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Abstract:
Se poate argumenta – cu oarecare temei – faptul că finanεiγtii
conγtientizaseră de mai mult timp că decizia de a investi trebuie să ia în calcul,
concomitent, rentabilitatea γi riscul activelor, însă acest lucru se realiza mai mult
la nivel empiric. Marea contribuεie a profesorului H. Markowitz a reprezentat-o
faptul că el a fost primul care a propus un model concret de optimizare a selecεiei
activelor pentru portofoliile de investiεii în condiεii de incertitudine. Mai precis,
Markowitz a arătat cum pot fi constituite portofoliile eficiente (acele portofolii
care maximizează rentabilitatea sperată pentru un anumit nivel dat al riscului),
compuse numai din active riscante. Simplitatea γi eleganεa rezultatului său,
precum γi gradul ridicat de aplicabilitate practică, au făcut ca modelul să devină
extrem de popular, un veritabil punct de referinεă în finanεele moderne. De altfel,
H. Markowitz a fost laureatul Premiului Nobel pentru economie în anul 1990,
alături de M. Miller γi W. Sharpe.
Cuvinte cheie: Portofoliul eficient, rentabilitate, risc, volatilitate, optim,
varianta
Clasificare JEL: G11
1
Pentru ca modelele prezentate să producă rezultate fiabile, se recomandă utilizarea unui număr
maxim de 14 – 15 active.
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Internal Auditing & Risk Management _________________ Anul VI, Nr.2(22), Iunie 2011
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Internal Auditing & Risk Management _________________ Anul VI, Nr.2(22), Iunie 2011
ȍ BMW CMB DAI MET SIE CEZ GTC LTS PKO TVN BRD OLT RRC SIF5 TBM
0.0006 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.0000 (0.00
BMW
08 69 521 228 157 0005) 0027) 044 037 070 051 0025) 0056) 12 0076)
0.0003 0.0011 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 (0.00
CMB
69 77 436 266 152 0029) 0077) 0086) 0038) 004 020 082 056 23 0029)
0.0005 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.0000 (0.00
DAI
21 36 685 262 181 0008) 0048) 038 039 065 089 068 0032) 39 0009)
0.0002 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.0000 (0.00
MET
28 66 262 429 120 0001) 0016) 007 023 026 022 009 0020) 29 0021)
0.0001 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 (0.00 (0.000 0.000
SIE
57 52 181 120 433 004 0012) 008 024 034 0032) 008 0016) 014) 004
(0.000 (0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.0000 0.000
CEZ
005) 029) 0008) 0001) 004 325 131 103 077 115 038 0001) 021 65 016
(0.000 (0.000 (0.00 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000
GTC
027) 077) 0048) 0016) 0012) 131 630 308 274 359 0023) 059 034 59 050
0.0000 (0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 (0.00
LTS
44 086) 038 007 008 103 308 714 344 362 057 116 016 38 0032)
0.0000 (0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.0000 (0.00
PKO
37 038) 039 023 024 077 274 344 611 341 047 069 0029) 92 0006)
0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0000 (0.00
TVN
70 04 065 026 034 115 359 362 341 762 0015) 083 055 76 0015)
0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.0002 0.000
BRD
51 20 089 022 0032) 038 0023) 057 047 0015) 814 099 0038) 75 098
(0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.0000 (0.00
OLT
025) 82 068 009 008 0001) 059 116 069 083 099 741 080 84 0040)
(0.000 0.0000 (0.00 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 (0.000 (0.00
RRC
056) 56 0032) 0020) 0016) 021 034 016 0029) 055 0038) 080 987 050) 0019)
0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 0.0011 0.000
SIF5
12 23 039 029 0014) 065 059 138 092 076 275 084 0050) 68 047
(0.000 (0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 (0.00 0.000 (0.00 (0.00 0.0000 0.001
TBM
076) 029) 0009) 0021) 004 016 050 0032) 0006) 0015) 098 0040) 0019) 47 529
BM 0.447 0.305 (0.01 (0.04 0.067 0.061 0.103 0.072 (0.02 (0.072 0.014 (0.07
1.0000 0.4356 0.8073
W 2 1 15) 31) 4 3 4 9 43) 7) 3 86)
0.374 0.213 (0.04 (0.08 (0.09 (0.04 0.004 0.020 0.057 0.019 (0.02
CMB 0.4356 1.0000 0.4857 0.0521
5 7 68) 93) 41) 52) 7 2 5 7 14)
0.483 0.332 (0.01 (0.07 0.053 0.059 0.090 0.119 0.062 (0.038 0.043 (0.00
DAI 0.8073 0.4857 1.0000
9 1 67) 28) 7 7 4 2 6 6) 5 92)
1.000 0.277 (0.00 (0.03 0.012 0.045 0.045 0.038 0.010 (0.030 0.040 (0.02
MET 0.4472 0.3745 0.4839
0 9 18) 11) 3 2 2 1 4 6) 9 53)
0.277 1.000 0.010 (0.02 0.013 0.046 0.059 (0.05 0.009 (0.024 (0.02 0.005
SIE 0.3051 0.2137 0.3321
9 0 1 31) 6 1 3 40) 0 5) 01) 0
(0.011 (0.0468 (0.016 (0.00 0.010 1.000 0.289 0.213 0.172 0.232 0.073 (0.00 0.106 0.022
CEZ 0.0363
5) ) 7) 18) 1 0 9 1 7 0 2 16) 3 6
(0.043 (0.0893 (0.072 (0.03 (0.02 0.289 1.000 0.458 0.441 0.517 (0.03 0.056 0.068 0.051
GTC 0.0426
1) ) 8) 11) 31) 9 0 7 3 9 16) 6 7 1
(0.0941 0.012 0.013 0.213 0.458 1.000 0.520 0.491 0.075 0.103 0.151 (0.03
LTS 0.0674 0.0537 0.0193
) 3 6 1 7 0 2 0 4 9 0 03)
(0.0452 0.045 0.046 0.172 0.441 0.520 1.000 0.499 0.067 0.067 (0.037 0.108 (0.00
PKO 0.0613 0.0597
) 2 1 7 3 2 0 4 0 0 1) 3 65)
0.045 0.059 0.232 0.517 0.491 0.499 1.000 (0.01 0.071 0.080 (0.01
TVN 0.1034 0.0047 0.0904 0.0630
2 3 0 9 0 4 0 87) 7 8 42)
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Internal Auditing & Risk Management _________________ Anul VI, Nr.2(22), Iunie 2011
0.038 (0.05 0.073 (0.03 0.075 0.067 (0.01 1.000 0.083 (0.042 0.282 0.087
BRD 0.0729 0.0202 0.1192
1 40) 2 16) 4 0 87) 0 2 0) 4 9
(0.024 0.010 0.009 (0.00 0.056 0.103 0.067 0.071 0.083 1.000 0.058 (0.02
OLT 0.0575 0.0626 0.0607
3) 4 0 16) 6 9 0 7 2 0 8 45)
(0.072 (0.038 (0.03 (0.02 0.036 0.042 0.019 (0.03 0.063 (0.04 0.060 (0.04 (0.01
RRC 0.0521 1.0000
7) 6) 06) 45) 3 6 3 71) 0 20) 7 66) 57)
0.040 (0.02 0.106 0.068 0.151 0.108 0.080 0.282 0.058 (0.046 1.000 0.035
SIF5 0.0143 0.0197 0.0435
9 01) 3 7 0 3 8 4 8 6) 0 2
(0.078 (0.0214 (0.009 (0.02 0.005 0.022 0.051 (0.03 (0.00 (0.01 0.087 (0.02 (0.015 0.035 1.000
TBM
6) ) 2) 53) 0 6 1 03) 65) 42) 9 45) 7) 2 0
Acڏiune xR xU
BMW 11.45% 32.93%
CMB 2.02% 0.81%
DAI -7.02% -18.90%
MET 13.25% 14.15%
SIE 15.55% 17.43%
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Internal Auditing & Risk Management _________________ Anul VI, Nr.2(22), Iunie 2011
VP V 2P
1
D
2
AR * 2BR * C . Rezultatele simulării efectuate sunt
E(RP) ıP
0.0000% 1.4980%
0.0100% 1.4343%
0.0200% 1.3726%
0.0300% 1.3133%
0.0400% 1.2567%
0.0500% 1.2032%
0.0600% 1.1533%
0.0700% 1.1074%
0.0800% 1.0660%
0.0900% 1.0297%
0.1000% 0.9990%
0.1100% 0.9745%
0.1200% 0.9566%
0.1300% 0.9458%
0.1400% 0.9422%
0.1500% 0.9459%
0.1600% 0.9569%
0.1700% 0.9749%
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Internal Auditing & Risk Management _________________ Anul VI, Nr.2(22), Iunie 2011
0.1800% 0.9996%
0.1900% 1.0304%
0.2000% 1.0668%
0.2100% 1.1083%
0.2200% 1.1543%
0.2300% 1.2044%
0.2400% 1.2579%
0.2500% 1.3145%
0.2600% 1.3739%
0.2700% 1.4356%
0.2800% 1.4994%
0.2900% 1.5651%
0.3000% 1.6323%
0.3100% 1.7010%
0.3200% 1.7709%
0.3300% 1.8419%
Tabelul 5. Valori posibile ale cuplului rentabilitate sperată – risc
asumat în condiεiile în care piaεa autorizează vânzările pe descoperit
Sursa: calcule proprii.
Figura 1. Frontiera eficientă Markowitz atunci când pe piaεă sunt permise vânzările pe
descoperit
Sursa: calcule proprii.
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Internal Auditing & Risk Management _________________ Anul VI, Nr.2(22), Iunie 2011
BIBLIOGRAFIE
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Selecting an Efficient Investment Portfolio, Lafayette College, Mathematics
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McGraw-Hill Companies, 2003;
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nyu.edu/~adamodar/
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Journal of Finance, 67 (2), 1992, pp. 427–465;
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Selecting an Efficient Investment Portfolio”, Lafayette College, Mathematics
REU Program, 2002;
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Work”, Journal of Finance, Nr. 25, 1970