Shainin: A concept for problem

solving

Lecture at the Shainin conference

Amelior
11 December 2009

Willy Vandenbrande
 qsconsult
www.qsconsult.be 1
 Dorian Shainin (1914 – 2000)
• Aeronautical engineer (MIT – 1936)

• Design Engineer for United Aircraft Corporations

• Mentored by his friend Joseph M. Juran

• Reliability consultant for Grumman Aerospace (Lunar

Excursion Module)

• Reliability consultant for Pratt&Whitney (RL-10 rocket engine)

• Developed over 20 statistical engineering techniques for

problem solving and reliability

• Started Shainin Consultants in 1984, his son Peter is current

CEO.

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 Dorian Shainin and ASQ
• 15th ASQ Honorary Member (1996)

• First person to win all four major ASQ

medals

• In 2004 ASQ created the Dorian Shainin

Medal
– For outstanding use of unique or creative
applications of statistical techniques in the
solving of problems related to the quality of a
product or service.
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 Dorian Shainin
• Not very well known outside USA
(compared to Deming, Juran)

• 1991: Publication of first edition of

“World Class Quality” by Keki Bothe

• 2000: Second edition (Keki and Adi Bothe)

• Books brought attention to Shainin

methods, but are very biased.

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 Problem Solving
• Focus is on variation reduction
LSL USL

After

Before

LSL = Lower Specification Limit

USL = Upper Specification Limit

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 Problem Solving
• But also …

LSL

After

Before

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 Basic Shainin assumption
• The pareto principle of vital few and trivial many.

• Only a few input variables are responsible for a

large part of the output behavior.

– Red XTM
– Pink XTM
– Pale Pink XTM

• Problem solving becomes the hunt for the Red XTM

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 Shainin tools
• Recipe like methods / statistics in the background

• Comparing extremes allows easier detection of causes

– BOB Best of Best

– WOW Worst of Worse

• Non parametrics with ranking tests in stead of calculations

with hypothesis tests

• Graphical Methods

• Working with small sample sizes

• The truth is in the parts, not in the drawing: let the parts talk!

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 Preliminary activities
• Define the critical output variable(s) to be
improved (called problem Green Y®)

• Determine the quality of the Measurement

System used to evaluate the Green Y®
– A bad measurement system can in itself be
responsible for excessive variation
– Improvements can only be seen if they can be
measured

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 20 – 1000 variables

Components Multi-Vari Paired Product / Process

Clue generating Search chart Comparisons Search

5 – 20 variables Variables Full 4 or less variables

Search Factorials

Formal
Doe tools
Validation B vs C

No interactions Interactions

Optimization Scatter Plots RSM methods

Process
Assurance Positrol
Certification
Control
Ongoing Precontrol
control

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Overview of Shainin tools Source: World Class Quality – 2nd edition
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 General comments
• Gradually narrowing down the search

• Clear logic
– Analyzing
– Improving
– Controlling

• Not all tools are “Shainin” tools

• “What’s in a name?”
– Positrol versus Control Plan
– Process Certification versus Process Audit

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 Tool details
• Overview of methods

• More info on B vs CTM and Scatter Plots in

workshops

• Some more detail on

– Multi-Vari chart
– Paired ComparisonTM and Product/Process
Search
– Pre Control

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 Clue Generating / Multi-Vari Chart
Understand the pattern of variation
Objective Define areas where not to look for problems
Allow a more specific brainstorm

Problem type: excess variation

Application Wide applicability

Divide total variation in categories

Principles Search for causes of variation in the biggest
category first
Samples taken in production on current process
Sample Size Could be a big measurement investment

Very useful tool and best applied before

Comments brainstorming causes on excess variation

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 Multi-Vari Chart

• Breakdown of variation in 3 families:

– Positional (within piece, between cavities, …)

– Cyclical (consecutive units, batch-to-batch, lot-to-
lot)
– Temporal (hour-to-hour, shift-to-shift, …)

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 Multi-vari Chart

• If one family of variation

contains a large part of
total variation, we can
concentrate on
investigating variables
related to this family of
variation.

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 Clue Generating / Component SearchTM
Find the component(s) of an assembly that is (are)
Objective responsible for bad behavior

Problem type: assembly does not perform to spec

Application Limitation: Disassembly / Reassembly must be
possible without product change
Select BOB and WOW unit
Principles Exchange components and observe behavior.
Components that change behavior are Red X comp
2 = 1 BOB and 1 WOW
Sample Size

Disassembly / reassembly requirement limits

Comments application.

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 Clue Generating / Paired ComparisonTM
Find directions for further investigation
Objective

Problem type: occasional problems in production

Application flow

Select pairs of BOB and WOW units

Principles Look for differences
Consistent differences to be investigated further
5 to 6 pairs of 1 BOB and 1 WOW
Sample Size

Practical application of “let the parts talk”

Comments

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 Paired ComparisonsTM: method
• Step 1: take 1 good and 1 bad unit
– As close as possible in time
– Aim for BOB and WOW units

• Step 2: note the differences between these units

(visual, dimensional, mechanical, chemical, …). Let
the parts talk!

• Step 3: take a second pair of good and bad units.

Repeat step 2

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 Paired ComparisonsTM: method
• Step 4: repeat this process with third, fourth, fith, …
pair until a pattern of differences becomes apparent.

• Step 5: don’t take inconsistent differences into

account. Generally after the fith or sixth pair the
consistent differences that cause the variation
become clear.

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 Clue Generating / Product/Process Search
Preselection of variables out of a large group of
Objective potential variables

Problem type: Various types of problems

Application

Select sets of BOB and WOW units – batches - ..

Principles Add product data / process parameters and rank
Apply Tukey test to determine important parameters
8 BOB and 8 WOW units / batches
Sample Size

Tukey test is alternative for t-test

Comments Widely applicable method
Problem: available data (process parameters)
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 Product/Process Search: example

• Transmission assemblies rejected for noise.

• Components search shows idler shaft as
responsible component
• One of the parameters of idler shaft is “out of
round”
• 8 good / 8 bad units selected and measured
for “out of round”

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 Product/Process search: example
Out of round good units Out of round bad units
(mm) (mm)
0.015 0.019

0.018 0.018

0.014 0.016

0.022 0.023

0.017 0.024

0.019 0.023

0.011 0.021

0.007 0.017

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 Tukey test procedure
• Rank individual units by parameter and
indicate Good / Bad.
• Count number of “all good” or “all bad” from
one side and vice versa from other side.
• Make sum of both counts.
• Determine confidence level to evaluate
significance.

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 Tukey test confidence levels
Total end count Confidence

6 90%

7 95%

10 99%

13 99.9%

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 Tukey test: example
Good Bad

0.007
Top end count (all good)
0.011
0.014
0.015 4
0.016
0.017 0.017
0.018 0.018
0.019 0.019 Overlap region
0.021
0.022

0.023 Bottom end count (all bad)

0.023
0.024
3

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 Tukey test: example
• Total end count = 4 + 3 = 7

• 95 % confidence that out-of-round idler

shaft is important in explaining the
difference in noise levels.

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 Formal Doe tools / Variables Search
Determine Red XTM, Pink XTM including
Objective quantification of their effect
Problem type: Various types of problems
Application After clue generating more then 4 potential variables
left
List variables in order of criticality (process knowledge)
and indicate good / bad level.
Principles Swap factor settings and observe behavior.
Factors that change behavior (and interactions) are red
XTM, Pink XTM
Number of tests is determined by number of
Sample Size variables and quality of ordering.

Alternative to fractional factorials on two levels

Comments Method comparable to components search

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 Formal Doe tools / Full Factorials
Determine Red XTM, Pink XTM including
Objective quantification of their effect
Problem type: Various types of problems
Application After clue generating 4 or less variables left

Classical DOE with Full Factorials at two levels

Principles Main Effects and interactions are calculated

Number of tests is determined by number of

Sample Size variables k (2k test combinations)

Well established method

Comments

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 Formal Doe tools / B(etter) vs C(urrent)TM
Validation of Red XTM, Pink XTM
Objective
Problem type: Various types of problems
Application

Create new process using optimum settings

Principles and compare optimum with current.

3 B and 3 C tests (each test can involve several

Sample Size units – test of variation reduction)
All 3B’s must be better than all 3C’s
Quick validation that works well with big
Comments improvements

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 Optimization / Scatter Plots
Fine tune best level and realistic tolerance for Red
Objective XTM, Pink XTM if no interactions are present
Problem type: Variation Reduction and optimizing
Application signal

Do tests around optimum and use graphical

Principles regression to set tolerance

30 tests for each critical variable

Sample Size

Graphical method that could easily be transformed

Comments to a statistical method

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 Optimization / Response Surface Methods
Fine tune best level and realistic tolerance for Red
Objective XTM, Pink XTM if interactions are present
Problem type: Variation Reduction and optimizing
Application signal

Evolutionary Operation (EVOP) to scan

Principles response surface in direction of steepest
ascent
Depends on variables and surface.
Sample Size

Method developed by George Box

Comments

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 EVOP example

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 Control / Positrol
Assuring that optimum settings are kept
Objective
Problem type: all types
Application

Table of What, How, Who, Where and When

Principles control has to be exercised.

Checking frequency in the When column

Sample Size

Can be compared with a Control Plan

Comments

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 Control / Process Certification
Eliminating peripheral causes of poor quality
Objective
Problem type: all types
Application

Make overview of things that could influence the

Principles process and install inspections, audits, …

Checking frequency to be determined

Sample Size

Mix of 5S, Poka-Yoke, instructions, ISO 9000,

Comments audits,…

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 Control / Pre Control
Continuous checking of the quality of the process
Objective output
Problem type: control variation and setting of the
Application process

Divide total tolerance in colored zones and use

Principles prescribed sampling and rules to control the
process.

Checking frequency to be determined

Sample Size

Alternative to classical SPC

Comments Traffic lights system
Very practical method

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 Pre-Control: chart construction

1/4 TOL 1/4 TOL

½ TOL LSL
USL
TARGET

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 Pre-control: use of chart
1. Start process: five consecutive units in
green needed as validation of set-up.
2. If not possible: improve process.
3. In production: 2 consecutive units
4. Frequency: time interval between two
stoppages (see action rules) / 6.

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 Pre-control: action rules
Result of samples Action

2 units in green zone Continue

1 unit in green and 1 unit in yellow Continue

zone
2 units in same yellow zone Correct

2 units in different yellow zone Stop and act

1 unit in red zone Stop and act

After an intervention: 5 consecutive units in green zone

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 Pre-control: example

Time
Start Start
Correct 39
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 QS Consult
Willy Vandenbrande, Master TQM
ASQ Fellow - Six Sigma Black Belt

Montpellier 34
B - 8310 Brugge
België - Belgium
Tel + 32 (0)479 36 03 75

E-mail willy@qsconsult.be
Website www.qsconsult.be
Willy Vandenbrande
 qsconsult
www.qsconsult.be 40