Documente Academic
Documente Profesional
Documente Cultură
graficul ponderilor
15
14
13
MSE
12
11
10
8
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
alpha
MSE
120.0000
7 8
6 9
115.0000 1
5 10
110.0000
4 11; 108.0000 MSE
Axis Title
105.0000 2 3
100.0000
95.0000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Axis Title
110.0000
4 11; 108.0000 MSE
Axis Title
105.0000 2 3
100.0000
95.0000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Axis Title
Modulul Exponential smoothing din Tools/Data Analysis
Valoarea
coeficientului alpha
introdusă de decident
nr perioada forecast standard error
2 250.00
Eroare procentuală
absolută 3 246.50
|et|/xt 4 239.85
0.0000 5 236.46 6.80
0.0200 6 245.24 9.51
0.0493 7 255.57 11.53
0.0508 8 248.17 12.74
0.0129 9 238.25 13.30
0.0558 10 240.18 10.33
0.0128 11 246.35 9.77
0.0555 12 239.11 8.01
0.0196
0.0157
0.0394
0.0314
e erori de
e
0.0367
0.160000
0.120000 0.120400
X13 0.140000
X12 0.120400
0.100000 0.103544
X11 0.103544
X10 0.089048 0.089048
X9 0.076581 0.080000 0.07
X8 0.065860
X7 0.056639 0.060000
X6 0.048710
X5 0.041891 0.040000
X4 0.036026
X3 0.030982
0.020000
X2 0.026645
X1 0.022914
0.000000
X13 X12 X11 X10 X9
0.040000
0.020000
0.000000
X13 X12 X11 X10 X9
alpha
9
10
0.8 1 1.2
11; 108.0000 MSE
0.8 1 1.2
00
0.103544
0.089048
0.076581
0.065860
0.056639
0.048710
0.041891
0.036026
0.030982
0.0266450.022914
11 X10 X9 X8 X7 X6 X5 X4 X3 X2 X1
0.048710
0.041891
0.036026
0.030982
0.0266450.022914
11 X10 X9 X8 X7 X6 X5 X4 X3 X2 X1
Valori previzionate Valori previzionate Valori previzionate
Luna Vânzări alpha 0.3 alpha 0.9 alpha 0.14 Media
1 250 250.00 250.00 250.00 244.42
2 245 250.00 250.00 250.00 244.42
3 237 248.50 245.50
260 249.30 244.42
4 235 245.05 237.85 247.58 244.42
5 249 242.04 235.29 245.82 244.42
6 260 244.12 247.63 246.26 244.42
7 245 248.89 255
258.76 248.19 244.42
8 234 247.72 246.38 247.74 244.42
9 241 243.60 235.24 245.82 244.42
10 249 242.82 240.42
250 245.14 244.42
11 236 244.68 248.14 245.68 244.42
Vanzari si previziuni
12 252 242.07 237.21 244.33 244.42
13 245.05 250.52 245.40 244.42
245
240
235
230
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Lunile
Lunile