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An overview of the vendors, developments and trends in the Dutch Forecasting / Demand
Planning market
Cap Gemini Ernst & Young Netherlands, B2B Supply Chain service line
Contents
1 Introduction 4
9 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young – Your partner in supply chain projects 28
9.1 Introduction 28
9.2 CGE&Y – The premier partner in supply chain package selections 28
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1 Introduction
This report contains an overview of the leading forecasting / demand Planning software vendors
in the Netherlands. It discusses the developments that have occurred in the last three years and
analyses the trends for the coming three years. It also analyses the use of forecasting / demand
planning tools in different industries and discusses the differentiators in the market.
Forecasting / demand planning tools are used to get a better visibility of the future sales pipeline.
They essentially can work in two different ways. Sales employees can either enter their personal
sales forecast (f.e. for their products, customers or projects) on different levels of aggregation
while the forecasting / demand planning tool aggregates these forecasts on a company-wide level.
Also however forecasting / demand planning tools can, without manual intervention, generate
sales forecast projections based on historic demand levels. These automatic forecasting projec-
tions can be done by using multiple forecasting algorithms, which differ in their suitability, speed,
complexity and forecast accuracy for each particular type of demand (regular demand, spare part
demand, promotion demand, irregular demand etcetera). The more advanced forecasting tools
generally differ in the number of (advanced) forecasting algorithms they support.
We have only included specialized forecasting / demand planning software vendors and not the
more general ERP software vendors which also have functionality for forecasting / demand
planning (which is generally very simple).
This report is part of a series of reports published in 2002 / 2003 around different categories of
standard supply chain software packages. Reports have been published or are planned around the
following software categories:
1. Warehouse Management Systems (WMS)
2. Product Lifecycle Management (PLM)
3. Advanced Planning Systems (APS)
4. Inventory Optimisation Tools
5. Transport Management Systems (TMS)
6. Supplier Relationship Management (SRM)
7. Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES)
8. Supply Chain Event Management (SCEM) / Visibility software
For this overview CGE&Y prepared a short questionnaire which was distributed to all forecasting
/ demand planning software vendors in the Dutch marketplace. The results from the overview
were consolidated and analyzed by professionals from CGE&Y. Also CGE&Y supply chain
professionals have provided their input, analysis and market views for this report.
Many thanks to the forecasting / demand planning software vendors who have participated in this
overview.
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2.1 Overview
The Benelux market for forecasting / demand planning software is not very large since only about
65 people in total are working in the Netherlands in companies which deliver forecasting /
demand planning software. The largest software vendors in terms of the number of employees in
the Netherlands are Infolog and Scanmar.
“Broader” software vendors are SAP (which also delivers ERP software), Ross Systems (which
also delivers ERP software), Manugistics (which also delivers APS software), OM Partners
(which also delivers APS software) and JDA (which also delivers Retail software; JDA bought
the E3 company in 2001). Ross Systems has formed a partnership in 2002 with Prescient Systems
(a US APS software vendor) in which Ross Systems delivers the Prescient XEi solution as their
iRenaissance SCM solution.
In the table below the forecasting / demand planning software vendors are ranked according to
the number of employees in their Dutch organization.
Number of employees
Vendor Name Package Name NL EUR WW
Infolog Slim4 15 25 35
Scanmar PlanCaster 13 13 13
ATIM (Business Forecast Systems) Forecast Pro (Unlimited, XE) 8 8 8
Quadriceps Products VPS2000 7 7 7
Finmatica Mercia MerciaLincs 5 1.000+ 1.200+
A3 forecast solutions A3 5 25 30
Toolsgroup DPM (Distribution Planning Model) 4 42 43
Demantra Demand Planner 2 9 70
Demand Solutions DS Forecast Management 1 15 120
FuturMaster FuturMaster Forecasting 0 20 20
Inventory Management Associates IMA Visual Forecast 0 8 10
Syncra Systems Syncra Demand 01 41 78
Wizard Information Systems Investigator - - -
Vendors of functionalities broader than forecasting / demand planning alone
SAP SAP APO 450 19.000 29.000
Ross Systems Nederland iRenaissance SCM 40 200 450
Manugistics NetWORKS Demand 16 220 1.350
OM Partners Predicast 5 80 80
JDA Software Benelux Portfolio (E3) 1 300 1.600
Table 1: number of employees per forecasting / demand planning software vendor
1
These are only Syncra’s own employee numbers. In Europe the software is distributed by Real Software which has
1700 employees in total.
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Market leader in terms of the number of implementations is Business Forecast Systems (in the
Benelux their Forecast Pro solution is distributed by ATIM). Infolog is clearly number two with
their Slim4 solution. The middle-market in the Netherlands is dominated by the Forecast Pro,
Slim4, PlanCaster and VPS2000 solutions. The high-end market in the Netherlands is dominated
by the A3, MerciaLincs, Manugistics and SAP APO solutions.
The market for forecasting / demand planning software is largely international. The only Benelux
software vendors are Infolog, Scanmar, Quadriceps Products and OM Partners.
Number of implementations
Package Name NL EUR WW
Forecast Pro (Unlimited, XE) 235 Hundreds 10.000
Benelux
Slim4 120 140 148
A3 18 56 56
NetWORKS Demand 14 231 811
SAP APO 10 160 250
PlanCaster 10 12 12
MerciaLincs 8 220 350+
VPS2000 8 8 8
Portfolio (E3) 4 (100)1 (1000) (4000)
FuturMaster Forecasting 4 140 180
Demand Planner 4 26 125
Predicast 2 250 320
DPM (Distribution Planning Model) 1 145 152
IMA Visual Forecast 1 40 43
Syncra Demand 0 1 5
DS Forecast Management - 150 2100
Investigator - 125 200
iRenaissance SCM - - -
Table 2: number of implementations per forecasting / demand planning software package
1
JDA has 4 implementations of their E3 forecasting tool in the Netherlands, 10 implementations of their JDA retail
solution and 90 implementations of their Intactix category / space management solution.
With respect to the forecasting / demand planning market place we expect the following future
developments to occur:
• Specialized high-end forecasting / demand planning software vendors will become
squeezed between advancing ERP and APS software vendors and general business
margin requirements;
The traditional competitive advantage for specialized forecasting / demand planning soft-
ware vendors was their advanced functionality, their lower cost of ownership and their
ease of use. While the large ERP and APS software vendors are increasing their function-
alities for advanced forecasting / demand planning and are investing in user-friendly user
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interfaces the only competitive advantage that will be left is lower cost-of-ownership.
This will put (further) pressure on software prices for high-end forecasting / demand
planning tools. The mid-market forecasting / demand planning software vendors will ex-
perience limited threat from the large ERP and APS software vendors since we do not ex-
pect that the large ERP and APS software vendors will gain entry to the mid-market for
the foreseeable future.
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3.1 Overview
In the table below the total number of implementations per industry are mentioned for the
forecasting / demand planning software vendors that participated (from those who were willing to
provide this industry-specific data).
The wholesale industry is the most important industry in the Netherlands for forecasting / demand
planning tools and is followed by the consumer products and food & beverage industries. Within
Europe the situation is different because the most important industries for forecasting / demand
planning software are not only the consumer products and food & beverage industries but also the
industrial manufacturing and pharmaceutical & biotech industries.
In the table below you can see the number of implementations per package per industry. It is clear
that most software vendors do not focus on any specific industry but that they deliver their
solutions to all kinds of industries. There are a few exceptions though:
• A3 forecast solutions has most of its implementations in the consumer products industry.
They are known for their specific focus on the fashion industry.
• Infolog has a very high focus on the wholesale industry in the Netherlands.
• FuturMaster has a high number of implementations in the consumer products industry in
Europe.
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Inventory Management
A3 forecast solutions
Quadriceps Products
Demand Solutions
Finmatica Mercia
Syncra Systems
OM Partners
Manugistics
FuturMaster
Toolsgroup
Associates
Demantra
Scanmar
InfoLog
SAP
INDUSTRY
Consumer NL 2 4 16 1 3 2 1 7 1
Products EUR 1 1 4 50 1 37 10 1 34 22 95 35 60 5
NL 6 3 6 2 2 3 2
Food & Beverage EUR 3 6 91 8 12 44 19 10 13 10
NL 2 1 3
Retail EUR 3 21 2 2 15 2 2
Distribution NL
Industry EUR 11 26 3 2 2
NL 61 1 1
Wholesale EUR 69 1 7 16 1
NL 3 1
Energy & Utilities EUR 4 3
NL 1
Public Transport EUR
Industrial NL 8 1 2
Manufacturing EUR 11 14 5 5 24 138 1 1
NL 1 4 1 2 1
Automotive EUR 7 2 9 2 34 26 9 13 1
NL 5 2 1 2
High Tech EUR 8 1 13 5 19 15 2
Pharmaceuticals NL 2 1 1
/ Biotech EUR 2 17 2 8 48 16 20 50 12 3
NL 4 2 2 1
Chemicals EUR 9 12 29 30 9 3 11 1
Engineering & NL 2
Construction EUR 2 12 3
NL 1 20
Other Industries EUR 20 1 3 33 26 15 5 41 3
Table 4: number of implementations per forecasting / demand planning tool per industry
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4.1 Overview
We have asked the forecasting / demand planning software vendors for their top 3 competitors.
We also asked them which consultancies they mostly encountered during package selections and
implementations in the forecasting / demand planning market space (each vendor had the chance
to name three consultancies).
The well-known high-end software vendors like i2 Technologies, Manugistics and SAP APO are
considered the most important competitors by the forecasting / demand planning software
vendors.
Most large consultancies have been named by the software vendors when asked for consultancies
which were involved in forecasting / demand planning package selections. Cap Gemini Ernst &
Young (CGE&Y), PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC) and Atos KPMG were mentioned two times
each while the other consultancies were only mentioned once. Some smaller management
consultancies like S&V Management Consultants, KSA and Möbius where also mentioned.
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The list of consultancies is smaller regarding consultancies that are involved in forecasting /
demand planning package implementations. Again the large supply chain consultancies like
PWC, CGE&Y and Accenture were mentioned while also S&V Management Consultants, Atos
Origin, Aepex (a niche player focused on the SAP SCM solutions) and Magnus (only focused on
SAP solutions) were mentioned.
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5.1 Overview
We have asked all forecasting / demand planning software vendors what they thought were the
most important developments during the last three years. In this paragraph we will analyze these
most important developments.
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6.1 Overview
We have asked all forecasting / demand planning software vendors what they thought to be the
most important trends for the coming 3 years. In this paragraph we will analyze these trends.
The most important developments as mentioned by the forecasting / demand planning software
vendors are:
• Best-of-breed versus integration / incorporation into ERP and/or SCE systems;
Within the industry there is still a lot of discussion whether best-of-breed forecasting and
demand planning tools have the future or whether the leading ERP and/or SCE systems
will take over the forecasting / demand planning application area. We expect both to oc-
cur. We expect that ERP and/or SCE systems will be increasingly used in cases where
relatively easy forecasting / demand planning functionality is needed. However, in situa-
tions where more advanced forecasting / demand planning functionality is needed we ex-
pect that the best-of-breed tools will be used.
• Multi-tier inter-enterprise collaboration;
Most software vendors believe that multi-tier inter-enterprise collaboration will again be
one of the hot development areas for the next few years.
• Event and promotion planning and evaluation;
In consumer goods companies event and promotion planning and evaluation of an event
or promotion afterwards is the main difficulty in forecasting sales. Since the consumer
goods industry is an important customer of forecasting and demand planning tools and
since the forecasting and demand planning tools differ quite a lot in this area in terms of
functionality we expect that the software vendors who do not have comprehensive event
and promotions planning functionality will quickly add / expand this functionality in the
next few years.
• Integration of forecasting tools with retail point-of-sale (POS) data;
All leading retailers are moving to a business model where the point-of-sale (POS) data in
their retail outlets is direct input for their supply chain. These retailers also want to base
their forecasting and demand planning methodology on this POS-data. The forecasting /
demand planning software vendors which have a focus on the retail market will be adding
this functionality in the next few years.
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With respect to the future developments in the forecasting / demand planning market we expect
the following main future developments to occur:
• Real-time forecasting / demand planning;
Becoming adaptive is a key concept for tomorrow’s businesses. To become adaptive the
information systems used need to be able to react in real-time to events. For forecasting
and demand planning tools this means that they need to be able to adapt their sales fore-
cast on a real-time basis; for example based on real-time point-of-sale (POS) data in the
retail sector.
• Integration with supply chain visibility functionalities;
To be able to react in real-time on events, forecasting and demand planning tools need
real-time access to sales and supply chain data. This is where the integration with supply
chain visibility functionalities is needed. We have already seen leading companies having
real-time visibility over their worldwide supply chain (consisting of 1000+ outsourced
distribution centers where all actions are captured with RFID technology) and using this
real-time visibility in their optimization tools (f.e. forecasting and inventory manage-
ment).
• Integration with CRM systems;
Nowadays forecasting functionalities are present in dedicated forecasting tools, ERP sys-
tems, SCP systems and CRM systems. While we have already talked about the discus-
sions taking place over best-of-breed systems and integrated systems (ERP, SCP) we have
not talked yet about the forecasting functionality present in CRM systems. Most CRM
systems contain basic forecasting functionalities (mostly based on the concept that sales
employees forecast their customer and product sales manually) without analytical fore-
casting algorithms. Nowadays most large customers use both CRM and ERP systems and
some also use dedicated forecasting tools and consequently these customers have prob-
lems figuring out which tool to use for sales forecasting. We should also note that there
still is no good integration between CRM functionalities en ERP functionalities in the
leading ERP suites. We do expect that in the future more attention will be paid to inte-
grating the forecasting functionalities used in the leading CRM systems with the fore-
casting functionalities used in the leading dedicated forecasting tools, ERP systems and
SCP systems.
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7.1 Overview
We have asked the forecasting / demand planning software vendors for their competitive differ-
entiators. The following competitive differentiators have been named by multiple forecasting /
demand planning software vendors:
• Ease-of-use of solution;
Most dedicated forecasting / demand planning software vendors use this argument to dif-
ferentiate themselves from the large ERP and APS software vendors. The goal of most
vendors is to develop a forecasting / demand planning solution for which the users do not
need to have a statistical background.
• Short implementation period and fast return on investment (ROI);
Many dedicated forecasting / demand planning software vendors also use this as an argu-
ment to differentiate themselves from the large ERP and APS software vendors. The best-
of-breed versus integrated solution choice is basically a trade-off between the benefits of
integration with other supply chain functionality and the low cost, ease-of-use and more
advanced functionality of a best-of-breed forecasting solution.
• Demand classification / automatic best-pick forecasting method;
Highly automatic self-adaptive forecasting solutions are a key trend for the future. Some
software vendors already deliver forecasting solutions, which have demand classification
or best-pick functionalities. These functionalities allow the forecasting solution to auto-
matically select the best forecasting method and algorithm for a specific item. In this way
the forecasting solution is able to fully automatically generate the best sales forecasts
without manual intervention and expert statistical knowledge by the user.
• Scalability to handle large numbers of SKU’s;
Some of the dedicated forecasting / demand planning solution vendors differentiate them-
selves by their ability to handle situations with large numbers of SKU’s.
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8.1 Overview
We have asked each of the forecasting / demand planning software vendors whether they support
specific functionalities. In the paragraphs below you can find a functionality comparison based on
these answers. We have divided the forecasting functionalities into six different functionality
areas:
• Forecasting algorithms and methods
• Event and Promotion Management
• New Product Introduction
• Relationships between different SKU’s
• Forecast Accuracy Analysis
• Other functionalities
To facilitate the reading of the tables in the next paragraphs we have numbered each of the
software vendors.
Nr Software vendor
1 A3 forecast solutions
2 ATIM
3 Demand Solutions
4 Demantra
5 Finmatica Mercia
6 FuturMaster
7 InfoLog
8 Inventory Management Associates
9 Manugistics
10 OM Partners
11 Quadriceps Products
12 Ross Systems / Prescient Systems
13 SAP
14 Scanmar
15 Syncra Systems
16 Toolsgroup
17 Wizard Information Systems
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It is interesting to see how support for the different forecasting algorithms / methods differs
between the different forecasting and demand planning tools. Apparently the simple moving
average, exponential smoothing, multiple & linear regression, holt-winters and the best-fit
methods are supported by almost all forecasting solutions while the (specified) box-jenkins,
bayesian forecasting (EWMA) and the heidrich / prescott filter base volume methods are only
supported by a few forecasting solutions.
Only Demantra and Infolog support all forecasting algorithms / methods which are displayed in
the table below. Finmatica Mercia and the Toolsgroup have a very different forecasting approach
which does not use individual forecasting algorithms or methods but which focuses on matching
a specific distribution function to the historic sales data.
Algorithm / method 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Simple Moving Average Y Y Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
Exponential Smoothing Y Y y/n Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
(single, double, triple)
Box-Jenkins N Y N Y - N Y Y N N N N N N N - N
Discrete Distributions N Y N Y - Y Y Y N N N N Y Y N - N
Intermittent N Y N Y - Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N - N
Specified Smoothing Model Y Y N Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N N - Y
Specified Box-Jenkins N Y N Y - Y Y N N N N N N N N - N
Rules-based Forecasting Y Y N Y - N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N - N
Variable Response Smooth- N N N Y - Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N - N
ing
Bayesian Forecasting N Y N Y - N Y Y Y N N N N N N - N
(ARIMA)
Bayesian Forecasting N N N Y - N Y Y N N N N N N N - N
(EWMA)
Croston's y/n Y N Y - N Y N Y N N N Y N N - N
Periodicity N Y Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N - N
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In the table below you can find information on other supported forecasting algorithms / methods
and the forecasting approach used by each of the different forecasting solutions.
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Apparently all forecasting solutions support promotion and event management. Only A3 forecast
solutions, Scanmar, Toolsgroup, ATIM and Wizard Information Systems lack some support for
specific event and promotion management functionalities.
Functionalities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Promotion / event manage- Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y Y
ment
Promotion kits Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - N -
“Replacement” promotions N Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N -
Automatic analysis of the N Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N - Y Y
impact of historical
promotions based on a set of
algorithms (the user only has
to define if there was a
promotion / event and the
system will quantify the
impacts)
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All forecasting / demand planning solutions support functionalities for new product introduction.
Only A3 forecast solutions, ATIM and Wizard Information Systems do not fully support all listed
functionalities regarding new product introduction.
Functionalities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
New product introduction Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
can be handled by copying
the behavior and parameters
of a certain product into
another (new) product
Supersession is supported Y N - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
(link between phase-out of
old product and phase-in of
new product)
Supersession functionality y/n N - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
which allows you to
combine the data from
multiple products into a new
product is supported
At period end the history Y N - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N
from the predecessor can be
automatically copied to the
successor in case of
supersession
Table 15: support for new product introduction functionalities by the different forecasting solutions
All forecasting / demand planning solutions can cope with forecasting hierarchies which allow
multi-dimensional aggregations and re-conciliations. A3 forecast solutions is the only software
vendor which does not support cannibalization (f.e. sales of product A has a cannibalizing effect
on the sales of product B). Options and component forecasting (used in Build-To-Order (BTO) or
Configure-To-Order (CTO) environments) however is not supported by multiple software
vendors: A3 forecast solutions, ATIM, Quadriceps Products and Scanmar.
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Functionalities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Cannibalization N Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y Y
Options and component N N - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y N - Y
planning (BTO/CTO
forecasting)
Forecasting hierarchies Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
allowing multi-dimensional
aggregations / reconcilia-
tions
Table 16: support for different SKU relationships by the different forecasting solutions
Apparently forecast accuracy analysis is pretty well covered in today’s forecasting and demand
planning solutions. While some software vendors have indicated that specific reports need to be
developed during an implementation most software vendors already offer standard reports for
most standard forecast accuracy measures.
Availability of standard 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
reports for forecast
accuracy analysis
Forecast method analysis Y Y Y - - Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
Forecast accuracy Y Y Y - Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
Standard deviation forecast N Y Y - Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
error
Mean absolute error (MAD) Y Y Y - - Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
Root mean squared error N Y - - - Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y - N
(RMSE)
Mean squared error (MSE) Y N Y - - Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - N
Mean percent error (MPE) N N Y - - Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
Mean absolute % error N Y Y - - Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y
(MAPE)
WAPE by time period N N - - Y N - Y Y N Y Y Y N Y - N
(weighted absolute
percentage error by test
period)
Table 17: support for forecasting accuracy analysis by the different forecasting solutions
What-if scenario analysis can be done in all forecasting / demand planning solutions. Collabora-
tive forecasting however is not supported by A3 forecast solutions and Scanmar. ATIM is the
only software vendor that does not support financial forecasting. Telescopic buckets are not fully
supported by A3 forecast solutions, ATIM, Quadriceps Products and Wizard Information Sys-
tems.
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Functionalities 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
What-if scenario analysis Y Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Collaborative forecasting N Y - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y
A financial forecast can be Y N - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y - Y Y
calculated based on the unit
forecast, budgeted unit sales
prices and cost of sales
Telescopic buckets (starting y/n N - Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y N
with weeks, then months)
Table 18: support for different functionalities by the different forecasting solutions
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9 Cap Gemini Ernst & Young – Your partner in supply chain projects
9.1 Introduction
Cap Gemini Ernst & Young (CGE&Y) is the largest supply chain management consultancy in the
Benelux, Europe and worldwide. Within our worldwide organization we recognize the service
line B2B Supply Chain Management which contains the following service offerings:
• Sourcing and eProcurement
• Manufacturing and Operations
• Logistics and eFulfillment
• Supply Chain Strategy
• Demand and Supply Planning
• Product Lifecycle Management
• Asset Lifecycle Management
• B2B Marketplaces
Our package selection consultants all have multi-year experience with package selection projects.
They know the supply chain software market and know the main differentiators of each vendor.
All our package selection consultants use our award-winning ERNIE software selection tool. This
tool contains, among others, a detailed database on all the vendors present on the Dutch (and
European) market within specific software categories. We have ranked these vendors against
detailed critical functional requirements lists which we have developed based on our worldwide
experiences with package selections in these software categories.
For information regarding our package selection services and our supply chain services please
contact CGE&Y on +31 (0)30 689 8845 or through e-mail on
Logistiek&Informatiesystemen@cgey.nl.
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