Setul de valori inițiale privind vânzările

control valori alpha înregistrate pentru o perioadă de 12 luni

Valoarea
0.3 30
coeficientului al
introdusă de deci
Valoarea alpha 0.14

Luna Valori ajustate sau Eroare

calendaristică Vânzări previzionate Eroare absolută Eroare pătratică
t Xt Ft et=Xt-Ft |et| |et|2
1 250 250.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
2 245 250.0000 -5.0000 5.0000 25.0000
3 237 249.3000 -12.3000 12.3000 151.2900
4 235 247.5780 -12.5780 12.5780 158.2061
5 249 245.8171 3.1829 3.1829 10.1310
6 260 246.2627 13.7373 13.7373 188.7137
7 245 248.1859 -3.1859 3.1859 10.1500
8 234 247.7399 -13.7399 13.7399 188.7844
9 241 245.8163 -4.8163 4.8163 23.1968
10 249 245.1420 3.8580 3.8580 14.8840
11 236 245.6821 -9.6821 9.6821 93.7438
12 252 244.3266 7.6734 7.6734 58.8805
13 ? 245.4009
Diferitele tipuri de erori de
previziune
Medie (formule desfășurat -4.2691 9.1034 104.6108
Previziunea ce urmează MSE
a fi (functia SUMXMY2) 104.6108
determinată

graficul ponderilor

t Xt Ft Ponderea valorilor reale

1 250.00 250.00 X1 0.022914
2 245.00 250.00 X2 0.026645
3 237.00 249.30 X3 0.030982
4 235.00 247.58 X4 0.036026
5 249.00 245.82 X5 0.041891
6 260.00 246.26 X6 0.048710
7 245.00 248.19 X7 0.056639
8 234.00 247.74 X8 0.065860
9 241.00 245.82 X9 0.076581
10 249.00 245.14 X10 0.089048
11 236.00 245.68 X11 0.103544
12 252.00 244.33 X12 0.120400
13 ? 245.40 X13 0.140000
calculul valorii opt alpha 0.30

Alpha 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3

MSE 104.610750025

15

14

13
MSE

12

11

10

8
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

alpha

alpha 0.3 0.325 0.35 0.375 0.4

MSE 108.8816

Alpha 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

MSE 114.4286 105.2219 105.3855 108.8816 112.9746

MSE
120.0000
7 8
6 9
115.0000 1
5 10
110.0000
4 11; 108.0000 MSE
Axis Title
105.0000 2 3

100.0000

95.0000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Axis Title
 110.0000
4 11; 108.0000 MSE
Axis Title
105.0000 2 3

100.0000

95.0000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Axis Title
 Modulul Exponential smoothing din Tools/Data Analysis
Valoarea
coeficientului alpha
introdusă de decident
nr perioada forecast standard error
2 250.00
Eroare procentuală
absolută 3 246.50
|et|/xt 4 239.85
0.0000 5 236.46 6.80
0.0200 6 245.24 9.51
0.0493 7 255.57 11.53
0.0508 8 248.17 12.74
0.0129 9 238.25 13.30
0.0558 10 240.18 10.33
0.0128 11 246.35 9.77
0.0555 12 239.11 8.01
0.0196
0.0157
0.0394
0.0314

e erori de
e
0.0367

0.160000

Reprezentare grafica 0.140000 0.140000

0.120000 0.120400
X13 0.140000
X12 0.120400
0.100000 0.103544
X11 0.103544
X10 0.089048 0.089048
X9 0.076581 0.080000 0.07
X8 0.065860
X7 0.056639 0.060000
X6 0.048710
X5 0.041891 0.040000
X4 0.036026
X3 0.030982
0.020000
X2 0.026645
X1 0.022914
0.000000
X13 X12 X11 X10 X9
 0.040000

0.020000

0.000000
X13 X12 X11 X10 X9

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Alpha

MSE

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

alpha

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

116.2968 118.1154 118.0973 116.2258 112.7309 108.0000

9
10

11; 108.0000 MSE

0.8 1 1.2
 11; 108.0000 MSE

0.8 1 1.2
00

0.103544
0.089048
0.076581
0.065860
0.056639
0.048710
0.041891
0.036026
0.030982
0.0266450.022914

11 X10 X9 X8 X7 X6 X5 X4 X3 X2 X1
 0.048710
0.041891
0.036026
0.030982
0.0266450.022914

11 X10 X9 X8 X7 X6 X5 X4 X3 X2 X1
 Valori previzionate Valori previzionate Valori previzionate
Luna Vânzări alpha 0.3 alpha 0.9 alpha 0.14 Media
1 250 250.00 250.00 250.00 244.42
2 245 250.00 250.00 250.00 244.42
3 237 248.50 245.50
260 249.30 244.42
4 235 245.05 237.85 247.58 244.42
5 249 242.04 235.29 245.82 244.42
6 260 244.12 247.63 246.26 244.42
7 245 248.89 255
258.76 248.19 244.42
8 234 247.72 246.38 247.74 244.42
9 241 243.60 235.24 245.82 244.42
10 249 242.82 240.42
250 245.14 244.42
11 236 244.68 248.14 245.68 244.42

Vanzari si previziuni
12 252 242.07 237.21 244.33 244.42
13 245.05 250.52 245.40 244.42
245

240

235

230
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Lunile

Vânzări Valori previzionate alpha 0.3

Valori previzionate alpha 0.14 Media
 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Lunile

Valori previzionate alpha 0.3 Valori previzionate alpha 0.9

Media