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GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY WRAP & OUTLOOK_ TD52-53_March 15-16, 2011
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Volume (m) Value (phpm) Advancers Decliners Unchanged
Here at home, the major concern lies in how the events in North Africa, Libya (& the Middle East in general) and now Japan,
will add to the burden of sustaining growth. On top of the list is the possible displacement of Filipino expatriates and workers
whose remittances have helped keep the economy afloat, sending our Gross International Reserves to record highs. And
while they are not often talked about lately, China's inflation and the progress in the European debt crisis remain major
concerns moving forward. For certain, once the tsunami concern recedes, focus will once more shift to these problems,
keeping investors on their toes.
The technical condition of the market had forewarned of today's slide. It has in fact done so since March 7 th when the
measure closed at 3,886.48. All else told, the market has already slipped -63.63 points or -1.61% off the recent peak at
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 1 of 2
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
DAILY WRAP & OUTLOOK_ TD52-53_March 15-16, 2011
PSE Index Pts Change % Change Volume (m) Value (phpm) Advancers Decliners Unchanged
3,959.94, a day before the tsunami hit northeast Japan. Even without this, and the still brewing crisis in the North African-
Middle East region, we were already on a cautious stance, based mostly on concerns over China's inflationary
environment and the continuing process of addressing the European debt problems. We become even more so with the
emergence of geopolitical risks, particularly as it impacts on, as it has already impacted, the price of oil. This will
inevitably set off a chain reaction to higher prices at the pump pushing inflation higher (as we have seen January at 3.5%
and February at 4.3%) and eventually, adding pressure for the BSP to look closely at policy rates. Prospects of an upward
adjustment looms large – although the requirements to sustain growth may limit such move to only 25 basis points. On the
other hand, raising rates prematurely, when demand has yet to gain momentum, leaving inflationary pressures on the
supply side, may prove counter-productive. This keeps the market on the edge.
The uncertainties moving forward are reflected on the questions bugging investors' collective minds: “How soon will Japan
get back on its feet and achieve a semblance of “normalcy?””; “Will the European Union and the European Central Bank's
facility for debt-riddled members be sufficient to sustain the viability of the region?”; “When will the tensions in the Middle
East ease?”; “Will Gaddafi remain steadfast on holding on at whatever cost?”; “Will world oil prices fall back to below the
US$100-per barrel levels?”; “Can China rein in inflation, without sacrificing growth?”; among others.
The bottom-line for equity investors is whether and how the answers to these questions will reflect on listed firms' Q1 2011
profit and liquidity numbers. True, what has been reported lately, and what will be reported in the coming days as the
earnings season unwinds, puts a positive spin to trades, particularly as portfolio investors bank on dividend declarations –
leaving short-term money with little room to maneuver. Yet, these numbers coming out in disclosures and briefings were
achieved in and under 2010 conditions. Admittedly, the bases of such achievements have changed.
This may well be a “hiccup” in the over-all picture, which though generally still positive, is now tinged with a host of
concerns. Still, this is consistent with your beginning-of-year stance of guarded optimism.
DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO
OTHERS. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS
FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE
SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS
REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE
INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
DAILY Report Page 2 of 2