increasing with time, and it is time we start
exploiting the available potential in this sector- livestock and dairy
management. Hence, livestock sector provides with growth potential and
with better future prospects. With this experimental pilot project we
contribute in a positive manner to the society and academia in
establishing bases for the future.

Livestock holdings in Pakistan are more fragmented and small holders

constitute the majority with 84 percent, holding one to six animals. It is
also important to note that livestock has risen in landless laborers as it
provides with daily production and is considered to be an asset of social
security, and a security against crop failure. Despite this rise in livestock,
the ever increasing demand for dairy items remains unmet by the supply
side in the market. Therefore, investing in Livestock and dairy
management gives us multiple advantages that suits best to the situation,
especially after flood. An average farming family is facing a credit crunch
due to the loss of their last crop. They are currently unemployed as there
is no developmental activity in the region, and have limited saving that
probably has been used up during the early emergency crisis situation.
The aid given up to date falls short to cover their losses.

District Rajanpur has the third highest mortality rate of the livestock
among the flood affected region, as reported by the Livestock and dairy
department of Punjab Government. The reported figures also show that
Rajanpur has the fourth highest population of small and large animals.
Therefore, the selected district has also suffered most due to the flood
and also has the potential capacity to contribute the most to livestock
sector in Punjab. The selected household under the program are to meet
certain criteria that ensures that only those that are forced below poverty
line due to the recent flood get a chance to revive their socio-economic
standing and contribute effectively to the larger community and market.
Furthermore, gender issue shall be taken into consideration during
selection, as female headed households find it difficult to sustain their
livelihood, and often fall in poverty trap.

Unlike other employment generation project, timelessness is attached to

this specific strategy, as results/outcomes are dispersed over a longer
period of time (accounting the time it would take to breed and expand
cattle herd size). These livestock farmer can then be provided with better
marketing strategies and can be linked with milk conglomerates through
ensuring hygiene and ISO certified methods of dairy
collection/distribution. This would ensure a guaranteed source of income,
sustained over a longer period of time, with an ever increasing demand
with growing population and international demand.

Project Description

The ultimate outcome of the project is to contribute to the restoration and

recovery of livelihood security to flood affected population in Punjab.
Income-generating activities are of immediate need to replace lost jobs
and agricultural capacity and to provide credit to ease formal and informal
livelihoods. In the given context, as mentioned above livestock and dairy
management provides with an opportunity and a strategy of additional
income support to these affected families. In the first phase of the project
a locality is selected, and a survey is conducted for the assessment of
livelihood recovery and alternative strategies. A set of interview
questionnaires and other methods of field research are employed so to
identify core issues and how to solve these issues, on the basis of self-
reliance and community solidarity. The first phase ends with the analysis
of the data collected and then selected households on the set criteria that
be mentioned in the latter part of the paper. In the initial phase as due to
shortage of finance, only five households are selected on experimental
basis.

These five selected households shall be presented with a mix of dairy

animals that will include a buffalo, sheep/goat and egg giving hens. The
mix is prepared keeping in mind a number of factors. Firstly, all these
animals produce daily items of economic worth. Secondly, these animals
are easy to take care of and can easily be accommodated within a house.
Thirdly, they are liquid assets that can easily be converted in cash
whenever required and they are also symbols of social security. The
buffalo would provide for milk, which is 40 rupees per liter, and a good
buffalo produces 10-15 liters daily. The goat/sheep are used as a source of
milk, meat and wool. They are usually for house consumption purposes,
but in this context we aim to sell them off at the coming Eid. When the
animals can be sold off at better prices and are profit generating assets.
The poultry is one of the neglected fields in the District Rajanpur and the
reason is extreme climatic conditions. But on household level they provide
with eggs, which too can be sold and be used for meat purposes. In long
run, we can modify the existing poultry methods, introducing new
technology to the field and help in developing controlled sheds for the
poultry. Majority of the people when asked upon had no idea of an
extension worker. People still follow the traditional farming system, and
had never been introduced to modern knowledge. Hence, this gives us the
opportunity to introduce modern technology to the traditional farmer.
The sample population selected in the initial phase is of landless laborers,
they provide casual labor in the village-town setting. I have already
highlighted problems and issues currently faced by affected households,
in the post disaster situation. In this context targeting these deprived
segments of the population, providing them with sustainable income
opportunity would help in reducing inequality on a micro-community level.
Furthermore, indirect effects such as improved living conditions, better
nutrient management, and more awareness on social issues and
increased community participation can be expected outcomes of this
project. Hence, having effect on the income determinant would have
indirect effects that would foster human capital development. Therefore,
this project is motivated at having a more significant and long lasting
impact on the selected community and selected members for the
program.

The second phase begins with ensuring high productivity and providing
with technical training to the livestock farmers. Each farmer would be
taught book keeping, so that he maintains proper record of daily produce
and revenue/ expense inquired. They shall be providing with help in
setting the farm and making proper modern arrangements for keeping the
livestock. This would demand proper monitoring and evaluation system
that would ensure project’s sustainability and prove its long term
perspective. For this purpose, the rural cooperative method of
organization is modeled. This method of community organization has been
explained earlier. For the initial phase, these five members shall make one
CO (community organization). This community organization shall convene
its meeting on monthly basis, where each household shall be sharing his
output and problems faced during the whole discourse. The CO shall be
chaired by Mr. Iqbal Rais, who shall be supervising the project and is
respectable member of the village organization. I personally shall be
making regular visits to ensure smooth running of the program. Our aim is
to develop a structure within the village community that is self reliant and
works on self help basis, this would demand focused M&E in the early
phase.

The third phase comes with the expansion of livestock over the period and
with additional investment that would introduce new members to the
project. As soon as we increase the CO-VOs membership, through
inducting new households, that would increase our resource and
aggregate savings in the community fund. Certain percentage of each
household’s produce shall be going to the community fund, where it would
be accumulated for funding future projects for the community. Creation of
this fund would help us in providing funds for future ventures, latter can
be used to provide small loans to community members. Furthermore,
additional strategies for livelihood recovery and poverty alleviation can be
put in action. For example, the agro-based industry provides with enough
potential for growth. Food industry in this regard is very lucrative and
provides with employment and income. Small road side restaurants can
be opened for these people to manage; hence retailing their livestock
produce would provide them with more profit margins and increased
income. Therefore, diversification is very important to ensure more
integrated approach to rural development.

Objectives

The project aims in providing immediate assistance to flood affected

population, to ensure rapid restoration of livelihoods and enable them to
meet food needs through their participation in community work. The
activities performed under this project would promote long-term self-
sufficiency to achieve food and income insecurity. The following
mentioned are goals and objectives of the project:

• To rehabilitate and restore agriculture based livelihoods and assets

thereby improving food security of affected population

• To support most vulnerable families (widow headed families, child

headed HH, elder/old age, disables and Orphans)

• To support the community participation and developing self-

reliance

• To create awareness among community members of social and

cultural issues through community participation

• To support introduction of new technology and modern methods

The objectives highlighted above are indirect goals and purposes that are
aimed through outside intervention in a local system. First and foremost is
the recovery of livelihood and developing a sustainable system of
delivery. By having an impact on income, preferably an increase would
provide with motivation to the affected household to better participate in
the community work. The project gives hope to these poverty stricken
households and provides them with an opportunity to send their children
to schools and acquire modern methods and upgrade their living
standards. Therefore, in an overarching framework, the proposed project
will in long run be an umbrella project for other projects of social value,
i.e. education, health and sanitation, etc.
Beneficiaries

As per demand of the project we shall select beneficiary household on

basis of set criteria. The majority of the selected households are ‘landless
laborers’ or small subsistence farmers with landholdings less then five
acres. Majority of them had no milking animal and were considered the
lowest among wealth in their community. No discrimination in selecting
HH and no partiality will be tolerated. The following is a criteria on which
household shall be selected.

• Vulnerable groups: female headed households, disabled persons,

and children

• Those whose houses were severely destroyed

• Not owner of major assets, i.e. animal, machinery, etc.

• Facing difficulties to cover education, transportation and health

care expenses

• Able and willing to fully participate in the activities proposed

• No source of livelihood

• Land below 5 acres

• With family more than 5 children

These are broadly set criteria that focus on the least of the poor deprived
segments of the society, and the selection process would occur along
these lines. The objective here is to help those that are worst hit by the
flood and have no additional support system to sustain their livelihood.

Expected Outcomes

The project would help in fostering a better social environment for the
generation to follow, and would develop a self reliant structure within the
community that can withstand socio-economic shocks.

• Increased access to food through provision of meat/milk/egg

resources

• Strengthened beneficiaries on livelihood through community

involvement
 • Rehabilitated community assets through income generating
activities

• Increased community’s awareness on flood risks and disaster

management

• Increased community participation

• Better health and sanitation facilities

• Increased awareness of modern farming methods

• Better living standard

The project outcomes shall be supported with scientific empirical data

collected from the field and their analysis. And a general rise in the living
standards of the people shall provide basis to support my thesis. These
outcomes would develop over period and short term outcome would involve
increased income and saving on the part of the household. To measure the
outcome and result and effective feedback system is devised, that shall take
tools of primary research into consideration. Furthermore, a monthly report is
required from the centre that shall be showing the monthly progress and
issues they face in handling-marketing their final produce.

Proposed Activities

Following are some proposed activities that can assist the project in
achieving its expected outcomes.

• Kitchen Gardening (only for Women)

• Livestock

• Poultry

• Animal Husbandry

• Skill development (book keeping, technical knowledge, stitching)

• Audio-Visual presentation on issues of social awareness

• Activities of community participation

All these activities knit into the web of integrated social development, they
supplement daily life, providing with better use of time and gaining some
socio-economic benefit from it. These activities then become a support to the
existing farming system and to rural economy.

Methodology

To make the project effective and self sustainable, implementation strategy

plays a vital role. Proper supervision and procedural taps ensure
transparency and zero leakages. The community level organization shall act
as a body to ensure system wide agency, and village co-operative system will
be functional. The cooperative system brings accountability with it and as
mentioned above the cooperative shall be chaired by Mr. Iqbal Rais, who is
respectable and responsible figure of the village. Secondly, a monthly report
shall be required from the cooperative that should mention the monthly
productivity, the inquired expenditure and total profit being distributed
between the household and community on the agreed percentage. I have
already earlier explained how the village cooperative system would work and
ensure transparency and accountability. Each household will be responsible
for his produce and efficiency. He shall also be responsible for the marketing
of his produce. The supervisor would just ensure that agreed standards of
productivity and hygiene are maintained.

Further, I shall personally make frequent visits and would establish

communicative means for reporting and evaluation. A proper mechanism
shall be devised that would ensure effective feedback through employing the
tools of primary research, that be with the aid of questionnaires and personal
meetings with the community members. The monthly meeting would also
highlight problems of monitoring and evaluation that can be dealt with
mutual cooperation and with the consent of the community members. In the
long run as the project’s scope and resource expands, will bring a change in
the methodology and M&E system. But for the moment the devised method is
most suitable and cost effective.

Implementation Strategy

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4

(15 March-june (June-June (June 2012-VO

2011) 2012) takeover)

HH identification Introducing Expansionary Diversification to

and Selection; modern farming plans for COs and other related
providing them practices and HHs covered industries
with animals ensuring higher
productivity and
better breeding
practices

Monitoring and Evaluation

A project M&E plan will be prepared and include performance indicators that
may vary after the base line survey. These would include the measure of
additional income, creation of any additional asset, nutrient in take, health
and sanitation facilities, and education. These performance indicators would
help us determine the impact and outcome of the project. I have briefly
highlighted the methodology I shall be conducting in the methodology. Here I
would elaborate on number of documents and assessment reports that would
serve for this purpose. Initial survey would require basic demographic
information of the household and his views on issues of social importance. I
have already conducted the first phase of survey and selection. The second
phase would involve daily reports from the selected livestock farmers. These
reports would be based on milk production, animals eating habits and
generally more related to on farm facilities and management. Before the
project starts, a contract would be signed among the beneficiaries and the
third party donor. The contract would demand certain percentage of profit,
which would cover the subsidy provided, included the interest profit on the
capital invested. The financial and legal detail of the agreement shall be
communicated all the stakeholders. Daily attendance register shall be
maintained that would provide with other basic animal related information.
These reports shall be supplemented with monitoring reports that shall be
conducted by the field officer, in this case me. Where I personally shall be
making surprise visits to the locality and check for performance indicators.
The community level organization (CO) would also be sending monthly
monitoring reports with minutes of the monthly meeting held within the COs.
Smooth flow of this information shall be ensured over the E-mail system that
would connect the Village with the donor. On the basis of these reports being
prepared over time, a yearly working paper can be written to highlight the
performance and issues dealt with during the project’s discourse.

Other schemes and projects

 Currently a number of organizations are having stake in episode of Flood
Disaster 2010. This includes international agencies, i.e. United Nation’s
Subsidiary organization, European Union organization. These international
organizations have also sub-contracted humanitarian work to other NGOs,
providing funding on different projects of poverty alleviation and
development through community participation. The following are some
projects that are operational at the moment.

• Cash For Work

• Benazir Income Support – ‘watan card’

• KASH – cash transfer to the affected HH

• HIV/AIDS Awareness Raising and Service delivery Project

• Primary Health Care Facilities at Distrcit Loralai, Barkhan, Musakhel

and Qillah Saifullah

• Provision of Clean Drinking Water to Flood Effected population of

Districts Kohlu & Barkhan through Tankering

• Establishment of Child Friendly spaces in District Jahal Magsi and

Barkan

• Food Assistance to Flood Affected people of District Muzafargarh in

Punjab

These projects are implemented in cooperative partnership with NGOs.

The transition from early recovery to rehabilitation in longer perspective
should be viewed when deciding on nature of the project. Currently
proposed project caters to all such consideration and aims in developing a
sustainable environment. Our project success would be to improve each of
the poverty stricken household along the approved socio-economic
indicators, that include education, health and sanitation, income and
livelihood, nutrient, etc. A final report shall be published that would
critically overview the project, comparing each phase and the change it
brought in existent living standard.

Budget Notes

Animal Distribution
 Buffalo Poultry Goats/Sheeps

HH1 1 25 3

HH2 1 25 3

HH3 1 25 3

HH4 1 25 3

HH5 1 25 5

Additional Income

Animal Output (daily) Price (rps) Revenue

Buffalo 5 litre 40 rps 200 rps
Goat/Sheep Home Home Home
consumption consumption consumption
Hens 0.75 egg per day 3 2.25*25= 56
Total expected daily Revenue: 256 rps
Fund required per HH
Quantity Price Total

Buffalo 1 60,000 60000

Goat/Sheep 3 3000 9000
Hens 25 200 5000
Total cost of the bucket per HH: 74,000

ANNEX