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Due Date: 17 AUGUST 2009
1 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................1
4 EVALUATIONS METHODS............................................................5
8. REFERENCES.........................................................................12
In fulfilment of the requirements for the major assignment, it is required that a paper is
written on the following topic:
The question is, is the Gautrain proposal the best way to provide dignified
public Transport or would you recommend a different proposal?
Provide at least two new public transport proposals for the Gautrain corridor.
We were required to discount all the costs taking the lifespan of the
investment into account. Using the CBA or MCA techniques you now should
be able to:
• Choose one of the evaluation techniques and argue why you are
proposing to use this one;
• Compare the current proposal with two (or more) new proposals;
• Select at least five criteria to asses the suggested
solution(alternatives);
• Indicate reasons for the choice of evaluation criteria;
• Use the chosen technique and calculate or justify by reference the
evaluation chosen solution;
• A conclusion and recommendation on the method and the alternatives
must be written
It then goes on to discuss the proposed evaluation methodology but first the CBA and
MCA calculations were done to determine which evaluation method was appropriate
for the project. Conclusion and Recommendations were then drawn from the findings.
1 )
2 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
“The Gautrain Rapid Rail link is a rapid rail network planned in Gauteng. The rail
connection comprises of two links, namely a link between Tshwane (Pretoria) and
Johannesburg and a link between OR Tambo International Airport and Sandton. (See
Figure 1). A part from the three anchor stations on these two links, seven other
stations will be linked by approximately 80 kilometres of rail along the high level of
safety, reliability, predictability and comfort. Travelling at maximum speeds of 160 to
180kilometers per hour it will reach Tshwane from Johannesburg in less than 40
minutes. This Public Transport service will include dedicated exclusive bus services
to passengers to and from stations. The current estimated cost for this system is 20
billion” (Notes, 2009)
2 )
Combating the loss of mobility and growing economic costs of increasing road
congestion is a major challenge for the City of Johannesburg. The major
drivers of congestion are considered to be:
• Car ownership in the CoJ.is growing and is projected to increase by
35% to 1, 2 million by 2010.
• Capacity bottlenecks generally occur at intersections and interchanges
(as opposed to mid link sections of freeways and arterials) due to
inadequate geometry or malfunctioning/mistimed traffic signals.
• Lack of public transport culture among car users
• Lack of attractive alternatives to driving – including walking, biking, and
public transport
Therefore besides the Gautrain projects other mode alternatives for the corridor were
also evaluated.
3 )
3 ALTERNATIVE MODE OF TRANSPORT FOR THE GAUTRAIN CORRIDOR
The aim of this section is to examine alternative public transport modes for the
Gautrain route. For this project the bus and Light rail alternatives were considered
3.1 BUS
For the purpose of this project a standard bus transport was considered. Del Mistro
(1995) describes this mode of transport as being common in developing countries,
due to level of technology’s compatible with local experience and facilities.
The current bus service run on a schedule on specified routes and fares are fixed for
the routes. The standard bus capacity is100 and the route capacity is 15
000p/hr/lane. The journey speed ranges from 10 to 12km in mix traffic and low
density areas 25km/hr.
The LRT is assumed to be operating in a totally dedicated right of way. The bus is
assumed to match the high speed train in quality.
Train has a Capacity for 700 to 900passengers. With segregated right of way this
vehicle could carry a capacity of 36 000 p/hr/direction at a journey speed of 25km/hr.
To compare the Gautrain with the bus and light rail alternatives a project evaluation
needed to be done to determine if the Gautrain is the appropriate public transport
mode for the corridor.
4 )
4 EVALUATIONS METHODS
The purpose of project evaluation is to calculate the net benefits of a project in such a
way as to form a basis for informing policy-makers as to whether the project should
be undertaken.
The two primarilry used evaluation methods for road and public transport project are
namely;
• cost benefit analysis and
• multicriteria analysis.
Table 1 gives comparison off the evaluation techniques describing the advantages
and disadvange.
• to help appraise, or assess, the case for a project or proposal, which itself is a
process known as project appraisal; and
5 )
Under both definitions the process involves, whether explicitly or implicitly, weighing
the total expected costs against the total expected benefits of one or more actions in
order to choose the best or most profitable option”
Cost and benefit can be determined through two qualitative methods, Net profit value
and benefit cost ratio. The benefit cost factor are used in conjunction with NPV,
through determining if individual projects has a BCR >1 to be acceptable (Littman T,
2002).
6 )
5 PROPOSED EVALUATION METHODOLOGY
Impacts such as the social and environmental impacts could not be easily quantified
in monetary terms and not enough information was available to determine values for
environmental (pollution), safety and congestion criteria’s. Therefore when attempt
was made to calculate above criteria information for CBA calculations was based on
Todd Littman’s information and assumptions. Below is the Cost Benefit Analysis
calculation and more detail information is provided in Appendix A.
This information was then used to conduct a Cost Benefit Analysis, and the results
are shown in Table 3.
7 )
1. COSTS Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3
Gautrain Bus Tram Train
Life Span 40 20 30
Discount Factor:
1
6.83 8.76 6.83
R
R 1,706,657 R 1,752,343 R 2,047,989
Ex Exploitation Cost 21 4 122
TOTAL COST R 1,731,657 R 1,765,676 R 2,077,989
ALTERNATIVES
2. BENEFITS Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Alternative 4
Gautrain Bus LTR Gautrain
a) Pollution
( A) Pollution for public Transport
= 1 Pollution (per km) x
Ad Additional PT-km/yr 10 153 12.54
(B) Reduction of car pollution
Po 2 Pollution (per km) x
153*8.78(bus)
Re Reduction of car-km/yr 762 1343 158
Tot al 3 Pollution = ( B - A ) 1190 145
752
P 4 POLLUTION COSTS =
Tota l Pollution ÷ 1,000,000g
1190/1000000*
xP Pollution Cost (R/t)ass 5000(assumed
5.95 0.273
3.8 )
c) Safety
(A) Safety increases due to
1.267
reduction of car-km/yr
20
car*0.264
= Reduction of car-km 8.78(10.2-
168car*0.2 200
5 44 1.4aver
64
safety risk/km occupancy car)
762car*0.2
64
8 )
(B) Safety decreases due to
added PT-km/yr
= additional PT-km/yr x extra
todd
safety risk/km veh*1,267 25 380 76
To tal Reduction =A - B
175 -375 -32
SAFETY BENEFITS
= Safety Costs x Total
42500*175
R reduction R7 437 500 -R 16,022,500 -R1 3600 00
TOTAL BENEFITS
= POLLUTION + 3.8 5.95 0.73
TR TAVEL TIME BENEFITS + 730 10 962 2192.4
SA FETY R7 437 500 -R15 937 500 -R 1 360 000
TOTAL BENEFITS
R11 238 230 -R 9 976 538 -R 627 808
Some of the criteria chosen for the alternatives cannot be monetized therefore MCA
was used to deal with these aspects. MCA is also a tool which could be used in the
decision making process for planning uncertainty and for ranking choice alternatives
that have to be judged on a base of a broader set of decisions or choice criteria
(P Nijkamp, E Blaas, 1994:172)
Weights were also determined for each criteria based on the objectives and priorities
of the projects. As cited by Manneveld notes 2005, weighting was discussed as being
a complex since not only must the experts know exactly what the value placed by
society on the different impacts of the project is, but they should also be able to
translate them into weights.
9 )
made to Public Transport
C2: pollution 0.15 Air pollution impacts are
assessed in terms of changes in
the emissions produced by the
traffic therefore receives a
medium-low ranking
C3: Travel Time 0.1 Travel time refers to the value of
time spent in travel Least
important in relation to the other
criteria
C4: Safety 0.2 Accidents arising from transport
impose costs on society and the
individual, therefore this criteria
receives a medium-high ranking
C5: Congestion 0.25 Traffic congestion consists of
incremental delay, driver stress,
vehicle costs, crash risk and
pollution, therefore it receives a
high ranking
The Evamix- Multi criteria analysis method was decided on to calculate the chosen
solution. For the Qualitative criteria the ranking were done according to three
performance indices:
The following tables show the evaluation of the alternatives using the Evamix method.
10 )
C2: Pollution xxx x xx 0.15
C3: Congestion xxx x xx 0.10
C4: Safety xxx x xx 0.20
The results of the Multi Criteria Analysis concurred that Gautrain is the best mode
option for the route between Johannesburg and Pretoria.
11 )
While this may be largely due to the long term cost planning savings and travel time,
it must also be reiterated that when doing a multi criteria analysis the impacts should
be described qualitatively, and quantified as much as possible. It is important to avoid
skewing analysis results by focusing too much on some impacts just because they
are most easily quantified.
“Cost Benefit Analysis is a tool that could be used to appraising policies and projects
but are narrow in scope of issues regarding vehicle conditions and silent on values of
developing Countries” (Kane 2006).
The lack of reliable cost data for the different Public transport modes were considered
to be a significant flaw. Therefore I agree with earlier investigations by Kane (2006)
that cost benefit analysis is in appropriate for assessing transport projects particularly
in the South African case and that a new approach to assess are needed.
8. REFERENCES
12 )
2. Lisa Kane, 2006: Instilling pro-poor values into transport assessment.
4. Victoria Transport Policy Institute, 1999: Traffic Calming, Benefit, Cost and
Equity Impacts, by Todd Littman. http://www.vtpi.org/tdm
9. Forum for Economic and Enviroment – South African, Training Manual Draft
1, 2002
13 )
APPENDIX A
COLLECTED INFORMATION
APPENDIX A: COLLECTED/INFORMATION
14 )
1. Discount Factor
Assume a discount rate of 8%, r = 0.08
∴ Bus = 153
Which means if assumed Bus passenger capacity = 24 000 then
For the 300 Bus required it will take 80 passengers and if we assume
passengers per car is 4. we can make the following conclusion:
∴ 80/4 = 20 less car are required.
15 )
There are currently no LTV assume to have additional 60
There are currently bus assume to have 300 in total
Assumed
16 )
17 )